Tight ends in general and Giants TE Darren Waller ($17,000,000), in particular, will be the topic of conversation today as I continue my New Contract Spotlight series. More specifically, I will talk about his massive contract increase as well as what this means for his production and value for the 2023 season.
The plan is for this series to take us right up to the start of the regular season. I will also throw in some segments about the updated Top 5 or Top 10 from each position as it will likely change between now and September. Also don’t forget that my overall Dynasty Owner rankings will be coming out later this off-season. For now, let me finish up my Top 5 rankings with the tight ends…
Top 5 Tight End Rankings
Player
Team
Age
Salary
Years
Mark Andrews
BAL
27
$14,000,000
3
Kyle Pitts
ATL
22
$8,227,624
2
Travis Kelce
KC
33
$14,312,500
3
Pat Freiermuth
PIT
24
$1,507,045
2
Dalton Kincaid
BUF
23
$3,356,756
4
I found that the tight ends were the easiest list for me to put together. I think Andrews, Pitts and Kelce are clearly the top three choices even in a dynasty, value format. I then rounded out the rest of the Top 5 with young talent that has upside. Let’s talk about it.
Mark Andrews moves up to number one for the 2023 season. If you read my article last year, you know that he was TE2 while Kyle Pitts held the top spot. I still like Pitts from a career standpoint, but I see the upside of Andrews over the next four years to be much higher. Lamar Jackson ($52,000,000) has returned to the Ravens, and they look to be more of a pass happy offense than in previous years. I can, with confidence, say that Andrews would be the first tight end selected by me in Dynasty Owner startup drafts.
Kyle Pitts drops one spot to TE2 this year. This is what I stated last year around this time…
“Kyle Pitts is my number one tight end at this point in the off-season, and I don’t see that changing. To be honest, I think Pitts has the biggest amount of separation between a top position and second place. We know that Pitts has three years remaining on a middle-tier tight end contract. We also know that he is (remarkably) only 21 years old, and he will start the 2022 NFL as a 21 year old. He is currently the highest drafted tight end in Dynasty Owner ADP (23.0), and he is projected to finish as the TE3 this season. This is a no-brainer pick for me. It’s very rare that you get to draft a non-quarterback that has a high potential for a 10+ year career. This is exactly what you’re expecting out of Pitts.”
(Published July 1, 2022)
I’ll be honest…Pitts’ season last year really left a bad taste in my mouth. It wasn’t what he did so much as what his offense couldn’t provide for him. Pitts was often overthrown on a team that already had a very low passing volume. I look for the Falcons’ offense to improve this year, and I have Pitts as a Top 5 TE in 2023.
I shocked myself when I saw that I had Kelce as my TE 3 for value this year. Afterall, he is 33 years old, and he has a Top 3 highest salary for tight ends…But he just doesn’t stop. Kelce was far and away the best TE in 2022 where he beat the next closest tight end by more than 90 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (94.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to be exact). I don’t care what your salary is at that point. If you are decimating the fantasy competition then neither your salary nor your age matters. If Kelce can be even 80 percent of what he was in 2022 over the next two years, then I may even have him ranked too low. Draft Kelce with confidence and hopefully he will deliver you a Championship in the next couple of seasons.
Freiermuth stays in the same position he was in last year. Pat is a solid pass catching tight end on a cheap rookie salary with two years remaining. He won’t compete for the TE1 anytime soon, but he will finish in the Top 10 at a little more than $1,500,000 per year. Don’t spend a high pick on him, but if he falls to the middle of the sixth round, he should return value.
Finally, we have the top rookie tight end…Dalton Kincaid. There are several historical aspects working against Kincaid. As many of us know, rookie tight ends very rarely make a fantasy impact in their first couple of seasons. Kyle Pitts was no exception to that statement. It is usually a losing proposition to bet on rookie tight ends. The second thing working against Kincaid is the current Bills’ depth chart. There is a good chance that he will be third or maybe even fourth in targets for the 2023 season. Players like Stefon Diggs ($24,000,000) and Gabe Davis ($998,595) will almost certainly have more targets and receptions. Players like Dawson Knox ($13,000,000) and Khalil Shakir ($1,001,787) will also rival Kincaid for the third most targets and receptions for Buffalo.
Other tight ends that I briefly considered for the Top 5 list include…
T.J. Hockenson ($9,392,000)
George Kittle ($15,000,000)
Dallas Goedert ($14,250,000)
New Contract Spotlight
Darren Waller ($17,000,000)
The write up for Waller today will be fairly short. He finished as TE31 in 2022 as he missed almost half of the season (8 games). We also know that he has since switched teams as he now plays for the New York Giants. The Giants assumed the contract extension that Waller signed with the Raiders for an average of $17,000,000 per year and that makes him the highest paid tight end in the NFL and in Dynasty Owner. Waller joins a team that is desperate for pass catching playmakers. The Giants had no reliable receiver for the entirety of the 2022 season.
So, what is the outlook for Waller? Well, he is obviously not going to be winning any value awards, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be an asset to your Dynasty Owner team. Waller is currently projected to finish as the TE4 this year. There is a very good chance that he leads all Giants’ players in targets and receptions. He is rostered in almost 96% of Dynasty Owner leagues. I have zero shares of Waller in any of my leagues just because I don’t see the value of having a non-top tier tight end at over $15,000,000. I would much rather roster a player like Chigoziem Okonkwo ($1,041,085) or Greg Dulcich ($1,314,785) who are being drafted around the same spot as Waller (ADP 112.0 for Okonkwo, 124.9 for Dulcich and 127.5 for Waller).
As always, thank you for reading. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.
Dynasty Owners, I am finally back! It seems like it has been forever since I last put out an article so let’s get back into the swing of things. Rookie drafts have pretty much come and gone, and we now have a full ADP on every player as well as some type of expectation for the players freshly added to your roster. Speaking of drafts, don’t forget that Dynasty Owner has unlimited startup drafts happening over the next couple of months. Be sure to join one and don’t forget to give your affiliate code to anyone you get who is new to Dynasty Owner and joins a startup draft, so you get your $49 referral fee! Unfortunately, there is not much news around the NFL that will keep you all entertained any longer so let’s jump into today’s article instead of boring you to death. By the way, pre-season football starts in just over a month!
In today’s article, I will be covering eight players (two per position other than kicker) available in the Free Agent Auction who I believe can help contending teams win. Rebuilders can target these players as well for extra trade bait during the season. The only requirement for a player to make this list was that they had to be under 75% rostered in Dynasty Owner leagues.
Quarterback
Sam Darnold (SF) – 1 year/$4,500,000 (70.73% rostered)
In an example like this, quarterbacks who produce are extremely tough to find in a trade let alone in the Free Agent Auction. I could have put two or more very expensive veteran quarterbacks on this list but in reality, only a select few of you have the salary cap space, or even a clear path to picking up a pricey veteran QB. During his career, Sam Darnold has been a downright awful quarterback outside of a 3-5 game stretch in Carolina last season. While Darnold alone isn’t an appealing option to anybody, Darnold coached by Kyle Shanahan is an intriguing pair for me because of the latter. Since becoming an offensive coordinator in the NFL, Shanahan has done nothing but instantly elevate the entire quarterback room wherever he has coached. Heck, Shanahan coached the Browns to a 7-4 start with Brian Hoyer ($2,250,000) under center and Hoyer hasn’t won a game since I was in high school. I know you may be thinking “but Jay, Darnold is not even the starter”. I would tell you that you are correct, but there is a real chance Brock Purdy ($934,252) is not ready for the first quarter of the season. If that scenario plays out, Darnold will become an instant value for Dynasty Owners. If Darnold sees the field, he will look much better than he has since his USC days. Call it a flag plant if you will.
The second and only other reasonable option at quarterback is none other than Cardinals backup Colt McCoy. McCoy should see the field for a few games to start the season while his teammate Kyler Murray ($46,100,000) works his way back from injury. As I mentioned with Darnold, McCoy is not a sexy option, but he will suffice as a Bench quarterback (25% of his points added to your total score) for a few weeks while users look for the next replacement quarterback to emerge. I am not expecting McCoy to do much as a starter, but a few Bench points each week sounds much better than a goose egg. Heck, how many times have you won a fantasy matchup by a couple of points? Colt McCoy can easily win you a matchup early in the year.
Up next, we have a pick that could look really silly in the near future. At the moment, the Buffalo Bills do not have a surefire running back and are currently set to open the season with James Cook ($1,458,014) as the lead back. While I do not hate James Cook, I also do not see him being an every down back at this level. What does all of this mean? It means that journeyman Latavius Murray will see a ton of work once again. Somehow this guy always seems to find himself as a starter at least a few times a season and when Murray does start, he tends to produce. I would not be surprised one bit if we see a timeshare in Buffalo should they stand pat. My biggest concern for Murray right now is the potential signing of free agent Dalvin Cook ($12,600,000). Should Dalvin end up with his brother in Buffalo, Murray won’t see much work barring injury.
I know this selection will make many of you cringe, but I feel Zeke has another solid fantasy season or two left in him. At the current moment, Zeke carries a $15,000,000 price tag, but he is a guarantee to get a significant pay cut when he signs with his new team. My prediction for Zeke would be in the range of $2,500,000 per season which is much more reasonable for Dynasty Owners to fit under their salary cap. In the past, I have preached about how rebuilding Dynasty Owners should always have salary cap space and this is exactly why. If you are rebuilding, I would recommend picking up Zeke and holding him until he gets a serious pay cut. Once he signs with a new team at a reduced rate, I would then move him for a draft pick that you will earn for simply having cap space in the off-season. Regardless of where Zeke signs, I am expecting him to see over 125 touches and quite a bit of red zone work making him well worth a reduced salary. As far as contenders with minimal salary cap space are concerned, you will likely have to wait and try to outbid your league mates once Zeke signs a deal.
Wide Receiver
Darius Slayton (NYG) – 2 years/$6,000,000 (45.12% rostered)
Darius Slayton quietly had a really good 2022 season under new Giants head coach Brian Daboll. While 2022 was not a career year for Slayton, he did finish just 27 yards away from setting a career high in receiving yards, though he did struggle in the red zone where he only produced two scores. The Giants did not bring in or draft any big-name receivers this off-season which should only mean a big season is in store for Slayton. At $6,000,000, it is a little more than I would like to pay him, but he is a solid player who you should be able to count on week in and week out, plus a second year in Daboll’s system should only benefit Slayton moving forward. If you have the cap space and Slayton is available, I would definitely put in a bid for him and see what happens.
Robert Woods (HOU) – 2 years/$7,625,000 (46.34% rostered)
In the second wide receiver spot of the day, we have longtime veteran Robert Woods. Many people will likely shy away from Woods because of his struggles with the Titans in 2022, but I believe there is still plenty of gas in the tank and the issue was more fit and quarterback play than anything else. Woods has always been a player who works hard and does the right thing, which makes him someone youngster C.J. Stroud ($9,069,811) should lean on early and often because of his experience. Woods is a little pricey for a gamble, but there aren’t many other places where you can get a team’s number 1 receiver without paying up big time, especially when that receiver has an extremely talented quarterback under center. Woods won’t have any huge games for you, but should he return to his Rams’ pre-2021 form, he will be a player you can throw on your Bench and forget about.
Up next, we have 2022’s number 20 ranked tight end, Hayden Hurst. While I am not expecting Hurst to outperform his numbers from last season by a ton, I do believe he will make for a nice Bench/bye week fill in tight end. Call me crazy but I am expecting better numbers out of Hurst in 2023 despite the downgrade at quarterback as Hurst won’t have to share the field with two elite receivers. I also believe the fact that Hurst is playing with a rookie quarterback will help as I believe he will end up as Bryce Young’s ($9,488,768) safety net early in the season. At $7,625,000, Hurst is an expensive safety net but sometimes you have to spend big to provide quality depth for your roster.
Robert Tonyan (CHI) – 1 year/$2,650,000 (66.26% rostered)
In the final spot of the day, we have Chicago Bears newcomer Robert Tonyan. I know the Bears have Cole Kmet ($1,894,445) who came on strong at the end of last season, but I believe Tonyan is the better fit with QB Justin Fields ($4,717,989), and it won’t be long before we see it play out on the field. The Bears added D.J. Moore ($20,628,000) and Tonyan in the off-season and no one else of importance leaving plenty of targets to come Tonyan’s way this season. If Fields elevates his game further in 2023, there will be at least one or two value players to be had from this Bears’ offense. Grab them now while they are cheap, it won’t hurt much if you’re wrong.
Thank you all for reading and be sure to check out all of the other awesome Dynasty Owner content coming your way. Stay tuned for articles from Matt, Nick, Steve and myself as well as the Dynasty Owner podcast and the Dynasty Owner Livestream. Stay safe out there and good luck on your 2023 Chase for the Ring!
Hello Dynasty Owners. My New Contract Spotlight series will continue today as I talk about a massive salary increase that started impacting Dynasty Owners’ salary cap this off-season. The player is Deebo Samuel ($23,850,000). I will get to the big details later, but Deebo had a down year in 2022. He finished as the WR40 with 162.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. This finish was actually pretty good value for his salary at the time. He was making less than $2,000,000 per year. The draft capital you invested to obtain Deebo (either through trade or draft) did not provide a very good return though. Dynasty Owners with Samuel on their rosters were looking for a repeat of 2021 when he was the WR3 and ended as one of the best values on the entire platform.
Like I said, I’ll get to the full breakdown on Deebo later. First, I’m going to continue my pre-season Top 5 rankings. Wide receiver is on the docket for today’s article.
Top 5 Wide Receiver Rankings
Player
Team
Age
Salary
Years
Ja’Marr Chase
CIN
23
$7,704,910
2
Justin Jefferson
MIN
24
$3,280,701
1
Garrett Wilson
NYJ
22
$5,138,502
3
Chris Olave
NO
23
$4,817,969
3
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET
23
$1,066,313
2
Chase swaps places with Justin Jefferson when you compare this to my list last year. Here is my rationale for putting Chase #1…
Younger
One more year on rookie deal
Same upside as Jefferson
I project they will be within 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points of each other in 2023.
Taking all of those points into account, I have to rank Chase higher. If you told me that Jefferson will have 30.0+ more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than Chase this year, then I could understand the argument for having Jefferson first, but I don’t see it shaking out that way. While Jefferson should be the higher volume and more consistent asset, Chase will make up for that with long, home run plays.
The fact of the matter is that you can’t go wrong with whichever of those two you have at number one. As it turns out, the Dynasty Owner consensus disagrees with me. Jefferson is currently ADP 2.2 while Chase has an ADP of 3.4.
All those points I made for Chase shouldn’t take anything away from Jefferson. If this was strictly a 2023 fantasy finish, then I would agree that Jefferson is the pick. But as you know here at Dynasty Owner, we constantly search for value. A young, stud wide receiver on his rookie deal is so valuable that Jefferson falls behind because his rookie deal is up after this season. Either way, I expect Jefferson to put up 1,500+ receiving yards and 8+ TDs once again.
Garrett WIlson is a new face to this Top 5 list. I can see the argument that I’m too bullish on him, but I expect him to take a significant leap up from where he was in 2022. Last year, Wilson finished as the WR19. He was WR19 with Zach Wilson ($8,787,670), Mike White ($4,000,000) and Joe Flacco ($3,500,000) facilitating his receptions. He now has Aaron Rodgers ($50,271,667) throwing him the ball. I don’t think this needs to be said, but I’m going to say it anyway…Rodgers is BY FAR the best quarterback that has ever delivered passes to Wilson. It’s obviously not even close. We also, historically, see a production jump for sophomore wide receivers. I am very excited to see what Wilson will do this year, and I project a Top 7 WR finish.
Chris Olave falls right behind Wilson. I can see the argument against Olave as well as the argument for others to be in his place. I will say this…the wide receiver list was much harder for me to formulate than the other three positions. There is so much great young receiving talent in the NFL that I literally went through more than 10 iterations of these final two spots. At the end of this segment, I will mention all the players that I considered yet were left off the list. The truth is that Olave is 23 years old. He has three years left on his rookie deal. He finished as the WR25 last year despite poor QB play and playing in only 14 games on Dynasty Owner.
The final player on my list is Amon-Ra St. Brown. He is one of the greatest values in all of Dynasty Owner, and I expect that this season will be no exception. He was WR7 last year and he projects to be WR9 this year. That combined with a salary barely above $1,000,000 and two more years on his rookie deal makes him the fifth most valuable WR.
As I said earlier, there are a handful of players that I considered putting in this Top 5. Here are the honorable mentions…
Tyreek Hill ($30,000,000)
CeeDee Lamb ($3,502,503)
Jaylen Waddle ($6,771,498)
Devonta Smith ($5,035,348)
Cooper Kupp ($26,700,000)
New Contract Spotlight
Deebo Samuel ($23,850,000)
Here is my repeated recap from earlier in this article…
“Deebo had a down year in 2022. He finished as the WR40 with 162.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. This finish was actually pretty good value for his salary at the time. He was making less than $2,000,000 per year. The draft capital you invested to obtain Deebo (either through trade or draft) did not provide a very good return though. Dynasty Owners with Samuel on their rosters were looking for a repeat of 2021 when he was the WR3 and ended as one of the best values on the entire platform.”
So, in addition to this information, what do we need to know? Well, the fact that his salary has decupled (increased times 10) is very significant. He is now getting paid $23,850,000 per year in Dynasty Owner. The question becomes, “Is he worth rostering?” The overwhelming majority agrees that he is worth rostering as a Dynasty Owner team in 99.19 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues continue to employ him on their team. The fact is that I agree with the consensus here. Deebo is just too explosive, athletic and talented to drop. He doesn’t need high volume (which he hasn’t gotten recently) to put you ahead of your opponent in the WR2 slot. This is what I think about Deebo going forward…
First off, he is going to remain a low volume player. There are just too many top tier mouths to feed in San Francisco currently. He is competing with Christina McCaffrey ($16,015,875), Brandon Aiyuk ($3,132,836), and George Kittle ($15,000,000). In fact, last year Deebo had fewer receptions and receiving touchdowns than all three of these players. Yes, he did miss four total games, but injuries have been an issue for him in the past as well. I don’t expect that to be the case this year, but Dynasty Owners need to come to terms with the idea that they will likely never see a year like he had in 2021.
Here is my projection for Deebo this season…
Receptions
Total Yards
TDs
DOFPs
66
1,201
9
240.1
This puts him as a mid-level WR 2. That’s exactly what I think he is at this point in his career and with the teammates he currently has. I would be confident in starting Deebo as the second best receiver on my team, but I’d be hesitant for him to be leading my Dynasty Owner crew.
In my next article, I will wrap up my Top 5 Rankings series, and I will continue with the New Contract Spotlight aspect. As always, thank you for reading. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.
Why do I get the feeling I don’t want to read this?
Our hero wrote enough words to cover a week’s worth of bathroom breaks.
It was a lot of words.
And all of it basically told us why his first team still stinks.
I mean, kind of.
And now he’s going to throw a whole new slew of words at you to describe why he’s built a mediocre team that isn’t going to realistically contend.
I disagree with that assessment, but we’ll see what other people think.
If they even read it.
True.
Before we jump into it, I’m going to broadly cover the way that I’m looking to rebuild these teams. The key points:
Don’t rely on exact player rankings. Tiers work best. Nobody can tell you who’s going to come in fifth versus sixth in any rankings system. It’s better to have players in tiers. It also allows for more flexibility in seeking trades, rather than not wanting to trade the fifth best player at a position in your rankings for the sixth best player at a position. You’ll likely have those players on the same tier and can then look to make the trade work best for you with other players or picks in the deal while not feeling like you lost out.
Rely on specific tiers.
Your QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1, and K1 players should be players that are going to reliably produce at a high level for your team.
Flex Level and Level 2 players may or may not contribute consistently, but will be players you can call into duty when needed and feel comfortable doing so.
Level 3 players typically should be players with promise who you can keep for years, or who have talent with very little opportunity in the moment.
Build your player grid. Make sure you get enough Level 1 players to fill your Starting lineup, enough Level 2 players to fill your Bench, and Level 3 players for your Practice Squad.
You just summed up 3,000 words in a few bullet points.
I’m pretty proud of that.
I mean, couldn’t you have cut the length of that last article by about 95%?
Well, sure, but then there’s the nuance and the insight…
And the self-importance…
Let’s just agree that the summary did the job, and move on into the second team.
TEAM UPDATE: PRE-ROOKIE DRAFT
You’re going to see a chart with two sides here. One shows the roster as I inherited side by side with the roster I have now.
TEAM #2 – LOVE OF THE GAME LEAGUE
TEAM NICKNAME: THIS YEAR’S BUBBLE GUM
On the nickname thing, send me some better nicknames to use. Hit me up on Twitter. I have my account at the beginning and end of this article.
You are to nicknames what Picasso was to professional wrestling.
What the heck does that mean?
It means you stink.
Oh. Okay. I guess.
Onto the analysis!
This team went a whole different direction.
Pos
Player
Annual Salary
Years Left
Player
Annual Salary
Years Left
K1
Brandon McManus
$4,300,000
2
Brandon McManus
$2,000,000
1
K2
Wil Lutz
$4,050,000
1
Wil Lutz
$4,050,000
1
K3
Zane Gonzalez
$2,250,000
1
Joey Slye
$1,200,000
1
QB1
Joe Burrow
$9,047,534
1
QB2
Mac Jones
$3,896,588
2
Jared Goff
$33,500,000
2
QB3
Baker Mayfield
$4,000,000
1
Baker Mayfield
$4,000,000
1
QB3
Jameis Winston
$4,000,000
1
Kyle Trask
$1,383,834
2
EXTRA
Andy Dalton
$5,000,000
2
RB1
D’Andre Swift
$2,134,729
1
D’Andre Swift
$2,134,729
1
RB1
Tony Pollard
$10,091,000
1
RBFL
Dameon Pierce
$1,118,858
3
RB2
Miles Sanders
$6,350,000
4
Khalil Herbert
$902,677
2
RB2
James Conner
$7,000,000
2
James Conner
$7,000,000
2
RB3
Antonio Gibson
$1,233,159
1
Chase Edmonds
$1,232,500
1
RB3
Ke’Shawn Vaughn
$1,188,999
1
Malik Davis
$750,000
1
RB3
Travis Homer
$2,000,000
2
Demetric Felton
$910,285
2
EXTRA
Leonard Fournette
$7,000,000
0
Ty Chandler
$989,710
3
TE1
T.J. Hockenson
$9,392,000
1
TE2
Tyler Higbee
$7,250,000
1
Cade Otton
$1,123,486
3
TE2
Tommy Tremble
$1,231,608
2
Colby Parkinson
$991,360
1
TE3
Jelani Woods
$1,343,118
3
Brevin Jordan
$958,046
2
WR1
DK Metcalf
$24,000,000
3
DK Metcalf
$24,000,000
3
WR1
Stefon Diggs
$24,000,000
5
CeeDee Lamb
$3,502,503
1
WRFL
Drake London
$5,383,617
3
Christian Kirk
$18,000,000
3
WR2
Tyler Boyd
$10,750,000
1
Allen Lazard
$11,000,000
4
WR2
WR3
DeVante Parker
$7,625,000
1
Ben Skowronek
$891,131
2
WR3
Donovan Peoples-Jones
$870,402
1
Romeo Doubs
$1,085,979
3
WR3
Wan’Dale Robinson
$2,046,292
3
Quez Watkins
$866,166
1
EXTRA
Tutu Atwell
$1,477,175
2
Donovan Peoples-Jones
$870,402
1
EXTRA
Kendrick Bourne
$5,000,000
1
TOTAL SALARIES
$146,499,544
TOTAL SALARIES
$151,873,343
Team #2 – 2023 Outlook Before
Team #2 – 2023 Outlook After
2023 Draft Picks
1.01, 3.05, 3.07
1.09
# of Players for 2023
27
27
Amount Under Cap
$10,860,455
$5,486,657
Dynasty Dollars
5.8 million
6.9 million
Amnesty Provisions
2
2
Team #2 – 2024 Outlook Before
Team #2 – 2024 Outlook After
2024 Draft Picks
1st (1), 2nd (1), 3rd (1)
1st (another team), 2nd (0), 3rd (1)
Players Signed for 2024
14
13
2024 Salaries
$89,147,256
$101,745,148
Summary: Open your eyes. Look up to the skies and see… this team may have a run in it.
Flags fly forever.
Flags fly forever. Stealing from Bill James now?
Let’s see who recognizes that quote.
But seriously, this team has the tools. I’d like another RB and WR to really fill up the roster, but if James Conner isn’t completely washed up, I might be able to make it work. And that’s before I take a player with the 1.09 rookie draft pick, or use that pick to remedy that RB or WR issue in another way.
And you traded the 1.01 rookie draft pick this year, so basically you traded Bijan Robinson ($5,489,634) away too.
I did. We’ll get to that in a minute. I’m sure it’ll be controversial. In fact, let’s get to the trades, starting with Bijan.
THEY GET
I GET
Mac Jones ($3,896,588)
Joe Burrow ($9,047,534)
Tyler Boyd ($10,750,000)
Allen Lazard ($11,000,000)
Dameon Pierce ($1,118,858)
Tony Pollard ($10,091,000)
2023 Pick: 1.01
2024 Pick: Round 1
There goes Bijan.
First, the team that I got the next year’s first rounder from is likely going to not be a very winning team. So, I’m hoping that I can recoup some draft value next year.
However, the chance to get a legitimate Top 3 QB (in my estimation), a Top 10 RB (that might be his floor), and a productive WR going into a great situation along with that potentially high pick was too good to pass up.
In giving up Mac Jones and Dameon Pierce, I’m giving up two players who could pop along with the 1.01. It might be that next year I look back and wonder why I did all this.
But with the cap space I’m going to have next year, I can afford to keep Burrow on his next deal. If he keeps his trajectory going, I might just have him for another 10 years.
I’m happy with what I got, but I’d love to hear if you think I undersold.
THEY GET
I GET
Antonio Gibson ($1,233,159)
T.J. Hockenson ($9,392,000)
Wan’Dale Robinson ($2,046,292)
CeeDee Lamb ($3,502,503)
Drake London ($5,383,617)
Tyler Higbee ($7,250,000)
2023 Pick: 3.05
2024 Pick: Round 1 (my pick)
2025 Pick: Round 2 (my pick)
This is the “Flags Fly Forever” trade. Meaning that when you win a title, it’s your title forever.
When I dealt Bijan, I was committing to a strategy where I push for the title this year. In giving away London and two first rounders for two players whose contracts will be up at the end of the year, I’m making that very apparent.
T.J. Hockenson is my #2 TE this year. Full stop.
You’ve never heard of Mark Andrews ($14,000,000). Or George Kittle ($15,000,000). Or-
I know. But look at what Hockenson did in Minnesota after being traded. Now he has an off-season to know that offense.
When you look at it from the perspective of getting a top TE and top WR at affordable contracts for this year, that gives me a lot of flexibility to make other moves to help with depth.
You saw my analysis of Drake London in the last article. This deal may, again, bite me come next year. But I’ll have the cap space to make up for mistakes. Or keep Hockenson on the team. Either way, I’m fine where I’m at.
Flags fly forever.
THEY GET
I GET
Miles Sanders ($6,350,000)
Chase Edmonds ($1,232,500)
Stefon Diggs ($24,000,000)
Christian Kirk ($18,000,000)
2024 Pick: Round 2 (my pick)
Khalil Herbert ($902,677)
2025 Pick: Round 1 (my pick)
Romeo Doubs ($1,085,979)
Cade Otton ($1,123,486)
2023 Pick: 1.09
This is an upside trade. First, I wanted a first round pick to be able to wheel and deal. At 1.09, I’ll be able to get one of the top four rookie WRs to round out my receiving corps, or I’ll be able to trade down and get a couple more picks to bring more youth to the team and help for next year.
Help for next year is what this trade did. Three cheap players who are going to have significant roles and have multiple years in Herbert, Doubs, and Otton. We’ll have to see about Edmonds.
I gave up Stefon Diggs. However, the Lamb pickup gave me the space to make that decision. And the talk out of Bills camp has made me nervous about Diggs. We’ll see if I gave up too much here.
Miles Sanders is certainly a good running back; I just don’t know about his new location. And the high first round rookie draft pick in 2024 that I got in an earlier deal made me comfortable trading the picks away that I did to get this year’s first round rookie draft pick.
I can see where Diggs was too much to give up. But the cap flexibility and the depth that I desperately needed were a nice addition.
In all, we’ll wait and see on this deal.
I ended up dropping both Leonard Fournette and DeVante Parker (along with others of less consequence) and acquired a few Level 3 players who have some more upside in the Free Agent Auction. Plus, I got a nice savings of $2,300,000 when Denver released Brandon McManus and he signed a 1 year deal for only $2 million with Jacksonville. That helped with acquiring a couple of those cheap Level 3 dart throw players in the Free Agent Auction.
In a minor trade, I also dealt the 3.07 rookie draft pick this year for Kyle Trask, to get that Baker Mayfield handcuff and assure me of having a backup quarterback in some form or fashion.
Commentary: This orphan team is ready to rebel. So, you think you can stop this team and spit in its eye? You can’t do that to them, baby.
Still going with the Bohemian Rhapsody thing. I dare you to fit Scaramouch, Scaramouch, will you do the fandango?
I think I just did.
Oh. Tricky. That’s meta.
Seriously, though, this team is ready to roll.
Draft Strategy
I have 1.09 rookie draft pick this year and that’s about it. I’ll be happy picking a top 4 rookie WR in that spot. I’d also be happy trading down and getting more picks. Or even trading out of the draft for a top RB, potentially. Having the 1.09 pick gives me a lot of options, and a lot more fun is to be had with this team in the rookie draft.
Final Analysis
I’m happy where this team landed. It has upside for this year, and this would be a pretty crazy turnaround from where the team was at the start to any type of contention.
As with anything, all of this analysis is just conjecture until the season plays out. That goes for my positivity and some others’ negativity about the moves I showed up there.
Drake London… you’re gonna pay for that. Twice.
I just may. Next time I write it’s likely that the rookie drafts for both teams will be over, and I’ll do a recap of those drafts and the 800 picks I made with the other team. This draft won’t be as exciting, but we’ll still dive into both drafts. I’ll cover the next steps for both of these teams, and how off-season news alters my team projections and player levels.
I’ll leave you with this. If you like what you’ve read, then take what’s been written here and go do it yourself.
Again… it’s TEN BUCKS FOR AN ORPHAN TEAM! A whole season of fun for less than a movie ticket!
If you don’t like what you’ve read, then ignore all this junk and go do it better yourself. Either way, go get some orphan teams and have some fun. And when you do, remember to be flexible. Go with your reads, don’t rely on the herd.
When it comes to consensus opinions, nothing really matters.
Anyone can see.
Nothing really matters…
Not again.
You know how it ends, you do it!
Fine. To meeeeeeeee…
Any way the wind blows.
Message me on Twitter (@aobgsports) and tell me what you think about all this. I would also appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. The content there is terrific, and well worth the five seconds it’ll take to follow and subscribe.
This was an eventful couple of weeks for our two orphan teams. I’m hoping that you had as much fun with your teams as I did with mine.
In my case, given the preferences of the individual Dynasty Owners in each league, the teams took two very different directions. That’s part of the fun of picking up orphan teams, and why I encourage you all to snatch those teams up for just $10 in the Dynasty Owner Orphan Store. Not just because you can do your rebuild and show me how much better you are at this than I am, but because it’s just plain fun and a tiny price to pay for seasons worth of fun and bragging rights (and maybe even real money).
Today, we’re going to talk about a couple different things. First, the flexibility needed to rebuild a team and one possible way to construct your value system for maximum flexibility. Second, we’ll go into where my first orphan stands now. This is the fun part about taking on an orphan. That initial big bang of moves that gets you to the skeleton of the team you’re going to run with.
And trust me, for both teams it was a very big bang. Especially for the one that we’re covering in this article. We’ll move to Team 2 with the next article.
You wrote too much, didn’t you?
No! Of course not! Covering only one team is a strategic move! It’s meant to… uh…
You wrote too much.
Fine. I split it into two parts because I wrote too much.
But if you leave this article with nothing else sticking in your head, I’d like for you to leave with this. The key to rebuilding orphan teams is to be easy come, easy go. Little high, little low.
Aren’t you going to finish the line? Any way the wind blows, doesn’t really matter…
I don’t think I need to.
No! You can’t just leave that last line hanging! It’s just two words! Doesn’t really matter…
I think I will leave it hanging. Just to annoy you, oh invisible guy typing in the middle of this article.
That’s evil! You can’t!
Well, I’m going to do it anyw-
TO ME! TO ME!
Feel better now?
Sure. Whew. Okay, go on.
Back to my point. You have to be flexible. There may be a plan that you’ve dedicated some time to, but when opportunity knocks, it’s important to leave your plans behind and face the truth.
That’s where flexible player valuation comes in.
Before I get started, I have to say that this is not a case of me telling you that this is the only way, or the best way, or the optimal way to build a roster.
It’s important that you see the methodology here. Nothing is done in a vacuum, so when trades and pickups happen, you’ll be able to see my thought process a little better. This is how I do it, and I’m hoping that some of you will see the value in this and either steal this method entirely, or take some of the suggestions and think about how you’re rebuilding those orphan teams that I know you’re going to run out to get. Just to test your new strategies out.
Or they can ignore it.
Well, yes. And if you think this is stupid, if you think I’m wrong, then I’ll have a way to get a hold of me near the end of this article and you can tell me so.
I’m sure they will. If people got past the Bohemian Rhapsody stuff, they’re really desperate for content and/or human interaction.
I’m going to carry on, carry on as if nothing really matters now.
So, whether it’s the NFL Draft or fantasy football drafts, there is a concept for player valuation based on tiers, rather than hard rankings. There are a couple advantages to using a tier-based system:
How often are pre-season ranking projections correct when it comes to picking who is going to be valuable in any given season? In the aggregate, Average Draft Position (ADP) has been found to not be predictive of end-of-season success. No qualifiers in that statement. No “except when”. Period. End of discussion. It is not predictive. A great study by Fantasy Labs actually shows that ADP rankings have become even less predictive over the last few years. (see the study here). So much of our idea of “value” comes from the herd mentality and common ADP. But the truth is that no hard ranking system is going to be able to tell you who the #1 person will be versus #2, #3, or even #10.
Hard ranking systems lend themselves to less flexibility in free agency and trades, and they do not take into account the team’s needs. I have a team with three absolute top WRs, yet I consistently got a variety of trade offers from another Dynasty Owner with the main pieces being they give me Mike Evans ($16,500,000) in exchange for J.K. Dobbins ($1,432,359). This is an extreme example, but if I had Evans rated higher than Dobbins in a hard ranking system, and if I were to be wedded to my hard ranking system, I might figure out a way to make that work. However, in my case I have Evans and Dobbins on the same tier. And when I look at players at those positions at those tiers on my team, I quickly see that trade would leave me with a deficit at RB.
You have Evans and Dobbins on the same level? Are you feeling alright?
Let’s not focus on specific player values right now. In fact, that kind of judgment is exactly my point. I guarantee that there are people reading this right now who are saying the opposite. They can’t believe I’d have Dobbins lower than Evans.
It makes no sense to have a hard ranking system when rankings are so subjective. Rather, especially as you rebuild an orphan team, it’s important to make sure that you’re building a system that can provide you with the most opportunities to find trades that help your rebuild. If you’re holding hard and fast to a specific valuation, it’s much harder to make those trades.
So, no values. Everything’s equal. That sounds like some hippie stuff.
That take sends shivers down my spine.
You really do commit to the bit.
Body’s aching all the time.
Okay now, get on with it.
Right. Back to the point. What exactly am I talking about here? What is the core of my strategy? You actually got introduced to it a little bit last week, and now we’re going to expand on it. I’m talking about formulating a Dynasty Owner roster to fit this grid:
Level 1 Players (K1, QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1): These players are guaranteed contributors at the level of a championship-level starting player at that position. Or they are potentially that level of player and are on an affordable contract for beyond this season, so that they could reach that potential within the duration of that contract.
The subjectivity begins in a couple of ways here. First, “championship-level”. I’m going to pick on Jerry Jeudy ($3,798,244). He is currently projected as #24 at the WR position on the Dynasty Owner platform. Given a 12-team league, with two starting WR per team, #24 would be a starting WR, so you would think he would be a Level 1 guy. But here are Jerry Jeudy’s career stats to this point:
Year
Receptions
Receiving Yards
TDs
Ranking
Dynasty Owner Fantasy Points
2020
52
856
3
WR46
155.6
2021
38
467
0
WR90
84.0
2022
62
818
6
WR27
179.9
Given the state of the Broncos’ quarterback room, and the fact that they just drafted Marvin Mims ($1,517,159), those numbers don’t add up to someone who’s going to be a championship level starting WR. Maybe you can make a case for a FLEX position if you believe in Jeudy’s upside, but I don’t see him as a Level 1 player.
The subjectivity of this approach is apparent. There may be someone who has Jeudy as a breakout candidate, others who view him as barely rosterable. It’s really up to you. Some people may have only 5 QBs, 10 RBs, 15 WRs, 3 TEs, and 5 Ks who fit this category for them. Some may double that. It’s all in your estimation of what is a championship-level player, given your beliefs and the context of your league.
Level 2 Players (K2, QB2, RB2, WR2, TE2): These players are people who can adequately fill the starting role on bye weeks without tanking your stat lines, and who are either consistently good contributors, or who have upside but need to show it before you move them up to Level 1.
A good example here is Zay Flowers ($3,509,109). He’s fast, and he’s made a lot of plays in college. However, he got drafted to the Ravens, and they don’t have a remarkable record with productive WRs. He also is small, and it’s not certain whether that size will hamper him in the NFL. He has all the potential in the world, and he may pop, so he’d be a good person to have on your Bench. You can collect 25% of his fantasy points on the Bench due to Dynasty Owner’s scoring rules. Have I mentioned before how awesome that rule is, by the way? It encourages more engagement than a best ball league, but it allows you to profit at least a bit when a player has an unexpected, good day. And it makes people put players on their team who can get points if they want to win, rather than hanging onto a bunch of flyers on the Bench.
Quarterbacks are a little different here. Because QB is so thin, I tend to grade out any quarterback with a guaranteed, or near guaranteed, starting role as a QB2 at minimum. Same with kickers. Again, that’s my subjective choice and your opinion may differ.
Level 3 Players (K3, QB3, RB3, WR3, TE3):These players are likely not going to contribute many points on a week-by-week basis. These are your handcuffs, your QBs in precarious situations, your rookie kickers who may or may not win a job. The idea here would be to get players who may not have a role now, but if they get a role, they’ll go up to Level 2 or even Level 1. The key here is to bank on upside. If you have players at Level 3 who have a high salary, or who you can’t project to possibly be a real contributor, those players are expendable and should be moved in favor of higher-upside players. Remember, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. A Level 3 to you may be a contributor to someone else. Trading is your friend.
Also, QBs have a different rule here. I recommend keeping anyone who can get into games at QB on your roster. Even if they have minimal upside. If you have roster space and need to have a QB, Colt McCoy ($3,750,000) would fit in this category. Do I think he’s going to produce? No way. But if he gets some starts and if one of my top two QBs gets hurt, I might get a few points from him on my Bench at least. Every little bit helps.
There are a couple position classifications that warrant explanation:
RBFLEX/WRFLEX: In the grid, I have positions for both an RB and a WR as a FLEX player, even though we only start one in Dynasty Owner leagues. This is a way to ensure that there are enough players on a team who are either starter-level, or near-starter level, in order to contend. FLEX players would be someone like the aforementioned Jerry Jeudy, if you thought he was due to break out. Someone who you’re not certain will provide you championship-level outputs, but who you have a substantial belief in for that season.
EXTRA: There are three spots for “EXTRA” players. These can be left blank, or be filled with additional Level 3 players in the event that your team needs them due to a shortage of Level 1 or Level 2 players at a position. For example, if I only have one Level 1 RB and one Level 2 RB, I might choose to add three “EXTRA” RBs at Level 3, hoping that one of my many Level 3 RBs will end up contributing.
Two more notes:
These values are fluid. As more information arises, players will move between levels. Before the NFL Draft, it should only be the very top performers who are listed on Level 1. The NFL Draft can change a lot, and players who look like guaranteed contributors may get competition that could knock them down a level.
You should be projecting your roster a year from now, and maybe have an eye out on two years from now. Remember that football is a fickle game. With a few notable exceptions, it’s difficult to project two years into the future. I’m not saying to ignore long-term strategies. If you have a long term rebuild (and I definitely do with the team we’ll get to here in a moment), start by projecting one year into the future and getting longer-term deals when possible. However, if your long-term strategy relies on your roster projection a couple years out, you’re relying on very incomplete information.
Constantly re-evaluate players, then re-evaluate your roster. When you find gaps or when circumstances change, work the Free Agent Auction and throw out trades.
So that was a lot.
Too much?
Probably. If someone’s reading this right now they should get a prize.
I think that’s a great idea. If you’re reading this right now, go to www.dynastyowner.com and pick up an orphan team for only $10! What a prize!
You fit that in nicely.
Thanks.
Look, I’m not the end-all, be-all of fantasy football strategy. I don’t have all the answers. Everything you’ve just read is a suggestion, and I would love to hear how you do it differently. Near the end of this article, I’ll share my Twitter information where you can get in contact with me and tell me how you go about building your roster.
Or how wrong you are.
I’m sure there will be a bit of that too.
Before I get to the first team, there is something I want to put out there.
That people can buy an orphan team for the cost of a burrito bowl with avocado at Chipotle.
Sure. That’s important.
Can’t mention it too many times, right?
Right.
But here’s what I really want to discuss.
There is absolutely no way to write these articles without completely giving away my player ratings and strategies. I fully expect to have all of this used against me in the numerous Dynasty Owner leagues I’m in.
If someone uses it against you, maybe it shows that they actually read this stuff. Which would be a surprise.
That’s true.
In the end, it’s much more fun to engage everyone in real conversation than to hide behind fake values, or composite values.
You’re getting my thoughts and my strategies. For better or worse.
Probably for worse.
I really hope you take what I’m doing here and get excited about plugging your own strategies in and doing better than me.
Probably way better.
I love the encouragement.
With all that said, let’s get to Team #1.
TEAM UPDATE: PRE-ROOKIE DRAFT
You’re going to see a couple of different charts here, both based on the earlier chart. One shows the roster as I inherited side by side with the roster I have now. The second chart shows the key data points for managing the teams I started with side by side with where I am now.
I’m also going to go over pre-rookie draft strategies for the team as part of the analysis.
TEAM #1 – $1,200 PRIZE POOL LEAGUE
TEAM NICKNAME: NEXT YEAR’S BUBBLE GUM
I see a little silhouetto of a man… and he doesn’t know how to do nicknames. Help me with this, will you?
Summary: I had to leave it all behind and face the truth.
Oh no.
Mama! Ooooh ooooh ooooh!
Get a hold of yourself, man!
Um. Yes. Right. Carry on, carry on.
Commentary: This was a complete overhaul. We’ll go over some of the trades that led to this overhaul, but to go over them all would take forever. We’ll focus on the deals involving the big ticket folks. Trevor Lawrence, Derrick Henry, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Jerry Jeudy, and Drake London.
First, a big shoutout to the other Dynasty Owners in this league. They’re super active, very talkative, and willing to be open about what they’re looking for in trades. I’m an open book in trade talks, and I like it when others are as well. It helps get people to a win-win situation.
And I’m not “grading” these trades. If I think I did well, I’m not here to gloat about it. Mostly because I can’t count the amount of times I’ve thought I won a trade only to look back and wonder what the heck I was thinking.
I will tell you if I know that I blew it. And there’s one trade down here that, yeah, I think I blew it.
So, without further ado.
Further ado? Further adieu?
Further goodbye? In French? It’s further ado. Like, much ado about nothing.
That would be the perfect name for this article!
You set me up.
Or for your life!
Good one.
Let’s just take a look the trades on in the order that they occurred:
THEY GET
I GET
Jerry Jeudy ($3,798,244)
Isaiah Spiller ($1,099,238)
Hassan Haskins ($1,088,055)
2023 Picks: 3.04, 3.10
2025 Pick: Round 2
This was the first big splash. My goal here was to take a player on a one year deal in Jeudy and get something of value for him. In the last article, I wrote about how Jeudy was someone I was most likely lower on than the consensus. Much lower. This is a case of not dealing from my valuation, but from the consensus’ valuation and getting a good return. Spiller and Haskins are cheap flyers, that 2025 pick is nice to build on. Those 2023 picks are the real value. We’ll see if I’m right.
THEY GET
I GET
Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372)
Elijah Moore ($2,235,107)
Mike Gesicki ($4,500,000)
Romeo Doubs ($1,085,979)
Mack Hollins ($2,500,000)
2023 Picks: 1.11, 3.01
Chase Claypool ($1,654,156)
2024 Pick: Round 1
The big prize went early. Trevor Lawrence and the two years remaining on his rookie contract at under $10,000,000.
You’ll see me deal people who most would consider keepers and unmovable. There are different reasons why I did that. In this case, I looked at the situation and I’m not going to contend for a title this year. So, one of those two years of Lawrence’s contract is going to be spent on a non-contending roster. Then going into next year, I’ll have that great bargain, but his trade value will plummet because his next deal is going to be $50,000,000+ per year. I would be trading him as a one-year rental rather than a two-year building block. The next trade will show you what a one-year rental, no matter how great, is really worth.
Lawrence got dealt for two WRs who I like very much, a low first round rookie draft pick (1.11), and the first pick of the third round in this year’s rookie draft (3.01), along with a first round rookie draft pick next year. The rest of the players I gave were just to balance the rosters out.
You can say I undersold by only getting a low first and another first along with two players who may pan out and a third rounder. I liked the haul, and I think the other Dynasty Owner team filled their biggest need and got some roster depth. Truly a win-win in my book, and that’s what I’m all about.
THEY GET
I GET
Derrick Henry ($12,500,000)
Geno Smith ($25,000,000)
2024 Pick: Round 3
2023 Picks: 3.03, 3.07
2025 Pick: Round 3
Derrick Henry just isn’t worth much on the open market.
I found that out the hard way.
First, after trading Lawrence I wanted to snag a starting QB with a couple of years under contract who wouldn’t break my bank. There really are only two who fit that bill (maybe three, we’ll get to him later).
Picking up Geno means that I’m not going to have a team that is just a total walkover. And it gives me a QB who had a good year last year and is very affordable.
I flat out couldn’t find a buyer for Henry. Given the context, I was happy to walk away with what I did. Though I do believe Henry should warrant more of a haul than this.
You may notice that Geno is not on my roster in the grid up above. We’ll get to that.
THEY GET
I GET
Drake London ($5,383,617)
Mac Jones ($3,896,388)
Jerome Ford ($995,537)
Kyle Philips ($993,331)
Now this is the trade where I just didn’t do so well.
To trade away Drake London without getting a pick is idiocy.
This is a case where I traded based on my valuation, rather than based on the consensus valuation. I am very low on London. I don’t like his QB situation. I don’t like the run focus that the Falcons are going to have. And I don’t really think $5,000,000 a year is a huge bargain.
Ford and Philips are two dart throws. And while I’m very high on Mac Jones (now that he actually has a real offensive coordinator), and while his price is dirt cheap, this trade just screams out for a first round pick to be included. I targeted Mac, I got Mac, but in the process I lost sight of the consensus valuation and probably left a lot on the table.
THEY GET
I GET
Romeo Doubs ($1,085,979)
Khalil Shakir ($1,001,787)
John Metchie ($2,017,543)
Tyler Higbee ($7,250,000)
Chigoziem Okonkwo ($1,041,085)
2023 Picks: 2.09, 2.12
2024 Picks: Round 2, Round 3
Now this is one that may have people scratching their heads. The three players I dealt away are all seen as “keepers”, and affordable ones at that. Why would I trade them?
First, let’s get Tyler Higbee out of the way. You can see on the chart that I have him as a TE2. I don’t see him as a starter. However, I want to have a competitive team, and Higbee is at least going to contribute sometimes on a team that really doesn’t have a whole lot of options for pass catching besides Cooper Kupp ($26,700,000) and him.
That out of the way, I think the best player in this deal is Khalil Shakir.
I’m trying not to butt in on all this… but what in the heck are you talking about?
Look, disembodied typing person. I really have to find a nickname for you.
How about “Nick”?
Nah. Too obvious.
Player evaluation isn’t the point of this set of articles, but when I look at the Bills and their moves this off-season, I see Shakir being the clear #3 WR. And maybe #2, with Gabriel Davis ($998,595) not living up to his lofty expectations. Any Bills WR, with that offense, is going to be valuable. Combine all that with stories about Stefon Diggs ($24,000,000) being unhappy with the Bills and the opportunity for a boom for Shakir is there.
The three players I gave up all have their own barriers to success, but it’s also possible that they all really pan out.
That’s where 2.09 and 2.12 rookie draft picks come in. The TE depth in this draft is insane. I’m banking that I’ll find a TE at that point in the rookie draft who’ll have about the same value and upside as Chig, but with one year extra on his deal. Same for Metchie and finding a WR in that pick range. When you add the 2024 picks in, I like what I got here. And the other Dynasty Owner definitely got a high upside for themselves in this deal as well.
THEY GET
I GET
Geno Smith ($25,000,000)
Jared Goff ($33,500,000)
2024 Draft Pick: Round 1 (not mine)
DJ Chark ($5,000,000)
2025 Draft Pick: Round 2
2023 Pick: 1.07
The final trade to go over. Remember that whole “cheap QB” spiel above? I went $8.5 million more and took Goff over Geno. I have them valued on the same tier, but the cost savings to the other team, plus the picks I gave, got me the 1.07 rookie draft pick. That pick is, in my estimation, the last pick where you’re guaranteed to find a first-round graded player in this rookie draft.
It cost me what will probably be a low first round rookie draft pick next year, and a 2025 second round rookie draft pick. This is a trade that could go either way, and the value of this trade is going to entirely depend on what I do with that 1.07 pick this year.
Which leads me to…
DRAFT STRATEGY
For this team, it’s all about the best player available. In my estimation, I have exactly one player who has a “1” grade on the entire team. And that’s Justin Tucker. However, there are quite a few young players who may pop.
With that said, there is no position, except kicker, where I’d say that I will be fussy about positions as I draft. Whoever is the best player at that moment is the player that I’m taking.
FINAL ANALYSIS
Lots of holes to fill. The draft is really going to determine the fate of this team. I like the draft capital I added, both this year and next. And though I only have 10 players under contract for next year, with 12 (TWELVE!) draft picks this year, I’ll be looking at entering next season with 22 players signed and probably a good $60,000,000-plus in cap room to deal for high-priced starters. With Elliott and Fournette on this roster as free agents who are most likely going to sign more affordable contracts, I have two more pieces to potentially deal and get more young players with.
While I made a couple of errors, I feel good about where this team is positioned. I have two QBs I believe in under contract for next season, and lots of draft capital. What more could I want?
You could want that Drake London trade back.
Sure. Yeah. Thanks for the reminder.
It’s kind of like the Browns trading their future for a guy who had been injured, had a year off of football, had all kinds of allegations…
You’re hitting kind of close to home.
… and then signing that guy to a record amount of guaranteed money, thereby blowing up the entire quarterback pay scale…
Sure.
… and paralyzing their salary cap for the foreseeable future…
I don’t think this is going to get approved.
… and dwindling the window of winning down to just one or at best two years, only IF that quarterback plays well coming off of a year off and a horrible end of the previous season, and at the same time as dominant teams crop up in Kansas City, Buffalo, and Cincinnati.
Are you done?
One more. And because of signing that controversial player, the Browns drove a whole segment of their fan base away. Including a middling 43 year old fantasy football player who’s desperately trying to fill the gaping hole left in his football fandom by writing columns about his attempts to build mediocre teams out of slightly less than mediocre beginnings. This guy is so upset that he refuses to even write the name of the player in an article, much less ever pick him up for any of his teams.
Man, this is all going to tick some people off.
And that writer? He just feels like a poor boy, nobody loves him.
Sigh.
He’s just a poor boy from a poor family.
Let’s move on.
BISMILLAH! NO! WE WILL NOT LET YOU GO!
I’m just going to shut this down awkwardly.
No! No more fun?
I think we’ve given folks enough to chew on here.
In my next article, we’ll dive into Team #2, the team that may actually contend this year.
And you’re going to keep up with the Queen tribute?
Of course, I will. I can’t let it go now! Mama, life had just begun!
Great…
Until next time!
Message me on Twitter (@aobgsports) and tell me what you think about all this. I would also appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. The content there is terrific, and well worth the five seconds it’ll take to follow and subscribe.
Welcome Dynasty Owners to another New Contract Spotlight article. Last week, I started a new series for this year, but I have done this series in the past. The goal of these articles is to give you an idea of what to expect from players whose contracts have changed since the end of the 2022 season. Almost all of the players I talk about will have an increase in salary, and almost all of them will have a pretty major increase. Today is going to be no exception to that statement. I will be writing about Saquon Barkley and his new franchise tag. This will put his salary at $10,091,000 for the 2023 Dynasty Owner season. It is fitting that I talk about Barkley this week as he has reportedly not made an appearance at mandatory off-season practices.
This development gives validity to the idea that Saquon could be heading for a hold out until he receives a new contract. I’m not saying that this will carry over into the 2023 regular season or that it’s even likely, but it is possible, and Dynasty Owners need to be aware of that.
Before we get to this new contract breakdown, I’m going to continue unveiling my Top 5 player rankings. Last week, I rolled out my Top QB rankings and today it is the running backs’ turn. Keep in mind that these are overall value rankings. They take production, age and salary into account.
Top 5 Running Back Rankings
Player
Team
Age
Salary
Years
Bijan Robinson
ATL
21
$5,489,634
4
Christian McCaffrey
SF
27
$16,015,875
3
Jonathan Taylor
IND
24
$1,957,288
1
Austin Ekeler
LAC
28
$6,125,000
1
Breece Hall
NYJ
22
$2,253,694
3
There is a new king when it comes to running back value. His name is Bijan Robinson. I do realize that I’m making myself vulnerable with a pick like this. Yes, Bijan has not taken a real NFL snap yet. I realize that we haven’t seen him perform against professionals yet. My opinion is that he is as close to a safe rookie pick as I have seen in the past five years. If Bijan is healthy, he will be a lock to finish as a Top 10 running back, and he has Top 4 RB upside in his first season. If Tyler Allgeier ($998,474) could surpass 1,000 rushing yards in 2022 for the Falcons, then there is no reason that Robinson won’t get north of 1,200 rushing yards. As a rookie, Bijan is the youngest player on this list. I can confidently say that I would draft him as the first running back off the board in a startup Dynasty Owner league.
Coming in at #2 is the player who finished as the RB2 in 2022…Christian McCaffrey (CMC). McCaffrey may be 27 years old, but he has at least two full seasons of elite running back fantasy goodness in him. You won’t have the shelf life with CMC as you would have with other younger players outside the Top 5, but the production he puts up over the next three seasons should make up for it. I’d like to say that I would always choose CMC as my second running back in every situation, but that’s just not the truth. If I am centering my draft around “win now” players with an emphasis on top tier, expensive RBs, then I am perfectly fine taking CMC in the first round.
Jonathan Taylor drops two spots from last off-season where he was my #1 Dynasty Owner running back. The ugly truth is that he just did not have a great season last year. I hate to say it, but it was just downright bad. He missed a handful of games and even when he was “healthy”, his production dropped off as well. He finished as the RB32 in 2022. I realize that going back to the well with Taylor may end up burning me again, but I believe in the talent. I believe that this offense is going to have to run and depend on Taylor. The addition of a mobile, athletic starting quarterback doesn’t give me increased confidence in Taylor. In fact, it’s just the opposite. However, he is still going to be the workhorse running back for the team, and barring an injury, I have Taylor finishing at RB6 for this season. That production mixed with his sub $2,000,000 contract, makes me slide him into the overall RB3 spot.
Austin Ekeler is a player who I have been trying to acquire in every league that I can. He is in the final year of a very manageable contract for a running back. He is right at the age where he still isn’t “over the hill”. He just completed an overall RB1 season last year, and he is projected as a Top 3 RB this year as well. If it wasn’t for the fact that Ekeler is 28 years old, he would likely be the overall RB2 on this list. The Chargers also failed to bring in a free agent running back or take one in the NFL Draft who is capable of pushing Ekeler for playing time. The truth is that Ekeler is far and away the best running back on the team, and he will have plenty of scoring opportunities this year.
The final player on this list is Breece Hall. It pains me that he couldn’t be #2 on this list because that is exactly what he would be if he hadn’t suffered a season ending injury last year. I have high confidence that Breece will return to at least 95% of his previous athleticism and explosiveness, but I’m worried that it won’t all come back this year. The research shows that running backs one year removed from an ACL tear are less productive and efficient. I can’t tell you that this historical data will prove true for Hall as well, but I would tend to believe it will be true. Expect a good, yet slightly underwhelming year for Hall. I’m thinking of somewhere in the RB9 – RB15 range.
New Contract Spotlight
Saquon Barkley ($10,091,000)
The story for Saquon is pretty short so I will keep my analysis short as well. He had a bounce back season last year when he finished as the RB6. This was both a fine finish in startup drafts as well as Dynasty Owner in general as he was on his fifth-year option contract with a salary of $7,217,000. This off-season, the Giants offered Saquon a franchise tag which he has still not signed. The tag is worth $10,091,000 and that is what he costs to have on your Dynasty Owner roster at the moment.
Here’s the problem…Saquon hasn’t signed the tag, and he also hasn’t reported to mandatory practices this off-season. I wish I could lie to you and say that I’m unconcerned, but that wouldn’t be true. On a scale from 1 – 10, I’m at a 6 on the “panic meter.” This means that I am somewhat concerned about at least a partial holdout while also not panicking to the point that I am selling him for less than he is worth. This is the bottom line takeaway from Barkley’s situation:
He is unsigned, and he has stated that he has no intention of signing unless he gets a long-term offer that meets his expectations. Will he follow through with those demands? Your guess is as good as mine, but it is concerning. Dynasty Owners who roster Barkley need to keep it in the back of their mind that there is a chance he sits out this season. I don’t expect that to happen, but it’s possible. So, what are the possible outcomes and the odds of each one happening?
Saquon plays on the franchise tag in 2023. (30%)
Saquon and the Giants reach a long-term deal before the deadline. (45%)
Saquon sits out for at least a portion of the 2023 season. (25%)
Keep in mind that if there is a large, long-term deal reached, this will immediately take over as the Dynasty Owner contract and salary amount for the 2023 season and Dynasty Owners will be on the hook for his new contract, which is almost surely to be over $10,091,000. If Saquon gets a new long-term deal before the July 17th deadline, his Dynasty Owners may also choose to drop him for free for seven days after the contract information is updated on the Dynasty Owner platform.
That’s it. That’s all I have on Barkley. We will know more as the season draws closer, but hopefully a deal is reached shortly so we can look forward to a productive season. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.
In early April last year after free agency had started but before the NFL Draft, I did two articles in which I looked at two or three players who had signed identical contracts in the off-season and chose which player I’d rather have on my Dynasty Owner roster. The idea was to strip away the one thing that makes Dynasty Owner different than other fantasy football leagues (real NFL contracts and salaries) and just pit players head-to-head (or in a triple threat matchup) and predict who would have a better season. When Dynasty Owners are faced with a choice between two similar players, especially in startup drafts, it can be a bit of a crutch to use a lower salary as the final determining factor. The same is true if you’re looking at two players in the Free Agent Auction and need to decide which one to bid on.
Unlike last year, there weren’t a lot of players who got identical salaries for the same number of years this off-season. Of course, there are a lot of veterans who are signing for the veteran minimum amount for a player with their years of NFL experience (according to Spotrac, those amounts from the Collective Bargaining Agreement are: 0 years – $750,000; 1 year – $870,000; 2 years – $940,000; 3 years – $1,010,000; 4 to 6 years – $1,080,000; 7+ years – $1,165,000). However, many of them are training camp depth and pitting players who might not even make it out of training camp or are projected to be backups isn’t very interesting. Sorry if you were hoping for a backup QB breakdown of Andy Dalton and Jarrett Stidham ($5,000,000 each), or even Drew Lock and Jameis Winston ($4,000,000 each). For those, pick the backup QB with the starter who is most likely to get injured.
In 2022, I analyzed ten matchups of these player matchups, and the results were pretty good considering that all of the players had signed identical contracts. There was no hedging and taking the easy way out by picking a player who signed for one less season or was making a few dollars less in salary. The results show that I got five correct, only one incorrect and four finished with no clear winner. Four of these 2022 matchups featured players who signed multi-year contracts and six involved players under one year contracts. The matchups were as follows (winner in Bold and my choice underlined):
Chris Godwin vs. Mike Williams – 3 years/$60 million ($20 million per year)
Russell Gage vs. Marquez Valdes-Scantling – 3 years/$30 million ($10 million per year)
James Conner vs. Leonard Fournette – 3 years/$21 million ($7 million per year) – No clear winner
Josh Reynolds vs. Tre’Quan Smith – 2 years/$6 million ($3 million per year)
Sam Darnold vs. Baker Mayfield – 1 year/$18.858 million (QB franchise tag) – No clear winner
Mike Gesicki vs. David Njoku vs. Dalton Schultz – 1 year/$10.931 million (TE franchise tag) – No clear winner
Deonte Harty vs. Allen Lazard vs. Jakobi Meyers – 1 year/$3.986 million (Restricted Free Agent tender)
O.J. Howard vs. Hayden Hurst – 1 year/$3.5 million
Duke Johnson vs. Breshad Perriman vs. Maxx Williams – 1 year/$1,272,500 – No clear winner
Matt Breida vs. Ricky Seals-Jones vs. James Washington – 1 year/$1,187,500
The one incorrect choice wasn’t a big one, even though Matt Breida ($1,400,000) was the clear winner since neither of the other two players even played during the season. In two of the four matchups with no clear winner, there was one player who had more Dynasty Owner fantasy points, while the other player had a better Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game average. Depending on your point of view, Leonard Fournette ($7,000,000) and Baker Mayfield ($4,000,000) are the winners because they had more Dynasty Owner fantasy points and a better season-long ranking, while others may say that James Conner ($7,000,000) and Sam Darnold ($4,500,000) won by having more Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. In the three-way matchup between Duke Johnson ($1,272,500), Breshad Perriman ($1,272,500) and Maxx Williams ($1,120,000), none of them played much last year. Perriman had 21.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 11 games, while the other two only contributed in one or two games. There’s no winner as none of them were worth having on a Dynasty Owner roster last year.
Out of the five winners, only Hayden Hurst ($7,250,000) had a clearly superior season as he finished as TE20 with 110.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, while O.J. Howard ($1,232,500) only had 36.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and finished as TE58. Josh Reynolds ($3,000,000) scored twice as many Dynasty Owner fantasy points (103.9) as Tre’Quan Smith ($3,000,000) did (51.2) in the same number of games (14). Tampa Bay teammates Chris Godwin ($20,000,000) and Russell Gage ($10,000,000) were definitely better than Mike Williams ($20,000,000) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($10,000,000). However, neither Gage nor Valdes-Scantling were worth their salary last season. Finally, Jakobi Meyers ($11,000,000) and Allen Lazard ($11,000,000) were pretty close and ended up getting the same average annual salary contract to switch teams after becoming unrestricted free agents. Both were much better than Deonte Harty ($4,750,000) as evidenced by the salary amounts that they all received.
The ability to figure out which player with the same salary will have a great season could be the difference between winning your League Championship and finishing as the runner-up. It could also determine whether your team makes or misses the Dynasty Owner playoffs entirely. Who knows? Maybe one of these players is the guy who will help your Dynasty Owner team compete for the Chase for the Ring.
In order to help with these comparisons, let’s review how players score Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.
Any salaries and roster percentages listed were current as of the evening of June 15th. All 2023 contract information is currently listed on the Dynasty Owner platform (number of years and salaries), has been taken from Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/) and is subject to change and updating.
Franchise Tag Running Back Triple Threat
Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG) vs. Josh Jacobs (RB – LV) vs. Tony Pollard (RB – DAL): 1 year/$10,091,000
Here we have three RBs who had great 2022 seasons, received the franchise tag from their team as a result, and will play for one year at that franchise tag amount of $10,091,000 unless they sign a long-term contract by July 17th. The date is usually July 15th, but since that is a Saturday, the deadline is extended to Monday this season. Here they are sorted by 2022 rank.
Player
2023 ADP
2022Rank
2022 Points
Age
2022 Points per Game
Josh Jacobs
34.0
RB3
337.3
25
21.08
Saquon Barkley
23.5
RB6
294.0
26
18.38
Tony Pollard
37.4
RB9
252.9
26
16.86
It’s not listed, but all three of them are rostered in 100% of Dynasty Owner leagues. They are also all being drafted very early in Dynasty Owner startup drafts, mainly in the first three rounds. Saquon Barkley is being drafted about a round earlier than both Jacobs and Pollard. All three are good players and at a certain point, I’d take each one in a startup draft depending on my draft position, but I can only choose one here.
Steve’s Choice: Tony Pollard
I’m going against conventional wisdom with this selection by taking the player who had the fewest Dynasty Owner fantasy points last year, the lowest points per game and is being drafted last out of the three in 2023 startup drafts. I realize people are totally skeptical about Mike McCarthy’s play calling abilities, but in McCarthy’s 22 years as an offensive coordinator and head coach, he’s had six different players across 11 seasons run for 1,000 yards or more in a single season. Admittedly, he didn’t have one 1,000 rusher in his final four seasons in Green Bay and two out of his three seasons in Dallas, but a large part of that in Green Bay was having Aaron Rodgers ($50,271,667) at QB and having to split carries between Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott ($15,000,000) for the past three seasons in Dallas.
With little competition for carries in 2023, I’m predicting Pollard will get at least 70% of the rushing attempts for the Cowboys and since the team has averaged 374 carries per season for the last three seasons between Pollard and Elliott combined, that means Pollard should get around 260 rushing attempts in 2023. Pollard has averaged 5.13 yards per carry for his career with a low of 4.31 yards per carry in 2020. If I project that out, Pollard should have between 1,074 and 1,334 rushing yards this season. In his four years in Dallas, Pollard has averaged 30 receptions per season for 252 receiving yards. He has scored 22 TDs with 12 last season, but we’ll take the average and round up to give him a base of 6 TDs. At the low end, that gives Pollard 192.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (1,074 rushing yards, 30 receptions, 252 receiving yards and 6 TDs). At the high end, we’ll give him the 39 receptions that he had each of the last two seasons plus the average of his receiving yards, which is 354 receiving yards. Pollard and Elliott combined for 24 TDs last season, so we’ll give Pollard 12 TDs (rushing and receiving) as his upper amount for 2023. That would give Pollard a total of 279.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, which would have ranked him as RB7 in 2022. Not a bad season at all.
For reference, Jacobs never exceeded that projected number of Dynasty Owner fantasy points until 2022. Barkley also exceeded that total last year, but that was the first time since 2018 that he did. Therefore, neither one is a lock to do better than Pollard.
Pollard has a great chance to be the lead back with little competition at RB in Dallas for a head coach who wants to run the “damn ball”. Unless you consider Ronald Jones ($1,232,500), Rico Dowdle ($1,040,000), Deuce Vaughn ($993,334), or Malik Davis ($750,000) to be competition. Neither Jacobs nor Barkley has a lot of competition either right now, but I’m most confident in Pollard being able to repeat his 2022 success.
Finally, neither Jacobs nor Barkley has signed their franchise tag tender yet and didn’t participate in their team’s mandatory minicamp. Pollard did sign and was a limited participant at Dallas’ recent minicamp. With Jacobs and Barkley both not happy with their contracts, maybe their teams start looking for RB depth. I like that Pollard appears to be more invested in the upcoming 2023 season, so I’ll take him before both of those other RBs.
Repeat Matchup at Wide Receiver
As mentioned earlier, I did a three-way matchup among undrafted rookie free agent WRs (Deonte Harty, Allen Lazard and Jakobi Meyers) who played last year for the one-year, second round tender salary amount of $3.986 million that can be given to restricted free agents (RFAs). Two of those three players proceeded to have very similar 2022 seasons and sign contracts for the same annual amount (again). It’s time for a rematch! Even though the contracts are for a different number of years and aren’t truly identical.
Allen Lazard (WR – NYJ) vs. Jakobi Meyers (WR – LV): $11,000,000 annual salary (4 years for Lazard and 3 years for Meyers)
Lazard moved on from Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers and the duo will now play for the New York Jets. Jakobi Meyers left New England to be reunited with former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas. The third member of last year’s triple threat matchup, Deonte Harty ($4,750,000) didn’t get as much salary or as many years (only 2 years) after playing in only four games in 2022 and accumulating just two receptions for 13 yards plus 145 return yards and a lost fumble (3.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). Not even close to as much production as Lazard and Meyers gave their Dynasty Owners.
Player
2023 ADP
2022Rank
2022 Points
Age
2022 Points per Game
Roster Percentage
Jakobi Meyers
182.2
WR29
178.3
26
12.74
78.69%
Allen Lazard
156.0
WR35
174.8
27
11.65
78.28%
For some reason, despite having fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points last season than Meyers overall and on a per game basis, Lazard got the longer contract and is being drafted about two rounds earlier in Dynasty Owner startup drafts. Meyers is rostered in a couple more leagues than Lazard, but it’s really, really close so what likely happened is that a couple fewer Dynasty Owners dropped Meyers when their contracts got updated. It was a difficult decision last year and the competition was a close one. In the end, I went with Meyers and picked correctly. With both players moving on and playing for a different team in 2023, maybe my choice will also be different.
Steve’s Choice: It’s not. Jakobi Meyers (again)
The first thing plenty of people will say after reading my choice is “Biased Patriots fan” and on its face, that seems to be a logical response. However, I said this last year and it ended up being pretty spot on.
“…it’s no surprise that I chose Meyers, but I believe Meyers has the past performance to back up this choice. He had more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than both Lazard and Harty in each of the past two seasons and could still be the WR1 in New England, even after the acquisition of DeVante Parker.”
I’ll pat myself on the back for predicting that Meyers would be the best of the three WRs with those identical contracts and maintain his WR1 status in New England, even after the Patriots traded for DeVante Parker ($7,625,000). Please don’t think that I’m predicting Meyers will be the WR1 for the Raiders ahead of Davante Adams ($28,000,000) this season though. Barring an injury to Adams, that’s not happening. However, I do think Meyers will be better in 2023 because he has less competition on his new team and performed better in their respective careers and every season except back in 2019.
The last part of the previous sentence is probably difficult for some fantasy football players to believe, but if you look at it objectively, Jakobi Meyers has performed better in the NFL than Allen Lazard. Lazard’s highest Dynasty Owner finish was last year when he was WR35 with 174.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 15 games (11.65 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game). Meyers outscored Lazard by 3.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in one fewer game in Lazard’s best season. In 2021, Meyers finished as WR29 (same finish as 2022) with an average of 10.94 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game, while Lazard was WR49 with 9.50 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. In 2020, Lazard played in four fewer games than Meyers and scored 1.50 fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game (11.28 for Meyers vs. 9.78 for Lazard). Only in 2019 did Lazard perform better when Meyers was an undrafted rookie Patriots slot receiver and played behind Julian Edelman.
The main reason that Dynasty Owners are likely picking Lazard earlier than Meyers in Dynasty Owner startup drafts is his connection with Aaron Rodgers. Meyers will have a new QB in Jimmy Garoppolo ($24,250,000) in Las Vegas, while Lazard and Rodgers have worked together for the past four seasons. However, Meyers has outperformed Lazard in the last three seasons and playing with Cam Newton in 2020 and Mac Jones ($3,896,588) for all of 2021 and most of 2022. Call me a Patriots homer if you want, but I’ll gladly take the guy who has been better in each of the past three seasons over the guy who’s never been the top guy for his QB and now has more competition at WR with the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson ($5,138,502) plus Mecole Hardman ($4,500,000), Randall Cobb ($3,000,000), Denzel Mims ($1,358,425) and Corey Davis ($12,500,000) all fighting for targets from Rodgers for the Jets.
Running Backs Making Not Much More than the Veteran Minimum Salary
There are a lot of players who will sign one-year contracts for the veteran minimum salary or get a small signing bonus and make slightly more than that amount. A lot of them are players who Dynasty Owners are familiar with, but still guys who may or may not make their team’s roster out of training camp. However, I did find one pair of running backs to look at who had solid 2022 seasons before signing another one year deal just over the veteran minimum salary amount.
McKinnon and Murray have plenty of similarities. Both are over 30 years old (Murray is 33, while McKinnon is 31), playing for high-powered offenses, and for teams led by one of the best QBs in the NFL. In terms of personal performance, both had seven games in 2022 with more than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
However, differences exist as well. While McKinnon has played the past two seasons for Kansas City, Murray has bounced around and played for three different teams in that time (Baltimore, Denver and New Orleans) and will be on his fourth team when he suits up for Buffalo in 2023. McKinnon is listed as 5’9” and 209 lbs., while Murray is bigger at 6’3” and 230 lbs. The “tale of the tape” below compares the two veteran RBs.
Player
2023 ADP
2022Rank
2022 Points
Age
2022 Points per Game
Roster Percentage
Jerick McKinnon
131.9
RB21
189.7
31
11.86
100.0%
Latavius Murray
246.0
RB35
140.4
33
12.76
66.39%
Likely because of the two games he had at the end of the Dynasty Owner regular season with more than 30.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, McKinnon is being drafted far ahead of Murray in 2023 Dynasty Owner startup drafts. McKinnon’s ADP of 131.9 puts him at the end of the 11th round on average, while Murray is a mid-21st round pick with his 246.0 ADP. McKinnon is also on a roster in every single Dynasty Owner league right now, while Murray is available in the Free Agent Auction in about one-third of Dynasty Owner leagues. Those are pretty significant differences for two older RBs who have quite a few similarities and had similar production last season. In fact, Murray actually averaged more Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game than McKinnon did.
Murray missed a couple of games at the start of the 2022 season as he didn’t sign with the New Orleans practice squad until after the first game of the season, then was signed off the Saints practice squad by the Broncos after playing one game for the Saints (in London). McKinnon also got a late start to the season as he wasn’t used much until Week 14 against Denver and Week 15 against Houston. The Denver game was the first game last year in which he got more than 10 touches in a game.
Steve’s Choice: Jerick McKinnon
Not surprisingly, I’m going with the guy being drafted nearly ten rounds ahead of the other guy. However, the decision was closer than you might think. The one thing holding me back from taking Murray is that I feel like Buffalo is more likely to add one of the available free agent RBs, such as Ezekiel Elliott ($15,000,000), Dalvin Cook ($12,600,000), Leonard Fournette ($7,000,000), or Kareem Hunt ($6,000,000) than Kansas City. Kansas City remains my dark horse candidate to sign Cook if he doesn’t go back home to play for Miami or go to Buffalo and play with his brother James Cook ($1,458,014).
My crystal ball is out for repairs right now, so I don’t know where each of those free agent RBs sign and my recent declarations on the topic are questionable at best. I was someone who was pretty confident that Dalvin Cook wasn’t going to be released by the Vikings and stuff happened that week that showed I didn’t know what the Vikings were going to do (listen to the June 9th edition of the Dynasty Owner podcast if you haven’t already done so and hear it for yourself). If both the Chiefs and Bills sign one of those veteran free agents, McKinnon is more likely to see steady playing time than Murray. McKinnon would still play on third down, while Murray projects as more of a backup RB in that scenario.
Conclusion
So far, these are the best three identical contract signings of 2023 out there to analyze. I’ve found a couple of close ones, so I can do a few additional matchups in my next article, but I’ll have to fudge a little bit on the comparisons. Even the Lazard-Meyers matchup was a bit of a fudge and not 100% identical. Last year definitely saw more players get the same salary who could be looked at as a direct comparison. Hopefully I can still make some additional matchups interesting for all of my fellow Dynasty Owners even if the contracts aren’t identical.
Another thing that’s not identical are the strategies employed by Dynasty Owners in startup drafts. In every 12 team Dynasty Owner startup draft, there are 12 different strategies being employed. Other regular dynasty fantasy football leagues can get a little chalky, especially at the beginning of the draft, but not Dynasty Owner!
If you haven’t gotten into a Dynasty Owner startup draft yet and are done with rookie drafts, or are still waiting for a rookie draft to start, you’re in luck. You can scratch your fantasy football draft itch by joining a Dynasty Owner startup draft this coming weekend (June 17th and 18th) or do a Monday night draft on the 19th. There are more startup drafts coming all summer until the start of the NFL season. Go to your D.O. Store, click on New Team for 2023, and find a time when you can draft this weekend, or a weekend in the future.
We also have a new writer who you can find on Twitter (@aobgsports) who plays under the team name All Outta Bubble Gum here on Dynasty Owner. He bought a couple of orphan teams for just $10 and is writing about what he’s doing with them. You can follow along by checking out his first article. The next article will be out next week along with another one from Matt. There will be two articles a week from us over the rest of June and all of July for your reading pleasure.
Jay and I also do a weekly Dynasty Owner podcast and we also have a weekly Friday Livestream with me and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer. Tim’s out this week, but I’ll be on at 11 AM with a couple of special guests. If you want to see and hear Tim, go to the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel and check out last week’s Livestream or one of the live mock draft episodes from earlier in the off-season. Finally, don’t forget to follow Dynasty Owner on Twitter. Thanks for reading and have a great day!
Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner
Today I’m going to bring back an article series that I really enjoyed doing last off-season. In fact, it accounted for the majority of my writings. It is…the New Contract Spotlight series.
In these articles, I will lay out one player who received a contract increase or decrease since last season. It will be a good way to not only break down the player, but also the implications of his new salary. For the first four weeks of this series, I will also be giving a sneak peak of my Player Value Rankings. The full rankings will be released later this off-season.
Top 5 Quarterback Rankings
Player
Team
Age
Salary
Years
Jalen Hurts
PHI
24
$1,506,293
1
Justin Fields
CHI
24
$4,717,989
2
Joe Burrow
CIN
26
$9,047,534
1
Justin Herbert
LAC
25
$6,644,689
1
Patrick Mahomes
KC
27
$45,000,000
9
It should be no surprise that we have an abundance of youth on this list. Remember, this is not who I think will finish the highest at the position for the 2023 season. Rather this is a value ranking that takes into account both production and salary.
First on this list is the player who I had ranked #2 on this list last season. That player is Jalen Hurts. Hurts finished as the QB4 last season, and he was (by far) the most valuable quarterback from a money standpoint. I expect a Top 5 QB finish for Hurts this year. Yes, I know that his salary is going to skyrocket to $51 million next season, but having a league winning player on that cheap of a salary for one more year is priceless
Justin Fields comes in second after he had a historic second half fantasy season. Expect his passing yards to increase in his junior season while I would also expect a slight drop in his rushing usage and overall numbers. Regardless, he is on a rookie salary for two more years, plus the Bears have the right to exercise the fifth-year option in his rookie contract before he can become a free agent. His rushing upside mixed with the cheap cost to own him makes Fields a rock solid overall QB2 for Dynasty Owner startup leagues.
Joe Burrow stays right where he was in my rankings at this time last year. Yes, he is a year older and closer to having his rookie contract expire and the Bengals have already exercised his fifth-year option at a salary of $29.504 million. For Dynasty Owner, I have Burrow as the third ranked quarterback in terms of production. If Burrow had an additional year left on his rookie contract like Fields does, then I would have him ranked higher.
Justin Herbert drops three spots compared to last year’s pre-season rankings. He struggled last season and that is the main reason for him dropping so far. I believe he will finish as a Top 8 QB this season, but I have much more faith that Burrow will do it. Herbert is solidly inside the Top 5…at least until next season.
Finally, we have Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is the odds-on favorite to finish as the overall #1 player in Dynasty Owner this season, but production is only half the equation for Dynasty Owner. That production will come at a cost. The cost is $45,000,000 this year or nearly 29 percent of the 2023 Dynasty Owner salary cap of $157.36 million. I would love to have Mahomes on my roster and I do roster him in a few Dynasty Owner leagues, but when it comes down to it, there are four guys who I would take ahead of him in Dynasty Owner startup drafts.
Recap:
All five quarterbacks are relatively young and are expected to finish Top 10 at the position.
I included zero rookie QBs just because I have no idea which ones will provide meaningful fantasy production in their first couple of years.
Josh Allen ($43,005,667) and Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372) find themselves just outside of the Top 5, but both could easily slide in next year.
New Contract Spotlight
A.J. Brown ($25,000,000)
Let’s start with the facts on A.J. Brown. He finished as the overall WR5 for the 2022 Dynasty Owner season. He is projected as the WR7 for the upcoming season. In 2022, he had one of the lowest annual salaries ($1,413,092) for any top tier player. That changed in 2023, as he now makes $25,000,000 per year. He is 100 percent rostered in Dynasty Owner.
If you had him on your roster last season, you know that Brown was fantastic. He didn’t single handedly win me a championship, but he was the most common player I had on my championship rosters. I think that narrative is going to change for this upcoming season. Yes, he will continue to be 100 percent rostered. Yes, he will most likely finish as a Top 8 wide receiver this year once again, but his value has dropped significantly. Brown is currently being drafted in the middle of the 3rd round in Dynasty Owner startup drafts (ADP 28.5). This is a far cry from last year when he was consistently going in the first round of Dynasty Owner startup drafts. Some drafts had him falling to the second round because of his upcoming contract extension. Regardless, his value has fallen at least a full round in a year. However, I don’t think anything with his Dynasty Owner outlook has changed.
In 2022, Brown was looked at as both a “win now” piece and a dynasty stash piece. That hasn’t changed. Barring injury, he is going to win people their leagues, and he is still only 25 years old. The only thing that has changed is now you have to be more diligent with your salary cap in order to accommodate his salary increase. I will look to add Brown in any of my leagues if someone is looking to trade him. I have no problem paying a premium for him (2023 1st round rookie draft pick), but the salary cap is what has prevented me from obtaining him in more leagues.
As I said in the opening, this is the first article of many in this series. If you want me to talk about any player that is on your mind, you can message me directly on Twitter. Find me at @dynastyjerk and let me know if you have any questions or concerns.
I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.
For many of the orphan teams on the Dynasty Owner platform, all it takes is a little TLC to build a contender. The Dynasty Owners may not have renewed their teams for another season, but with a little cleanup and at a rock bottom price of just $10, you can have a contender.
For those teams, the sun’ll come out tomorrow. People will bet their bottom dollar on a team that was left behind by its old owner. The team will have its cobwebs cleared away, end up with decent draft picks, legitimate building blocks, and be ready to place highly in leagues for the next season and beyond.
How many readers here have ever actually seen Annie?
Point taken. But I’m going with it.
Back to my point, before I was so rudely interrupted by the invisible guy that’s typing snarky stuff in the middle of this article.
Orphan teams that can win are certainly available.
But some orphan teams have tomorrows that aren’t so sunny. They don’t have many draft picks. They might have only a couple of players with any value beyond this year. However, in a couple years when you win money by placing high in a league and have built that team to keep winning for years to come, it’s all worth it.
Neglected, forgotten, and troubled teams. Two of these teams will be the focus of this series of articles. Together, we’ll go through the shock of the initial state of the team, move into free agency, making Free Agent Auction moves, trade improvements, and walk through in-season management with the goal of becoming a contender as soon as possible.
Enough rambling, what are we doing here?
You’re an impatient invisible person who’s typing in the middle of my articles, aren’t you? In order to fully capture the Orphan Experience, I’m going to take a couple of different teams with a couple different backgrounds. One will be from a $1,200 Cash Prize Pool league, and another will be from a Love of the Game league. There are often different levels of engagement from Dynasty Owners depending on the buy-in level, and often the quality of free agents that are available in cash prize pool leagues is thinner with rebuilds being more challenging.
I mean, it’s $10 per orphan team right now. There’s no reason not to snag a couple of teams. Hint hint.
So, you want us to just read all this stuff without knowing who you are?
You seem pretty skeptical. So, by way of introductions, I’m a guy who owns a couple dozen teams on the platform under the team name “All Outta Bubble Gum”. Almost all the teams are orphans. I’m like Dynasty Owner’s own Daddy Warbucks.
Annie again?
I’m dedicated to the gimmick.
Now I’ll give you three reasons why you’ll want to stay tuned to this journey:
I have 29 years of experience in fantasy football, which means that I have 29 years of experience with frustration, heartbreak, bad beats, and even the occasional win or two.
I’m not afraid to look stupid. So, as we go along, I’ll be pointing out the ways in which I trip over myself and fall flat on my face. There is no guarantee that this will work, so I’m prepared to fail publicly and revel in that failure.
I’m going to listen to your feedback. I’ll write a few thousand words, but your insights (no matter how hostile) are welcomed and will be used. Let’s pile on the word count! The beauty of Dynasty Owner is that you can build a roster through 1,000 different methods. I’ll walk through a couple methods here, but they’re not the only ways you can go. At the end of this article, I’ll give you a way to get direct feedback to me that will influence this content.
I’m looking forward to telling you how badly you messed up and watching that whole falling on your face thing as you look like a total moron.
I don’t remember using the term “moron”, but okay.
How about this? I’m looking forward to watching this fail like you did in college and with that whole marriage thing.
That’s getting a little personal, but whatever.
How about this? I’m looking forward to seeing you build these teams into barely passable, mediocre franchises that can’t get past the first round of the playoffs. Can we just call your teams the Dallas Cowboys 1 and 2 and be done with it?
Now that is a step too far! You take that back right now!
Calm down, Jerry Jones.
I’m sorry. I lost my composure. It’s just that there’s only so much a man can take. Dallas Cowboys. That’s too far.
Okay, point taken. So, let’s get to what the teams are already…
Fine. Okay. I’m good now.
The way these teams were selected was through a random draw. I counted all the available teams in both the $1,200 Cash Prize Pool and Love of the Game leagues and used a random number generator to pick the teams that I’d buy.
First, we have a team in a $1,200 Cash Prize Pool league that, well, I’ll let the team speak for itself.
Position
Player
Team
Annual Salary
Years Left on Contract
K
Jason Myers
SEA
$5,275,000
4
K
Justin Tucker
BAL
$6,000,000
5
K
Cairo Santos
CHI
$3,000,000
1
QB
Trevor Lawrence
JAC
$9,198,372
2
QB
Sam Darnold
SF
$4,500,000
1
QB
Zach Wilson
NYJ
$8,787,670
2
RB
Derrick Henry
TEN
$12,500,000
1
RB
Cordarrelle Patterson
ATL
$5,250,000
1
RB
Michael Carter
NYJ
$1,071,842
2
RB
Boston Scott
PHI
$2,000,000
1
RB
Justin Jackson
Free Agent
$1,035,000
0
RB
Julius Chestnut
TEN
$750,000
1
RB
Ty Chandler
MIN
$989,710
3
RB
Ty Johnson
Free Agent
$1,232,500
0
RB
Leonard Fournette
Free Agent
$7,000,000
0
TE
Chigoziem Okonkwo
TEN
$1,041,085
3
TE
Gerald Everett
LAC
$6,000,000
1
TE
Mike Gesicki
NE
$4,500,000
1
WR
Jerry Jeudy
DEN
$3,798,244
1
WR
Drake London
ATL
$5,383,617
3
WR
DeVante Parker
NE
$7,625,000
1
WR
Jauan Jennings
SF
$940,000
1
WR
Chase Claypool
CHI
$1,654,156
1
WR
John Metchie
HOU
$2,017,543
3
WR
Curtis Samuel
WAS
$11,500,000
1
WR
Josh Reynolds
DET
$3,000,000
1
WR
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
KC
$10,000,000
2
WR
David Bell
CLE
$1,273,726
3
TOTAL SALARIES
$127,323,465
Team #1 – 2023 Outlook
2023 Draft Picks
2.04, 3.11
# of Players for 2023
28
Amount Under Cap
036,535
Dynasty Dollars
6.4 million
Amnesty Provisions
4
Team #1 – 2024 Outlook
2024 Draft Picks
1st (1), 2nd (0), 3rd (1)
Players Signed for 2024
11
2024 Salaries
$51,038,565
Summary: Well. We have cap space and Amnesty Provisions. With no 2023 first round picks and only one pick in the top 35, we don’t have the draft capital for a rebuild, but we have to find a way to make a rebuild happen because this team is not contending this season.
Commentary: In $1,200 Cash Prize Pool leagues, people tend to be more competitive. So, there aren’t as many quality free agents available. And when a team’s bad, it’s bad. This one is bad.
There are a couple valuable pieces. I’m keeping Drake London, and that’s about the only automatic keeper I have here. Trevor Lawrence is great, but he isn’t a top-flight quarterback right now and he’s due for a fat raise in a couple years. It may be that he comes into his own just in time for him to cost $55 million a year. If I have to let him go to get assets, I will. We might get something for Derrick Henry, Jerry Jeudy, Chigoziem Okonkwo, and maybe a couple others.
The name of this game will be to get some serviceable players from the Free Agent Auction (if possible) and build 2023 draft capital to get an influx of keepable talent to build off. If this team acquires more rookie draft picks and we get later in the rookie draft and folks are willing to sell us 2024 seconds for our 2023 thirds, for example, we take them up on those offers. This is not a one year rebuild. This team is almost unplayable, so we need to think of this year while making sure we have the pieces to keep building in 2024 and 2025.
The good thing is that with four (FOUR!) Amnesty Provisions, we can take some chances on some higher priced free agents that others may not want. If we get someone like Kyler Murray ($46,100,000) and he were to live up to the level of a top QB, or if we got Mike Williams ($20,000,000) and he found a way to be consistently great for once, we would be able to have them for the next few years. Combine that with cheaper rookie talent and young players we bring on from trades, and that could be a strong nucleus. If Murray and Williams stink, then we have the Amnesty Provisions to get rid of them with minimal harm done.
Next, we have a team in a Love of the Game league:
Position
Player
Team
Annual Salary
Years Left on Contract
K
Brandon McManus
JAC
$4,300,000
2
K
Wil Lutz
NO
$4,050,000
1
K
Zane Gonzalez
SF
$2,250,000
1
QB
Mac Jones
NE
$3,896,588
2
QB
Baker Mayfield
TB
$4,000,000
1
QB
Jameis Winston
NO
$4,000,000
1
QB
Andy Dalton
CAR
$5,000,000
2
RB
D’Andre Swift
PHI
$2,134,729
1
RB
Dameon Pierce
HOU
$1,118,858
3
RB
Miles Sanders
CAR
$6,350,000
4
RB
James Conner
ARI
$7,000,000
2
RB
Antonio Gibson
WAS
$1,233,159
1
RB
Ke’Shawn Vaughn
TB
$1,188,999
1
RB
Travis Homer
CHI
$2,000,000
2
RB
Leonard Fournette
Free Agent
$7,000,000
0
TE
Tyler Higbee
LAR
$7,250,000
1
TE
Tommy Tremble
CAR
$1,231,608
2
TE
Jelani Woods
IND
$1,343,118
3
WR
DK Metcalf
SEA
$24,000,000
3
WR
Stefon Diggs
BUF
$24,000,000
5
WR
Drake London
ATL
$5,383,617
3
WR
DeVante Parker
NE
$7,625,000
1
WR
Tyler Boyd
CIN
$10,750,000
1
WR
Donovan Peoples-Jones
CLE
$870,402
1
WR
Wan’Dale Robinson
NYG
$2,046,292
3
WR
Tutu Atwell
LAR
$1,477,175
2
WR
Kendrick Bourne
NE
$5,000,000
1
TOTAL SALARIES
$146,499,545
Team #2 – 2023 Outlook
2023 Draft Picks
1.01, 3.05, 3.07
# of Players for 2023
27
Amount Under Cap
$10,860,455
Dynasty Dollars
5.8 MM
Amnesty Provisions
2 AP
Team #2 – 2024 Outlook
2024 Draft Picks
1st (1), 2nd (1), 3rd (1)
Players Signed for 2024
14
2024 Salaries
$89,147,256
Summary: A team with some strong core players and the first overall rookie draft pick this year, but a gaping hole at quarterback and a lack of either stars or true depth at running back and tight end. To be determined whether I make a push to win this year, or move assets in a more long-term strategy.
Commentary: This team is in a lot better shape, obviously. And orphans in Love of the Game leagues will likely be stronger than what you find in $600 Cash Prize Pool and $1,200 Cash Prize Pool leagues.
At WR the team has pieces to contend, but the QB situation is pitiful, and the team is missing that sure-fire stud RB piece. The team could also use some work at TE.
And yes. This team has the 1.01 rookie draft pick. The prize asset. The reason that people suffer through a season, or seasons, of losing and through the ridicule of other people in the league.
This year, that pick is going to be Bijan Robinson ($5,489,634). I’ve seen people get cute and pick one of the three top rookie quarterbacks and even Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($3,604,327) once, but generational talents at running back, which is the most consequential fantasy position, don’t come around very often, so you have to grab Bijan.
But here we have to ask… Is this team one running back away from contention?
You’re not about to suggest trading Bijan away, are you?
Well, yes. All this team has other than the 1.01 rookie draft pick is a couple of mid-third round picks. So, the gaping hole at quarterback and the medium-sized hole at tight end are not going to be able to be resolved without trading away some of the assets at wide receiver or running back that would round them out as a contender.
My early strategy here is to see what I can get for the 1.01. If I can drop down only a little bit from the 1.01, add some draft capital, and maybe even pick up a serviceable RB to fill out what is a decent rotation, we might have a chance to put a whole team together. If I can get two mid-first round picks for the 1.01 then maybe I can trade one away to a team that’s building for the future and acquire a legit QB. I like this strategy, especially if I can get and then keep a top 5 rookie draft pick.
I’ll be fine taking Bijan, no doubt, but I think that would end any possible aspirations for this season. We’d have Bijan, Dameon, the two high priced WRs (DK and Diggs) and some other folks who may or may not be good next year. But the gaps at QB and TE would be too much to overcome. If we stay with Bijan and very little other draft capital, it’ll be better to move a piece here or a piece there and pick up young talent or future picks to give us options for the future. I’d rather win now, but I’ll saddle myself with the productive rebuilding team gimmick if need be.
Gimmick? Like that whole Little Orphan Annie gimmick, you started this novella with back when I started reading this five years ago.
I sense sarcasm.
For the sake of wrapping up, the next article will be all about the moves that I’ve made in between columns. What fat got trimmed, who got added from the Free Agent Auction, what trades were made, and how the heck are we going to build draft capital for the future with that second team? And I’ll go through what I look for in roster construction and how I place value on players. It’s not so much about me telling you the capital-B Best Way to Do Things, but just how I do it so that you can develop your own methods.
And of course, your feedback is welcome.
When it comes to feedback, I’ll be taking nominations for nicknames for these teams so that they’re easily distinguishable from each other, and I’ll put my Twitter account in the next-to-last paragraph of the article so you can send me your ideas.
Team names? How about “Doomed to Failure” and “I’d Rather Have Stayed Orphaned”?
Maybe something better than that. Maybe something more hopeful.
Message me on Twitter (@aobgsports) and tell me what you think about all this. I would also appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. The content there is terrific, and well worth the five seconds it’ll take to follow and subscribe.
I’ll leave you with this. If you like what you’ve read, then take what’s been written here and go do it yourself. If you don’t like what you’ve read, then ignore all this junk and go do it better yourself. Either way, go get some orphan teams and have some fun. I’ll be back soon to let you know how this whole crazy mess is going.
Dynasty Owners, welcome back! I believe this will be my last article for a few weeks as my family is getting ready to move into our first home! Exciting right? I know it’s not as exciting as Dynasty Owner startup drafts, so we won’t waste any more time on non-football related things.
The first thing I want to mention is the fact we have so many awesome orphan teams available in the D.O. store right now at a very low price. I clicked on 7 or 8 of these teams and my biggest takeaway is that there are teams for everyone available regardless of if you love a good rebuild, want something you can contend with quickly, or the occasional team that could win a League Championship this year. Be sure to check them all out to find your perfect team and let us know if you purchase one. If you do and you are up for it, one of us can do an article about how we would handle your new roster.
In today’s article I am going to talk about the players I would avoid in each round based on their current startup Dynasty Owner draft ADP. I want to emphasize that being on this list does not mean the player is bad or that I don’t want him on my team, I just see better values with a lower ADP.
All ADPs listed were current as of the afternoon of June 5th.
If you are new here, please don’t click away because you see Patrick Mahomes on this list and allow me to explain. Mahomes is a great player, heck he is a Hall of Famer already, the best quarterback in the NFL and on the Dynasty Owner platform. However, at a salary of $45,000,000 per season, I can’t advise taking him in the first round of a Dynasty Owner startup draft as it will make filling out the rest of your roster extremely tough. In this format, I believe it is imperative to draft high-end players who are still on their rookie contract in the first two rounds of startup drafts and then you can look at veterans with bigger contracts. I believe the perfect spot for Mahomes in startup drafts is the 2-3 turn where you will have multiple picks in a short span to secure a high-end player on a rookie deal to pair with Mahomes and your first-round draft selection. I am not confident that Mahomes’ salary will remain at $45,000,000 a year from now, but I would be more likely to draft him if it were.
Saquon Barkley had a great 2022 season, and I am sure he will be productive in 2023 should he stay healthy for the majority of the season. You may be wondering why he is on this list after that statement and as always, I will explain. While Barkley was great, he has shown himself to be injury prone throughout his career and when you pair that with the expectation of a big new contract I am staying away this early in a startup draft. There are several players I would rather have with a lower ADP. For instance, Rhamondre Stevenson ($1,057,264) is being taken a few picks after Barkley (ADP 24.6) and I’m taking Stevenson ten times out of ten over Barkley here on Dynasty Owner. Stevenson offers huge salary cap savings (over $9,000,000), what should be similar production, and he has another year left on his rookie deal.
I feel like I am hating all of these players and I swear it’s not the case, I just see much better options with a lower ADP. I would bet money none of the players below King Henry will take over games the way Henry has, but the reality is, Henry isn’t a spring chicken anymore and humans don’t get younger, yet. Come on, Elon, we are waiting! With Henry nearing his 30th birthday and a lot of unknowns heading into next season, I can’t draft Henry ahead of players with lower ADPs like Dameon Pierce ($1,118,858), or Tony Pollard ($10,091,000) who are ADP 36.5 and 37.4 respectively and heading into the prime of their careers with a lot less mileage on their body. I would feel comfortable drafting Henry near the 4/5 turn in hopes for one more great year in Tennessee and a roster spot on the Buffalo Bills or another contender come 2024!
I think this was probably the hardest of all the rounds to choose from and it came down to Christian Watson ($2,310,258) and Miles Sanders ($6,350,000) who has an ADP of 48.1. I went with Watson over Sanders simply because of the unknowns for the Packers this season with Jordan Love ($3,095,863) finally getting his chance to shine while Watson’s former quarterback Aaron Rodgers ($50,271,667) is with the New York Jets. I do love the talent of Watson, but he excelled in the red zone last season, and I have to see Jordan Love in the red zone before I can feel confident Watson will be a candidate for double digit touchdowns moving forward. While Watson isn’t a terrible choice here, I would much rather have Michael Pittman ($2,153,213), who has a 54.8 ADP, as I have seen Pittman perform well with below average quarterback play the last couple of seasons.
Alright those of you Jimmy Neutrons out there caught me. Treylon Burks does have an ADP of 62.6 which is technically the sixth round. Yes, I cheated on this one. It was much easier this way, trust me! The only player with an actual fifth round ADP who was considered here was Dalvin Cook ($12,600,000) with all of the news that he will be cut here soon, but I have no doubt he will catch on quick with a contender and have a good year. I went with Burks because I did not see much to be excited about last season and this is coming from a guy who loved Burks coming out of Arkansas. Would I still take a chance on Burks a little later in the draft? Absolutely but not in the early sixth round. I see Jerry Jeudy ($3,798,244) a few spots down with an ADP of 64.9 and I would much rather have him now that Sean Payton is wearing the Broncos’ headset.
Up next, we have another veteran star running back who has had rumors about being released, Joe Mixon. I am not sure Mixon will be released at this point, but I am fairly certain that this will be his last year in a Bengals’ uniform, unless he were to agree to a big pay cut. The Bengals have their three most important players set for new deals in the next year and Mixon will surely become a cap casualty sooner rather than later. Teams have proven to be successful with multiple cheaper running backs and the Bengals will likely be one of the next teams to choose that path. While Mixon is still a huge name and would sell tickets, he is not all that efficient on the field posting just one 100-yard rushing game in 2022 and will more than likely never see a workhorse role after leaving Cincinnati!
It hurts my heart to have Jameson Williams on this list, but there was no getting around it with the news of his six-game suspension. In all honesty, his ADP may drop later on this off-season, but I am not taking Williams before the middle/end of the eighth round. Williams is unbelievably talented but missed a big chunk of his rookie season due to an injury in college and will now miss a big part of his second NFL season because of a gambling suspension. If Williams returns from suspension and turns out to be the player the Lions expected when they drafted him, he will be a steal, but that is a big gamble (see what I did there?) at this point. I forgot to mention the reason having Williams on this list is painful is because I traded Terry McLaurin ($22,788,000) for him a few days before the suspension was announced.
Amari Cooper is being drafted before Terry McLaurin who has an ADP of 103.8. I should probably just stop after this sentence, it’s all I need to write for this one. In all honesty, Cooper is not my main worry with this selection, it’s how bad Deshaun Watson ($46,000,000) looked when he returned from his almost two-year hiatus. If Watson returns to form, this won’t be a bad pick at all, but I am not so sure that will happen as I did not see much of a game-by-game improvement in 2023. Now to my concerns around Cooper! While Cooper has scored over 200.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in each of his four seasons on Dynasty Owner, he has been wildly inconsistent while doing so. It always seems like Cooper blows up or has a single digit game and at such a high salary, I can’t justify selecting him at his ADP in Dynasty Owner startup drafts. Cooper is also getting up there in age and will turn 29 on June 18th. At this point in the draft, be sure to check out your league mates salary cap situations. If most are getting up there in salary, I would save Cooper for the later rounds.
In the 9 spot, we have another player I hate to put on this list as I don’t have my first ever undefeated season without Jamaal Williams on my team, but the reality is that he is another year older and plays for a new team in 2023. While Williams’ new teammate Alvin Kamara ($15,000,000) will likely face a suspension, I am not expecting huge things from Williams in a Saints’ uniform. The reason I say this is because Jamaal Williams needs two things to be effective and that’s a coach who doesn’t mind running it up the middle a lot and getting nothing but a bunch of 3-5 yard gains, and a lot of red zone touches. The red zone touches are my main worry for Williams as the Saints love to use Taysom Hill ($10,000,000) there which will only hurt Williams’ value throughout the season. Another concern is the fact they drafted Kendre Miller ($1,413,580) who has the skill set to be a 3-down back at the NFL level.
I honestly still can’t wrap my head around this selection. I know we all need a kicker or three on our Dynasty Owner rosters, but why so early? In 2022, McPherson was excellent there is no doubt about it, but if I am taking a kicker in the tenth round, I need more than three double digit scoring weeks which is all McPherson had in 2022. McPherson is deserving of being the first kicker off of the board as he is in a high-powered offense, has a dirt-cheap salary, and still has two seasons remaining on his rookie contract, but the tenth round offers way too much talent to draft a player who scored just 113.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last season.
Thank you all for reading and be sure to check out all of the upcoming Dynasty Owner content. We have the Dynasty Owner podcast, the Dynasty Owner Livestream, and articles to help with your Dynasty Owner teams. We also have a brand new content creator joining the team that you’ll surely want to check out. Buy an orphan and good luck on your 2023 Chase for the Ring!
