wEEK2 NFL

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

A .500 record is the goal for 16 NFL teams and countless Dynasty Owner teams after Week 1. Scratch that, as it’s a goal for only 15 NFL teams this year thanks to the Colts-Texans 20-20 tie last week. In almost every other NFL season when they’ve had an even number of teams (remember from 1999 to 2001, the NFL had 31 teams and apparently back at some point in the 1960s they had an odd number of teams as well), half (50%) of teams had that goal coming into Week 2.

It’s the same thing in Dynasty Owner as half of our teams are trying to achieve a .500 record and half are trying to avoid it. There are no ties in Dynasty Owner as we have a tiebreaker if somehow your weekly match-up ends in a tie. The winner of a tie game is the team who has the most points from the players in their Starting lineup. How many of you knew that? I’ll be honest and say that I didn’t think we had ties, but also that I needed to check the Constitution to be sure. It’s at the top of page 20 if you’re wondering.

It’s possible that every team in your Dynasty Owner league will be tied at 1-1 at the end of this week. It’s also possible that everyone will be .500 with 2-2 records at the end of four weeks, but far more unlikely. Everybody likes to say how everyone is 0-0 and tied for first before Week 1, but almost nobody talks about the possibility of it happening in Week 3. It would take all of the 1-0 teams to be playing all of the 0-1 teams and for the losing teams from Week 1 to win. Go to My League, then Standings in the dropdown menu to see everyone’s record in your league. Then go to My League and Schedule & Matchup to see who everyone is playing this week. Let me know on Twitter (@SteveVT33) if this is the situation in your league currently and if having all 12 teams at 1-1 actually happens. In my non-Dynasty Owner home league, we have 3 divisions with 4 teams. In every division, the two 1-0 teams are playing each other, and the two 0-1 teams are playing each other. That seems highly unlikely as well, but it’s happening.

My NFL weekly picks are also .500 as I went 8-8 in Week 1. That sounds terrible, but based on point spreads, there were at least seven upsets in Week 1 (Chicago, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, New York Giants, Minnesota, Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle) plus the Indianapolis tie which counts as a loss. I had three upset picks correct (Bears, Vikings and the Chargers), but the Rams over the Bills, the Patriots over the Dolphins and the Cardinals over the Chiefs didn’t work out. I also picked five favorites who didn’t win (Bengals, Panthers, Tennessee, Denver, and Indianapolis). That better improve in Week 2.

Finally, we also have a Match-up of the Week that is expected to be so close that the Win Probabilities on Thursday afternoon were at exactly 50% for each team. The projections changed a few minutes later and changed again after the Thursday night game, but they were 50-50 for a while. The Win Probability will also change based on whether or not either Dynasty Owner makes a change to their Starting lineup or Bench. Regardless, the Match-up of the Week should be a close one and whoever loses will have a .500 record at 1-1.

Thanks for reading my weekly preview article and for being a Dynasty Owner. If you were a Dynasty Owner last year, thanks for coming back this year. For those of you first-time Dynasty Owners, or if it’s just your first time reading my preview article, here’s what to expect.

Every week of the 14-game Dynasty Owner regular season and three game playoffs, I’ll present a player at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) who you should have as a Starter in your Dynasty Owner lineup. These won’t be the obvious choices. No recommendations to go ahead and start Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor, Cooper Kupp, or Mark Andrews. Those guys are cemented in your Starting lineup unless something bad happens, or they are on bye. Players who are rostered in 100% (or nearly 100%) of Dynasty Owner leagues with low ADPs won’t be mentioned either. Nope, I’m going to recommend you Start players who were drafted to be on your Bench or Practice Squad. Think about the players who aren’t on a roster in every Dynasty Owner league or have high ADPs and could be found after the 15th round in a typical Dynasty Owner startup draft.

After that, I’ll name one player per position who should be on your Bench or Practice Squad. For these Bench recommendations, it’s just the opposite. I’ll suggest players drafted early in Dynasty Owner startup drafts to be Starters with the low ADP to prove it. However, they shouldn’t be in your Starting lineup for the week based on matchups, past performance against a team or something else.

All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner roster percentage statistics were current as of the morning of Friday, September 16th.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

Starting this week, I’ll always take a look at how my recommendations from the previous week fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok). I predicted performances worthy of being in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup for these four players in Week 1. Here’s how each recommendation did:

QB: Matt Ryan ($30,000,000) – 16.8 (Bad recommendation)

RB: Michael Carter ($1,071,842) – 17.0 (Good recommendation)

WR: Russell Gage ($10,000,000) – 3.3 (Bad recommendation)

TE: Austin Hooper ($6,000,000) – 1.6 (Bad recommendation)

Not the type of start that I was hoping for this season. All three of the former Falcons in my Starting lineup recommendations had Bad weeks. Even though he had 16.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, Matt Ryan was the 23rd ranked QB in Dynasty Owner for the week, which barely made him a Bench QB. Both Russell Gage (3.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) and Austin Hooper (1.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) produced little with Hooper finishing as the third best TE for Tennessee, with fewer points than both Geoff Swaim ($3,500,000) and rookie fourth round draft pick Chigoziem Okonkwo ($1,041,085). Only Michael Carter pulled through for me as he was the 16th ranked RB for the week, ahead of his teammate Breece Hall who’s salary is over twice as much ($2,253,694) but had only a little over half as many points (9.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points).

Not a great start to the 2022 Starting lineup recommendations. Hopefully, I can do better in Week 2 with the following recommendations.

Marcus Mariota (QB – ATL): The first recommendation is another Falcon, but at least this time, it’s a current Falcons player. I strongly believe that the Rams are going to bounce back and beat the Falcons pretty good this week. At the same time, they will allow Marcus Mariota ($9,375,000) to score a lot of Dynasty Owner fantasy points and end up as one of the top QBs for the week. Four out of the Top 12 QBs in Week 1 played for teams that lost and the QB of the team that lost by the most points was Kyler Murray ($8,914,504) who finished as QB10 with 25.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Murray had two passing TDs in the fourth quarter when Arizona was down by 30 points and I can see this happening for Mariota and the Falcons this week against the Rams.

The Rams allowed another running QB, Josh Allen ($43,005,667), to be his team’s leading rusher with 56 yards and a TD. Allen also threw for 3 TDs to go with 2 INTs for 38.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Mariota won’t have nearly that many points, but all he needs to do is add a TD pass to his 19.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points from Week 1 (215 passing yards, 72 rushing yards, 1 TD and 2 fumbles – 1 lost). Just one passing TD would have given Mariota 25.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and made him the QB9 for Week 1 and a Good recommendation. Lots of rushing yards plus a late TD with the Falcons down by double digits and a top 12 QB finish for Week 2 is my prediction for Mariota so put him in your Starting lineup.

Samaje Perine (RB – CIN): Originally, this was going to be Jeffery Wilson ($1,085,000), but then I decided Wilson really doesn’t qualify here. Sure, his Dynasty Owner startup ADP was 261.8 and he finished as the RB78 in Dynasty Owner last year with an average of 5.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game (52.5 points in 9 games). However, he’s subbing for the injured Elijah Mitchell ($915,892) in the San Francisco offense, so most Dynasty Owners are finding a way to have Wilson in their Starting lineup.

That’s ok as I think Samaje Perine ($1,650,000) is a more than adequate replacement Week 2 recommendation. The Bengals should handily defeat the Dallas Cowboys (sorry Tim Scrom) and that will give Perine a bunch of fourth quarter garbage time rushing attempts and yards to go along with his third down snaps in the early portion of the game. Last week, Perine had 6.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points with only one rushing attempt for 4 yards. That will definitely increase if he is the RB for the Bengals getting those fourth quarter snaps on offense.

I’m sure a lot of Dynasty Owners with Perine on their roster have him purely as a handcuff for Joe Mixon ($12,000,000). That’s totally fine, as this is an opportunity to start both of them. Mixon is likely your RB1 and Perine can fit nicely in your Starting lineup at the FLEX position.

A.J. Green (WR – ARI): Based on Week 1, the Arizona WR who I should have here is Greg Dortch ($895,000), but since he’s the WR33 on the season so far with 13.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, he’s off the board. That’s not true as he was rostered in far less than five percent of Dynasty Owner leagues before his big Week 1 performance. Instead of Dortch, I’ll go with A.J. Green ($3,500,000) to have a big game for the Cardinals.

Week 1 was effectively a pre-season game for Green as he didn’t play a snap during the NFL pre-season this year. Last year, the Cardinals only played two pre-season games and he had one target, so I’m guessing he didn’t play much pre-season football last season either. Last year, he started slowly with only 4.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (2 receptions for 25 receiving yards). In Weeks 2-4, he ripped off three consecutive double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy point games with an average of 15.8 points per game.

This year, Green only had 3.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (2 receptions for 13 receiving yards) in Week 1, but he gets to face a Raiders defense that allowed WRs to catch 12 passes for 145 receiving yards and a TD from Justin Herbert ($6,644,688) last week. Not all of the passes to WRs will be caught by Green this week, but I would expect Kyler Murray to target his WRs more than Herbert did since he was without Keenan Allen ($20,025,000) for most of the game. Expect Green and the Arizona offense to play much better in Week 2 than they did in Week 1 and get Green into your Starting lineup.

Brevin Jordan (TE – HOU): Let’s give it another try with picking a player facing a team that should struggle to contain TEs. Last week, I picked Tennessee TE Austin Hooper and while he only had 1.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, the Tennessee TEs as a whole were Just Ok with 5 receptions for 36 receiving yards (and -4 rushing yards) for a total of 8.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

This week, there is a week of NFL action to study and looking at how the Denver Broncos’ defense struggled to contain the Seattle Seahawks TEs (8 receptions, 102 receiving yards, 2 TDs), I’m optimistic that the same thing will happen in Week 2. Top Seattle TE Noah Fant ($3,147,680) actually had the worst week with just 4.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (3 receptions for 16 receiving yards). Instead, it was Will Dissly ($8,000,000) and Colby Parkinson ($991,360) who each had a TD score.

Why am I picking Brevin Jordan ($958,046) who only had 1.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (1 reception for 5 yards) over O.J. Howard ($1,035,000) who had 17.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (2 receptions, 38 receiving yards, 2 TDs)? Besides the obvious reason that Jordan went to the University of Miami, just as I did. Jordan played more snaps in Week 1 than Howard (42 to 12) and while some may say that Howard is bound to get more snaps in Week 2, do we know that for sure? Even if he does, he’s unlikely to catch a TD pass on one out of six snaps he plays. Jordan will likely play more and have more opportunities against a defense that was very bad against some not so great pass catching TEs in Week 1.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Now it’s the time to look at how my Bench recommendations from Week 1 worked out (Good, Bad or Just Ok). In every year, my Bench recommendations have been better than my Starting lineup recommendation. Let’s see if that trend extended into the 2022 season:

QB: Aaron Rodgers ($33,500,000) – 3.6 (Good recommendation)

RB: Travis Etienne ($3,224,526) – 7.5 (Good recommendation)

WR: Keenan Allen ($20,025,000) – 10.6 (Good recommendation)

TE: Darren Waller ($7,450,000) – 11.9 (Bad recommendation)

In contrast to the Starting lineup recommendations, this was a strong start for me in recommending Dynasty Owner Bench players. Three out of four Bench recommendations were Good, and two players even had less than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. The best Bench recommendation was easily picking Aaron Rodgers to start slowly for the second year in a row. He complied by only scoring 3.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Travis Etienne only had six touches on offense for Jacksonville and managed just 7.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to rank as the 44th best RB for Week 1. Keenan Allen had a similar ranking among WRs (45th best for the week), but scored more Dynasty Owner fantasy points with 10.6. He likely would have done better but for the hamstring injury he suffered in the first half. The only Bad recommendation was Darren Waller who had the most points out of the four Bench recommendations with 11.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to finish as the TE9 for the week. With an eye on continuing to make more Good than Bad Bench recommendations, here are four players to keep on your Bench (or Practice Squad) for Week 2.

Tom Brady (QB – TB): For the sixth time, I’m putting the G.O.A.T. ($15,000,000) in here and telling you to Bench him. Despite being 45-years old now, he was the ninth QB taken on average in Dynasty Owner start-up drafts (ADP 57.0). Last year, the 44-year old was the QB1 in Dynasty Owner with 521.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 17 games (30.7 points per game). In the previous five Bench recommendation games, he has exceeded 30.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points three times and scored 20.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points once for a Just Ok recommendation. Back in Week 9 of 2020, he scored only 1.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against his opponent this week, the New Orleans Saints.

Since the Buccaneers are playing the Saints again, it’s time for Marshon Lattimore to shadow Mike Evans ($16,500,000) and for the other Buccaneers’ receivers to step up. Unfortunately for Brady, he’ll be missing Chris Godwin ($20,000,000) and possibly some of his other WRs as almost all of them didn’t practice on Thursday. In three of Brady’s four games against New Orleans in a Tampa Bay uniform, Godwin was the Buccaneers leading receiver. How will the G.O.A.T. do without one of his top him?

My guess is not great as Russell Gage ($10,000,000), Julio Jones ($6,000,000) and Cameron Brate ($6,800,000) are not as good as the guys they are replacing (Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski). The G.O.A.T. will likely struggle and Tampa Bay will lean on Leonard Fournette ($7,000,000) and the running game this week after the Saints allowed 201 yards rushing last week. Go ahead and leave the G.O.A.T.  on your Bench this week.

Najee Harris (RB – PIT): This pick isn’t just because it’s something that I want to happen. It really has some decent facts and analysis as well as a hunch that Najee Harris’ ($3,261,862) foot injury may be more than he and the Steelers are letting on. Let’s face it, foot injuries sound bad if you’re a NFL running back. Cue the Bat-Signal to get Dr. Cousin Justin on to discuss this next week.

For now, we’ll just look at the facts and the facts show us that Harris only had 10.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 1 (23 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 3 receiving yards, 1 TD). That’s low, but his 2.3 yards per carry (10 rushes for 23 yards) is more concerning than the Dynasty Owner fantasy points. It was the second lowest in his career and his 26 yards of total offense ties for the worst game in his career (both came in Week 15 last year vs. Tennessee).

In addition, the Patriots defense did a good job in Week 1 of stifling the Miami Dolphins running game to the tune of allowing only 65 yards on 23 rushing attempts (2.8 yards per carry). If you just look at the Dolphins top two RBs, Chase Edmonds ($6,050,000) and Raheem Mostert ($2,125,000), it looks worse as they combined for just 41 yards on 17 rushing attempts (2.4 yards per carry). Harris is better than both Edmonds and Mostert, but if he’s playing hurt, he might not play better. It’s difficult to recommend putting your first round Dynasty Owner draft pick (ADP 4.3 in 2022 and 6.8 in 2021) on the Bench, but that’s what I’m doing here.

Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL): With 13.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last week (2 receptions, 59 receiving yards, 1 TD), Rashod Bateman ($3,149,853) is doing a little better than my prediction for him, but worse than those bullish on him. With 59 receiving yards in Week 1, he is right on pace for a 1,000 yard season. Obviously that’s reading a lot into one week, but the point is that Bateman did well and should have been a FLEX for your Dynasty Owner team, but not quite as well as expected (63.8 ADP and 20th WR drafted on average).

Unfortunately, Bateman will have to contend with Dolphins star cornerback Xavien Howard this week (at least according to ESPN’s Mike Clay in his Week 2 Shadow Report). Rhodes did shadow his former teammate Davante Parker ($7,625,000) last week and held the new Patriots receiver to just one reception for nine yards (1.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points).

Fortunately for Bateman, he doesn’t have Matt Patricia as his Senior Football Adviser/Offensive Line and de facto “Offensive Coordinator”, so he’ll likely do better than Parker did in Week 1, but still not good enough to have in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup.

Dalton Schultz (TE – DAL): This is not a knock on Dalton Schultz ($10,931,000) or his talent, it’s just a honest look at his performance with and without Dak Prescott ($40,000,000) at QB. Schultz is averaging 12.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game with Dak Prescott at QB since 2020 (22 games) versus 8.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game with someone else at QB (12 games). Effectively, the difference between being a Starting TE vs. a top-end Bench TE.

Furthermore, in three-quarters of the games (9 out of 12) that Schultz has played without Prescott, he has scored less than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points compared to just over one-third (36%) of games with Prescott (8 out of 22). Schultz also has a much better TD rate (10 TDs in 22 games) with Prescott than without him (only 2 TDs in 12 games).

As you likely know, Prescott injured his finger in the game last week against Tampa Bay and the Cowboys starting QB this week will be Cooper Rush ($977,500). In the single game that Cooper Rush started last year (Week 8 at Minnesota), he had 26.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. In that game, Schultz only had 3.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (2 receptions for 11 receiving yards). He was targeted 7 times, but that was still fewer times than either Amari Cooper (13) or CeeDee Lamb (8). Count me in as worried about Schultz’s viability as a no-doubt every week Starting TE with Dak out and put him on your Bench this week.

Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week – The Oracle 🙌 vs. Fire Breathing Rubber Duckies

One week down and 16 to go in the Dynasty Owner season. Week 1 was quite an upset with 2021 Chase for the Ring winner SKOL Vikings going down to defeat to Scubon1c Plagu3 in League #31927. Anytime the defending champion loses it’s an upset, but nobody can say an upset happened regardless of who wins our Week 2 Match-up of the Week.

That’s because the Win Probability for the Match-up of the Week was orange, not red or green. Before one of the beta users goes and reports a bug, the reason for the orange color is as that we have a 50-50 game on our hands between The Oracle 🙌 and the Fire Breathing Rubber Duckies in League #31917.

While the Win Probability says 50-50, the team who recommended this game as the Match-up of the Week, The Oracle 🙌 really has the advantage by 0.57 points. To demonstrate how evenly matched up these teams are, how good both teams are and to back up the claim from The Oracle 🙌 that “I feel like this is a preview of the league championship!”, here’s some info about the teams and owners:

  • Fire Breathing Rubber Duckies are in first place in the league with 188.03 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, while The Oracle 🙌 is in second place with 165.83 points.
  • Both teams were in the Top 200 in the Chase for the Ring after Week 1 as The Oracle 🙌 had fewer points and was in 197th place. Fire Breathing Rubber Duckies currently sit in 126th place after the Thursday Night game and were likely higher than that after Week 1.
  • The Fire Breathing Rubber Duckies drafted their team in this league and have won 10 games in each of the first two seasons. No Championships, but they finished third in 2020 and second in 2021, so the trendline looks good.
  • Finally, you know that The Oracle 🙌 is a good Dynasty Owner because another one of his teams beat my Vantastics team in Week 1 by a score of 121.42 to 112.0 in the D.O. Podcast League #1. He also said that he won a Championship in another Dynasty Owner league last season.

After the Thursday Night Football game, The Oracle 🙌 has a slight lead (18.4 to 10.1) as Austin Ekeler outscored Travis Kelce and has expanded their projected victory margin to 7.75 points. As we saw last week, it’s still anybody’s Match-up to win and likely be the team sitting in first place in this league after two weeks.

Conclusion

There will be a lot of 1-1 teams with a .500 record in both the NFL and Dynasty Owner after Week 2, including one of the two teams in our Match-up of the Week. It won’t be either the Colts or Texans in the NFL, but there will be more than a couple with the Chargers already there after their loss to the Chiefs on Thursday night. I’ve got more Dynasty Owner teams that I’m hoping to reach the .500 mark than teams that I’m working hard to prevent from getting there. Hope you’re in the opposite situation everywhere you play fantasy football.

Please read this weekly preview article each and every week to see my recommendations for who should be in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup, who should be on your Bench, and to find out which teams are featured in the Match-up of the Week. In addition to this weekly recap article, Dynasty Owner has plenty of other great content to help you win your League Championship and maybe become our 2022 Chase for the Ring Champion. Our 2022 in-season publication schedule is as follows:

  • Mondays: Jay Pounds will preview the Monday Night Football matchup from the Dynasty Owner perspective. Monday is also when the Champions podcast will be released on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts.
  • Tuesdays: Jay Pounds is back with his weekly Free Agent Auction targets article to help you figure out what players to bid on before the first Free Agent Auction run of the week is processed on Wednesday at 5 AM (Eastern).
  • Wednesday: Matt Morrison – The Jerk writes about a topic of his choosing and his weekly rankings will also pop up on Wednesdays as well.
  • Thursday: Matt Morrison – The Jerk will preview the Thursday Night Football game, which will include his selection for “Value of the Game”.
  • Friday: Listen to the Dynasty Owner podcast with me and Jay or watch it on YouTube on Friday morning. Then in the afternoon, it’s time for me to preview the Sunday and Monday games and look into one Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week in my weekly preview article. Next week, we should  have even more content with an article from Nate Christian highlighting some of the college players that he’s watching for the 2023 NFL Draft.

Please read all of our articles, listen to the podcasts and watch the Livestream on Wednesdays at 4 PM or afterwards if you can’t catch us live. Don’t forget to follow Dynasty Owner on Twitter as well. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

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