Opportunity Is (Almost) Everything: Part IV

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello all. I’m Matt TheJerk here with Dynasty Owner. I will be finishing up my Opportunity Is (Almost) Everything article series. Over the past three weeks, I have discussed quarterback, running back and wide receiver opportunities. I have also compared those opportunities to snaps and Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Today, I will be wrapping up with the tight ends.

“A few years ago, I came across a few underutilized metrics that, I think, can help bridge the gap between opportunity and fantasy production. So often we compare Player x to Player y without having the full context of their seasons. I am guilty of comparing players that I know haven’t had the same opportunity. These metrics are also a great way to see which players are on the field, but aren’t receiving the opportunity you would expect.

So often we talk about how much a player’s opportunity means to fantasy production (especially for running backs). Well over the next month, I’m going to show you that while it is very important, opportunity isn’t quite everything.”

Today we will be talking about tight ends. This article will be limited to players in the Top 20 at each position. I’m going to be presenting some of the leaders in each of these categories…

  • Total Opportunities
  • Opportunities per Snap (Opp/Snap)
  • Dynasty Owner Fantasy Points (DOFP) per Opportunity (DOFP/Opp)

Total Opportunities

An opportunity for a tight end is the same as it is for a wide receiver. It would be the addition of all targets and rushing attempts. The one caveat to this is of course Taysom Hill ($10,000,000). Hill’s passing attempts must be included as he sometimes comes in as a quarterback and attempts a pass.

PlayerTeamSalaryOpportunitiesDOFPs
Travis KelceKC$14,312,500104241.7
Mark AndrewsBAL$14,000,00081143.8
Taysom HillNO$10,000,0008099.4
T.J. HockensonMIN$4,955,30677136.7
Tyler HigbeeLA$7,250,0007391.0

We see that Travis Kelce leads this list. No surprise here. Kelce is far and away the most productive tight end in the NFL this year as he has been for the past five years. A great deal of this success comes from great opportunity. Kelce has nearly 30 percent more opportunities than the next closest tight end. If you gave players like Mark Andrews or T.J. Hockenson the volume Kelce has (with their same production), they would both be at exactly 184.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Clearly this is still not as dominant as Kelce, but it would close the gap a bit.

As I say in every “Opportunity” article though…

“Opportunity is not quite everything.”

Opportunities Per Snap

Opportunities per Snap (Opp/Snap) looks at how efficient a player is with their opportunities when they take a snap.

PlayerTeamSalaryOpportunitiesDOFPsSnapsOpp/Snap
Taysom HillNO$10,000,0008099.42010.40
Travis KelceKC$14,312,500104241.76180.17
Mark AndrewsBAL$14,000,00081143.85230.15
Pat FreiermuthPIT$1,507,04571105.14830.15
Gerald EverettLAC$6,000,0006090.24180.14

Taysom Hill should be expected to lead this list. He is a very unique player who is used in a way that no other team uses another TE. He has designed packages where he comes in and does some combination of rushing, passing or receiving. The majority of his Dynasty Owner fantasy point production comes from the rushing ability, but he has been known to throw touchdowns as well. Hill is looking at 80 opportunities on only 201 snaps, but how are those 80 opportunities made up? Here is the breakdown.

  • Rushing: 58 rushes
  • Passing: 14 attempts
  • Receiving: 8 targets

There’s not much analysis that I can give you from this other than what you already know. Hill is a boom/bust type player who can be exciting to watch. However, you never know how much he will get the ball or in what situations. He should be rostered in most Dynasty Owner leagues (and is rostered in 62.98%), but the decision on whether to start him or not will depend on your other tight end options. I would be hesitant to start him as nearly two-fifths (39%) percent of his fantasy points this year have come in a single game (Week 5 against Seattle when he scored 39.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points).

Dynasty Owner Fantasy Points Per Opportunity

Finally, we tie this article together with Dynasty Owner fantasy points per opportunity (DOFPs/Opp). This is a way to show a player’s efficiency as it is a measure of Dynasty Owner fantasy points when they are actually getting a chance.

PlayerTeamSalaryOpportunitiesDOFPsSnapsOpp/SnapDOFPs/Opp
Travis KelceKC$14,312,500104241.76180.172.32
Dallas GoedertPHI$14,250,00053112.45420.102.12
Cole KmetCHI$1,894,4444592.57060.062.06
George KittleSF$15,000,00051102.05210.102.00
Juwan JohnsonNO$895,0004995.95060.101.96

Once again, it’s no surprise that Kelce is at the top of this list. He dominates all tight ends in Dynasty Owner fantasy points. And while he does have a high number of opportunities, they don’t drag down his DOFPs/Opp because of the sheer number of Dynasty Owner fantasy points he is scoring.

To put his season into perspective, Kelce would be the QB10, RB3 or WR3 based on how many Dynasty Owner fantasy points he has. He is doing all of this as a tight end. It goes without saying, but Kelce will be the number one league winner this season in both redraft and Dynasty Owner. The advantage you get with him over every other team is bigger than I’ve ever remembered. His salary will always be too high to be a Value of the Year winner, but he will for sure be a league winner.

Thank you for reading. Next week I’ll start a new article series as we look forward to the Dynasty Owner playoffs. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube.  Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Week 12 Recap: Far and Away Better

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Determining whether a player, NFL team or Dynasty Owner team is far and away better than everyone else is subjective at best. There are metrics, like rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards, passing yards, TDs, and Dynasty Owner fantasy points that can be used to evaluate, but sometimes the eye test is the best way to separate the top players and teams.

Not so much this week in the NFL as one RB played so well that he was far and away better than everyone else and the clear choice for Player of the Week. He outsourced everyone else by a wide margin and the feat was more impressive because RBs haven’t won the Player of the Week honor as much as you might think.

In the NFL, the best team is the Philadelphia Eagles at 10-1. However, they are not even far and away the top team in their division as the Dallas Cowboys are only two games out of first place at 8-3. Instead, the Minnesota Vikings have the widest division lead, a whopping five game advantage over the second place Detroit Lions. Most people who follow the NFL would say that Russell Wilson ($35,000,000) and the Denver Broncos are far and away the most disappointing team in the NFL this season. However, the worst team is probably the 1-9-1 Houston Texans as every other team has at least 3 wins.

The best division is a battle between the AFC East and NFC East as none of the eight teams in those two divisions has a losing record. In contrast, the NFC South is far and away the worst division as no team has a winning record. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit on top of that division with a 5-6 record. The four NFC South teams have combined to win three non-conference games with an overall non-conference record of 3-12.

We don’t have divisions or conferences in Dynasty Owner but can compare leagues. The best league might be one that has the teams who have scored the most Dynasty Owner fantasy points, or maybe it’s the league with the most teams in the top 100 of the Chase for the Ring. If you prefer a competitive league, then maybe one with a bunch of teams close in record and points scored might be the one you consider far and away better than the rest of the leagues.

Undefeated teams are far and away the best team in their respective leagues at this point since they are 12-0 and have beaten every other team in the league. Even if there is an 11-1 team in one of those leagues, the 11-1 team still lost to the undefeated team, so the undefeated team is better. In our first look at the undefeated teams, we had 11 of them inside the top 100 of the Chase for the Ring. That’s more undefeated teams at this point than last year, but how many of them got caught by their Week 1 opponent looking at a second chance at victory.

Team NameLeagueWeek 12 ResultChase PositionChange
Blaze’s Backyard Burners28287Win1stNone
juan blanco55318Win3rdUp 1
The Oracle 🙌71014Win4thDown 1
Stayner34654Win5thUp 1
Thee Camel Toe Jockey66645Win8thDown 1
The Tough Guys31625Loss14thDown 4
Rotting Husk of Al Davis27444Win27thNone
HawkNation27465Win37thUp 1
TPC Murder Hornets27466Loss43rdDown 15
All Outta Bubble Gum156854Win79thUp 26
Big Grizz66644Win97thDown 21

We only lost two undefeated teams as The Tough Guys and TPC Murder Hornets both lost. The Tough Guys were in 14th place, but are now in 18th place, while the TPC Murder Hornets dropped from 43rd place to 58th place after their loss. The biggest mover among the undefeated teams was All Outta Bubble Gum who moved up 26 spots into 53rd place. Big Grizz was just inside the top 100 last week at 97th place and while they won, their point total was low at 131.52 and so they dropped 21 spots in the Chase for the Ring standings.

The Match-up of the Week featured a Chase for the Ring contender going up against a high-scoring but “unlucky” team with a losing record who need wins to make the playoffs. It was a high-scoring match-up and both teams had far and away more points than the rest of the teams in their league.

In contrast, nobody has been pulling away in the Chase for the Ring standings. There hasn’t been a lot of movement in the past couple of weeks and no one is making themselves far and away the leading contender. We’ll see if that changed after Week 12.

For the purposes of this article, all statistics, ADP and Dynasty Owner roster percentages were current as of the morning of November 30th.

Dynasty Owner Player of the Week

Our twelfth Dynasty Owner Player of the Week for the 2022 season is a first-time winner of this award. He set the record for the best value as Player of the Week for the season and for a full calendar year. He was nearly 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points ahead of his closest competitor. Finally, he scored more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than any RB in Dynasty Owner this season. The winner is: Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs ($2,983,350) had himself a week in which he was far and away better than anyone else. The Raiders RB had 57.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (229 rushing yards, 6 receptions, 74 receiving yards, 2 TDs). He received a 6.0 point bonus for over 200 yards rushing and 3.0 bonus points for his 86-yard TD run to win the Raiders game against the Seahawks by a score of 40-34 in overtime. That 86 yard run was worth 23.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points on its own (8.6 for the rush itself, 6.0 for the TD, 6.0 for going over 200 rushing yards and 3.0 for the clutch score). That might be far and away the most points on a single play in Dynasty Owner history.

Jacobs scored far and away more Dynasty Owner fantasy points (19.8) than his nearest competitor, Chargers QB Justin Herbert ($6,644,688) who had 37.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Jacobs had 72 more rushing yards than his nearest competitor, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts ($1,506,292) and 86 more than Miles Sanders ($1,337,544). Sanders had an impressive game with 33.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, but Jacobs beat him by a whopping 24.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. This was by far and away Jacobs’ best career performance as his next best rushing game was in Week 5 when he had 154 rushing yards and his next best Dynasty Owner fantasy point total was in Week 7 when he had 38.5 points. In summary, it was far and away the best game of the week, month of November and possibly this entire season.

Week 12 Points: 57.3

2022 Salary: $2,983,350

Cost per Point: $52,065

Congratulations to Josh on winning your first Dynasty Owner Player of the Week honor and in fairly dominant fashion. His cost per point of $52,065 was the best this season from a Player of the Week. He’s just the seventh RB to ever win Player of the Week to put the RB position into a tie with the WR position for second most players (clearly after QB since 19 different QBs have won it).

Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week

Because this is Dynasty Owner and we’re all looking for value from the players on our roster, we also have the Value Player of the Week. The twelfth Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week makes an appearance here for the second time. He’s the second player to win this award twice during the 2022 season. The winner is Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($1,066,313) played in the first game on Thanksgiving and had to wait over 100 hours to finalize get his well-deserved second Value Player of the Week honor for the season. It was so long ago that you might have forgotten he scored 27.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week (9 receptions, 122 receiving yards, 7 rushing yards, 1 TD). He held off a pair of Philadelphia Eagles in Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts who had more Dynasty Owner fantasy points (33.0 for Sanders and 36.3 for Hurts), but not enough to overcome St. Brown’s lower salary. He also held off a pair of backup RBs who have salaries under $1 million in JaMycal Hasty ($895,000) and Ty Johnson ($672,976) who played a lot in Week 12 due to injuries.

He is the first player with a salary in excess of $1 million to win Value Player of the Year more than once. Both DK Metcalf ($1,146,513) and Dameon Pierce ($1,118,858) have won it, but St. Brown became the first $1 million player to do it twice. With two more years at his current salary and status as the Lions’ clear top WR, it’s not inconceivable that he could win more Value Player of the Week awards in the future.

Week 12 Points: 27.9

2022 Salary: $1,066,313

Cost per Point: $38,219

Congratulations Amon-Ra on the second Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week honor of your career and this season. The only other WRs with more than one Value Player of the Week award are Chris Godwin ($20,000,000) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($10,000,000). Both of them have moved on to much higher salary contracts as Amon-Ra is likely to do after the 2024 season.

Players Who Should Have Been Starters This Week

Now, we look at players who should have been one of your Starters based on their Week 12 performance. These are players who were more likely to be on your Bench or Practice Squad when they should have been in your Starting lineup.

QB: Mike White (NYJ – $2,540,000) – 34.9 points

It wasn’t his career best performance as he had 38.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 8 last season. It also wasn’t the best performance by a Jets QB this season as Joe Flacco ($3,500,000) had 40.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points back in Week 2. However, it was far and away better than any performance this year by former Jets starting QB Zach Wilson ($8,787,670), or in Wilson’s career for that matter.

White executed a solid first drive of 9 plays for 75 yards ending with a TD pass to Garrett Wilson ($5,138,502). He completed six out of seven passes for 69 yards on that drive and continued to play well all game. He finished with 34.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (315 passing yards, 2 rushing yards, 3 TDs) in his first playing time of the 2022 season. He was rostered in just over two-thirds (68.09%) of Dynasty Owner leagues at game time, 88.51% now. That percentage should approach 100% soon with his low salary and the likelihood that he’s the Jets starting QB for the rest of the season. He would have looked great in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup this week as he was QB3 for the week, behind only Herbert and Hurts.

An honorable mention goes to Patriots QB Mac Jones ($3,896,588) who had 31.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (382 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 fumble). He played so well that my friend and fellow Patriots fan Bob Siggins didn’t text once during the game to demand that Bailey Zappe ($1,076,768) be inserted at QB. That’s been happening multiple times per game since Jones returned from his ankle injury. Even though it was never going to happen, the texts kept coming. Thank you Mac Jones for playing so well and putting a stop to them this week. You deserve more but all I can offer is an honorable mention and say that you should have been in more  Dynasty Owner Starting lineups.

RB: JaMycal Hasty (JAC – $895,000) – 20.5 points

There were several low-salary backup RBs who had to step in and play a lot in Week 12 for injured starters. The best of the bunch by a few Dynasty Owner fantasy points, not far and away but still a healthy amount, was Jaguars RB JaMycal Hasty. Hasty had 20.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (DOFPs) in relief of Travis Etienne ($3,224,526) who suffered a foot injury early in the Jaguars’ victory over the Ravens. Hasty did most of his damage in the passing game with 5 receptions for 67 yards and a TD. He also had 28 rushing yards on 12 attempts. The other RBs who deserve to be acknowledged for their performances in place of starters injured in Week 12 are:

PlayerTeamSalaryReceptionsTotal YardsTDsDOFPs
Ty JohnsonNYJ$672,976178114.8
Benny SnellPIT$805,517168113.8
Zonovan KnightNYJ$705,0003103012.8

Please note that neither Samaje Perine ($1,650,000) or Rachaad White ($1,282,500) as both of them were the starting RB for their team all game, unlike Hasty and the others listed.

WR: Isaiah McKenzie (BUF – $2,200,000) – 22.3 points

We can easily divide Isaiah McKenzie’s 2022 season into three separate parts for the first year starting WR. First, we have the four bad games in which he’s barely worth a Bench spot and usually has a reception or two, but not much else. In three games, he’s been average with between 9.0 and 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and contributing in three ways, but on a small scale.

Finally, we have the part when he plays great. Since he’s appearing in this section, it’s obvious that this week was one of those games. He’s had three of them, including his 22.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance on Thanksgiving when he is electric and contributes for the Bills as a receiver and either a runner or returner. He has three games with 10.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points and in all those games, he has a TD, 4 or more receptions and some additional yardage rushing or returning. On Thanksgiving, he was the Bills’ leading receiver and had 6 receptions for 96 yards and a TD plus 2 rushing attempts for 7 yards. These weeks are the ones you want McKenzie in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup, but figuring out when they are coming is the hard part.

TE:    Josh Oliver (BAL – $1,062,711) – 17.6 points

This spot was definitely for Josh Oliver until Monday night when Jelani Woods ($1,343,118) almost caused me to split it. Oliver is the pick because he had more points than the other options, including Woods, and is rostered in the lowest percentage of leagues (1.7%). Oliver was a little bit, definitely not far and away, better than a few other TEs who unexpectedly caught a TD and had double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Oliver has to compete with Mark Andrews ($14,000,000) and rookie Isaiah Likely ($1,041,085) and had actually carved out a small niche with 18.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (7 receptions, 54 receiving yards, 1 TD) before exploding in Week 12 with 17.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (4 receptions, 76 receiving yards, 1 TD). Based on his low roster percentage, almost nobody saw this coming and had him in their Starting lineup.

Honorable mention to Indianapolis TE Jelani Woods who splits time with Mo Alie-Cox ($5,850,000) and Kylen Granson ($1,046,592). It’s pretty much anyone’s guess who will play and get receptions on a weekly basis. Believe me, I’ve tried and failed because it’s not easy. This week, Woods had his third game with over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. In those three games, he has scored 45.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, including 16.8 (8 receptions, 98 receiving yards, 1 fumble). In the other seven games, he has a total of only 6.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and four games with the dreaded Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). He should have been in your Starting lineup if you dared to try and if to play him.

K: Matthew Wright (PIT – $895,000) – 12.0 points

Wright has bounced around the NFL a bit this year. He was released by Jacksonville during the off-season, signed by Kansas City to the practice squad and then ended up kicking for two games in place of an injured Harrison Butker ($4,055,000). Pittsburgh signed him off the Kansas City practice squad for their active roster to replace Chris Boswell ($4,201,500) for their Week 10 game versus New Orleans. He may not be better, but he is far and away much cheaper than Butker and Boswell.

He has kicked well the past two weeks with 11.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last week and 12.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 12. He made all six of his kicks last week, but only needed four kicks (3 FGs and a PAT) to get more points this week. That’s because he had two long FGs (45 and 52 yards) worth a total of 9.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and a 25-yarder worth 2.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points plus the one PAT worth 1.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point. That equals 12.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, so he was worth a spot in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup.

Players Who Should Have Been on the Bench or Practice Squad

For every player who should have been in your Starting lineup but wasn’t, we have at least one highly drafted or ranked player who probably was in your Starting lineup, but scored few, or no Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 12. All of them should have been riding your Bench or hanging out on the Practice Squad.

QB: No one

This is completely unprecedented. Out of the top 15 QB, none really had a bad game and wasn’t worth being in your Starting lineup. Of course, some QBs had more points than others and weren’t in the top 12 QBs for the week, but I’m having a hard time putting someone here who scored more than 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Here are the only candidates:

  • Justin Fields ($4,717,989) didn’t play.
  • The current top 12 QB with the fewest Dynasty Owner fantasy points was Tua Tagovailoa ($7,568,859) who had 20.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, mainly because he was pulled out of the Dolphins’ game early in the second half.
  • Aaron Rodgers ($33,500,000) did have only 12.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points  got injured and replaced by Jordan Love ($3,095,863). However, Rodgers is QB15 and shouldn’t really be in your Starting lineup.
  • Daniel Jones ($6,416,014) is QB16 and “only” scored 17.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He was a mid-range Bench option, which is exactly where he should be.

I can’t put any of those QBs here and the rest scored more than 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Not fair to label any of them as Bench QBs this week, so I won’t.

RB: Dameon Pierce (HOU – $1,118,858) – 4.6 points

This was his second bad game in a row after he scored 3.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 11. Last week, he tied his career low with 12 touches and this week, he had only eight as the Texans got down 30-0 to the Dolphins by halftime. Pierce only had 4.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (8 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 8 receiving yards). These past two weeks have by far and away been the worst two weeks in a row in his rookie season as he has failed to crack 10 yards either rushing or receiving either week. At least in Week 1 when he had just 4.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, he had 33 rushing yards on 11 carries. In the past two weeks, it’s been 8 rushing yards on 10 carries versus Washington and then 8 rushing yards on 5 carries against Miami. The highly touted rookie is down to RB18 in Dynasty Owner and wasn’t worth a Starting lineup spot in Week 12.

WR: Curtis Samuel (WAS – $11,500,000) – 1.3 points

Usually when a WR has no targets on offense, he gets no points, but Commanders Curtis Samuel had 4 rushing attempts for 13 yards, so he scored 1.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 12. It was the first time this season that he has been held without a reception, so he had his lowest output of Dynasty Owner fantasy points for the season. It wasn’t far and away his worst performance of the season as he did have just 2.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 6 versus Chicago. Even with this poor performance, Samuel is still WR24 for the season. He has played one more game than most WRs so he’s likely to slip out of the top 24 if he doesn’t have a solid Week 13. Still, he was likely in many Starting lineups in Week 12 when he should have been on the Bench.

TE: Tyler Higbee (LAR – $7,250,000) and Juwan Johnson (NO – $895,000) – 0.0 points

It’s weeks like this that makes it clear the TE hierarchy in the NFL and Dynasty Owner. At the top we have Travis Kelce ($14,312,500) who is far and away the top TE with 241.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. The next grouping has Mark Andrews ($14,000,000) almost 100 points behind with 143.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and T.J. Hockenson ($4,955,306) with 136.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Both Zach Ertz ($10,550,000) and Dallas Goedert ($14,250,000) would be with Andrews and Hockenson if they hadn’t missed the last two games with injuries. It’s pretty much a group of ten similar TEs after that, separated by less than 15.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, and where it gets difficult to trust someone to be in your Starting lineup every week.

Both of the TEs who had a Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) are in this group. Higbee has five games with double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points and Johnson has four games. Those are the games that you want them in your Starting lineup. Both of them also had a Blutarsky one other time this season. It was Week 3 versus Carolina for Johnson and Week 9 versus Tampa Bay for Higbee. Just like this week, those are the games you want them on your Practice Squad, not even your Bench. Welcome to the life of a Dynasty Owner without a top TE option in 2022.

K: Brett Maher (DAL – $965,000) – 2.0 points

Brett Maher had far and away the biggest swing in Dynasty Owner fantasy points among kickers over the past two weeks. Last week, he had 21.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and was tied with Tyler Bass ($869,804) as the top kicker with 89.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for the season. In Week 12, he only had 2.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points on Thanksgiving as he made 4 PATs, but missed his only FG attempt from 46 yards away. That dropped him down to the fourth highest scoring kicker for the 2022 season. It’s surprising that his Dynasty Owners should have put him on their Bench after such a high-scoring game the prior week.

Maher wasn’t the worst kicker in Week 12 as Brandon McManus ($4,300,000) of the Broncos had only 1.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point. However, being the kicker for a terrible offense like the Broncos has put McManus well outside for the season with just 61.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He has only attempted 13 PATs compared to twice as many FG attempts (26) and should probably not be in your Starting lineup until Denver’s offense moves the ball better.

Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week Recap

The Oracle 🙌 vs. Space Cowboys – League # 111014

In this week’s Match-up of the Week, an “unlucky” team had a second chance to defeat a team in the top 100 of the Chase for the Ring. A win would keep The Oracle 🙌 in the playoff hunt and while a loss would not knock them out, but it would make it much more difficult for them to reach the playoffs. Let’s see what happened.

As usual for this team, The Oracle 🙌 scored a lot of points, but was “unlucky” in their match-up and lost to the Space Cowboys by a score of 189.1 to 163.88. Space Cowboys were the highest scoring team in League #111014 and hopefully they put that additional $2 million Dynasty Dollars for being the top scorer to good use. They might need it as they are still in third place at 9-3 behind Jersey strong and Phantom power who both have 10-2 records. Space Cowboys are also far and away the top scoring team in the league with 1,863.6 points. They face Jersey strong in Week 13 and could move into the top two and be in position for a playoff bye with a victory. It shows how important winning your weekly match-up is as Space Cowboys are in 46th place in the Chase for the Ring and moving up, but still need more victories to avoid a first round playoff match-up.

The Oracle 🙌 is second in the league with 1,711.1 points, but with a 5-7 record. That put them in seventh place and out of the playoffs if they started this week. They still have two more games to go, and the sixth place team (Usual Suspects) is 6-6. The Oracle 🙌 has a schedule that is favorable as they play two teams below them in the standings in the final two games. However, with how “unlucky” they have been this season, who knows what might happen.

Space Cowboys had the Player of the Week (Josh Jacobs) and his 57.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points as their Starting FLEX player. He was assisted by double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points from every other player in their Starting lineup, except TE Mike Gesicki ($10,931,000) who had a Blutarsky. They left a few points on the Bench as Justin Herbert was their Bench QB and he scored 37.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Their Starting QB was Tua Tagovailoa who had a good game with 20.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. However, Herbert was far and away a better player to have in their Starting lineup. Fortunately, it only hurt their Chase for the Ring standings position, not their weekly match-up.

Of course, The Oracle 🙌 was “unlucky” and played the team with Jacobs. They had a solid performance from their entire Starting lineup, led by Patrick Mahomes ($45,000,000) with 23.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and Rhamondre Stevenson ($1,057,264) with 20.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. They did have two players on their Bench who scored more than a pair in their Starting lineup. However, just switching Miles Sanders in place of Jonathan Taylor ($1,957,287) at RB and Christian Watson ($2,310,258) in place of A.J. Brown ($1,413,092) at WR would have only yielded an extra 17.7 points and left them 7.52 points shy of a victory. Even without those changes, The Oracle 🙌 moved up quite a bit in the Chase for the Ring standings and is now in 235th place.

If you have a Week 13 match-up that is shaping up to be a good one, then let me know on Twitter (@SteveVT33). A match-up or two between teams battling for a playoff spot or a first round playoff bye preferred as those should be the focus of the next couple of weeks. Your team doesn’t need to be Chase for the Ring contender for me to use your Match-up. A few people submitted match-ups last week and it would be nice to have multiple ones to choose from again this week.

Chase for the Ring Leaderboard

As mentioned earlier, Space Cowboys moved up to 46th place in the Chase for the Ring standings. Not enough to make it on to the Top 10 Leaderboard, but they did move up 28 places. Let’s find out if anyone scored enough points to move up into the top 10. Those teams are far and away the best ones in Dynasty Owner right now, but it doesn’t mean they will be at the end of the season. They still need to win their League to make it to the final Leaderboard after Week 17.

It’s the same ten teams, just in a different order this week. Except Crangis McBasketball who has held on to 10th place for the third week in a row. It was only by 0.3 points over the Clara Strong 💪 team in League #34662 so it’ll be interesting to see if they hang on for another week, move up, or move out of the top 10.

Blaze’s Backyard Burners stayed on top for a second consecutive week, but their lead shrunk from 24.9 points to only 8.8 points. The second place team is now juan blanco who moved ahead of Dynasty|Trade|School (D|T|S). They trailed Dynasty|Trade|School (D|T|S) by 17.9 points last week and are now in front of them by 25.2 points. The gap between juan blanco and Blaze’s Backyard Burners was reduced from 42.8 points to only 8.8 points in just one week.

Stayner and The Oracle 🙌 flipped spots with Stayner now in fourth place and The Oracle 🙌 in fifth place. The Oracle 🙌 had steadily climbed the standings for several weeks before moving back down a spot. The same thing happened for the two Clara Strong 💪 teams. The one in League #28280 is now in sixth place, having swapped places with the one in League #27448 that is now in seventh place. The Road Warriors are up another spot and sit in eighth place, while Thee Camel Toe Jockey dropped another spot into ninth place. It’s the fourth straight week that The Road Warriors have moved up the leaderboard, at the same time as Thee Camel Toe Jockey has moved down.

The Chase for the Ring is close as the top five teams are separated by 80.3 points, while the tenth place team is only 80.1 points out of fifth place. The playoffs will start to cause teams to drop out so enjoy this lack of movement on the leaderboard while it lasts.

Conclusions

Josh Jacobs may have had the most dominant week in Dynasty Owner. He was definitely far and away better than everyone else and our Player of the Week. The top QBs all played like top QBs and showed why they are far and away better than some of the new signal callers for some struggling teams (with the exception of Mike White for the Jets).

Our Match-up of the Week loser is probably far and away the leader in the competition for the “unluckiest” team this year. That’s hard to determine statistically, but it’s hard to imagine another team with a losing record that is only about 100 points out of the top 100 in the Chase.

While this Week 12 recap article is late, the rest of them so far this week after Thanksgiving have been on time and should continue to do so for the rest of the week. The Free Agent Auction targets from Jay Pounds came out early on Tuesday afternoon. The last installment in the Opportunity Is (Almost) Everything series by Matt Morrison – The Jerk will look at TEs and appear on Wednesday. It’s back to only one Thursday Night Football game and Matt will preview that for everyone on Thursday. My Week 13 preview article will appear on Thursday as well and the Week 13 recommendations go back to their usual Friday spot.

Everyone can listen to the Dynasty Owner podcast with me and Jay that is scheduled to be posted on Friday AM. We did take the week of Thanksgiving off, while the Dynasty Owner Livestream did not. The Livestream is back this week on Wednesday at 12:30 PM (Eastern). Tim and I will answer trade and other questions and talk about Dynasty Owner and fantasy football in general. You can also catch it afterwards on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel if you can’t watch us live. Finally, don’t forget to follow Dynasty Owner on Twitter as well. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Free Agent Auction Targets – Week 13

By: Jay Pounds (@JayPoundsNFL)

Dynasty Owners, it is dumpster diving time again! Surprisingly this week there are actually a few players who should be able to contribute immediately for your teams. The running back position is starting to dwindle down and if you have been hit with the injury bug, I may have a few names for you. Just look below.

As always before jumping into the free agents for the week lets hit a quick recap of Week 12’s biggest surprises.

I will start with the G.O.A.T., Tom Brady ($15,000,000) who I thought was starting to find his stride that would only be helped by a terrible Cleveland defense. That was not the case and Brady and the Buccaneers left Cleveland without a victory. They still sit atop of the weak NFC South and will almost certainly be in the playoffs when all is said and done. Can they turn things around or is it too late? Only time will tell.

The Seahawks have been a hot topic all season long, but it seems as if reality is starting to smack them in the face after a tough loss against the lowly Raiders. Josh Jacobs ($2,983,350) had an insane day against what was a tough Seahawks defense thus far and may have exposed them long term. It will be interesting to see where Seattle goes from here, but I will surely be watching to find out.

The last game I want to touch on is the Ravens vs. Jaguars. The Jaguars mounted an incredible comeback against the Ravens whose defense is no longer a strong suit of the team. The Ravens are now tied with the Bengals at the top of the AFC North, but if they go on to lose the division this loss will stand out big time.

The players listed below are in no order and are less than 85% rostered in Dynasty Owner with a salary of $8,000,000 or less.

  1. Mike White (QB – NYJ) – 1 year/$2,540,000 – 68.09% Rostered

The first candidate on today’s list is someone whom most all of us should be familiar with. In 2021, Mike White filled in for Zach Wilson ($8,787,670) and went completely berserk in his first start throwing for over 400 yards passing. After White’s first start in 2021, he struggled and was eventually replaced by Wilson when Wilson returned from injury. Fast forward to 2022 and White is once again the starting quarterback for the New York Jets and the job appears to now be his to lose versus being a placeholder last season. In Week 12, White had a great game and got the Jets offense going for the first time in a couple of weeks finishing with 315 yards passing and 3 touchdowns plus 2 rushing yards, good enough for 34.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. White not only had a big day himself but helped the Jets talented young receivers, Garrett Wilson ($5,183,502) and Elijah Moore ($2,235,107), have big days as well and making their Dynasty Owners happy.

  • Zay Jones (WR – JAC) – 3 years/$8,000,000 – 64.68% Rostered

One of these weeks, the season is either going to end or you guys are going to get sick and tired of seeing Zay Jones on this list and will pick him up to shut me up. Before I start in on my 75th Zay Jones segment of the season I must say I am no Jones truther and hated this signing before the season. With that said, Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372) has taken a big step forward and it has paid off huge for the receivers in Duval. I have said a few times this season that Jones would need to find the end zone to have a big day and in Week 12 he proved me completely wrong. Jones finished his day against the Baltimore Ravens with 11 catches for 145 yards, scoring 27.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. As crazy as it sounds when the Jacksonville offense is on Lawrence can support two receivers, but that is a gamble as we have seen several times this season.

  • JaMycal Hasty (RB – JAC) – 1 year/$895,000 – 82.13% Rostered

Up next, we have Zay Jones teammate JaMycal Hasty. Hasty is a name we all know from his days with the 49ers, but he has been virtually non-existent since he was stuck behind James Robinson ($763,333) and Travis Etienne ($3,224,526). As we seen in San Francisco, Hasty has a ton of talent and has a skillset to be a bell cow back with the main questions being his durability and efficiency. In Week 12. Etienne went down with an injury and is likely to either miss or be limited in his upcoming game paving the way for Hasty to see a huge workload. After the Etienne injury, Hasty filled in, in a big way finishing the day with 28 rushing yards, 67 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown scoring 20.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. With a full week of practice under his belt and a game against the Detroit Lions, Hasty is in a great position to succeed in Week 13.

  • Zonavon Knight (RB – NYJ) – 1 year/$705,000 – 0.43% Rostered

Any of you awesome folks out there who read all the Dynasty Owner articles may remember this name! I had Zonavon Knight listed in an article I did just over a year ago previewing the 2022 draft class. Knight had a ton of talent coming out of N.C. State, but ended up going undrafted and is now out to prove his doubters wrong. In Week 12, Knight filled in for James Robinson who happened to be a healthy scratch for the Jets. This should mean a big workload for Knight until Michael Carter ($1,071,842) is fully healthy.

In Week 12, Knight stepped up in the Jets victory over Chicago, finishing the day with 14 carries for 69 rushing yards and 3 catches for 34 yards in an impressive debut for the undrafted rookie. If Knight can build upon the success he found in his debut, he just may stick in the NFL long-term. Knight is also cheap and on a one-year deal making him a player with almost no risk if you pick him up.

  • Bryce Perkins (QB – LAR) – 1 year/$742,500 – 31.91% Rostered

The last player on this list was placed here out of pure speculation that Matthew Stafford ($27,000,000) will likely miss the remainder of the season. I know there are several contradictory reports out there, but Stafford has suffered two concussions in as many games and the Rams have zero shot at the playoffs. Would the Rams really put Stafford out there to possibly suffer a third concussion during a lost season? I am not buying it and think we have seen the last of the Super Bowl winning quarterback until 2023 kicks off.

In Week 12, Perkins did not do anything special, but it is his rushing upside that makes me think he is worth a look. Perkins finished his debut with just 100 passing yards, but he was able to find Van Jefferson ($1,402,784) for a touchdown and added 44 yards on the ground. If the Rams do go with Perkins the rest of the way, I would expect them to utilize his rushing ability much more than we saw in his starting lineup debut.

We also have a bonus target from Monday Night Football.

  • Benny Snell (RB – PIT) – 1 year/$805,517 – 43.4% Rostered

I honestly am not too sure how to feel on Benny Snell moving forward but I put him on here because he is a Steeler who has a low roster share and looked good in relief last night. While Snell looked good against the Colts, I am nowhere near sold on his usage moving forward. Rookie Jaylen Warren ($857,333) was held out of the Monday night showdown, but I expect him to be ready to go come Week 13. I also am not sure if Najee Harris ($3,261,862) will miss any time as he went down to an abdominal injury, but returned to the field a couple of times before being ruled out for the rest of the game. If both of Snell’s fellow backfield mates miss Sunday’s game, he is well worth a look but if either of these guys are able to go on Sunday I would advise staying away, especially on a bad Pittsburgh offense.

Thank you all for reading and good luck with your Week 13 matchups! Don’t forget to check out the other articles from Steve, Matt, and Nate, as well as the Livestream, Champions podcast, and the podcast with Steve and myself. Stay safe out there and good luck on your 2022 Chase for the Ring!

Monday Night Football Preview – Week 12

Steelers at Colts

By: Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl)

What to Watch For

The Colts have looked much better since Jeff Saturday took over as head coach and I will be watching closely to see how he has evolved over the past couple of weeks. Man, that is one crazy sentence that I just put on paper. As for the rest of the Colts’ team, I will be watching their two offensive studs, Jonathan Taylor  ($1,957,287), and Michael Pittman ($2,153,212) closely. Both Taylor and Pittman have struggled compared with their early season predictions, but have bounced back in a positive way since Saturday took over.

As for my Steelers’, I will be watching our young quarterback, Kenny Pickett ($3,516,976) extremely close. If Pickett does not show serious improvement throughout the remainder of the season, and the Steelers pick near the top of the 2023 NFL Draft, I see a real scenario where the Steelers move on from Pickett after one season. Remember Kevin Colbert selected Pickett on his way out the door as General Manager and the new sheriff in charge (Omar Kahn) may have different plans should Pickett continue to fail. Consider that a bold prediction!

The last player I will be keeping an eye on is George Pickens ($1,688,045). I think Pickens has the potential to be the WR1 overall at some point in his career, but I feel he will have a tough night tonight for two reasons. The offense Pickens plays on paired with the likely fact that he will see a ton of Stephon Gilmore in coverage tonight.

Jay’s Monday Night Prediction

Do I have a ton of faith in this prediction? No, not at all but a fan can dream. Right? The 2022 Steelers have been a horrible football team and at this point, I am ok with the losses piling up to get a better draft selection. The Colts rely heavily on the running game when they play well, and I just don’t see that working out well against T.J. Watt and company. If Jonathan Taylor gets going early, it will be a long night for the Steelers. If the Steelers force Matt Ryan ($30,000,000) to beat them, I believe they will pull out a close win.

Over/Under Projections – Steelers

PlayerPositionSalaryProjected PointsOver/Under
Kenny PickettQB$3,516,97617.0Over

Kenny Pickett has struggled on the field, but he has put up over 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in each of his last two games. While I don’t see Pickett having a huge game, I do see him staying around the 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point mark. Over for Pickett.

PlayerPositionSalaryProjected PointsOver/Under
Najee HarrisRB$3,261,86214.5Over

Harris had his first big performance of the season last week against the Bengals and I believe he will continue to build upon that this week. While I am not expecting a huge day on the ground, I do think Harris will be more involved in the passing game. Over for Najee.

PlayerPositionSalaryProjected PointsOver/Under
George PickensWR$1,688,04511.1Under

Well, this sucks! I love Pickens and need him to do well for me in an important matchup, but I think he is going to draw Stephon Gilmore in coverage which is a tough task for any rookie. I hope he proves me wrong, but for now I am going with the Under for Pickens.

PlayerPositionSalaryProjected PointsOver/Under
Diontae JohnsonWR$1,070,24110.1Over

I know Johnson has struggled horribly this season, but let’s not forget he just signed a new contract extension and will have to be involved at some point. Pickett says he has a plan to get Johnson more involved and for some reason I am trusting it. Over for Diontae.

PlayerPositionSalaryProjected PointsOver/Under
Pat FreiermuthTE$1,070,24111.5Over

With such low projected totals for the Steelers’ starters, Pat Freiermuth will be the fourth Steelers’ player I have scoring Over their projected point total. Freiermuth has been a reliable target for Pickett since he took over, and I don’t see that changing in 2022.

Over/Under Projections – Colts

PlayerPositionSalaryProjected PointsOver/Under
Matt RyanQB$30,000,00018.4Over

Matt Ryan seems to be a tough cookie to crack in terms of predictions, but tonight he goes up against a bad Steelers’ secondary. I don’t see Ryan having a massive game, but I do feel he will do enough to hit the Over.

PlayerPositionSalaryProjected PointsOver/Under
Jonathan TaylorRB$1,957,28716.8Under

Despite the early season struggles, I still feel Jonathan Taylor is the best running back in football right now. He has looked much better recently, but I believe the Steelers will sell out to stop him. Under for Taylor but not by much.

PlayerPositionSalaryProjected PointsOver/Under
Michael PittmanWR$2,153,21214.9Over

As I mentioned earlier Pittman hasn’t had the season we all hoped for, but there is still time for him to turn things around. Pittman was solid last week, and I am expecting more of the same tonight. Over for Pittman.

PlayerPositionSalaryProjected PointsOver/Under
Parris CampbellWR$1,193,98412.1Under

When healthy Parris Campbell seems to be a reliable fantasy option. The problem with Campbell this week is that he missed time with an illness. If Campbell is less than 100%, I am going with the Under.

PlayerPositionSalaryProjected PointsOver/Under
Mo Alie-CoxTE$5,850,0004.6Under

It always feels disrespectful to predict the Under with such a low point total, but Alie-Cox is always a hit or miss player. He will either blow this projection out of the water or he will do absolutely nothing at all. Under for Alie-Cox.

Dynasty Owner Games of the Week

Every week, I will pick at least one Dynasty Owner game that is close in score and will be decided during Monday Night Football. If you happen to find yourself in this situation on Sunday night, please get ahold of me on Twitter (@jaypoundsnfl) and I will gladly feature your game here.

Game 1 – League #30551

Green Mountain Grizzlies – No one left in Starting lineup or Bench left to play

KC DC – Alec Pierce on Bench left to play

If you have not noticed by now, I love games that come down to Bench scoring. In our first Game of the Week, we have the Green Mountain Grizzles going up against KC DC in what will likely be an important outcome for Green Mountain Grizzlies’ playoff hopes. The Grizzlies are currently sitting in sixth place with three teams in total at 6-5. KC DC has no shot at making the playoffs, but a win would make for a nice consolation prize towards the end of the season. A week like this should also increase KC DC’s hopes of winning the bonus rookie draft pick (1.13) via the Losers’ Bracket tournament. Fortunately for the Grizzlies, I think they will pull this game out by the slimmest of margins. Good luck to both of my league mates in tonight’s matchup.

Game 2 – League #58989

Noblesville Indians – No one left in Starting lineup or Bench left to play

juan blanco – Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman in Starting lineup left to play

In our second Game of the Week, we have a game with huge implications for the Dynasty Owners in League #58989. I believe this game will be much closer than the experts think as I see it being decided by a point or two vs. the projections having it at just under 10 points. If Noblesville Indians find a way to win, they will be sitting in prime position to claim one of the league’s bye weeks in the playoffs. If juan blanco pulls out a win, the bye week will be up for grabs with four teams making a case. Good luck to both of you in tonight’s matchup.

Value of the Game Recap

Week 11 ProjectedReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
Rondale Moore671119.1
Week 11 WinnerReceptionsReceiving YardsReturn YardsTDsDOFP
Greg Dortch910315019.7

I can’t lie to you all, this was the most painful loss of the season for me as Rondale Moore ($1,731,060) went down with an injury early in the game only to see his replacement, Greg Dortch ($895,000) go nuts, scoring close to the point total I had projected for Moore. Had Moore stayed in the game, I believe he would have had similar numbers to Dortch and given me a much-needed victory, but that is life in the NFL. Here is to another week of trying with an even tougher selection process.

Overall Record: 5-6

Value of the Game

Week 12 Winner – Diontae Johnson

Week 12 ProjectedReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
Diontae Johnson654117.4

Another Monday, another tough decision for me when it comes to choosing a Value of the Game. For once I was hoping the football gods would just give me an obvious choice, but that is nowhere near the case. In tonight’s game I had five players who I seriously considered choosing and those players were Diontae Johnson, Jonathan Taylor, George Pickens, Parris Campbell, and Pat Freiermuth. I ultimately ended up choosing Diontae Johnson despite his struggles most of this season. I have heard a ton of noise out of Pittsburgh that they are going to get him more involved and I’m hoping it will pay off with a correct selection that I desperately need. I’m a gambling man tonight!

Be sure to check out all our upcoming content this season. We will have several articles, podcasts, and the Livestream on Wednesday for everyone each week. Thank you all for reading and I hope your teams killed it this week. Stay safe out there and good luck on your 2022 Chase for the Ring!

Week 12 Surprise and Totally Predictable Event – Lots of Football

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

I was able to watch lots of football over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. With family activities combined with nice Sunday weather for most of the NFL season, it doesn’t always happen that I’m able to sit down and watch an entire block of games. It was the most football that I’ve watched live this whole season. Because of Thanksgiving dinner, clean-up and having people over, I missed the second half of the Bills-Lions game and the entire Cowboys-Giants game. However, I did watch the entire Patriots-Vikings game that night to make up for it. On Sunday, I watched a lot of the Red Zone Channel plus flipped to actual games when one game was more compelling than the others being shown on the Red Zone Channel. Since the Patriots had played already and it was raining at my house all day, I was free to watch pretty much whatever game I wanted.

The ending of the late afternoon Sunday games were the most exciting as the Red Zone Channel had all four games on at once and I wanted to see what was happening in all four games. That’s one of the best parts about playing fantasy football in general and Dynasty Owner in particular. I’m able to enjoy multiple games because I have something at stake in almost all of them. Since I set full lineups and want to win every game, I’m also rooting for positive things to happen for my players. I like that. It’s much better than rooting against your players or having good players on your team, but not having them in your Starting lineup, or even on your Dynasty Owner Bench to enjoy. It stinks at times when they don’t play well, but more often, it’s a lot of fun.

In honor of the fact that I was able to watch lots of football this week, I’m going to present more Surprises and more Totally Predictable Events than usual. It’s not that every week doesn’t have a lot of them, but I was able to see more live than usual, so they made a bigger impression this week.

For the purposes of this article, all statistics, ADP and Dynasty Owner rostered percentages were current as of the afternoon of November 28th.

Surprise of the Week – It’s More Than One Surprise

This section is where I highlight one fantasy football surprise of the week. It’ll be something that nobody really saw coming. It could be a good or bad surprise depending on the week. Usually, it’s one surprise, except for Week 10 when we had Too Many Surprises. As I already wrote, the surprise is that I have more than one surprise this week.

Surprise #1: Jimmy Garoppolo’s record as 49ers’ starting QB

Believe it or not, Jimmy G has been as good or better as a starting QB for the 49ers than Hall of Famers Joe Montana and Steve Young over their first 59 games. I saw this graphic while watching the 49ers defeat the Saints on Sunday afternoon and was stunned by it.

Not sure why they chose 59 games as the benchmark, but that’s another story. The fact is that Jimmy’s record is the same as Young’s (40-19) and better than Montana’s (37-22). Montana had a tough start and was 2-6 as a starter in his first two seasons (1979 and 1980) as the 49ers weren’t very good (6-10 in 1980 when he started seven games).

The fact that Jimmy G has a good record as a starter isn’t surprising, but the fact that he’s been as good as Young and better than Montana at the beginning of his 49ers’ career is surprising.

Surprise #2: Skyy Moore wears #24 for Kansas City

When I saw Skyy Moore ($1,612,625) take a short pitch pass from Patrick Mahomes ($45,000,000) during the Chiefs’ game against the Rams, I thought he was a running back. For years, running backs in the NFL wore numbers from 20 to 49. Defensive backs did as well, but since the Chiefs were on offense, I thought Moore was a RB and not a DB. I hadn’t seen him on the field in the other parts of Chiefs’ games that I had watched so I wasn’t aware. I’ve gotten used to seeing defensive players and running backs with single digit numbers, but it was the first time seeing a WR wearing a number like #24 and it was strange and surprising.

Moore hasn’t played much and has been a disappointment for his Dynasty Owners who likely spent a late first round rookie draft pick (ADP 10.7), or an eighth round startup draft pick (ADP 90.5) on him. He’s only scored 31.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (17 receptions, 205 receiving yards, 136 return yards, 3 lost fumbles), but has at least played better in the past two weeks with 11.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 11 and 5.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week. He also has two weeks with negative points (-2.7 in Week 3 and -3.0 in Week 7) which hasn’t helped. Hopefully Moore plays better, and I get used to seeing him on the field wearing #24.

Surprise #3: Ronald Jones actually played in his first game for the Chiefs

This is related to the Skyy Moore surprise as when I saw Moore wearing #24, I thought it might be Ronald Jones ($1,500,000). Turns out Jones wears #2 as I saw him play as well in the Chiefs’ Week 12 game. He saw his first action for the team with Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($2,705,393) going on Injured Reserve. He had 4.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (12 rushing yards, 1 reception, 22 receiving yards) in his first game and may have earned more playing time. It was only 11 snaps, but that’s better for him and his Dynasty Owners than zero.

Surprise #4: Ronald Jones is still rostered in 62.98% of Dynasty Owner leagues

Maybe it should have been #3b, but regardless of numbering, I can’t believe that Jones is still rostered in that many Dynasty Owner leagues after being a healthy scratch for the Chiefs’ first 10 games of the season. I know his salary is inexpensive at $1.5 million, he’s only 25 years old, and people drafted him way too high (ADP 144.1) in 2022 startup drafts or in the past (ADPs of 116.0 in 2019, 87.5 in 2020 and 86.7 in 2021), but how many games did his Dynasty Owners need to see his name on the inactive list before they drop him. I get hanging on to him, but after not playing for about 5 or 6 weeks and clearly being passed by rookie Isaih Pacheco ($934,777), I probably would have given up. Fortunately, I’ve never really been a Jones fan, so I don’t have him in any Dynasty Owner leagues (or any leagues at all). It’ll be interesting if his roster percentage goes up after he actually got to play some in Week 12.

Surprise #5: Seattle has multiple Dynasty Owner relevant players every week

This is a repeat from Week 9, but it’s still happening, and I’m still surprised. People may have forgotten about Seattle since they played in Munich in Week 10, so the game was on at 9:30 AM (Eastern) and were on bye in Week 11, but Geno Smith ($3,500,000) continues to put up solid Dynasty Owner fantasy points on a weekly basis. He has scored more than 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in eight out of 11 weeks this season. He’s QB6 right now for the season and should be in your Starting lineup if you have him on your Dynasty Owner roster. Not only that, but he’s helping to make multiple Seahawks’ players worth being in your Starting lineup on a weekly basis. In Week 10, it was the following four players (plus Smith):

PlayerPositionSalaryDOFPs
Geno SmithQB$3,500,00024.9
Kenneth WalkerRB$2,110,39513.2
Tyler LockettWR$17,250,00013.2
DK MetcalfWR$1,146,51313.1
Marquise GoodwinWR$1,272,50011.8

In Week 11, it’s pretty much the same players, except removing Marquise Goodwin ($1,272,500) and adding it Travis Homer ($665,704):

PlayerPositionSalaryDOFPs
Geno SmithQB$3,500,00025.6
DK MetcalfWR$1,146,51320.0
Kenneth WalkerRB$2,110,39516.9
Tyler LockettWR$17,250,00015.8
Travis HomerRB$665,70413.3

For the season, it’s been this way nearly every week with several players, besides Smith, scoring double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Lockett and Metcalf are pretty consistent with nine and seven double-digit games respectively and Walker has scored that many Dynasty Owner fantasy points for seven consecutive weeks (since Week 5).

Surprise #6: Taylor Heinicke wins another game as Washington’s QB

The Washington Commanders are 5-1 with Taylor Heinicke ($2,375,000) as their Starting QB this season. His record as a starting NFL QB is now over .500 at 12-11. That includes losing his only NFL start as a member of the Carolina Panthers in 2018 and the 2020 playoff loss to the G.O.A.T. Tom Brady ($15,000,000) and the eventual Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He’s got a long way to go to have as good of a starting QB record as Jimmy G, but he’s better than Carson Wentz ($32,000,000), who is now the backup QB in Washington.

I’m not recommending that you put him in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup, although I did do it in Week 8, and he was good enough to be a Starter that week with 28.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. The other five weeks haven’t been as good and he’s only averaging 16.05 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in his six starts. Still, he’s been good enough to win games for the Commanders and that’s been a surprise.

Surprise #7: Two fumble recoveries by offensive players for touchdowns

I’m not sure when the last time there were two fumble recoveries by offensive players resulting in touchdowns in the same week, but I’d guess it’s been a while. It’s obviously surprising and also surprising that each fumble recovery had a different outcome for Dynasty Owners.

Sam Darnold was stripped of the football and fumbled on a rushing attempt at the goal line in the Panthers’ 23-10 victory over the Denver Broncos. He recovered and rolled into the end zone for what is being called a 1-yard TD run. If you didn’t see the game live or the highlights, here’s what happened. In every place I’ve seen, Darnold is getting credited for a 1-yard TD run. For his few Dynasty Owners (7.66% rostered), Darnold scored 5.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points on the play (1 rushing yard, 1 TD, 1 fumble). Honestly, only Sam Darnold could score less than 6.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points on a TD.

In the Tennessee-Cincinnati game, Derrick Henry ($12,500,000) caught a short screen pass, evaded some tackles and rumbled down the field. He fumbled at about the 3-yard line, the ball went into the end zone and was recovered by Treylon Burks ($3,592,398). Here’s a description of what happened and a video. Henry got credit for a reception, 69 receiving yards and a fumble which was 6.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for the play. Burks got nothing. It was his first NFL touchdown, but his Dynasty Owners didn’t get a point since there’s nothing in the Dynasty Owner Constitution that gives points to players who recover fumbles or score a TD on a fumble recovery. Thanks to The Oracle 🙌 who asked me about the scoring for the play in a league chat. It made me wonder and check the live scoring and Constitution.

Surprise #8: Justin Tucker missed a field goal attempt

That’s right. Justin Tucker ($5,000,000) missed a field goal attempt. He’s only missed a kick 13 times in 294 attempts across the 60 games that he has played during Dynasty Owner’s history.

It was a 67-yard FG attempt, but as I was watching it, I totally thought that he’d make it. After all, he’s 16 for 21 from 50+ yards in Dynasty Owner history and made a 66-yard FG last season. Not only did he miss, but it was short by at least a yard or two. That made it doubly surprising.

Totally Predictable Event of the Week – More Than One Is So Predictable

This section is where I highlight one totally predictable thing that might be surprising to other people, but might be something that I’ve been believing and saying for a while, but many people haven’t been listening or agreeing with me on it. Since I got to watch a lot of NFL games on Thursday and Sunday and had more than one surprise, it was totally predictable that I’d have more than one Totally Predictable Event as well.

Totally Predictable Event #1: Mike White plays better than Zach Wilson

It’s a little bit of a piggyback on last week’s Totally Predictable Event of Zach Wilson Plays Terrible. Part of being predictable last week was that Zach Wilson ($8,787,670) was playing against the Patriots and Bill Belichick had been given an extra week to prepare. Wilson played well against the Patriots in the teams’ first meeting of the season, likely adding more incentive for the Patriots’ coach. The rest of it was that I thought Wilson was terrible pretty much since he was drafted by the Jets with the overall #2 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

On the other hand, Mike White ($2,540,000) has only played in five NFL games. He has scored more Dynasty Owner fantasy points in two of those five games than the highest scoring game of Wilson’s career (26.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). This week, White had 34.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (315 passing yards, 2 rushing yards, 3 TDs). White now has one more 3 TD game than Wilson (2 games for White versus 1 for Wilson) and only played in one-quarter of the games (5 games for White versus 20 games for Wilson).

I wasn’t surprised since White played well last year and Joe Flacco ($3,500,000) played better when he started the season as the Jets’ starter. Flacco even had a 4 TD game in Week 2 against Cleveland. The Jets’ offense just seems to do better without Wilson. For some people, the fact that White played better than Wilson is a surprise, but it was pretty predictable to me.

Totally Predictable Event #2: Zach Wilson failed as Jets’ QB after being drafted #2

The New York Jets don’t draft QBs very well. Since drafting Joe Willie Namath in 1965, they have taken a QB in the first round a total of six times and none of them have been nearly as good as Namath and led the Jets to even a Super Bowl appearance. Richard Todd was taken with the #6 pick in 1976 to replace Namath and threw more interceptions (161) than passing touchdowns (124) in his career. In 1983, it was Ken O’Brien who they drafted 24th, three spots ahead of Dan Marino. Enough said there.

They waited until 2000 to try again and drafted Chad Pennington with the #18 pick. It was their third first round pick that year. He played eight seasons for the Jets, but only started and played all 16 games twice, mostly due to injuries. He also fought a bit with the media and although he was Comeback Player of the Year in 2006, he was never a top QB. After Pennington was released in 2008 and the Jets tried Brett Favre at QB, they drafted Mark Sanchez with the #5 pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. Best known for the “Butt Fumble”, which celebrated its tenth anniversary just a couple of days ago, Sanchez did reach the AFC Championship game in his first two seasons with the Jets, but also only played four seasons in New York. After that, it was Sam Darnold ($18,858,000) with the third pick in 2018 who was forced out to make way for Zach Wilson.

In all honesty, Wilson never had a chance. Neither did Darnold to be honest, or Sanchez after the “Butt Fumble”. The New York media is brutal, the fans are tough, and some players just aren’t well equipped to handle it. Sanchez was probably the best equipped out of the last three, and started out strong, but he only lasted four seasons. Wilson was kind of a surprise pick at #2 and played at BYU. I don’t know a lot about the media in Provo, but I can say with certainty that they are unlikely to be as relentless and all-consuming as the New York media. Especially when you are a QB taken with the #2 overall draft pick. Add in the mom drama, his boyish looks and being the QB for a bad team last year and it wasn’t destined to end well.

That’s ok. Not everybody is Joe Willie Namath and can confidently predict a Super Bowl victory, then deliver, go to Studio 54 and party with celebrities, film pantyhose commercials, etc. However, I think the Jets need to think about those extra intangibles when evaluating QBs in the future. Drafting a young kid from BYU #2 overall and plopping him in New York City was only going to work if he was a once in a lifetime prospect with an amazing thick skin, brazen attitude and the ability to back up that attitude. I don’t think anybody thought Wilson or any of the QBs the Jets have drafted recently were that. Probably should have been a good enough reason for them to pass on them. That’s why it was totally predictable that Wilson would fail as the Jets’ QB.

Totally Predictable Event #3: Ezekiel Elliott plays a lot on Thanksgiving

After three consecutive games with either over 100 yards rushing or receiving for Tony Pollard ($796,945), of course Ezekiel Elliott ($15,000,000) played nearly as many snaps as Pollard (44 snaps for Pollard to 38 for Elliott) on Thanksgiving. Elliott also had nearly as many touches (20 for Pollard to 17 for Elliott) as well. Admittedly Elliott had more total yards (95 yards for Elliott vs. 61 for Pollard), the only TD by the pair and most importantly, more Dynasty Owner fantasy points (16.5 for Elliott vs. 8.1 for Pollard).

I’m not a huge conspiracy theorist, but I have to believe that Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones pretty much ordered coach Mike McCarthy to play Elliott more. At least McCarthy had to know that Jones wanted Elliott to play more on Thanksgiving and accommodated him by doing it. Either way, it was totally predictable even though most people would agree that Pollard should be playing much more than Elliott at this point.

Totally Predictable Event #4: Jay Pounds was right about Zay Jones

I could have said “Zay Jones would play well for Jacksonville this week”, but since my podcast co-host Jay Pounds touted Jones ($8,000,000) in his Free Agent Auction targets article two weeks ago, I wanted to give him the credit. So why does this qualify as nobody agreeing with me. Technically, I didn’t say it, but I did hedge my Starting WR recommendation this week by saying Jones would be the choice if I heard any negative news about Alec Pierce ($1,650,336). I didn’t so Pierce is still the recommendation, but I probably should have recommended Jones, since it would have been Good.

The real reason why it’s here is that his Dynasty Owner roster percentage barely increased after Jay’s article. When the article was published, Jones’ Dynasty Owner roster percentage was 64.26%. It now stands at 64.68%, so a whopping increase of 0.42%. Congrats to the few of you who took Jay’s recommendation as Jones had 27.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (11 receptions, 145 receiving yards, 1 2-pt. conversion). I’m not surprised that Jones played well and after watching the 2-pt. conversion play and seeing that it was pretty much designed for Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372) to throw to Jones, I’m more confident in Jones’ Dynasty Owner appeal for the rest of the season and the rest of his contract with Jacksonville.

Totally Predictable Event #5: Jaguars and Chargers go for two and the win

Both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Chargers tied their games this week very late in the fourth quarter and then went for the 2-pt. conversion and the win. The fact that it was those teams attempting the 2-pt. conversion to win was totally predictable.

Both teams go for it on fourth down more than average and Jacksonville is near the top in attempting 2-pt. conversions this season as well. The Chargers were tied for third in fourth down conversion attempts per game last season and tied for sixth this year under coach Brandon Staley. The Jaguars are fourth this season with new coach Doug Pedersen. Jacksonville is also third in 2-pt. conversion attempts this year and the Chargers were tied for first last season. It’s just what their coaches do.

It was totally predictable that both of them would go for two and the win. The Chargers were on the road and that’s the expectation, you try to win the game. The Jaguars were at home, but were 3-7 for the season and needed a victory. The fact that both of them got the conversion and the victory was not predictable.

Conclusion

Thanks for reading. Where you surprised that I had a bunch of small surprises and predictable events this week, or was it totally predictable? Also, did you think I’d have the same number of each or were you surprised there were more of one than the other? I’m not sure that there were more surprises and predictable events than usual, it’s just that my ability to watch almost all of them live as they happened made them seem more plentiful and impactful.

If there was a surprise or totally predictable event that you think I missed, let me know on Twitter (@SteveVT33). What’s totally predictable is that Dynasty Owner will have a lot of great content this week for everyone.

  • Mondays: The Monday Night Football preview article for the Steelers-Colts game from Jay Pounds is coming later today. You need to read it to see if his prediction is a surprise (Colts victory) or totally predictable (Steelers victory).
  • Tuesdays: I’ll recap the Dynasty Owner week with the winners of Player of the Week, Value Player of the Week and our Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week. I’ll also give you a player per position who surprised and played well. They should have been in your Starting lineup. I’ll also find one player per position who didn’t do well and should have been on your Bench. This could be surprising or totally predictable. Jay Pounds also has his weekly Free Agent Auction targets article to help you figure out what players to bid on before the first Free Agent Auction run of the week is processed on Wednesday at 5 AM (Eastern).
  • Wednesday: Matt Morrison – The Jerk will finish his Opportunity Is (Almost) Everything article series this Wednesday by looking at TEs. His weekly rankings also come out on Wednesdays.
  • Thursday: I’ll have my weekly article that previews the upcoming NFL games and presents a Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week. Matt Morrison – The Jerk will preview the Thursday Night Football game. Find out if he was able to predict the “Value of the Game” for the three Thanksgiving games correctly or if they were a surprise.
  • Friday: I’ll have my weekly preview article coming out with Starting lineup and Bench recommendations plus a look back at the previous week’s recommendations. Did I surprise everyone (including myself) by having four Good recommendations for your Starting lineup and Bench? Check it out and find the answer.

If you listen or watch, you know it’s no surprise that I enjoy doing the Dynasty Owner podcast. Listen to it wherever you get your podcasts or watch it on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel. We took last week off for Thanksgiving, but should be back to normal and recording on Thursday morning and releasing it on Friday morning.

Watch the Dynasty Owner Livestream as it happens as well on Wednesday at 12:30 PM (Eastern). We answer trade questions and talk about Dynasty Owner and fantasy football in general. You can also catch it afterwards if you can’t watch us live. Finally, don’t forget to follow Dynasty Owner on Twitter as well. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Week 12 Recommendations – Hedging My Bets

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Sports betting is legal (although with some limitations) in 39 states plus the District of Columbia, which is good news for a very good friend of mine who frequently stops at the Verizon Center sportsbook after work to place some $2 and $3 bets. I’ve been able to do it from my home in Virginia for some time. If you live across the river in Maryland as they say here, you can now wager from the comfort of your own home as online sports betting went live on Wednesday. Just in time for Thanksgiving Day football!

In honor of this occasion, I’ll be hedging some of my bets, aka recommendations, this week. There are also some sound reasons for this decision.

There are three Thanksgiving Day games involving six teams. The Buffalo-Detroit game is first up at 12:30 PM (Eastern) so don’t forget to set your lineups early. While this is great, it does leave Dynasty Owners in a situation where they may have to make decisions on players who are questionable a full three days before their game. I know this happens every week with Thursday Night Football, but the games start earlier in the day and are magnified on Thanksgiving. It makes your lineup decisions less flexible if you have a player in one of the Sunday games or Monday Night Football who is questionable.

However, on the positive side, we do have all 32 teams playing for the first time since Week 5. A full compliment of healthy players can offset some of the issues caused by the extra two Thursday games. To be honest, the QB changes for three teams already announced (looking at you Jets, Panthers and Texans) really does eliminate a few teams from producing many players who could be in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup.

For my recommendations, the combination of three Thanksgiving Day games plus making these recommendations earlier than usual could affect them as things might change based on an injury assumption from Wednesday versus Friday. The question for Dynasty Owners is really:

“Is it better to Start a player who is definitely playing on Thursday to get at least some points, or wait on a better player who is questionable and might end up not playing on Sunday”

For example, do you have WR32 Jakobi Meyers ($3,986,000) in your Starting lineup because he’s playing on Thursday, or do you wait and hope that WR12 Ja’Marr Chase ($7,704,910) plays on Sunday. Chase should get more Dynasty Owner fantasy points, if he plays, than Meyers, but Meyers is pretty much guaranteed to give you at least a few on Thursday night. To paraphrase Hamlet, “to hedge or not to hedge, that is the question.”

While I made all of my regular weekly recommendations and picked players for your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup and Bench, I did make a few additional recommendations or mentioned someone else to hedge some of my bets. This weekly recommendations article will contain a player at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) who you should have as a Starter in your Dynasty Owner lineup, but who isn’t an obvious choice and might usually be on your Bench or Practice Squad or even available in the Free Agent Auction. After that, I’ll name one player per position who is playing well and is normally in your Starting lineup, but who should be on your Bench or Practice Squad.

For the purposes of this article, all statistics, ADP and Dynasty Owner roster percentages were current as of the morning of Thursday, November 24th.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

First, we’ll check on how my Week 11 recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok). I predicted that the following four players would have Dynasty Owner Starting lineup worthy performances in Week 11.

QB: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF – $7,000,000) – 35.7 (Good recommendation)

RB: Brian Robinson (WAS – $1,261,227) – 5.7 (Bad recommendation)

WR: Ben Skowronek (LAR – $891,131) – 1.4 (Bad recommendation)

TE: Kylen Granson (IND – $1,046,592) – 2.6 (Bad recommendation)

At least I had one Good recommendation, but unfortunately offset it with three Bad ones. It didn’t cause much of a change in my overall recommendations record and that stands at 32% Good, 55% Bad and 11% Just Ok. The streak of having one or more Good recommendations has been extended to eight weeks in a row.

Jimmy Garoppolo had the sixth highest point total of Week 11 with 35.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. That was my fifth Good QB recommendation, just one behind the six Good RB recommendations. The rest of the recommendations were Bad and pretty much not even close. Both Ben Skowronek and Kylen Granson only managed one catch each. The Commanders had 153 rushing yards against the Texans and 129 by RBs. The problem was that Brian Robinson only had 57 of those rushing yards on 15 carries and no receptions or TDs. His 5.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points wasn’t even enough to be a Just Ok recommendation. 

While I’m thankful for having at least one Good recommendation, I want more and need more every week if I’m going to have as many Good as Bad recommendations for the season. Here are the players who I think are worth having in your Week 12 Dynasty Owner Starting lineup, plus a pair of hedges in case of injuries or changes in player status over the next few days.

Marcus Mariota (ATL – $9,375,000): I could go with one of the four new Starting QBs this week, but don’t have a lot of confidence in Sam Darnold ($18,858,000) from Panthers, Mike White ($2,540,000) from the Jets, Kyle Allen ($2,500,000) from the Texans, or even John Wolford ($895,000) from the Rams now that Matthew Stafford ($27,000,000) has been ruled out. Instead, I’m taking a guy who plenty of people thought wouldn’t be starting by now.

Third time’s a charm as they say and hopefully they are right because this is the third time I’ve picked Mariota and gotten a Just Ok and Bad recommendation, but not a Good one. Mariota has a good rushing floor, rushing for 25 or more yards in seven out of 11 games and double digits in 9 out of 11 games. The Commanders aren’t allowing QBs to run for a lot with just 171 rushing yards and 2 TDs by QBs in 11 games. However, they haven’t been particularly great at preventing QBs who can use their legs to score Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Mariota is sixth among QBs with 372 rushing yards. The Commanders have played two of the QBs above him a total of three times (Justin Fields once and Jalen Hurts twice). They will eventually play against Daniel Jones twice as well. In the three games against the type of QBs that Mariota is, they have given up 84.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, or 28.3 points per game. That’s plenty to make him a top 12 QB and a Starter for your Dynasty Owner team.

Rachaad White (TB – $1,282,500): I could hedge and say that I’m only taking White if Leonard Fournette ($7,000,000) doesn’t play, but I don’t think that’s necessary. White has steadily been receiving more work for the Buccaneers over the course of the season cumulating with 48 snaps and 22 touches in Week 10 against Seattle. Fournette did sit out all of the fourth quarter, but White only had one fewer touch than Fournette through the first three quarters (15 for Fournette vs. 14 for White).  After not playing much in the first three games of the season, White has scored 62.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points over the last seven games, an average of 8.9 points per game. While that’s not enough to be in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup, he did have the first 100 yard rushing game of his career in Week 10.

Guess what? The Buccaneers get to play the Browns this week and Cleveland has allowed 1,200 yards rushing to RBs this season so far (120 yards per game). A second consecutive 100 yard rushing game for White is not out of the question after the Browns allowed 171 yards rushing last week to Buffalo. I’m doing my best at recommending Starting lineup RBs and believe White will help me improve that and should be in your Starting lineup this week.

Alec Pierce (IND – $1,650,336): The worst part about working mostly on these recommendations on Wednesday is that it’s five days until Monday Night Football and so much could happen in that time to change my mind. Even with that hedging, I’m sticking with Alec Pierce to play well enough to be in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup this week.

His production hasn’t gone back to what it was in Weeks 3-6 with Matt Ryan ($30,000,000) at QB for the Colts, but he was targeted 8 times last week. In Weeks 3-6, Pierce was targeted 27 times by Ryan and accumulated 53.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (18 receptions, 271 receiving yards, 1 TD and 1 fumble). The TD was a 32-yard TD with 17 seconds left against Jacksonville, a clutch scoring event because it put the Colts ahead. That’s his only TD, but this week is as good as a time as any for the second one with the Pittsburgh defense having allowed 14 TDs to WRs so far. Pierce is surprisingly WR57 for the season, probably because he only has that one TD, so he easily qualifies as someone to get into your Starting lineup here.

The hedge if there’s news from Indianapolis before Sunday that makes me want to change my mind is Zay Jones ($8,000,000). He’s been one of Jay’s Free Agent Auction targets a few times this season and for good reason. His roster percentage is just under two-thirds (64.68%) and Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372) throws him the ball a lot. He’s tied with Drake London ($5,383,617) for 33rd in WR targets with 65 on the season. Don’t forget that Jones missed two games this season. While I know from reading the Opportunity Is (Almost) Everything series that opportunities aren’t everything, I do like the fact that Jones gets targeted a lot and can see that paying off in Week 12 and Jones being worth having in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup.

Dawson Knox (BUF – $880,400): It’s a little bit surprising that Knox is TE18 for the season. I thought that he had missed multiple games, but he only didn’t play in Week 5 against Pittsburgh. It’s true that he’s only 8.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points behind TE12 Hayden Hurst ($3,500,000), but he’s only 7.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points ahead of TE21 Will Dissly ($8,000,000). There are so many TEs in the TE6 to TE21 range who could be in your Starting lineup that it’s very difficult to figure out who will fill out the top 12 in a given week. Fortunately for Knox, he has been playing well recently despite Josh Allen ($43,005,667) not being at his best. Allen has his four worst scoring games in the last four weeks, but he’s still QB2. The Bills get to play Detroit on Thanksgiving with the Lions allowing 28.2 points and 262.2 passing yards per game. Allen should have a huge game on a huge stage. Knox was his leading receiver with 7 receptions and 70 receiving yards (14.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) last week against the Browns, a game that was played in Detroit. Knox is averaging 9.55 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game since Buffalo’s bye week. All of that gives me confidence that Knox will perform well enough to be in your Starting lineup.

My hedge at TE would be Tre’ McKitty ($1,196,463) since the Chargers are playing Arizona and TEs have been scoring Dynasty Owner fantasy points and TDs against the Cardinals this season. However, he’s TE73 with only 10.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. If Gerald Everett ($6,000,000) does play, Everett will be worth a spot in your Dynasty Owner starting lineup, but he’s just a little too close (TE14) to the top 12 so he shouldn’t be allowed here. McKitty might do well enough if Everett doesn’t play, but Sunday is too far away for me to trust that happens, so I’ll go with Knox.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Now it’s time to look at how my Week 11 Bench recommendations worked out (Good, Bad or Just Ok). So far, I’ve been better at making Bench recommendations than Starting lineup recommendations and hopefully that continued in Week 11.

QB: Jalen Hurts (PHI – $1,506,292) – 29.1 (Bad recommendation)

RB: Kareem Hunt (CLE – $6,000,000) – 7.4 (Good recommendation)

WR: Amari Cooper (CLE – $20,000,000) – 31.3 (Bad recommendation)

TE: Juwan Johnson (NO – $895,000) – 13.7 (Bad recommendation)

They were not as I had an identical record to my Starting lineup recommendations with one Good along with three Bad recommendations. By having one Good recommendation, I have still gotten one or more in all 11 weeks this season. By position, it’s a tie between QB, WR and TE as I’ve had five Good recommendations at each of those positions.

However, it was at RB that I made this week’s only Good recommendation. Both Nick Chubb ($12,200,000) and my recommended Bench selection Kareem Hunt didn’t play well against Buffalo as the QB-WR stack of Jacoby Brissett ($4,650,000) and Amari Cooper led the Browns’ offense. Hunt had fewer opportunities than Chubb and only 7.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (32 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 22 rushing yards). The rest of the recommendations were Bad including the Bench recommendation of Cooper who had 31.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and was in the top 10 for the entire week. Jalen Hurts wasn’t far behind with 29.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and Juwan Johnson had double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points, so obviously he was in the top 12 TEs.

Things need to turn around. My overall Bench record is still better than my Starting lineup recommendations, but it’s getting closer with a record of 41% Good, 50% Bad and 9% Just Ok. A perfect Week 12 of four Good recommendations will even my record, so that’s what I’m trying to do with these players.

Aaron Rodgers (GB – $33,500,000): The fact that Rodgers is QB10 is a bit of a mirage. The Packers have played 11 games versus the 10 games that most of the other teams in the NFL have played at this point. Sometimes the bye weeks play havoc with statistical evaluations because of how they are staggered. Justin Fields ($4,717,989) is the only other top 10 QB who has played 11 games and he has scored 39.0 more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than Rodgers. That’s more points than Rodgers has scored in a single game all season so far.

Rodgers has scored 213.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points this season. In 11 games, that averages out to 19.38 points per game. In 10 games, he’d have 193.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and be QB19 for the season, just behind Jimmy Garoppolo (who has only played 9 games). An average game by Rodgers leaves him vulnerable to not being a top 12 QB, especially with all 32 teams playing. Admittedly, we have several new starting QBs, but one of them could have a great game and be Player of the Week. Last year, it happened with new Jets starting QB Mike White who won the award in Week 8 last year with 38.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

I haven’t even mentioned that he’s been playing with a broken right thumb, which he finally admitted to in typical Rodgers fashion after carefully evading the question for weeks (see COVID “immunization” status from 2021 for a similar situation). I’m not going to bash anymore, but I also wouldn’t put him in my Dynasty Owner Starting lineup after how he’s played this season before that new information. No hedging here, Rodgers is a Bench QB if you roster him in Dynasty Owner (80% rostered). 

Nick Chubb (CLE – $12,200,000): Since the Browns’ Week 9 bye, Nick Chubb has slipped a little bit. He only scored 23.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in two games (14.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 10 versus Miami and 9.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 11 versus Buffalo). The Browns face Tampa Bay this week and while the Buccaneers’ run defense hasn’t been as good as in the past, they are still a slight bit better than average (ranked 15th in fewest rushing yards allowed per game) and playing better in the two games prior to their Week 11 bye.

In Week 10, the Buccaneers held Kenneth Walker ($2,110,395) to only 17 rushing yards on 10 carries and in Week 9, the Rams only gained 68 yards on the ground on 24 attempts. While Chubb has been more involved in the passing game in the past two weeks with 3 receptions in each game, he still gets 85% of his Dynasty Owner fantasy points running the ball (167.3 out of 196.9 points). If Tampa Bay can stop him from running effectively, he’ll either need a TD (and Tampa has only allowed 3 TDs to RBs all season), an incredibly high workload, or a lot of work in the passing game. I’m going to bet against those things happening and recommend that you keep Chubb on your Dynasty Owner Bench this week.

My hedge choice is Joe Mixon ($12,000,000). If Mixon plays after suffering a concussion in Week 11, he’s still got to face the Tennessee defense that allows only 65.2 yards rushing to RBs per game. He’s questionable and didn’t practice on Wednesday, so he might sit out and I don’t want to take a “not applicable” for this recommendation by choosing him. However, I did want to mention that the RB7 for the season might not be a good Starting lineup selection.

D.J. Moore (CAR – $20,628,000): I hope this recommendation doesn’t ruin Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer’s Thanksgiving with the Moore family. Tim’s well known in Dynasty Owner circles as being as big of a D.J. Moore fan as D.J.’s mom, so I assume that he’s invited to Thanksgiving.

In all seriousness, Moore is WR27 for the season really on the back of that 30.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy point effort in Week 8 game against Atlanta when he caught the 62-yard Hail Mary TD pass from QB Phillip Walker ($895,000) to tie the game. We won’t mention what happened next. Since then, he’s had a total of 16.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (9 receptions for 77 receiving yards) in three games with Walker and Baker Mayfield ($18,858,000) as his QBs.

Walker’s out and so is Mayfield as Carolina is rolling with Sam Darnold ($18,858,000) at QB in his first action of the 2022 season. I can’t stay far enough away from Darnold and that includes all of the players who need him to play well, such as D.J. Moore. I’m thankful that I don’t have any shares of Moore, so I don’t have to find a replacement this week for him. If you do, you need to find one and get Moore on your Bench.

Cole Kmet (CHI – $1,894,444): I should probably hedge this one and not include Kmet if Justin Fields plays, but I’m not going to do that. Kmet (and Fields, too) had been on a roll prior to Week 11 with two straight games with two TDs and more than 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He only scored 6.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (3 receptions for 35 receiving yards) last week against Atlanta with no TDs. Kmet is unlikely to get even one TD versus the New York Jets this week, regardless of whether it’s Fields or Trevor Siemian ($2,000,000) under center for the Bears. That’s because not a single TE has scored a TD against Gang Green this season. They have played three other top 12 TEs so far this season in Mark Andrews ($14,000,000), Pat Freiermuth ($1,507,045) and Hayden Hurst ($3,500,000) so the Jets have stopped some quality TEs from reaching the end zone. Kmet will be another one and without a TD, he likely won’t reach double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He hasn’t done it so far this year after doing it three times in 2021. Leave Kmet on your Dynasty Owner Bench.

Conclusion

If you made it to the end of this article, let me wish you and your family a Happy Thanksgiving. I can say that regardless of if you read it before, during or after having some turkey or even if you didn’t eat any turkey. The sentiment remains even if you didn’t get to read this until Friday, Saturday or Sunday morning. I appreciate your readership and being a fellow Dynasty Owner.

While I hedged a few recommendations this week because of Thanksgiving, I am happy that I had a full 16-game slate to choose from this week. That won’t happen again this season as there’s a Thursday Night Football game every week through the end of the Dynasty Owner season (Week 17 of the NFL regular season). I can’t believe that we are close enough to be thinking about the end of the Dynasty Owner season already.

What’s not ending is all of the great content you get from Dynasty Owner. In season, we have articles from me, Jay Pounds and Matt Morrison – The Jerk that will help you figure out the best players for your Dynasty Owner team for the rest of the season. They also write off-season content along with me and Nate Christian who is also doing an article every other week during the season to help you figure out which rookies will be most helpful to your Dynasty Owner team in the future. Thank you to the three of them for being such a great writing team and to Jay for being a great co-host on the Dynasty Owner podcast as well.

I’m thankful to be able to join Tim every week for the Dynasty Owner Livestream, enjoy doing them at lunchtime on Wednesdays and answering your trade questions and talking about Dynasty Owner and fantasy football in general. You can also catch it on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel if you can’t watch and interact with us live. Finally, don’t forget to follow Dynasty Owner on Twitter as well.

Thanks for reading and have a Happy Thanksgiving!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Thanksgiving Day Football: Week 12

Bills @ Lions

Giants @ Cowboys

Patriots @ Vikings

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Here it is. Thanksgiving Football. Possibly the best regular season day of football. I have three games to get through, so they will all be a little more abbreviated than usual. I’m going to jump right into it.

Value of the Game Recap

Last week I picked Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($895,000) to be my Value Of The Game with the following stat line.

Week 11 ProjectionSalaryReceptionsTotal YardsTDsDOFP
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine$895,000241112.1

I missed yet another pick on this one. Westbrook-Ikhine only mustered two receptions for 28 yards. Instead, the award this week went to the rookie breakout wide receiver Christian Watson ($2,310,258). Watson had four receptions for 48 yards plus 3 rushing yards and two touchdowns (21.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points)

Week 11 ActualSalaryReceptionsTotal YardsTDsDOFPDD/PT
Christian Watson$2,310,258451121.1$109.491
Dontrell Hilliard$1,187,50011818.8$134,943
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine$895,00022804.8$186,458

His stat line combined with a salary of $2,310,258 makes Christian Watson the Week 11 Value of the Game with the lowest Dynasty Dollars per Fantasy Point (DD/PT) total.

Overall Record: 4-7

Bills @ Lions – What To Watch For

I’m watching for an offensive explosion in this game. I’ll get to it in a bit, but there are handfuls of Starting lineup and Bench Dynasty Owner players in this game. The Over/Under is a savory 54 points. Yes, Buffalo is a 9.5 point favorite, but I expect this game to be kept closer than that. I want just about every rosterable player in this game.

Starters

Josh Allen ($43,005,667)

Josh Allen is the QB2 on the season playing against the worst statistical defense against quarterbacks. There’s a good chance Allen is the QB1 for Week 12.

Devin Singletary ($974,500)

Jamaal Williams ($3,000,000)

D’Andre Swift ($2,134,728)

All three of these running backs should be started. I have the most concerns about Swift due to his lack of volume, but he is still an electric player who doesn’t need more than 10 touches to be in your Starting lineup.

Stefon Diggs ($14,400,000)

He’s the WR1 on the season.

Gabe Davis ($998,595)

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($1,066,313)

Both are startable even though they play two completely different roles for their team. Davis is a big play, sometimes touchdown dependent wide receiver. St. Brown is a possession receiver who is far and away Jared Goff’s ($33,500,000) favorite target.

Dawson Know ($880,400)

Knox is always a risky start, but with his last game (14.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) and the overall wasteland at tight end, I have no problem playing him.

Bench

Here at Dynasty Owner, you not only get points from your Starting lineup, but also from your Bench. Your Dynasty Owner teams get 25 percent of the points scored from players on your Bench added to the total final score. This means that Bench scoring could (and often does) affect the outcome of individual matches as well as championships. Here are the players I would be okay putting on my Bench.

Jared Goff ($33,500,000)

Isaiah McKenzie ($2,200,000)

Goff and McKenzie are two low option Bench plays.

Value of the Game

Week 12 ProjectionSalaryReceptionsTotal YardsTDsDOFP
Devin Singletary$974,5003101119.1

I had many options for Value of the Game (VOTG) here. I considered Gabe Davis, Amon-Ra St. Brown and even Dawson Knox. In the end, I think the Bills will be able to run all over the Lions and Singletary will be the beneficiary.

Giants @ Cowboys – What To Watch For

Here we have an interdivisional game that could have playoff and division winner implications. I want to see how the Cowboys respond after a massive victory and how the Giants respond after a tough loss.

Starters

Dak Prescott ($40,000,000)

Dak has put up an average of 25.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game since his return from injury. He is a great start no matter what the matchup.

Saquon Barkley ($7,217,000)

Ezekiel Elliott ($15,000,000)

Tony Pollard ($796,945)

Saquon is always in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup even against a solid Dallas defense. Pollard is electric, and I will speak more about him in a few minutes. I have worries about Zeke, but he continues to be involved in the running game especially on the goal line.

CeeDee Lamb ($3,502,503)

Dalton Schultz ($10,931,000)

Both Lamb and Schultz are fine starts this week. I would have reservations about playing both of them in the same league, but they should each get north of 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

Bench

Daniel Jones ($6,416,014)

Darius Slayton ($688,497)

I’m really not excited about either of these Bench options, especially since they are facing the Cowboys, but there is a little meat on the bone for both.

Value of the Game

Week 12 ProjectionSalaryReceptionsTotal YardsTDsDOFP
Tony Pollard$796,945262114.2

While I could still be wrong here, this seems like an obvious choice. Pollard is making less than $800,000 per year and he is RB9 on the season. Truly amazing value, and that value should continue into Thursday afternoon.

Patriots @ Vikings – What To Watch For

Minnesota is a 2.5 point home favorite in this game. I expect a rather low scoring affair with quite a bit of ground game. I want to see if both teams’ top running backs can each get over 15.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

Starters

Kirk Cousins ($33,000,000)

Rhamondre Stevenson ($1,057,264)

Stevenson has been making a killing through the passing game with at least six receptions in three of his last four games.  He is currently RB10 on the season.

Dalvin Cook ($12,600,000)

Cook is still a must start every week.

Jakobi Meyers ($3,986,000)

Justin Jefferson ($3,280,701)

T.J. Hockenson ($4,955,306)

Bench

Mac Jones ($3,896,588)

I don’t really see a scenario where Jones should be started in any Dynasty Owner league, but he is a fine Bench player who can get you around 15.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

Damien Harris ($907,784)

Adam Thielen ($16,050,000)

Hunter Henry ($12,500,000)

Value of the Game

Week 12 ProjectionSalaryReceptionsTotal YardsTDsDOFP
Rhamondre Stevenson$1,057,264597120.7

Stevenson is my Value of the Game (VOTG) pick for the third Thanksgiving Day game. Once again, I see him doing most of his damage through the air and getting a receiving touchdown. A 20.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance combined with a salary that is barely over $1 million makes Rhamondre the VOTG.

Wow, that was a long one. I hope everyone enjoys their Thanksgiving and these games. Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

Week 12 Preview – Second Chances

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

It’s time for Dynasty Owner second chances. This is the point of the Dynasty Owner season when you’ve played everybody in your league. There are still three Dynasty Owner regular season games left, so everyone gets to play three teams twice. These are randomly assigned at the beginning of the league year or after your league draft. You might get lucky and play a couple of struggling teams, or get unlucky and face some top contenders. No complaints. It’s the way it is and not changing this season, so you need to go out and win some games if your team needs wins to stay in playoff contention, or clinch a playoff berth.

A lot can change over the course of a season, or in 11 games. All Madden Team was at the top of the Chase for the Ring standings after the first week, and they are now in 21st place. Not bad, but not first place. Some of the teams in the first top 10 are still there, like Clara Strong 💪 in League #28280  Dynasty|Trade|School (D|T|S),  and The Road Warriors. Others are gone from the top 25 but still lurking, like Hingle McCringleberry (now in 30th place) and RAVENS1 (now in 34th place). Others appear to have dropped out of the top 100 like Dynasty Degenerate who does have a team now in 87th place) or Best in the World who started off in third place after one week. Unless they changed their team name. If so, apologies and let me know where you stand now.

All of the teams who lost their game back in Week 1 have a chance at revenge for that defeat. It’s a second chance to beat that team who made your season start off 0-1. Even if you’re out of playoff contention, it’s nice to avenge that defeat. You might even hurt your opponent’s playoff chances or chance for a first round bye. And if you’re trying to make the playoffs or get that first round bye, a victory will be that much sweeter if you topple the team that beat you in Week 1.

Not everybody is in that spot though. A few select teams won in Week 1 and haven’t stopped since. They are currently 11-0 and have defeated every team in their league once. For those teams who will be listed later, it’s a second chance to show your dominance over three of the teams in your league before the playoffs start. It could be important in terms of determining the final standings, playoff positioning, or even which teams you have to face to stay undefeated, win your league and maybe make a run at winning the Chase for the Ring.

If you aren’t one of the few undefeated teams, chances are good that you’ll get a second chance to beat a team who beat you earlier in the season over the next three weeks. If your teams are on the outside of the playoffs and trying to get in, like several of mine, then the second chance at a much-needed victory is even more important. Your team also may be trying to beat a team for the second time to stay in the hunt for the playoffs or even a first round bye. If that’s the case, as it is for one of the teams in our Match-up of the Week, then you’ll need to set your best lineup to prevent your opponent from taking advantage of their second chance of beating your team.

For the purposes of this article, all statistics, ADP and Dynasty Owner roster percentages were current as of the afternoon of Wednesday, November 23rd.

Undefeated Teams After 11 Weeks

It’s time to finally look at the remaining undefeated Dynasty Owner teams after 11 weeks. All of these teams are currently in the top 100 of the Chase for the Ring standings. Apologies in advance if you have a Dynasty Owner team outside of the top 100 but still undefeated and not listed. If your undefeated team is missing, let me know on Twitter (@SteveVT33) or send a message to Dynasty Owner in some way. I’ll be sure to add you to next week’s update.

Just like last year, I’ll list all of the weekly undefeated teams in the preview article and then show if they won or lost in the weekly recap article. Right now, we have 11 undefeated teams with five in the top 10 of the Chase for the Ring and one just inside the top 100 at 97th place.

Team NameLeagueChase Position
Blaze’s Backyard Burners282871st
juan blanco553183rd
The Oracle 🙌710144th
Stayner346545th
Thee Camel Toe Jockey666458th
The Tough Guys3162514th
Rotting Husk of Al Davis2744427th
HawkNation2746537th
TPC Murder Hornets2746643rd
All Outta Bubble Gum15685479th
Big Grizz6664497th

That’s the list! Congrats to all 11 Dynasty Owners who made it. It’s so difficult to be undefeated that no single Dynasty Owner has more than one undefeated team. Several teams who have multiple teams in the top 100 of the Chase for the Ring and teams in the top 10, such as Clara Strong 💪 or Dynasty|Trade|School (D|T|S), don’t have any undefeated teams listed above.

Good luck to all of the undefeated teams. Check back next week when I’ll show how all of them did in the Tuesday weekly recap article. A new list of undefeated teams will appear in this weekly preview article until the end of the season or until we have no more undefeated teams.

Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week

The Oracle 🙌 vs. Space Cowboys – League # 111014

Thanks to The Oracle 🙌 himself for suggesting this match-up via Twitter (@joshuaj11029). Surprisingly, he didn’t suggest that I look at his match-up in League # 71014 in which his team is undefeated and ranked fourth in the Chase for the Ring. Instead, he suggested this league in which the match-up is expected to be close and his team has been “unlucky”.

After taking a look at his team, the standings and his schedule, I’d have to agree. His team has a 5-6 record, but they have scored the second most points in the league. They scored 1,547.3 points so far and rank 296th in the Chase for the Ring standings. The third highest scoring team in the league is 152.7 points behind. The points against column shows that no other team has gotten more points scored by their opponents than The Oracle 🙌 with the closest team having 70.5 fewer points scored against them. Knowing all of that, it’s not surprising that they have lost games by the following scores: 165.7 to 143.2; 145.8 to 134.9; 139.9 to 136.3; and 153.9 to 132.3.

One of the few times that The Oracle 🙌 wasn’t unlucky was Week 1 when they defeated Space Cowboys by a score of 177.5 to 164.3. It was the most points that The Oracle 🙌 has scored in this league, but not so for Space Cowboys who have topped 200.0 points twice, are 8-3 in the league and the top scoring team. They are in 74th place in the Chase for the Ring and an extremely good team that is likely looking forward to their second chance at a victory over The Oracle 🙌.

The match-up is expected to be very close with Space Cowboys favored by exactly 1.3 points. It’s tough to get much closer than that! With their playoff hopes possibly in the balance for The Oracle 🙌 and Space Cowboys trying to move up from third place and secure a first round playoff bye, both teams are obviously going to put together their best lineups.

Space Cowboys should be in the lead after Thanksgiving with Stefon Diggs ($14,400,000), Saquon Barkley ($7,217,000) and Tyler Bass ($869,804) against just Rhamondre Stevenson ($1,057,264) for The Oracle 🙌. The stack of Patrick Mahomes ($45,000,000) and Travis Kelce ($14,312,500) should give The Oracle 🙌 the opportunity to come back some on Sunday. The Oracle 🙌 will be fine as long as they aren’t too far behind on Monday night when they have two players in their current Starting lineup from Indianapolis, Johnathan Taylor ($1,957,287) and Michael Pittman ($2,153,212) playing, and also Pittsburgh RB Najee Harris ($3,261,862) on their Bench. It’ll be difficult for Space Cowboys to rest easy even if they have a big lead with those three players in action on Monday Night Football.

Check back on Tuesday in the weekly recap article to see who won the Match-up of the Week and if Space Cowboys took advantage of their second chance against The Oracle 🙌 or not. There may be more second chances in Weeks 13 and 14 for Dynasty Owner teams to get revenge for an early season loss. We might have some first place or playoff matchups as well. If your team is one of these situations and you want to be next week’s Match-up of the Week, let me know on Twitter (@SteveVT33).

In the spirit of Thanksgiving, I do want to say “Thank you” to everyone who sent me a matchup suggestion this week after my tweet or during the course of the season. I was hoping to do more than one Match-up of the Week, but ran out of time with Thanksgiving on the horizon. The match-up sent by The Oracle 🙌 fit the theme best this week and better than the matchups that I had found on my own, so I went with it. Shout-outs to Chris (aka The Human Fund), Rudy (aka Dynasty|Trade|School (D|T|S), and Adam (aka the undefeated TPC Murder Hornets) for offering up your Match-up of the Week suggestions. All of them are great Dynasty Owners and deserve a follow on Twitter if you aren’t already doing so.

Conclusion

This was just your Dynasty Owner team’s first time at a second chance victory. After this week, you still have Week 13 and Week 14 remaining to get those revenge victories, or just a second win over one of the other team’s in your league. If you’re one of our 11 undefeated Dynasty Owner teams, you only need three more wins to cap an undefeated regular season.

Next week, it’s back to bye weeks. Eight more NFL teams, two in Week 13 and six more in Week 14, still haven’t rested for a week. I won’t list the teams as I’m still basking in the fact that it was nice to have a full roster of healthy players to choose from for my Dynasty Owner Starting lineups and Benches this week. Wasn’t it great? That won’t happen again until the first round of the playoffs (and Loser’s Bracket tournament) in Week 15.

What’s definitely going to happen next week is a return to our usual content schedule.

  • Mondays: The stand-alone weekly Surprise and Totally Predictable Event article will start off the week on Monday morning. Jay Pounds will also preview the Monday Night Football matchup from the Dynasty Owner perspective.
  • Tuesdays: The Dynasty Owner recap article highlighting the players who should have been in your weekly Starting lineup and those who should have been on the Bench appears on Tuesday. Jay Pounds puts together his weekly Free Agent Auction targets article for Tuesday as well. This article will help you figure out what players to bid on before the first Free Agent Auction run of the week is processed on Wednesday at 5 AM (Eastern).
  • Wednesday: Matt Morrison – The Jerk has the final installment in his Opportunity is (Almost) Everything series with a look at the TEs with the most opportunities. His weekly rankings are also coming out on Wednesdays.
  • Thursday: Next Thursday, it’s back to having Matt Morrison – The Jerk preview just one Thursday Night Football game and telling Dynasty Owners which players from the game should be in their Starting lineup and on their Bench. He’ll also have a Value of the Game selection.
  • Friday: My weekly Starting lineup and Bench recommendations article will be published next Friday. It’s coming up on Thursday this week due to Thanksgiving. That article also has a look back at the previous week’s recommendations.

Please read all of our articles and tune into our other content as well. The Dynasty Owner podcast with myself and Jay took a hiatus this week, but we’re hoping to do two of them next week to make up for it.

The Dynasty Owner Livestream will be back on Wednesday at 12:30 PM (Eastern) next week as well. Dynasty Owner CEO Tim and I will answer trade and other questions and talk about Dynasty Owner and fantasy football in general. If you can’t watch it live, then catch it on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel later on. Finally, don’t forget follow Dynasty Owner on Twitter as well.

Thanks for reading and have a Happy Thanksgiving!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Opportunity Is (Almost) Everything: Part III

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello Dynasty Owners. I will be continuing my Opportunity Is (Almost) Everything article series.  After today, I will be through quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers. I will wrap up the series next week when I talk about tight ends. As for today, we have a lot to talk about so I’m going to jump right into it.

“A few years ago, I came across a few underutilized metrics that, I think, can help bridge the gap between opportunity and fantasy production. So often we compare Player x to Player y without having the full context of their seasons. I am guilty of comparing players that I know haven’t had the same opportunity. These metrics are also a great way to see which players are on the field, but aren’t receiving the opportunity you would expect.

So often we talk about how much a player’s opportunity means to fantasy production (especially for running backs). Well over the next month, I’m going to show you that while it is very important, opportunity isn’t quite everything.”

Today we will be talking about wide receivers. This article will be limited to players in the Top 20 at each position. I’m going to be presenting some of the leaders in each of these categories…

  • Total Opportunities
  • Opportunities per Snap (Opp/Snap)
  • Dynasty Owner Fantasy Points (DOFP) per Opportunity (DOFP/Opp)

Total Opportunities

An opportunity for a wide receiver is defined as targets plus rushing attempts. Obviously, wide receivers (typically) don’t rush that often in a season, but they still need to be included as meaningful opportunities.

PlayerTeamSalaryOpportunitiesDOFPs
Davante AdamsLV$28,000,000115218.4
Tyreek HillMIA$18,000,000111221.2
Cooper KuppLAR$15,750,000107199.4
Justin JeffersonMIN$3,280,701107215.7
Stefon DiggsBUF$14,400,000104226.3

It’s interesting, but not unexpected, that all five wide receivers who lead the NFL in opportunities are also all in the Top 5 for Dynasty Owner fantasy points. When it comes to wide receivers, opportunity and receptions are essential. Adams and Hill lead this category with Kupp, Jefferson and Diggs close behind.

Any player who finishes in the Top 5 for opportunities will likely have a good chance of ending the season as a top Dynasty Owner player. That being said, opportunity is not everything.

Opportunities Per Snap

Next, we look at opportunities per snap. This is how often a player gets a chance at fantasy points when they are actually on the field. Players get taken off of the field for various reasons: injury, snap counts, change of pace player, etc..

All this is to say that Opportunities per Snap (Opp/Snap) look at how efficient a player is with their opportunities when they take a snap.

PlayerTeamSalaryOpportunitiesDOFPsSnapsOpp/Snap
Tyreek HillMIA$18,000,000111221.24920.23
Cooper KuppLAR$15,750,000107199.45300.20
Stefon DiggsBUF$14,400,000104226.35200.20
Chris OlaveNO$4,817,969831444230.20
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET$1,066,31382140.84280.19

Tyreek Hill is once again at the top of the list. In this case, he gets an opportunity for Dynasty Owner fantasy points on 23 percent of his snaps. This efficiency is more impressive when you look at how many snaps Hill actually takes. He had 111 opportunities on nearly 500 snaps (492).

Hill, Diggs and Kupp are all over 100 opportunities on the season while St. Brown and Olave are well under 100. This is where you start to see the true efficiency come out. Olave is getting an opportunity on one out of every five snaps (20 percent). St. Brown is getting an opportunity on 19 percent of his snaps. This Opp/Snap is also directly related to their target share percentage. All five of these players are top of the league in target share for their team. St. Brown is clearly the greatest value overall for this category when you take salary into account.

Fantasy Points Per Opportunity

Like the last two articles, this is where I tie the whole article together. Here we are looking at how many fantasy points a player gets for every opportunity.

PlayerTeamSalaryOpportunitiesDOFPsSnapsOpp/SnapDOFPs/Opp
Jaylen WaddleMIA$6,771,49877176.54900.162.29
Stefon DiggsBUF$14,400,000104226.35200.202.18
Justin JeffersonMIN$3,280,701107215.76490.162.02
A.J. BrownPHI$1,413,09280160.55660.142.01
Tyler LockettSEA$17,250,00071142.24980.142.00
Tyreek HillMIA$18,000,000111221.24920.231.99
Tee HigginsCIN$2,171,69671139.24490.161.96
Amari CooperCLE$20,000,00081158.85890.141.96
Davante AdamsLV$28,000,000115218.46070.191.90
Christian KirkJAC$18,000,00085160.76060.141.89

Leading this list is Jaylen Waddle.  Amazingly, he is getting 2.29 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per opportunity that he gets. This means that there are a pair of wide receivers on the same team on this list. Waddle and Hill both make the list for efficiency. This is a real testament to the Dolphins’ efficiency throughout the season as Tua Tagovailoa ($7,568,859) was ranked #1 for quarterback DOFPs/Opp. There’s no doubt that as a team the Dolphins will win the efficiency award at the end of the season.

Other notable names on this list are Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper and Christian Kirk. They are making this list with 85 or fewer opportunities.

It will be interesting to see where these players end up at the end of the year, but it’s worth stating that numbers have been down since this time last year. Here is a look at last year’s DOFPs/Opp after Week 11:

PlayerTeamSalaryOpportunitiesDOFPDOFP/Opp
DeAndre HopkinsARI$27,250,00049125.62.56
Mike EvansTB$16,500,00066155.62.36
DK MetcalfSEA$1,146,51364149.62.34
Ja’Marr ChaseCIN$7,547,41077172.22.24
Cooper KuppLAR$15,750,000117259.32.22

Thank you for reading. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Week 11 Recap: Stacking Works

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

The fantasy football practice of stacking, that is having a QB and receiver from the same team, has been a favorite of fantasy players probably since fantasy football started. I spent some time trying to figure out who my first stack was, but the online records in my home league aren’t so great. I do remember losing a playoff game in 2000 to my friend Bob who had a stack of St. Louis Rams QB Kurt Warner and WR Torry Holt. I had Rams WR Issac Bruce and Warner threw a 72-yard TD to Holt in the fourth quarter of the Rams-Buccaneers game in Week 15. I don’t remember all of the details and had to find the box score of the game to remember which WR I had and which one Bob had, but I vividly remember losing the playoff game because Warner threw the TD pass to his WR and not mine. Having the QB-WR worked for Bob 22 years ago and it still works today.

That’s not the first recorded history of a QB-WR (or the less common QB-TE) stack, but it was a pretty long time ago. Back in the 2021 Dynasty Owner off-season, I did a series of articles about stacking players, which first looked at the top QB-TE stacks then the top QB-WR stacks. Both articles looked at the best ones in terms of Dynasty Owner fantasy points scored as well as the best stack values. That’s the QB-WR or QB-TE stack who had the lowest Dynasty Dollars per Fantasy Point (DD/PT) amount for the season. Our 2020 Chase for the Ring Champion Viktor had a triple stack of Patrick Mahomes ($45,000,000), Tyreek Hill ($18,000,000) and Travis Kelce ($14,312,500). Not at those salaries though and because of inevitable salary increases, Viktor wasn’t able to keep that stack for the 2021 season. Just like in the NFL where teams have to trade away Hill or Davante Adams ($28,000,000) to stay within the NFL salary cap.

The stacking article series finished up by asking whether it was better to stack or not to stack with an analysis of all 2020 Dynasty Owner League winners and the top teams in the 2020 Chase for the Ring. I looked at whether or not they had a stack in the lineup during the playoffs using a pretty generous definition and including them as stacking if they had a QB-RB combination on the same team, in addition to the traditional QB-WR and QB-TE stacks, if they only utilized a stack in one of the final two playoff weeks, and if they had a stack using a Starter and a Bench player.

With that generous definition, what I found was that over half of the league winners did stack with slightly higher percentages as we went down to the top 25 and top 10 in the final Chase for the Ring standings. I wasn’t able to determine stacking for a small percentage of teams due to ownership changes, but that would have just increased the percentage who utilized a stack.

It appears that the 2020 Dynasty Owner playoffs were a good time for stacking and Week 11 was the same. We had seven pairs of players on the same team among the top weekly Dynasty Owner fantasy point scorers in which at least one player had 30.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points and the two player stack had a combined 60.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

Kansas City Chiefs

PositionPlayerSalaryDOFPs
QBPatrick Mahomes$45,000,00039.7
WR-TE-RBTravis Kelce$14,312,50038.5
Totals $59,312,50078.2

Cincinnati Bengals

PositionPlayerSalaryDOFPs
QBJoe Burrow$9,047,53437.2
WR-TE-RBSamaje Perine$1,650,00030.2
Totals $10,697,53467.4

Las Vegas Raiders

PositionPlayerSalaryDOFPs
QBDerek Carr$25,000,00031.3
WR-TE-RBDavante Adams$28,000,00036.1
Totals $53,000,00067.4

Cleveland Browns

PositionPlayerSalaryDOFPs
QBJacoby Brissett$4,650,00035.1
WR-TE-RBAmari Cooper$20,000,00031.3
Totals $24,650,00066.4

Dallas Cowboys

PositionPlayerSalaryDOFPs
QBDak Prescott$40,000,00027.4
WR-TE-RBTony Pollard$796,94536.9
Totals $40,796,94564.3

Los Angeles Chargers

PositionPlayerSalaryDOFPs
QBJustin Herbert$6,644,68828.5
WR-TE-RBJosh Palmer$1,258,36533.6
Totals $7,903,05362.1

San Francisco 49ers

PositionPlayerSalaryDOFPs
QBJimmy Garoppolo$7,000,00035.7
WR-TE-RBGeorge Kittle$15,000,00024.4
Totals $22,000,00060.1

Now that we see how well stacking worked in Week 11, let’s find out if the teams in the Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week had any of these stacks, or maybe another one that didn’t work out so well. The winner is going to be in first place in their League and in the lead for a playoff bye. Both of those teams were in the top 100 of the Chase for the Ring standings and we’ll look to see if they are still in the updated standings. We’ll also find out if Dynasty|Trade|School (D|T|S) is still in first place after Week 11 and which other top 10 teams are still there.

For the purposes of this article, all statistics. ADP and Dynasty Owner roster percentages were current as of the afternoon of November 22nd.

Dynasty Owner Player of the Week

Our eleventh Dynasty Owner Player of the Week for the 2022 season isn’t a single player, but easily the best QB-TE stack in Dynasty Owner (and possibly fantasy football) history. It’s the Kansas City Chiefs QB-TE stack of: Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce

The Player of the Week award has been split between a QB and WR from the same team three times in the past, and also once before by Mahomes and Kelce. They were the Players of the Week in the first round of the 2021 Dynasty Owner playoffs (aka Week 15). The Cincinnati Bengals’ QB-WR stack of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase ($7,704,910) also won the award together in Week 7 of last season. The first time it happened was in 2019 with a stack that has two players who haven’t played a single down in the 2022 regular season. The answer will appear in the Conclusions.

The reason why the Mahomes-Kelce stack worked so well this week and they were close together in Dynasty Owner fantasy points is because all three of Mahomes’ TD passes went to Kelce. Since Dynasty Owner awards 6.0 points for a TD pass, unlike many leagues that only award 4.0 points, Mahomes was able to score a few more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than Kelce. Mahomes had 39.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (329 passing yards, 23 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 1 fumble), while Kelce had 38.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (6 receptions, 115 receiving yards, 3 TDs). Both of them received the 3.0 point bonus for a clutch score on the 17-yard TD pass with 31 seconds left in the game that put the Chiefs in the lead. Mahomes is easily the QB1 and top scoring player in Dynasty Owner this season. He has scored 354.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, which is an average of 35.48 points per game. This puts his Week 11 Player of the Week performance at just above average. While he had the most points of any player in Week 11, it was just his fifth best Dynasty Owner fantasy point total of the season. He has scored over 40.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points four times, including the previous two weeks.

Week 11 Points: 39.7

2022 Salary: $45,000,000

Cost per Point: $1,133,501

Travis Kelce has the second highest TE salary in Dynasty Owner this season, but is the TE1 for the season. Last year was the first one in Dynasty Owner history in which he wasn’t TE1, and he apparently was so mad about it that he vowed to crush the competition this year. He’s done that by scoring 226.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, an average of 22.6 points per game. Mark Andrews ($14,000,000) is TE2 with just 133.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for the season, or nearly 100 fewer than Kelce (it’s 92.2 but nearly 100 sounds much larger). Kelce is the overall #10 player in Dynasty Owner and only 3.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points behind the top non-QB Austin Ekeler ($6,125,000) who is overall #8 with 229.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. An amazing season for Kelce capped in Week 11 with his best performance of the year and a split of the Dynasty Owner Player of the Week award with Mahomes.

Week 11 Points: 38.5

2022 Salary: $14,312,500

Cost per Point: $371,753

Congratulations to both Patrick and Travis on splitting the Dynasty Owner Player of the Week honor for the second time. It’s the eighth award for Patrick and the second one this season. It’s the second award for Travis and makes him the first TE to win this award more than once. As difficult as it might be, I bet his Dynasty Owners would like him to win one on his own, especially if they don’t have him stacked with Mahomes.

Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week

Because this is Dynasty Owner and we’re all looking for value from the players on our roster, we also have the Value Player of the Week. The eleventh Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week for the 2022 season makes a return appearance here for the second time in four weeks and is now the RB9 for the season. The winner is Tony Pollard.

Over the past four weeks, Pollard has won Value Player of the Week twice, lost in a somewhat close competition to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($895,000) in Week 10, and had a Week 9 bye. While the competition was somewhat close last week, it wasn’t this week with Pollard scoring 36.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (80 rushing yards, 6 receptions, 109 receiving yards, 2 TDs). That was the fourth highest Dynasty Owner fantasy point total of Week 11, behind Mahomes, Kelce and Joe Burrow who had 37.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. It’s been quite the stretch of games for Pollard who is still splitting the Cowboys’ backfield work with Ezekiel Elliott ($15,000,000). Pollard has 169.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for the season and is averaging 16.94 points per game. In contrast, Elliott is RB33 with 95.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in eight games, an average of 11.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. However, it’s Pollard who was the Value of the Week and set a career high in Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

Week 11 Points: 36.9

2022 Salary: $796,945

Cost per Point: $21,597

Congratulations Tony on the third Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week honor of your career. Only one more Value Player of the Week honor and you’ll be tied with Packers RB Aaron Jones ($12,000,000) who won four back in 2019 and 2020 when his salary was a mere $650,484.

Players Who Should Have Been Starters This Week

Now, we look at players who should have been one of your Starters based on their Week 11 performance. These are players who were more likely to be on your Bench or Practice Squad when they should have been in your Starting lineup.

QB: Jacoby Brissett (CLE – $4,650,000) – 35.1 points

In what was likely his second to last start with the Browns, Jacoby Brissett had his best game of the season. He had 35.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (324 passing yards, 29 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 1 fumble lost) and was the fourth best stack of the week with Amari Cooper as shown earlier. Brissett was the early favorite for Player of the Week as nobody in any of the 1 PM (Eastern) Sunday games had more points than he did.

As hopefully everyone is aware, Brissett is unlikely to start past next week not based on his performance, but because the 11-game suspension of Deshaun Watson ($46,000,000) will be over in time for Watson to start the Browns’ Week 13 game vs. the Houston Texans. How convenient that Watson’s suspension was 11 games and not 10 or 12 games. Watson is creeping up on being rostered in half of Dynasty Owner leagues (47.66%) if you are looking to acquire his services.

In his place, Brissett has performed better than expected for a caretaker Bench QB who was selected on average in the 20th round of Dynasty Owner startup drafts (ADP 235.3). He is QB19 for the season, averaging 19.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game and only scored fewer than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points once this season (9.3 points in Week 6 versus New England). Unless you had Mahomes, Burrow or Jimmy Garoppolo, he should have been in your Week 11 Dynasty Owner Starting lineup.

An honorable mention goes to Saints QB Andy Dalton ($3,000,000) who had 30.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (260 passing yards, -2 rushing yards, 3 TDs) and zero turnovers. Dalton needed a good week after two poor ones in a row with calls for him to be replaced by Jameis Winston ($14,000,000) getting louder, the QB he replaced as the Saints’ starter. Both of them are likely just placeholders for a rookie QB, but unlike Brissett, Dalton should be available for his Dynasty Owners to use past Week 12. What they should have done is use him in their Starting lineup in Week 11.

I’m not going to give even an honorable mention to 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo as he was mentioned in my Week 11 recommendations article. I said the combination of Monday Night Football plus the Arizona defense would be good for him and I was correct. However, I’ll be honest and say that I didn’t have him scoring 35.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to be the sixth highest scoring player of the week (Brissett was seventh and Dalton was eleventh), but I did think he would be worth having as your Week 11 Starter.

RB: Samaje Perine (CIN – $1,650,000) – 30.2 points

The QB-RB stack is far less common than the QB-WR stack and the QB-TE stack as most RBs aren’t pass catchers first and runners second. The biggest name RB to stack would definitely be Austin Ekeler with QB Justin Herbert. A QB stacked with a third-down pass catching RB might help some Dynasty Owner teams as well. Less common is stacking a QB with a backup RB, but if you did that with Joe Burrow and Samaje Perine this week, then it really paid off for you. As mentioned before, Burrow was the third highest scorer in Dynasty Owner this week with 37.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (355 passing yards, 5 rushing yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs).

Three of those TDs went to Perine who had the second best game of his career behind a 32.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy point effort in Week 16 of the 2020 season against Houston. This week, Perine replaced Joe Mixon ($12,000,000) after Mixon suffered a concussion. Perine had 30.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (30 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 52 receiving yards, 3 TDs) to help the Bengals defeat the Steelers by a score of 37-30. If any Dynasty Owners stacked Perine with Burrow in their Starting lineup, it was probably because of bye week and injury issues, not because they expected this performance from Perine.

WR: Josh Palmer (LAC – $1,258,365) – 33.6 points

If you went into the 2022 Dynasty Owner season with a Justin Herbert stack with either Keenan Allen ($20,025,000) or Mike Williams ($20,000,000), you were optimistic about how they would perform. The Herbert-Allen stack hasn’t worked out too well as Allen has only played in three games. The Herbert-Williams stack was better through the first seven games, but Williams missed all of the past two Chargers’ games and didn’t play much in Week 11 before reaggravating his ankle injury.

In their place, it’s been a lot of Austin Ekeler, but in Week 11, Josh Palmer stepped forward and had 33.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (8 receptions, 108 yards, 2 TDs). The second TD was a clutch score as it put the Chargers in front of the Chiefs with 1:46 left in the game. That was too much time for Mahomes who marched Chiefs down the field on a 6 play drive, 75 yard drive in just 1 minute and 15 seconds to retake the lead. Herbert had a fine week as well with 28.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, so if you stacked Herbert and Palmer in your Starting lineup, you were pretty happy. It was the best performance in Palmer’s 26 game NFL career and hopefully you had him in your Starting lineup for it.

TE: Austin Hooper (TEN – $6,000,000) – 19.6 points

In a comeback of sorts, Austin Hooper had his first 2 TD game since he was on the Atlanta Falcons back in 2019. He was TE6 in Dynasty Owner and signed a big contract with the Browns after that season. He didn’t earn his $10.5 million salary and was released by the Browns after two seasons back in March. He signed a one-year $6 million contract with Tennessee but hadn’t done much up until Week 11 with just 36.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (17 receptions for 191 receiving yards) in ten games played.

Things started to improve in Week 10 as Hooper had 9.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (5 receptions for 41 yards) and he really took a step forward in Week 11. Hooper had 19.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (4 receptions, 36 receiving yards, 2 TDs) on Thursday night. The first TD was a 3-yard reception from Derrick Henry ($12,500,000) in third quarter on a sweet looking jump pass by Henry that completely fooled the Green Bay defense.

Hooper is now TE25 for the 2022 season, in line with his TE25 ranking last year and TE22 ranking in 2020. With plenty of starting TEs on Injured Reserve or on bye in Week 11, maybe there was a chance that Dynasty Owners with Hooper (54.04% rostered) had him in their Starting lineup and got all 19.6 points, instead of just the 4.9 points they would have gotten with Hooper on their Bench.

K: Brett Maher (DAL – $965,000) – 21.0 points and Tyler Bass (BUF – $869,804) – 20.0 points

Having the current top two kickers in Dynasty Owner probably is not what this section is intended for, but even though both of them may have been in plenty of Dynasty Owner Starting lineups, they deserve a mention here. Both of them scored 20.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points in a week as kickers, which is very difficult to do. They both have scored 89.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points now on the season after their Week 11 performances.

Before Week 11, they were mid-tier Starting kickers, but only a few points separated them from the low-end Starters or high-end Bench kickers, so they weren’t obvious Starters. However, both kicked very well indoors in Week 11 with Maher converting all eight of his kicks on the road against Minnesota and Bass was a perfect 7 for 7 in his “home” game in Detroit. Maher had a 60-yard FG plus two others of 50 yards or more (50 and 53 yards) worth 5.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points each, a 27-yard FG worth only 2.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and four PATs worth 1.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point each. Bass made his only PAT attempt as well as six FGs from all three distance ranges (28, 36, 39, 42, 49, and 56 yards).

Players Who Should Have Been on the Bench or Practice Squad

For every player who should have been in your Starting lineup but wasn’t, we have at least one highly drafted or ranked player who probably was in your Starting lineup, but scored few, or even negative Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 11. All of them should have been riding your Bench or hanging out on the Practice Squad.

QB: Kirk Cousins (MIN – $33,000,000) – 2.2 points

At the start of Week 11, Cousins was QB12, but there were four QBs ahead of him on bye, so he was firmly a Dynasty Owner Starting QB. That didn’t work out well at all for anyone who has Cousins on their roster (73.19%) as he only scored 2.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (105 passing yards and 1 lost fumble) before getting pulled for his backup Nick Mullens ($2,000,000) who had 54 passing yards and more Dynasty Owner fantasy points in two drives (2.7 points) than Cousins did in eight drives. Cousins is the QB17 now after his worst performance since back in Week 2 of the 2020 season when few Dynasty Owners had him on their roster and he had -3.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against Indianapolis. Hopefully you weren’t surprised by how badly Cousins and the Vikings played in Week 11 (unlike me) and had Cousins on your Dynasty Owner Bench.

RB: D’Onta Foreman (CAR – $2,000,000) – 2.4 points

In the four weeks since Christian McCaffrey ($16,015,875) was traded from Carolina to San Francisco and D’Onta Foreman became the Panthers’ starting RB, he had a total of 77.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (19.35 points per game) and had been a solid starting RB in three of those weeks. The only week he should have been on your Bench was Week 9 versus Cincinnati when he only had 4.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Foreman played another AFC North team (Baltimore) in Week 11 and had a similar Bench-worthy result with only 2.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (24 rushing yards on 11 carries). Hopefully Dynasty Owners with Foreman noticed that and took it as a reason to put him on their Bench.

Dishonorable mention to James Robinson ($763,333) of the Jets who is currently one spot ahead of Foreman at RB36 after only scoring 1.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point (10 rushing yards on 7 carries). Robinson has played in three games now since coming over from Jacksonville and only scored a total of 16.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Of course, 13.3 of those Dynasty Owner fantasy points came before the Jets’ Week 10 bye, so maybe some Dynasty Owners with Robinson thought he’d play more like he did versus Buffalo in Week 9 than New England in Week 8 when he only had 1.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Since the Jets were playing New England again, having Robinson on your Dynasty Owner Bench instead of your Starting lineup was the correct decision.

WR: Devin Duvernay (BAL – $1,143,952) – 1.8 points

It’s not a good thing to appear here twice in the span of three weeks as Devin Duvernay has now done. It’s even worse when the week he wasn’t here was because his team was on bye. In the two games since Duvernay was declared the Ravens’ top WR after Rashod Bateman ($3,149,853) was placed on Injured Reserve, he has scored a total of 3.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (2 receptions, 8 receiving yards, 4 rushing yards, 5 return yards). In Week 9, he only had 1.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (1 reception for 5 yards). In Week 11, he was better and scored Dynasty Owner fantasy points in three ways – rushing, receiving and returning – and yet only had a total of 1.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (1 reception for 3 yards, 4 rushing yards, 5 return yards). I’m not sure if that’s the fewest number of Dynasty Owner fantasy points scored by a player who got points in three ways, but it has to be close. He’s down to WR38 after the past two weeks, but was definitely in the range for being a WR2 or FLEX Starter in Week 11. If your Dynasty Owner team had better options, I hope you took advantage and left Duvernay on your Bench.

TE:  Robert Tonyan (GB – $3,750,000) – 3.9 points, David Njoku (CLE – $13,687,500) – 3.7 points and Tyler Conklin (NYJ – $6,750,000) – 3.5 points

This was a tough decision, so in the end, I decided to just put all three of them and not give out a couple of dishonorable mentions. These three players are what a low-end Dynasty Owner TE1 looks like in the year 2022. All three were in the top 16 TEs before Week 11 and because of injuries to Zach Ertz ($10,550,000), Dallas Goedert ($14,250,000) and Gerald Everett ($6,000,000) plus Evan Engram ($9,000,000) being on a bye, all three of them were in the top 12 available TEs for Week 11. Even after terrible performances of less than 4.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points each, they are still in the top 16 now. Fortunately, Engram is back off bye and maybe Everett will be back as well. Tonyan is currently TE16 and had the most points in Week 11 from the TE trio with 3.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (2 receptions, 19 receiving yards). David Njoku is one spot above Tonyan at TE15 and he had only 3.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (2 receptions, 17 receiving yards). Finally, we have current TE13 Tyler Conklin who is technically TE11 among non-injured TEs and had 3.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (2 receptions, 15 receiving yards). All of them should have been on your Dynasty Owner Bench in Week 11. Good luck to every Dynasty Owner who has to figure out whether to have one of these TEs as their Week 12 Starter or not.

K: Graham Gano (NYG – $4,666,667) – -2.0 points

Gano was tied as the fourth ranked kicker prior to Week 11 with 72.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. His margin over the three kickers ranked 11th was only 6.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and that evaporated with his -2.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point effort (two missed PAT attempts). That performance dropped him down to a tie as the 12th ranked kicker now, but as we saw with Brett Maher and Tyler Bass, he could be one great performance away from the top spot. That’s just how it goes with kickers in Dynasty Owner.

Dishonorable mention to Patriots kicker Nick Folk who had a bad game in the windy conditions in Foxboro with -1.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Folk actually made a FG of less than 39 yards (24 yards), but missed two from the 40-49 yard range (43 and 44 yards). He also made the PAT after the game-winning 84 yard punt return TD by Marcus Jones. I had to mention that didn’t I? Even though he was the 3rd ranked kicker at the time, Folk should have been on your Dynasty Owner Bench due to the weather conditions. Hopefully you had him there and didn’t get the full -1.0 points for your team.

Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week Recap

High Rollerz vs. Quaranteam – Writer’s League (League #80545)

Despite the stack theme for this week, neither team in our Match-up of the Week got the memo and so they didn’t have any stacks at all in their Starting lineups or on their Bench. If I had know, I might have picked a different Match-up. It did fit the playoff byes theme from the Week 11 preview article so let’s find out who won and is in the driver’s seat for that playoff bye.

Quaranteam won the Match-up of the Week to move to 9-2 and first place in the Writer’s League (League #80545). They have the same record as Dirty Hippie Farmer, but are ahead by 218.2 points, so first place is Quaranteam’s. They are also doing well in the Chase for the Ring and currently sit in 29th place with 1,742.8 points. High Rollerz are 8-3, but fortunately in third place as DixieNormus also lost. High Rollerz did drop out of the top 100 in the Chase for the Ring by a mere 7.8 points.

In the match-up, it was Travis Kelce and his 38.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points plus Jalen Hurts ($1,506,292) who had 29.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points that powered Quaranteam to victory. Michael Pittman ($2,153,212) was their only other Starter with double-digit points (13.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). Josh Allen ($43,005,667) was High Rollerz’s high scorer and since he only had 16.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, you know it was a bad game all around for High Rollerz. Nobody in their Starting lineup was truly terrible as Miles Sanders ($1,337,544) was their worst Starter and he still had 5.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

While I’m disappointed that neither team had a stack, it wasn’t because they didn’t try. Quaranteam had a QB-WR stack of Kyler Murray ($8,914,504) and Marquise Brown ($2,946,835) for a day after acquiring Murray the day before Brown got injured. If both of them come back this season, Quaranteam can start to use that Cardinals’ stack. They also did draft Brown and Lamar Jackson ($23,016,000) to be a QB-WR stack in the 2021 league startup draft when Brown was on the Ravens. High Rollerz tried to trade for Stefon Diggs ($14,400,000) with DixieNormus back in early June to get the Allen-Diggs stack, but the trade is listed as Cancelled.

If you have a Week 12 match-up that is shaping up to be a good one, then let me know on Twitter (@SteveVT33). It doesn’t have to have a stack or even a Chase for the Ring contender in it for me to use your Match-up. Please hurry as because of Thanksgiving, the Match-up of the Week and Week 12 preview article will be published on Wednesday in advance of the holiday.

Chase for the Ring Leaderboard

Last Tuesday, we had the third consecutive week with the same ten teams in the top 10 in the Chase for the Ring. Let’s find out if that streak ended.

It did indeed end as we lost one of the three Clara Strong 💪 teams. The one from League #34662 is no longer in the top 10. Don’t fret for them as they are in 11th place and only 1.4 points away from their rightful spot in the top 10. In their place, we have The Road Warriors. Hawk and Animal are back from their second place finish in 2021 to make their first top 10 appearance of 2022. After lurking just on the outside by being in 12th place after Weeks 8 and 9 and 11th place after Week 10, they finally made it back and are currently in 9th place.

We have a new leader with Blaze’s Backyard Burners on top after two weeks in second place. Dynasty|Trade|School (D|T|S) is now in second place by 24.9 points, followed by juan blanco, The Oracle 🙌 and Stayner. Stayner is back in the top 5 after a week in sixth place. The Oracle 🙌 continues their steady climb up since their first top 10 appearance in Week 7. They were in 9th place at that time and have moved up to fourth place now. The bottom half of the top 10 has moved around a bit as well with only Crangis McBasketball in the same spot as last week (10th place).

Stacking is in vogue for about half of the top 10 as five teams had a stack in their Week 12 lineup and five teams did not. That’s on par with what our analysis of 2020 Chase for the Ring teams found. None of the teams have the same stack, although two have a QB-WR stack with Tua Tagovailoa ($7,568,859). Blaze’s Backyard Burners has Tyreek Hill at WR, while The Oracle 🙌 has Jaylen Waddle ($6,771,498).

The one thing that all of the top 10 teams have in common is Travis Kelce. He’s in the Starting lineup for all of those teams. I’m not sure if he’s been there all year or not, but I have to think he will be there moving forward for the rest of the season.

Conclusions

The first Dynasty Owner stack to win Player of the Week honors together were Deshaun Watson ($46,000,000) and Will Fuller ($10,625,011) who did it for the Houston Texans in Week 5 of the 2019 beta season. It was the first stack to win the award together, the highest scoring stack (Fuller had 58.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and Watson had 58.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) and the only one in which the receiver scored more than the QB. Watson had 426 passing yards, 47 rushing yards and 5 TDs, while Fuller had 14 receptions for 217 receiving yards and 3 TDs. Believe it or not, both of them lost points by fumbling, Fuller did it once and Watson did it twice. None of the fumbles were lost, so all of them were only a 1.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point deduction. That was so long ago that the Texans won the AFC South division title, ten games and even a Wild Card playoff game over the Buffalo Bills. They have only won a total of nine games since that season.

Because of Thanksgiving, the articles and other Dynasty Owner content is going to start stacking up. The Free Agent Auction targets from Jay Pounds came out on Tuesday as well. Matt Morrison – The Jerk will continue his Opportunity Is (Almost) Everything series by looking at WRs on Wednesday and then he’ll look at the three Thanksgiving Day games in his usual Thursday Night Football preview article. My Week 12 preview article will appear on Wednesday and the Week 12 recommendations will be ready on Thursday before the Thanksgiving games start.

Everyone can listen to this week’s Dynasty Owner podcast with me and Jay, as well as the Champions podcast featuring our three Dynasty Owner Chase for the Ring Champions. The Dynasty Owner Livestream is back this week on Wednesday at 12:30 PM (Eastern). Tim and I will answer trade and other questions and talk about Dynasty Owner and fantasy football in general. You can also catch it afterwards on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel if you can’t watch us live. Finally, don’t forget to follow Dynasty Owner on Twitter as well. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner