TNF Week 4

Dolphins @ Bengals

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Dynasty Owners…we meet again for another Thursday Night Football preview article. After this week, we will be roughly a fourth of the way through the Dynasty Owner season. Last week, we had a tight game until the end. The Browns beat the Steelers by a score of 29 – 17.

I was impressed with both team’s running games. Najee Harris ($3,261,862) and Nick Chubb ($12,200,000) each had a rushing touchdown on the day. Dynasty Owners with Harris on their roster collectively sighed when the final play of the game registered a lost fumble for Harris. If you didn’t see the play, essentially the Steelers were playing the “lateral game” in a miracle attempt to march more than 90 yards down the field. Harris was the last player to possess the ball prior to the defense recovering. Therefore, he was charged with the lost fumble and minus three Dynasty Owner fantasy points (DOFP) to your score. In the end, Harris finished with 12.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Not terrible, but not week winning either.

What To Watch For

As we look towards Week 4, I’m watching the receivers for the Dolphins. Specifically, I want to watch how Tyreek Hill ($18,000,000) and Jaylen Waddle ($6,771,498) continue their rapport with Tua Tagovailoa ($7,589,859). This game has a favorable over/under of 47.5 points at the time of writing. Miami also comes in as the slight underdog. Look for Hill and Waddle to both surpass 14.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

Value of the Game Recap

In Week 3, I predicted that Diontae Johnson ($1,070,241) would be the Value of the Game with this stat line…

Week 3 ProjectionSalaryReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
Diontae Johnson$1,070,241770120.0

Diontae did indeed end up with the most efficient performance in this game.  My stat prediction was actually pretty close even though Johnson did not score a touchdown.

Week 3 ActualSalaryReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFPDD/FP
Diontae Johnson$1,070,241884016.4$65,259

Diontae was the dominant possession receiver that I predicted him to be. In a slow and low offense game, it was good to see him put up a solid day. 

Overall Record: 2-1

Starters

All the players on this list are ones who I would feel comfortable starting in Dynasty Owner this week.

Tua Tagovailoa ($7,568,859) [If he plays]

Joe Burrow ($9,047,534)

We have two top option quarterbacks with Tua and Burrow. Oddly enough, both are also great values considering their contracts. Start both with confidence.

Joe Mixon ($12,000,000)

Mixon is currently RB16 on the season. You have him and his $12,000,000 salary on your Dynasty Owner roster for a reason. Start him.

Jaylen Waddle ($6,771,498)

Tyreek Hill ($18,000,000)

Ja’Marr Chase ($7,704,910)

Tee Higgins ($2,171,696)

Here we have two pairs of teammate wide receivers. Waddle and Hill have blazed a trail early on this season. I wouldn’t doubt if all four of these players are in the Top 15 for wide receivers by the end of the season. 

Bench

Here at Dynasty Owner, you not only get points from your Starting lineup, but also from your Bench. Your Dynasty Owner teams get 25 percent of the points scored from players on your Bench added to the total final score. This means that Bench scoring could (and often does) affect the outcome of individual matches as well as championships. Here are the players I would be okay putting on my Bench.

Chase Edmonds ($6,050,000)

Raheem Mostert ($2,125,000)

The reason that neither of these Dolphins’ running backs is in a starting slot for me is because the other exists. I think that both could be decent starting Dynasty Owner options by themselves, but not together.

Tyler Boyd ($10,750,000)

Boyd had a superb Week 3 with 20.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. It’s not that he couldn’t repeat that in any week, but it will be tough to predict. I’d rather leave him on the Bench.

Mike Gesicki ($10,931,000)

Hayden Hurst ($3,500,000)

Finally, we have two low volume Bench tight ends. Both these fellas are touchdown dependent, and you’ll likely need one to feel good about their game.

Value of the Game

Today I will be doing something that I’ve never done for the Value of the Game (VOTG). As you probably have noticed, I don’t include kickers on my “Starters” or “Bench” list. It’s not that kickers don’t matter, it’s just that I rarely find the need to comment on a kicker’s productivity. Well today that changes. I am picking Evan McPherson as my VOTG.

Week 4 ProjectionSalaryFG AttemptsFGs MadePATsDOFP
Evan McPherson$955,92844214.0

I have McPherson attempting four field goals and making all four. In addition, he will make both extra points he attempts in this game. I have him at 14.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. With his salary being under $1 million, this should be enough to make him the Week 4 Value of the Game.

The only other player I considered was Tee Higgins, but his salary is just too high to justify that pick.

Thank you all for reading.  Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

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