Free Agent Friday: Opening Week

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello Dynasty Owners and welcome to The Opening. Free Agency officially opened a couple of days ago. That means that in the time since last Friday, there have been an abundance of players who have been signed, re-signed, cut and traded. I’m not going to waste any time with an intro as we have a lot to talk about.

As I have been doing all off season, this article is going to be limited to players who I deem to be “rosterable” in Dynasty Owner leagues. This criteria is usually centered around the 50% ownership mark in Dynasty Owner, but I make exceptions one way or another sometimes. There are some players who I already talked about last week, and I will not repeat them today. Go and read last week’s article if you want a breakdown of the activity from last week that is not mentioned here.

Signings, Trades and Releases

Amari Cooper (Traded to Cleveland for a 5th round value)

I’m not surprised that a Cowboys player got traded, and I’m not even really shocked that it was Cooper, but I am surprised by the compensation. Cooper and a 2022 6th were traded to the Browns for a 2022 5th and 2022 6th. A 5th round value is much less than I expected Cooper to go for even though he is an aging wide receiver. I can’t expect anyone will be more optimistic about Cooper this year than they were last year. He’s not an Amnesty Provision candidate yet, but I could see him heading that way throughout the 2022 season.

Jakobi Meyers (Tendered by New England at 1 year – $3,986,000)

Jakobi Meyers was one of my most rostered players in Dynasty Owner last season. He wasn’t a player who lit up the box scores with fantasy goodness, but he was a very good value. Any above average wide receiver who makes less than $1,000,00 per year will usually be a good value. The Patriots have placed a tender on Meyers, and he will make nearly 4 million dollars in 2022. Obviously don’t expect the same efficiency from Meyers, but he will still be a hold for me.

Michael Gallup (Signed with Dallas at 5 years – $57,500,000)

Several weeks ago, I predicted that Gallup would make roughly 12 million dollars per year on his next contract. That ended up being nearly spot on. The final numbers work out to be 11.5 million dollars per year for the next five years. He goes from one of the biggest values in all of football to a middle-tier wide receiver value. While he should still be rostered in the majority of Dynasty Owner leagues, I also realize that a lot of Dynasty Owners who rostered him will not be able to afford this new contract. Do what you have to do, but I would be trying to hold Gallup myself. Gallup ranked 8th on my list of free agents who I was most excited about. We can officially cross him off the list.

Chase Edmonds (Signed with Miami at 2 years – $12,100,000)

I had a hard time containing my excitement when I heard that Edmonds was signing with the Dolphins. Selfishly, this had nothing to do with Edmonds, but I’ll get to that with the next player breakdown. As for Edmonds, he should immediately become the first string running back for the Dolphins. He also immediately becomes the most talented back on the team. This move essentially buries Duke Johnson and Phillip Lindsay on the depth chart, assuming they both are re-signed as well. The fact that Edmonds was signed makes me think that neither Johnson nor Lindsay will sign with Miami. After all, Myles Gaskin is still there, and he is a more than capable backup to Edmonds.

James Conner (Signed with Arizona at 3 years – $21,000,000)

Boy was I excited to hear this news. Not only does Conner re-sign with the team he scored 15 rushing touchdowns with the previous year, but he does so without the return of his teammate, Chase Edmonds. This, seemingly, puts Conner in line for an even bigger workload than he had in 2021. I can’t expect the touchdowns to increase, but I’m hopeful that his receptions will. This is about the best case scenario I could have imagined for both Conner and the Dynasty Owners with Conner on their roster. Scratch my #1 free agent off the list.

Jarvis Landry (Released from Cleveland)

Jarvis Landry has been released by the Cleveland Browns. This move came on the heels of Amari Cooper being traded to the Browns. There’s not much to speculate on for Landry. I’ll reserve my judgment on him until he signs with a new team (which I think will happen).

Zach Ertz (Signed with Arizona at 3 years – $31,650,000)

ach Ertz is the second large Cardinals’ free agent signing of this article.  Ertz is poised to be a Top 5 tight end once again. Dynasty Owners who rostered him last year will not have to increase their cap expectations by much. At only $10,550,000, he costs less than a franchise tagged tight end (Mike Gesicki, David Njoku, Dalton Schultz). That’s kind of an odd occurrence, but it’s also sometimes better to give yourself a longer contract than just a single year.

D’Ernest Johnson (Tendered by Cleveland at 1 year – $2,443,000)

Here is one of those unique situations where a restricted free agent is offered a transition tag.  Let me explain what this means…

D’Ernest Johnson has only accrued three years of service in the NFL. Because of that the Browns are able to offer him a conditional tender. If any other team gives him a better offer, the Browns are allowed to match this offer or refuse the tender. Essentially Johnson has very few choices and that was reflected in his tender of 1 year – $2,443,000. After this season, Johnson will be an unrestricted free agent, and he will have the full freedoms that come with it. Expect Johnson to be an extremely capable third string running back this season.

Mitchell Trubisky (Signed by Pittsburgh at 2 years – $14,200,000)

Here is a signing that I am surprisingly optimistic about. Of course, there are numerous ways that this could go wrong for Mitchell, but I prefer to be hopeful. Trubisky is far and away better than the other possible options for Pittsburgh this season. He won’t be a MVP contender.  He probably won’t lead the league in any statistic. Here is what I think he will be…

Better than Ben Roethlisberger.

That’s right, I’m saying that Trubisky will overall be a better real life and fantasy quarterback than Ben was in 2021. Odds are that this signing will only be a single year bridge until Pittsburgh can find their “quarterback of the future”.

Christian Kirk (Signed by Jacksonville at 4 years – $72,000,000)

This signing received the biggest amount of backlash on Twitter (at least that I saw). I had Kirk projected at 8 million dollars per year and possibly up to 10 million per year. What I didn’t expect was a Top 10 wide receiver contract. Don’t get me wrong, I like Kirk as a player, but there is no way that I can see anyone rostering him with an 18 million dollar cap hit. He will be one of the most dropped players over the next few weeks, and I don’t blame any Dynasty Owner for doing that. He has the talent and opportunity to be a Top 20 wide receiver, but with his salary, he would need to break into the Top 5 for the value to be there. Pass on Kirk…

D.J. Chark (Signed by Detroit at 1 year – $10,000,000)

D.J. Chark signed a single year contract with the Detroit Lions. I don’t hate the signing or the dollar amount. I had him slotted at $11,000,000 per year, and that ended up being pretty spot on. Chark should immediately step into the WR1 spot for the Lions. I can’t promise that spot will be very valuable, but I would hold Chark for now if I currently had him on my Dynasty Owner roster.

J.D. McKissic (Committed to Buffalo at 2 years – $7,000,000)

                           (Changed his mind and signed with Washington at 2 years – $7,000,000)

News broke that McKissic intended to sign with the Buffalo Bills. Less than a day later, it was reported that he had changed his mind and would now remain with the Commanders for the 2022 season at least. The deal is 2 years – $7,000,000, and we will continue to see McKissic taking valuable touches away from Antonio Gibson.

James White (Signed by New England at 2 years – $5,000,000)

James White will return to the only NFL team that he has ever played for. Barring another catastrophic injury, White will once again be the most reliable check down running back for the Patriots.

Russell Gage (Signed by Tampa Bay at 3 years – $30,000,000)

I believed that Gage had the potential to be a top wide receiver free agent for quite a few teams. I can’t think of a better landing spot for Gage than Tampa Bay. He will get to work with the most accomplished quarterback in NFL history. Yes, he will be the third wide receiver for the Buccaneers on the depth chart, but we have seen that can still be a valuable position in Dynasty Owner.

Chris Godwin (Signed by Tampa Bay at 3 years – $60,000,000)

Godwin had previously been offered a franchise tag by the Buccaneers. This was offered exactly eight days before this long term deal was worked out. I had projected that this franchise tag was just a placeholder until a new deal could be worked out. In all, Godwin’s salary barely increases per year. Dynasty Owners should be prepared to pay 20 million dollars for him in 2022.

Allen Robinson (Signed by Los Angeles Rams at 3 years – $46,500,000)

The 28-year old pass catcher has finally found his new team. He also has found the most talented team he has ever played for. At this point, the Rams are starting to seem like an embarrassment of riches. This has to be good for Robinson, but I don’t see how he could be a high volume receiver with Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and possibly Odell Beckham, Jr. still on the team.

Davante Adams (Traded to Raiders and signed at 5 years – $141,250,000)

I was just about ready to call it a week with this article, but then news of Adams being traded to the Raiders broke Thursday night. This works out to be over 28 million dollars per year, and it makes Adams the highest-paid non quarterback player in the NFL. Adams will still be rostered in the majority of Dynasty Owner leagues, but I cannot say the same for his teammate Aaron Rodgers. This move by Adams makes dropping Rodgers one of the easiest decisions you could make. 

Quick Hitters

There are several free agents who deserve to be talked about and mentioned here, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they need a full breakdown. These are those players. I call them…Quick Hitters.

C.J. Uzomah

Signed by New York Jets at 3 years – $24,000,000

Teddy Bridgewater

Signed by Miami at 1 year – $6,500,000

Cedrick Wilson

Signed by Miami at 3 years – $22,050,000

Mo Alie-Cox

Signed by Indianapolis at 3 years – $17,550,000

Evan Engram

Signed by Jacksonville at 1 year – $9,000,000

Byron Pringle

Signed by Chicago at 1 year – $6,000,000

I can almost guarantee you that I missed someone in this article.  If you noticed that I missed someone egregious, let me know on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and I’ll talk about them in the next article. This was a lengthy article, but it was also a necessary one. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Hopefully we have just as much to talk about next week. Until then, take care and be safe.

TheJerk

Free Agent Friday: News & Top Free Agents

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Last week I finished talking about each notable free agent from each division. That wrapped up Phase One one of my off-season article series. Over the next two weeks, I will be transitioning into Phase Two where I talk about each team a little more in depth. This will also be a good time to recap a lot of the free agents who have signed new contracts. Speaking of new contracts and news, let me use the first half of this article to break down some breaking news since last Friday…

The News

Early Tuesday I thought that I had a major news story that I would be able to use to take up the entirety of this section. That news was the fact that Aaron Rodgers will be returning to the Packers for at least the 2022 season. I have heard rumors that a new contract of 4 years – 200 million dollars is being discussed. Of course, this is not a concrete, signed contract, but I think this will likely be close to the final deal. This would make Rodgers the highest paid quarterback in the NFL. It would also make owning him much more difficult in Dynasty Owner. Anyone who dedicates more than a third of their cap to a single player is asking for management troubles at other positions. Let’s wait and see the final contract, but expect a substantial increase if you have Rodgers on your Dynasty Owner roster.

This news was quickly overshadowed by news that Russell Wilson was being traded to the Denver Broncos.

(I should mention that this trade is technically official from Wilson’s end as he passed his physical and approved the trade. Now we just have to wait for the other players involved to pass their physicals, but that shouldn’t be a problem.)

At any rate, here is the trade…

  • Denver gets Russell Wilson and a 2022 4th round pick.
  • Seattle gets Shelby Harris, Drew Lock, Noah Fant, a 2022 1st round pick, 2022 2nd round pick, 2022 5th round pick, 2023 1st round pick and a 2023 2nd round pick.

In my opinion, Wilson immediately becomes a stronger fantasy asset with the Broncos. He has better offensive weapons than his past few years as well as a much easier division to play in (defensively at least). My opinion on Russ hasn’t changed all too much, but I am more optimistic for him.

Now for the bad…I see this as a major downgrade for Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, and Noah Fant. I don’t think it’s realistic that Drew Lock is the starting quarterback for the Seahawks the entire 2022 season, but the alternatives may actually be worse. It’s likely Seattle will use one of their newly acquired picks to draft a rookie quarterback. 

Noah Fant is a player who takes a massive hit with this trade. Not that I think this will affect Fant’s play on his own, but the lack of clarity from the quarterback position makes his fantasy outlook very dubious. I have a lot more to say about this trade, and I will talk about it much more over the next few months. For right now though, I think this sums up my initial thoughts.

A trio of tight ends were given a franchise tag this week. Mike Gesicki signed his tag on Tuesday. Unless a new deal is reached by July, Gesicki will make $10,931,000 for a single year. The same result happened for Dalton Schultz. Schultz was also given a tight end franchise tag which ends up being the same dollar amount as Gesicki, $10,931,000. David Njoku is the third TE to receive a franchise tag. All three tight ends will play under the same dollar amount in 2022. However, their levels of value and success will likely widely differ. If I had to rank them right now, I’d say Gesicki, Schultz and Njoku.

Other players “slapped” with a franchise tag include Davante Adams and Chris Godwin. Like Gesicki, this tag could very well just be a placeholder until a long term deal can be reached. If a new contract cannot be worked out between either of these players and their team, then each will cost Dynasty Owners more than the previous year. Adams will cost $20,145,000 for one year while Godwin will cost $19,180,000 for one year. The biggest news is that both top-level wide receivers will be returning to their teams in 2022.

Finally, Mike Williams signed a 3 year – $60,000,000 contract. This will equal $20,000,000 per year, and puts him right on track for what I expected him to make. Once again, I think the biggest takeaway from these tags and signings is that we have several big name players who have decided their future prior to Free Agency even opening. Big things are happening, and I expect them to only get bigger as we look ahead a few weeks.

Top Free Agents Remaining

In the second half of this article, I will list the Top 10 free agents who I am watching this off-season. What’s funny is that three of my Top 10 were signed on Tuesday of this week (Adams, Godwin and Williams). Therefore, I will remove those three from the list and start anew.

Top 10PlayerAgeStatus2021 SalaryMarket Value
1James Conner26UFA$1,750,000$6,500,000
2Allen Robinson28UFA$17,880,000$16,000,000
3JuJu Smith-Schuster25UFA$8,000,000$12,000,000
4Melvin Gordon28UFA$8,000,000$6,000,000
5Odell Beckham Jr29UFA$1,250,000$12,000,000
6D.J. Chark25UFA$1,111,807$11,000,000
7Ronald Jones26UFA$1,767,977$4,000,000
8Michael Gallup25UFA$880,995$12,000,000
9Leonard Fournette27UFA$3,250,000$7,000,000
10Robert Tonyan Jr.27UFA$3,384,000$8,000,000

I never thought that I would be writing this article with James Conner as my top watched free agent. Not that I don’t care about where Conner signs (I clearly do), but it surprised me that he is Number One. I suppose that’s what happens when your original top three players all sign contracts right before the franchise tag deadline.

There are plenty of great free agents still left to sign. What we do know is that none of the players on this list will receive a tag of any sort. The time for that has come and gone. The next news we will hear about any of them will likely be shortly after free agency opens. Remember that happens in the middle of next week (March 16th at 4pm ET)

This is one of my favorite football weeks of the year, and I hope you’re ready for a packed article next week. As always, thank you for reading. If there is any player that you want me to spend more time talking about, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Free Agent Friday: NFC South

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

The opening of free agency and the start of the new NFL league year are quickly approaching. To be specific, it is 12 days away. Today, I will present to you the final division in my Free Agent Friday series. Next week, I’ll recap some of the most important free agents who I’ve talked about in the past two months. After free agency opens, I’ll have a (likely) very long article that recaps all of the players who have been signed to that point. I’ll also talk about some of the rumors that surround unsigned players. But for now, let’s finish the divisional component to this series.

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Chris Godwin26UFA$15,983,000$18,000,000
Rob Gronkowski32UFA$8,000,000$10,000,000
Leonard Fournette27UFA$3,250,000$7,000,000
Ronald Jones24UFA$1,767,977$4,000,000
Giovani Bernard30UFA$1,212,500$2,000,000

There are an abundance of pivotal free agents for the Bucs this year. The retirement of Tom Brady makes all of their situations dubious to say the least. However, there is still plenty of potential for this team, and I don’t think a full rebuild is part of the plan this year. Given that idea, I think that three of these five players will resign with the Bucs.

This may not be a popular opinion, but I actually think Godwin re-signs with Tampa Bay. It will cost them roughly 18 million dollars per year, and it will cost Dynasty Owners close to the same amount no matter where he lands. Godwin has shown he’s able to be a Top 10 wide receiver throughout his career. He finished WR16 in 2021, but he also missed the final three games.

Gronk is unlikely to retire this late into the off-season, but I also don’t think he will play for the Bucs in 2022. Rumors of the Bills being interested is a very intriguing idea. I’m not sure that makes much sense with a top level tight end (Dawson Knox) already on the roster. Regardless, it will cost about 10 million dollars per year to roster Gronk assuming he doesn’t retire.

Leonard Fournette has been one of the biggest surprise players for Dynasty Owners over the past two seasons. Ever since he was waived by the Jaguars, he has seemingly resurrected his career. That being said, I think the Bucs allow him to “walk.”  Fournette is an older running back, but he is likely to receive the biggest contract of his career. The going rate will be roughly $7,000,000 per year.

I see no reason why Ronald Jones and Giovani Bernard shouldn’t both be re-signed by Tampa Bay. They are both well above average, and they will not be expected to accept a high-tier contract. Bernard is probably getting close to the final deal of his career. He has shown to be a reliable pass catching option especially on third down. Whoever the quarterback is for Tampa Bay in 2022, they will likely need a reliable checkdown option. Bernard fits that description.

New Orleans Saints

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Jameis Winston28UFA$5,500,000$8,000,000

Jameis Winston is the sole player for the Saints who I want to talk about today. I don’t think he is the quarterback that can or will take them to the playoffs over the next few years. Winston has always been a solid quarterback option for fantasy players. This is especially true when he played in games against opposing offenses that were above average.  Unfortunately, his fantasy points have not really translated into real world success. Winston’s propensity to turn the ball over has made it a shaky move to start the upcoming season with him as the starter.  Regardless, someone will take a chance on Winston, and it will cost that team between 8 and 10 million dollars per year.

Atlanta Falcons

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Cordarrelle Patterson30UFA$3,000,000$8,000,000
Hayden Hurst28UFA$2,759,007$5,000,000
Russell Gage26UFA$654,049$6,000,000

Cordarrelle Patterson was one of the honorable mentions for my Value of the Year players for the 2021 season. Ultimately, his salary of $3,000,000 was too much to overcome his dominant fantasy year. Well, his 2022 value is not going to get better. Not only will his salary more than double, I find it hard to believe that he will have as many fantasy points as last year. Continue to roster him, but be advised of the contract increase.

Hayden Hurst lost a lot of value as soon as Kyle Pitts was drafted last year. I would consider Hurst one of the better blocking tight ends in the league. For this reason, he will make close to $5,000,000 next season. Don’t expect a big fantasy season from Hurst, and he may even be a player you consider dropping after his contract is made known.

Russell Gage’s salary will 10x this offseason. There are plenty of contending teams that are looking for a WR2 or WR3 like Gage. Expect him to make over $5,000,000 per year, and I anticipate the competition will force him from the Falcons.

Carolina Panthers

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Cam Newton32UFA$6,000,000$4,000,000
Ian Thomas25Signed$5,500,000N/A

I asked myself a few questions while I started to think about Cam Newton.

  • “Will he get a new contract?”
  • “Should he get a new contract?”

The answer to the second question depends on who you ask, but I believe the answer is yes to both. Yes, I know that he had a very poor last couple of seasons, but he would still be one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL. I don’t think he could offensively be trusted to lead a team for the entire season, but he could be a fine fill-in quarterback due to injury for a few weeks. I like Cam to make $4,000,000.

Ian Thomas is one of the first new signings of the 2022 off-season. Thomas signed a 3-year contract worth a total of $16,500,000. That is good for $5,500,000 per year. His 2021 salary was only $801,999. I dislike this number from a value standpoint, but I would also have predicted a little more. In the end, this contract won’t be manageable for most Dynasty Owners, and I’m not sure it would be worth rostering him. He totaled less than 40.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in each of his last two seasons.

That wraps up my 8-part divisional series on the notable free agents. I will talk about every one of these free agents at least one more time throughout the off-season. Thank you for reading. Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

Free Agent Friday: AFC West

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

The opening of NFL free agency is quickly approaching. The actual date is March 16 at 4 pm ET. We know that this date historically is the epicenter of major news and signings. I expect that this year will be no different. In addition to this date, there are several other important happenings around the NFL. As I did last year, allow me to give you some of the more important things that will be occurring over the next few months.

Franchise and Transition Tag Period:

February 22 – March 8

During this time, all teams must make a decision on whether or not they want to franchise, or transition tag a player. After this window has passed, we will know who has been “tagged” in any fashion.

NFL Scouting Combine:

March 1 – 7

The Scouting Combine was once one of my favorite events to watch when it comes to the NFL. COVID has taken a lot of that joy away because it’s not the consolidated, all-encompassing event that it once was. Many players opted out of the combine or participated in their hometowns with unofficial results. Thankfully, the NFL has relaxed some of the restrictions for this year, and it looks like it will be closer to a regular combine than the two years previously.

Free Agency Contact Begins:

March 14

There are strict rules in the NFL (like most sports) about how and when a player may be contacted about a possible contract. Up until this date, teams are prohibited from contacting free agents. Again, this may not mean much to us as Dynasty Owners other than the fact that we will probably be getting a heavy amount of rumors flying during this 48 hour period.

New NFL League Year and Free Agency Begins:

March 16

This is the date that all of us are waiting for…NFL free agency will open at 4 pm ET on March 16. Last year, we watched as free agents were signed very quickly. I anticipate this year will be the same. I will be sure to update you all every Friday with the newest info about all the free agents we have and will talk about in these articles.

These are all the events that are currently on my radar. It’s worth mentioning that the NFL Draft will take place from April 28 – 30.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Byron Pringle28UFA$2,133,000$4,000,000
Darrel Williams26UFA$1,600,000$3,000,000
Jerick McKinnon29UFA$990,000$1,500,000

The Chiefs have the majority of their offensive firepower returning for the 2022 season. Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH), Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will all be returning on the same contracts they had in 2021. Here are three lesser known players that played minor (but important) roles for the Chiefs in the past.

Byron Pringle actually had moderate success last season. He was quite inconsistent but did manage to have five games over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. There is little room for additional playmakers for the Chiefs given that Hill and Kelce take so much of the production. Not only that, but it’s been hard to predict which secondary player will step up on any given day. I expect Pringle to resign with KC for roughly double his previous contract.

Speaking of inconsistent, Darrel Williams was just that in 2021. He filled in nicely for CEH when CEH missed five games in the middle of the season, but Williams’ upside is very much limited when Clyde is healthy and in the lineup. I don’t see any reason why Williams shouldn’t be re-signed, however. He will cost more than last year, but it’s a worthy price to pay for a very capable backup running back. Unfortunately, you shouldn’t expect him to be a high scoring running back for a 3 million dollar salary.

Jerick McKinnon is likely on his way out of Kansas City. He was largely a non-factor in 2021, and he is nearing age 30. Expect McKinnon to leave the Chiefs and possibly find his last contract as a backup running back for a team in need. If you want to continue to roster him, prepare for a one and a half million dollar salary per year.

Los Angeles Chargers

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Mike Williams27UFA$15,680,000$18,000,000
Jared Cook34UFA$4,500,000$5,000,000
Jalen Guyton24RFA$540,000$4,000,000

Mike Williams is one of the biggest free agents this off-season. He has been perennially undervalued, and it is mainly because of his injury history. Here at Dynasty Owner, an almost 16 million dollar salary is not great value when it comes to a WR2 and an inconsistent one at that. I like Williams to return to the Chargers in 2022 as it won’t cost much more to sign him. I think his going rate will be around 18 million dollars per year.

Jared Cook is a player who I feel like I talk about every off-season. He is likely to find another new home in 2022. While retirement may be a long shot this close to free agency, I think it’s still possible. He is 34 years old, but has shown the ability to be an above average tight end.

Jalen Guyton is a restricted free agent. All that means for our purposes is that he has less freedom when it comes to his free agency decisions. Guyton will be signed to a new contract, and I think it should be along the lines of 4 million dollars. However, it will likely be less as he has little leverage. 

Las Vegas Raiders

Well, this is a first. The Raiders have zero notable free agents this off-season. I won’t break down any players in full for this article, but here are a few players who may be worth keeping your eye on. However, none of these players are rostered in more than 50% of Dynasty Owner leagues.

  • Marcus Mariota
  • Jalen Richard
  • Zay Jones
  • DeSean Jackson
  • Payton Barber

Denver Broncos

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Melvin Gordon28UFA$8,000,000$6,000,000
Teddy Bridgewater29UFA$11,499,000$10,000,000

We have two hot free agents in Melvin Gordon and Teddy Bridgewater. I truly believe that Gordon has a lot left in his career and that he would be much better served in another offense.  It’s not that I don’t like Gordon. Quite the opposite. I think he could join at least five teams and become the starter on Day One. Instead, the issue is Javonte Williams. Williams, at this point in their careers, is a more explosive and better running back than Gordon. I think the Broncos have realized that, and I’m pretty sure Dynasty Owners have too. The hard truth is that it is logical for the Broncos to bring Gordon back in order to keep wear and tear off of Javonte. They were both very efficient in 2021, and there is no reason they can’t be in 2022 as well. This would obviously take fantasy production away from both players, but it would be the right “real football move” in my opinion. In the end, Gordon will command roughly $6,000,000 per year.

Teddy B is the final player I want to talk about today. He was the starter for the Broncos for the majority of the season, but I’m nearly positive that he isn’t the long term solution to their quarterback problems. That being said, he is an above average backup quarterback in the NFL, and he will be signed to a team at some point in this off-season. Expect him to receive something around 10 million dollars per year.

If there is any player that you want me to spend more time talking about, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube.  Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Free Agent Friday: NFC North

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

The pinnacle of football greatness has come and gone. I hope everyone enjoyed their Super Bowl Sunday last weekend. I know I sure did, but with one end comes a new beginning. The official end of a football season brings a renewed focus on what we are really here for…

“Value Dynasty Football”

Most of you have been active over the past month in between the end of the Dynasty Owner season and the NFL playoffs, but some haven’t, and this break is a great time to focus and start thinking of making a run for next year’s title. With that idea in mind, let’s talk about some important free agents you will need to have on your radar this off-season. Today we are talking about the NFC North.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Davante Adams29UFA$14,500,000$27,000,000
Robert Tonyan Jr.27UFA$3,384,000$8,000,000
Allen Lazard26RFA$675,000$6,000,000
Marquez Valdes-Scantling27UFA$669,388$6,000,000

The top name to talk about for the Packers is obviously Davante Adams. While he should be the highest-paid wide receiver in football, I’m not convinced he will be. I think that the final number will be close to $27,000,000 which would put him as the second-highest-paid wide receiver (behind DeAndre Hopkins at $27.25 million annually). It’s hard to imagine Adams playing for another team, but I don’t think it’s totally off the table. A lot of Adams’ decision will come down to what Aaron Rodgers decides to do. In the end, I think both Rodgers and Adams return to Green Bay.

Robert Tonyan is another name that I will be keeping an eye on this off-season. He has quickly become a big name over the past two years. An abrupt end to his 2021 season will for sure leave a salty taste in his Dynasty Owners’ mouths. Not only that but missing over half of the season has to weigh heavily on whoever will be paying for his next contract. His current contract was a RFA tender worth $3,384,000, but as we know that will be expiring soon. I expect Tonyan to remain with the Packers, and I’d say he has earned himself a contract close to $8,000,000 per year.

Finally, we have two wide receivers. Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS) are both up for a new contract. I think both players have been quite beneficial to the offense over the past few years, and they have both played above average. Because of that I say that they will both get new contracts around $6,000,000 per year. However, I don’t think they will both return to the Packers for the 2022 season. My best guess at this moment is that Lazard returns and MVS doesn’t. I also think that Green Bay will finally try to make a move for a true number two wide receiver. This player could be acquired via the draft or by free agency, but either way I’ll say that MVS is the player that gets squeezed out. Of course, this could all change if Rodgers or Adams don’t return.

Minnesota Vikings

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Wayne Gallman27UFA$990,000$1,500,000
Tyler Conklin26UFA$685,258$8,500,000

Two notable offensive free agents for the Vikings are Wayne Gallman and Tyler Conklin. Gallman was included in this section solely because he is on a cheap contract and is rostered in over 50% of Dynasty Owner leagues. I see Gallman moving on from the Vikings and finding a new team to be the backup running back for. His salary shouldn’t exceed more than 1.5 million dollars so feel free to continue rostering him for the moment.

Tyler Conklin is a little more of an interesting free agent. He is only 26 years old and has shown periods of explosiveness in his short career so far. I admit that he had a rather disappointing 2021 season as he finished as TE16. I expected him to finish inside the Top 10. Even with a somewhat disappointing finish, he will earn middle-tier tight end money ($8,000,000). Expect Conklin’s contract to increase by more than 10x.

Chicago Bears

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Allen Robinson28UFA$17,880,000$16,000,000
Andy Dalton34UFA$10,000,000$10,000,000

Both of these players are kind of sensitive subjects to approach. Allen Robinson had an abysmal season. If you remember going into the 2021 season, Robinson was touted as an ultra-safe player to draft. He was talked about as being the unsexy pick, but one that would almost certainly get you 1,000 receiving yards and 100 receptions. His upside was limited, but with that floor most people didn’t care. In the end, I don’t think I could have scripted a worse finish for Robinson. He finished as the WR90, and he never passed 11.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in any game last season. Changing quarterbacks, injuries and poor play are all to blame for his trainwreck of a season. Robinson is still rostered in over 87 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues which is still probably the correct move, but it has to be hard to stomach if you have him. Expect a slight pay cut for Robinson in 2022. I’m anticipating something like $32,000,000 for 2 years. I don’t see this contract being with the Bears though.

Andy Dalton is a tough case. He is, in my opinion, one of the most capable backup quarterbacks in the NFL. He is an average quarterback and that is really all you can ask for in a backup. He played in eight games in 2021, and he was largely a non-factor for Dynasty Owner scoring. I expect he will receive a very similar contract to the previous year. One year for 10 million dollars is a very fair price for him.

Detroit Lions

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Josh Reynolds27UFA$1,750,000$5,000,000
Kalif Raymond27UFA$1,127,500$4,000,000

A couple of Lions make the free agent list in this early off-season. First is Josh Reynolds. Reynolds’ first year with the Lions was inefficient yet still a decent value. Anytime a wide receiver makes less than 2 million dollars, they are bound to be a value with even a moderate fantasy total. Despite his lackluster 2021, he will likely make more than 4 million dollars per year in 2022.

Kalif Raymond has been a journeyman wide receiver for his entire career. He has changed teams six total times, and it’s likely to be a seventh time after this free agency process is finished. The undrafted free agent has made a good living for himself on low-tier contracts, but I think his next one will be the biggest yet. I expect a contract north of $3,000,000 per year up to $4,000,000.

If there is any player that you want me to spend more time talking about, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Free Agent Friday: AFC South

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

The AFC South will be the topic of my conversation with you all today.  The division was won by the Tennessee Titans, and they received the number one seed in the AFC.  That seeding didn’t help them much as they were quickly dispatched by the Cincinnati Bengals in the divisional round.  Speaking of the Titans, let’s get into one of their free agents and how they will affect some Dynasty Owners.

AFC South

Tennessee Titans

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Anthony Firkser26UFA$3,000,000$4,000,000

The only Titan worth talking about today is Anthony Firkser. Firkser had a lackluster fantasy season. He finished as the TE31, and had only 71.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to show for it. At 3 million dollars, he wasn’t the worst tight end value in football, but he was hardly worth starting either. Consider Firkser a shaky hold at the moment. I estimate his value at $4,000,000.

Indianapolis Colts

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
T.Y. Hilton32UFA$8,000,000$6,000,000
Mo Alie-Cox28UFA$3,384,000$5,000,000
Zach Pascal27UFA$3,384,000$7,000,000
Marlon Mack25UFA$2,000,000$2,000,000

T.Y. Hilton comes in as the first Colts’ free agent we are going to talk about. Hilton was not worth rostering in 2021, and I hesitated if I should even talk about him today. I decided to include him as he is still a big name receiver, and I think he could be fantasy relevant in 2022. I don’t see T.Y. making more than his last contract ($8,000,000). I think it’s likely he will be closer to the $6,000,000 mark (think A.J. Green type contract). I also believe he will move on from Indianapolis and look to continue his career with a team in need of a WR2.

Mo Alie-Cox received a second round tender in 2021. That made his contract $3,384,000 for a single year. Alie-Cox will make more than 3.3 million dollars in 2022, and I think he will return to the Colts. We have yet to see the full offensive potential from the 6’5” tight end, but we did see a flash of it when he had a two touchdown game worth 19.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 4. I would be holding onto Mo Alie-Cox even for $5,000,000 per year.

Zach Pascal is a wide receiver that is not often talked about and was relatively forgotten about for fantasy last season. He scored less than 100 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (93.9) and finished as WR80. There’s really not much to talk about with Pascal. He will probably make over $6,000,000 in 2022, and I will not be the Dynasty Owner holding him at that salary.

Marlon Mack was once a very interesting free agent. I am actually still a little interested, but that’s from a football fan standpoint and not an investor. Mack was buried on the depth chart at the end of the 2021 season, and I have to think that there is more for him than this. He is only 25 years old and only two years removed from a 1,000 yard rushing season. My hope is that Mack moves on from Indianapolis and becomes a solid second running back for a team in need of one. Expect Mack to be right at his previous contract of $2,000,000 per year.

Houston Texans

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Tyrod Taylor32UFA$5,500,000$5,000,000
David Johnson30UFA$5,000,000$2,000,000
Royce Freeman25UFA$985,005$1,500,000
Jordan Akins29UFA$831,271$4,000,000

Tyrod Taylor starts it off for us with Houston. Tyrod is probably looked at as a backup quarterback at this point in his career. I hate to say that because I’ve always liked watching Taylor, but it seems very unlikely he would be given a starting job. The going rate for a backup quarterback like him is around $5,000,000. I, personally, have no interest in holding him for that much money.

David Johnson saw the least amount of carries in his career in 2021 (excluding 2017 when he suffered a season ending injury in Week 1). This is obviously not the direction we would like to see his career go, but it’s also not unexpected from an aging running back. Johnson is now over 30 years old, and his time with Houston has not gone well for anyone involved. I think Johnson finds a new team. He will be looking at the type of contract that an over 30 year old, backup running back usually gets. That would be around $2,000,000 for 1 year.

Royce Freeman had only 34.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021. The only thing that made him rosterable over the past few seasons is the fact that his contract was less than $1,000,000 per year.  His salary should increase slightly as he finds a new team, but I’ve seen enough from him in his career to believe that he will not be taking over as a RB1 anytime soon.

Jacksonville Jaguars

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
D.J. Chark25UFA$1,111,807$11,000,000

Just one Jaguar to talk about today. That player is D.J. Chark. Over the past two seasons, Chark was one of the players that I consistently targeted in all my mock and start-up drafts for Dynasty Owner. The reason is that he was still on his rookie contract and seemed to be perennially undervalued. Sadly, I targeted him in 2021 start-up drafts as well. Chark broke his ankle in Week 4 against the Bengals and was placed on season ending Injured Reserve soon after. Obviously an injury like this does not improve his contract potential, but I still think he will get a mid-level contract because of his production in prior years. I expect him to make somewhere between 10 and 12 million dollars per year. What I haven’t decided on is if he will be back in Jacksonville with that contract.

My gut tells me that he will be back. We know that Laviska Shenault Jr. is the up and coming wide receiver with the aging Marvin Jones as the WR2 on the team. I don’t think this alone will be enough offensive power to make many games competitive in 2022. I also think it’s unlikely Jacksonville drafts a wide receiver that can immediately make an impact in the NFL. I have Chark returning to the Jaguars with a contract of $11,000,000 per year.

That wraps up my article for today. If there is any player who you want me to spend more time talking about, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube.  Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Free Agent Friday: AFC North

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

The matchup is known, and the stage has been set. Super Bowl LVI will take place between the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals. From a season-long standpoint, this is a little bit of a shock. The Rams may have been on my short list of NFC teams that I thought could make the Super Bowl, but I had zero expectations that the Bengals could or would make it. If you look at the 2021 preseason odds for teams to win the Super Bowl, you will see that the Rams were at 12-1 odds. Not terrible. That put them as the fourth most likely team to win it all. They were behind the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Bills. The Bengals were a much different story though. They were 150-1 odds to win the Super Bowl which put them as the third least likely team to win it all. Obviously as the season progressed, it looked more and more likely that the Bengals could compete for a title. It’s still fun to look back and dream about making a bet with the full hindsight of today.

At any rate, let’s talk about some more free agents.  Today is the AFC North’s turn.

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals

Given the fact that the Bengals are in the upcoming Super Bowl, I thought it would be appropriate to talk about their one and only notable free agent today.

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
C.J. Uzomah29UFA$6,100,000$8,000,000

Uzomah is 29 years old. He is being talked about today not because I believe he will be a dominant fantasy player or value next year. Instead, I am talking about him because he is rostered in 52 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues. This is honestly a little higher than I would have expected from a six million dollar tight end that finished as TE19 in 2021. As is the case with a lot of NFL players, Uzomah is a better real life football player than a fantasy player. I expect his roster percentage to decrease rapidly after he signs a contract worth over 7 million dollars.

Pittsburgh Steelers

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
JuJu Smith-Schuster25UFA$8,000,000$12,000,000
James Washington25UFA$1,125,336$7,000,000

A couple of 25 year old wide receivers make the list for Pittsburgh. It’s hard to believe, but James Washington is actually a few months older than JuJu Smith-Schuster. This is a testament to how young Smith-Schuster was when he entered the league and how short of a time it took him to become a household name. He is an unrestricted free agent in 2022 and will bring a value of around 12 million dollars per year. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if that salary creeps up to around 15 million dollars.

James Washington is a player that I think is likely to find a new home this year. With a cap and quarterback uncertainty, paying over 6 million dollars for a third wide receiver is not likely what the Steelers want to do. I think the Bears, Chiefs or Saints would be a fine landing spot for Washington.

I also just wanted to mention Dwayne Haskins. As scary as it may sound, Haskins is the odds-on favorite to start for the Steelers in 2022 at this exact moment. I don’t think he will be the starter on Opening Day, but they have no one else (other than Mason Rudolph). I think it’s likely the Steelers explore quarterback options through free agency or maybe even the draft, but there is no guarantee that the player they select will be ready to start Week 1. Haskins isn’t officially on my free agent list, but I wanted to mention him here, so people have his name in the back of their mind when he does sign a new contract.

Baltimore Ravens

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Latavius Murray32UFA$1,075,000$3,000,000
Devonta Freeman29UFA$1,075,000$2,000,000

Two aging running backs make the list of notable free agents today. Latavius Murray is likely getting close to the end of his career. I don’t think last season was his final one, but I don’t see a chance that he gets more than a single year offer. Think about something like 3 million dollars for a single year if you own Murray.

Devonta Freeman is kind of in the same situation as Murray although he is three years younger.  The 29 year old running back found new life in his career with Baltimore last season.  He wasn’t the most efficient or highest scoring running back in Dynasty Owner, but he was still a value given his salary. Freeman made a little more than 1 million dollars, but he was able to amass almost 150.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (149.6). Believe it or not this finish was good enough to put him in the Top 20 for Dynasty Dollars per Fantasy Point (DD/FP).  I wouldn’t expect a similar finish for 2022 especially since his new team is very much up in the air.

Cleveland Browns

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
David Njoku25UFA$6,013,000$6,000,000
D’Ernest Johnson25RFA$585,000$2,500,000

The Browns surprised me with only two notable free agents this year. Neither of them are big names, but I think both have a chance to make a decent impact on their (possibly) new teams.

David Njoku has had a relatively disappointing career, at least from a fantasy standpoint. He was selected in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft. In his five NFL seasons, he has less than 1,800 receiving yards and has averaged only three touchdowns per year. I know that tight ends (including Njoku) do much, much more than just offensive production, but his stats have still been lackluster. I look for Njoku to move on from the Browns while also getting a similar contract to what he had last season.

D’Ernest Johnson made a big splash in 2021 in games without Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt. We know that his aforementioned teammate, Nick Chubb, has already signed a multi-year contract worth over 12 million dollars per year. I’m torn on what I think the Browns should or will do with Johnson. My heart tells me that they should bring him back, but my brain tells me that it’s probably not likely. There are very few third string running backs in the NFL who make over 2 million dollars, and this is exactly what D’Ernest is likely to make in 2022. Even if the Browns wanted to use a tender on him, it would be worth over 2 million dollars. I think he will command that type of contract, but I don’t think it’ll be in Cleveland.

If there is any player that you want me to spend more time talking about, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube.  Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Dynasty Owner League Winners

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello all. Welcome to the off-season. Whatever part of the NFL season you find the most exciting, there is no doubt that the start of the off-season ranks up there for Dynasty Owners. As I mentioned in the last article, this is a fresh start. This is a time for hope as most of us will be drafting new rookies onto our teams. But before we look forward to 2022, today I am going to put a final recap on the 2021 season. I will be bringing you a player from each position who was outstanding in the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15 – 17). The players I’m about to mention are not the only players that excelled, but they are some of the standouts that I think are worth mentioning.

If you recall back to late November and early December, I penned two articles about who I predicted would be “League Winners”. Due to bad luck and a few poor picks, there weren’t many players on those lists who actually were league winners, but I think my process was sound. Let’s talk about it…

Quarterbacks

For the quarterback position I chose Aaron Rodgers and Jalen Hurts. Both ended up being fairly respectable picks. Both players averaged over 20 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game from Week 15 through Week 17 (Rodgers actually averaged 29.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game). Even with these solid performances, Joe Burrow is the man I have to talk about.

What Burrow did in Weeks 16 and 17 was literally record breaking. He was only 8 yards shy of 1,000 yards in those two games. On top of that, he posted 8 touchdowns. He averaged 53.3 fantasy points, and he was far and away the most impressive quarterback in the semifinal and final. On a personal note, Burrow single handedly beat me in one of my Dynasty Owner leagues. That is to say that he and Ja’Marr Chase single handedly beat me. My opponent had the Burrow/Chase stack, and it made for a quick loss on my end.

I’m saying this without even mentioning salary. His $9,047,534 puts him as one of the cheaper quarterbacks in Dynasty Owner as well. Truly amazing stuff from the QB6 on the season as a whole.

Running Backs

I was really rooting for both of the running backs that I picked as league winners. Unfortunately, it wasn’t meant to be for either of them. Javonte Williams and James Robinson both had favorable matchups coming into the home stretch. Williams actually saw a decent amount of volume, at least about as much as I predicted he would, but he was unable to be productive with it. Against the Bengals, Raiders and Chargers he averaged only 3.2 yards per carry with a single touchdown. This is far from the impressive prediction I had for him…

Week 15-17 ProjectionsTotal YardsReceptionsTDsDOFP
Javonte Williams, DEN2519246.1

Overall, Williams impressed me quite a bit this season. Let’s hope the relatively disappointing end to his season does not dissuade Dynasty Owners from obtaining him next year especially with the uncertainty involving Melvin Gordon.

The second running back has a much more unpleasant end to his season. James Robinson had a fantastic game in Week 15 against Houston. That matchup allowed him to produce 17.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points on 21 touches. Unfortunately, early in Week 16, Robinson suffered a partial tear to his left Achilles tendon. This obviously ended his season, but more disappointing is what this may mean for his career path. Hopefully he earns himself another chance (likely on a new team), but we have all seen how difficult it is to come back 100 percent from this type of injury.

The running back who impressed me the most these playoffs was Rashaad Penny. It was very refreshing to witness this mini-breakout from Penny given the draft capital invested in him and the hype he had around him entering the league. You love to see this even though it took so long to happen. Penny was not only solid throughout the playoffs, but he got better as you got closer to the final. He posted 6.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 15 (Rams), 21.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 16 (Bears) and 34.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 17 (Lions). He showed true workhorse ability in Week 17 as he had 27 touches for 185 yards and two touchdowns.

Penny’s future is still uncertain as his rookie contract will be expiring and the Seahawks declined to pick up a fifth year option.

Wide Receiver

The wide receiver that I’m picking as my Dynasty Owner League Winner is Deebo Samuel. Yes, I know that there are two WRs who statistically performed better than Deebo in the final three weeks (Ja’Marr Chase and Davante Adams), but I don’t care. Samuel has been one of the most consistent and surprising breakouts this season, and I want to talk about him some more.

Deebo has been rock solid consistent throughout the entire 2021 season. He never fell below 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in any game that he played in. In fact, he had seven games of 20.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points including three games with over 30.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Well, he didn’t disappoint in the playoffs. He averaged a cool 20.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game with (once again) a lot of rushing work. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, “there was no player I enjoyed watching this season more than Deebo Samuel.” This statement is true even considering the fact that I didn’t own him in either of my Dynasty Owner leagues. I look forward to watching his 2022 season as he will be on a contract year. Enjoy his final cheap year ($1,811,869).

Tight End

My two picks for tight end league winners seemed like solid picks when I wrote them. The two players were Noah Fant and Logan Thomas. As most of you know, Thomas went on season ending IR shortly after my tight end article was released. That was an unfortunate blow to him as he looked primed to make a playoff impact.

My second pick, Noah Fant, actually finished very close to my prediction…

Week 15-17 ProjectionsTotal YardsReceptionsTDsDOFP
Noah Fant, DEN17615244.6
Week 15-17 ActualTotal YardsReceptionsTDsDOFP
Noah Fant, DEN17914137.9

Fant was inconsistent over the final three games as he had 10.7, 6.0, and 21.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Hopefully you started him if you made it to the Dynasty Owner final, as 21.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points was the best TE performance for the week and well above average for a tight end. However, there were a few other tight ends that performed better.

Yes, Mark Andrews ranks on the very top of the list for fantasy points from Week 15-17, but I want to talk about another player today. His name is Dalton Schultz.

Schultz, quietly, had a sensational end to his season. He finished with 20.7, 22.2 and 11.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He has likely earned himself a top tight end salary for next season. This new contract will likely be hard for Dynasty Owners to stomach especially since he is a tight end. Regardless, celebrate his performance now and worry about his contract in the near future.

Thank you for reading. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Value Of The Year Winners: 2021 Season

Hello Owners and thank you for reading. Today, I will be presenting my final article of the 2021 Dynasty Owner season. After this week, all the Dynasty Owner champions will be crowned. A Chase for the Ring winner will also be named. This is obviously a very exciting time for us here at Dynasty Owner. In addition to people winning their leagues, this is also a time to start fresh. After this week’s games, everyone will be equals again. Everyone will enter the off-season with just as much opportunity as the next Dynasty Owner. As I said, this is a very exciting time of the year for everyone.

The final article of the year will be where I give out the Value of the Year awards. I will present an award for each position as well as an overall winner. I have a lot to talk about so let’s do it.

Value Of The Year Winners

Quarterback

There were actually quite a few nominees for this award. There were six in total. They were:

  • Jalen Hurts
  • Lamar Jackson
  • Taylor Heinicke
  • Josh Allen
  • Mac Jones
  • Justin Herbert

While all six of these quarterbacks have played quite well over the 2021 season, only two had a realistic chance of winning. Hurts and Jackson have the lowest salaries, and they are lower by quite a bit when compared to the other nominees (except Heinicke). In the end, Jalen Hurts just had too good of a season combined with a very cheap salary for him not to win. He is the Quarterback Value of the Year for 2021.

Here is what I wrote about Hurts two weeks ago…

“So, we have a Top 10 quarterback with a Top 10 salary combined with the best DD/FP of any quarterback. Does it get better than that? Apart from Week 12, Hurts has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks in all of fantasy.”

Excluding Week 17, Hurts is the QB10 in terms of total Dynasty Owner fantasy points (344.0) and he is the QB1 in terms of Dynasty Dollars per Fantasy Point (DD/FP) at $4,379.  Congratulations to everyone who has Hurts on their Dynasty Owner roster as there was no better value at quarterback this year.

Running Back

The running back position had only three nominees. They were:

  • Myles Gaskin
  • James Robinson
  • Jonathan Taylor

I will mention that Damien Harris put on a strong run towards the end of the season (especially Week 16). However, the trophy belongs to Myles Gaskin. As I mentioned two articles ago…

“I’m usually writing about players who overperformed their projected value because of exceptional fantasy output. Gaskin seems to be the opposite of that idea. Gaskin has led the running back values virtually all season despite only being RB19 on the season in terms of fantasy points. He has had a roller coaster type season which has left several Dynasty Owners disappointed in his overall touches (especially receptions).”

It’s hard to believe a player that is viewed as a disappointment can win, but that’s exactly what can happen when you have a salary of $651,694. I would have loved to name Jonathan Taylor as the winner, but the reality is that he would have had to outperform Gaskin three-fold in order to win. That didn’t happen and Gaskin took home the hardware with 163.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and a salary of $651,694. Gaskin finished the season as RB23 in terms of fantasy points, and RB1 in terms of DD/FP.

Wide Receivers

The wide receiver position was a close one especially over the second half of the season. While there were really only two players in actual contention, here is the full list of nominees…

  • Hunter Renfrow
  • Diontae Johnson
  • Deebo Samuel

I included Deebo mainly as a formality. He had virtually no chance to win even with a 26.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance in Week 16. The two person race came down to Renfrow and Johnson.  Here is a breakdown of their seasons as a whole…

PlayerSalaryReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFPDOFP per Game
Hunter Renfrow$708,987929496221.914.8
Diontae Johnson$1,070,241921,0797246.217.6

The winner this year is Renfrow. His salary is roughly two-thirds of Johnson’s, and his production was largely the same. This award is especially important because of the draft capital and/or trade value that you had to give up when acquiring Renfrow was minimal. He was being drafted in roughly the 15th round. What an amazing season from Renfrow, and it’s one that he will attempt to recreate (or improve on) in 2022. Renfrow finished as the WR13 for total Dynasty Owner fantasy points (221.9) and WR1 for DD/FP ($3,195).

Tight End

The tight end nominees were:

  • Mark Andrews
  • Dalton Schultz
  • Dawson Knox

As I mentioned last week, all three are having career years, but one of them was just too dominant to ignore. That player is Mark Andrews ($863,290). When this regular season concludes, Andrews will have over 100 receptions, over 1,200 receiving yards, and at least 10 touchdowns. This is a truly remarkable feat for a player who was perennially considered a low volume tight end. Andrews has earned himself the 4-year, $56 million contract ($14 million per year) that he signed back in September. Congratulations to those of you who owned Andrews this year. I have a feeling it will be a long time before we encounter a tight end value like this again

Andrews finished the season as the TE1 for total Dynasty Owner fantasy points (271.7) and also the TE1 for DD/FP ($3,177). Let me put it this way, if Andrews was labeled as a wide receiver, he would be the WR6 on the season. Not only that, but he would be the WR1 in terms of DD/FP. I hate to belabor the point too much, but I think it’s worth stating again:

“I have a feeling it will be a long time before we encounter a tight end value like this again.”

Value of the Year

And now we come to the final award. This player was the ultimate value for the 2021 Dynasty Owner season. This player not only dominated every player at his position, but he also dominated every player in value. The player is the aforementioned Mark Andrews.

When we have a player that is number one in points and value, that is an automatic lock for Value of the Year. Last year, no player double dipped like this. In fact, the only player who was close was Andrews. He lost to Dalton Schultz by about $200 in the DD/FP category and was TE6 in terms of overall Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

Enjoy the win Dynasty Owners as Andrews value period ends after this season when his new $14 million per year contract kicks in.

Well folks, that is all I have for you. It has been a pleasure to present my content to you over this season. I know you’ll be seeing a lot of me this off-season as well as next year. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello Owners and thank you for reading. Today, I will be presenting my final article of the 2021 Dynasty Owner season. After this week, all the Dynasty Owner champions will be crowned. A Chase for the Ring winner will also be named. This is obviously a very exciting time for us here at Dynasty Owner. In addition to people winning their leagues, this is also a time to start fresh. After this week’s games, everyone will be equals again. Everyone will enter the off-season with just as much opportunity as the next Dynasty Owner. As I said, this is a very exciting time of the year for everyone.

The final article of the year will be where I give out the Value of the Year awards. I will present an award for each position as well as an overall winner. I have a lot to talk about so let’s do it.

Value Of The Year Winners

Quarterback

There were actually quite a few nominees for this award. There were six in total. They were:

  • Jalen Hurts
  • Lamar Jackson
  • Taylor Heinicke
  • Josh Allen
  • Mac Jones
  • Justin Herbert

While all six of these quarterbacks have played quite well over the 2021 season, only two had a realistic chance of winning. Hurts and Jackson have the lowest salaries, and they are lower by quite a bit when compared to the other nominees (except Heinicke). In the end, Jalen Hurts just had too good of a season combined with a very cheap salary for him not to win. He is the Quarterback Value of the Year for 2021.

Here is what I wrote about Hurts two weeks ago…

“So, we have a Top 10 quarterback with a Top 10 salary combined with the best DD/FP of any quarterback. Does it get better than that? Apart from Week 12, Hurts has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks in all of fantasy.”

Excluding Week 17, Hurts is the QB10 in terms of total Dynasty Owner fantasy points (344.0) and he is the QB1 in terms of Dynasty Dollars per Fantasy Point (DD/FP) at $4,379.  Congratulations to everyone who has Hurts on their Dynasty Owner roster as there was no better value at quarterback this year.

Running Back

The running back position had only three nominees. They were:

  • Myles Gaskin
  • James Robinson
  • Jonathan Taylor

I will mention that Damien Harris put on a strong run towards the end of the season (especially Week 16). However, the trophy belongs to Myles Gaskin. As I mentioned two articles ago…

“I’m usually writing about players who overperformed their projected value because of exceptional fantasy output. Gaskin seems to be the opposite of that idea. Gaskin has led the running back values virtually all season despite only being RB19 on the season in terms of fantasy points. He has had a roller coaster type season which has left several Dynasty Owners disappointed in his overall touches (especially receptions).”

It’s hard to believe a player that is viewed as a disappointment can win, but that’s exactly what can happen when you have a salary of $651,694. I would have loved to name Jonathan Taylor as the winner, but the reality is that he would have had to outperform Gaskin three-fold in order to win. That didn’t happen and Gaskin took home the hardware with 163.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and a salary of $651,694. Gaskin finished the season as RB23 in terms of fantasy points, and RB1 in terms of DD/FP.

Wide Receivers

The wide receiver position was a close one especially over the second half of the season. While there were really only two players in actual contention, here is the full list of nominees…

  • Hunter Renfrow
  • Diontae Johnson
  • Deebo Samuel

I included Deebo mainly as a formality. He had virtually no chance to win even with a 26.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance in Week 16. The two person race came down to Renfrow and Johnson.  Here is a breakdown of their seasons as a whole…

PlayerSalaryReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFPDOFP per Game
Hunter Renfrow$708,987929496221.914.8
Diontae Johnson$1,070,241921,0797246.217.6

The winner this year is Renfrow. His salary is roughly two-thirds of Johnson’s, and his production was largely the same. This award is especially important because of the draft capital and/or trade value that you had to give up when acquiring Renfrow was minimal. He was being drafted in roughly the 15th round. What an amazing season from Renfrow, and it’s one that he will attempt to recreate (or improve on) in 2022. Renfrow finished as the WR13 for total Dynasty Owner fantasy points (221.9) and WR1 for DD/FP ($3,195).

Tight End

The tight end nominees were:

  • Mark Andrews
  • Dalton Schultz
  • Dawson Knox

As I mentioned last week, all three are having career years, but one of them was just too dominant to ignore. That player is Mark Andrews ($863,290). When this regular season concludes, Andrews will have over 100 receptions, over 1,200 receiving yards, and at least 10 touchdowns. This is a truly remarkable feat for a player who was perennially considered a low volume tight end. Andrews has earned himself the 4-year, $56 million contract ($14 million per year) that he signed back in September. Congratulations to those of you who owned Andrews this year. I have a feeling it will be a long time before we encounter a tight end value like this again

Andrews finished the season as the TE1 for total Dynasty Owner fantasy points (271.7) and also the TE1 for DD/FP ($3,177). Let me put it this way, if Andrews was labeled as a wide receiver, he would be the WR6 on the season. Not only that, but he would be the WR1 in terms of DD/FP. I hate to belabor the point too much, but I think it’s worth stating again:

“I have a feeling it will be a long time before we encounter a tight end value like this again.”

Value of the Year

And now we come to the final award. This player was the ultimate value for the 2021 Dynasty Owner season. This player not only dominated every player at his position, but he also dominated every player in value. The player is the aforementioned Mark Andrews.

When we have a player that is number one in points and value, that is an automatic lock for Value of the Year. Last year, no player double dipped like this. In fact, the only player who was close was Andrews. He lost to Dalton Schultz by about $200 in the DD/FP category and was TE6 in terms of overall Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

Enjoy the win Dynasty Owners as Andrews value period ends after this season when his new $14 million per year contract kicks in.

Well folks, that is all I have for you. It has been a pleasure to present my content to you over this season. I know you’ll be seeing a lot of me this off-season as well as next year. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Value Of The Year Nominees: WRs & TEs

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

The first round of the Dynasty Owner playoffs are almost officially over. So far, Week 15 has been disappointing on many levels, but despite that overall disappointment, there will be 33 percent of you remaining in the hunt for a championship after it is over. That’s right, our 12-team leagues will have shrunk down to four remaining by after the Tuesday games. This also may have been the best week imaginable to have a first round bye. Between COVID, injuries and just overall poor performances, it would have been a nice week to have zero stress.

For those of you who survive, today we are going to talk about some pass catchers that a lot of you probably have on your Dynasty Owner roster. The players I’m about to list are the most “valuable” of the 2021 season. Here is what I wrote in last week’s article when I talked about some quarterback and running back Value of the Year (VOTY) nominees.

Throughout the Thursday Night Article series, I have presented a Value of the Game prediction. Today and next week, I will present three to five nominees for a Value of the Year (VOTY) at each position. This will lead me into the Week 17 article where I will crown a Value of the Year winner for each position as well as an overall Value of the Year.

In order to be eligible for the VOTY, each player will have to be around the Top 20 or better for their position. In addition, they will have to be in the Top 10 in terms of value (DD/FP). Okay, let’s do it…

Wide Receivers

The first thing I want to mention about the wide receiver list is that it leaves off quite a few players who I thought would have been guaranteed to make it. Those players include DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown and Terry McLaurin. All three of these great talents would have made this article last year, but unfortunately, they have not been productive enough on the season to qualify. It goes without saying, but it has been a disappointing season for each of them.

Hunter Renfrow

Renfrow has been a very pleasant and unexpected surprise this year. Last year he finished as WR57 with 136.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Believe it or not, this number of fantasy points combined with his cheap salary of $708,987 put him as a Top 10 wide receiver in terms of Dynasty Dollars per Fantasy Point (DD/FP).

Well, this season has been even more impressive for him. He has scored north of 200.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and still has the same salary as last season. This puts him as the number one wide receiver for DD/FP this season. That number is $3,396. The Dynasty Owners who roster him know that it goes without saying…he has been an extreme value this year and that should continue.

The one other thing I want to mention is the fact that Darren Waller is currently dealing with both a knee and a back injury. Renfrow has been a target machine in the games that Waller misses.

Diontae Johnson

Johnson has been a staple of efficiency since he entered the league. The reason for this is the fact that he was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2019 NFL Draft. This draft capital earned him a $1,070,241 salary. Excluding last week, 20 of his last 21 games played have ended with more than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He has been not only a model of efficiency but also a model of consistency. With three games left in the regular season, he looks to easily cruise past 100 receptions. He has already surpassed 1,000 receiving yards. Let me give you a real life trade that I pulled off involving Johnson…

Thirty-two days ago, I traded Michael Pittman and a 2022 2nd round pick for Diontae Johnson.  As I made the trade, I realized that I was probably overpaying, but I was okay with that. I was, and still am, in win now mode for this league. I shed a little over $1,000,000 worth of salary cap and acquired an upgrade at receiver. Yes, this move will look much worse over the off-season, but my goal is to win a championship now and worry about the consequences later.

To sum up my thoughts: Diontae is currently the third ranked wide receiver when it comes to DD/FP. He sits at $4,611 and is one of the front runners to win the Value of the Year award from the wide receiver category.

Deebo Samuel

There is literally no player I have enjoyed watching more this season than Deebo. I don’t own him in either of my Dynasty Owner leagues, but it’s not for a lack of trying. I have composed several trades for Deebo over the past few months with no luck stealing him. I was prepared to greatly overpay for him too.

Regardless, Deebo has been one of the greatest values this year.  That value applies to both salary and draft capital. His salary is a cool $1,811,869, and he was regularly being drafted in the 5th/6th round in start-up drafts (ADP 69.0).

The most exciting part of Deebo’s season lies in the fact that he has been effectively used as a gadget running back for the last month. He has 12 total touchdowns on the season (7 rushing, 5 receiving). Over the past four games, he has four touchdowns, and all of them have come on the ground. He is one of the most versatile players in the game, and has a WR5 ranking to show for it. Deebo will likely not win the wide receiver Value of the Year, but he deserves the mention.  Unfortunately, his salary is just a little too high to justify a crown.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews

I’m just gonna say it right now…Andrews is going to win the VOTY for the tight end class. There is virtually no chance he loses. The next closest player is Dalton Schultz, but it would take a historic and unprecedented end to the season for him to pass Andrews. Andrews is not only the greatest value this year. He also is currently the TE1 on the season. He was always the frontrunner for most efficient tight end in terms of salary, but now he’s also contending for the title of the greatest tight end in the NFL. Sorry to spoil the ending a week early, but it shouldn’t come as a surprise to you at this point.

Dalton Schultz

The aforementioned Schultz is having a career year himself. He has already surpassed his 2020 fantasy point finish, and he still has three weeks to go in the regular season. My assumption coming into the 2021 season was that Schultz would relinquish some of his target share back to Blake Jarwin. If you remember, Jarwin missed nearly the entire 2020 season due to injury. Well, even before Jarwin went on IR for the majority of this season, Schultz was the Cowboys’ TE1 in terms of fantasy production. He still sits as TE4 overall in what has been a real breakout season for the 25-year old pass catcher.

Dawson Knox

Speaking of career years, here is another tight end having exactly that. Knox is on pace for over 50 receptions, over 600 yards and 10 touchdowns. What else can you ask for from a tight end that makes less than $1,000,000 per year? My answer is…”nothing.” Knox has been better than I expected, and he is in a dog fight for the TE5 spot. He is currently competing against Kyle Pitts and Mike Gesicki.

I’ve said this many times this year, but I’ll say it again today. The tight end position is extremely scarce these days. It’s rare to find one that will clear 170.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, let alone do it with a sub $1,000,000 salary. Cherish these players. This type of value is not found often, and the benefactors of it will likely be competing for a championship over the next two weeks.

Thank you for reading everyone. Next week will be a great article to catch. I am going to have a lot of fun breaking down the five Value of the Year award winners as I recap the 2021 Dynasty Owner season. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk