Category: Uncategorized

Surprise!

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33) and Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl)

The first round of the 2023 NFL Draft is in the books and it’s time to recap for Dynasty Owners what just happened and the salary implications of these first round selections. There was plenty of discussion about how unpredictable this first round was going to be compared to previous drafts, but when the trades started happening and the picks started to roll in, there were more surprises than in Forrest Gump’s box of chocolates. The top surprises have to be (in no particular order):

• The Houston Texans traded up to the third pick immediately after drafting C.J. Stroud with the second pick.
• Will Levis not being drafted in the first round at all after being the betting favorite to be the second pick by the Texans.
• The Buffalo Bills were the first and only team to draft a TE in the first round. They also traded up to get their guy.
• Two RBs (Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs) were top 12 selections after no RB was taken in the first round last year and no RBs had been taken higher than with the #24 pick since Saquon Barkley ($10,091,000) was the overall #2 pick back in the 2018 NFL Draft.

Of course, there were a few things that weren’t surprising at all. Bryce Young being the first pick and the Patriots trading down in the first round for seemingly the 209th consecutive draft happened just as anticipated. The trade down for the Patriots was so unsurprising that we both missed the deal with the Steelers (our two favorite teams) being announced while discussing how to write this article.

All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

All salary information for players selected on Thursday night comes from the Spotrac NFL 2023 Draft Tracker page (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/draft/) and is subject to change and updating. Let’s get to the picks!

1st Pick: Bryce Young (QB – CAR): 4 years/$37,955,071 ($9,488,768 per year)

To the surprise of almost nobody, the Carolina Panthers drafted 2021 Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young from Alabama with the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. In 27 college games over the past two seasons, Young completed 65.9% of his passes (611 completions out of 927 attempts) with 79 passing TDs and only 12 interceptions. He also had 7 rushing touchdowns.

Expect Young to be the Panthers’ starting QB and push veteran Andy Dalton ($5,000,000) to a backup role. The Panthers also have 2022 third round draft pick Matt Corral ($1,273,561) who missed the entire 2022 season with a Lisfranc injury on their roster.

At an anticipated salary of just under $9.5 million, Young will be the highest paid rookie in Dynasty Owner history. His salary will be slightly more than the last two QBs drafted first overall, Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372) in 2021 and Joe Burrow ($9,047,534) in 2020. Both Lawrence and Burrow finished their rookie seasons as a low-range Dynasty Owner Bench QB (Lawrence was QB24 in 2021 and Burrow was QB21 in 2020) before becoming a Starting QB in their second seasons (both finished as QB8).

Steve’s Take: I would expect Dynasty Owners to select Young as either the second or third pick in the first round of the upcoming rookie drafts, but he could slip to the middle of the first round in some leagues. The same progression as Lawrence and Burrow wouldn’t be surprising for Young who should slide into Dynasty Owners’ lineups as a Bench QB depending on the strength of the other QBs on their roster and his weekly matchup. I think the concerns about his size are overblown and he’ll take less punishment than other smaller QBs because of his ability to get rid of the ball instead of taking off and running.

Jay’s Take: As Steve stated, I would expect Young to be taken somewhere between picks 2-5 in our upcoming rookie drafts. Young could not have asked for a better landing spot at the top of the draft as the Panthers have a quarterback friendly coach (Frank Reich) who understands how to ease young signal callers in. I wouldn’t expect a monster first year from Young but if things go well throughout his initial NFL season, I could see Young finishing a hair higher in Year 2 than the QB8 spot both Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence ended up in due to his running abilities. Yes, both Burrow and Lawrence can scramble, but Young is on a different level when it comes to the rushing side of things. Did Carolina get it right? Only time will tell.

2nd Pick: C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU): 4 years/$36,279,243 ($9,069,811 per year)

Despite all of the noise that the Texans would pass on a quarterback with the second pick, they did exactly what they should have done and took their franchise QB in C.J. Stroud. In 25 college games, Stroud completed 69.3% of his passes (575 completions out of 830 attempts) with 85 passing TDs and only 12 interceptions.

At an anticipated salary of close to $9.1 million, Stroud will be making just about as much as Joe Burrow and about $419,000 less per year than Bryce Young. If you traded for or picked up either Davis Mills ($1,304,383) or Case Keenum ($3,125,000) because you thought the Texans wouldn’t draft a QB and you’d have a cheap starting QB, sorry to let you know that you gambled and lost that bet.  

Jay’s Take:  As everyone reading this probably knows, C.J. Stroud is the quarterback at the top of my board, and I do believe he will prove me right when it is time to step onto an NFL field. I was not surprised to see Stroud selected at the #2 spot and because of that I nailed my first two picks in the Draft Pick Challenge. I would have much rather seen Stroud go somewhere with a better receiving corps, but I do believe he is good enough to overcome a subpar team and still put up an impressive stat line for Dynasty Owners during his rookie season. Expect Stroud to be taken before the sixth pick in almost all rookie drafts.

Steve’s Take: I’m proud to say that Stroud to the Texans was my guess in the Draft Pick Challenge and I didn’t waver despite all of the news to the contrary about a defensive player or Will Levis going to the Texans. With that said, I have the 1.03 pick in one Dynasty Owner league and will be happy to take Stroud if the teams ahead of me go with Bijan Robinson and Bryce Young. There’s no reason why he shouldn’t be the Texans’ starter in 2023, be your third QB and used in the Bench QB spot on bye weeks or if you have an injury at the position.

4th Pick: Anthony Richardson (QB – IND): 4 years/$33,994,030 ($8,498,508 per year)

Similar to Carolina, it was pretty clear that the Colts were going to take a QB with their first pick. They stayed at the #4 spot and took the King of the NFL Combine in Anthony Richardson. Richardson’s college stats aren’t very gaudy as he only completed 54.7% of his passes for 3,105 passing yards. He had just 24 passing TDs and 15 interceptions. He did have an impressive 1,116 rushing yards and 12 rushing TD, while averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Remember that sacks count as negative rushing yards in college, so that yards per carry average is deflated a bit. His NFL Combine stats were more impressive as he set the QB record in the vertical jump and tied the record for the broad jump.

At an anticipated salary of nearly $8.5 million, Richardson will be making a similar salary as the third pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Trey Lance ($8,526,319) of the San Francisco 49ers. Interestingly, both were high NFL Draft picks despite not playing a lot of games in college. The Colts hope that Richardson has a better first two NFL seasons than Lance has.

Steve’s Take:  I’ve seen Richardson being taken with the 1.02 pick based on his potential and athleticism in non-Dynasty Owner dynasty leagues that had their rookie drafts before the NFL Draft. Now that he’s been selected with the #4 pick by the Colts and only needs to beat out Gardner Minshew ($3,500,000) to be the Indianapolis starter, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Richardson picked ahead of Young and Stroud in many Dynasty Owner rookie drafts.

Jay’s Take: Now, does everyone see why I have been so enamored with Anthony Richardson? Despite my love for Richardson, I was unable to make this pick correctly as I had Tennessee trading up to third overall to grab Richardson before Indianapolis could get their hands on him. Richardson does have the highest ceiling of all rookies coming out and his ability to run the football could present a Justin Fields ($4,717,989) type floor through Richardson’s first couple of seasons, though he will be a bump up in salary of $3.78 million in salary from Fields. I do believe Richardson is underrated as a passer, but only time will tell. I do know I can’t wait to see the self-proclaimed “Cam Jackson” step on an NFL field.

8th Pick: Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL): 4 years/$21,958,535 ($5,489,634 per year)

The projections of the Falcons taking Bijan Robinson because of how they primarily want to run the ball were there, but I didn’t believe them until Roger Goodell announced this pick. Over the past couple of years, NFL teams were reluctant to draft a RB with a top twenty pick so hearing Robinson being taken in the top ten was a surprise. If anyone can reverse that trend, it’s probably the guy who ran for 3,410 yards and 33 touchdowns in 31 career college games. He also caught 60 passes for 805 receiving yards and 8 receiving touchdowns.

After a 1,000 yard rushing season and RB27 finish in Dynasty Owner as a rookie, Tyler Allgeier ($998,474) is now a backup to Bijan. Does Atlanta move Cordarrelle Patterson ($5,250,000) back to WR (since he still wears #84) or does he become the league’s highest paid kick returner?

At an anticipated salary of just under $5.5 million, Robinson and his new teammate Cordarrelle Patterson will be cashing checks of a similar amount next season. He will also be making a little more than $100,000 than his teammate and fellow #8 pick Drake London ($5,383,617). Right now, Robinson will be the 16th highest paid RB in Dynasty Owner, between David Montgomery ($6,000,000) and Patterson.

Jay’s Take: Wow Bijan to Atlanta! I had seen several mock drafts with this scenario playing out and as foolish as it sounded, it really happened. As talented as Bijan is, I am not a big fan of the landing spot as he will be facing a stacked box every single week barring a Desmond Ridder ($1,340,740) breakout. Bijan is easily the best running back in the Falcons room, but I still see him splitting time with Patterson and Allgeier until he figures out how to block at this level. I do believe this changes nothing in Dynasty Owner drafts as Bijan is a generational talent at a position that is very hard to fill.

Steve’s Take: Part of the appeal of drafting Bijan Robinson with the 1.01 pick in Dynasty Owner was thinking that he’d be picked in the #20 to #28 pick range and have an annual salary of around $3.15 million to $3.6 million. Does having to clear an additional $1.89 million to $2.34 million in salary cap space change the mind of Dynasty Owners with the 1.01 rookie draft pick? Probably not with the landing spot in Atlanta, but it’ll be interesting to see if any Dynasty Owners with the 1.01 pick pass him up.

12th Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET): 4 years/$17,845,131 ($4,461,283 per year)

If Bijan Robinson being drafted eighth by the Falcons was a surprise, then Jahmyr Gibbs at the #12 pick to the Lions was a shocker. The Lions already had D’Andre Swift ($2,134,728) and signed David Montgomery away from Chicago in free agency, so it didn’t seem like RB was a position of need. However, they decided to draft the player who had 1,370 total yards of offense and 10 TDs in his only season at Alabama.

NFL teams used to have workhorse RBs. Then it was the dreaded Running Back by Committee (RBBC) with two RBs being used equally. Maybe now, it’s the 3-headed RB monster after the Eagles seemed to use three RBs last year with Miles Sanders ($6,350,000), Boston Scott ($2,000,000) and Kenneth Gainwell ($953,882) all playing a role in the offense that was ranked fifth in rushing yards and first in rushing TDs in 2022. Or maybe Swift is on his way out of Detroit. We’ll find out soon.

Gibbs’ salary is only about $40,000 less than Gus Edwards ($4,500,000) and more than $460,000 higher than Jamaal Williams ($4,000,000) who had 17 rushing TDs for the Lions last year before signing with the Saints as a free agent.

Steve’s Take: Prior to the NFL Draft, Gibbs seemed like a lock to be the second RB off the rookie draft board and a mid-first round pick in Dynasty Owner rookie drafts. I’m not sure about that at all now that he’ll be competing for touches with Montgomery and Swift and getting paid $1.46 million to close to $2.08 million more than if he was taking at the end of the first round or the top of the second round. This curveball of a pick has me unsure of exactly where Gibbs will be drafted once Dynasty Owner rookie drafts start up.

Jays Take: I don’t think Steve could have explained this pick any better, but I will attempt to repaint the Mona Lisa. Gibbs to Detroit was one of, if not, the biggest surprise in the NFL Draft first round. Going into the night I had Gibbs as my second player off the board in many Dynasty Owner drafts, but I do believe that will likely change with him landing in Detroit. The one big plus that comes with Gibbs landing in Detroit is the fact I could see the Lions running the ball more than any other team in the NFL with the 3-headed monster they have in the backfield. Between Gibbs, Montgomery and Swift, the Lions will always have a talented back with fresh legs in the backfield. The pick is great for what Detroit wants to do but horrible for Dynasty Owners as Gibbs will now be in a committee role for at least his rookie season.

20th Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA): 4 years/$14,417,307 ($3,604,327 per year)

No surprise that Smith-Njigba was the first WR taken in the NFL Draft, but most people had a WR being picked earlier than with the 20th pick. He missed almost all of the 2022 college football season after having 95 receptions for 1,606 yards and 9 TDs in 2021 for Ohio State. He had more receptions and receiving yards than a pair of teammates who were both drafted in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, Garrett Wilson ($5,138,502) and Chris Olave ($4,817,969).

The landing spot is very good. Smith-Njigba will be the WR3 in Seattle right away and could produce good results for his Dynasty Owners. He’ll also be able to develop and learn from both DK Metcalf ($24,000,000) and Tyler Lockett ($17,250,000). His Dynasty Owner salary of slightly over $3.6 million puts him at nearly the same salary as Treylon Burks ($3,592,398) and about $100,000 more than CeeDee Lamb ($3,502,503).

Jay’s Take: In all honesty I totally whiffed on this selection. I did not have the Seahawks taking a receiver until Round 2, but it’s the Seahawks and they tend to surprise me every year. If Geno Smith ($25,000,000) is able to continue his above average quarterback play, this selection should work out nicely as Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the most talented receiver in the class in my opinion. I am worried about the amount of work Smith-Njigba will see during his rookie season with both Lockett and Metcalf on the same roster, but come Year 2, I would expect big things from the former Buckeye. I see Smith-Njigba as a lock to go in the 3-8 range of our rookie drafts and at $3,604,327 per season, he won’t take up much salary cap space.

Steve’s Take: Even though he’ll be the most expensive rookie WR, his salary is very similar to the others taken in the first round. I believe that it’ll be just like last year when there were several WRs in the same salary range and it was a matter of personal preference which one Dynasty Owners drafted first. I don’t agree and feel like Smith-Njigba is more of a “sure thing” after the success of Wilson and Olave last year, so Dynasty Owners should be prepared to draft Smith-Njigba in the upper portion of the first round of their rookie drafts.

21st Pick: Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC): 4 years/$14,188,778 ($3,547,195 per year)

Johnston was the second WR drafted on Thursday night by the Los Angeles Chargers. Johnston had a solid career at TCU with 115 receptions for 2,190 receiving yards and 14 TDs in 30 career college games. He averaged 19.0 yards per reception for his college career.

Similar to Smith-Njigba, he will be able to learn from a pair of veteran WRs in Keenan Allen ($20,025,000) and Mike Williams ($20,000,000) and step into the Chargers’ offense as the WR3. He should also have Justin Herbert ($6,644,688) as his QB for his entire rookie contract, which is similar to the rookie contracts for both Burks and Lamb, just like Smith-Njigba.

Steve’s Take: If you watched the Dynasty Owner Livestream about rookie WRs or heard Jay and I discuss rookie WRs on the podcast, then you may recall the poor track record of Big 12 WRs in the NFL. It’s caused me to downgrade Johnston, although this landing spot and salary have improved my outlook for him. I think he’s a late first round Dynasty Owner rookie draft pick and could drop down further depending on what WRs are drafted and who drafts them during the second and third rounds of the NFL Draft on Friday.

Jay’s Take: While I do agree with Steve’s take, I still believe our Dynasty Owners will take Johnston before 1.09 pick in most, if not all, rookie drafts. The landing spot is not the best with the Chargers already having two top tier receivers in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen but with Herbert’s extension looming this could be the last dance for Allen in a Chargers’ uniform. If that scenario plays out and Johnston ends up hitting, he could be an absolute steal while paired with Herbert and the oft-injured Williams. If you’re drafting Johnston, you will need to be patient, but it could pay off in a big way come 2024. Johnston does come with extra risk in my opinion as we rarely see Big 12 receivers succeed at this level.

22nd Pick: Zay Flowers (WR – BAL): 4 years/$14,036,434 ($3,509,109 per year)

Last year, Jameson Williams ($4,365,448) was the third WR taken in a row with the 12th pick by the Detroit Lions. I bet that the Ravens don’t want the start of Flowers’ NFL career to mirror that of Williams. That’s probably not a fair comparison as Flowers is several inches shorter than Williams and had several solid college seasons with 200 receptions for 3,056 receiving yards and 29 receiving TDs, compared to one monster season in college for Williams.

Baltimore has quite the collection of WRs led by Odell Beckham Jr. ($15,000,000), Rashod Bateman ($3,149,853) and Nelson Agholor ($3,250,000). The only player who had over 50 receptions and 500 receiving yards for the Ravens last year was TE Mark Andrews ($14,000,000) so as a rookie, Flowers could compete with Beckham to be the WR1.

Jay’s Take: I know a ton of experts who love Zay Flowers and while I think he is a good football player I was shocked to see him go ahead of a player like Jordan Addison. I am not sure if it is because they are both smaller receivers drafted by Baltimore later in the first round, but I see Hollywood Brown ($13,413,000) being Zay Flowers’ ceiling in the NFL. This could be lower as he realistically could end up as the fourth option for at least most of 2023 on a team that loves to run the ball. I would not draft Flowers until at least pick 1.11 or 1.12 in Dynasty Owner rookie drafts. Flowers is much more likely to be good versus great when he steps on an NFL field.

Steve’s Take: Last year, many people thought Rashod Bateman would have a breakout season because of all of the catches vacated by the Ravens trade of Brown to Arizona. Bateman had touchdowns in his first two games to start the 2022 season, was injured and missed most of the season. If Bateman comes back healthy and Beckham returns to his prior form, Flowers could be the WR3 behind both of them as well as Andrews in the passing game pecking order. That might be wishful thinking, but it could keep Flowers from being anything other than a late first round or early second round Dynasty Owner rookie draft pick.

23rd Pick: Jordan Addison (WR – MIN): 4 years/$13,731,737 ($3,432,934 per year)

Addison won the Fred Biletnikoff Award as the most outstanding receiver in college football in 2021 with Pitt, then transferred to USC and had a solid, but statistically inferior 2022 season with fewer receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. In 35 college games over three seasons, he had 219 receptions for 3,134 receiving yards and 29 touchdown receptions.

The release of Adam Thielen ($8,333,333) and his subsequent signing with Carolina leaves an opening opposite Justin Jefferson as a starter for the Vikings. Even in a down year, Thielen was still WR48 and scored 180.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. K.J. Osborn ($890,693) is still around though to provide competition for Addison too. Osborn produced had 85.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points with four games of double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points in his last five games of 2022.

Steve’s Take: At best, Addison will be the third option in the Minnesota passing game behind Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson ($9,392,000) and ahead of Osborn. That’s not a bad spot for a rookie WR in my estimation. Addison was able to do well at both Pitt and USC, so he’s not afraid of, or unfamiliar, with change. If he can play as well as Osborn did at the end of last season, he could be the top rookie WR in 2023 and be worth a mid-to-late first round pick in your Dynasty Owner rookie draft.

Jay’s Take: With the 23rd selection of the 2023 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings select Jay’s favorite pick of the first round. The Vikings got an absolute steal this late in the first round and the fact Addison will be playing across from Justin Jefferson ($3,280,701) will only help his transition to the NFL. I know Jefferson’s presence will scare some away from drafting Addison, but it should do just the opposite. As Jefferson continues to get better, teams must throw more defenders at him which means Addison will see 1-on-1 matchups a ton throughout his first few seasons. Addison is a great route runner and should be a seamless fit in the Vikings offense. Despite being the fourth receiver taken in the NFL draft, Addison should be in contention to be the first receiver in Dynasty Owner rookie drafts with a great landing spot and a lower salary than the other first round picks at his position.

25th Pick: Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF): 4 years/$13,427,022 ($3,356,756 per year)

Buffalo was the only team to draft a TE in the first round of the NFL Draft and they ended up going with Dalton Kincaid from Utah over Michael Mayer from Notre Dame with the pick. Kincaid had a stellar college career with 16 receiving TDs, 107 receptions and 1,414 receiving yards.

This rates as a mild surprise as Mayer was seen as the more likely first TE drafted. Buffalo was not one of the teams who most envisioned would draft a TE in the first round since they signed Dawson Knox ($13,000,000) to a 4-year contract extension back in September.  We’ll see if any stories come out about how the Bills tried to move up a few spots in the first round and failed before doing so to draft Kincaid since they were seen as more likely to draft a WR or RB in the first round.

Kincaid will cost about the same salary as a pair of Minnesota Vikings WRs, Justin Jefferson and Jalen Reagor ($3,317,669), for the 2023 Dynasty Owner season. Bills’ fans shouldn’t be expecting him to be anywhere near as good as Jefferson who was WR1 last season with 374.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. However, they hope he’s better than Reagor who has scored barely over 200.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in his first three years in the NFL.

Jay’s Take:  I have to say this pick was a shocker and I am surprised the Bills did not cough up a fourth or fifth round pick to move up and take whatever receiver they liked most over a tight end after just signing Dawson Knox to a big deal. I have to believe the Bills will use Knox as more of a blocker while splitting Kincaid out wide as more of a receiver, at least until Kincaid bulks up and holds his own while blocking. I will need some time before I have a final ranking on Kincaid on my big board, but this selection should solidify him as a late first round pick in Dynasty Owner rookie drafts.

Steve’s Take: Splitting time with Knox at TE should depress Kincaid’s Dynasty Owner rookie draft value even as he’ll be more affordable than almost all of the other top TEs. No rookie TE had over 100.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last year with Chigoziem Okonkwo’s ($1,041,085) 97.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and TE24 finish being the best. Depending on the landing spots and salaries of other TEs, Kincaid should still be the first one off the board in Dynasty Owner rookie drafts, but that might not happen until the second round.

Conclusion

The first round is in the books and it ended with the Chiefs picking a defensive end from Kansas State and a cover band singing “(You Gotta) Fight for Your Right (to Party!)” by the Beastie Boys. If you had Felix Anudike-Uzomah at the #31 pick and the other 30 picks before him correct, then congratulations on winning $10,000 and the Draft Pick Challenge. Of course, you probably should have turned in an entry as it appears that seven people tied at the top with four correct picks. None of them had Devon Witherspoon from Illinois as the fifth pick by Seattle and that’s when the dream scenario ended.

In case you were wondering, both of us tied in the Draft Pick Challenge. Steve had the first two picks correct, missed the selection of Will Anderson with the third pick in the draft then had no more correct picks. Nearly identical to last year’s Draft Pick Challenge when he had the first three picks correct (Travon Walker, Aiden Hutchinson and Darryl Stingley Jr.) then none afterwards. Jay also had the top two picks correct, but then had Anthony Richardson going third with the Titans trading up to snipe him from the Colts.

The top names remaining to be selected on Friday night during the second round of the NFL Draft are definitely Kentucky QB Will Levis and Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer. Pittsburgh has the first pick in the second round because of the Chase Claypool ($1,654,156) trade with Chicago at last year’s trade deadline, while Arizona has the second pick. Neither would appear to be likely landing spots for either Levis or Mayer, so maybe we’ll see a team trade up to draft one of those guys with the first pick in the second round. They both also may have to wait even longer to find out what team’s uniform they will be wearing next season.

Jay and I will be back over the weekend with a similar recap of selected picks from the second and third rounds of the NFL Draft and from the fourth through seventh rounds on Monday. There was a lot of Dynasty Owner content released this week as Matt Morrison – The Jerk had his first Best Case, Worse Case article published on Monday, my article discussing players who might lose their jobs was published on Tuesday and the latest episode of the Dynasty Owner podcast dropped on Wednesday morning.

Don’t forget that the Livestream will be on Friday at 10 AM (Eastern) so Tim and Steve can react (and overreact to what happened in the first round of the NFL Draft) and debate who’s going to draft Levis and Mayer. Prior episodes of the Livestream are available on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel. Please remember to give the Livestream a Thumbs Up and help out Dynasty Owner. It is appreciated. Finally, don’t forget to follow Dynasty Owner on Twitter. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

Follow Steve, Jay and Dynasty Owner on Twitter:

@SteveVT33, @Jaypoundsnfl and @Dynasty_Owner

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

What a happy and uplifting article title! While the title sounds a little bit harsh, it’s not as bad as it could be since being a professional football player is actually a little bit of a growth industry right now with the return of the XFL this year and the USFL being in its second year. Admittedly, those XFL and USFL salaries are a fraction of the NFL league minimum salary of $750,000 per year, but it’s better than what’s happening at other companies. A quick search finds layoffs at ESPN started on Monday and there were large layoffs just last week at Whole Foods, Meta, Opendoor, Lyft and Deloitte.

Last season, each NFL team could have a 53-man roster, so that’s a total of 1,590 NFL player jobs. No expansion on the horizon so the only way that number of jobs is going to go up is if NFL roster sizes increase. As a result, there will be the same number of NFL players in 2023 as there were in 2022. I know that there are players on Injured Reserve, players are signed and cut on a daily basis (especially kickers) and teams can have up to 16 players on their practice squads, so the real number of jobs is larger. The point is that the NFL isn’t like the private sector in that they have a roster limit as well as a salary cap. If a NFL team really likes a couple of players at the same position, they have to make the difficult decision to cut one of them or keep them and cut somebody else. For every player coming out of college this year (drafted or undrafted) who goes to training camp and tries out for a NFL roster, there is one veteran player who is going to training camp and fighting to keep his roster spot.

Last year, we had the situation with Chase Claypool ($1,654,156) announcing the Steelers’ second round selection of George Pickens ($1,688,045). Twitter went ablaze with comments about how Claypool just welcomed his replacement to the team. At least that’s how I remember it. Now, I can’t find any of those comments now despite multiple searches of Twitter. Of course, the Steelers denied this, and everyone spent the off-season figuring out how to rank Claypool, Pickens and Diontae Johnson ($18,355,000) and the Steelers’ offense. Then right before the NFL trade deadline in November, the Steelers indeed did trade Claypool to the Chicago Bears.

Will the same thing happen in 2023? If so, what team, player and draft pick will be involved? If you can predict this, then I need to talk with you more in depth prior to making any future gambling bets. You also need to join the Dynasty Owner Draft Pick Challenge, earn yourself $10,000 for picking the perfect first round and change your name to Nostradamus.

In an effort to try and predict what will happen in the NFL labor market this season and before this week’s NFL Draft, let’s look at some players who could be losing their starting job this season. Not all of these players will be on the bench Week 1 as sometimes it takes a few weeks for a rookie to work his way into the starting lineup, like Kenny Pickett ($3,516,976) or Ken Walker ($2,110,395) did last year. Others will be the starter on Day 1, like Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372) was in Jacksonville back in 2021. Despite what happened last year with Claypool and Pickens, it’s doubtful that any of these players will be announcing their replacement since Roger Goodell does all of the first round pick announcements and most of these observations are first round NFL Draft predictions.

All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Contract information for all players can be found on the Dynasty Owner platform. Just go to the player’s profile page and click Contract to see if there is any new contract news.

For the purposes of this article, salaries and roster percentages were current as of the morning of April 25th.

Quarterback

It should come as no surprise that several teams are expected to draft players they expect to be their franchise QBs on Thursday night. Carolina and Indianapolis seem to be locks to draft a QB, while there are stories that Houston might not go with a QB at the #2 spot in the draft. I won’t believe that until it actually happens though and will fill out my personal Draft Pick Challenge entry accordingly. The most likely current “starting” QBs who are losing their job are:

1. Andy Dalton (QB – CAR): 1 year/$5,000,000 – 51.49% roster percentage

This is pretty obvious as Carolina appears to be completely locked into drafting a QB and making their #1 draft pick the starter. Dalton is the veteran backup who mentors the #1 pick while he learns on the job. Dalton was the starter for most of 2022 in New Orleans and finished as QB23 in Dynasty Owner. He had 210.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 13 games played, which is an average of just 16.22 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. That’s not nearly enough production to survive as the starter in Carolina unless their #1 pick gets injured during training camp. Dalton will likely be holding a clipboard and wearing a headset for the 2023 season.

• Gardner Minshew (QB – IND): 1 year/$3,500,000 – 95.32% roster percentage

As Yogi Berra said, “It’s déjà vu all over again.” Minshew was the Jaguars incumbent starting QB before they drafted Trevor Lawrence and now, he’s listed as the Colts starting QB. Even though they signed Minshew to a free agent contract this off-season, it appears that after four consecutive seasons of starting a different veteran QB after the surprise retirement of Andrew Luck, the Colts are going to draft a QB in the first round of the NFL Draft. Whether they stay at the fourth spot in the first round or move up, it’s going to happen. The big question is which QBs will be available to them and which one they select. Either way, that makes Minshew a backup (once again).

• Davis Mills (QB – HOU): 2 years/$1,304,383 – 98.72% roster percentage

Mills is in the third spot because while I think Houston should take their QB of the future with the second pick in the NFL Draft, it’s not a lock that they do it and Mills becomes the backup. Going with Mills and Case Keenum ($3,125,000) as the QB duo in Houston is just as bad as last year when the Texans had Mills, Kyle Allen ($1,232,500) and Jeff Driskel ($1,080,000) all play QB in at least one game.

There are a few other teams that may need a QB, such as Atlanta, Las Vegas, Minnesota, Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Washington. Depending on how things progress with Lamar Jackson ($32,416,000) and his contract situation, the Ravens could be added to this list too . However, I don’t think that any of those teams take a QB in the first round this year who will start Week 1, so their current starting QB can rest easy about his job. For now.

Running Back

Running backs are different as NFL teams are reluctant to draft RBs in the first round now. Bijan Robinson might be different though and he could be the highest RB drafted since the Giants took Saquon Barkley ($10,091,000) with the second overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Since then, the highest first round pick spent on a RB is the 24th pick and last year, Breece Hall ($2,253,694) was the first RB taken with the fourth pick in the second round (36th overall pick). Pretty much whichever team drafts Bijan Robinson in the first round is making him their starting RB and their current starter becomes a backup or is let go. Here are the RBs most likely to be out of a starting job by the end of the week.

1. Joe Mixon (RB – CIN): 2 years/$12,000,000 – 100% roster percentage

If the Bengals are able to draft Bijan Robinson with the 28th pick in the first round, then the stories about the Bengals asking Mixon to take a pay cut or be released will be much more real than they are today. It’s possible that Mixon stays with Cincinnati if they draft Robinson, or even if Robinson is taken earlier and the Bengals draft Jahmyr Gibbs. Either way, Mixon is my top choice to lose his starting job and maybe even be cut after the NFL Draft. That wouldn’t exactly be terrible news for Dynasty Owners with Mixon though as they can drop him and his $12 million contract for free if he’s released. They could also hold on to him until he signs with a new team or accepts a restructured deal with the Bengals and pocket the salary cap savings.

• James Conner (RB – ARI): 2 years/$7,000,000 – 100% roster percentage

The Cardinals won’t take Bijan Robinson with the third overall pick, but the Cardinals could trade down with a team anxious to move up and draft a QB if the Texans don’t take one with the second pick. I’m struggling to come up with a team that has a late round pick who might make a deal with Arizona, but you never know. Even if they use their first round pick on someone other than a RB, they still have the 34th overall pick (third pick of the second round) and could grab Gibbs with it. With no Kyler Murray ($46,100,000) for the start of the 2023 season, a RB duo of Gibbs and Conner could be an option for the Cardinals. None of the other RBs on the Cardinals current roster are safe from being released, so adding a RB at some point in the NFL Draft should happen and if it’s an early round pick, Conner could lose his starting job.

I’m going to stop at two players here as the main other potential landing spots for Robinson are places that don’t really have a true starting RB (Atlanta, Buffalo, Miami, and Philadelphia) so nobody is technically losing a job in my opinion. Dallas remains a possibility since Tony Pollard ($10,091,000) is only signed to a franchise tag and they have no backup after releasing Ezekiel Elliott ($15,000,000). There were stories about a week ago about the Chargers drafting Bijan with the 21st pick, but if that happens and they trade Austin Ekeler ($6,125,000) then Ekeler becomes the starter for whatever team trades for him. I’m not going to speculate on that potential outcome right now as I think Ekeler stays in powder blue for at least this upcoming season.

Wide Receiver

Pretty much every NFL team could draft a WR in one of the first couple of rounds and that draft pick could end up as a starter. Cincinnati might be the only exception with Ja’Marr Chase ($7,704,910), Tee Higgins ($2,171,696) and Tyler Boyd ($10,750,000). Personally, I don’t think Dallas will draft a WR early since they have CeeDee Lamb ($3,502,503), Brandin Cooks ($19,882,000) and Michael Gallup ($11,500,000) occupying the top three spots on their WR depth chart. Jerry Jones is liable to do anything though, so I can’t rule it out completely. However, there are teams who are more likely than others to draft a WR early and install that draft pick as an immediate starter and demote these players.

1. Gabriel Davis (WR – BUF): 1 year/$998,595 – 100% roster percentage

Last year’s fantasy breakdown darling is now this year’s prime candidate to take a back seat in the Bills’ offense. His 2022 Dynasty Owner start-up draft ADP was 66.3 and he finished the 2022 season as WR30 and the overall #87 ranked player with 177.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 15 games played (11.83 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game). That’s not bad, but it’s a far cry from what people were anticipating prior to the season. With only one season remaining on his rookie contract, are the Bills going to keep Davis or find a replacement with the 27th pick in the first round? If Bijan Robinson is somehow still there, the answer is a resounding No, but if Bijan is gone, it’s possible. Khalil Shakir ($1,001,787) could have also been listed here as he’s the Bills’ WR3 right now after Buffalo released Isaiah McKenzie ($1,232,500) in mid-March, but I went with the higher profile name and the guy who was a starter last season instead.

• Chris Moore (WR – TEN): 1 year/$1,187,500 – 14.04% roster percentage

By the time this is published, Moore may have an updated salary on the Dynasty Owner platform as he signed a few days ago with Tennessee, but without a listed salary for the 2023 season. The $1,187,500 amount was his 2022 salary, but I wouldn’t expect it to rise much over the league minimum for a player with his years of service. I also don’t expect him to be one of the Titans’ starting WRs when the 2023 season starts either. Right now, the top returning Tennessee WR is 2022 first round pick Treylon Burks ($3,592,398). The only WR other than Moore who has played in the NFL for more than two seasons is Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($1,260,000). I’ve got Westbrook-Ikhine as more likely than Moore to remain as a starter and will hold to that even if the Titans wait until the second round to draft a WR as taking one with the 11th overall pick seems a bit too high unless they go with Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

• Noah Brown (WR – HOU): 1 year/$2,600,000 – 57.02% roster percentage

Chris Moore’s replacement in Houston appears to be former Cowboys WR Noah Brown who had a career best 111.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last season and finished as WR62. John Metchie ($2,017,543) who was drafted in the second round by Houston last year, but sat out the entire 2022 season after being diagnosed with leukemia, may be back to push for a starting spot as well. Because the Texans already have Robert Woods ($7,625,000) and Nico Collins ($1,217,879), if they indeed draft a WR with the 12th pick or even with the second pick in the second round, Brown could be out of a job in Houston completely, not just out of a starting WR job. Way too early to predict that, but Brown seems much less likely to stick around than Collins, Metchie, and Woods if the Texans use a high pick on WR.

• Romeo Doubs (WR – GB): 3 years/$1,085,979 – 99.57% roster percentage
• Samouri Toure (WR – GB): 1 year/$934,252 – 19.57% roster percentage

Yes, those are indeed the current two starting WRs in Green Bay besides Christian Watson ($2,310,258) now that Allen Lazard ($11,000,000) has left for New York City to play with Aaron Rodgers for the Jets. The fact that the Packers might finally draft a WR in the first round for Jordan Love ($3,095,863) after never doing so for Rodgers is pretty comical. It’s pretty likely to happen with the Packers sitting with the 13th overall pick in the first round thanks to finally completing the trade of Rodgers to the Jets. If I had to bet on who the Packers starting WRs were going to be at the beginning of the 2023 season, I’d go with Watson, whichever WR they draft first in the 2023 NFL Draft and a veteran free agent like Jarvis Landry ($3,000,000) or Demarcus Robinson ($1,035,000).

Teams like Baltimore, Minnesota and the Los Angeles Rams are also in the market for WRs and any of the Baltimore WRs or K.J. Osborn ($890,693) could have made the top 5 list above. However, with the Ravens and Vikings having two of the top receiving TEs out there, I decided to leave them off. The Rams do have an early second round pick (fifth pick in the second round and 36th overall pick) and they might be drafting whoever is going to play opposite Cooper Kupp ($26,700,000) with that pick. There are also teams like Seattle and the Los Angeles Chargers who have two veteran, high-salary WRs as their starters but could be looking for replacements in the future, not necessarily in 2023.

Tight End

With an expected bumper crop of rookie TEs, several teams could be drafting a player who they hope turns into the next Travis Kelce ($14,312,500) early in this year’s NFL Draft. These are players who might be taking snaps with the second team come training camp as a result.

1. Irv Smith Jr. (TE – CIN): 1 year/$1,750,000 – 97.87% roster percentage

The Bengals don’t really need another weapon on offense for Joe Burrow ($9,047,534), do they? The argument was there that they didn’t need one last year either, but ended up signing Hayden Hurst ($7,250,000) to a one-year deal and he finished as TE20 with 110.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Hurst is more durable than Irv Smith Jr., his current replacement in Cincinnati, as Hurst has missed only 11 games in five NFL seasons. Smith missed 9 games last season and has missed 29 games in four NFL seasons, including the entire 2021 season. The end of the first round seems like an ideal spot for the Bengals to get whichever available TE they want the most and move Smith into a backup role.

• Josiah Deguara (TE – GB): 1 year/$1,136,941– 26.81% roster percentage

In addition to needing help at WR, the Packers also need a starting TE. With the departure of Robert Tonyan ($2,650,000) to Chicago, the only TEs on the Packers’ roster who caught a pass in 2022 are Deguara and Tyler Davis ($1,040,000) who had a combined 17 receptions last year and 47 career receptions. If WR is the top position of need for Green Bay, then TE is close behind in second place. Don’t be surprised if the Packers take a TE with their first round pick, then a WR with their second round pick. After all, they haven’t taken a first round TE since Bubba Franks back in 2000, which is even longer since they drafted a WR in the first round (Javon Walker in 2002). 

There are plenty of other teams who could take an early round TE with Dallas, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami and Washington being most likely. All of them have multiple TEs on their current depth chart already, but there’s no real clear-cut starter for four of these teams. Washington is the exception with Logan Thomas ($8,021,667) clearly at the top of the Commanders depth chart. However, I think both Cincinnati and Green Bay are more likely to draft an early round TE and make Smith and Deguara backups to a rookie.

Conclusion

Not all of the dozen players listed above is guaranteed to lose their job and if they do, most will still be employed in the NFL during the 2023 season. We’ll know this Thursday night (April 27th) starting at 8 PM who gets drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft, followed by the second and third rounds on Friday night (April 28th) starting at 7 PM. The final four rounds (Rounds 4-7) are held on Saturday (April 29th) starting at Noon. All times are Eastern, even though the draft is in Kansas City, which is located in the Central Time Zone.

Thanks for reading and being a Dynasty Owner. All existing teams are now under the $157.36 million salary cap (unless a recent contract change put them over) and new start-up Dynasty Owner league drafts commence on May 6th. Rookie drafts will have a staggered start in May as well. Time to get a new team and prepare those existing teams for the rookie drafts.

In addition to this article, Matt Morrison – The Jerk had his first Best Case, Worse Case article published on Monday, while Jay Pounds and I will have a NFL Draft first round reaction article on Friday. Jay and I will also have a new Dynasty Owner podcast dropping this week before the NFL Draft and the Livestream will be on Friday at 10 AM (Eastern) so Tim and I can react (and overreact to what happened in the first round of the NFL Draft). Prior episodes of the Livestream are available on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel. Please remember to give us a Thumbs Up and help out Dynasty Owner. It is appreciated. Finally, don’t forget to follow Dynasty Owner on Twitter. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello Dynasty Owners and welcome. This will be the last article you read from me before we know all the results of the 2023 NFL Draft. Given that this is the last article before the draft, I will speculate on some of the best and worst case NFL Draft scenarios for five top current NFL players. In fact, I’m planning on turning the Best Case, Worst Case article into a four-part series. In it, I will discuss roughly 20 top tier players while giving their ceilings for the upcoming year as well as their floor. Today, I’ll center my discussions on players who may be impacted by what their team does in the NFL Draft, but I’ll also weave in some season long best and worst scenarios.

Jordan Love ($3,095,863)

Jordan Love is in the final year of his rookie contract. Despite being in the league for three full years, he has only 50 completions and started only one game. With Aaron Rodgers ($50,271,667) almost surely moving on from the Packers, Love will be the starter in Green Bay.

Best Case: The best case for Love in the 2023 NFL Draft is that he remains as the starting quarterback. This may seem like an obvious statement, but if the Packers use a Day 1 or Day 2 pick on QB, then there will be at least some sort of competition for the starting spot over the next couple of years. I still believe Love would be the best option, but it makes the situation more dubious. The good news is that the Top 4 quarterbacks in this draft (Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis) should be gone by the time the Packers pick at 15th spot overall. In addition to no early QB picks, a first round wide receiver would do wonders for Love’s confidence. With the 15th pick, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) could be available. This may not be the best landing spot for JSN, but Dynasty Owners with Love on their rosters would be happy.

Worst Case: The worst case for Love is that the Packers trade up into the Top 10 picks to select one of the aforementioned Top 4 QBs. This would be devastating to Love’s potential starting job because the new quarterback would have much more draft capital and would put extreme pressure on Love. Pair this with the fact that they would likely have to trade away their 1.15 pick to move up, and now you are looking at a new QB as well as no wide receiver taken in the first round. I’m not projecting this for the Packers, but it is possible.

Tony Pollard ($10,091,000)

Pollard is set to be the primary running back for the high powered Dallas offense. He impressed last year to the tune of a RB9 finish in Dynasty Owner despite relatively low volume. There is no doubt in my mind that the Cowboys will add another RB through free agency or the draft as their next best RB is Ronald Jones ($1,232,500).

Best Case: Best case for Pollard is that the Cowboys add a Day 3 running back to the mix while also adding an offensive lineman in one of the first two rounds. You may be asking, “why would adding a running back be a good thing?” My answer is that there is no way the Cowboys don’t draft at least one running back this year. The hope for Dynasty Owners with Pollard is that the pick is late enough so that he is just a depth add and not a fundamental running back for the team.

Worst Case: Worst case for Pollard is that Jahmyr Gibbs slips to them at 26th overall and he is their selection. This would not completely destroy Pollard’s fantasy value, but it would take a big bite out of it.

Ken Walker III ($2,110,395)

Walker is my favorite player to talk about when we talk about the NFL Draft. His range of outcomes is extremely variable. Let’s talk about the good first.

Best Case: Best case for Walker is that the Seahawks pass on QB with their first 1st round pick (1.05) and that they pass on running back with their second 1st round pick (1.20). My ultimate fear for Walker is that Bijan Robinson or Gibbs will be taken by the Seahawks. I don’t see that happening, but it’s possible. As long as Ken survives the first and second round as the only reliable starting running back for Seattle, then he should be in fine shape. To a lesser extent, an athletic QB (like Anthony Richardson) would damage a small portion of Walker’s fantasy upside. If the Seahawks take Richardson, I would still expect a full year of Geno Smith ($25,000,000) in 2023, but after that it could be Richardson’s team.

Worst Case: Worse case, in my opinion, would be that the Seahawks take Richardson at 1.05 and Gibbs at 1.20. I think the Richardson pick could happen, but I would say there’s less than a 5% chance they take Gibbs (or any RB) with the 20th pick.

Isaih Pacheco ($934,777)

Pacheco has several things going for him that make me feel negatively. First is the fact that the Chiefs have virtually no draft capital invested in him since he was drafted in the 7th round last year. Second is the fact that recently the Chiefs have had no problem moving on from seemingly more talented running backs even if they do have draft capital, think Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($2,705,393).

Best Case: Best case for Pacheco is that the Chiefs draft a wide receiver in the first round, and they stay away from running back until Day 3 of the NFL Draft. I think this scenario is likely as running backs should be pretty far down on their list of needs. Like most teams, I expect the Chiefs to take a chance on a late round running back at some point.

Worst Case: Worst case for Pacheco is that the Chiefs pull off a carbon copy of what they did when they drafted Edwards-Helaire as the last pick in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. The Chiefs once again have the last pick in the first round. As devastating as this would be to both Pacheco and Edwards-Helaire, I don’t think this is likely. As I said above, the Chiefs have more problems than the running back position. Also, at the 31st pick, we would be talking about the 3rd or 4th RB taken in the NFL Draft.

DK Metcalf ($24,000,000)

Pardon me for talking about two Seahawks in this article, but I am very fascinated by what this team will do with two picks inside the Top 20 overall. Metcalf could be a direct winner or loser based on how this first round ends up.

Best Case: The best case for DK in the long run is that Geno Smith completes at least the 2023 season as the Seattle QB and then hands the reins off to an accurate, capable pocket passer. In this case, I would love to see the Seahawks get C.J. Stroud. The fact is that Stroud is less willing to take off and run when comparing him to the other top QBs in the class (Young, Richardson and Levis). This bodes well for more passing and more attempts for every Seattle receiver.

Worst Case: This is the best part about Metcalf for the next couple of years…I really don’t see that much of a downside for him. The worst case is that the Seahawks pass on QB in the first round, and they draft a WR with the 20th pick. This really isn’t that bad of a scenario as Geno Smith is more than capable of supporting two Top 20 wide receivers. The addition of another wide receiver through the NFL Draft doesn’t scare me much as the wide receiver core for the Seahawks is rather thin at the moment.

Over the next couple of months, I am going to continue my Best Case, Worst Case series. I’m going to focus the rest of the articles on what the absolute best and worst case scenarios are for some players during the 2023 season.

Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

Two Examples of How To Get Under the Dynasty Owner Salary Cap

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

All Dynasty Owner teams need to get under the 2023 salary cap figure of $157.36 million by the end of this week – specifically by Sunday, April 16th. This is the first big deadline of the 2023 Dynasty Owner season. If you have a Dynasty Owner team that isn’t under the salary cap by that date, then you are leaving important roster decisions up to another entity as all Dynasty Owner teams will be under the salary cap, one way or another, by the next day. Even if you have players on your team who received a new contract with an increased salary recently, your Dynasty Owner team still needs to be under the salary cap by April 16th. Everyone who has Odell Beckham Jr. and his new $15 million contract on their roster needs to have a plan for reducing their team’s salaries if his $13.75 million salary increase pushed the team over the salary cap.

Right now, I’m over the salary cap in just one out of my six Dynasty Owner leagues and that team is only over by $3.21 million. I have several players who got new contracts, such as Jakobi Meyers ($11,000,000), Allen Lazard ($11,000,000) and Noah Fant ($6,850,000) who I could drop for free at any time along with a couple of players who I could release and pay between $3 million and $5 million in Dynasty Dollars to get under the salary cap. I’m waiting and seeing about trade offers before I make the final decision on what to do. This is a sound strategy that all Dynasty Owners should try to employ if they are over the salary cap.

Overall, there are 21 teams over the salary cap across my six leagues with at least three teams over the salary cap in every league. That’s nearly 30% of the teams in my leagues who are still over the salary cap with only days to go. I’m not sure if that’s normal or not, but it does seem like a lot of teams.

The over the salary cap teams run the gamut. One team is less than $500,000 over and all they need to do is drop any player since the minimum NFL and Dynasty Owner salary is now $750,000. Another team is $801,845 over the salary cap. On the other end of the spectrum, there are two teams in different leagues that have salaries over $50 million above the salary cap. One of those teams has Aaron Rodgers ($50,271,667) so if they just exercise the free drop on him in the next couple of days, they will be just a little over $7 million over the salary cap, which is much more manageable. The other team has both Kyler Murray ($46,100,000) and Dak Prescott ($40,000,000) on their roster so they could get under the salary cap by $31.57 million if they just drop those two QBs. Because Prescott didn’t have a recent contract change, the fee to drop him is $20 million Dynasty Dollars. The Dynasty Owner could use an Amnesty Provision, which only cost $5 million Dynasty Dollars, instead to save money.

Unless your Dynasty Owner team roster is sitting at the minimum of 25 players plus 2023 draft picks, Dynasty Owners can drop a player or two and make it under the salary cap pretty easily. If the player who is dropped had a contract change since the start of NFL free agency, that drop won’t even cost you any Dynasty Dollars.

Other Dynasty Owners are in more much precarious situations and need to cut big salary players or employ some creative thinking in order to get their team under the salary cap and stay at or above the roster minimum by the looming deadline. The team I mentioned earlier that can drop both Prescott and Murray would still have Geno Smith ($25,000,000) and Jordan Love ($3,095,863) at QB, which is fine. However, the team would be better if they traded one or both of them and got something of value (player or draft picks) in return.

To help my fellow Dynasty Owners who may still be over the salary cap, I will take a look at two over-the-salary cap Orphan teams available in the D.O. Store. Anybody can pick up one of these teams, or any Orphan team, for just $29 or $75 million Dynasty Dollars and execute the plan presented below. Or you can buy one of these teams and make your own decisions on how to get the team under the salary cap and into the playoffs next year.

All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Contract information for all players can be found on the Dynasty Owner platform. Just go to the player’s profile page and click Contract to see if there is any new contract news.

For the purposes of this article, salaries and roster percentages were current as of the afternoon of April 11th.

Example #1: Orphan Team Nearly $40 Million Over Cap

The first orphan team is nearly $40 million over the cap and has four players taking up just over $114 million in salary cap room. The rest of the players on the roster only cost $81 million in salary, so it would appear that this team needs to drop at least one of the high salary players to get under the salary cap. Here is the other available information about this team.

• 2023 Finish: Third – lost in the semi-finals, but won the third place game
• Current Roster Size: 30
• Current Salaries: $195.19 million
• Dynasty Dollars: $10.68 million
• Amnesty Provisions: 2
• 2023 Draft Picks: 2.10, 3.08 and 3.10
• No 2024 third round rookie draft picks
• All 2025 and 2026 draft picks are intact

The two Amnesty Provisions can be helpful in dropping the high salary players if they didn’t get a contract change this year. However, this team is lacking in draft capital and has only three late 2023 rookie draft picks overall. The good news about the roster size is that they can cut up to eight players. This may be necessary as the team has a large number of inexpensive players (eight players with salaries under $1 million plus seven with salaries between $1 million and $2 million). Of course, not all of those players should be on the chopping block.

The main issue are the four high-salary players who are taking up over 70% of the $157.36 million salary cap. Those players are as follows:

Player	Position	Team	Contract Change	Contract Years Left	Annual Salary
Daniel Jones	QB	NYG	Yes	4	$40,000,000
Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	Yes	4	$30,000,000
Davante Adams	WR	LV	No	4	$28,000,000
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	No	2	$16,015,875

In addition to being expensive, those four players are likely also responsible for the team’s playoff appearance last year as all of them were in the top 10 at their position (McCaffrey – RB2, Hill – WR2, Adams – WR4, and Jones – QB10).

The next Dynasty Owner has an easy solution to this team’s salary problem. They can drop Daniel Jones for free since he had a contract change and save $40 million. This would put the team under the cap by $2.17 million so they’d still have a trim more in salary for their draft picks, but that shouldn’t be too hard, and they wouldn’t have a problem with going below the roster minimum.

The problem for this team is that Jones is their only guaranteed Week 1 starting QB for next season as these are the only two QBs on their roster.

Player	Position	Team	Contract Change	Contract Years Left	Annual Salary
Davis Mills	QB	HOU	No	2	$1,304,383
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	No	3	$934,252

Last year, this QB situation was fine as Purdy put up an average of 22.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points from Week 13 to Week 17 and together with Daniel Jones, they were pretty solid pair of QBs. Now, Jones is on the chopping block, Purdy might not be ready for Week 1 due to the injury he suffered in the playoffs, or because the 49ers decide to start Trey Lance ($8,526,319) ahead of him. Mills is very likely out as the Texans’ starter as Houston seems likely to draft a QB with the #2 overall pick in the NFL Draft. Suddenly, just dropping Jones isn’t as easy as it seemed.

So, if the team drops Jones, it still needs to pick up a starting QB in the Free Agent Auction. Fortunately for whoever takes over this orphan team, Kirk Cousins ($35,000,000) is available. Therefore, the new way to get the team under the salary cap, keep their other three stud players and guarantee that they still have at least one NFL starting QB on their roster starts with this move.

• Move #1: Drop Daniel Jones and replace him with Kirk Cousins from the Free Agent Auction.
  • Salary reduction = $5,000,000
  • Dynasty Dollars cost = at least $1 million (to bid on Cousins)

The QB position is as set as it can be in the short term with the Cousins’ addition. This team has J.K. Dobbins ($1,432,359) as the RB2 and Khalil Herbert ($902,677), Jeff Wilson ($3,000,000) and Alexander Mattison ($3,500,000) as the primary Bench RBs. Both Wilson and Mattison have new contracts so they could also be dropped for free (if necessary). With Hill and Adams as the top two WRs, moving on from some higher priced Bench WRs is the way to go. Here are the players available to drop.

Player	Position	Team	Contract Change	Contract Years Left	Annual Salary
Curtis Samuel	WR	WAS	No	1	$11,500,000
Michael Gallup	WR	DAL	No	4	$11,500,000
Noah Brown	WR	HOU	Yes	1	$2,600,000
Mack Hollins	WR	ATL	Yes	1	$2,500,000
James Washington	WR	FA	Yes	0	$1,187,500
Demarcus Robinson	WR	FA	Yes	0	$1,035,000

The second move is to trim at least $14 million by dropping two of the six WRs listed above.

• Move #2: Drop either Curtis Samuel or Michael Gallup plus Noah Brown or Mack Hollins. Dropping Samuel would cost $2.875 million Dynasty Dollars (25% of his remaining $11.5 million salary), while Gallup has $46 million remaining on his contract. Using one of the team’s two available Amnesty Provisions is the way to get rid of Gallup.
  • Salary reduction = $14,000,000 or $14,100,000
  • Dynasty Dollars cost = either $2.875 million or an Amnesty Provision

This team has an interesting TE room of five players.

Player	Position	Team	Contract Change	Contract Years Left	Annual Salary
Evan Engram	TE	JAC	Yes	1	$11,345,000
Noah Fant	TE	SEA	Yes	1	$6,850,000
Jordan Akins	TE	CLE	Yes	2	$1,950,000
Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	No	2	$1,507,045
Foster Moreau	TE	FA	Yes	0	$752,098

Due to a cancer diagnosis, Moreau has retired (at least temporarily), so he can be dropped for free. Akins is nothing more than a backup TE to David Njoku ($13,687,500) in Cleveland and not worth the roster spot. On the other hand, this team has a solid starter in Pat Freiermuth and can afford to move either Evan Engram or Noah Fant via trade (preferred method) or free drop. A trade could yield additional draft picks since this team is still trying to work its way under the salary cap. However, as long as the trade doesn’t increase the team’s salary, it can be made. Here are the moves to restructure the TE situation for this orphan team.

• Move #3: Dropping both Foster Moreau and Jordan Akins.
  • Salary reduction = $2,702,098
  • Dynasty Dollars cost = $0
• Move #4: Trading or dropping either Evan Engram or Noah Fant. Despite his higher salary, Engram should draw more trade interest but if nothing materializes on the trade front, then dropping Fant is the preferred option since Engram was TE5 in Dynasty Owner last year, while Fant was TE17.
  • Salary reduction = $6,850,000
  • Dynasty Dollars cost = $0

For some reason, this orphan has five kickers and all of them are eligible to be dropped for free.

Player	Position	Team	Contract Change	Contract Years Left	Annual Salary
Jason Myers	K	SEA	Yes	4	$5,275,000
Ryan Succop	K	FA	Yes	0	$4,000,000
Joey Slye	K	FA	No	0	$2,433,000
Chase McLaughlin	K	FA	No	0	$965,000
Matthew Wright	K	FA	Yes	0	$895,000

McLaughlin signed with Tampa Bay for a reported $1.13 million, but it’s not been officially posted on Spotrac, so he’s still listed as a free agent in Dynasty Owner with his 2022 salary of $965,000. As a result, this team should keep him and expect a salary in the $1.13 million range. Succop was cut by Tampa Bay and Slye hasn’t signed yet with anyone, so we can drop both of them safely.

• Move #5: Dropping both free agent kickers still sitting on this roster.
  • Salary reduction = $6,433,000
  • Dynasty Dollars cost = $0

All of that roster trimming has reduced the roster by seven players and a total of nearly $35 million in salary. For a final move, this team needs to either drop Mack Hollins or Noah Brown (whoever survived the cut in Move #2) or move on from Jason Myers. At $5.275 million per year, Myers is the choice here as there is a viable replacement for him in this league’s Free Agent Auction in new 49ers kicker Zane Gonzalez ($2,250,000).

• Move #6: Dropping Jason Myers and adding Zane Gonzalez to replace him.
  • Salary reduction = $3,025,000
  • Dynasty Dollars cost = at least $1 million (to bid on Gonzalez)

The final roster for this orphan team is 23 players and the three draft picks for a team salary of $157.18 million. Sure, the team is only under the salary cap by around $180,000 and it might get even closer depending on McLaughlin’s new salary, but it’s under and that’s all that matters now. One final roster move, such as dropping Demarcus Robinson or James Washington once they get a new contract or dropping Green Bay RB Tyler Goodson ($856,000) who is still on this team’s roster, can be made to find room for the rookie contract salaries of those draft picks and if McLaughlin’s contract exceeds $1.145 million.

Example #2: Orphan Team Over $80 Million Over Cap

The second orphan team needs to cut $82.6 million of salary and got into this situation because a baker’s dozen (13) players were either free agents and got new contracts, had a fifth year option picked up, or received a franchise tag. Here is the other available information about this team.

• 2023 Finish: Fourth place – lost playoff semi-finals and third place game
• Current Roster Size: 31
• Current Salaries: $239.96 million
• Dynasty Dollars: $14.83 million
• Amnesty Provisions: 2
• 2023 Draft Picks: 1.09 and 3.09
• No 2024 second round rookie draft picks
• All 2025 and 2026 draft picks are intact

The starting point for this team is looking at all of the new contracts that can be dropped for free and seeing if there are some easy choices there.

Player	Position	Team	Contract Change	Contract Years Left	Annual Salary
Daniel Jones	QB	NYG	Yes	4	$40,000,000
Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	Yes	4	$30,000,000
Geno Smith	QB	SEA	Yes	3	$25,000,000
Marquise Brown	WR	ARI	Yes	1	$13,413,000
Evan Engram	TE	JAC	Yes	1	$11,345,000
Jakobi Meyers	WR	LV	Yes	3	$11,000,000
Saquon Barkley	RB	NYG	Yes	1	$10,091,000
Hayden Hurst	TE	CAR	Yes	3	$7,250,000
Miles Sanders	RB	CAR	Yes	4	$6,350,000
Jamaal Williams	RB	NO	Yes	3	$4,000,000
Philip Walker	QB	CHI	Yes	2	$2,075,000
Eddy Pineiro	K	CAR	Yes	2	$2,050,000
Donald Parham	TE	LAC	Yes	2	$1,267,500

It doesn’t appear that there is a simple way to cut $82.6 million in salaries without getting rid of Daniel Jones, Tyreek Hill and Geno Smith ($95 million). It’s going to take quite a bit of work to keep one or two of those players.

In addition to the dozen new contracts, this orphan team also has six players who are currently free agents and since they have had a contract change, each could be dropped for free as well. Those players are as follows:

Player	Position	Team	Contract Change	Contract Years Left	Annual Salary
Leonard Fournette	RB	FA	Yes	0	$7,000,000
Jarvis Landry	WR	FA	Yes	0	$3,000,000
Mark Ingram	RB	FA	Yes	0	$2,500,000
Randy Bullock	K	FA	Yes	0	$2,340,000
Damien Williams	RB	FA	Yes	0	$1,620,000
James Washington	WR	FA	Yes	0	$1,187,500

This gives us a nice pool of 19 players to drop without paying a single Dynasty Dollar in drop fees. Having Jones get a salary increase of almost $33.6 million and Geno Smith’s salary going up by $21.5 million means QB is the place to start cutting salary for this team.

• Move #1: The first move for me would be to get rid of Daniel Jones as this team also has Justin Herbert ($6,644,688). Herbert and Geno Smith are a solid pair of Dynasty Owner QBs with a combined salary lower than Jones’ salary.
  • Salary reduction = $40,000,000
  • Dynasty Dollars cost = $0
• Move #2: Philip Walker is not needed as he is going to be the backup to Justin Fields ($4,717,989) in Chicago and didn’t play well enough when given a chance with Carolina the past few seasons.
  • Salary reduction = $2,075,000
  • Dynasty Dollars cost = $0
• Move #3: An easy savings of a little over $4.1 million can be had by cutting a pair of injured free agent RBs who are over 30 years old. It’s time to say bye-bye to both Damien Williams and Mark Ingram.
  • Salary reduction = $4,120,000
  • Dynasty Dollars cost = $0
• Move #4: This move is similar to move #3 above as both Jarvis Landry and James Washington were of little use to Dynasty Owners in 2022. Out of the two, Washington has less value and should be cut first, but his salary is lower, and it appears likely both will need to be cut to get under the salary cap.
  • Salary reduction = $4,187,500
  • Dynasty Dollars cost = $0
• Move #5: Dropping a free agent kicker with a $2.34 million seems pretty obvious, so Randy Bullock gets dropped as well.
  • Salary reduction = $2,340,000
  • Dynasty Dollars cost = $0

Things are looking pretty good with seven players and $52,722,500 in salary dropped already. However, this team has only 24 players plus two 2023 rookie draft picks and $29.88 million in salary to drop. Moving Tyreek Hill and his $30 million per year contract would do the job, but just letting go of the WR2 last year for nothing seems like a bad idea. Maybe there’s a trade partner out there but time is running short to rely on another team to save this orphan from the automatic chopping block.

It’s time to get creative! This orphan has three quality TEs in Hayden Hurst, Evan Engram and Dallas Goedert ($14,250,000). While dropping Goedert would reap the biggest salary savings, it would cost an Amnesty Provision. Both Hurst and Engram can be let go for free. Engram’s salary is $4.095 million more, but he’s rostered in 98.72% of Dynasty Owner leagues versus 75.54% for Hurst. Dropping Hurst seems to be the better option.

• Move #6: Dropping Hayden Hurst for free and keeping Engram and Goedert as a pair of highly paid TEs who both finished in the top 12 among TEs last year.
  • Salary reduction = $7,250,000
  • Dynasty Dollars cost = $0

Both Jakobi Meyers and Marquise Brown should have some trade value, even if it’s just a third round pick sometime in the future. This orphan team has a solid base of WRs already with Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans ($16,500,000), DeVonta Smith ($5,035,348) and Chris Olave ($4,817,969) to fill the two Starting WR positions, the FLEX and one Bench WR spot. The 1.09 rookie draft pick is a perfect spot to snag a replacement for Meyers and Brown for the second Bench spot at a much lower salary.

• Move #7: Getting rid of both Jakobi Meyers and Marquise Brown as they are both luxuries for the new Dynasty Owner of this orphan team.
  • Salary reduction = $24,413,000
  • Dynasty Dollars cost = $0

After all of this, a total of ten players and $84,385,500 have been trimmed from this roster. The roster is now 21 players, two draft picks (assuming that no 2023 draft picks were acquired by trading Meyers and/or Brown) and a salary cap figure just under of $155.6 million. This team still needs two more players to fill roster spots and now has about $1.76 million in salary cap space. Getting a 2023 draft pick for either Meyers or Brown (or hopefully one for each) would take care of the roster minimum issue.

However, if those trades don’t materialize, there are obviously many players earning the NFL league minimum of $750,000 or widely available players with low salaries who could be added. The following players are available in this league’s Free Agent Auction, and each has a salary under $1 million meaning that they can be added to this roster along with a minimum salary player.

• DeeJay Dallas (RB – SEA) – 1 year/ $947,350
• Brevin Jordan (TE – HOU) – 2 years/$958,046
• Quez Watkins (WR – PHI) – 1 year/$866,166

Watkins may be the best choice as a handcuff for DeVonta Smith if Smith happens to miss any time for the Eagles.

A final move is also possible by dropping Donald Parham and replacing him with either one of the following players.

• Matt Breida (RB – NYG) – 1 year/$1,400,000
• Isaiah McKenzie (WR – IND) – 1 year/$1,232,500

Breida is merely a handcuff for Saquon Barkley, but since Barkley has been injured quite a bit in the past and is one of the key players on this roster, it might be a good move to have his potential replacement filling a roster spot. The combination of adding Watkins, Breida and a minimum salary player would leave this team barely $10,000 under the salary cap. They would still need to trim more salary for rookies, but that problem can be handled another day and by the Dynasty Owner who actually purchases this orphan team.

Conclusion

Hopefully seeing how I reduced the salary cap of these orphan teams will help some of you to think creatively getting your Dynasty Owner team under the salary cap. Fortunately for those of you with teams over the salary cap, you have full access to the available free agents in your league’s Free Agent Auction. You can also look at other rosters to find trade partners, which I wasn’t able to do. With only a couple of days to go before all Dynasty Owner teams need to be under the $157.36 million salary cap, there is still time to get a trade done that can help you avoid dropping a player who might be valuable to someone else.

An assist and thank you goes out to Head Commissioner Nick Larmore who sent me screenshots of the top available players in the Free Agent Auction in the leagues of these orphan team, so I was able to find a couple of cheaper available players to make this exercise more realistic. While it would have been easier to just drop Jones for the first orphan team, dropping him while picking up Cousins and then finding other roster moves was the better strategy so the team could keep its top players. For the second orphan team, a new Dynasty Owner could use the Free Agent Auction to help them cut more players and maybe keep a few of the players who got big contracts in NFL free agency that I had to drop.

Thanks for reading and being a Dynasty Owner. Even though we are closing in on four weeks since the 2023 Dynasty Owner league year started, we are still on our off-season content schedule. In addition to this article, Matt Morrison – The Jerk has an article that will be available this week, while Nate Christian and Jay Pounds had articles published last week and are on tap with articles next week too.

Jay and I will have a new Dynasty Owner podcast this week and there should be a Livestream on Friday at lunchtime. Last week’s Livestream was on Thursday afternoon and if you missed it because of the date change or the Passover or Easter holiday, you can go watch it on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel. Finally, don’t forget to follow Dynasty Owner on Twitter. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello all and welcome to another bi-weekly off-season article. A couple of weeks ago, the first part of my “First Round Trades” article series was published. Today, I will conclude that series as I discuss fair value for Dynasty Owner rookie draft picks 1.07 through 1.12. If you haven’t read my previous article, I would urge you to do so before reading this one. Here is the summary I gave for the series two weeks ago…

“It’s no secret that this time of year is one of dynasty fantasy football lovers’ favorites. As I mentioned in my article from two weeks ago, there are many NFL happenings in March and April. These events reach their climax at the NFL Draft. The draft provides hope to NFL teams as well as us as Dynasty Owners. Hope that the next season can be better than the previous. This is where draft picks come into play. Every year, there are 13 rookie draft picks that are assigned for the first round of every established Dynasty Owner league. All of these picks can be traded except for the 1.13 per the Dynasty Owner Constitution.

All of these first 12 picks can provide a great deal of hope to their Dynasty Owners, but in some cases they may present great opportunities as well. A team that is in “Win Now” mode may see the 1.06 as a pawn in his or her plan to acquire a veteran player. That is what this article series is going to be about. I will put together 12 trade examples that I deem to be fair value on both sides. I’ll discuss one trade for every pick in the first round excluding the 1.13. Some of these trades are actually real trades that have been made recently. Real trades will be highlighted in bold font and underlined.”

Published March 29, 2023

I’ll lay out the final six draft spots (1.07 to 1.12) in this article.

First Round Trades

1.07

1.07 = 1.10 & 2.06

1.07 = 1.09, 3.08 & 2024 3rd round rookie draft pick (TBD)

1.07 = Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372)

I made the last trade listed here. I traded away Trevor Lawrence to get the 1.07 draft pick. I admit this probably isn’t the greatest value I could have gotten for Trevor, but I had a plan. In this league, I already had Geno Smith ($25,000,000) and Tua Tagovailoa ($7,568,859). I was also severely depleted at the wide receiver position. After having no luck trading Geno, I decided to move Lawrence for the 1.07 pick. My hope is that as the draft draws closer, I can flip the pick for a cheaper, veteran receiver. I still own the 1.07 pick and hope to cash it in shortly.

1.08

1.08 = 1.12 & 2.03

1.08 = Treylon Burks ($3,592,398)

The 1.08 for a couple of picks at the 2nd round turn is just fine with me. If you want to move up to “get your guy” then I am good with it.

Additionally, I saw a real life Dynasty Owner trade where someone traded the 1.08 for Treylon Burks. Fine value here as well. While I wouldn’t consider Burks a proven NFL wide receiver, he is more proven than the options you will have at receiver with the 1.08 rookie draft pick. With the 1.08 pick, you are starting to get into Zay Flowers and Josh Downs territory. Both are fine prospects who I would like to have on my Dynasty Owner team, but I see Burks making a real career advancement this year as he becomes the true #1 receiver for Tennessee.

1.09

1.09 = 3.06 & your 2024 1st round rookie draft pick (TBD)

1.09 = Diontae Johnson ($18,355,000)

If you are a gambler and you want to bet on yourself this season, then you could propose your 2024 1st round pick for the 1.09 pick this year. Ideally, I would like this year’s pick to be closer to 1.06, but you could do it between 1.06 and 1.09. This only works if you are confident that you will not only make the playoffs, but also make a deep run. If you have a team that is good enough to win it all, you will gain a few draft spots.

Johnson had a down year and a massive contract increase. I expect a moderate rebound in 2023, so the 1.09 pick for him makes sense if you are desperate for a proven, starting WR.

1.10

1.10 = 2.04 & 2.07

1.10 = Tyler Lockett ($17,250,000)

Lockett for a 1.10 rookie draft pick is purely an age move. Yes, Lockett will almost certainly outproduce any wide receiver who you will draft in 2023, but he is past 30 years of age. As we know, 30 is around the age when wide receivers start to see a drop off in production. This isn’t true of every player, but on average it is a trend. I like either side of this trade depending on if you are trying to rebuild or win now.

1.11

1.11 = 2.08 & Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($10,000,000)

1.11 = Khalil Herbert ($902,677)

1.12

1.12 = 2.05 & 2.06

This is your last chance to jump into the 1st round. Sometimes the stigma of drafting a player in the 1st round will overpower logic. Some people are desperate to gobble up every 1st round draft pick they can, and this would include the 1.12 pick. You can use this to your advantage and gain two picks in the middle of the 2nd round. Obviously the players you draft won’t have as great of a pedigree, but at the 1.12 pick, it’s starting to become a little less certain as to which players are “bust proof”.

Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

Josh Downs

Position: WR

College: North Carolina

Height: 5’ 9”

Weight: 171lbs

Age: 21

247 Rating: 0.9563 4-Star

By: Nate Christian (@NateNFL)

The Rundown:

It’s funny, when you pull up the profile for Josh Downs the first thing you notice is that he’s small. But as soon as you put on the tape, his size is the least of your worries. Downs plays like a much bigger player, catching 13 of 18 contested catch targets (best for 8th in the NCAA last year). His ability to create separation but also win the 50/50 balls makes him a target hog with the upside to pull in a high number of receptions.

College Production:

With Sam Howell ($1,005,400) throwing the passes and the duo of Dyami Brown ($1,236,000) and Dazz Newsome ($870,000) moving on to the NFL, Downs stepped into the WR1 role and took off in 2021. As a sophomore that year he caught 101 passes for 1,335 yards and eight touchdowns. His junior year catching passes from future first round pick Drake Maye, he amassed 94 receptions for 1,029 yards and 11 touchdowns. One of the best receivers in college football over the past few years, Downs takes a ton of talent and production with him into the NFL.

Strengths:

• YAC AbilityGreat burst to eat up space quickly after the catch. His acceleration (4.48 40-yard dash) shows on the field as he can turn up field quickly. He will sometimes go backwards to go forwards, which could hurt in the NFL, but he has the athletic talent to pull it off.

• SeparationDowns creates separation in multiple ways. He can create separation with his burst off the line, getting a step on the defender quickly and making him turn his hips before he is ready. He’s also a great route runner who has a nose for finding space whenever his quarterback needs him.

• Contested Catch SituationsDowns doesn’t play like a 5’ 9” receiver. He’s able to threaten the defense down-the-field at times, and win in contested catch situations. He’s got great body control and flashes his hands late. With his timing and physicality, he was able to win 75% of his contested targets last year.

Weaknesses:

• SizeThat’s about it. His lack of size certainly limits him to the slot, but that could be all it does. It may end up too large of a hurdle to overcome as we’ve seen talented players struggle before because they just weren’t big enough to play at the next level. I think Downs has the talent to overcome and that the modern NFL is more open to his profile. Meaning for me, this isn’t too much of an issue.

Projected Round/Contract:

Josh Downs is sitting on the border of being a first rounder or a very early second round pick. This is a common area for the top receivers in a class to sit, only the best of the best are selected in the first 15 picks, and Downs’ limitations around size keep him from that elite tier. If he is a late first round pick, Downs would be looking at a salary of around $3.1 million to $3.5 million a year. If an early Day 2 pick, that drops at least $600,000 per year to around $2.3 million to $2.48 million a year. Either way, the projected fantasy production that Downs could take on out of the slow, he would look to be a high value FLEX play rather quickly.

Team Fits:

Ultimately, Downs’ size may drop him to the second round. With some slot-receiver-needy teams sitting at the top of the second round, it may not take long on that Friday night for Downs to hear his name called. First up is the Indianapolis Colts at pick 35 overall. With the Paris Campbell ($4,700,000) project finally leaving town an opening has appeared at the slot receiver position for the Colts. They signed Isaiah McKenzie ($1,232,500), but on a cheap, one year deal so they may be looking to find a similar style player in the NFL Draft, and the value of Downs at the 35th pick would be tempting. The room would be a little crowded for fantasy purposes, but the Colts would surely love to pair a dynamic player like Downs with the two big receivers they have on the outside in Michael Pittman ($2,153,213) and Alec Pierce ($1,650,336).

Another team that pops into mind at the top of the second round is the Seattle Seahawks. Tyler Lockett ($17,250,000) is getting older every year and the Seahawks have a potential out after this 2023 season. While Downs is not a Lockett clone, he would be able to compliment DK Metcalf ($24,000,000) well with the work he could do out of the slot. Quarterback Geno Smith ($25,000,000) would be a great distributor to pair with a slot receiver like Downs.

Who Rebuilders Should Draft at Each Spot – Round 1

By: Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl)

Dynasty Owners, we are now officially halfway through the free agency period and while it is not time to rush just yet, it is time to make sure you have a plan in place for your roster. I usually spend this time talking about fun things related to dynasty fantasy football, but outside of Ezekiel Elliott ($15,000,000) going to the Eagles, we don’t have a ton to talk about. Come mid-April when free agency ends, we will shift into draft mode here on the platform and with that being said, I am going to do a three-part article (one article per round) highlighting what rebuilding Dynasty Owners should do with every pick in their Dynasty Owner rookie drafts.

Remember this is a mock draft geared towards rebuilding Dynasty Owners who are somewhat early in the process.

1. Bijan Robinson (RB – Texas)

Look I fully understand taking a quarterback here, but I believe you should trade back a spot or two if that is your plan as many fantasy football players will be chomping at the bit to get Bijan Robinson on their roster. If I were rebuilding and picking in this spot, I would take Robinson as running backs this talented rarely fail and he will bring back tremendous value in a trade. Robinson has been a stud since stepping onto the field in his college debut and I see it ending up the same at the next level. In 2022, Robinson finished with a stat line of 258 carries, 1,580 yards rushing, 314 yards receiving and 20 total touchdowns. Rebuilding or not, you’ve got to draft Bijan at 1!

2. C.J. Stroud (QB – Ohio State)

Were you expecting anyone else in this spot? I know my Ohio State bias always shows through, but I firmly believe I would feel the same way had Stroud played elsewhere in college (except Michigan) because he has all of the tools to become a superstar in the NFL. Stroud may be the best pocket passer in the NFL Draft, is by far the most accurate, and has very underrated athleticism. He will utilize that athleticism much more than he did in college during the first few years of his NFL career while he figures things out. Stroud put up video game numbers in almost every game he played in throughout his time at Ohio State finishing with a total of 8,123 passing yards while tossing 85 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions during his two full seasons in Columbus. If you couldn’t tell already, I have Stroud as my clear-cut number 1 QB in the 2023 NFL Draft and I don’t see that changing.

3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – Ohio State)

Surprise, surprise, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is my top receiver in the 2023 NFL Draft class as of right now. I know Smith-Njigba had a disappointing 2022 season at Ohio State, missing most of the year due to injury, but he has the talent to become an absolute stud at the next level. Smith-Njigba does have a lot of competition and it will be tough for him to stay ahead of the two guys behind him in my draft rankings, but Ohio State receivers tend to excel in the NFL, and I feel Smith-Njigba will be no different. If you want to see how dominant Smith-Njigba can be on a football field watch the Rose Bowl game against Utah!

4. Bryce Young (QB – Alabama)

In all fairness I would not fault you a bit for taking Bryce Young at 3 and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the 4 spot but I love my Buckeyes so this is how it must be! Young has done nothing but ball out at the college level and has the skillset to thrive at the next level. Similar to Tua Tagovailoa ($7,568,859), I have concerns about Young’s durability and size. We have seen smaller quarterbacks thrive in the NFL recently and I am not betting against Young, I just can’t put him ahead of some of the other players in this class. Young finished his career at Alabama throwing for 8,356 yards, 80 touchdowns and 12 interceptions en route to a Heisman trophy and an appearance in the National Championship game against Georgia.

5. Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – Alabama)

I believe this is the spot that really shows the difference in strategy for a rebuilder early in the process versus a contending team. A contending team would likely take Gibbs with the second pick and not think twice about it, but a rebuilder must consider position longevity, especially in this format. In four years when my rebuilding roster is at its peak, I would much rather be paying a wide receiver heading into his prime over a running back who is about to start fading when drafting as high as number 2. At pick number 5 though, Gibbs is far too talented to pass up should he still be there and I would likely use him as trade bait depending on the outlook of your roster come Week 5 or 6. In 2022, Gibbs finished the season with 926 yards rushing, 444 yards receiving, while scoring 10 total touchdowns.

6. Quentin Johnston (WR – TCU)

Quentin Johnson is another player who could realistically be drafted four players before this spot, but he could also drop another three spots. Johnson has all the talent in the world and is a player I expect to do well at the next level, but he does come with concerns. Johnson is a massive receiver who has a ton of speed and playmaking ability, but he does have some drops and the lack of touchdowns in 2022 are a big concern for me (only 6 in 14 games). The other big negative I have heard a lot when researching Johnston is the lack of high-end receivers who have come out of the Big 12. Outside of Tyler Lockett ($17,250,000) and CeeDee Lamb ($3,502,503), Big 12 wide receivers aren’t making much of an impact in the NFL. Johnston is one of, if not the best receiver in terms of pure talent in this class, but landing spot will play a big factor in his final draft ranking.

7. Anthony Richardson (QB – Florida)

Anthony Richardson is a raw prospect but, in my opinion, he has the highest ceiling in the entire 2023 draft class. If you were to build a Frankenstein quarterback and you had Josh Allen’s arm strength, Lamar Jackson’s speed, and Cam Newton’s size and strength, you would get Anthony Richardson. I know we all heard similar things about Malik Willis ($1,290,025) last season, but I assure you Richardson is much further along in terms of development than Willis was at this stage. If Richardson reaches his ceiling, he will be the biggest steal in the entire draft!

8. Jordan Addison (WR – USC)

I am honestly shocked to find a player as talented as Jordan Addison all the way down in the 8 spot. I think it speaks volumes about the high-end talent this draft class has to offer. Addison may be the safest position player in the draft, but I do not see him ending up as a high-end wide receiver 1 throughout his career. However, he is the type of player who should finish in the top 20 most seasons. Addison thrived at both stops during his college career which should only help his transition to the next level. In my opinion the biggest positive for Addison is the fact he should be a plug and play type of player who should be starting in the NFL on Day 1.

9. Will Levis (QB – Kentucky)

Depending on who you talk to Will Levis could be as high as the number 1 quarterback in the class or fall all the way down to fourth where I currently have him. It wouldn’t surprise me if I were wrong as finding quality quarterbacks in the NFL Draft is an absolute crapshoot. Levis has the size and physical tools to be a stud quickly in the NFL and I believe the experience of playing in the SEC for two seasons will only help his transition. Levis’ stats were nothing to brag about in 2022 but neither were Josh Allen’s ($43,005,667) coming out of college and that is who I see Levis compared to the most. At number 9, I believe he will be by far the best value of all players remaining should he perform well, which makes him an easy selection here.

10. Michael Mayer (TE – Notre Dame)

In the 10 spot, we have the clear-cut number 1 tight end of the draft, Notre Dame product Michael Mayer. Mayer is by far the most talented and accomplished tight end in the NFL draft and could easily rise up a few spots in Dynasty Owner rookie drafts depending on his landing spot. Mayer will have zero issues getting on the field early in his career as he is an excellent blocker who has the strength to hold his own against interior defensive lineman a few times a game. Mayer should be an instant matchup nightmare and could finish as a top 5 tight end in 2023 if paired with the right quarterback. If Mayer reaches his full potential, we will have another high-end tight end that the dynasty fantasy football world desperately needs.

11. Tank Bigsby (RB – Auburn)

Finally, we have another running back! I know I say it all of the time but running backs early in the rebuilding process tend to be bad investments and even when they produce, they are close to being on the decline by the time you are ready to win. I believe Bigsby is the best pure runner in this draft class, outside of Robinson and Gibbs (the two RBs ahead of him), and can develop into a top 12 running back should he improve his pass catching skills. Bigsby should thrive in goal line situations early in his career and has the ability to earn 10-15 carries a game by the end of 2023. If Bigsby ends up behind a clear-cut starter, he will likely fall out of the first round of my mock draft.

12. Zach Evans (RB – Ole Miss)

I will admit that I have not looked a ton into Zach Evans just yet and he may be a player who rises up my board rather quickly without the help of a landing spot. Evans was a beast in college averaging a whopping 6.9 yards per carry for his entire career for two different teams (TCU and Ole Miss). The fact Evans was able to maintain his elite production despite moving to a much tougher conference is a great sign for his transition to the NFL. The main negatives for Evans that I have found thus far are durability concerns and a lack of work in the passing game. Should Evans reach his full potential and stay healthy, he could end up as a top 12 running back in a year or two.

13. Kayshon Boutte (WR – LSU)

It’s time for the world-famous Dynasty Owner rookie bonus pick! In the 13th spot, I have a player who many had listed as their top receiver heading into 2022, Kayshon Boutte. Despite struggling in 2022, Boutte has the potential to be the top receiver in the NFL draft but he also comes with a ton of question marks. During Boutte’s freshman season at LSU, he established himself as a high-end prospect and played very well in 2021 before suffering a season ending injury. Boutte had high expectations placed on him heading into 2022, but he failed to live up to those expectations while playing for new head coach Brian Kelly. If Boutte’s 2022 was a fluke, he will be a huge steal at the end of the first round of Dynasty Owner rookie drafts.

Thank you all for reading and be sure to check out all of the upcoming Dynasty Owner content. We have the Dynasty Owner podcast, the Dynasty Owner Livestream, and articles to help with your Dynasty Owner teams. Good luck on your 2023 Chase for the Ring!

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

It’s no secret that this time of year is one of dynasty fantasy football lovers’ favorites. As I mentioned in my article from two weeks ago, there are many NFL happenings in March and April.  These events reach their climax at the NFL Draft. The draft provides hope to NFL teams as well as us as Dynasty Owners. Hope that the next season can be better than the previous. This is where draft picks come into play. Every year, there are 13 rookie draft picks that are assigned for the first round of every established Dynasty Owner league. All of these picks can be traded except for the 1.13 per the Dynasty Owner Constitution.

“Round 1 will have a 13th bonus pick – determined by the Loser’s tournament and awarded to the loser’s tournament winner. The 13th pick is not tradeable and has to be used by the team who wins it in the following season’s rookie draft. There is no rollover to future seasons.”

All of these first 12 picks can provide a great deal of hope to their Dynasty Owners, but in some cases they may present great opportunities as well. A team that is in “Win Now” mode may see the 1.06 as a pawn in his or her plan to acquire a veteran player. That is what this article series is going to be about. I will put together 12 trade examples that I deem to be fair value on both sides. I’ll discuss one trade for every pick in the first round excluding the 1.13. Some of these trades are actually real trades that have been made recently. Real trades will be highlighted in bold font and underlined. I’ll lay out the top 6 picks in this article, and then my next article will take care of the other 6.

First Round Trades

1.01

Trading for the number one overall pick in any season is not going to be an easy task. That is especially true for the 2023 season. Bijan Robinson is far and away the consensus 1.01 pick for dynasty leagues. This is even true for Super Flex and Dynasty Owner. Robinson will likely be taken first in this year’s rookie drafts in over 80 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues. In order to obtain the 1.01 pick, you are going to have to pay up for it. If you want the 1.01 pick, this is what I think it would take to make it happen.

1.01 = 1.02 & 1.06

1.01 = 1.03 & 2024 1st round rookie pick (TBD)

1.01 = Jonathan Taylor ($1,957,287) & 1.05

1.01 = O.J. Howard ($1,232,500), Breece Hall ($2,253,694), 1.07 & 3.11

Like I said earlier, it is going to take a lot to get Bijan. For some Dynasty Owners, this may not be enough either, but it’s what I consider fair.

1.02

Pick 1.02 is a totally different animal because you know that you are very likely to take a quarterback with this pick. Which QB you may ask? That will have to be decided after the NFL Draft. My money is on either C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young. This is what it may take to get them.

1.02 = 1.05 & 1.07

1.02 = Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372) & 1.07

1.02 & 2.02 = 1.05, 1.06 & Cole Kmet ($1,894,445)

1.02 & Aaron Rodgers ($50,271,667) = Chris Godwin ($20,000,000), George Pickens ($1,688,045) & three 2025 2nd rookie round picks (TBD)

Lawrence and a 2023 mid-1st round rookie pick seems fair to me. The opportunity to get a younger QB on a rookie contract for two years longer is worth the 1.07.

1.03

1.03 is likely going to be whoever is left between Stroud and Young. That isn’t going to be true in every circumstance, but will likely be the case in most Dynasty Owner leagues.

1.03 = 1.07 & 1.09

1.03 = Ja’Marr Chase ($7,704,910)

1.03 = Justin Jefferson ($3,280,701)

I’m not sure I would trade Jefferson or Chase straight up for the 1.03, but I see the case for it. Chase is on the higher end for rookie wide receiver salaries, and he has two years left on that salary. Jefferson’s salary is less than half of Chase’s salary, but Jefferson only has a single year left on his rookie deal. I could make a case for identical value for both players at this point in their career. That being said, I think a 1.03 is a fair trade. I wouldn’t expect many people are willing to let either elite receiver go for just that pick, but if you are desperate, those trades could work.

1.04

The 1.04 could go in the direction of any of the three major positions. Anthony Richardson (QB), Jahmyr Gibbs (RB), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR), or Jordan Addison (WR) are all in contention for this fourth pick.

1.04 = 1.11 & 1.12

1.04 = Garrett Wilson ($5,138,502)

1.04 = 1.07 & D’Andre Swift ($2,134,728)

The 11th and 12th rookie draft picks were traded for the 1.04 in a real Dynasty Owner league less than two weeks ago. I think this is great value for the pick considering you are moving up for either the top WR or third best QB in the class. The 1.11 and 1.12 picks would get you roughly the fourth best WR and/or RB in the class.

1.05

1.05 = 1.07 & 2.12

1.05 = Stefon Diggs ($24,000,000)

Trading the 1.07 and a very late 2nd in order to move up two spots is fine value. If you have your guy picked out and you want him, by all means move up and sacrifice that 2.12. Odds are that if you want him, he won’t make it two more picks to your 1.07.

I recently traded my 1.05 for Stefon Diggs. This is not great value from a monetary standpoint. In fact, it’s pretty poor, but I am looking to win this year. I have a solid team with enough salary cap room to take on this trade. I was looking for one or two wide receivers to put me over the edge. I found it in Diggs.

1.06

1.06 = 1.12 & 2.03

1.06 = 2024 1st round rookie pick (TBD) & 10 Dynasty Dollars

1.06 = Drake London ($5,383,617)

The first trade is just mixing and matching picks like most of my other first trades have been. 

This second trade is one of my favorites though. This trade only works if you have complete faith that the person you are trading with will not only be in the bottom half of the league standings in 2023, but that they will finish in the bottom three. But if you can trade a mid-1st round rookie draft pick this year for a top 1, 2 or 3 pick next year…well that is great value.

Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

– aka the Leftovers

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Almost all of the recent news has been about the free agents who have signed with NFL teams so far this off-season. Outside of QBs, there haven’t been a lot of big contracts handed out to free agents and some players have had to settle for one-year contracts. Not every NFL free agent has signed yet and these “leftovers” are the focus of this article.

I’m trying to focus on the most desirable “leftovers” remaining, so not every free agent player will be listed here. First, I’ll have the list of the top currently available NFL free agents. After that, I’ll scope out which teams could use one of these remaining veteran free agents. If a team has a need at a position, but is more likely to fill that need via the upcoming NFL Draft, such as Carolina, Houston and Indianapolis are likely to do at the QB position, then they will be left out. You may have a different opinion and if so, feel free to tag me on Twitter and tell me what I got right or, more importantly, got wrong.

This is likely one of the few opportunities to look at the available NFL free agents as many of them will likely sign in the next few days. They may even sign after this article is finished, but before it gets published, or maybe by the time some of you read this, certain players will no longer be unsigned. Kickers are not included, just QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs, with one exception because a top rated kicker from last season was recently re-signed. Since we don’t have his contract details yet, he’s still listed as a Free Agent on the Dynasty Owner platform. The most recent contract updates were processed on Monday night (March 27th), so anyone listed in this article was still a free agent at that point.

While it may seem unimportant, every season there is at least one free agent who signs late and ends up being a productive NFL and Dynasty Owner player. Free agency opened last year on March 16th, but Geno Smith ($25,000,000) didn’t sign with Seattle until almost a full month later (April 14th). All he did was finish as QB6 and average nearly 23.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Super Bowl Champion Jerick McKinnon ($1,272,500) was available until mid-June last year and he finished as the RB21 for the 2022 Dynasty Owner season. Finally, Kenyan Drake ($1,035,000) was cut by the Raiders during training camp and wasn’t signed by Baltimore until August 31st, but he finished as RB46 for the season with two games of more than 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the middle of the season (Week 6 and Week 9).

All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Contract information for all players can be found on the Dynasty Owner platform. Just go to the player’s profile page and click Contract to see if there is any new contract news.

For the purposes of this article, salaries and roster percentages were current as of the morning of March 28th.

Players Who Have Signed but No Contract Information Yet

Right now, we have a small list of players who have reportedly signed a contract for the 2023 season, but no information has been posted about the contract yet (other than the player’s new team and contract length in some cases). Prior to the weekend, there were 17 of these players, but many of them had their contract information posted on Spotrac over the weekend and updated Monday night on the Dynasty Owner platform.

Here are the remaining players who have signed, but have not been updated on the Dynasty Owner platform due to lack of contract information (ranked by roster percentage).

Player	Position	Team	Roster %	Current Salary	2022 Rank	2022 DOFP
Eddy Pineiro	K	CAR	88.94%	$895,000	K8	119.0
D’Ernest Johnson	RB	JAC	76.60%	$1,216,500	RB135	6.1
Tony Jones	RB	DEN	17.87%	$825,000	RB121	10.4
Nate Sudfeld	QB	DET	2.55%	$1,035,000	QB200	-0.4
Tommy Sweeney	TE	NYG	1.70%	$750,000	TE112	1.7
Keelan Cole	WR	LV	0.85%	$1,278,500	WR136	29.6
Blake Bell	TE	KC	0.85%	$1,272,500	TE93	8.7
Brandon Powell	WR	MIN	0.43%	$1,035,000	WR103	62.5

This list is not very exciting to be honest. Eddy Pineiro is easily the most desirable player here as Carolina traded Zane Gonzalez ($2,250,000) to the San Francisco 49ers after re-signing Pineiro. Pineiro was the 8th ranked kicker in Dynasty Owner last season and only missed four kicks all season (2 FGs and 2 PATs). His contract is likely to be much higher than $895,000, but unless it’s $4 million to $5 million for multiple seasons, he should be worth keeping around on your Dynasty Owner roster.

Don’t let the 2022 ranking and Dynasty Owner fantasy points distract you from the fact that D’Ernest Johnson had 110.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and three games with over 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021 for the Browns. He could be a reliable backup to Travis Etienne ($3,224,526) for the Jaguars.

The rest are likely depth for their new team and likely will end up getting a minimum salary contract based on their years of service. According to this handy chart on Spotrac, those minimum salaries are as follows:

• $750,000 for players with less than 1 year of service
• $870,000 for players with 1 year of service
• $940,000 for players with 2 years of service
• $1.01 million for players with 3 years of service
• $1.08 million for players with 4 to 6 years of service
• $1.165 million for players with 7 or more years of service

Free Agent Quarterbacks

If you thought the players who have signed list was devoid of quality free agents, then I suggest you avoid looking at the list of NFL free agent quarterbacks below. While probably all of them will end up on a NFL roster in 2023, most will have no value to Dynasty Owners unless they sign for cheap and your roster has space, salary cap room and you want the backup QB for a starter already on your roster.

Player	Age	2022 Team	Roster %	2022 Salary	2022 Rank	2022 DOFP
Matt Ryan	37	IND	5.53%	$30,000,000	QB27	194.5
Carson Wentz	30	WAS	2.98%	$32,000,000	QB30	143.0
Joe Flacco	38	NYJ	9.36%	$3,500,000	QB40	65.5
Teddy Bridgewater	30	MIA	11.91%	$6,500,000	QB45	49.7
Bryce Perkins	26	LAR	7.66%	$750,000	QB57	17.0
John Wolford	27	LAR	10.64%	$895,000	QB62	14.7

There’s no team that needs a starting QB who isn’t likely to draft one in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. As mentioned earlier, the teams that definitely appear positioned to grab a QB in the first round right now are Carolina with the top pick, followed by Houston with the second pick and the Colts with the fourth pick. None have more than a veteran backup on their current roster and the meager options left in free agency combined with their high draft position scream drafting a franchise QB. The only questions are who will they draft and will that QB turn out to be a franchise QB like Joe Burrow ($9,047,534), or a bust after a couple of seasons like Zach Wilson ($8,787,670)?

Arizona has the third pick but with Kyler Murray ($46,100,000) signed through the 2028 season, they seem unlikely to draft a QB. However, they do need one for at least the start of the season unless they believe that Colt McCoy ($3,750,000) or David Blough ($1,232,500) are the answer for the start of the 2023 season. Those are the only two QBs besides Murray currently on the Cardinals’ roster. Wentz or Bridgewater could be options for the Cardinals, or another team in need of a backup QB. Those other teams who appear to be currently in need of a backup QB include:

• Baltimore: If Lamar Jackson ($32,416,000) does get traded, it would seem that a likely trade partner would be one of the teams with a high first round draft pick who need a QB, so the Ravens can take Lamar’s replacement with the first round pick they receive. If not, then it could be Tyler Huntley ($2,627,000) under center in Baltimore. If Jackson isn’t traded and pulls a Le’Veon Bell by not signing his franchise tag offer, the Ravens would definitely need a backup for Huntley.
• Green Bay: Once the Packers finally trade Aaron Rodgers ($50,271,667) to the Jets since he “intends” to play for them, it would seem logical that they would sign a veteran to back up Jordan Love ($3,095,863). Any of the veterans on the list above would seem to fit the bill.
• Kansas City: With the retirement of veteran backup QB Chad Henne, the Chiefs are likely a prime candidate to pick up one of these veteran backups.
• Las Vegas: The Raiders really only have Jimmy Garoppolo ($24,250,000) as a viable NFL QB currently on their roster and with his injury history, it would seem like a good idea to get at least one more QB via the draft or free agency.
• Los Angeles Chargers: Chase Daniel ($2,000,000) hasn’t retired yet. However, since he had a second job with the NFL Network last season, it would appear to be a matter of time. The Chargers did re-sign Easton Stick ($1,800,000) already for the 2023 season, but if Daniel were to retire, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Chargers signed a veteran backup for Justin Herbert ($6,644,688).
• Los Angeles Rams: Both John Wolford and Bryce Perkins played for the Rams in 2022, but are listed as restricted free agents on the Rams website. With their experience in the Rams’ offense, it’s likely that either one or maybe both of them could return to back up Matthew Stafford ($40,000,000).
• New York Jets: If somehow the trade for Aaron Rodgers falls through or Rodgers retires because the Jets didn’t trade for Randall Cobb ($9,000,000) or bring back Jordy Nelson, then the Jets will desperately need a QB. They let Mike White ($4,000,000) go to Miami in free agency and seem committed to moving on from Zach Wilson. Stranger things have happened, but I think it’ll work out eventually for Rodgers and the Jets, so Rodgers can continue to emulate his predecessor in Green Bay, Brett Favre.

Free Agent Running Backs

We finally have our first “big name” free agents to discuss as Leonard Fournette ($7,000,000), Jerick McKinnon, Ezekiel Elliott ($15,000,000) and Kareem Hunt ($6,000,000) are still looking for work. McKinnon and Hunt had their contracts expire, while Elliott was let go by Dallas and Fournette was cut loose by Tampa Bay. Barring an injury, none of them is going to be a workhorse RB (not even Uncle Lenny), but all four should have a solid role on the right team. The rest of the list looks like minimum salary veteran depth pieces right now.

Player	Age	2022 Team	Roster %	2022 Salary	2022 Rank	2022 DOFP
Leonard Fournette	28	TB	94.89%	$7,000,000	RB12	227.1
Jerick McKinnon	30	KC	95.74%	$1,272,500	RB21	189.7
Ezekiel Elliott	27	DAL	95.32%	$15,000,000	RB22	187.8
Latavius Murray	33	DEN	62.55%	$1,120,000	RB35	140.4
Kareem Hunt	27	CLE	97.02%	$6,000,000	RB39	126.8
Kenyan Drake	29	BAL	51.49%	$1,035,000	RB46	105.1
Dontrell Hilliard	28	TEN	49.79%	$1,187,500	RB57	77.9
Justin Jackson	26	DET	25.11%	$1,035,000	RB63	66.5
J.D. McKissic	29	WAS	43.83%	$3,500,000	RB70	55.8

What NFL team doesn’t want more depth at RB? Only about 30 RBs played either 16 or 17 regular season games last season so every team needs it. We are also only one season removed from Baltimore losing its top three RBs to injury before Week 1 of the regular season. Injuries happen at RB so teams will want more depth and these players can provide that.

In terms of teams that might need a RB to shoulder some of the load in the running game or play a major role on third down, the list is smaller and includes:

• Arizona: The Dynasty Owner in me who has James Conner ($7,000,000) rostered wants the Cardinals to not add anybody in either the NFL Draft or free agency and maybe they won’t. However, it seems likely that they will add someone because a 4-13 rebuilding team with a new coach and a franchise QB out for half the season seems exactly like the type of team that will look at additional options at every position this year.
• Cincinnati: With the departure of Samaje Perine ($3,750,000) to Denver, the Bengals are pretty much left with Joe Mixon ($12,000,000) and a bunch of guys who didn’t play much in 2022, such as Chris Evans ($913,222) and Trayveon Williams ($1,232,500). Could the Bengals draft Bijan Robinson with the 28th pick, draft another rookie RB then or later? If not, they seemingly need another RB and should add one of the veteran free agent RBs still out there.
• Cleveland: See the above write-up on Cincinnati and replace Joe Mixon with Nick Chubb ($12,200,000). The Browns have drafted a RB late in the NFL Draft in each of the past two seasons, Demetic Felton ($910,285) in 2021 and Jerome Ford ($995,537) in 2022. Neither played much last year and will the Browns trust one of them to back up Chubb in 2023? They might need to because they don’t have a pick until the third round of the NFL Draft.
• Indianapolis: Both Zack Moss ($1,153,079) and Deon Jackson ($825,000) return to back up Jonathan Taylor ($1,957,287). Taylor will be a free agent in 2024 and it’s possible that they draft another RB, but it doesn’t seem like a position of need for the Colts. A veteran backfield presence in addition to Taylor could be particularly helpful with a rookie QB.
• Los Angeles Rams: Cam Akers ($1,543,258) was the only notable RB on the team after they dumped Darrell Henderson ($1,053,001). They did draft Kyren Williams ($992,601) last year in the fifth round, but he was injured for the start of the season and only had 44 touches and 215 yards of total offense. Signing a veteran on a minimum salary contract to help out Akers and Williams seems likely.
• Philadelphia: The Eagles remind me of someone who is really into collecting things – trading cards, coins, rookie draft picks in dynasty leagues, etc. That’s why they could add another RB to the team to compete with returning RBs Kenneth Gainwell ($953,882) and Boston Scott ($2,000,000) plus free agent signee Rashaad Penny ($1,350,000). I can’t imagine Penny being the only replacement for Miles Sanders ($6,350,000).
• Seattle: After spending a high draft pick last season on Kenneth Walker ($2,110,395) and seeing him blossom into a solid starter, it would seem the best move for the Seahawks would be to find a veteran backup to replace Rashaad Penny and Travis Homer ($2,000,000) who both departed the Pacific Northwest this off-season.
• Tennessee: The Titans should bring back Dontrell Hilliard since he’s been productive in each of the past two seasons as Derrick Henry’s ($12,500,000) backup. They also have Hassan Haskins ($1,088,055), but he didn’t play much last year. There are trade rumors surrounding Henry that would throw a huge wrench into the Titans’ backfield plan, but I don’t believe them.

Free Agent Wide Receivers

This list is 10 players long and I feel like I left out a few since Spotrac had 37 WRs listed as free agents. However, I think the ones below are the top ones who could help out a NFL team and provide depth for your Dynasty Owner roster at the right price. It’s surprising that only a few of them played last season on a veteran minimum salary contract. More of them should get one of those contracts if they want to play during the 2023 season.

Player	Age	2022 Team	Roster %	2022 Salary	2022 Rank	2022 DOFP
Richie James	27	NYG	51.06%	$1,065,000	WR48	133.9
DeAndre Carter	29	LAC	51.06%	$1,135,000	WR53	125.0
Marvin Jones	33	DET	34.47%	$6,250,000	WR59	116.9
Olamide Zaccheaus	25	ATL	35.74%	$2,433,000	WR64	109.0
Demarcus Robinson	28	BAL	39.57%	$1,035,000	WR71	101.8
Julio Jones	34	TB	21.28%	$6,000,000	WR98	70.4
Jarvis Landry	30	NO	35.74%	$3,000,000	WR105	59.6
Robbie Anderson	29	ARI	4.26%	$14,750,000	WR114	51.2
Kenny Golladay	29	NYG	4.68%	$18,000,000	WR149	20.1
Odell Beckham Jr.	30	None	98.3%	$1,250,000	N/A	N/A

Obviously the last name on the list is the most intriguing. Odell Beckham Jr. is almost universally rostered in Dynasty Owner despite not playing a down in the NFL in 2022. His $1.25 million salary was easy to hold when it looked like he was going to play at the end of last season and there’s little upside to dropping him now when he could sign with a NFL team soon. When that happens, he’ll be worth having on your roster or trading to another Dynasty Owner who wants him.

Probably every NFL team needs another WR. Maybe not Cincinnati with Ja’Marr Chase ($7,704,910), Tee Higgins ($2,171,696), and Tyler Boyd ($10,750,000) who finished as WR8, WR14 and WR31 respectively in Dynasty Owner last season. The other 31 NFL teams could be listed here with these teams being the ones most in need of a veteran WR.

• Baltimore: Yes, I realize that the Ravens just signed Nelson Agholor ($3,250,000). He’s their highest paid WR and makes over $2 million more than any other Ravens WR not named Rashod Bateman ($3,149,853). However, not only do they need another veteran WR, but they should take one with the 22nd pick in the NFL Draft too. Otherwise, the double and triple-teaming of Mark Andrews ($14,000,000) on obvious passing downs will continue.
• Detroit: The Lions are only listed so I can point out that Marvin Jones returning to Detroit to be the WR3 and mentor Amon-Ra St. Brown ($1,066,313) and Jameson Williams ($4,365,448) makes a lot of sense.   
• Kansas City: Which veteran WR wants to compete for a Super Bowl and signs with the Chiefs? They obviously need someone to help out Travis Kelce ($14,312,500), the undisputed WR1 in Kansas City one who happens to be a TE. It worked out perfectly for JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8,500,000) who got a one-year deal with them last year, won a Super Bowl ring, then got paid by New England.
• Los Angeles Chargers: With both Keenan Allen ($20,025,000) and Mike Williams ($20,000,000) missing multiple games last season and their third best WR (Deandre Carter) from last year still a Free Agent, the Chargers are an obvious team to take one of the top WRs in the NFL Draft. They could also use someone else to help out Justin Herbert if Allen and/or Williams gets hurt again.
• New Orleans: Dynasty Owners with Michael Thomas ($10,000,000) are rejoicing that his contract was finally completely restructured by the Saints and isn’t $19.25 million anymore. While Saints’ fans are also happy, they should also see the need for another veteran WR to help out Chris Olave ($4,817,969) in case Thomas isn’t healthy (again). They tried out Jarvis Landry for that role last year, but he only played in nine games.
• Tennessee: Treylon Burks ($3,592,398) becomes the Titans WR1 this season and replaces the recently departed Robert Woods ($7,625,000) who led the team in receptions and receiving yards last year. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($1,260,000) is entering his fourth season and is the WR with the most NFL experience on the current roster. It’s between them and Baltimore as the team most in need of a veteran WR.

Free Agent Tight Ends

Until he signed with Houston, Dalton Schultz ($9,000,000) was the biggest free agent TE available and one of the biggest free agent players overall. Without Schultz and with the recent retirement of Foster Moreau ($752,098) due to a cancer diagnosis, the list of Free Agent TEs is sparse to say the least.

Player	Age	2022 Team	Roster %	2022 Salary	2022 Rank	2022 DOFP
Irv Smith	24	MIN	80.43%	$1,449,609	TE43	54.2
Cameron Brate	31	TB	19.15%	$6,800,000	TE56	37.4
Mitchell Wilcox	26	CIN	4.26%	$825,000	TE57	36.9
Geoff Swaim	29	TEN	0.43%	$3,500,000	TE71	23.8
Anthony Firkser	28	ATL	3.83%	$1,187,500	TE80	19.0

Irv Smith has reportedly signed with Cincinnati as first reported late Monday night by Peter Schrager. However, I’m leaving him here for now since the rest of this list is pretty lousy.

It stands to reason that NFL teams might try to find another third round pick who blossoms into a top TE like Mark Andrews or George Kittle ($15,000,000) did in recent years instead of picking up one of these veterans. However, some teams will still need or want a veteran presence at the position, including these two teams.

• Dallas: The Cowboys lost Dalton Schultz to the Texans and now have a TE depth chart led by two players who were rookies last season, fourth round draft pick Jake Ferguson ($1,091,221) and undrafted free agent Peyton Hendershot ($858,333). As both of them are entering their second NFL season, a veteran TE seems like a must have for Dallas.
• Green Bay: Their leading TE in 2022 was Robert Tonyan ($2,650,000) who signed with the Bears as a free agent. Marcedes Lewis ($2,960,000) is 38 years old and Josiah Deguara ($1,136,941) only had 13 receptions despite playing in all 17 games. They could use both a rookie TE and a veteran safety value for new starting QB Jordan Love.

A few other teams, such as Las Vegas and Miami have already signed a veteran TE to a minimum salary contract this season, but could add another player. Cincinnati would have been listed, but I removed them with the reported Irv Smith signing. Even if the Bengals do officially sign Smith, drafting a TE with the 28th pick seems likely as the only TE on the current Bengals roster who caught a pass in 2022 is Devin Asiasi ($1,145,705) who has 4 receptions for 44 receiving yards in his NFL career.

Indianapolis had three TEs on their roster last year with both Jelani Woods ($1,343,118) and Mo Alie-Cox ($5,850,000) having a 2 TD game and Kylen Granson ($1,046,592) finishing the Dynasty Owner season as TE39 despite no TDs. However, none of them set themselves apart from the others so maybe there’s more room for another TE to help out either Gardner Minshew ($3,500,000) or whoever they draft with the fourth pick.

Conclusion

While it may seem that every NFL free agent signed when free agency opened back on March 15th, that’s definitely not the case. There are plenty of veterans who might sign before the NFL Draft, while some of them will still be available afterwards. Injuries will inevitably happen during Organized Team Activities (OTAs) and training camp which will let those remaining players without a NFL team find a place to play.

For Dynasty Owners, most of these NFL free agents are also free agents in a majority of Dynasty Owner leagues. If you are interested in one of these NFL free agents, picking him up before he signs a new contract is a good strategy. You’ll likely have less competition in the Free Agent Auction. If he gets a veteran minimum salary contract, your Dynasty Owner team might have additional salary cap room once the contract is updated. If you don’t like the contract, you can always try to trade him for something, or just drop him for free once the contract gets updated.

Thanks for reading and being a Dynasty Owner. Even though we are around two weeks into the 2023 Dynasty Owner league year, we are still on our off-season content schedule right now. In addition to this article, Matt Morrison – The Jerk has an article that will be available this week, while Nate Christian and Jay Pounds are on tap with articles next week.

Jay and I will have a new Dynasty Owner podcast this week and hopefully there is a Livestream on Friday at lunchtime. We didn’t have a Livestream last Friday, but you can check out previous ones on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel. Finally, don’t forget to follow Dynasty Owner on Twitter. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner