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Colts @ Broncos
By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Four weeks down, and fourteen more to go. Today, we have a Thursday Night Football game that is projected to be low scoring, or at least more low scoring than the more recent games. The Indianapolis Colts will travel to Denver to play the Broncos. Neither team has been able to show off their team’s full offensive potential. That is likely the main reason for the low Over/Under. That and because both team’s starting running backs will not be playing in this game. The Over/Under line is currently set at 42 points. In addition, Denver is a 3.5 point home favorite. Usually, Vegas odds give roughly a three point advantage to the home team so taking that factor out, this should be a fairly close game. Here is what I’m watching for in this game.
What To Watch For
Before Jonathan Taylor ($1,957,287) was ruled out for the game with an ankle injury, I liked this game for him as his first big breakout game of the season. He has been above average and is the RB21, but I bet that most of his Dynasty Owners are not happy with his production based on the draft capital or trade assets it took to acquire him.
Since I believe that the Denver defense can be exploited and that the Colts’ game plan will exploit it, I’m watching how Nyheim Hines ($6,200,000) plays in place of Taylor as the Colts’ starting RB. Hines is obviously not the player that Taylor is, but the same rationale can be transferred to him, so I expect a solid game from Hines, especially in the passing game.
Value of the Game Recap
Last week I looked outside the box and picked a kicker as my Value of the Game (VOTG) for the first time ever. I was so close with this prediction for Bengals kicker Evan McPherson ($955,928) versus his actual stat line.
| Week 4 Projection | Salary | FG Attempts | FGs Made | PATs | DOFP |
| Evan McPherson | $955,928 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 14.0 |
| Week 4 Actual | Salary | FG Attempts | FGs Made | PATs | DOFP | DD/PT |
| Evan McPherson | $955,928 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10.0 | $95,593 |
In the end, Tee Higgins ($2,171,696) was the VOTG. He had a phenomenal game of seven receptions, 124 yards and one touchdown (25.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. This was good enough to barely beat out McPherson in terms of Dynasty Dollars per Fantasy Point (DD/PT) by a little over $10,000.
| Week 4 Actual | Salary | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs | DOFP | DD/FP |
| Tee Higgins | $2,171,696 | 7 | 124 | 1 | 25.4 | $85,500 |
I’ll take a 2-2 record into Week 5.
Overall Record: 2-2
Starters
All the players on this list are ones who I would feel comfortable starting in Dynasty Owner this week.
Russell Wilson ($35,000,000)
As a fellow Dynasty Owner with Russ, I hate the start to his season as well. If you ask me though, you should just keep throwing him out there in your Starting lineup. Preferably, you have a better quarterback you can slide into the Starting lineup, but if you don’t, hopefully, he gets on track this week.
Nyheim Hines ($6,200,000)
Melvin Gordon ($2,500,000)
Here we have two backup running backs. Or at least they were up until this week. Nyheim Hines has been the pass-catching back for Indianapolis. Melvin Gordon has really just split work with Javonte Williams ($2,216,438). I like both of these running backs in the Starting lineup this week now that the lead backs are both out. I especially like Gordon as a season-long start with Williams out for the season.
Michael Pittman ($2,153,212)
Courtland Sutton ($15,200,000)
Jerry Jeudy ($3,798,243)
Finally, we have three young receivers. If I had to rank them in order for this game, I’d put them in the exact order I presented them. Pittman, Sutton, Jeudy. Pittman is the alpha receiver for the Colts, and that position is solidly locked in. While I have Sutton as the alpha receiver in Denver, it is much more dubious. Sutton has looked better and has shown more early-season chemistry with Russell Wilson. That being said, Jeudy is still the better value, and he will continue to be.
Bench
Here at Dynasty Owner, you not only get points from your Starting lineup, but also from your Bench. Your Dynasty Owner teams get 25 percent of the points scored from players on your Bench added to the total final score. This means that Bench scoring could (and often does) affect the outcome of individual matches as well as championships. Here are the players I would be okay putting on my Bench.
Matt Ryan ($30,000,000)
Ryan is only rostered in 21.3 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues. If you have him on your roster, I suppose you have to at least have him as a Bench quarterback. If you don’t, then there is really no reason to roster him. That being said, take this time to check out the Free Agent Auction in your league because there may be better quarterback options.
Albert Okwuegbunam ($1,011,011)
Albert O comes in as the lowest salaried player on either of these two lists. You are hoping for a touchdown if you have him in your Starting lineup or on the Bench. I actually think today is going to be a touchdown game for Albert, but we’ll get to that in just a second.
Value of the Game
My VOTG pick this week is the player I just mentioned, Albert Okwuegbunam. It’s slim pickings this week. It’s not that I don’t think there will be some above-average performances. Instead, it’s the lack of low salaries that makes me hesitate when picking a VOTG. I have Albert O getting a modest three receptions, but I also have him converting one of those receptions into a touchdown.
| Week 5 Projection | Salary | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | $1,011,011 | 3 | 39 | 1 | 12.9 |
This prediction obviously hinges on the idea that Albert will get into the end zone. I also considered putting Jonathan Taylor as my VOTG until he was ruled out. Before that, I didn’t for one simple reason. Salary.
Let’s say that Albert puts up the 12.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points like I predict. His DD/PT value would be $78,373. Taylor would have to get 25.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to be a better value ($78,291). My pre-injury prediction for Taylor fell just short of that, so Albert O is the pick.
Check back in next week to see if I add another tally to the win column. Thank you all for reading. Take care and be safe.
TheJerk