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By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)
I was able to watch lots of football over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. With family activities combined with nice Sunday weather for most of the NFL season, it doesn’t always happen that I’m able to sit down and watch an entire block of games. It was the most football that I’ve watched live this whole season. Because of Thanksgiving dinner, clean-up and having people over, I missed the second half of the Bills-Lions game and the entire Cowboys-Giants game. However, I did watch the entire Patriots-Vikings game that night to make up for it. On Sunday, I watched a lot of the Red Zone Channel plus flipped to actual games when one game was more compelling than the others being shown on the Red Zone Channel. Since the Patriots had played already and it was raining at my house all day, I was free to watch pretty much whatever game I wanted.
The ending of the late afternoon Sunday games were the most exciting as the Red Zone Channel had all four games on at once and I wanted to see what was happening in all four games. That’s one of the best parts about playing fantasy football in general and Dynasty Owner in particular. I’m able to enjoy multiple games because I have something at stake in almost all of them. Since I set full lineups and want to win every game, I’m also rooting for positive things to happen for my players. I like that. It’s much better than rooting against your players or having good players on your team, but not having them in your Starting lineup, or even on your Dynasty Owner Bench to enjoy. It stinks at times when they don’t play well, but more often, it’s a lot of fun.
In honor of the fact that I was able to watch lots of football this week, I’m going to present more Surprises and more Totally Predictable Events than usual. It’s not that every week doesn’t have a lot of them, but I was able to see more live than usual, so they made a bigger impression this week.
For the purposes of this article, all statistics, ADP and Dynasty Owner rostered percentages were current as of the afternoon of November 28th.
Surprise of the Week – It’s More Than One Surprise
This section is where I highlight one fantasy football surprise of the week. It’ll be something that nobody really saw coming. It could be a good or bad surprise depending on the week. Usually, it’s one surprise, except for Week 10 when we had Too Many Surprises. As I already wrote, the surprise is that I have more than one surprise this week.
Surprise #1: Jimmy Garoppolo’s record as 49ers’ starting QB
Believe it or not, Jimmy G has been as good or better as a starting QB for the 49ers than Hall of Famers Joe Montana and Steve Young over their first 59 games. I saw this graphic while watching the 49ers defeat the Saints on Sunday afternoon and was stunned by it.
Not sure why they chose 59 games as the benchmark, but that’s another story. The fact is that Jimmy’s record is the same as Young’s (40-19) and better than Montana’s (37-22). Montana had a tough start and was 2-6 as a starter in his first two seasons (1979 and 1980) as the 49ers weren’t very good (6-10 in 1980 when he started seven games).
The fact that Jimmy G has a good record as a starter isn’t surprising, but the fact that he’s been as good as Young and better than Montana at the beginning of his 49ers’ career is surprising.
Surprise #2: Skyy Moore wears #24 for Kansas City
When I saw Skyy Moore ($1,612,625) take a short pitch pass from Patrick Mahomes ($45,000,000) during the Chiefs’ game against the Rams, I thought he was a running back. For years, running backs in the NFL wore numbers from 20 to 49. Defensive backs did as well, but since the Chiefs were on offense, I thought Moore was a RB and not a DB. I hadn’t seen him on the field in the other parts of Chiefs’ games that I had watched so I wasn’t aware. I’ve gotten used to seeing defensive players and running backs with single digit numbers, but it was the first time seeing a WR wearing a number like #24 and it was strange and surprising.
Moore hasn’t played much and has been a disappointment for his Dynasty Owners who likely spent a late first round rookie draft pick (ADP 10.7), or an eighth round startup draft pick (ADP 90.5) on him. He’s only scored 31.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (17 receptions, 205 receiving yards, 136 return yards, 3 lost fumbles), but has at least played better in the past two weeks with 11.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 11 and 5.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week. He also has two weeks with negative points (-2.7 in Week 3 and -3.0 in Week 7) which hasn’t helped. Hopefully Moore plays better, and I get used to seeing him on the field wearing #24.
Surprise #3: Ronald Jones actually played in his first game for the Chiefs
This is related to the Skyy Moore surprise as when I saw Moore wearing #24, I thought it might be Ronald Jones ($1,500,000). Turns out Jones wears #2 as I saw him play as well in the Chiefs’ Week 12 game. He saw his first action for the team with Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($2,705,393) going on Injured Reserve. He had 4.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (12 rushing yards, 1 reception, 22 receiving yards) in his first game and may have earned more playing time. It was only 11 snaps, but that’s better for him and his Dynasty Owners than zero.
Surprise #4: Ronald Jones is still rostered in 62.98% of Dynasty Owner leagues
Maybe it should have been #3b, but regardless of numbering, I can’t believe that Jones is still rostered in that many Dynasty Owner leagues after being a healthy scratch for the Chiefs’ first 10 games of the season. I know his salary is inexpensive at $1.5 million, he’s only 25 years old, and people drafted him way too high (ADP 144.1) in 2022 startup drafts or in the past (ADPs of 116.0 in 2019, 87.5 in 2020 and 86.7 in 2021), but how many games did his Dynasty Owners need to see his name on the inactive list before they drop him. I get hanging on to him, but after not playing for about 5 or 6 weeks and clearly being passed by rookie Isaih Pacheco ($934,777), I probably would have given up. Fortunately, I’ve never really been a Jones fan, so I don’t have him in any Dynasty Owner leagues (or any leagues at all). It’ll be interesting if his roster percentage goes up after he actually got to play some in Week 12.
Surprise #5: Seattle has multiple Dynasty Owner relevant players every week
This is a repeat from Week 9, but it’s still happening, and I’m still surprised. People may have forgotten about Seattle since they played in Munich in Week 10, so the game was on at 9:30 AM (Eastern) and were on bye in Week 11, but Geno Smith ($3,500,000) continues to put up solid Dynasty Owner fantasy points on a weekly basis. He has scored more than 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in eight out of 11 weeks this season. He’s QB6 right now for the season and should be in your Starting lineup if you have him on your Dynasty Owner roster. Not only that, but he’s helping to make multiple Seahawks’ players worth being in your Starting lineup on a weekly basis. In Week 10, it was the following four players (plus Smith):
| Player | Position | Salary | DOFPs |
| Geno Smith | QB | $3,500,000 | 24.9 |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | $2,110,395 | 13.2 |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | $17,250,000 | 13.2 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | $1,146,513 | 13.1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | WR | $1,272,500 | 11.8 |
In Week 11, it’s pretty much the same players, except removing Marquise Goodwin ($1,272,500) and adding it Travis Homer ($665,704):
| Player | Position | Salary | DOFPs |
| Geno Smith | QB | $3,500,000 | 25.6 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | $1,146,513 | 20.0 |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | $2,110,395 | 16.9 |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | $17,250,000 | 15.8 |
| Travis Homer | RB | $665,704 | 13.3 |
For the season, it’s been this way nearly every week with several players, besides Smith, scoring double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Lockett and Metcalf are pretty consistent with nine and seven double-digit games respectively and Walker has scored that many Dynasty Owner fantasy points for seven consecutive weeks (since Week 5).
Surprise #6: Taylor Heinicke wins another game as Washington’s QB
The Washington Commanders are 5-1 with Taylor Heinicke ($2,375,000) as their Starting QB this season. His record as a starting NFL QB is now over .500 at 12-11. That includes losing his only NFL start as a member of the Carolina Panthers in 2018 and the 2020 playoff loss to the G.O.A.T. Tom Brady ($15,000,000) and the eventual Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He’s got a long way to go to have as good of a starting QB record as Jimmy G, but he’s better than Carson Wentz ($32,000,000), who is now the backup QB in Washington.
I’m not recommending that you put him in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup, although I did do it in Week 8, and he was good enough to be a Starter that week with 28.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. The other five weeks haven’t been as good and he’s only averaging 16.05 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in his six starts. Still, he’s been good enough to win games for the Commanders and that’s been a surprise.
Surprise #7: Two fumble recoveries by offensive players for touchdowns
I’m not sure when the last time there were two fumble recoveries by offensive players resulting in touchdowns in the same week, but I’d guess it’s been a while. It’s obviously surprising and also surprising that each fumble recovery had a different outcome for Dynasty Owners.
Sam Darnold was stripped of the football and fumbled on a rushing attempt at the goal line in the Panthers’ 23-10 victory over the Denver Broncos. He recovered and rolled into the end zone for what is being called a 1-yard TD run. If you didn’t see the game live or the highlights, here’s what happened. In every place I’ve seen, Darnold is getting credited for a 1-yard TD run. For his few Dynasty Owners (7.66% rostered), Darnold scored 5.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points on the play (1 rushing yard, 1 TD, 1 fumble). Honestly, only Sam Darnold could score less than 6.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points on a TD.
In the Tennessee-Cincinnati game, Derrick Henry ($12,500,000) caught a short screen pass, evaded some tackles and rumbled down the field. He fumbled at about the 3-yard line, the ball went into the end zone and was recovered by Treylon Burks ($3,592,398). Here’s a description of what happened and a video. Henry got credit for a reception, 69 receiving yards and a fumble which was 6.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for the play. Burks got nothing. It was his first NFL touchdown, but his Dynasty Owners didn’t get a point since there’s nothing in the Dynasty Owner Constitution that gives points to players who recover fumbles or score a TD on a fumble recovery. Thanks to The Oracle ? who asked me about the scoring for the play in a league chat. It made me wonder and check the live scoring and Constitution.
Surprise #8: Justin Tucker missed a field goal attempt
That’s right. Justin Tucker ($5,000,000) missed a field goal attempt. He’s only missed a kick 13 times in 294 attempts across the 60 games that he has played during Dynasty Owner’s history.
It was a 67-yard FG attempt, but as I was watching it, I totally thought that he’d make it. After all, he’s 16 for 21 from 50+ yards in Dynasty Owner history and made a 66-yard FG last season. Not only did he miss, but it was short by at least a yard or two. That made it doubly surprising.
Totally Predictable Event of the Week – More Than One Is So Predictable
This section is where I highlight one totally predictable thing that might be surprising to other people, but might be something that I’ve been believing and saying for a while, but many people haven’t been listening or agreeing with me on it. Since I got to watch a lot of NFL games on Thursday and Sunday and had more than one surprise, it was totally predictable that I’d have more than one Totally Predictable Event as well.
Totally Predictable Event #1: Mike White plays better than Zach Wilson
It’s a little bit of a piggyback on last week’s Totally Predictable Event of Zach Wilson Plays Terrible. Part of being predictable last week was that Zach Wilson ($8,787,670) was playing against the Patriots and Bill Belichick had been given an extra week to prepare. Wilson played well against the Patriots in the teams’ first meeting of the season, likely adding more incentive for the Patriots’ coach. The rest of it was that I thought Wilson was terrible pretty much since he was drafted by the Jets with the overall #2 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
On the other hand, Mike White ($2,540,000) has only played in five NFL games. He has scored more Dynasty Owner fantasy points in two of those five games than the highest scoring game of Wilson’s career (26.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). This week, White had 34.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (315 passing yards, 2 rushing yards, 3 TDs). White now has one more 3 TD game than Wilson (2 games for White versus 1 for Wilson) and only played in one-quarter of the games (5 games for White versus 20 games for Wilson).
I wasn’t surprised since White played well last year and Joe Flacco ($3,500,000) played better when he started the season as the Jets’ starter. Flacco even had a 4 TD game in Week 2 against Cleveland. The Jets’ offense just seems to do better without Wilson. For some people, the fact that White played better than Wilson is a surprise, but it was pretty predictable to me.
Totally Predictable Event #2: Zach Wilson failed as Jets’ QB after being drafted #2
The New York Jets don’t draft QBs very well. Since drafting Joe Willie Namath in 1965, they have taken a QB in the first round a total of six times and none of them have been nearly as good as Namath and led the Jets to even a Super Bowl appearance. Richard Todd was taken with the #6 pick in 1976 to replace Namath and threw more interceptions (161) than passing touchdowns (124) in his career. In 1983, it was Ken O’Brien who they drafted 24th, three spots ahead of Dan Marino. Enough said there.
They waited until 2000 to try again and drafted Chad Pennington with the #18 pick. It was their third first round pick that year. He played eight seasons for the Jets, but only started and played all 16 games twice, mostly due to injuries. He also fought a bit with the media and although he was Comeback Player of the Year in 2006, he was never a top QB. After Pennington was released in 2008 and the Jets tried Brett Favre at QB, they drafted Mark Sanchez with the #5 pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. Best known for the “Butt Fumble”, which celebrated its tenth anniversary just a couple of days ago, Sanchez did reach the AFC Championship game in his first two seasons with the Jets, but also only played four seasons in New York. After that, it was Sam Darnold ($18,858,000) with the third pick in 2018 who was forced out to make way for Zach Wilson.
In all honesty, Wilson never had a chance. Neither did Darnold to be honest, or Sanchez after the “Butt Fumble”. The New York media is brutal, the fans are tough, and some players just aren’t well equipped to handle it. Sanchez was probably the best equipped out of the last three, and started out strong, but he only lasted four seasons. Wilson was kind of a surprise pick at #2 and played at BYU. I don’t know a lot about the media in Provo, but I can say with certainty that they are unlikely to be as relentless and all-consuming as the New York media. Especially when you are a QB taken with the #2 overall draft pick. Add in the mom drama, his boyish looks and being the QB for a bad team last year and it wasn’t destined to end well.
That’s ok. Not everybody is Joe Willie Namath and can confidently predict a Super Bowl victory, then deliver, go to Studio 54 and party with celebrities, film pantyhose commercials, etc. However, I think the Jets need to think about those extra intangibles when evaluating QBs in the future. Drafting a young kid from BYU #2 overall and plopping him in New York City was only going to work if he was a once in a lifetime prospect with an amazing thick skin, brazen attitude and the ability to back up that attitude. I don’t think anybody thought Wilson or any of the QBs the Jets have drafted recently were that. Probably should have been a good enough reason for them to pass on them. That’s why it was totally predictable that Wilson would fail as the Jets’ QB.
Totally Predictable Event #3: Ezekiel Elliott plays a lot on Thanksgiving
After three consecutive games with either over 100 yards rushing or receiving for Tony Pollard ($796,945), of course Ezekiel Elliott ($15,000,000) played nearly as many snaps as Pollard (44 snaps for Pollard to 38 for Elliott) on Thanksgiving. Elliott also had nearly as many touches (20 for Pollard to 17 for Elliott) as well. Admittedly Elliott had more total yards (95 yards for Elliott vs. 61 for Pollard), the only TD by the pair and most importantly, more Dynasty Owner fantasy points (16.5 for Elliott vs. 8.1 for Pollard).
I’m not a huge conspiracy theorist, but I have to believe that Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones pretty much ordered coach Mike McCarthy to play Elliott more. At least McCarthy had to know that Jones wanted Elliott to play more on Thanksgiving and accommodated him by doing it. Either way, it was totally predictable even though most people would agree that Pollard should be playing much more than Elliott at this point.
Totally Predictable Event #4: Jay Pounds was right about Zay Jones
I could have said “Zay Jones would play well for Jacksonville this week”, but since my podcast co-host Jay Pounds touted Jones ($8,000,000) in his Free Agent Auction targets article two weeks ago, I wanted to give him the credit. So why does this qualify as nobody agreeing with me. Technically, I didn’t say it, but I did hedge my Starting WR recommendation this week by saying Jones would be the choice if I heard any negative news about Alec Pierce ($1,650,336). I didn’t so Pierce is still the recommendation, but I probably should have recommended Jones, since it would have been Good.
The real reason why it’s here is that his Dynasty Owner roster percentage barely increased after Jay’s article. When the article was published, Jones’ Dynasty Owner roster percentage was 64.26%. It now stands at 64.68%, so a whopping increase of 0.42%. Congrats to the few of you who took Jay’s recommendation as Jones had 27.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (11 receptions, 145 receiving yards, 1 2-pt. conversion). I’m not surprised that Jones played well and after watching the 2-pt. conversion play and seeing that it was pretty much designed for Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372) to throw to Jones, I’m more confident in Jones’ Dynasty Owner appeal for the rest of the season and the rest of his contract with Jacksonville.
Totally Predictable Event #5: Jaguars and Chargers go for two and the win
Both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Chargers tied their games this week very late in the fourth quarter and then went for the 2-pt. conversion and the win. The fact that it was those teams attempting the 2-pt. conversion to win was totally predictable.
Both teams go for it on fourth down more than average and Jacksonville is near the top in attempting 2-pt. conversions this season as well. The Chargers were tied for third in fourth down conversion attempts per game last season and tied for sixth this year under coach Brandon Staley. The Jaguars are fourth this season with new coach Doug Pedersen. Jacksonville is also third in 2-pt. conversion attempts this year and the Chargers were tied for first last season. It’s just what their coaches do.
It was totally predictable that both of them would go for two and the win. The Chargers were on the road and that’s the expectation, you try to win the game. The Jaguars were at home, but were 3-7 for the season and needed a victory. The fact that both of them got the conversion and the victory was not predictable.
Conclusion
Thanks for reading. Where you surprised that I had a bunch of small surprises and predictable events this week, or was it totally predictable? Also, did you think I’d have the same number of each or were you surprised there were more of one than the other? I’m not sure that there were more surprises and predictable events than usual, it’s just that my ability to watch almost all of them live as they happened made them seem more plentiful and impactful.
If there was a surprise or totally predictable event that you think I missed, let me know on Twitter (@SteveVT33). What’s totally predictable is that Dynasty Owner will have a lot of great content this week for everyone.
- Mondays: The Monday Night Football preview article for the Steelers-Colts game from Jay Pounds is coming later today. You need to read it to see if his prediction is a surprise (Colts victory) or totally predictable (Steelers victory).
- Tuesdays: I’ll recap the Dynasty Owner week with the winners of Player of the Week, Value Player of the Week and our Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week. I’ll also give you a player per position who surprised and played well. They should have been in your Starting lineup. I’ll also find one player per position who didn’t do well and should have been on your Bench. This could be surprising or totally predictable. Jay Pounds also has his weekly Free Agent Auction targets article to help you figure out what players to bid on before the first Free Agent Auction run of the week is processed on Wednesday at 5 AM (Eastern).
- Wednesday: Matt Morrison – The Jerk will finish his Opportunity Is (Almost) Everything article series this Wednesday by looking at TEs. His weekly rankings also come out on Wednesdays.
- Thursday: I’ll have my weekly article that previews the upcoming NFL games and presents a Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week. Matt Morrison – The Jerk will preview the Thursday Night Football game. Find out if he was able to predict the “Value of the Game” for the three Thanksgiving games correctly or if they were a surprise.
- Friday: I’ll have my weekly preview article coming out with Starting lineup and Bench recommendations plus a look back at the previous week’s recommendations. Did I surprise everyone (including myself) by having four Good recommendations for your Starting lineup and Bench? Check it out and find the answer.
If you listen or watch, you know it’s no surprise that I enjoy doing the Dynasty Owner podcast. Listen to it wherever you get your podcasts or watch it on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel. We took last week off for Thanksgiving, but should be back to normal and recording on Thursday morning and releasing it on Friday morning.
Watch the Dynasty Owner Livestream as it happens as well on Wednesday at 12:30 PM (Eastern). We answer trade questions and talk about Dynasty Owner and fantasy football in general. You can also catch it afterwards if you can’t watch us live. Finally, don’t forget to follow Dynasty Owner on Twitter as well. Thanks, and have a great day!
Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner
Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner