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Week 12 Recommendations – Hedging My Bets

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By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Sports betting is legal (although with some limitations) in 39 states plus the District of Columbia, which is good news for a very good friend of mine who frequently stops at the Verizon Center sportsbook after work to place some $2 and $3 bets. I’ve been able to do it from my home in Virginia for some time. If you live across the river in Maryland as they say here, you can now wager from the comfort of your own home as online sports betting went live on Wednesday. Just in time for Thanksgiving Day football!

In honor of this occasion, I’ll be hedging some of my bets, aka recommendations, this week. There are also some sound reasons for this decision.

There are three Thanksgiving Day games involving six teams. The Buffalo-Detroit game is first up at 12:30 PM (Eastern) so don’t forget to set your lineups early. While this is great, it does leave Dynasty Owners in a situation where they may have to make decisions on players who are questionable a full three days before their game. I know this happens every week with Thursday Night Football, but the games start earlier in the day and are magnified on Thanksgiving. It makes your lineup decisions less flexible if you have a player in one of the Sunday games or Monday Night Football who is questionable.

However, on the positive side, we do have all 32 teams playing for the first time since Week 5. A full compliment of healthy players can offset some of the issues caused by the extra two Thursday games. To be honest, the QB changes for three teams already announced (looking at you Jets, Panthers and Texans) really does eliminate a few teams from producing many players who could be in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup.

For my recommendations, the combination of three Thanksgiving Day games plus making these recommendations earlier than usual could affect them as things might change based on an injury assumption from Wednesday versus Friday. The question for Dynasty Owners is really:

“Is it better to Start a player who is definitely playing on Thursday to get at least some points, or wait on a better player who is questionable and might end up not playing on Sunday”

For example, do you have WR32 Jakobi Meyers ($3,986,000) in your Starting lineup because he’s playing on Thursday, or do you wait and hope that WR12 Ja’Marr Chase ($7,704,910) plays on Sunday. Chase should get more Dynasty Owner fantasy points, if he plays, than Meyers, but Meyers is pretty much guaranteed to give you at least a few on Thursday night. To paraphrase Hamlet, “to hedge or not to hedge, that is the question.”

While I made all of my regular weekly recommendations and picked players for your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup and Bench, I did make a few additional recommendations or mentioned someone else to hedge some of my bets. This weekly recommendations article will contain a player at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) who you should have as a Starter in your Dynasty Owner lineup, but who isn’t an obvious choice and might usually be on your Bench or Practice Squad or even available in the Free Agent Auction. After that, I’ll name one player per position who is playing well and is normally in your Starting lineup, but who should be on your Bench or Practice Squad.

For the purposes of this article, all statistics, ADP and Dynasty Owner roster percentages were current as of the morning of Thursday, November 24th.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

First, we’ll check on how my Week 11 recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok). I predicted that the following four players would have Dynasty Owner Starting lineup worthy performances in Week 11.

QB: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF – $7,000,000) – 35.7 (Good recommendation)

RB: Brian Robinson (WAS – $1,261,227) – 5.7 (Bad recommendation)

WR: Ben Skowronek (LAR – $891,131) – 1.4 (Bad recommendation)

TE: Kylen Granson (IND – $1,046,592) – 2.6 (Bad recommendation)

At least I had one Good recommendation, but unfortunately offset it with three Bad ones. It didn’t cause much of a change in my overall recommendations record and that stands at 32% Good, 55% Bad and 11% Just Ok. The streak of having one or more Good recommendations has been extended to eight weeks in a row.

Jimmy Garoppolo had the sixth highest point total of Week 11 with 35.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. That was my fifth Good QB recommendation, just one behind the six Good RB recommendations. The rest of the recommendations were Bad and pretty much not even close. Both Ben Skowronek and Kylen Granson only managed one catch each. The Commanders had 153 rushing yards against the Texans and 129 by RBs. The problem was that Brian Robinson only had 57 of those rushing yards on 15 carries and no receptions or TDs. His 5.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points wasn’t even enough to be a Just Ok recommendation. 

While I’m thankful for having at least one Good recommendation, I want more and need more every week if I’m going to have as many Good as Bad recommendations for the season. Here are the players who I think are worth having in your Week 12 Dynasty Owner Starting lineup, plus a pair of hedges in case of injuries or changes in player status over the next few days.

Marcus Mariota (ATL – $9,375,000): I could go with one of the four new Starting QBs this week, but don’t have a lot of confidence in Sam Darnold ($18,858,000) from Panthers, Mike White ($2,540,000) from the Jets, Kyle Allen ($2,500,000) from the Texans, or even John Wolford ($895,000) from the Rams now that Matthew Stafford ($27,000,000) has been ruled out. Instead, I’m taking a guy who plenty of people thought wouldn’t be starting by now.

Third time’s a charm as they say and hopefully they are right because this is the third time I’ve picked Mariota and gotten a Just Ok and Bad recommendation, but not a Good one. Mariota has a good rushing floor, rushing for 25 or more yards in seven out of 11 games and double digits in 9 out of 11 games. The Commanders aren’t allowing QBs to run for a lot with just 171 rushing yards and 2 TDs by QBs in 11 games. However, they haven’t been particularly great at preventing QBs who can use their legs to score Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Mariota is sixth among QBs with 372 rushing yards. The Commanders have played two of the QBs above him a total of three times (Justin Fields once and Jalen Hurts twice). They will eventually play against Daniel Jones twice as well. In the three games against the type of QBs that Mariota is, they have given up 84.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, or 28.3 points per game. That’s plenty to make him a top 12 QB and a Starter for your Dynasty Owner team.

Rachaad White (TB – $1,282,500): I could hedge and say that I’m only taking White if Leonard Fournette ($7,000,000) doesn’t play, but I don’t think that’s necessary. White has steadily been receiving more work for the Buccaneers over the course of the season cumulating with 48 snaps and 22 touches in Week 10 against Seattle. Fournette did sit out all of the fourth quarter, but White only had one fewer touch than Fournette through the first three quarters (15 for Fournette vs. 14 for White).  After not playing much in the first three games of the season, White has scored 62.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points over the last seven games, an average of 8.9 points per game. While that’s not enough to be in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup, he did have the first 100 yard rushing game of his career in Week 10.

Guess what? The Buccaneers get to play the Browns this week and Cleveland has allowed 1,200 yards rushing to RBs this season so far (120 yards per game). A second consecutive 100 yard rushing game for White is not out of the question after the Browns allowed 171 yards rushing last week to Buffalo. I’m doing my best at recommending Starting lineup RBs and believe White will help me improve that and should be in your Starting lineup this week.

Alec Pierce (IND – $1,650,336): The worst part about working mostly on these recommendations on Wednesday is that it’s five days until Monday Night Football and so much could happen in that time to change my mind. Even with that hedging, I’m sticking with Alec Pierce to play well enough to be in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup this week.

His production hasn’t gone back to what it was in Weeks 3-6 with Matt Ryan ($30,000,000) at QB for the Colts, but he was targeted 8 times last week. In Weeks 3-6, Pierce was targeted 27 times by Ryan and accumulated 53.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (18 receptions, 271 receiving yards, 1 TD and 1 fumble). The TD was a 32-yard TD with 17 seconds left against Jacksonville, a clutch scoring event because it put the Colts ahead. That’s his only TD, but this week is as good as a time as any for the second one with the Pittsburgh defense having allowed 14 TDs to WRs so far. Pierce is surprisingly WR57 for the season, probably because he only has that one TD, so he easily qualifies as someone to get into your Starting lineup here.

The hedge if there’s news from Indianapolis before Sunday that makes me want to change my mind is Zay Jones ($8,000,000). He’s been one of Jay’s Free Agent Auction targets a few times this season and for good reason. His roster percentage is just under two-thirds (64.68%) and Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372) throws him the ball a lot. He’s tied with Drake London ($5,383,617) for 33rd in WR targets with 65 on the season. Don’t forget that Jones missed two games this season. While I know from reading the Opportunity Is (Almost) Everything series that opportunities aren’t everything, I do like the fact that Jones gets targeted a lot and can see that paying off in Week 12 and Jones being worth having in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup.

Dawson Knox (BUF – $880,400): It’s a little bit surprising that Knox is TE18 for the season. I thought that he had missed multiple games, but he only didn’t play in Week 5 against Pittsburgh. It’s true that he’s only 8.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points behind TE12 Hayden Hurst ($3,500,000), but he’s only 7.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points ahead of TE21 Will Dissly ($8,000,000). There are so many TEs in the TE6 to TE21 range who could be in your Starting lineup that it’s very difficult to figure out who will fill out the top 12 in a given week. Fortunately for Knox, he has been playing well recently despite Josh Allen ($43,005,667) not being at his best. Allen has his four worst scoring games in the last four weeks, but he’s still QB2. The Bills get to play Detroit on Thanksgiving with the Lions allowing 28.2 points and 262.2 passing yards per game. Allen should have a huge game on a huge stage. Knox was his leading receiver with 7 receptions and 70 receiving yards (14.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) last week against the Browns, a game that was played in Detroit. Knox is averaging 9.55 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game since Buffalo’s bye week. All of that gives me confidence that Knox will perform well enough to be in your Starting lineup.

My hedge at TE would be Tre’ McKitty ($1,196,463) since the Chargers are playing Arizona and TEs have been scoring Dynasty Owner fantasy points and TDs against the Cardinals this season. However, he’s TE73 with only 10.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. If Gerald Everett ($6,000,000) does play, Everett will be worth a spot in your Dynasty Owner starting lineup, but he’s just a little too close (TE14) to the top 12 so he shouldn’t be allowed here. McKitty might do well enough if Everett doesn’t play, but Sunday is too far away for me to trust that happens, so I’ll go with Knox.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Now it’s time to look at how my Week 11 Bench recommendations worked out (Good, Bad or Just Ok). So far, I’ve been better at making Bench recommendations than Starting lineup recommendations and hopefully that continued in Week 11.

QB: Jalen Hurts (PHI – $1,506,292) – 29.1 (Bad recommendation)

RB: Kareem Hunt (CLE – $6,000,000) – 7.4 (Good recommendation)

WR: Amari Cooper (CLE – $20,000,000) – 31.3 (Bad recommendation)

TE: Juwan Johnson (NO – $895,000) – 13.7 (Bad recommendation)

They were not as I had an identical record to my Starting lineup recommendations with one Good along with three Bad recommendations. By having one Good recommendation, I have still gotten one or more in all 11 weeks this season. By position, it’s a tie between QB, WR and TE as I’ve had five Good recommendations at each of those positions.

However, it was at RB that I made this week’s only Good recommendation. Both Nick Chubb ($12,200,000) and my recommended Bench selection Kareem Hunt didn’t play well against Buffalo as the QB-WR stack of Jacoby Brissett ($4,650,000) and Amari Cooper led the Browns’ offense. Hunt had fewer opportunities than Chubb and only 7.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (32 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 22 rushing yards). The rest of the recommendations were Bad including the Bench recommendation of Cooper who had 31.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and was in the top 10 for the entire week. Jalen Hurts wasn’t far behind with 29.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and Juwan Johnson had double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points, so obviously he was in the top 12 TEs.

Things need to turn around. My overall Bench record is still better than my Starting lineup recommendations, but it’s getting closer with a record of 41% Good, 50% Bad and 9% Just Ok. A perfect Week 12 of four Good recommendations will even my record, so that’s what I’m trying to do with these players.

Aaron Rodgers (GB – $33,500,000): The fact that Rodgers is QB10 is a bit of a mirage. The Packers have played 11 games versus the 10 games that most of the other teams in the NFL have played at this point. Sometimes the bye weeks play havoc with statistical evaluations because of how they are staggered. Justin Fields ($4,717,989) is the only other top 10 QB who has played 11 games and he has scored 39.0 more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than Rodgers. That’s more points than Rodgers has scored in a single game all season so far.

Rodgers has scored 213.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points this season. In 11 games, that averages out to 19.38 points per game. In 10 games, he’d have 193.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and be QB19 for the season, just behind Jimmy Garoppolo (who has only played 9 games). An average game by Rodgers leaves him vulnerable to not being a top 12 QB, especially with all 32 teams playing. Admittedly, we have several new starting QBs, but one of them could have a great game and be Player of the Week. Last year, it happened with new Jets starting QB Mike White who won the award in Week 8 last year with 38.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

I haven’t even mentioned that he’s been playing with a broken right thumb, which he finally admitted to in typical Rodgers fashion after carefully evading the question for weeks (see COVID “immunization” status from 2021 for a similar situation). I’m not going to bash anymore, but I also wouldn’t put him in my Dynasty Owner Starting lineup after how he’s played this season before that new information. No hedging here, Rodgers is a Bench QB if you roster him in Dynasty Owner (80% rostered). 

Nick Chubb (CLE – $12,200,000): Since the Browns’ Week 9 bye, Nick Chubb has slipped a little bit. He only scored 23.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in two games (14.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 10 versus Miami and 9.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 11 versus Buffalo). The Browns face Tampa Bay this week and while the Buccaneers’ run defense hasn’t been as good as in the past, they are still a slight bit better than average (ranked 15th in fewest rushing yards allowed per game) and playing better in the two games prior to their Week 11 bye.

