Value Of The Year Nominees: QBs & RBs

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

This is it. The week that everyone has been waiting for has finally arrived. We are officially in the Dynasty Owner playoffs. The goal for almost everyone in fantasy football is to win their league championship. That seems like an obvious thing to say, but that championship cannot be won without first making the playoffs.

When I start each fantasy season, I give myself one goal and one goal only…make the playoffs. So often, people get caught up trying to win their championship from day one, but this season (like all others) is a marathon, not a sprint. Fantasy football should be taken one week at a time where each win is a championship in itself. So, I say it again…make the playoffs and then worry about the playoffs once you’re there. I’ve seen way too many teams win the championship after they barely snuck into the final playoff spot. Likewise, I’ve seen some of the best fantasy teams ever assembled get bounced in the first round of the playoffs.

Fantasy football (especially dynasty playoff football) is fluky. If you’ve made the playoffs, you have done better than half of the teams in Dynasty Owner. You should be proud of yourself, but now isn’t the time for awards. Now it’s time to win. Here is the single best piece of info I can give you when it comes to the playoffs…

“Don’t overthink it.”

I play fantasy with zero emotion. Don’t get caught up in the whole idea that you have to play the players that “got you” to the playoffs. That is a closed minded approach and one that should die out. You play the players that you think will get you the most fantasy points during that specific game, and that’s the only thing you should be thinking about. Don’t worry about being afraid of putting big names on the Bench. Again, I say play the players that you think will get the most points.

For example: I will most likely be sitting DK Metcalf in favor of Diontae Johnson for my FLEX spot in one of my Dynasty Owner leagues. This is probably an unthinkable thought at the beginning of the season, but it is a reality now.

Set your lineup, be confident in it, and realize that if you lose you we’re just outplayed. There is no need for panic and anxiety. Let it play out, and be that much happier when/if you are the victor.

Value of the Year Nominees

Throughout the Thursday Night Article series, I have presented a Value of the Game prediction. Today and next week, I will present three to five nominees for a Value of the Year (VOTY) at each position. This will lead me into the Week 17 article where I will crown a Value of the Year winner for each position as well as an overall Value of the Year.

In order to be eligible for the VOTY, each player will have to be around the Top 20 or better for their position. In addition, they will have to be in the Top 10 in terms of value (DD/FP). Okay, let’s do it…

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts

Let’s start with my frontrunner for quarterback Value of the Year. Hurts is my odds-on favorite for a few simple reasons.

First, Hurts has the cheapest salary of any other quarterback on this list. A salary of $1,506,292 is cheap for any player in Dynasty Owner, let alone a quarterback. It’s also worth mentioning that, including this year, he has three years left on his rookie contract. If we were doing a long-term value awards list, Hurts would no doubt be near the top of that list also.

Second, Hurts is technically the most valuable quarterback by Dynasty Owner standings. He leads all quarterbacks in DD/FP with $5,144. This means that Hurts achieves 1 fantasy point for every $5,144 of his salary. This is fantastic value and one that no other quarterback this season has come close to.

Third, he is the QB10 at the time I’m writing this article. So, we have a Top 10 quarterback with a Top 10 salary combined with the best DD/FP of any quarterback. Does it get better than that?  Apart from Week 12, Hurts has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks in all of fantasy.

Lamar Jackson

Lamar currently ranks in a tie with Dak Prescott as the QB9 on the aging season. Not necessarily great, but also not as terrible as it sounds either. Much of the negative he experienced this year has come in the past four weeks. He missed a game in Week 11. He had a poor 9.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance against the Bears in Week 12. He put up a pedestrian 20.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy point against the Steelers, and then attempted only 4 passes in Week 14 before leaving with a sprained ankle.

All this being said, the first part of Lamar’s season cannot be forgotten. In all, he has 299.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy point. His salary of $2,367,912 made him almost a guarantee to appear on this list. But don’t expect to see him here next year. Dynasty Owners will have to find a way to swallow his increased salary.

Taylor Heinicke

Heinicke making this list may surprise some of you. His mediocre success combined with a very cheap quarterback salary makes him a fringe candidate for Value of the Year. Not really much more to talk about with him though. Barring a historic end to his 2021 season, there is a very small chance he’ll win the award.

Regardless, a $2,375,000 salaried quarterback that projects to score north of 300 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in a season has to be recognized.

Josh Allen

Josh Allen…What can I say about him that he hasn’t already showed you on the field? At this point in the season, there are only two quarterbacks that have scored more fantasy points that Allen. They are Tom Brady and Justin Herbert. I’ll get to Herbert in a bit. For now, remember back to what I said about Josh Allen in the preseason…

I talked about how Allen was going to be one of, if not, the most valuable player on Dynasty Owner for 2021.  It remains to be seen if Allen will be the ultimate quarterback value, but there is little doubt in my mind that he will win many Dynasty Owners their leagues. A QB3 who costs less than 6 million dollars a year is a one way to ticket to a championship. As is the case with Lamar though, beware of his contract increase in 2022.

Mac Jones

I don’t want to do a full breakdown on Mac Jones. Rather, I just wanted to mention him. He is the sixth most valuable quarterback that fits my specifications for this article. He will not win the Value of the Year, but I wanted to include him as an Honorable Mention.

He has 218.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy point with a salary of $3,896,588.

Justin Herbert

Herbert is also unlikely to win the Value of the Year award as his salary is just too high. A $6,644,688 contract for a quarterback is elite, but there is no way to make up the value to a player like Hurts or Jackson. Like Allen, Herbert will many people their Dynasty Owner league championships as he did last year in his rookie season. What I’m most excited for is the fact that we will get to see this type of production for two more seasons on a rookie salary.

Running Backs

Myles Gaskin

Myles Gaskin ladies and gentlemen…

He was one of my favorite values coming into the 2021 season, and he has delivered on value.  I’m usually writing about players who overperformed their projected value because of exceptional fantasy output.  Gaskin seems to be the opposite of that idea. Gaskin has led the running back values virtually all season despite only being RB19 on the season in terms of fantasy points. He has had a roller coaster type season which has left several Dynasty Owners disappointed in his overall touches (especially receptions).

I’m here to remind you of how good a value Gaskin is and will continue to be.  He has just about the cheapest possible salary for a starting running back in the NFL…$651,694.  Pair this with 158.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and you have a DD/FP of $4,125.

James Robinson

Robinson makes this list looking to repeat as the Value of the Year. What Robinson did in 2020 was not only unexpected, but it was also unprecedented. He set many single season records for a rookie undrafted free agent. He hasn’t had quite as much volume or efficiency when compared to last season, but with a salary of $763,333, there was room for regression and also continued value dominance.  Don’t let his last two abysmal weeks (1.5 & 0.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) distract you from the fact that he has a been an amazing value all season.

Jonathan Taylor

And now we come to the elephant in the room. How could I make an ultimate value list without including the most dominant running back in all of fantasy football? Jonathan Taylor has been absolutely unbelievable this season.

I know that hyperbole can run wild in fantasy analysis, but I don’t take this statement lightly. He is having one of the greatest fantasy running back seasons that I’ve ever witnessed, and I’m thankful that I’ve been able to see it.

But while I was writing this, I asked myself the opposite question of what I proposed to you above…

With his salary, how could I include him in the ultimate value list? Let me explain.

Taylor has (by far) the most expensive salary of any of the three running backs on this list. His salary is triple Gaskins’ and more than double Robinson’s.  This is where the subjective nature of my article is going to come into play. Yes, technically there is no other running back that come close to Gaskin or Robinson in terms of DD/FP.  However, I’m going to look bigger picture when deciding on a winner for VOTY.  I’ll explain that more when we get to the final article of the season. For now, this is where I leave you.

Thank you for reading. Next week I will present the contenders for wide receiver and tight end Value of the Year. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Dynasty Owner League Winners

WRs & TEs

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Welcome Dynasty Owners. The time has almost come. After all the off-season debate and work that has gone into building your team, we are one week away from the Dynasty Owner playoffs.  Whether you play in a Love Of The Game league or a $1,200 prize pool league, all of our 2021 journeys will be coming to an end soon. Given that this is the final week of the regular season for Dynasty Owner, I will conclude my regular season articles with the second part of my League Winners. Today, I will write about a couple of wide receivers and tight ends that should (at a minimum) give you an advantage over your opponent. At a maximum, they will help many of you win your leagues. In the first part of this series, I talked about quarterbacks and running backs. Go read that article if you missed it last week. For now, let’s see some pass catching league winners.

