Incredibly True Statistics – Wide Receivers

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Week 5 is history. It’s officially in the books. With the conclusion of it, we have a single undefeated team remaining, and a single winless team remaining in each conference.

The undefeated team comes from the best conference (speaking in terms of wins), and it is the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals won a close, defensive game against the San Francisco 49ers last week. The 1972 Dolphins will have to put away the champagne for now and wait at least one more week to ensure their undefeated record remains intact.

On the other hand, the Jacksonville Jaguars (as well as the Detroit Lions) remain winless. The Jags lost by 18 in a game that felt closer than that up until the end. The Jags defense continues to be one of the worst in the league as they allowed 37 points and multiple touchdowns to Derrick Henry. At this point, there doesn’t seem to be any reason to think the Jags won’t get the 1st overall pick for the second consecutive year.

Today, I’m going to be continuing my “Incredibly True Statistics” articles. I will be writing about a few wide receivers that have some baffling stats as we are close to a third of the way through the season. Let’s do it…

Incredibly True Statistics

There are a plethora of wide receivers I could talk about for this article. It’s no surprise that’s the case either. Wide receiver is the deepest position in fantasy football as teams often have at least two relevant players for that position. I’m going to limit my ramblings down to three players today, and at the end I’ll give a list of players that deserve mentioning but not necessarily a full write up on.

Mike Williams

“Wow!”  What else can I say about what Williams has done this year. He is currently tied as the WR1 in Dynasty Owner with Cooper Kupp. He has 119.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (DOFP) which is good for 23.82 points per game. What’s also impressive is the fact that he went for more than 36.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in two of his five games. He leads all wide receivers in the NFL with 6 touchdowns. He is also Top 5 in targets and yards.

This is an incredibly hot start to the 2021 season especially for a player who had so much potential coming out of college. Mike Williams was selected 7th overall in the 2017 NFL draft, but he was the second wide receiver selected. Who was the first?  Williams has also dealt with injuries more than an average wide receiver has. I knew he had the talent and build to be the number one wide receiver, but I didn’t think we would ever see it. If you own him and were able to survive his $15,680,000 salary, then you are reaping the benefits right now. While I don’t expect Williams to finish the season as the WR1, he, without question, needs to be started for the rest of the season.

Marquise Brown

Hollywood Brown comes into Week 6 as the WR6. Brown is a player who was given up on over the past couple of years.  Dynasty Owners were definitely frustrated with his lack of production in 2019 and the first half of the 2020 season. It’s not that his fantasy finishes were all that bad, but rather that he was wildly inconsistent. For example:

In 2020, Brown had six games with less than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Five of those games were in the first half of the season. A similar trend was present in 2019 where Brown had eight games with less than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

In addition to being inconsistent, it never seemed like the “Boom Potential” was there for Brown. In 2020, his highest scoring game in Dynasty Owner was 21.1 points, and that occurred in Week 17, so it didn’t help you. Not a great stat for a player who busted 38% of the time.

Well, through the first five games of 2021, Brown seems to have broken that trend. He has 106.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points or an average of 21.3 fantasy points per game. He did have one bust game of 8.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, but the rest have been over 19.0 points. It also seems like he is doing this very quietly. I haven’t heard much buzz about Brown for what he is doing. Brown is a Top 10 wide receiver with a salary that’s less than 3 million dollars per year. If he keeps this up, he’s starting to sound like a Value of the Year candidate.

Ja’Marr Chase

Chase ($7,547,410) is the WR8 five games through the NFL season.  He has 98.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for an average of 19.7 points per game. I’ll be the first to admit that I missed the train on Chase at least for this year. I did not draft him in any of my leagues including Dynasty Owner. It’s not necessarily that I was down on him as a player, but I thought the average draft price he was going at was not reflective of where he would finish at the conclusion of the season. Well, five games through the season he has returned more value than where he was being drafted. A 4th or 5th round pick in a redraft league would be a great value if you knew what he was going to do in the first third of the season. Likewise, a middle of the first round pick in Dynasty Owner rookie drafts was great value as well. He was the first wide receiver off the board in most Dynasty Owner rookie drafts (ADP 4.4), and we are seeing that translate to NFL production.

Of all wide receivers with 20 or more catches, Chase ranks first in yards per reception at 19.8.  The big plays have certainly been there for Chase. Of his five touchdowns, four were over 30 yards. Two of them were 50 yards or more, and one was 70 yards. Like I said, the big plays have been there for Chase. I didn’t expect him to break out this early. Hell, not even Justin Jefferson broke out this early in 2020. Speaking of Jefferson, let’s do an in-depth comparison of these two great wide receivers. Here are Jefferson and Chase’s first five NFL games compared to each other…

 ReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
Justin Jefferson19371162.1
Ja’Marr Chase23456598.4

It’s easy to see that Chase has been much better in his first five NFL games when compared to Jefferson. Obviously this doesn’t tell the whole story, but it does give you an idea of how truly special Chase’s rookie season could be. Let’s compare Chase’s five game average with Jefferson’s entire 2020 season…

 ReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
Justin Jefferson881,4007273.2
Ja’Marr Chase741,45916314.9

This is what Chase would do over a 16 game season if he kept up his current production. Yes, I know the NFL season is now 17 games, but I didn’t want to compare a 16 game season to a 17 game season, so I just simplified Chase’s projection to 16 games.

Obviously, I don’t project Chase to finish his rookie season with 16 touchdowns or 314.9 fantasy points, but it does make you think, “What if?”

Honorable Mentions

Deebo Samuel ($1,811,869) [WR5]

DeAndre Hopkins ($27,250,000) [WR16]

Stefon Diggs ($14,400,000) [WR27]

Please tune in next week as I wrap up my “Incredibly True Statistics” theme. As always, thank you for reading and continuing to support Dynasty Owner. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Thursday Night Football: Week 5

Rams vs Seahawks

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

What a game tonight should be! Thursday Night Football for Week 5 will showcase the Los Angeles Rams versus the Seattle Seahawks. In the past couple of Thursday Night Football articles, I had to do my best to garner interest and enthusiasm for the games. Well, (as Herb Brooks would say) “Not this game, not tonight.”  This should be not only one of the best Thursday Night games we’ve seen this year, but it should be one of the best games overall.

Tonight, the LA Rams travel to Seattle to face a familiar division rival. The Rams are 3-1 while the Seahawks are 2-2. Despite a stout Rams defense, there should be plenty of offensive fireworks. Odds makers currently have the over/under set at 54.5. This is the second highest over/under of the week. It’s second only to the Bills/Chiefs game. I’ll get to it in a few seconds, but there aren’t many players that I wouldn’t want to start in this matchup. But first, let’s talk about last week’s Value of the Game.

Value of the Game Recap

In Week 4, I had picked James Robinson to be the Value of the Game. In all honesty, I wasn’t left with many choices other than Robinson. It was virtually guaranteed that he would be the biggest value as long as he received average volume. Well, not only did he receive that volume, but he was very efficient with it. Here is the prediction I made for Robinson last week compared to his actual stats…

Week 4 ProjectionsRushing AttemptsRushing YardsReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
James Robinson1468549122.7
Week 4 ActualRushing AttemptsRushing YardsReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
James Robinson18781-2223.6

While Robinson’s receiving work was not what I or any of his owners wanted it to be, he made up for that with two rushing touchdowns. This stat line combined with his incredibly cheap salary of $763,333 made him Week 4’s Value of the Game.

What To Watch For

The number one thing I’m going to be looking for tonight is how the Seahawks offense (specifically Russell Wilson) plays against the Rams’ defense. Through the first two weeks of the season, the Rams were dominating on defense especially against fantasy weapons. Week 4 was a setback for the team as a whole as Kyler Murray picked them apart. Murray ended with 29.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. It will be interesting to see if Russ is able to have a satisfactory fantasy performance in the ways that Murray and Tom Brady did or if he will have a similar fate as Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz did in Weeks 1 and 2. My money is on Russ to have above 22 Dynasty Owner fantasy points which should be good enough to start him in most leagues.

Starters

All the players that I include in this list are players who I think should be started in most, if not all, Dynasty Owner leagues.  They are:

Russell Wilson ($35,000,000)

Matthew Stafford ($27,000,000)

Chris Carson [If he plays] ($5,212,500)

Darrell Henderson ($1,053,001)

Tyler Lockett ($10,250,000)

DK Metcalf ($1,146,513)

Cooper Kupp ($15,750,000)

Robert Woods ($16,250,000)

As I mentioned in my opening, I want just about every piece of these offenses in my starting lineup tonight.  The implied point totals for each team are just too juicy to ignore.

Bench Players

In Dynasty Owner, you are able to set a Bench roster. The players on your Bench add 25 percent of their overall total to your final point total at the end of the week. Therefore, it is important to not only consider your Starting lineup very carefully, but also consider your Bench. These are the players that I would be comfortable placing on my Bench tonight.

Van Jefferson ($1,402,784)

Tyler Higbee ($7,250,000)

Value of the Game

I have a few options to choose from for my Value of the Game, but in the end I’m going to pick DK Metcalf.  I also considered Darrell Henderson (and I think he’ll have a fine game), but I think tonight is going to be a Metcalf game. Historically, Metcalf has not played very well against the Rams in the regular season. He had 8 receptions for 87 yards and zero TDs last year against the Rams, but that was combined in both regular season games. However, it may be forgotten that when the Rams and Seahawks met in the Wild Card Round of the 2020 playoffs, Metcalf went for 5 receptions, 96 receiving yards and 2 TDs. I predict a game line closer to the playoff game tonight than the two regular season meetings.  Here is my Value of the Game prediction for Week 5:

Week 5 ProjectionsReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
DK Metcalf794122.4

This combined with a very affordable salary of $1,146,513 makes DK Metcalf my Week 5 Value of the Game.

Thank you all, and I will see you next week.  Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

Incredibly True Statistics – Running Backs

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Good day Dynasty Owners and welcome to another Wednesday article. Last week, I started a new series titled “Incredibly True Statistics.” In these articles, I am discussing different players who have an unbelievable statistic attached to their opening of the season. Last week I talked about players like Tom Brady, Derek Carr and Daniel Jones. Today it’s the running backs’ turn.  I have a few more players to talk now compared to last week, so let’s get started.

Incredibly True Statistics

Cordarrelle Patterson

I don’t know where to begin when it comes to Patterson. I guess let’s start with the facts.

Through four weeks, Patterson has 86.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (21.7 per game). He has 45 touches on the season which is a little over 10 per game. His salary is $3,000,000 per year, and it has been an absolute steal so far. Now for the biggest statistic…

Patterson is currently the RB3 in Dynasty Owner.  Yes, you read that right, there are only two running backs that have scored more fantasy points than Patterson, and they are Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler. I hesitate to even mention Patterson in this section because I don’t really think of him as a running back. Yes, he has more carries than receptions this year, and yes he is listed as a running back in Dynasty Owner. However, the overwhelming majority of his Dynasty Owner fantasy points (DOFP) have come in the receiving game. In fact, 75.5 percent of them have come through the air.

At this point, it seems like Patterson is more of a cheat code than a running back. He is a big receiver who has found a serious connection with Matt Ryan. While I don’t think Patterson will finish the season as a top five “running back”, he will continue to be a value with his cheap salary. Continue to start him, until a drop in efficiency is noticed.

Kareem Hunt

I don’t think that anyone doubted the top five talent that Kareem Hunt brought to Cleveland. Rather, I think people expected that he would not receive enough volume to make him a top eight running back. Well, that’s exactly what he is right now. Hunt is RB8 in the young season.

Again, I’m not surprised by his talent, but I’m surprised that he made it to Top 8 without an injury to Nick Chubb. That’s where the real incredible stat comes from. While Kareem Hunt is RB8 on the season, Nick Chubb is RB14. “How can that be?” you ask yourself…

Well, let’s look at their 2021 statistics side by side and figure it out:

 Rushing AttemptsRushing YardsReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
Kareem Hunt4323412121367.5
Nick Chubb69362426359.8

Now that I’ve shown you the actual fantasy points, you may be a little more at ease as a Chubb owner. The difference between RB8 and RB14 may sound like a lot, but in reality it’s less than 8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points so far. Regardless, Chubb owners still have to feel some level of panic or disappointment.

I’m here to tell you not to freak out, and here’s why. We knew that Chubb was going to be the primary rushing back, and that Hunt would be the third down/receiving back. That’s not breaking news this year. Hunt was always going to be the running back most used as a receiver, and he was likely to be the most efficient pass catching running back. The Browns continue to be a team that operates their offense through the running backs. The volume will be there for both Chubb and Hunt moving forward. As a Chubb owner, you are just going to have to limit expectations moving forward. It’s also worth noting that Chubb ($1,845,774) is more than three times cheaper than Hunt ($6,000,000) in Dynasty Owner, and Chubb will be the better value at the end of this season.

James Robinson

Robinson is currently the RB10 in Dynasty Owner despite starting the season with back to back games of less than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.  The slow start to the season had me a little worried, but Robinson has found the mojo that he had all through the 2020 NFL season.  Here is what I wrote about Robinson in Week 1…

“Nothing frustrated me more during Week 1 than watching James Robinson have only 8 touches. He finished with 7.4 fantasy points. It’s worth stating that in the games Robinson played in 2020, he never had less than 9.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. I wish I could say that I’m not worried, but I am. I had Robinson in the FLEX position in one of my leagues, and I’ve already decided to bump him out for Antonio Brown next week. I haven’t given up on JRob, but I’m going to need to see Urban Meyer’s willingness to use him more before he’s back in my Starting lineup.”

I have seen that from Urban Meyer.  The last two games have shown me (and hopefully the league) that last year was not a fluke.  Robinson is a good running back.

Miles Sanders and Myles Gaskin

Finally, let’s talk about a couple of struggling running backs. Sanders and Gaskin. Both are worse than RB30 through the first four games of the season. Sanders has 40.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and Gaskin has 31.9 points. To put that into perspective, Sanders is averaging 10.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game and Gaskin is averaging just under 8.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Last year, Sanders averaged 14.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game and Gaskin averaged 16.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game (Both of these stats are for games that they played in). Suffice to say that both players are underperforming on their totals last season, and what was projected of them this year.  I would have not predicted both of these backs outside of the Top 30 solely based on their volume last season.

Well, that volume has changed as well. Sanders is averaging 12 touches per game this season, and Gaskin is averaging 10.3 touches per game. Those touches are down from 16 touches per game in 2020 for Sanders and 18.3 per game for Gaskin. Just a very surprising start to their 2021 season. There is good news though. While it’s unlikely either of these players is going to make it back up to the Top 10, they are still both considered values. Sanders has a salary of $1,337,544, and Gaskin has a salary of $651,694. Great value for Bench running backs, huh?

This was part two of my “Incredibly True Statistics” article. Look for the third section next week as I talk about some of the more incredible wide receiver trends. As always, thank you for reading and continuing to support Dynasty Owner. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Thursday Night Football: Week 4

Jaguars vs Bengals

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Week 4 of Thursday Night Football has arrived. Like last week, this may not be the most anticipated matchup of the season. That’s okay though. My job is to get you excited for this game. We’ll get to it later, but I would be excited to watch several players in this game, especially if I happened to own any of them in Dynasty Owner. Tonight’s game sees the AFC North leading Cincinnati Bengals facing off against the winless Jacksonville Jaguars. For you sports betters out there, the Bengals are favored by 7.5 points and the over/under is 45.5. This means a very healthy implied point total of 26.5 points for the Bengals.

Value of the Game Recap

Last week, I declared my value of the game to be D.J. Moore. After getting close to hitting on my first two weeks, I finally got a correct pick. D.J. Moore was, in fact, the Week 3 Value of the Game. Here is how his terrific night broke down.

Week 3 Actual StatsReceptionsReceiving YardsRushing YardsTDsDOFP
D.J. Moore8126-1020.5

Compare this with the projection that I had for Moore, and you have a pretty accurate prediction.

Week 3 ProjectionsReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
D.J. Moore794122.4

A stat line of 20.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (DOFP) combined with his ultra-cheap salary of $2,792,829 makes him the Week 3 Thursday Night Football Value of the Game.

***It’s also worth noting that Moore had zero receptions after eight minutes left in the third quarter.***

What To Watch For

Similar to Week 1 when I talked about the three wide receivers from the Buccaneers, I am most excited to watch how the wide receiving core’s pecking order works out for the Bengals. Obviously the injury to Tee Higgins throws a wrench in this three-headed monster, but the split between Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd will still be worth watching. Ja’Marr Chase has been sensational this season.  He is WR11 with 220 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns in three games. That is good enough for 56.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. On the other hand, Tyler Boyd has only 34.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. What’s strange is that Boyd has three more receptions and three more targets than Chase. While I admit that I would rather own Chase over Boyd (especially in Dynasty Owner), the volume is there for Boyd. I will be interested to see if/when Boyd has any dominating games, while Chase plays more of the secondary role. Maybe that day is today?

Starters

All the players that I include in this list are players who I think should be started in most, if not all, Dynasty Owner leagues. They are:

Joe Mixon ($12,000,000)

James Robinson ($763,333)

Ja’Marr Chase ($7,547,410)

Marvin Jones ($6,250,000)

Bench Players

In Dynasty Owner, you are able to set a Bench roster. The players on your Bench add 25 percent of their overall total to your final point total at the end of the week. Therefore, it is important to not only consider your starting lineup very carefully, but also consider your Bench. These are the players that I would be comfortable placing on my Bench tonight.

Joe Burrow ($9,047,534)

Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372)

Tyler Boyd ($10,750,000)

Tee Higgins (OUT) ($2,171,696)

D.J. Chark ($1,111,807)

Laviska Shenault ($1,924,017)

***Ignore the Tee Higgins line.  He has been declared out for this game, and he should be removed from all lineups.

Value of the Game

My Value of the Game pick for tonight is going to be James Robinson. Robinson is by far the cheapest player that I have in my Starters category for this game. Robinson is on a contract that is worth $763,333 per year. Robinson had a very disappointing first two weeks of the season. He had only 16.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in those two games total. What is encouraging is that his usage has increased significantly in each game this year. While it was clear that Urban Meyer may not have been sold on Robinson (as evidenced by the drafting of Travis Etienne), I believe he is starting to realize that James is the best running back option on the team.

The truth is that even with an average game, Robinson will still probably be the Value of the Game due to his amazingly cheap salary. Here is the stat line I have predicted for him tonight…

Week 4 ProjectionsRushing AttemptsRushing YardsReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
James Robinson1468549122.7

Thank you all, and I will see you next week.  Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

Incredibly True Statistics – Quarterbacks

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello all. Thank you for continuing to read my articles, and thank you for supporting Dynasty Owner. Today I will be starting a new article series. If you followed my content over the past couple of weeks, you know that I wrote about why you shouldn’t overreact to some performances in this young season. The general idea was that one or two weeks is too small of a sample size to gauge a full season. Two weeks is too small to judge players in Dynasty Owner especially. If you play in redraft, then I can understand the willingness to make important decisions based on a couple weeks, but we are trying to build a team for years to come. Please continue to trust your off-season process and your overall plan.

As I said, today I am going to start a new series. This will be divided into four parts, and it will take a look at some of the more unbelievable statistics that have occurred so far this season. While this isn’t going to be a “Blind Player Comparison” theme, it will use some of the writing styles and tools that I use in those articles. These four articles will hopefully give you a new way of looking at some players, and most importantly, be fun to read. Hopefully, you have as much fun reading them as I do writing them. With that being said, here is my brand new series “Incredibly True Statistics.”

Tom Brady

The first player we are going to talk about today is Tom Brady. After three weeks, Brady is the number one quarterback in Dynasty Owner. Not only is he the QB1, but he holds that spot by more than 7.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Now, I admit that seeing Brady as the top quarterback is not necessarily surprising, but the fact that he had an outstanding game in Week 3 is. Brady went up against one of the top three defenses in the NFL last week as the Bucs played the Rams. The Rams were in control of the matchup from start to finish, but that didn’t stop Brady from posting his third consecutive game with over 37.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Tom didn’t have a particularly strong game when it came to scoring touchdowns, but he made up for that with total yards. Brady passed for 432 yards and earned Dynasty Owners an additional 4 points for a +400 yard passing game. 

The fact that Brady could have a well above average fantasy week while also going against possibly the best defense in the league solidifies him as a must start quarterback for the rest of the season regardless of the matchup. Coming into Week 3, I had several people asking my opinion on whether they should sit Brady. I received questions like, “Should I start Baker over Brady?” “Should I start Tannehill over Brady?” Someone even asked if they should start Daniel Jones over Brady. I answered that I would start Brady over all of those options, but deep down, I wasn’t as confident as I may have appeared to be. Well, those fears have been put to rest. Brady should be a starting quarterback in Dynasty Owner for the duration of the season.

It’s also worth noting that Brady has scored twice as many points as players like Baker Mayfield, Matt Ryan and Big Ben Roethlisberger. Again, this may not be the most surprising statistic in the world, but it continues to show how valuable he can be even in a dynasty league that takes into account salary and age.

Derek Carr

Carr has very quietly become the QB6 in Dynasty Owner. He is averaging 32.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game on the back of a two touchdown per game average. The passing yards have also shown up this year as he is averaging 401 yards per game. Didn’t think it could get any more incredible? Well, Carr is currently the league leader in passing…by 116 yards. Carr finished as QB14 last season, and he has already totaled more than one-fourth of his passing yards for last season. He is playing at a career best pace, and I hope he can keep it up. I’m not going to declare that Carr will finish the season as a top six quarterback, but Dynasty Owners with Carr on their roster have to be happy with his performance.

Let me drop one final statistic on you…

Of the top six quarterbacks in Dynasty Owner, only one has a cheaper salary than Carr ($25,000,000).  That player is Kyler Murray ($8,914,504).  Depending on the matchup, I think Carr may have graduated from the Bench in most Dynasty Owners’ lineups into their Starting lineup.

Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold

Jones and Darnold came into the 2021 season as “wild cards”, at least in my opinion. They were both struggling quarterbacks on poor teams. They were both coming close to the end of their rookie contracts. They both had been paired with top five running backs that they did not have in the 2020 season.

Well, three games into the 2021 season, they are both playing above expectations. They are currently QB12 (Jones) and QB13 (Darnold). Jones may be a little more of a shock for me just because I was higher on Darnold than most this off-season.

Regardless, they are both playing good “fantasy football.” The fact that both players are on rookie (cheap) contracts makes all the difference in their value. Much of Jones’ ($6,416,014) and Darnold’s ($7,561,929) success hinges on the success of their team’s running game. Saquon Barkley has been eased back into action, but he is starting to receive increased touches. His usage has increased every game this season (11 touches, 15 touches, 22 touches). Likewise, Christian McCaffrey (CMC) came into the season healthy, but a hamstring injury forced him out of the game in Week 3. The expectation is that McCaffrey will miss some, but hopefully not much time. There is no sugar coating it. CMC’s absence hurts the Panthers, and it hurts Darnold. Even with the early success, I would consider both Jones and Darnold bench quarterbacks until I can see a greater sample size.

Taylor Heinicke

The biggest quarterback surprise for me this season is Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke was on my radar all off-season. The main reason for this is the fact that Washington has praised him and stated how much they like him as a prospect. We also witnessed some success last year in Week 16. The injury to Ryan Fitzpatrick was very disappointing, but that injury has provided a priceless opportunity for Heinicke.

Through three games this season, he has posted 223 yards per game, 2 touchdowns per game, 15 rushing yards per game, and 22.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. This is good for QB18. Heinicke ($2,375,000) has the third lowest salary of any quarterback in the Top 20. That combination of above average fantasy production mixed with a low salary makes him a very good Bench quarterback candidate.

Aaron Rodgers

Finally, let’s talk about the bad…

Aaron Rodgers is currently the QB20 on the season. Once again, there is no way to sugar coat this. It’s bad for Rodgers, but there is hope. In his three games this season, he is averaging 21.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. If you remove his Week 1 game entirely, then he is averaging 31.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Now, I never want to erase statistics. His 0.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance against New Orleans happened. It matters. But at the end of the season this will be considered an extreme outlier of a game.

Yes, Rodgers is barely hanging onto the Top 20 of quarterbacks. Yes, Rodgers is tied with Jared Goff as the fifth most expensive quarterback you can own in Dynasty Owner ($33,500,000). Yes, I am disappointed and surprised by the start to his season too. After all, he finished as QB2 in 2020. Be patient though. Every quarterback this season will have a bad game. Maybe they won’t have 0.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points bad, but there will be poor performances all around. Give Rodgers time before you give up on him. I’d be willing to bet anyone that Rodgers will be a Top 10 quarterback at the end of this season.

That wraps up the first part of my “Incredibly True Statistics” article. As always, thank you for reading and continuing to support Dynasty Owner. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Thursday Night Football: Week 3

Panthers vs Texans

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello Dynasty Owners. Welcome to Week 3 and Thursday Night Football. Before the season started, I looked at every Thursday night matchup just to get an idea of what matchups will be the most exciting. This matchup didn’t fit that description. Rather, I thought there was a decent chance both the Panthers and Texans would be winless. As it turns out, neither are winless and the Panthers are actually undefeated. The Jets’ matchup was not a surprise win, but them beating the Saints was unbelievable. I really like watching this new Panthers team with Sam Darnold as the leader.

Value Of The Game Recap

Last week I broke down a match-up between the New York Giants and the Washington Football Team. The Football Team came out with the win. In that matchup, I predicted Antonio Gibson would be the “Value of the Game.” The sad reality is that Gibson had a poor performance that mainly stemmed from the fact he had only two receptions for four yards. He also had zero touchdowns. Gibson wasn’t even close to the “Value of the Game” with 9.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Instead, that honor goes to his teammate, Terry McLaurin. Terry was an absolute superstar with Taylor Heinicke delivering the passes. McLaurin had 11 receptions for 107 yards and one touchdown. Truly an amazing game. This was good for 27.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. That output combined with a salary of $961,918 makes McLaurin the Week 2 Thursday Night Football Value of the Game.

What To Watch For

The main thing I’m looking for in this matchup is if Sam Darnold continues to play like a MVP candidate. Darnold currently has four total touchdowns combined with a completion percentage of 68.5 percent. I see no reason why this success cannot continue into this game. This is also one of the few games throughout the season where I would feel comfortable sliding Darnold into my Starting lineup. Obviously this decision depends on your other quarterback options, but I would consider it.

Starters

All the players that I include in this list are players who I think should be started in most, if not all, Dynasty Owner leagues. They are:

Christian McCaffrey ($16,015,875)

D.J. Moore ($2,792,829)

Robby Anderson ($10,000,000)

Brandin Cooks ($16,200,000)

Bench Players

After the starters come the Bench players. In Dynasty Owner, players that are on your Bench count towards your overall team total. Those players receive 25 percent of their fantasy points. Here are the players that I’m not confident enough to start, but should be on your Bench.

Sam Darnold ($7,561,929)

Mark Ingram ($2,500,000)

David Johnson ($5,000,000)

Philip Lindsay ($3,250,000)

Terrace Marshall Jr. ($1,432,372)

Dan Arnold ($3,000,000)

Value Of The Game

My Value of the Game is the cheapest starter who I listed. That player is D.J. Moore. Moore has had a hot start to his 2021 season. This is something that Dynasty Owners, especially Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer, have been waiting on for quite a while. Not only is the high reception total happening (7 per game), but he has been posting high yardage numbers (79.5 per game) with a single touchdown. The Texans look to be a rock solid matchup against the Panthers’ weapons. I do believe that we are starting to witness the beginning of the D.J. Moore breakout, and I can’t wait to see it. Here are my predictions for Moore tonight…

Week 3 ProjectionsReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
D.J. Moore794122.4

This reception and yardage total put him pretty much on track with his yearly average so far. I do think he gets in the endzone in this game as well. I have the Panthers easily beating the Texans by eight points in this game. Start Moore with confidence.

This prediction combined with his very cheap salary of $2,792,829 makes D.J. Moore my Week 3 Value of the Game.

Thank you all, and I will see you next week. Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

Don’t Tilt After Two Weeks

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)


Week 2 has come and gone. With it, there are only seven teams remaining that are undefeated.  Today, I will be finishing up the second half of my “Don’t Tilt” article series. Last week, I brought you an explanation as to why you shouldn’t tilt about players on half of the NFL teams. The other 16 teams will be presented today. Obviously we have a little bigger sample size as I’m writing this after two weeks of action instead of one, but the point still remains. I would not overreact to performances after just two weeks. The only case that I would tend to “give up” on a player is if they are injured and projected to miss significant time. Let’s get into it…

Raiders

The Raiders are one of the teams that are currently undefeated. They have beaten two quality opponents in the Ravens and Steelers. Josh Jacobs had a fantastic Week 1 fantasy finish with 17.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, but that took its toll on his body. He sat out Week 2 with a lower leg injury. I’m not an injury expert, but the expectation is that he will return to action sooner than later. I have little concern about Jacobs long term despite his injury and touchdown dependence.

Chargers

Justin Herbert had his second consecutive game with less than 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He’s actually had two very symmetrical games. Both games included: 31 completions, one touchdown, four rushes, at least one turnover, and passing yards within 1 yard of each other (Week 1: 337, Week 2: 338). Herbert hasn’t shown the big game potential this year yet, but those big games will come. Continue to be patient with one of the best quarterback values in Dynasty Owner ($6,644,688)

Rams

I have little concern for anyone on this Rams’ offense. They are 2-0 and offensively rolling through the competition. Would I like to see more production from Robert Woods? Probably, but you knew what you were getting when you drafted him. You got an extremely consistent wide receiver with a floor of 10 fantasy points, and little upside. This describes Woods, and this year is no exception. He has 12.4 and 12.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the first two weeks.

Dolphins

Speaking of consistency, let’s talk about Myles Gaskin. We knew that if Gaskin could keep the lead running back job for the Dolphins all season that he would be an above average value ($651,694). While his rushing volume has certainly not been there (14 total rushes through Week 2), his receiving volume has been exactly what we expected (9 total receptions through Week 2). I have little concern about Gaskin as he will continue to be the primary receiving option out of the backfield. The one thing I would continue to monitor is Tua Tagovailoa’s injury as the entire offense as a whole will be hampered by any additional missed time.

Vikings

While the Cardinals/Vikings Week 2 matchup was one of the most entertaining of the season so far, the ending was tough to see. The game ended with Greg Joseph missing a 37 yard field goal. Even with their 0-2 start, the Vikings have had a plethora of fantasy production.

PlayerDynasty Owner fantasy points
Kirk Cousins63.2
Adam Thielen45.1
Dalvin Cook38.2
Justin Jefferson31.1

Unfortunately, I think the Vikings will be playing comeback in most games this season which will help all four of these players. I have zero fantasy concerns.

Patriots

Maybe the most disappointing Patriots player from a fantasy perspective is Jakobi Meyers. Not that he’s had a disastrous season, but it’s less than I expected. He is currently averaging five receptions a game (which is healthy), but his yards per game is only 41. Meyers ($588,333) came in as one of the only quality receiving options for the Patriots in my opinion, but his lack of production with the volume is cause for concern. Only 9 of Mac Jones’ 22 completions went to wide receivers in Week 2. Hopefully a more balanced passing approach will take over in New England.

Saints

I admit that I don’t use Twitter as much as I could or should, but when I was watching this week’s Saints/Panthers game I could only think of one thing to Tweet. I said, “Does this Saints’ performance say more about Rodgers, Darnold or Winston?”  And I honestly don’t know the answer. The Saints got blown out 26-7 by Carolina this week. Winston looked not great as he completed only half of his passes and had two interceptions. I would say that the Saints should see more success against the Patriots and Giants over the next two weeks, but I would have said the same thing about the Panthers this past week.

Giants

Speaking of the Giants, I am concerned for Kenny Golladay. I’m not considering dropping him because I am more patient than that, but 17.2 fantasy points through two weeks is greatly hurting any team that owns him. I would do the value math for you, but I’m trying to be as positive as I can in this article. Let’s just say that a player making $18,000,000 with less than nine Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game on average is an extreme negative value.

Jets

I’ll sum this Jets’ section up quickly. Zach Wilson is a rookie. Zach Wilson went up against a top tier defense and paid the price for it. Don’t make any extreme decisions about Wilson based on one bad game.

Eagles

In the same way that Zach Wilson had a bad week against a good defense, Miles Sanders did the same. No fantasy owner wants to see their RB1 or RB2 matched up against a traditionally top rushing defense. While the 49ers may not statistically be a top rushing defense yet this year, it is a little deceiving because they gave up 82 rushing yards to Jalen Hurts. The truth is that the 49ers are limiting opposing running backs to below average games. Sanders was no exception.  Expect much more than his Week 2 fantasy performance (6.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) in the next two weeks as he plays Dallas and Kansas City.

Steelers

I don’t think I would ever be able to trust Ben Roethlisberger as my starting quarterback in Dynasty Owner, but he is a perfect candidate for a Bench quarterback. Does anyone remember my conditions for a Bench quarterback? It is a player who has a cheap salary ($14,000,000) with middle of the road production (15.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game). Big Ben fits that description, and I would love to have him on my Bench for the whole season.

***This is a quick reminder that (here at Dynasty Owner) players you put on your Bench will add 25 percent of their fantasy points to your overall total.***

49ers

I loved Deebo Samuel coming into the 2021 season. I thought he was undervalued and under drafted in most leagues. It seems like his production so far would be enough for me to take a victory lap. The truth is that we have to wait and see how the rest of the season shapes out.  Yes, 23.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game is a blistering pace, but I don’t think that number is sustainable given the 49ers commitment to the run game and the total number of weapons in San Fran. I like Deebo to finish as a Top 20 wide receiver overall in 2021, but I don’t expect him to be Top 10.

Seahawks

Tyler Lockett (57.8) has more than doubled D.K. Metcalf’s (27.3) Dynasty Owner fantasy points this season. The truth is that this is just a small sample size. There will be games like the first two where Lockett has more receptions and receiving yards, but the same will be true for Metcalf. Don’t get discouraged. Continue to hold Metcalf proudly. Maybe send out a trade offer for him as well if you think his Dynasty Owner is panicking.

Buccaneers

The Buccaneers cruised to a second win on the season thanks to Tom Brady’s five touchdown passes. If there was any concern about Mike Evans last week, surely that was washed away with his Week 2 performance. Instead, Antonio Brown was left out this week. He had only one reception for 17 yards. Continue to play him as a Bench wide receiver for the time being.

Titans

As I watched this game, I was preparing myself to write about Derrick Henry. He was on his way to a very disappointing fantasy week at halftime. In fact, through two games this year, he only has 43 rushing yards on 22 attempts in the first halves. In the second halves, he has 25 rushes for 176 yards and 3 touchdowns. Henry has done this for much of his career. He gets better as the game progresses and as the defenses get tired.

Football Team

Now we come to one of the hardest pills for me to swallow in this young season. Antonio Gibson has had a bad start.  He has less than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in each of his first two games. I am not panicking, and neither should you. The one statistic that gives me a little anxiety is the fact that Gibson only had only two receptions in Week 2 while J.D. McKissic had five  I think I’m going to have to temper my reception expectations for Gibson for the time being, but my overall outlook has not changed.

Well, that’s it. That’s all I have today. As always, thank you for reading and continuing to support Dynasty Owner. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube.  Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Monday Night Football Preview: Week 2

Lions vs Packers

By: Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl)

As Week 2 starts to wind down I am sitting here watching the fantastic Chiefs vs Ravens game while having a drink and soaking it all in. Week 2 was beyond wild, and I can only imagine more of the same is in store for Monday Night Football. Lamar Jackson flips into the end zone for a go-ahead TD just after typing that last sentence.

In last week’s Monday Night Football game, I pegged Lamar Jackson as the Value of the Game, and it turns out I was too optimistic about him as he only put up 19.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points when I pegged him for 34.9 points. While I did come close on a lot of Jackson’s stat line, I was expecting him to do quite a bit more in the redzone and had him accounting for 2 TDs instead of just one. He also missed gaining 100 yards by a little bit (14 yards) and missed the 100 yards rushing bonus. He also had three fumbles (2 lost) that I didn’t factor in. Ty’Son Williams was the ultimate value in last week’s game finishing with 18.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points on a salary of only $660,000.

What to Watch For

I am pretty sure everyone can guess what I am watching for in tonight’s game because you are likely watching for the same thing. In Week 1, last year’s MVP Aaron Rodgers looked like he did not want to be playing football for the Green Bay Packers anymore. Rodgers showed terrible body language all day last Sunday and there is no way his teammates did not take notice. Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks to ever pick up a ball and if there is anyone I feel can turn on the proverbial switch as we say, it is Rodgers. I am more curious to see how his teammates respond to his poor play and body language come Monday night. Aaron Rodgers was so bad in Week 1 he had only 0.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

In Week 2, Aaron Rodgers and company get a friendly matchup with the Detroit Lions defense which has to be a welcoming site for the Green and Yellow. If the Packers struggle tonight against the Lions, there will be plenty of questions to answer in Green Bay, Wisconsin come Tuesday morning. The Lions come to town after an exciting Week one game with the 49ers which ultimately led to a loss for the team from Mo-Town. From a Lions perspective I am looking to see if they can be competitive for an entire game or if they are going to be a team who has a few scoring outbursts throughout this season. The last couple things I am looking at for the Lions is to see how their running back room continues to play out as far as a split between Jamal Williams and D’Andre Swift. Finally, I am excited to see how this young Lions receiving room will play with Tyrell Williams ruled out for the contest.

Jay’s Monday Night Prediction

I like the Green Bay Packers in tonight’s game and think the final score will be:

Image result for detroit lions logo
3823

Over/Under Projections

Lions

PlayerPositionSalaryProjected PointsOver/Under
Jared GoffQB$33,500,00020.5Over
D’Andre SwiftRB$2,134,72816.6Over
Jamaal WilliamsRB$3,000,0009.1Over
Quintez CephusWR$899,8228.3Over
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR$1,066,3138.0Under
T.J. HockensonTE$4,955,30614.0Over

Packers

PlayerPositionSalaryProjected PointsOver/Under
Aaron RodgersQB$33,500,00032.2Over
Aaron JonesRB$12,000,00019.6Over
A.J. DillonRB$1,321,4588.7Under
Davante AdamsWR$14,500,00022.4Over
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR$669,38810.2Over
Robert TonyanTE$3,384,00011.1Under

I am expecting this to be a revenge game of sorts for Aaron Rodgers and the only reason he is getting revenge on the Lions is because that’s who is on the schedule after a horrible game last week. If Rodgers comes out and looks the way he did last week against the Saints, we may end up seeing Jordan Love at quarterback for the foreseeable future for the Packers. A bad game is one thing but last Sunday seemed to be more than that in my opinion. The Lions showed they will not quit under coach Dan Campbell last week against the 49ers and expect more of the same fight out of them this week, though I don’t think the final score will be all that close. I see the Lions as a team who gets beat up early in games but also a team who will fight hard enough to get back into games when teams take their foot off the gas pedal. The Packers will not be one of those teams after last week as they have something to prove. Look for a big-time bounce back for the Packers Big Three – Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Davante Adams.

Jay’s Dynasty Owner Games of the Week

Each week I will pick two games that are close in score and will likely be decided during Monday Night Football. If you happen to find yourself in this situation on Sunday night, please get ahold of me on Twitter (@jaypoundsnfl) and I will gladly feature your game here.

Game 1 – League #27446

Graphical user interface, website

Description automatically generated

Fields of Dreams (Austin Seibert on Bench left to play) – Clinging to an 8.3-point lead heading into Monday night, Fields of Dreams has only Lions’ kicker Austin Siebert left to play on their Bench, meaning they will only get 25% of whatever Seibert scores. Fields of Dreams has a slim chance to win this week, but sometimes that is all you need in fantasy. Fields of Dreams pulls out the victory by a point or two.

SKOL Vikings (Robert Tonyan as a Starter left to play) – Ironically it comes down to a Packers player for the Vikings manager to win the game on a Monday Night comeback. SKOL has the Packers TE Robert Tonyan left to play for their team, and I don’t expect them to be happy about the Packers player who they secretly cheer for after Tonyan fails to hit his projected total leaving SKOL Vikings on the wrong end of things…. Just like my Steelers against Derek Carr and SKOL’s Vikings against the Cardinals.

Game 2 – League #31625

Graphical user interface, website

Description automatically generated

Bloated Sack of Protoplasm (D’Andre Swift as a Starter and Austin Siebert on Bench left to play) – Ultimately this loss for Bloated will fall on Jameis Winston, who only scored them 7.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, and the Saints offense who looked every bit as inept as the Packers did in Week 1. Bloated has a great shot to pull out the win on Monday night with D’Andre Swift yet to play. After the games we saw Aaron Rodgers and Swift have in Week 1, it will not surprise me if I end up wrong on this prediction.  Bloated ends up losing as Rodgers balls out on the Lions defense.

Joeybertino (Aaron Rodgers as a Starter left to play) – As I said earlier, I think this is a revenge game of sorts for Rodgers and I feel Joeybertino will end up happy as Rodgers rights his wrongs against a bad Lions defense. I will offer up a little insider advice on this one for our user Joeybertino. If Rodgers has another terrible week, use your Amnesty Provision and pick up either Derek Carr or Ryan Tannehill (they are free agents in your League, I looked) to attempt to save your season after an 0-2 start on the back of the 2020 NFL MVP.

Value of the Game

Finally, we have our weekly Jay’s Value of the Game, brought to you by Dynasty Owner. Yea that was supposed to sound like a sponsor. In this week’s contest I have my Value of the Game as the man with two last names – Marquez Valdes-Scantling. MVS comes in at a salary south of $700,000 meaning if he has a couple catches and finds the end zone he is going to be tough to compete with in terms of Dynasty Dollars per point value. I am looking for MVS to have a much better day than a few short catches and a touchdown as I have him grabbing 3 short catches and a bomb for a touchdown leaving him with the stat line below.

Winner – Marquez Valdes Scantling

Jay’s Projected Stat LineReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
Marquez Valdes-Scantling4120122.0

I also considered Swift and Cephus as my Value of the Game but the upside and cheap salary of MVS was too much to pass up.

Be sure to check out my Free Agent Auction article and video that will be released on Tuesday afternoon before Free Agent Auction bids are processed on Wednesday at 5 AM. Don’t forget about Steve Van Tassell’s weekly Tuesday recap article and Friday preview article and video, as well as Matt “The Jerk” Morrison’s Wednesday article and video plus his Thursday Night Football preview article. Don’t forget to check out Dynasty Owner on YouTube!

I hope everyone had a great Week 2! Thank you for reading and good luck on your 2021 Chase for the Ring!

Don’t Tilt After One Week

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Good day Dynasty Owners and boy is it finally good to say, “football is back!”  We witnessed many great games this weekend including the opening game of the season, the Cowboys/Buccaneers game. I will break that game down further in my next Thursday Night Football preview article.

If you remember, one of the first articles I wrote last season was titled “Don’t Tilt After One Week”. Well, in keeping with the tradition, I’m going to be writing a similar two-part series over the next couple of weeks. I will discuss either players that I think overperformed or underperformed in the first couple of weeks, and why you shouldn’t overreact to this small sample size. I know it’s not easy. It’s human nature especially after we have built up so much hype throughout the off-season, but I’m here to tell you, “do not tilt after one week.” I will talk about one player from each team, and break all 32 teams into two separate articles. Let’s get into it…

Cardinals

It was an all-around productive game for the Cardinals. Three players (Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and Christian Kirk) had two or more touchdowns. However, I would advise that you don’t worry too much about the lack of production by the running backs. The volume was there for both backs. Chase Edmonds ($728,090) had 12 carries and James Conner ($1,750,000) had 16 carries, but the stout rush defense by the Titans only allowed 116 rushing yards between the two. There will be brighter days ahead for both backs, although it looks like the backfield will be close to a 50/50 split.

Falcons

When you look at the Falcons’ box score, it’s easy to see why there could be panic among Falcons’ Owners. There were poor performances across the board. Matt Ryan, Mike Davis, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, and Kyle Pitts all had below-average games. I am completely unconcerned with Davis, Ridley, and Pitts. Those three will be the focal point in the offense moving forward.  Ryan may leave a little more room for concern due to his age (36) and history of hot and cold streaks.

Ravens

Lamar Jackson had an uncharacteristically bad game against an average defense.  He had 235 passing yards, 12 rushes, 86 rushing yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 fumbles. The fumbles are by far the most disappointing part of his day. In Dynasty Owner, a fumble is minus 1 point and a lost fumble is worth an additional minus 2 points. In the end, Lamar finished with 19.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (DOFP).

Bills

The Bills went up against one of the top defenses in the league so it’s no surprise that they didn’t have the greatest offensive performance. That being said, Josh Allen ($5,295,760) and Stefon Diggs ($14,400,000) still had decent games. It may not be what their Dynasty Owners wanted, but Allen went for 19.9 DOFP and Diggs went for 15.9 DOFP. Again, not the greatest, but they didn’t destroy your winning chances. I have zero concern for either player moving forward especially as they start to play division rivals. My level of concern is much higher for the Buffalo running backs.

Panthers

Most of the Panthers’ top weapons had a very healthy game. Christian McCaffrey was no exception. He posted a line of 21 carries, 98 rushing yards, 9 receptions, 89 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns. This was good for 27.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. For CMC, I’m going to make the opposite argument that I usually make in Don’t Tilt articles. I wouldn’t expect this type of performance out of McCaffrey every week.

Now, I understand what most of you are thinking. “CMC has done this for his whole career with this type of volume.” Yes, that is true, but that is kind of my point. I don’t know how much longer he can do it. I believe that he will continue to be one of the most (if not the most) productive running backs in the league, but I would not expect, nor would I want my franchise running back touching the ball 30 times a game for a 17 game season. Expect fantasy greatness, but don’t expect 30 touches every week.

Bears

The fact that Allen Robinson hauled in only 6 receptions in a blowout loss is somewhat disappointing.  He saw 11 targets, 6 receptions, 35 yards, and 9.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. This is nowhere near what you want from your WR1 that costs you $17,880,000 per year, but there is hope. The biggest hope I see coming is the idea that Justin Fields will probably be starting for the Bears sooner than later. Andy Dalton showed little willingness to move around the pocket or tuck the ball and run. This is exactly what was needed on Sunday Night against a top-tier Rams rushing defense. The fact that not one player tallied more than 45 receiving yards tells me everything I need to know moving forward. This was poor quarterback play against a strong defense. Look for a rebound game against the Bengals next week.

Bengals

Speaking of the Bengals, they had a sensational game on Sunday afternoon. The Bengals had zero turnovers and absolutely dominated the penalty yards against the Vikings. The Vikings had 12 penalties for 116 yards while the Bengals had only 3 penalties for 15 yards. That is a winning formula. It also seems like all the main guys had solid games. In terms of Dynasty Owner fantasy points, Joe Burrow had 25.2, Joe Mixon had 27.0, Ja’Marr Chase had 20.9 and Tee Higgins had 15.8. The one downside from a fantasy standpoint was Tyler Boyd. Boyd was poised to be the “safe” option among all the wide receivers for the Bengals this year. Well, he only saw 3 receptions for 32 yards. I think this is the way the season will go for the Bengals. It’s likely only two of these receivers will have above-average games each week, and it will not be easy to predict who it will be from week to week. I have my doubts that Burrow can support three top-end wide receivers in the way that Dak Prescott seems to be able to do. Regardless, continue to start Boyd.

Browns

It was a rough ending to a great game for the Browns, but I suppose that’s how it usually ends up when you play the Chiefs. The most disappointing fantasy performance was by Baker Mayfield. While the passing yards were there, the scoring certainly wasn’t. Baker totaled 321 passing yards and 1 interception which was good for 15.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. I labeled Baker as a perfect Bench quarterback coming into the 2021 season. He has a low salary ($8,170,745) and middle-of-the-road production. I suppose this performance fits the description. I anticipate more upside games out of Baker with more than the 28 pass attempts he had in Week 1.

Cowboys

I talked about the Cowboys game at length in my Thursday Night Football preview article. As far as I’m concerned, there was only one disappointment in that game, and it was Ezekiel Elliott. I’m sure many of you could guess I’d talk about Zeke. The truth is that Elliot was given only four first half carries. He posted a very disappointing 5.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He was not the focal point of the offense as Dak attempted 58 passes, which makes him currently the league leader. I wish I could say that I’m not concerned about Zeke, but I’m not fully convinced this year will be different than last year. However, I have hope for a few reasons.

First, Zeke should have Dak this whole season which will keep them in more competitive games and give him more scoring opportunities. Second, Dak will not be able to throw 58 times a game and expect to win the majority of the time. They will need to rely on the running game more and that revolves around Zeke. I know it’s not easy seeing a $15,000,000 running back take less than 6 points into Week 2, but please be patient.

Broncos

The most unfortunate part of the Broncos game is that they lost Jerry Jeudy to a high ankle sprain. The injury timeline has yet to be established, but he will be sidelined for a good chunk of the season. The overreaction advice here is not to give up on Jeudy. I feel this advice is important especially when we look at him from a Dynasty Owner perspective. Jeudy still has three years left on his contract that is worth $3,798,243 per year. Even if he misses half the season, I would still not trade him for less than what he’s worth. On the contrary, I would look to buy Jeudy for cheap if the price is right. I’d be offering a 2022 2nd round for him.

Lions

There were a lot of positives that came out of Detroit’s game against the 49ers despite them losing. Jared Goff, Jamaal Williams, D’Andre Swift, and T.J. Hockenson all had great games. I would say the most impressive performance was T.J. Hockenson with 8 receptions, 97 yards, and 1 touchdown. I’m really trying not to overreact in a positive direction on this one, but it’s hard. Hockenson looked great on Sunday, and he should continue to be the most targeted non running back on the team. We are witnessing the breakout we all waited two years to see. This is likely the year T.J. jumps very close to (if not in) the top tight end tier.

Packers

I am really struggling with the Packers because there was almost nothing positive to take away from their 38 – 3 loss to the New Orleans Saints. The highest scoring fantasy player for the Packers was Davante Adams. That isn’t surprising since he was projected to be the highest-scoring wide receiver in Dynasty Owner this year (347.7). Rather, it’s surprising that he led all Packers players with just 10.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. I don’t want to read too much into this game. The Saints’ defense is elite, and they showed that on Sunday afternoon. A nicely timed Lions’ matchup next week should right the ship for Green Bay.

Texans

The Texans nearly doubled up the Jaguars by beating them 37 – 21. I was most impressed with the workload that was given to Mark Ingram. He had 26 carries for 85 yards and a single touchdown. This was good for 14.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.  His 3.3 yards per carry average may not turn any heads, but the sheer volume he received made up for it. That being said, I wouldn’t expect this same number of carries every week. I expect David Johnson and Philip Lindsay to become more involved as the season moves on. Plus, I expect a much more pass heavy approach as they start to play more competitive teams.

Colts

Parris Campbell was targeted only 3 times in Sunday’s loss to the Seahawks. What’s strange is that only 14 of Carson Wentz’ 38 pass attempts were targeted at wide receivers. This trend cannot continue if the Colts plan on winning many games. Expect Michael Pittman Jr. (5.9 DOFP) and Parris Campbell (3.4 DOFP) to rebound in the upcoming weeks, at least for the Colts’ sake.

Jaguars

Nothing frustrated me more during Week 1 than watching James Robinson have only 8 touches.  He finished with 7.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. It’s worth stating that in the games Robinson played in 2020, he never had less than 9.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. I wish I could say that I’m not worried, but I am. I had Robinson in the FLEX position in one of my leagues, and I’ve already decided to bump him out for Antonio Brown next week. I haven’t given up on JRob, but I’m going to need to see Urban Meyer’s willingness to use him more before he’s back in my Starting lineup.

Chiefs

Wow!  I mean, what else can I say about the Chiefs? It really shouldn’t be surprising anymore.  This was a very typical Chiefs game. They put up video game type stats (Patrick Mahomes: 43.6 DOFP, Tyreek Hill: 37.1 DOFP, Travis Kelce: 25.6 DOFP) and won a close game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire may not have gotten as much use as some of us may have liked, but it was mostly game script issues. Nothing to tilt about here.

Well, that’s the first half of my “Don’t Tilt” series.  If you take only one thing from this article, let it be this point…

We have only witnessed one week. This is an incredibly small sample size compared to what we are about to witness for the rest of the season. I have never given up on a player solely because of one or two weeks. Bear through the weeks and trust your draft process and strategy. Give yourself at least four weeks before you start to make critical decisions about your team, especially in Dynasty Owner.

I thank you all for reading and for continuing to support Dynasty Owner. Look for my video that will give a little more personal touch to my content. Next week, I will be presenting about all of the teams I did not get to this week in my “Still Not Tilting” article. I’ll be back tomorrow with my Thursday Night Football preview article. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube.

Thank you all.  Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

Contract Breakdowns: AFC Conference Recap

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello Dynasty Owners, and welcome to the “final stretch.”  At the time of this article’s release, we will be 10 days away from the start of the 2021 season. The season will begin on Thursday, September 9th in a game that will pair the Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs the Dallas Cowboys. Like most of you reading this article, I can’t wait to get back to real NFL football.

As for today’s article, I’m going to recap some of the more important points I made in previous Contract Breakdown articles. This week I’m going to focus on the AFC and next week will be the NFC’s turn. Let’s start by talking about the AFC East first.

Contract Breakdown Recap

AFC East

In the Jets article, I did a blind player comparison with Corey Davis and Jamison Crowder. The takeaway from the comp was that Davis is an underrated dynasty player because he’s on a new team, is a late breakout player, and joins one of 2020’s worst NFL teams. Despite these issues, I project Davis to finish the season as a WR3. The early pre-season connection between Zach Wilson and Davis also gives me hope. Don’t let the 12.5 million dollar salary scare you away.

I compared Zack Moss to Ronald Jones in my Bills article.

PlayerAgePoints/GameRushYardsTDsSalary
Z. Moss237.81385925$1,153,079
R. Jones2313.72191,1179$1,767,977

(All stats are based on a full 16 game average from the 2020 season)

The main takeaway is that Moss (3 years – $1,153,079) will command a heavier workload in 2021 than he did in 2020. He also has two more years remaining on his current contract than Jones does. Odds are that Ronald Jones will outscore Moss this year, but those extra years of a cheap salary is extremely valuable. At this point in their careers, I would rather own Moss.

For the Patriots article, I compared Damien Harris to Devin Singletary.  I obviously did this prior to the news that Sony Michel was traded. While I don’t see the Michel trade making a large impact on Harris’ production, it will allow him to have more touches. The main takeaway from the comparison is that I would draft Harris over Singletary in Dynasty Owner, and nothing in the off-season has changed my mind. I would feel very confident going into the 2021 season with Harris as my third running back (top Bench running back).

The Dolphins article had a very tough comparison, and it was one that I struggled with as I was writing it. Not really much has changed for either player since publishing that article either. The comparison was Tua Tagovailoa vs Daniel Jones…

PlayerAgePoints/GamePass YardsRush YardsTDsSalary
T. Tagovailoa2317.12,90217422$7,568,859
D. Jones2415.13,36349114$6,416,014

(All stats are based on a full 16 game average from the 2020 season)

In the end, I wanted Tua due to his age, overall upside and the fact that he has a longer salary than Jones. That being said, I do project Jones to outscore Tua in the upcoming season.

AFC North

The AFC North articles started with the Pittsburgh Steelers article where I lamented about James Conner. I was pretty long-winded about how Conner came into fantasy relevance, and my feelings on him, especially in the 2018 season. Much of my breakdown centered around the idea that he would be leaving the Steelers, but I didn’t speculate much on who his new team would be. It turns out that he was signed to a one-year contract a week after the Steelers’ article was published. While I still like Conner as a player, I am concerned that he will not receive enough volume with Arizona to be an RB2. In my opinion, Chase Edmonds will be the lead back for the entire year. This is not to say that Conner will have no dynasty relevance at all.  He should be (and is) rostered in every Dynasty Owner league due to his cheap salary ($1,750,000) and injury upside. I wrote this at the end of the Steelers article in April, and I think it sums up my opinion on Conner very well…

“So, what do we do with him? We wait. I currently own Conner in my BETA league, and I am fine holding him until a new place of employment is discovered.  He will still be on a lower-end running back contract, but Dynasty Owners need to accept the fact that he will not return his 2018 value ever again.”

The main player I touched on for the Ravens article was Gus Edwards. Edwards re-signed with the Ravens after he accepted a second-round tender. That tender comes with a contract of 1 year – $3,384,000. While I don’t see Edwards taking an exceptional amount of work away from J.K. Dobbins, I did say “Expect Edwards to continue to be a thorn in the side of J.K. Dobbins Owners.” (Editor’s note: This article was written prior to the J.K. Dobbins injury.)

When I wrote the Bengals article, I mainly gave a broad overview of some of the key free agents they had coming into the 2021 off-season. These players included A.J. Green, John Ross, Samaje Perine, and Brandon Allen. The majority of the breakdown I talked about Brandon Allen and how you may be able to get some spot starts out of him at the beginning of the season due to Joe Burrow’s continued rehab. Well, after four months has passed, it looks like Burrow is on track to play Week 1 against the Vikings. Still hold onto Allen as an insurance piece, but obviously don’t count on him to make an impact this year.

Here is what I wrote about Rashard Higgins in the Browns article

“Like the majority of free agents this year, Rashard Higgins has been signed already. He re-signs with the Browns for a single-year contract. It is worth $2,377,500.  Higgins found decent success after Odell Beckham Jr. went down with a season-ending injury in Week 6. In the games that Higgins played in, he totaled 7.5 plus fantasy points in all but two games. 7.5 isn’t a fantastic performance, but more often than not, that was his floor. In fact, he had very healthy fantasy performances to the tune of 12.1, 17.0, 21.5, 14.8 and 11.6 fantasy points. Unfortunately for Higgins Owners, OBJ looks to be returning to the Browns in 2021. This will bump Rashard down to the WR 3 on the team and limit the total volume he will receive. He should be rostered in all leagues as he has shown his ability to step in for an injured superstar.”

Really nothing has changed since I wrote this opinion. OBJ and Jarvis Landry look to come into the 2021 season healthy. While I like Higgins as a player, he will be buried behind more talented players on the depth chart.

AFC South

The AFC South was one of my favorite divisions to write about because I added a trade aspect to all four article breakdowns. Trades are a big part of Dynasty Owner, but I feel like sometimes they don’t get enough attention. The added component of salary and contract length make trades very unique in this format.

In the Colts article, I quickly did a contract breakdown on Carson Wentz (4 years – $32,000,000).  Here is the summation of my thoughts…He is in a disaster of a contract (especially value-wise for Dynasty Owners). He is on a new team with a below-average receiving core. He injured his foot late in the offseason, had surgery, and has missed valuable training time with his new team. Before I go on a rant, let me be brief by saying he should probably not be rostered in DO, and I would trade him for just about anyone or any picks if you can find a league mate that wants him.

I wrote this about Anthony Firkser way back in March in my Titans article

Firkser is 26 years old and will be a restricted free agent. He will make more money in 2021, but don’t expect it to be a lot. I’ll put him right around 3 million per year for now.

Trade Advice: With Firkser being available in one-third of Dynasty Owner leagues, I would check the Free Agent Auction first. If he is available and you have an extra spot, then I would pick him up. There’s no doubt he’s worth rostering for now. I can’t advise sending a trade for him. There’s just too much uncertainty with his many possible career paths. Hold if you own, and stay away if you don’t.

Firkser re-signed with the Titans to the tune of 1 year – $3,000,000 eight days after I wrote that article. Another thing that has changed is the fact that he jumped from 66 percent rostered to almost 98 percent at the time of this writing. It looks like those that held onto him are going to have a starting tight end for very cheap. Well done.

There were six total free agents, both Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA) and Exclusive Rights Free Agents (ERFA), that I decided to speculate about in my Jaguars article. Of those six, only a single player re-signed with Jacksonville.  His name is Dare Ogunbowale.  Here is an update for where all six landed…

PlayerPrevious StatusTeam
Keelan ColeUFAJets
Chris ConleyUFATexans
Chris ThompsonUFAFree Agent
Dede WestbrookUFAVikings
Tyler EifertUFAFree Agent
Dare OgunbowaleERFAJaguars

There isn’t a whole lot to talk about here. Dare is the only player remaining, and he will be buried on the depth chart behind James Robinson and Carlos Hyde.

The final team in the AFC South is the Houston Texans. The Texans article happened to coincide with the opening of free agency so I really didn’t have much space to talk about actual Texans. The one who I did mention was Will Fuller. At the time, we knew that Fuller was leaving Houston for Miami, but we didn’t yet know that the Dolphins were going to draft Jaylen Waddle.  Regardless, Fuller will be sidelined for Week 1 due to a six-game performance-enhancing substances (PES) suspension. This suspension spans two seasons. Fuller is currently owned in 84.5 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues, and he looks to have a productive season with a $10,625,011 salary.

AFC West

For the AFC West articles, I incorporated my Top 10 players for each position. The Chargers article was appropriately paired with the Quarterbacks Top 10 because Justin Herbert came in as my number one quarterback. He barely beat out Kyler Murray for the top spot. In the end, the extra year on his contract and the more than two million dollar savings per year is enough to make him the number one quarterback moving forward.

RankPlayer2020 DO Finish2021 DO Proj FinishYears RemainingSalary
QB1Justin Herbert953$6,644,688
QB2Kyler Murray642$8,914,504
QB3Joe Burrow24133$9,047,534

The Chiefs article highlighted the Top 10 running backs moving forward. In my initial write up, I didn’t have any Chiefs’ running backs included on this Top 10. Unfortunately, CEH slips into the Top 10 with Cam Akers’ injury as Akers was listed as RB5 back in June. With that adjustment, this is what my current Top 10 Dynasty Owner running back list looks like…

RankPlayer2020 DO Finish2021 DO Proj FinishYearsSalary
RB1Jonathan Taylor633$1,957,287
RB2Christian McCaffrey5515$16,015,875
RB3Nick Chubb1161$1,845,774
RB4Austin Ekeler2893$6,125,000
RB5Najee HarrisN/A114$3,261,862
RB6J.K. Dobbins24163$1,432,359
RB7Saquon Barkley12271$7,798,688
RB8Dalvin Cook325$12,600,000
RB9D’Andre Swift18203$2,134,728
RB10Clyde Edwards-Helaire21143$2,705,393

(Editor’s note: This article was written prior to the J.K. Dobbins injury.)

For the Broncos and Raiders article breakdown, I combined both teams into the tight end Top 10.  As you could have guessed, both teams have a tight end ranked on this list. Darren Waller still comes in as my TE1 due to his cheapish salary (at least compared to Kelce and Kittle) and his elite production. If I was drafting in a startup, I would take Waller first before any other tight end. To follow this up, I had the Broncos’ primary pass-catching tight end, Noah Fant, as my TE7.  In my opinion, there are very clear tiers between the Top 10 tight ends.  Here are the tier breaks…

RankPlayer2020 DO Finish2021 DO Proj FinishYears RemainingSalary
TE1Darren Waller223$7,450,000
TE2Travis Kelce115$14,312,500
TE3George Kittle1935$15,000,000

This is Tier 1. I could listen to and make an argument for either of these three to be the top ranked tight end.

RankPlayer2020 DO Finish2021 DO Proj FinishYears RemainingSalary
TE4Kyle PittsN/A54$8,227,623
TE5Mark Andrews641$863,290
TE6T.J. Hockenson362$4,955,306

This is Tier 2.

RankPlayer2020 DO Finish2021 DO Proj FinishYears RemainingSalary
TE7Noah Fant882$3,147,680
TE8Irv Smith Jr.22122$1,449,609
TE9Mike Gesicki7111$1,652,981
TE10Dallas Goedert2071$1,406,068

This is Tier 3. These tight ends start to get into the “crapshoot” area. You have already missed out on the elite fantasy players, but there is a chance one or all of these guys could break into the top tier within a few years.

Thank you for reading, and look out for my video that pairs with this article. Next week I will recap my breakdowns from the NFC. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.

TheJerk