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Steelers at Colts
By: Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl)
What to Watch For
The Colts have looked much better since Jeff Saturday took over as head coach and I will be watching closely to see how he has evolved over the past couple of weeks. Man, that is one crazy sentence that I just put on paper. As for the rest of the Colts’ team, I will be watching their two offensive studs, Jonathan Taylor ($1,957,287), and Michael Pittman ($2,153,212) closely. Both Taylor and Pittman have struggled compared with their early season predictions, but have bounced back in a positive way since Saturday took over.
As for my Steelers’, I will be watching our young quarterback, Kenny Pickett ($3,516,976) extremely close. If Pickett does not show serious improvement throughout the remainder of the season, and the Steelers pick near the top of the 2023 NFL Draft, I see a real scenario where the Steelers move on from Pickett after one season. Remember Kevin Colbert selected Pickett on his way out the door as General Manager and the new sheriff in charge (Omar Kahn) may have different plans should Pickett continue to fail. Consider that a bold prediction!
The last player I will be keeping an eye on is George Pickens ($1,688,045). I think Pickens has the potential to be the WR1 overall at some point in his career, but I feel he will have a tough night tonight for two reasons. The offense Pickens plays on paired with the likely fact that he will see a ton of Stephon Gilmore in coverage tonight.
Jay’s Monday Night Prediction
Do I have a ton of faith in this prediction? No, not at all but a fan can dream. Right? The 2022 Steelers have been a horrible football team and at this point, I am ok with the losses piling up to get a better draft selection. The Colts rely heavily on the running game when they play well, and I just don’t see that working out well against T.J. Watt and company. If Jonathan Taylor gets going early, it will be a long night for the Steelers. If the Steelers force Matt Ryan ($30,000,000) to beat them, I believe they will pull out a close win.
Over/Under Projections – Steelers
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| Kenny Pickett | QB | $3,516,976 | 17.0 | Over |
Kenny Pickett has struggled on the field, but he has put up over 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in each of his last two games. While I don’t see Pickett having a huge game, I do see him staying around the 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point mark. Over for Pickett.
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| Najee Harris | RB | $3,261,862 | 14.5 | Over |
Harris had his first big performance of the season last week against the Bengals and I believe he will continue to build upon that this week. While I am not expecting a huge day on the ground, I do think Harris will be more involved in the passing game. Over for Najee.
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| George Pickens | WR | $1,688,045 | 11.1 | Under |
Well, this sucks! I love Pickens and need him to do well for me in an important matchup, but I think he is going to draw Stephon Gilmore in coverage which is a tough task for any rookie. I hope he proves me wrong, but for now I am going with the Under for Pickens.
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| Diontae Johnson | WR | $1,070,241 | 10.1 | Over |
I know Johnson has struggled horribly this season, but let’s not forget he just signed a new contract extension and will have to be involved at some point. Pickett says he has a plan to get Johnson more involved and for some reason I am trusting it. Over for Diontae.
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | $1,070,241 | 11.5 | Over |
With such low projected totals for the Steelers’ starters, Pat Freiermuth will be the fourth Steelers’ player I have scoring Over their projected point total. Freiermuth has been a reliable target for Pickett since he took over, and I don’t see that changing in 2022.
Over/Under Projections – Colts
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| Matt Ryan | QB | $30,000,000 | 18.4 | Over |
Matt Ryan seems to be a tough cookie to crack in terms of predictions, but tonight he goes up against a bad Steelers’ secondary. I don’t see Ryan having a massive game, but I do feel he will do enough to hit the Over.
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | $1,957,287 | 16.8 | Under |
Despite the early season struggles, I still feel Jonathan Taylor is the best running back in football right now. He has looked much better recently, but I believe the Steelers will sell out to stop him. Under for Taylor but not by much.
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| Michael Pittman | WR | $2,153,212 | 14.9 | Over |
As I mentioned earlier Pittman hasn’t had the season we all hoped for, but there is still time for him to turn things around. Pittman was solid last week, and I am expecting more of the same tonight. Over for Pittman.
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| Parris Campbell | WR | $1,193,984 | 12.1 | Under |
When healthy Parris Campbell seems to be a reliable fantasy option. The problem with Campbell this week is that he missed time with an illness. If Campbell is less than 100%, I am going with the Under.
| Player | Position | Salary | Projected Points | Over/Under |
| Mo Alie-Cox | TE | $5,850,000 | 4.6 | Under |
It always feels disrespectful to predict the Under with such a low point total, but Alie-Cox is always a hit or miss player. He will either blow this projection out of the water or he will do absolutely nothing at all. Under for Alie-Cox.
Dynasty Owner Games of the Week
Every week, I will pick at least one Dynasty Owner game that is close in score and will be decided during Monday Night Football. If you happen to find yourself in this situation on Sunday night, please get ahold of me on Twitter (@jaypoundsnfl) and I will gladly feature your game here.
Game 1 – League #30551
Green Mountain Grizzlies – No one left in Starting lineup or Bench left to play
KC DC – Alec Pierce on Bench left to play
If you have not noticed by now, I love games that come down to Bench scoring. In our first Game of the Week, we have the Green Mountain Grizzles going up against KC DC in what will likely be an important outcome for Green Mountain Grizzlies’ playoff hopes. The Grizzlies are currently sitting in sixth place with three teams in total at 6-5. KC DC has no shot at making the playoffs, but a win would make for a nice consolation prize towards the end of the season. A week like this should also increase KC DC’s hopes of winning the bonus rookie draft pick (1.13) via the Losers’ Bracket tournament. Fortunately for the Grizzlies, I think they will pull this game out by the slimmest of margins. Good luck to both of my league mates in tonight’s matchup.
Game 2 – League #58989
Noblesville Indians – No one left in Starting lineup or Bench left to play
juan blanco – Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman in Starting lineup left to play
In our second Game of the Week, we have a game with huge implications for the Dynasty Owners in League #58989. I believe this game will be much closer than the experts think as I see it being decided by a point or two vs. the projections having it at just under 10 points. If Noblesville Indians find a way to win, they will be sitting in prime position to claim one of the league’s bye weeks in the playoffs. If juan blanco pulls out a win, the bye week will be up for grabs with four teams making a case. Good luck to both of you in tonight’s matchup.
Value of the Game Recap
| Week 11 Projected | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| Rondale Moore | 6 | 71 | 1 | 19.1 |
| Week 11 Winner | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Return Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| Greg Dortch | 9 | 103 | 15 | 0 | 19.7 |
I can’t lie to you all, this was the most painful loss of the season for me as Rondale Moore ($1,731,060) went down with an injury early in the game only to see his replacement, Greg Dortch ($895,000) go nuts, scoring close to the point total I had projected for Moore. Had Moore stayed in the game, I believe he would have had similar numbers to Dortch and given me a much-needed victory, but that is life in the NFL. Here is to another week of trying with an even tougher selection process.
Overall Record: 5-6
Value of the Game
Week 12 Winner – Diontae Johnson
| Week 12 Projected | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| Diontae Johnson | 6 | 54 | 1 | 17.4 |
Another Monday, another tough decision for me when it comes to choosing a Value of the Game. For once I was hoping the football gods would just give me an obvious choice, but that is nowhere near the case. In tonight’s game I had five players who I seriously considered choosing and those players were Diontae Johnson, Jonathan Taylor, George Pickens, Parris Campbell, and Pat Freiermuth. I ultimately ended up choosing Diontae Johnson despite his struggles most of this season. I have heard a ton of noise out of Pittsburgh that they are going to get him more involved and I’m hoping it will pay off with a correct selection that I desperately need. I’m a gambling man tonight!
Be sure to check out all our upcoming content this season. We will have several articles, podcasts, and the Livestream on Wednesday for everyone each week. Thank you all for reading and I hope your teams killed it this week. Stay safe out there and good luck on your 2022 Chase for the Ring!