Wide Receiver League Winners

All of the statistics I’m using today are through Week 12 only. They will not include Week 13 as I had to write this article prior to the Sunday slate of games.

Deebo Samuel ($1,811,869)

Deebo has been one of the most successful wide receivers this year in both fantasy and real life football. He has over 1,200 total yards and 10 total touchdowns. Recently, his rushing utility has increased as he had seen 19 rushing attempts between Week 10 and Week 12.

However, his production will no doubt take a downturn up until at least the Dynasty Owner playoffs. He hurt his groin in Week 12 and did not play in Week 13. His situation is questionable going into Week 14, but I do not expect him to play. The good news is that with the timing of his injury, he should be back at relatively full health by Week 15. And boy does he have some solid matchups. Here is who he plays in the Dynasty Owner playoffs…

Week 15: Atlanta Falcons

Week 16: Tennessee Titans

Week 17: Houston Texans

At the time of this writing, Atlanta is allowing the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Not only that, but they are allowing the 7th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. This is great news either way for Deebo. In Week 16, he plays the Titans who are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers of any team. The Texans, in Championship Week, are also in the top half for wide receiver fantasy points allowed.

All this is a long winded way of saying that the WR2 on the season should win many people their leagues this year. Odds are that he brought many of you to the playoffs as well.

Week 15-17 ProjectionsTotal YardsReceptionsTDsDOFP
Deebo Samuel, SF36512472.5

Jaylen Waddle ($6,771,498)

Jaylen Waddle is about to have one of the quietest 100 reception and 1,000 yard seasons that I can remember. This is especially special considering the fact that he is a rookie. I think the majority of the silence comes because of Ja’Marr Chase’s success.

(Chase is going to cruise past 1,000 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. He will probably end up somewhere around 1,300 yards and 13 touchdowns.)

This should not take away from what Waddle has done though. He has over 15.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 7 of his 12 games. He has back to back games of at least eight receptions and one touchdown. Waddle is heating up at exactly the right time. Expect him to continue this fantasy success in the Dynasty Owner playoffs with these match-ups.

Week 15: New York Jets

Week 16: New Orleans Saints

Week 17: Tennessee Titans

All three of these are superb match-ups, and they should bring joy to Dynasty Owners that roster Waddle.

Week 15-17 ProjectionsTotal YardsReceptionsTDsDOFP
Jaylen Waddle, MIA28620369.6

These projections include an anticipated clutch scoring bonus for Waddle in one of these three games.

Tight End League Winners

As I started to write this section of the article, I realized that I was hesitant to use the phrase “League Winner” when it pertains to any tight end not named Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews. Therefore, I probably need to explain myself. When I say that a player like Noah Fant is going to be a league winner, I don’t literally mean that he will single handedly win Dynasty Owners their championship. Rather, I mean that he will give you a decided advantage over your opposition based on the match-ups. At the very least, he should be able to minimize the damage if you do play a Dynasty Owner with Kelce or Andrews. With that, let’s talk about Noah Fant.

Noah Fant ($3,147,680)

Fant has had a rocky season. There is no sugar coating it. The good news is that he has five games with over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. The bad news is that he also has five games of less than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Quarterback and team inconsistencies are what I place the majority of the blame on.

But…if Fant remains healthy over the rest of the regular season, he will reward Dynasty Owners who have been patient with him.  Here is his playoff schedule.

Week 15: Cincinnati Bengals

Week 16: Las Vegas Raiders

Week 17: Los Angeles Chargers

All three of these matchup rank in the top half of fantasy points given up to tight ends. The Raiders and Chargers give up the 2nd and 3rd most respectively. Denver should be able to keep all three of these games competitive, and their athletic, pass catching tight end should see an adequate amount of volume.

Week 15-17 ProjectionsTotal YardsReceptionsTDsDOFP
Noah Fant, DEN17615244.6

Logan Thomas ($3,072,500)

The final player I want to talk about today has had a disappointing season to say the least. He hasn’t disappointed because of his play. Rather, he has been injured for the majority of the season. Thomas missed seven games in the heart of the season. He returned in Week 12 with a modest 6.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. I expect his usage and production to continue to increase as we head into the playoffs.

Week 15: Philadelphia Eagles

Week 16: Dallas Cowboys

Week 17: Philadelphia Eagles

Strangely enough, the Football Team plays the Cowboys and the Eagles twice still. No one is allowing more fantasy points to tight ends than the Eagles on the season. I look for a floor of 8.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for Thomas in each of his final three games.

Week 15-17 ProjectionsTotal YardsReceptionsTDsDOFP
Logan Thomas, WAS15414241.4

** Please recall that this article was written on Sunday, prior to Thomas being injured in his game versus Las Vegas and subsequent placement on season ending Injured Reserve on Wednesday. **

As I said earlier in my article, I’m not declaring that any of these players will single handedly win you a championship. What I’m saying is that they will likely give you an advantage over your opponent at that position for the duration of the playoffs.

Thank you for reading. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Dynasty Owner League Winners: QBs & RBs

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello all and welcome to Dynasty Owner. I’m Matt TheJerk.

Today I will be starting a two part article series that discusses some of the players who will give you a massive advantage over your opponent in the Dynasty Owner playoffs. This article will be geared towards each player’s playoff schedule. The Dynasty Owner playoffs will consist of three weeks that run from Week 15 through Week 17. Remember there are 18 weeks this NFL season. In those three weeks, there are several players who have favorable opponents in some or all of those matchups. Today, I will be talking about those fortunate players. I will begin with the quarterbacks and running backs, and next week I will talk about the wide receivers and tight ends. Let’s do it…

Quarterback League Winners

All the league winners that I will be writing about are players that should dominate the Dynasty Owner playoffs. Not only are all of these players talented, but they have superb matchups from Week 15 through Week 17. These quarterbacks are no exception.

Aaron Rodgers ($33,500,000)

Aaron Rodgers currently ranks as QB6 in Dynasty Owner. He is averaging nearly 27.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game despite a horrendous Week 1 (0.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). Rodgers has five performances of over 30.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, and he looks poised to give his Dynasty Owners a championship run. Here are his final three opponents of the fantasy football season…

Week 15: Baltimore Ravens

Week 16: Cleveland Browns

Week 17: Minnesota Vikings

Neither of the first two matchups should scare you. Over the entire season, both the Ravens and Browns are in the Top 10 for fantasy points given up to quarterbacks. Both of these games should be competitive as well which should provide ample opportunity for Rodgers to succeed.  Finally comes Week 17. Championship Week. Rodgers and the Packers are going up against the Minnesota Vikings. If you remember back to Week 11, Rodgers put up 385 passing yards and four touchdowns as he posted 45.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Rodgers is going to be an absolute smash play all postseason, and I would feel very confident starting him with a Championship in mind. Here are my predictions for Rodgers between Weeks 15 and 17.

Weeks 15-17 ProjectionsPassing YardsINTsTDsDOFP
Aaron Rodgers, GB9021890.1

Jalen Hurts ($1,506,292)

If I had to rank all the quarterbacks I would want in this year’s postseason, it would look like this:

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Josh Allen
  3. Justin Herbert
  4. Aaron Rodgers
  5. Jalen Hurts

Hurts would be the fifth quarterback I would take from Week 15 through Week 17. Yes, he had a very poor Week 12, but that was against an improving Giants’ defense. His final three games look as juicy as any quarterback I have seen this season. He will play the Washington Football Team twice (Week 15 and 17) and he will get a rematch against the New York Giants in Week 16. While the Week 16 rematch may not be the most exciting matchup, I do believe he will have a much better showing than last week. As far as Washington goes though, well…they are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the whole season. Hurts should absolutely feast on their defense. His rushing ability always gives a strong floor for his fantasy output. I would not be surprised at all if Hurts finishes as the QB1 between Weeks 15 through Week 17. Here are my predictions for him…

Week 15-17 ProjectionsPassing YardsINTsRushing YardsTDsDOFP
Jalen Hurts, PHI7053205788.8

Running Back League Winners

Last year one of my running back league winners was David Montgomery. While I do have him as an honorable mention this year, there are better matchups to be had. Those good matchups start with the Denver Broncos running backs.

Javonte Williams ($2,216,438)

Javonte Williams was one of the top rookie running backs I was targeting late in dynasty and re-draft leagues this year. I expected that he wasn’t going to make much of an impact over the first part of the season, but I also anticipated that he would receive more and more opportunities as the season wore on. With those additional opportunities, he would be able to showcase his abilities as one of the most talented backs in his class.

Through the first 12 weeks, Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams have mostly split the backfield.  Gordon holds the slight edge with 13 more touches. I wish I could say that I predict Williams will run away with the workload, but I just don’t see that being the case. Even with a split workload, Williams would have more than enough opportunity over the Dynasty Owner playoffs to be considered a league winner. Here is who he will face between Week 14 and 17…

Week 14: Detroit Lions

Week 15: Cincinnati Bengals

Week 16: Las Vegas Raiders

Week 17: Los Angeles Chargers

Each one of these four teams is in the top third for fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Look for success from both Gordon and Williams, but I will take the youth to outscore the veteran.

Week 15-17 ProjectionsTotal YardsReceptionsTDsDOFP
Javonte Williams, DEN2519246.1

James Robinson ($763,333)

James Robinson is a player who lost a lot of luster after the Jaguars drafted Travis Etienne in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Most, if not all, of that luster came back following the season ending injury Etienne sustained. With that injury, Robinson once again became the workhorse back and the beneficiary of an extremely favorable Dynasty Owner playoff schedule. Robinson will play the Houston Texans in Week 15, the New York Jets in Week 16 and the improved New England Patriots in Week 17. Let’s break it down…

The Texans currently rank 10th in terms of fantasy points given up to running backs. We just watched them give up over 150 running yards and two rushing touchdowns to the New York Jets.

The Jets are currently giving up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

The Patriots are the best opponent Robinson will face in the Dynasty Owner playoffs, but they are still in the bottom half for rushing defense on the season. The bottom line is that Robinson has some rock solid matchups, and his volume should ensure that he is a top tier running back start throughout the duration of the playoffs.

Week 15-17 ProjectionsTotal YardsReceptionsTDsDOFP
James Robinson26310357.3

These projections include an anticipated clutch scoring bonus for Robinson in one of these three games.

D’Andre Swift ($2,134,728)

I’m not going to give a full breakdown on Swift. I just wanted to mention him. He is RB9 on the season despite having only 6 touches on Thanksgiving. There is a realistic chance that he misses at least one game with a shoulder injury he sustained last week. There is also a realistic chance the injury extends longer than just one week. For that reason, I’m not going to give projections for him, but I want to make everyone aware of his fine looking playoff schedule if he remains healthy. Swift will play…

Week 15: Arizona Cardinals

Week 16: Atlanta Falcons

Week 17: Seattle Seahawks

None of these matchups should scare you and the Falcons and Seahawks matchups are very advantageous for running backs.

That’s all I have for you today. Next week I will finish this article series with my second part. I will give some great wide receiver and tight end playoff match-ups. Thank you for reading. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Opportunity Is (Almost) Everything: Part IV

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello Dynasty Owners. I am Matt TheJerk here with the final installment of my Opportunity Is (Almost) Everything article series. It’s hard to believe that the month of November is nearly over.  With this end, comes the dawn of the fantasy and Dynasty Owner playoffs (only three weeks away). After this article, I will delve into the topic of playoffs. I will present a series of articles that speculate on the players who I think will be league winners for a lot of Dynasty Owner teams this season. But before we get too far ahead, let’s talk about some tight ends and their opportunities. Here is what I have quoted in all four of my “Opportunity” articles this year. It is an excerpt from my articles last year when I really started to experiment with opportunities compared to fantasy points.

“A few years ago, I came across a few underutilized metrics that, I think, can help bridge the gap between opportunity and fantasy production.  So often we compare Player x to Player y without having the full context of their seasons.  I am guilty of comparing players that I know haven’t had the same opportunity.  These metrics are also a great way to see which players are on the field, but aren’t receiving the opportunity you would expect.  This article will be limited to players in my Top 100 updated rankings.”

Today, I’ll be writing about the tight end position. Due to the fact that tight end is a very scarce and tough position to predict, I am going to only be taking stats from the Top 10 tight ends in Dynasty Owner right now. In addition to that, I will be presenting only the Top 3 for each category. The categories are…

  • Total Opportunities
  • Opportunities per Snap
  • Fantasy Points per Opportunity
  • Salary Compared to Opportunity

Tight Ends

Total Opportunities

All the stats that I’m including for this article are only through Week 10.  I felt it was more appropriate to include a complete set of 10 weeks considering this is a holiday week.  Regardless, I wouldn’t expect the numbers or rankings to change much even if the Week 11 games were included.  Without further ado, here are the Top 3 for tight end opportunities…

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunitiesDOFP
Travis Kelce, KC$14,312,50089163.7
Darren Waller, LV$7,450,00071105.4
Mike Gesicki, MIA$1,652,98170110.9

An opportunity for a tight end is defined in the same way that it is for a running back or wide receiver. An opportunity is any target or rushing attempt. As it turns out, tight ends do not have rushing attempts very often, and no one in the Top 10 had one. So, the opportunities you are seeing are all targets.

Travis Kelce leads all tight ends in opportunities, and that should not come as a surprise. What I find interesting is the salary difference between TE1 and TE2 and then also TE2 to TE3. There is definitely a wide range of salary for the top opportunity tight ends. But like I said, Kelce is far and away the tight end with the most volume. He has 18 more targets than the next nearest TE.

**I find it funny that I mentioned not one tight end in the Top 10 had a rushing attempt, and then Kelce goes and has himself a rushing touchdown in Week 11. Those stats are however not included in this article.**

Opportunities Per Snap

Up next I like to look into Opportunities per Snap. This gives me an idea of what players are getting the most opportunities when they are actually on the field. Of all four major offensive positions, tight end is the one position that has the lowest Opp/Snap. This makes sense as tight ends are called on to block much more than any of the other three major positions. Here are the Top 3 tight ends for Opp/Snap…

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunitiesDOFPSnapsOpp/Snap
Darren Waller, LV$7,450,00071105.44810.15
Travis Kelce, KC$14,312,50089163.76100.15
Mark Andrews, BAL$863,29069140.34810.14

There’s a few things I want to mention with this stat.

First, I want to point out how Darren Waller’s opportunities and Opp/Snap may be a little skewed. These are the actual numbers that he has posted over the past 10 weeks.  However, he had 19 opportunities in Week 1. Since then, the most he has totaled in any one game is 11.  Again, I’m not saying these 19 opportunities should be forgotten about, but we have to realize that Waller hasn’t been utilized anywhere close to the way he was used in Week 1. In fact, more than 25 percent of his Dynasty Owner fantasy points came in Week 1.

Second, I want to show that even with a 0.15 Opp/Snap (an opportunity on 15 percent of his snaps), Travis Kelce would rank as the WR6 this year in Dynasty Owner fantasy points if he was labeled as a wide receiver. Let me put that into perspective. If Kelce was a wide receiver, he would currently be 15th in opportunity per snap. Despite this fact, he would be the WR6 on the season. What this tells me is that Kelce is amazingly vital to his team’s success, and that it isn’t limited to receptions and touchdowns. He has a very high number of snaps (610), but he has a relatively low number of opportunities at least compared to top tier wide receivers. Even with this high praise, I was surprised to learn that he is not ranked in the Top 3 for DOFP/Opp.  Based on the info I’ve presented you; do you have any guesses as to who is in the Top 3?

Fantasy Points Per Opportunity

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunitiesDOFPSnapsOpp/SnapDOFP/Opp
Hunter Henry, NE$12,500,00042108.34700.0892.58
Mark Andrews, BAL$863,29069140.34810.1432.03
Dalton Schultz, DAL$728,0905199.85050.1011.96

That’s right! Hunter (All I Do Is Score Touchdowns) Henry is the tight end leader for “efficiency” through 10 weeks. The reason for this is precisely due to the nickname I just gave him…he scores touchdowns. Henry already has seven touchdowns in the 2021 season. Since Week 4, he has scored a touchdown in every game except for one. One of those weeks, he had a double touchdown game.

Do you remember back to last week when I talked about how efficient DeAndre Hopkins has been this season? Well, Henry has been even slightly more efficient. Henry has seven touchdowns with only 31 receptions and 42 opportunities. This means that 16.7 percent of the time Henry gets the ball thrown his way, he gets a touchdown. It also means that 22.6 percent of the time he catches the ball, he gets a touchdown. This is truly amazing efficiency, but it’s not something that is totally unprecedented. Jimmy Graham finished the 2020 NFL season with a similar stat line, although not quite as impressive. Graham had 8 touchdowns on only 50 receptions with less than 500 yards.

The other two names have been staples of efficiency over at least the past year and a half. Schultz has to be hyper efficient if he wants any meaningful fantasy production amongst so many mouths to feed in Dallas, and Andrews has been a top tier fantasy producer his entire career with low volume.

Salary Compared To Opportunity

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunitiesFPsSnapsOpp/SnapDOFP/Opp
Hunter Henry, NE$12,500,00042108.34700.092.58
Mark Andrews, BAL$863,29069140.34810.142.03
Dalton Schultz, DAL$728,0905199.85050.101.96
Travis Kelce, KC$14,312,50089163.76100.151.84
Tyler Conklin, MIN$685,2584988.35130.101.80
Tyler Higbee, LAR$7,250,0005189.45770.091.75
Kyle Pitts, ATL$8,227,62464106.64300.151.67
Noah Fant, DEN$3,147,6805997.94790.121.66
Mike Gesicki, MIA$1,652,98170110.94920.141.58
Darren Waller, LV$7,450,00071105.44810.151.48

There are a few clear cut values when it comes to tight ends. Throughout all of these four articles, my goal was to try and find a better metric for value through efficiency. When I combine salary with fantasy points and DOFP/Opp we see that these are the four tight ends that stand out…

  • Mark Andrews
  • Dalton Schultz
  • Tyler Conklin
  • Mike Gesicki

Barring injury, there is almost no chance that Mark Andrews will not be the Value of the Year for tight ends. Andrews is only 23.4 fantasy points behind Kelce. This stat in itself is deceiving because Kelce hasn’t had his bye yet, but Andrews has. Andrews is that close to Kelce, yet his salary is only 6 percent of Kelce’s.

Thank you for reading. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Opportunity Is (Almost) Everything: Part III

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello all.  I’m Matt TheJerk here with Dynasty Owner. Today I’m going to continue my Opportunity is (Almost) Everything article series. In the past two weeks, I have written about the Top 20 Dynasty Owner quarterbacks and running backs. It is the wide receiver’s turn today. I’ll give you the same spiel that I have given over both of the two previous articles…

“A few years ago, I came across a few underutilized metrics that, I think, can help bridge the gap between opportunity and fantasy production.  So often we compare Player x to Player y without having the full context of their seasons.  I am guilty of comparing players that I know haven’t had the same opportunity.  These metrics are also a great way to see which players are on the field, but aren’t receiving the opportunity you would expect.  This article will be limited to players in my Top 100 updated rankings.”

Wide receivers will be talked about today. I’ll be presenting the Top 5 of each category listed here:

  • Total Opportunities
  • Opportunities per Snap
  • Fantasy Points per Opportunity
  • Salary Compared to Opportunity

Wide Receiver

Total Opportunities

As it pertains to wide receivers, an opportunity is defined as any rushing attempt or target. Traditionally wide receivers don’t receive much rushing opportunity throughout a season, but there are a few that receive a decent amount (think Deebo Samuel). Here are the Top 5 wide receivers in terms of opportunity this season…

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunitiesDOFP
Tyreek Hill, KC$18,000,000118210.6
Cooper Kupp, LAR$15,750,000117259.3
D.J. Moore, CAR$2,792,829102146.1
Davante Adams, GB$14,500,00098175.4
Deebo Samuel, SF$1,811,86997195.6

I would say that there is only one surprise on this list. It’s understandable that Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams and Deebo Samuel are all on this list. Each of them are currently in Top 5 wide receivers in terms of Dynasty Owner fantasy points this year. What’s surprising to me is the fact that D.J. Moore has the third most opportunities of any wide receiver this year, yet he is WR14 on the season.

These are exactly the types of trends I’m looking to find when I crunch these numbers. So, the question is…

“How?  How could Moore have over 100 opportunities with less than 150 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to show for it?”

For my answer I look toward two statistics. First, is the fact that D.J. Moore has a poor catch percentage of 60% this season. So, while he has received 95 targets this season he has only converted 57 of them into receptions. The second fact is that Sam Darnold has an abysmal completion percentage of 59.5 percent. That currently ranks 30th in the NFL. I think most of us know that D.J. Moore is a much better wide receiver than his career stats have shown. The majority of that blame, in my opinion, rests on the ineptness of the quarterbacks he has played with, especially this season. While Darnold started the season hot, he has massively cooled down.

What’s most disappointing is that I don’t see Moore’s outlook getting much better over the rest of the season. His quarterback will be a combination of P.J. Walker and Cam Newton.

Opportunities Per Snap

Another attempt to find raw efficiency is looking at opportunities per snap. This metric looks at how often a player is utilized when they are on the field.  In order to look forward, let’s look back at last year’s Opp/Snap…

Player, TeamSalaryOpp/Snap
Davante Adams, GB$14,500,0000.20
Diontae Johnson, PIT$1,070,2410.18
Stefon Diggs, BUF$14,400,0000.17
Keenan Allen, LAC$11,250,0000.17
Calvin Ridley, ATL$2,725,1780.17

                                (2020 Statistics)

We can see that Davante Adams led all Top 20 wide receivers in opportunities per snap last year with an opportunity 20 percent of the time he was on the field.  Compare that with the 2021 season and you see a very similar trend…

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunitiesDOFPSnapsOpp/Snap
Tyreek Hill, KC$18,000,000118210.65630.21
Deebo Samuel, SF$1,811,86997195.64790.20
Cooper Kupp, LAR$15,750,000117259.35940.20
Davante Adams, GB$14,500,00098175.45000.20
D.J. Moore, CAR$2,792,829102146.15940.17

While most of the players have changed, the statistics remain roughly the same. A top tier wide receiver can be expected to receive an opportunity approximately 17-20 percent of the time.

Fantasy Points Per Opportunity

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunitiesDOFPDOFP/Opp
DeAndre Hopkins, ARI$27,250,00049125.62.56
Mike Evans, TB$16,500,00066155.62.36
DK Metcalf, SEA$1,146,51364149.62.34
Ja’Marr Chase, CIN$7,547,41077172.22.24
Cooper Kupp, LAR$15,750,000117259.32.22

This is the Top 5 wide receivers in terms of FPs/Opp. What’s most interesting to me is the fact that DeAndre Hopkins has only 49 opportunities (all targets). Despite only 49 opportunities, he has 35 receptions and 7 touchdowns. He has been amazingly efficient so far this season. A lot of his Dynasty Owners would say he is having a disappointing season (I don’t think I would disagree), but that disappointment is only on a volume level.

He didn’t even make the Top 20 list for total fantasy points as he is WR25 on the season. This is mainly caused by two reasons. First (and most obviously) is the fact that he missed the last two games (Week 9 and 10). Hopkins is tending to a hamstring injury, and it is not guaranteed that he will play in Week 11 especially given the fact that Arizona has their bye week in Week 12. Second, is the fact that 33 percent of his Dynasty Owner fantasy points have come from touchdowns. While these touchdowns are very good Dynasty Owner fantasy points, it somewhat compensates for his low volume of targets. Compare this 33 percent from Hopkins with Cooper Kupp who has obtained only 23 percent of his Dynasty Owner fantasy points from touchdowns. Or compare it with Tyreek Hill who has only 22.8 percent of his Dynasty Owner fantasy points from touchdowns.

Now, there are two ways to take this info. One could say, “well this is great because when/if Hopkins starts getting more volume then he should return to being a Top 10 wide receiver.” While this could be true, I don’t expect it. I think this second argument is more likely. “What if the volume does not increase much and his touchdown rate cannot be sustained?” We know that touchdowns are one of the most fluky happenings in football. I’m just a little concerned that a lot of Hopkins limited success this season is being overblown because of an unsustainable touchdown rate. This could be especially true if the Cardinals continue to win games and the game script moves away from passing volume.

Salary Compared To Opportunity

Like I did with the quarterbacks and running backs, I’m going to expand this FPs/Opp to the Top 10 and see if we can see any salary trends…

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunitiesFPsFPs/Opp
DeAndre Hopkins, ARI$27,250,00049125.62.56
Mike Evans, TB$16,500,00066155.62.36
DK Metcalf, SEA$1,146,51364149.62.34
Ja’Marr Chase, CIN$7,547,41077172.22.24
Cooper Kupp, LAR$15,750,000117259.32.22
Michael Pittman, IND$2,153,21278157.72.02
Deebo Samuel, SF$1,811,86997195.62.02
Chris Godwin, TB$15,983,00078155.92.00
Mike Williams, LAC$15,680,00072142.81.98
Marquise Brown, BAL$2,946,83583161.41.94

What we find is that there is an even split between top level salaries compared to low level salaries. The low salaries show some of the most efficient players in terms of both opportunities and salaries for the 2021 season. Like I said with the other two positions, I expect one of these five players to end the season as my wide receiver Value of the Year (VOTY). The five players are…

  • DK Metcalf
  • Ja’Marr Chase
  • Michael Pittman
  • Deebo Samuel
  • Marquise Brown

For what it’s worth, I don’t really believe Chase as a chance to be the VOTY. While his salary is in the lower tier ($7,547,410), it is not low enough to be considered the ultimate value at the position.

Thank you for reading.  Next week I will wrap up my series when we talk about the tight ends. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Opportunity Is (Almost) Everything: Part II

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Happy Wednesday everyone. This week we find ourselves officially halfway through the NFL regular season. At this halfway point, I will continue my “Opportunity is (Almost) Everything” articles. Today is my second installment, and we will be talking about the running backs. If you missed the first part of this article that was posted last week, I suggest you read that first. It will give you a general understanding of what my goal of these four articles is going to be. If you haven’t read Part I, let me give you a summary from it…

“A few years ago, I came across a few underutilized metrics that, I think, can help bridge the gap between opportunity and fantasy production.  So often we compare Player x to Player y without having the full context of their seasons.  I am guilty of comparing players that I know haven’t had the same opportunity.  These metrics are also a great way to see which players are on the field, but aren’t receiving the opportunity you would expect.  This article will be limited to players in my Top 100 updated rankings.”

Today we will be talking about running backs. I’ll be presenting the Top 5 of each category listed here:

  • Total Opportunities
  • Opportunities per Snap
  • Fantasy Points per Opportunity
  • Salary Compared to Opportunity

Running Backs

Total Opportunities

For our purposes, a running back opportunity will be defined as any rushing attempt or receiving target that player has. Essentially, an opportunity is anytime a player has the ball or has an opportunity to have the ball. Of all the running backs in Dynasty Owner’s Top 20, here are the five that lead in total opportunities through nine weeks…

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunitiesDOFP
Derrick Henry, TEN$12,500,000239207.3
Najee Harris, PIT$3,261,862202161.0
Alvin Kamara, NO$15,000,000190160.7
Joe Mixon, CIN$12,000,000176160.0
Jonathan Taylor, IND$1,957,287167191.4

For the most part, running backs are tightly correlated with their usage. It’s not always the case, but most of the time the running backs with the highest number of opportunities are at the top of the stats page at the end of the season. The same cannot be said for the other positions, especially quarterback. You can see that the first half of the 2021 season is no exception.

All five of the “top opportunity” running backs are inside of the Top 6 in terms of total fantasy points. This means that there is a single running back inside the Top 5 for total points that is outside of the Top 5 for opportunities. That player is Austin Ekeler. Ekeler is currently RB3 on the season, but he has the 10th most running back opportunities with 146. This is one of the ways that we can start to see some efficiency, but we’ll talk about that later.

What’s interesting is that Derrick Henry continues to lead all NFL running backs in total opportunities despite missing one game so far. It is also unlikely that he will be passed in Week 10 unless Najee Harris has a 38 opportunity week.

Opportunities Per Snap

The opportunity statistic really doesn’t tell us much as far as efficiency goes. It’s merely a raw volume stat. This can be misleading when it comes to injuries, bye weeks or even missed games due to COVID. Additionally, we can look at a player’s opportunities compared to the number of snaps that they take. You could think of this metric as a way to see who is most involved when they are actually on the field. For example, Cordarrelle Patterson is not on the field much when compared to a lot of running backs in the Top 20, but when he is on the field he “sees” an opportunity 47 percent of the time. So, where he ranks 18th in total opportunities, he now ranks 6th in Opp/Snap. Patterson is being used when he is on the field. Here is the Top 5 for Opportunities Per Snap:

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunitiesDOFPSnapsOpp/Snap
Derrick Henry, TEN$12,500,000239207.34110.58
Damien Harris, NE$907,784146114.02690.54
Nick Chubb, CLE$1,845,774128125.02430.53
Joe Mixon, CIN$12,000,000176160.03630.48
Jonathan Taylor, IND$1,957,287167191.43530.47

Any surprises or objections from anyone reading? Damien Harris may seem like the outlier from this group, but it shows how involved he has been this season for the Patriots. Not only has he been involved, but I would say he has been necessary for the team’s success. He is getting an opportunity on 54 percent of the snaps that he is on the field for. The other four players (Henry, Chubb, Mixon and Taylor) all make sense to me. They are not only workhorse backs, but they are also vital to their team’s success. They are all relied upon at least 47 percent of the time they touch the field. For reference, this is what the Top 5 looked like last year at this same time…

Player, TeamSalaryOpp/Snap
Cam Akers, LA$1,543,2580.58
Derrick Henry, TEN$10,278,0000.57
Dalvin Cook, MIN$1,588,3340.56
Josh Jacobs, LV$2,983,3500.55
Ronald Jones II, TB$1,767,9770.54

                 (2020 Opp/Snap on November 10th)

While many of the names have changed, the Opp/Snap seem to be right on par with this year. All of these players are very efficient at receiving opportunities for the time they are on the field.  Now let’s look at player’s efficiency in terms of Fantasy Points per Opportunity.

Fantasy Points Per Opportunity

If you had to guess which running back inside the Dynasty Owner Top 20 is leading the league in FPs/Opp, who would you guess? I would have guessed right prior to making these statistics, but it’s only because he is an extreme outlier as a player.

The running back…well…I don’t really consider him a running back at all.

I say this because less than 25 percent of his fantasy points have come on the ground. That’s right, the player that’s number one for FPs/Opp is Cordarrelle Patterson.

Player, TeamSalaryOppFPsSnapsOpp/SnapDOFP/Opp
Cordarrelle Patterson, ATL$3,000,000120160.02540.471.33
Austin Ekeler, LAC$6,125,000146167.43640.401.15
Jonathan Taylor, IND$1,957,287167191.43530.471.15
Kareem Hunt, CLE$6,000,00093104.21980.471.12
James Conner, ARI$1,750,000125130.52830.441.04

Patterson is far and away the most efficient running back this season when you compare his Dynasty Owner fantasy points to opportunity. He has only 120 total opportunities, yet he has 160.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. This means that every time he gets an opportunity he is averaging 1.33 fantasy points.

This is an incredible pace, but it’s not entirely unprecedented. Just last year there was a rookie running back who had very similar numbers. His name is D’Andre Swift…

Player, TeamSalaryFPs/Opp
D’Andre Swift, DET$2,134,7281.30
Alvin Kamara, NO$964,4431.28
Dalvin Cook, MIN$1,588,3341.18
Chris Carson, SEA$616,2821.14
Aaron Jones, GB$650,4841.13

              (2020 FPs/Opp on November 10th)

Swift had an amazing year efficiency wise, but what Patterson is doing is better, and he is leading other running backs by a much wider margin. Austin Ekeler is perennially thought of as one of the more efficient backs in the league, mainly because of his receiving work. This year even him and Kamara are well behind Patterson. This begs one big question…

“Can it continue? Is his efficiency able to be carried through an entire 17 game season?” My answer prior to the season would have been “no”, but this has continued much longer than I would have initially thought. Another question sits in the back of my mind as well…

“What happens if Patterson is given a full volume workload?” Obviously his efficiency will go down as it does for every player, but how much would it decrease? Surely his overall production would increase. Regardless, Patterson is and will continue to be one of the biggest steals in Dynasty Owner this year. He is a steal both in terms of salary and draft capital to obtain him.

Salary Compared To Opportunity

Like we did with the quarterbacks, let’s expand this to a Top 10 list as see what we can do with a salary comparison.

Player, TeamSalaryOppFPsSnapsOpp/SnapDOFP/Opp
Cordarrelle Patterson, ATL$3,000,0001201602540.471.33
Austin Ekeler, LAC$6,125,000146167.43640.401.15
Jonathan Taylor, IND$1,957,287167191.43530.471.15
Kareem Hunt, CLE$6,000,00093104.21980.471.12
James Conner, ARI$1,750,000125130.52830.441.04
James Robinson, JAX$763,333112112.52930.381.00
D’Andre Swift, DET$2,134,728147144.43810.390.98
Nick Chubb, CLE$1,845,7741281252430.530.98
Aaron Jones, GB$12,000,000157148.63720.420.95
Joe Mixon, CIN$12,000,0001761603630.480.91

Here is how I look at this list. I see ten players who don’t need a great amount of touches or opportunities to make a fantasy impact. At the very least, they are more efficient than the average NFL running back. When you combine salary it’s easy to see that there are six “stand out” players.”  They are…

  • Cordarrelle Patterson
  • Jonathan Taylor
  • James Conner
  • James Robinson
  • D’Andre Swift
  • Nick Chubb

These are the six running backs that are leading all of my efficiency metrics for the 2021 season, and I look for one of these six to end the year as my running back Value of the Year.

Thank you for reading. Next Wednesday we will talk about wide receivers. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Opportunity Is (Almost) Everything: Part I

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Welcome all. I’m Matt TheJerk here with Dynasty Owner for another mid-week article. Today I am going to write about one of my favorite topics. Opportunity compared with production. Last year I did a two part series titled Opportunity Is (Almost) Everything. I figured I would repeat that theme this year. So, what are the goals from this article series? Here is what I wrote last year, and it still holds true.

“A few years ago, I came across a few underutilized metrics that, I think, can help bridge the gap between opportunity and fantasy production.  So often we compare Player x to Player y without having the full context of their seasons.  I am guilty of comparing players that I know haven’t had the same opportunity.  These metrics are also a great way to see which players are on the field, but aren’t receiving the opportunity you would expect.  This article will be limited to players in my Top 100 updated rankings.”

Today we will be talking about quarterbacks. In addition to recapping some of the highlights from my article last year, I’m going to be presenting some of the leaders in each of these categories…

  • Total Opportunities
  • Opportunities per Snap
  • Fantasy Points per Opportunity
  • Salary Compared to Opportunity

So often we talk about how much a player’s opportunity means to fantasy production (especially for running backs). Well over the next month, I’m going to show you that while it is very important, opportunity isn’t quite everything.

Quarterbacks

Total Opportunities

First, let’s talk about total quarterback opportunities. For our purposes, an opportunity will be defined as a pass attempt or a rushing attempt. Therefore, a quarterback’s total opportunities will be their passing attempts plus their rushing attempts.  Of the quarterbacks in Dynasty Owner’s Top 20, these are the five that lead in total opportunities…

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunitiesDOFP
Patrick Mahomes, KC$45,000,000360225.1
Tom Brady, TB$25,000,000357280.1
Jalen Hurts, PHI$1,506,292329213.0
Josh Allen, BUF$5,295,760323235.3
Daniel Jones, NYG$6,416,014319163.0

There were a few surprises here, specifically Hurts (329) and Jones (319). I suppose it’s not too surprising though. Both quarterbacks are on teams that have found themselves behind in games more often than not. They both rush more than the average quarterback as well.

The main takeaway from this chart is that the opportunity leaders for quarterbacks are not necessarily the highest fantasy producers. Yes, Brady is the QB1 on the season and Josh Allen is the QB3, but the other quarterbacks start to fall down the list, especially Jones.

Opportunities Per Snap

Another way we can look at opportunities is to see how often the player is getting a chance (opportunity) when they are actually on the field (snaps). Once again, this won’t tell us everything, but it should show us which players are getting the ball more than others, when available. This may seem like a useless exercise because quarterbacks handle the ball more than any other position, but it’s setting the stage for the other three main positions. Here are the Top 5 for opportunities per snap…

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunitiesDOFPSnapsOpp/Snap
Tom Brady, TB$25,000,000357280.15390.66
Josh Allen, BUF$5,295,760323235.34890.66
Jalen Hurts, PHI$1,506,292329213.05000.66
Patrick Mahomes, KC$45,000,000360225.15650.64
Lamar Jackson, BAL$2,367,912301210.94740.64

Josh Allen leads all quarterbacks in opportunities per snap. He is receiving an opportunity on 66% of his snaps. That is an absolutely unreal pace. For reference, the league leader at this time last year was Dak Prescott at 67%. Remember how good of a season Dak was having prior to his injury? Also, at this time last year Allen’s Opp/Snap was 0.64. So, he is receiving more opportunities per snap this year than he did last year. Let’s hope the trend can continue.

Not many surprises on this list. All five of these quarterbacks are in the Dynasty Owner Top 10.  Now let’s compare a player’s fantasy points to their opportunities.

Fantasy Points Per Opportunity

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunitiesDOFPSnapsOpp/SnapDOFP/Opp
Matthew Stafford, LA$27,000,000293252.04900.600.86
Joe Burrow, CIN$9,047,534265213.84670.570.81
Jameis Winston, NO$5,500,000193152.03710.520.79
Tom Brady, TB$25,000,000357280.15390.660.78
Dak Prescott, DAL$40,000,000238181.54470.530.76

You can think of this as an efficiency rating. The players at the top of this list are ones who are making the most of their opportunity, fantasy wise at least. So far this season, Matthew Stafford is the leader in fantasy points per opportunity. He is compiling almost 0.9 fantasy points for every opportunity (pass or rush) that he has. For reference, Russell Wilson led this list at about this time last year. His DOFP/Opp were much more impressive though. He was at 0.97 or almost 1 fantasy point per opportunity.

Other notable names on this list are Tom Brady and Joe Burrow. Brady (despite the large amount of volume) is still in the Top 5 for this efficiency metric. He has had over 50 more opportunities than the next closest player on this list. On the other hand, Burrow had the most opportunities of any quarterback at this time last year. Well, it seems like he has traded some of that volume for efficiency. Burrow is 17th of the Top 20 quarterbacks in terms of opportunities, but he currently ranks 2nd in fantasy points per opportunity. In my opinion, this is a critical sign that Burrow has taken a big step forward in his career. It doesn’t hurt that Ja’Marr Chase has been about as efficient as it gets when it comes to wide receivers, but that’s a different story for a different article.

Salary Compared To Opportunity

Let’s expand this and look at the Top 10 in terms of fantasy points per opportunity.  We can also look at some of the biggest values in terms of Dynasty Dollars…

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunitiesDOFPSnapsOpp/SnapDOFP/Opp
Matthew Stafford, LA$27,000,000293252.04900.600.86
Joe Burrow, CIN$9,047,534265213.84670.570.81
Jameis Winston, NO$5,500,000193152.03710.520.79
Tom Brady, TB$25,000,000357280.15390.660.78
Dak Prescott, DAL$40,000,000238181.54470.530.76
Aaron Rodgers, GB$33,500,000276205.84910.560.75
Kyler Murray, ARI$8,914,504305225.35270.580.74
Josh Allen, BUF$5,295,760323235.34890.660.73
Lamar Jackson, BAL$2,367,912301210.94740.640.70

It’s easy to see that there are five quarterbacks in this Top 10 that are not only both efficient in terms of DOFP/Opp but also salary.  These five players are:

  • Joe Burrow
  • Jameis Winston
  • Kyler Murray
  • Josh Allen
  • Lamar Jackson

Winston’s case is unfortunately a moot point as he will miss the remainder of the season. The other four are rock solid value plays, and they should continue to be for the rest of the season.

Thank you for reading. Next week I will continue my series and talk about some running backs and their opportunities. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Mid-Season Awards & Rankings

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello all. I’m Matt TheJerk back with another Thursday article. Today I’m going to be presenting some mid-season awards. While this isn’t the exact halfway point of the entire Dynasty Owner season (including playoffs and the championship), this is the midway point of the regular season. Obviously, not every Dynasty Owner will be competing for the Championship after Week 14. Therefore, I figure Week 7 is an appropriate time to recap the season so far. I’ll be presenting some Top 5 rankings for each position as well as the first half status of the Value of the Year candidates. I have a lot to talk about today so let’s do it…

Mid-Season Awards & Rankings

Quarterback Top 5

RankPlayerSalaryTotal YardsTDsDOFP
QB1Tom Brady$25,000,0002,31222245.2
QB2Matthew Stafford$27,000,0002,19619217.8
QB3Kyler Murray$8,914,5042,12820216.5
QB4Lamar Jackson$2,367,9122,42312210.9
QB5Patrick Mahomes$45,000,0002,31219208.4

This is a very solid list, and I don’t see many surprises here. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, I’m not so much surprised that Tom Brady is the QB1, but rather by how much he leads the position. Brady currently has almost 30 points more than Matthew Stafford (the next closest quarterback).

Something else worth mentioning is that Josh Allen barely missed this Top 5 as he is QB7 at the moment. He is the highest ranked quarterback that has already had his bye week. This means that he has one game in hand over every other QB above him. I’m not going to say that he will make up the distance between him and Brady in a single game, but he would without a doubt jump to QB2. Using his average fantasy points per game, he would have 233.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (DOFP) and would solidly be the QB2. Just something to think about for all of you Dynasty Owners with Allen on your roster. Bye weeks tend to skew total points.

Running Back Top 5

RankPlayerSalaryTotal YardsReceptionsTDsDOFP
RB1Derrick Henry$12,500,0001,0231810201.5
RB2D’Andre Swift$2,134,728653425137.3
RB3Jonathan Taylor$1,957,287792186135.2
RB4Austin Ekeler$6,125,000598277131.8
RB5Najee Harris$3,261,862632344123.2


**This was written prior to the Monday Night Football game where Alvin Kamara scored a season high 33.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. This puts him at 123.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and RB5 on the season. Given that the points scored between Harris and Kamara were so close I just left Harris at 5.**

Look at all the youth on this list. Sure, Henry and Ekeler are veteran backs with a combined 11 years of experience under their belts, but the other three running backs on the list have a total of five combined years of experience. It’s said all the time, but the future of running backs is definitely bright for the NFL.

Henry is far and away the best running back this season. He is currently on pace for 2,484 yards and 24 touchdowns. The biggest surprise on this list is the fact that Ekeler and Harris make the Top 5 despite already having their bye weeks. This is an amazing statistic considering they have played 85 percent of the games that other running backs on this list have.

Wide Receiver Top 5

RankPlayerSalaryTotal YardsReceptionsTDsDOFP
WR1Cooper Kupp$15,750,000804569190.9
WR2Ja’Marr Chase$7,547,410752356151.2
WR3Davante Adams$14,500,000744523150.4
WR4Tyreek Hill$18,000,000704525149.4
WR5Marquise Brown$2,946,835571376132.1

Again, we have a good mix of veterans and younger players. Likewise, there is a good mix of cheap and expensive salaries. Marquise Brown comes into this list as the best value by far. His WR5 standing combined with his salary of less than $3,000,000 makes him the most valuable wide receiver in the Top 5 (at least on paper).

Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if this list looked very similar to this at the end of the season. All five of these players look like they have no intentions of slowing down, especially Kupp, Chase and Adams.

Tight End Top 5

RankPlayerSalaryTotal YardsReceptionsTDsDOFP
TE1Travis Kelce$14,312,500533454122.3
TE2Mark Andrews$863,290516373112.6
TE3Mike Gesicki$1,652,98142737291.7
TE4T.J. Hockenson$4,955,30635938285.9
TE5Dalton Schultz$728,09035931384.9

The biggest takeaway from this list is the idea that the tight end position is very bunched up outside of the top tier. I’ve talked about this before, but outside of the top tier, the position starts to get murky. The other problem is that it’s not easy to predict who will be in the top tier each year. Before the season started, I had Kelce in his own tier by himself, Kittle and Waller in tier two and players like Andrews, Hockenson and Pitts in tier three.

So far this season Andrews has outperformed Waller (injury, low volume) and Kittle (injury). Not only has he outplayed both of them, but his salary is less than one-eighth of Waller’s and less than one-fifteenth of Kittle’s.

Value of the Year Candidates

There are several players that I am keeping my eye on for the Value of the Year (VOTY). There are three quarterbacks, three running backs, two wide receivers and one tight end that I want to mention today. I do believe that one of these players will end up being the VOTY for 2021. The players are:

  • Kyler Murray
  • Lamar Jackson
  • Josh Allen
  • D’Andre Swift
  • Jonathan Taylor
  • James Robinson
  • Deebo Samuel
  • Terry McLaurin
  • Mark Andrews

I mentioned most of these players in the above sections. However, I didn’t talk about James Robinson, Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin. All three are outside the Top 5 at their positions, but their salaries are so low that they have a realistic chance of making a run at the Value of the Year.

The odds-on favorite is likely a quarterback just because they historically score more points than any other position. But will that quarterback be able to outperform a running back or wide receiver that has a sub $1,000,000 salary. That remains to be seen, but I think the only QB that can do it would be Lamar Jackson.

In the end, I will predict that James Robinson wins the Value of the Year award for the second consecutive year.

This week was a stand-alone article. Next week I will start talking about some opportunity and efficiency rankings. I did that last year and titled those articles “Opportunity is Almost Everything.” As always, thank you for reading and continuing to support Dynasty Owner.  Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube.  Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Thursday Night Football: Week 7

Broncos vs Browns

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Week 7 starts with a game between two 3-3 teams. The Denver Broncos will travel to Cleveland to battle the Browns. The Broncos started the season 3-0, but it’s worth noting that their only victories have come against teams with a combined 3 wins. Those teams are the Giants, Jaguars and Jets. Under normal circumstances, I would have given this game to the Browns easily, but this game is not taking place under normal circumstances. Let me explain why.

The Browns will be without their secondary running back, Kareen Hunt. Hunt was ruled out early in the week as he suffered a calf injury in Week 6. Hunt has already been placed on IR, and will miss at least three games. There was some hope that Nick Chubb would be able to play in this game after he has been battling a calf injury of his own. Unfortunately, Chubb was also ruled out for this Thursday Night affair. Chubb was declared out on Tuesday, and he will miss his second consecutive game. The final blow for the Browns came yesterday as Baker Mayfield was also ruled out. Baker has a labrum tear that happened in Week 6. He will miss the first game of his career due to injury as Case Keenum will take over as the leader of the Browns tonight.

Cleveland is a two point favorite with a very low forty-one point over/under. It appears Vegas is predicting a low scoring game with so many offensive weapons missing.

Value of the Game Recap

Last week, I predicted that Jalen Hurts would be the Week 6 Value of the Game. After watching the game, I was a little unsure if that prediction was right. I compared three of the top players from that game in terms of their Dynasty Dollars per Point (DD/PT) value, and here are the results…

 SalaryDOFPDD/PT
Jalen Hurts$1,506,29227.1$55,582
Antonio Brown$3,075,00024.3$126,543
Leonard Fournette$3,250,00030.7$105,863

Hurts was indeed the Value of the Game from Week 6 Thursday Night Football. He actually had a pretty poor real life football game, but his rushing touchdown efficiency saved his fantasy day.  Hurts ended the game with 27.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (DOFP), and he currently sits at QB9 on the season. Here is my projection from last week compared to the actual results…

Week 6 ProjectionsAttemptsCompletionsPassing YardsRushing YardsTDsDOFP
Jalen Hurts453030157232.8
Week 6 ActualAttemptsCompletionsPassing YardsRushing YardsTDsDOFP
Jalen Hurts261211544327.1

As you can see, my projections were a good way off, but the end result is the same.  Hurts was the Value of the Game.

What To Watch For

The number one thing I’m looking for in this game is essentially what I talked about in my opening. I’ll be keeping track of which offensive players take the lead for the Browns. They will be missing their top three weapons and overall team leaders. How will they respond, and will their defense be able to keep them in the game?

The popular pickup this week was D’Ernest Johnson. I even picked him up in one of my Dynasty Owner leagues. He was cheap enough to warrant an addition (1 year/$585,000). While I’m not expecting an MVP type game, I will be happy with 8 to 10 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. I think he is more than capable of reaching that goal especially with the expectation that he will be the goal line back.

Starters

Every player on this list should be started in nearly every Dynasty Owner league.  At a minimum, you should have a tough decision as to whether you’re going to start them or put them in your Bench slot.

Courtland Sutton ($1,710,480)

Noah Fant ($3,147,680)

Bench

Teddy Bridgewater ($11,499,000)

Melvin Gordon ($8,000,000)

Javonte Williams ($2,216,438)

Demetric Felton ($910,285)

D’Ernest Johnson ($585,000)

Tim Patrick ($3,384,000)

Donovan Peoples-Jones ($870,402)

Value of the Game

This is the least confident that I have been in a few weeks. I have a player in mind that should be the Value of the Game pretty easily, but there are a lot of new, cheap players on the Browns that have the potential to break out. Regardless, I am going with the established player. This week I am picking Broncos WR Courtland Sutton. Sutton has had an inconsistent start to his season to say the least. He has three games of less than 9.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points while also having three games of greater than 23.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. With Jerry Jeudy out for this game, I see Sutton having a game closer to 23 points as opposed to 9.  Here is my official prediction for Courtland tonight…

Week 7 ProjectionsReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
Courtland Sutton6106122.6

This prediction combined with a salary of $1,710,480 makes Sutton my Week 7 Thursday Night Football Value of the Game.

Thank you all, and I will see you next week. Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

Incredibly True Statistics – Tight Ends

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

As we start another week in dynasty football, my article series comes to an end. This will be the final installment of my “Incredibly True Statistics” theme. Today, I will be talking about the surprising seasons that a few tight ends have had. Like I always mention, we are still dealing with a fairly small sample size. Yes, six weeks is a big chunk of the season, but what can happen in six game increments can still be misleading. Regardless, six weeks is not negligible.  We have seen what the majority of player’s seasons should shape up to be within the first two months of the season. Of course, there will be outliers in the back half of the season as there are in the first half, but I feel like we have a much better idea of what some of these players (especially rookies) will become.

This is a long winded way of saying that you may have the urge to give up or replace certain players on your team, and it is perfectly fine to do that by now.  While one or two weeks is not enough time to move on from a certain player, six weeks is more than sufficient.

Incredibly True Statistics

Tight ends may not be your favorite topic to hear about, and to be honest they aren’t my favorite, but they are an important position in Dynasty Owner. Hopefully you can find some value in what I’m about to present to you as there is a major opportunity to beat your opponent in this position especially. While others are becoming bored with tight ends, you should be trying to improve it. Your opponent’s complacency is your gain. Any edge that you can find over your opponent should be exploited, and I think tight end is one of the most exploitable positions in all of fantasy football.

Mark Andrews

The thing that makes Mark Andrews’ performance this season incredible is not the fact that he is TE2 on the season. Before the season started, I would have admitted that a TE2 finish for Andrews is in the realm of possibility. While I wouldn’t have predicted him to be TE2 six weeks through the season, I wouldn’t have called you crazy if you would have told me that. Rather, what’s incredible is how close he is to being the TE1 on the season.

It’s no surprise that Travis Kelce is the current number one tight end, but he holds that spot by only 3.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (DOFP). That’s right, only three receptions separate the Tight End King from Mark Andrews. Here is how Andrews has done it…

He currently has:

 ReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
Mark Andrews344683105.8

This really is an incredible amount of volume when you examine it next to his 2020 and even 2019 volume.  Here is Andrews’ 2021 16-game pace compared to his 2020 and 2019 16-game pace.

2021 ProjectedReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
Mark Andrews911,2488282.1
2020 16-Game StatsReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
Mark Andrews668018192.1
2019 16-Game StatsReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
Mark Andrews6890911218.9

So, there are two ways you can look at this. You can choose to say, “Well, Andrews is on pace for a career year in volume and overall production. He’s well over his career pace, and he’s not going to be able to sustain that efficiency or volume.”

You could take it the other way and say, “Andrews is having a career year, and he is finally being utilized the way that he should. He is a Top 5 tight end in the NFL, and he should see 100 receptions a season.”

I don’t think either side is wrong because I could see his season going either direction, but I would tend to think his usage will more or less be the same going forward. He is a Top 5 NFL tight end. I do feel like he had been underutilized in the past. Here’s the thing though. He really wasn’t needed to be a 100 reception guy in the previous two years. The running game was more than enough to allow Baltimore to win the majority of their games, and I’m worried that you can’t say that now. Running back injuries have decimated the Ravens’ depth chart. I think placing a bigger responsibility on Andrews is the right decision, and I think it will continue through the rest of the 2021 season. If he gets anywhere close to 100 receptions this season, he will be one of the best values in all of Dynasty Owner, let alone among tight ends. A salary of $863,290 is going to allow him to compete for the Value of the Year award.

Dalton Schultz

Probably more surprising than Andrews’ spot at TE2 is the fact that Dalton Schultz is TE3 in Dynasty Owner on the season. Yes, he is in a completely separate tier from Kelce and Andrews due to a significant drop in Dynasty Owner fantasy points, but it’s still very impressive that Schultz has been the third best fantasy tight end. The most interesting part of his epic rise has been the fact that he’s doing it with Blake Jarwin back on the team. You may remember that Schultz got his big opportunity in the NFL after Blake Jarwin missed almost the entire 2020 NFL season. Schultz had a fantastic season as he finished as the TE10 with 148.5 fantasy points.

The assumption was that Schultz’s production would decrease with Jarwin returning. The opposite has actually been true. Schultz not only seems to be the more trusted tight end, but he is also receiving the most volume and playing time. I have both Jarwin and Schultz in one of my Dynasty Owner leagues. I incorrectly played Jarwin over Schultz in the first two weeks. That won’t be happening again this season. While I don’t know if Schultz’s production will continue at a TE3 pace, I do know that he is a Starting tight end, or at the very least a Bench tight end.

As is the case with Andrews, Schultz is on a very cheap salary ($728,090) and has been a good value so far through six weeks.

Kyle Pitts

Finally, let’s talk about Kyle Pitts. There was more hype and optimism surrounding Pitts than any other rookie tight end that I can remember. A lot of this hype was justified though. It’s not every day that NFL fans get to see a tight end selected fourth overall in the NFL draft. I’m not going to say anything bad about Pitts for a few reasons…

First, I think it would be extremely unfair to downplay Pitts’ production so far when he has played in only five NFL games. He is playing one of the most difficult positions to learn as a rookie player. Second, he really hasn’t been bad. A lot of his lack of production has come because of either poor quarterback play or just a lack of volume.

Pitts currently sits as the TE10 on the adolescent season. Pitts’ Dynasty Owners are probably not too happy with the start to his season. Let me give you a few reasons why you shouldn’t be concerned.

First, the most obvious reason is that Atlanta has already had their bye week. This means that while most tight ends have played six games, Pitts has only played five. Don’t let the lack of Dynasty Owner fantasy points scare you. It is a little misleading. Second, as I said earlier, Pitts is a rookie. He’s still learning. Third, his most recent game a week and a half ago was by far his best, and it was a real breakout game. In Week 5, Pitts posted 9 receptions, 119 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown. Now, I don’t expect him to do this every week, but this gives a lot of hope to the Dynasty Owners who have him on their roster. This should help you see a path to fantasy greatness.  Finally, this is Dynasty Owner. So, what if it takes him a year to figure out how to be an NFL tight end?  You are still going to have a superstar in the future with a relatively cheap contract ($8,227,624). Sure, he may disappoint you this year, and this may be a year that you really want to take home the Championship, but you will say that about every year.  Be patient with him (and really all rookies). I can promise you that in two or three years you will be reaping the benefits of sticking with Pitts.

That finishes up my “Incredibly True Statistics” articles.  As always, thank you for reading and continuing to support Dynasty Owner. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk