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Bears at Patriots
By: Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl)
Dynasty Owners! Welcome to the end of what I like to call “make it or break it” week. Week 7 tends to smack Dynasty Owners in the face every season and this year is no different. Those of you who were sitting at 3-3 or, even worse, 2-4 with a projected win this week only to lose are now going to have to make some moves and be realistic about where your roster is heading. If you need any advice, feel free to contact me via The Elon Musk Machine (aka Twitter).
What to Watch For
I have three major things I will be watching for in tonight’s game. The first and most important is the quarterback position for the Patriots. Mac Jones ($3,896,588) is slated to start after three solid performances from rookie backup Bailey Zappe ($1,076,768). Will Belichick stick with a struggling Mac Jones, or will he give him the boot the same way he did old Drew Bledsoe in the year 2001. The second big thing I am looking at on the Patriots’ side of the ball is how the running back position continues to play out. Rhamondre Stevenson ($1,057,264) has been playing out of his mind this season and has earned a featured back role, but this is Bill Belichick we are talking about, and he does crazy stuff no one expects all the time. On the Bears’ side of the ball, I will be watching the offense as a whole as they have looked bad the majority of the season. In my opinion, Justin Fields ($4,717,989) has played well given the team he has around him. I am looking forward to seeing him go against a coach like Belichick on a Prime Time stage.
Jay’s Monday Night Prediction
I am expecting the normal Patriots vs. a young quarterback game, meaning the Bears are in for a very long night. I love Fields and despite the lack of production this season, I still believe he is a quality NFL quarterback in a bad situation. Look for the Patriots to have a few methodical drives, eat the clock, and play great defense in a win.
Over/Under Projections – Bears
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| Justin Fields | QB | $4,717,989 | 15.7 | Over |
As much as I love the former Buckeye, I don’t see a huge night for him by any means. I do see him throwing for a touchdown and doing just enough on the ground to go over his projected point total.
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| David Montgomery | RB | $1,003,845 | 11.5 | Over |
The Bears’ offense starts on the ground and David Montgomery is a big part of that. If the Bears want any chance at winning, Monty must be involved in the passing game which will also help him hit the over.
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| Darnell Mooney | WR | $894,263 | 10.2 | Under |
It really sucks seeing Mooney struggle the way he has throughout the season as I thought he would be the one to help Fields take the next step. It’s a big difference when you’re the number 2 guy vs. getting double teamed every play as the number 1 receiver. Under for Mooney.
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | WR | $965,000 | 3.1 | Over |
I always find it so hard to predict the under for a player with such a low point total. It just feels disrespectful to take the under. St. Brown has been good enough this season that Fields will get him involved at least a few times throughout the game. Gimme the Over!
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| Cole Kmet | TE | $1,894,444 | 4.7 | Over |
Cole Kmet has struggled this season, but then again so has most of the Bears’ offense. I still like the talent of Kmet and will go with the over in tonight’s matchup, but I don’t see him going over by much.
Over/Under Projections – Patriots
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| Mac Jones | QB | $3,896,588 | 18.8 | Under |
Mac is back! I am very curious to see what would happen if Mac Jones came out and laid an egg. Would the Pats go back to Zappe quickly? I am not sure, but I picked the under to see if we can get the law of attraction going.
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | $1,057,264 | 13.6 | Over |
Stevenson has been on an absolute tear and while the Bears have a good defense, I don’t see it stopping the second year running back. An easy over for Stevenson based on how many touches he will get tonight.
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| DeVante Parker | WR | $7,625,000 | 8.5 | Over |
I know there is always a worry that Parker will come out and post a dud, but I don’t see it happening with Jones back. Parker seems like the perfect fit alongside Jones, and I will be watching to see how the pair gels with Mac back.
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | $3,986,000 | 12.7 | Under |
Jakobi Meyers has produced pretty well when healthy this season and I don’t think that changes tonight, though I don’t see Meyers doing enough to hit the over. Look for Meyers to finish in the 9 – 11 Dynasty Owner fantasy point range.
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| Hunter Henry | TE | $12,500,000 | 8.3 | Over |
I have Hunter Henry hitting the over tonight and I have that based off the expectation that he will catch a touchdown. If that doesn’t happen, this projection will be wrong.
Dynasty Owner Games of the Week
Every week, I will pick at least one Dynasty Owner game that is close in score and will be decided during Monday Night Football. If you happen to find yourself in this situation on Sunday night, please get ahold of me on Twitter (@jaypoundsnfl) and I will gladly feature your game here.
Before jumping into the Games of the Week, I would like to take a moment to thank Rudy (Dynasty Trade School DTS) for letting me know about a close matchup in our first game. Also, Rudy, congrats on being the current leader in the Chase for the Ring!
Game 1 – League #28281
Senior AAA Whale sh!t – Tyquan Thornton on Bench left to play
God of Thunder – Nick Folk in Starting lineup and Cairo Santos on Bench left to play
My word did Rudy deliver one hell of a matchup for us! Kickers, Bench players, and a Chase for the Ring contender (Senior AAA Whale sh!t is currently in 20th place), it doesn’t get much better than this when playing Dynasty Owner. After looking into the matchup, I have no idea who to pick as the winner, but I will go with the upset on this one and give God of Thunder the win. Sorry Whale Sh!t, it is nothing personal. I just do not want to piss anyone off with the name God of Thunder. Good luck to both of you and thank you for the fantastic matchup!
Game 2 – League #34662
juan blanco – Rhamondre Stevenson in Starting lineup left to play
Jimtown Buccaneers – Hunter Henry in Starting lineup and Mac Jones on Bench left to play
In our second Game of the Week, we have a true David vs. Goliath matchup with Juan Blanco sitting at 5-1, while the Jimtown Buccaneers are winless on the season. A little luck and all of that could change tonight. Now for the bad news, I am projecting Stevenson to have a big game meaning Jimtown will not get the win if things go according to my predictions. As most of you gathered from the statement above, juan blanco will be the winner in this matchup. Good luck to both of you and for Jimtown’s sake, I hope I am wrong. We all deserve at least one win!
Value of the Game Recap
| Week 6 Projected | Rushing Attempts | Rushing Yards | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| Mike Boone | 13 | 84 | 4 | 48 | 1 | 23.2 |
| Week 6 Actual | Rushing Attempts | Rushing Yards | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Week 6 Winner | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs | DOFP | Salary | DD/PT |
| Joshua Palmer | 9 | 57 | 0 | 14.7 | $1,258,365 | $85,603 |
I hate missing these picks more than anything and unfortunately, I suffered another defeat this week. I am ok with the process I had in coming up with my Value of the Game prediction. In the end, Nathaniel Hackett threw a curveball at me. though I think I am ok being on the wrong end of a Hackett curveball. I expected Mike Boone to be the lead back with Melvin Gordon ($2,500,000) banged up and instead it was Latavius Murray ($1,120,000) who saw the bulk of the snaps for the Broncos. Had Boone played more I feel confident he would have produced. The other player I considered; Josh Palmer was last week’s Value of the Game making my miss all the more painful. I will NEVER trust Hackett again and I blame myself for doing so in the first place. Lesson learned!
Overall Record: 3-3
Value of the Game
Week 7 Winner – Rhamondre Stevenson
| Week 6 Projected | Rushing Attempts | Rushing Yards | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 18 | 106 | 4 | 28 | 1 | 25.4 |
As I mentioned earlier, Stevenson has been playing lights out and if we were to take away the first two weeks of the season, I am sure he would be a top 5 running back in Dynasty Owner. If Stevenson is able to continue his tear this will be an easy pick, but he is not without tough competition. Outside of Stevenson there are three other players with extremely low salaries in this game, making it somewhat of a crapshoot if things don’t go well for the Patriots. The other players up for consideration were David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney, and Equanimeous St. Brown. All three players have shown themselves as capable of being the Value of the Game this season and will cause me to sweat while watching tonight.
Be sure to check out all our upcoming content this season. We will have several articles, podcasts, and the Livestream on Wednesday at 4 PM (Eastern) for everyone each week. Thank you all for reading and I hope your teams killed it this week. Stay safe out there and good luck on your 2022 Chase for the Ring!