In Week 10, the Buccaneers held Kenneth Walker ($2,110,395) to only 17 rushing yards on 10 carries and in Week 9, the Rams only gained 68 yards on the ground on 24 attempts. While Chubb has been more involved in the passing game in the past two weeks with 3 receptions in each game, he still gets 85% of his Dynasty Owner fantasy points running the ball (167.3 out of 196.9 points). If Tampa Bay can stop him from running effectively, he’ll either need a TD (and Tampa has only allowed 3 TDs to RBs all season), an incredibly high workload, or a lot of work in the passing game. I’m going to bet against those things happening and recommend that you keep Chubb on your Dynasty Owner Bench this week.

My hedge choice is Joe Mixon ($12,000,000). If Mixon plays after suffering a concussion in Week 11, he’s still got to face the Tennessee defense that allows only 65.2 yards rushing to RBs per game. He’s questionable and didn’t practice on Wednesday, so he might sit out and I don’t want to take a “not applicable” for this recommendation by choosing him. However, I did want to mention that the RB7 for the season might not be a good Starting lineup selection.

D.J. Moore (CAR – $20,628,000): I hope this recommendation doesn’t ruin Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer’s Thanksgiving with the Moore family. Tim’s well known in Dynasty Owner circles as being as big of a D.J. Moore fan as D.J.’s mom, so I assume that he’s invited to Thanksgiving.

In all seriousness, Moore is WR27 for the season really on the back of that 30.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy point effort in Week 8 game against Atlanta when he caught the 62-yard Hail Mary TD pass from QB Phillip Walker ($895,000) to tie the game. We won’t mention what happened next. Since then, he’s had a total of 16.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (9 receptions for 77 receiving yards) in three games with Walker and Baker Mayfield ($18,858,000) as his QBs.

Walker’s out and so is Mayfield as Carolina is rolling with Sam Darnold ($18,858,000) at QB in his first action of the 2022 season. I can’t stay far enough away from Darnold and that includes all of the players who need him to play well, such as D.J. Moore. I’m thankful that I don’t have any shares of Moore, so I don’t have to find a replacement this week for him. If you do, you need to find one and get Moore on your Bench.

Cole Kmet (CHI – $1,894,444): I should probably hedge this one and not include Kmet if Justin Fields plays, but I’m not going to do that. Kmet (and Fields, too) had been on a roll prior to Week 11 with two straight games with two TDs and more than 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He only scored 6.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (3 receptions for 35 receiving yards) last week against Atlanta with no TDs. Kmet is unlikely to get even one TD versus the New York Jets this week, regardless of whether it’s Fields or Trevor Siemian ($2,000,000) under center for the Bears. That’s because not a single TE has scored a TD against Gang Green this season. They have played three other top 12 TEs so far this season in Mark Andrews ($14,000,000), Pat Freiermuth ($1,507,045) and Hayden Hurst ($3,500,000) so the Jets have stopped some quality TEs from reaching the end zone. Kmet will be another one and without a TD, he likely won’t reach double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He hasn’t done it so far this year after doing it three times in 2021. Leave Kmet on your Dynasty Owner Bench.

Conclusion

If you made it to the end of this article, let me wish you and your family a Happy Thanksgiving. I can say that regardless of if you read it before, during or after having some turkey or even if you didn’t eat any turkey. The sentiment remains even if you didn’t get to read this until Friday, Saturday or Sunday morning. I appreciate your readership and being a fellow Dynasty Owner.

While I hedged a few recommendations this week because of Thanksgiving, I am happy that I had a full 16-game slate to choose from this week. That won’t happen again this season as there’s a Thursday Night Football game every week through the end of the Dynasty Owner season (Week 17 of the NFL regular season). I can’t believe that we are close enough to be thinking about the end of the Dynasty Owner season already.

What’s not ending is all of the great content you get from Dynasty Owner. In season, we have articles from me, Jay Pounds and Matt Morrison – The Jerk that will help you figure out the best players for your Dynasty Owner team for the rest of the season. They also write off-season content along with me and Nate Christian who is also doing an article every other week during the season to help you figure out which rookies will be most helpful to your Dynasty Owner team in the future. Thank you to the three of them for being such a great writing team and to Jay for being a great co-host on the Dynasty Owner podcast as well.

I’m thankful to be able to join Tim every week for the Dynasty Owner Livestream, enjoy doing them at lunchtime on Wednesdays and answering your trade questions and talking about Dynasty Owner and fantasy football in general. You can also catch it on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel if you can’t watch and interact with us live. Finally, don’t forget to follow Dynasty Owner on Twitter as well.

Thanks for reading and have a Happy Thanksgiving!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

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