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Steelers @ Browns
By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Today is Thursday which means it’s time for another Thursday Night Football article. We are already in Week 3 somehow, and I have a feeling that the rest of the season will fly by just as fast. I will be breaking down some predictions for the Steelers/Browns game tonight.
What To Watch For
I’m watching for how this Browns’ backfield will continue to shape up. Through two games, here is how their touch distribution has ended up.
- Nick Chubb ($12,200,000) – 19.5 rushes and 2.0 receptions per game
- Kareem Hunt ($6,000,000) – 12.0 rushes and 3.0 receptions per game
Both have had great success in the touchdown category although they haven’t scored in the same game yet. Hunt had two touchdowns in Week 1 while Chubb had three in Week 2. Tonight, I expect both to get one touchdown.
Value of the Game Recap
Last week I picked Mecole Hardman as my Value of the Game (VOTG). This ended up being an extremely hard projection. There were six players who all had very good games in terms of value. Allow me to breakdown each of their days and give you a look into how I determine the VOTG each week. First, let’s look at my Week 2 prediction.
| Week 2 Projection | Salary | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| Mecole Hardman | $1,248,763 | 2 | 66 | 1 | 14.6 |
As you know, here at Dynasty Owner our value metric is Dynasty Dollars per Fantasy Point (DD/FP). This is the best way we can determine how valuable a player is compared to other players with differing salaries. In order for a player to be the VOTG, they have to have the lowest DD/FP of any player in that game. Oftentimes, this doesn’t mean that player is startable or even rostered in most leagues. It just shows who the most efficient player is based on their current salary. If we look at the six most efficient players from last Thursday we see…
| Player | Team | Salary | Receptions | Total Yards | TDs | DOFP | DD/FP |
| Josh Palmer | LAC | $1,258,365 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 13.0 | $96,797 |
| Zander Horvath | LAC | $934,252 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7.1 | $131,585 |
| DeAndre Carter* | LAC | $1,135,000 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 10.0 | $113,500 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | $2,705,393 | 4 | 118 | 0 | 15.8 | $171,227 |
| Justin Watson | KC | $1,035,000 | 2 | 50 | 1 | 13.0 | $79,615 |
| Mecole Hardman | KC | $1,248,763 | 3 | 45 | 0 | 7.5 | $166,502 |
* DeAndre Carter also had 60 return yards not listed here, good for 1.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
My pick of Mecole Hardman did not hold up. In the end, Justin Watson earned the VOTG award. He finished the game with two receptions for 50 yards and a single touchdown. When a player is barely over $1,000,000 and gets a touchdown, they are almost automatically in the running for VOTG for that week.
Overall Record: 1-1
Starters
All the players on this list are ones who I would be very comfortable starting in Dynasty Owner this week.
Najee Harris ($3,261,862)
Here is the flow chart for Harris. Is he starting? If the answer is “yes”, you start him.
Nick Chubb ($12,200,000)
Kareem Hunt ($6,000,000)
I would be more than confident starting both Browns’ running backs this week. They both surpassed 17.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 1, and I expect both to surpass 15.0 points in this game. I would have hesitation about starting both of them in the same league as you would be limiting your upside, but it’s definitely possible.
Diontae Johnson ($1,070,241)
Pat Freiermuth ($1,507,045)
Both elite passing options for Pittsburgh QB Mitchell Trubisky ($7,100,000) should be started. I especially like Freiermuth’s chances of scoring this week.
Bench
Here at Dynasty Owner, you not only get points from your Starting lineup, but also from your Bench. Your Dynasty Owner teams get 25 percent of the points scored from players on your Bench added to the total final score. This means that Bench scoring could (and often does) affect the outcome of individual matches as well as championships. Here are the players I would be okay putting on my Bench.
Mitchell Trubisky ($7,100,000)
I’d be hesitant about starting him, but I have Mitchell as a textbook Bench quarterback (he should get between 15.0 and 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points).
Chase Claypool ($1,654,156)
Amari Cooper ($20,000,000)
Donovan Peoples-Jones ($870,402)
Here we have three lower tier wide receivers. Cooper is the safest start, but I don’t see much upside. Yes, it’s possible you could get a repeat of his Week 2 performance (9 receptions – 101 receiving yards – 1 TD for 25.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points), but I wouldn’t bet money on it. The other two could make you very happy with one big play. I tend to not gamble on big plays, so they can stay on my Bench this week.
David Njoku ($13,687,500)
Value of the Game
I’m not guaranteeing this pick, but I do feel very confident in it. I have Diontae Johnson winning the Week 3 Value of the Game. Why?
- He is the best wide receiver for the Steelers.
- He is the most trusted possession receiver for the Steelers.
- His salary is so low that just a 6 reception game or a single touchdown would likely win him this award alone.
I like this pick and have Diontae going over the 6 receptions mark and scoring the single touchdown.
| Week 3 Projection | Salary | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| Diontae Johnson | $1,070,241 | 7 | 70 | 1 | 20.0 |
The only other player in consideration was Browns WR Donovan Peoples-Jones. His salary of $870,402 is very enticing. However, the odds of Diontae having 25 percent more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than him is very likely. I picked Diontae in the end.
Don’t forget to check back in next week to see if my VOTG pick is correct. I wish all of you a great Week 3. Thank you all for reading. Take care and be safe.
TheJerk