Contract Speculation and Breakdown: San Francisco 49ers

By: Matt “TheJerk” Morrison (@DynastyJerk)

Welcome back and thank you for reading. Another fantastic Wednesday has brought us another Dynasty Owner Contract article. Before I start with the contract talk, I want to briefly address the trade rumors that have come to light over the past couple of days. Word on the street is that Deshaun Watson is unhappy in his current situation. Actually, at this point I think they are more than rumors. Chris Mortenson sent out a series of Tweets on 1/10/21 that essentially stated Watson is unhappy with his current team, it’s stance on social justice issues and it’s hiring practices. Watson also has a no trade clause so he would be able to “control” his fate if it came down to a trade.

Now, I don’t like to speculate on rumors and gossip, but this seems to be something more than that. Watson was reportedly upset following the DeAndre Hopkins trade in early 2020, and that anger, apparently, has grown. I’m going to leave this conversation right here because we really don’t have any facts to react on. What I will say is that Watson (4 years, $39,000,000 per year) owners should keep a close eye on this situation and be prepared that he may not play for the Texans in 2021.

Contract Speculation

Today we will discuss the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have a plethora of expiring contracts. In all, they will have to make decisions about 38 free agents, but for our purposes at DO they have four unrestricted free agents (UFA), three restricted free agents (RFA) and one exclusive-rights free agent (ERFA). The 49ers actually have the most Dynasty Owner “rosterable” free agents of any team in the NFL. I’m going to work through a few of these players one at a time…

Tevin Coleman

First up, we have veteran running back Tevin Coleman. Coleman is 27 years old, and he just finished a two-year contract worth $4,250,000 per year. This contract once looked like a steal for the 49ers in 2019, but it has derailed over last season. Coleman injured his knee in a Week 2 win against the Jets, and after that injury, he only received 11 touches for the rest of the season. Coleman re-injured the same knee in Week 8, and he was unable to see the field much after that. I don’t expect Coleman back in San Francisco given the emergence of Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr.  There is no doubt in my mind that Coleman will demand a lower salary than his previous one. Spotrac currently has his “Calculated Market Value” at $3.3 million per year. I can’t disagree with this assessment, and it would be tough to trust Coleman given his lackluster 2021 season.

Kendrick Bourne

Kendrick Bourne is an UFA that I could actually see sticking around for the 49ers. He is 25 years old and finished a single year contract worth 3.26 million dollars. It is unlikely he will make more than that amount moving forward. While he has been a reliable red zone target and possession receiver, he has not shown the top-level volume or skill to be a high paid guy. Look for Bourne to receive a deal around 2 years – $3,000,000 per year.

Jerick McKinnon, Jeff Wilson Jr. and JaMychal Hasty

The final three players I’d like to talk about are all running backs. They are: Jerick McKinnon, Jeff Wilson Jr, and JaMychal Hasty. The career for McKinnon has been a disappointing one. He came out of Georgia Southern in 2014 as one of the most athletic and talented running backs for the class. (That actually may not be saying much as these are the running backs taken ahead of McKinnon); Bishop Sankey, Jeremy Hill, Carlos Hyde, Charles Sims, Tre Mason and Terrance West.

None of these backs (barring Hyde) has had a particularly good career. The fact remains:  McKinnon has been injury plagued especially over the past three seasons. As an UFA, look for McKinnon to find a new home this offseason and to receive a contract comparable to his current ($1,160,000 per year).

I think the path for Jeff Wilson and JaMychal Hasty to make the team are much easier and let me explain why. Jeff Wilson is a restricted free agent coming into 2021. JaMychal Hasty is an exclusive rights free agent. Let me first breakdown what these designations mean. A restricted free agent includes any NFL player that had served for three years and that has an expiring contract. A RFA has received a “qualifying” offer from his current team, but he is free to explore other teams as well. If another team gives him a better offer, his current team is allowed time to give a matching or better offer with the hopes of retaining that player. (This could be referred to as “first rights of refusal”).

This is a very simplified way of explaining it, but for our purposes that’s the summary. Wilson is an RFA. My anticipation is that the 49ers will retain him at least for next year. He will still post a low contract and hopefully, for his owners, carry a productive 2020 season over into 2021. JaMychal Hasty is a little more complicated. Hasty is an ERFA. An ERFA is any player that has not accrued two years of service in the NFL and has an expiring contract. These types of free agents are almost always undrafted rookies. Hasty fits that description, and being an ERFA, he really has no options. The 49ers are able to sign him to a one-year tender for slightly more than their original contract. ERFA have no leverage to meet or sign with other teams. Essentially, expect Hasty to be back in SF next year with a very similar contract.

Contract Breakdown

You know the drill. I’m going to break down two current 49ers contracts and give you some player comparisons as well. Before I tell you, which player this is about, let me give you a blind contract comparison…

Who would you rather own in Dynasty Owner?

 AgePer YearYears Remaining2020 Fantasy Points
Player A22$3,132,8353185
Player B23$2,792,8292212
Swipe for more on mobile.

All things considered; these are two very comparable players. I’ll tell you that they are both wide receivers if you haven’t guessed that yet. (It may have been obvious from their contracts.). As you can also see, Player A (Alpha) seems to have been a rookie last year while it’s safe to assume Player B (Bravo) was a rookie in 2019. Maybe you’d like to take a look at their raw stats in 2020 to decide who you want…

 TargetsReceptionsYardsYds/RecTotal Touchdowns
Player A966074712.47
Player B118661,19318.14
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Okay, this isn’t looking much better for Alpha, is it?  Bravo outperformed Alpha in every statistic except touchdowns and what looks to be catch percentage. However, the question remains…which player would you rather own knowing that Bravo has one less year on his very favorable contract? 

My answer would still be Bravo. I’ll take (what seems to be) the better player for one less year. Let me drop one final statistic on you and see if it changes your mind. Bravo missed one game last season. It’s looking better and better for him isn’t it?  Well, Alpha missed four games last season. In fact, this is what each of their full season stats would have been…

 TargetsReceptionsYardsYds/RecTotal Touchdowns
Player A1288099612.49
Player B125701,27218.14
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Quite a bit closer than we originally thought, right?  In the end, I would still take Bravo due to the high yardage and yards per reception, but I wouldn’t blame you if you chose Alpha.

Well, Alpha is Brandon Aiyuk and Bravo is D.J. Moore. Again, I would prefer to own Moore, but this comp hopefully showed how quietly dominant Aiyuk’s season was. While I can’t say that he is as much a value as Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb or maybe even Chase Claypool, he is still a value. These stats are somewhat misleading because George Kittle was missing from the majority of Aiyuk’s dominance.

He shouldn’t be blamed for that though. I predict that the Sophomore leap that Aiyuk makes in 2021 will outweigh the return of Kittle into the lineup. Hold Aiyuk if you own him. If you don’t, I’d be willing to pay a 2021 high 2nd for him.

George Kittle

Speaking of Kittle, he is the second contract we are going to analyze. George Kittle is 27 years old, and he was set to be a free agent this offseason after he finished a 4-year contract worth a little under $700,000 per year. As we all know, Kittle signed a 5 year – $75,000,000 contract with San Francisco in August 2020. This puts him at $15,000,000 per year and makes him the highest paid tight end in the NFL. Breaking down Kittle’s contract is a tough endeavor as he missed exactly half of the 2020 season. Regardless, we have enough data over last year and the 2019 season to do some player comparisons with him. Let’s assume that Kittle played every game over the last two seasons, and let’s assume that he would have been just as productive over his missed games as he was in his games played. This is what his fantasy production would have looked like…

George KittleRecYardsTouchdownsFantasy Points
2019 Full Season Pace971,2036253.1
2020 Full Season Pace961,2684250.2
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Okay, so we’ve established that Kittle is amazingly consistent and we know that he ranks as a Top 3 tight end, but how does his fantasy points per game and fantasy points per dynasty dollar rank against his peers. This is how…

 2021 Salary2020 FP (Full Season Pace)2021 Projected DD/FP
George Kittle$15,000,000250.2$59,952
Travis Kelce$14,312,500335.8$42,622
Austin Hooper$10,500,000139.7$75,161
Jimmy Graham$8,000,000163$49,080
Darren Waller$7,450,000282.6$26,362
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Darren Waller is clearly the value here as he makes roughly half as much as Kittle and Kelce do. Kittle’s DD/FP are, therefore, not going to reflect his value. When taking into account position scarcity and relatively cheap contracts compared to top tier wide receivers, Kittle (and Kelce) become league winners even above $14,000,000 per year. Yes, he is expensive to own. Yes, you may need to make room on your roster to fit in his new salary. Yes, you need to find a way to make it happen. Kittle, Kelce and Waller are so much more valuable at their position than any other player. Their salaries need to be considered, of course, but Owners need to see that $15,000,000 per year for Kittle is not comparable to $16,050,000 per year for Adam Thielen. The top producing tight end will always be the greater value with a similar sized contract.

Thank you for reading and keep an eye out for my video series that will highlight this article. Please follow us on Twitter @DynastyOwner and subscribe to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

Roster Roundup – Round Seven: NFC West

Taking A Dive Into The Rosters From Around The League

Author: Chris Wolf

This time of year is typically the time when teams, trainers and agents hype up their players. We know how the world has changed in recent months and the NFL is no different in its approach to returning to “normalcy”. With the news of NFL staff and players testing positive for the Coronavirus, fantasy news is taking a backseat. As a result, fantasy players are missing out on the typical hyperbole surrounding pre-season roster news and notes.

In this series we will look at who’s who on rosters and how that may help in your drafts and early waivers.

Each week we will examine a division’s skill position current roster and predictive depth chart heading into training camp to see how that relates to their fantasy outlook.

Arizona Cardinals

HC: Kliff Kingsbury

OC: Kliff Kingsbury

QB: Kyler Murray, Brett Hundley, Chris Streveler

RB: Kenyan Drake, Chase Edmonds, Eno Benjamin

WR: Larry Fitzgerald, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella, KeeSean Johnson, Trent Sherfield

TE: Maxx Williams, Dan Arnold, Darrell Daniels

Coach Kliff Kingsbury returns to what should be a much-improved offense. All eyes were on Arizona to showcase Kingsbury’s spread offense in 2019 but finished with the league’s 23rd ranked offense (per PFF). 2020 looks to be improved with a revamped offensive line that might be a better fit for the wider splits necessary for the quicker pass sets. Kyler Murray is an exciting young play caller that has a solid arm and athletic wheels. The questions about his size have been put to rest but his main drawback was his tendency to hold the ball too long in this quick tempo attack. He was sacked a league best 48 times while being charged with 23 of them as self-induced.  Murray is known to be a smart competitor and will surely progress through his reads much quicker in his sophomore year. His 20/3722/12 was a good indication of his passing chops while he was also called upon to use his sub 4.4 speed on the 65 designed runs called for him. He finished with 93 total rushes for 544 and 4 scores. He has been a very highly targeted pick in Dynasty Owner drafts due to his dual-threat ability and an $8.8 million salary.

Kenyan Drake was stranded on the Island of Misfit Toys in the beginning portion of the 2019 season until Miami traded Drake to the Cardinals in late October for a conditional 6th round pick. The 2016 3rd round selection out of Alabama never looked comfortable in either regime in South Beach but seems to be an ideal fit in this wide-open offense where he is able to work in space. Despite him ending camp in a walking boot, Drake has been a reliable player playing 62 out of a possible 64 games. Never having more than 170 NFL carries in a season, the 26-year-old is a solid bet to return top 12ish RB numbers if he continues to be the lead dog. His challenger is Chase Edmonds who is the clear number 2 that might be a number 1 on some NFL teams. Remember back to the first week of October and David Johnson was active/not active and Arizona unleashed Edmonds for 126 yards and 3 touchdowns. Edmonds looked to be on the road to fantasy stardom, but he got dinged up in that game and with two injured running backs, GM Steve Keim was forced to make the trade for Drake. Edmonds is a great depth piece with league winning potential if anything were to cause Drake to miss time. In just his second year, his $728k price tag is very intriguing. Eno Benjamin was a second-round selection in this year’s draft that has carved out a role for himself on special teams allowing him to stay on as the no.3 back to both Drake and Edmonds.

On paper this receiver group looks like fantasy gold. There is the sure-handed new-comer Deandre Hopkins that was acquired in a laughable trade, the legend that is Larry Fitzgerald who enters his 17th season, former 2nd round potential breakout Christian Kirk and the speed demon out of UMASS, Andy Isabella who was also a 2nd round selection. Murray has plenty of weapons to work with and he himself has predicted his top three receivers to all eclipse the 1,000-yard mark this season. Although not probable since no Cardinal receiver broke the 1,000-yard milestone last year, it speaks volumes to the confidence this QB has entering 2020. The TE position is not exactly a prominent position in Kingsbury’s scheme, although it does hold some real-life value. Incumbent starter Maxx Williams appears to have been edged out by new TE Dan Arnold in the media but remains at the top of the depth chart. Arnold is a 6’6” 220lb big receiver that’s listed as a TE who is a sure handed third down and red zone threat for Murray’s Cardinals. Although he might not provide much for fantasy production, he is someone to keep in mind at just $615k.

Los Angeles Rams

HC: Sean McVay

OC: Kevin O’Connell

QB: Jared Goff, John Wolford, Bryce Perkins

RB: Cam Akers, Malcolm Brown, Darrell Henderson, Xavier Jones

WR: Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Josh Reynolds, Van Jefferson, Trishton Jackson, Nsimba Webster

TE: Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everett, Brycen Hopkins, Johnny Mundt

In 2018 wonder boy Sean McVay caught the NFL with its pants down and the team rode it all the way to the Super Bowl. In 2019, NFL defenses caught up to the Ram’s offense and it seemed that the adjustments were very slow to develop for McVay and company. Goff was rewarded for his 2018 play with a 4 year $134 million which added to the odd salary situation this team has found itself in. With a lack of quality depth and the non-investment in the offensive line, a subpar front seven except for Aaron Donald and the odd handling of Todd Gurley, Clay Matthews and Brandon Cooks’ contracts, Los Angeles has yet to find its way out the murkiness that is their salary cap conundrum. 

Goff is not an elite NFL talent, but he is a much better QB than he was given credit for in his “down’ 2019. I’m sure Goff would like to forget his 78-yard performance against San Francisco in week 6, his 173 for zero TD’s against Chicago in week 11 and his week 12 line of 0/212/2 against Baltimore on Monday Night. He took a step backwards in almost every statistical category, but you have to think, how much of that can actually be attributed to his play. The O-Line was one of the most porous in the league, the running game was Jekyll and Hyde all season long and the defense found it difficult to keep points off the opposing team’s scoreboard. 2020’s Rams offseason chatter appears to continue with more two tight end looks as they began to have success with at the end of last season and with a renewed focus on the run game.

Cam Akers enters as the expected leader in backfield touches with Darrell Henderson and veteran Malcom Brown chipping in situationally.  Brown may get the ceremonial “start” in the beginning and if Henderson’s hamstring checks out, he’ll get his touches, but Akers should prove to be the three down talent that is much needed for this team. Akers could not have had a worse offensive line than he did at Florida State and hopefully, the Rams O-Line won’t have him running for his life. Akers is a very talented runner that you must be patient within his rookie campaign. The other backs will get theirs but Akers’ talent as a runner and receiver will prove it hard to keep him off the field.

Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are the 1 and 1a receiving duo that many are excited to see put up consistent fantasy points this season. Woods is the unquestioned leader and is the more consistent of the two but Kupp’s ceiling is higher at this stage of their careers. The younger Kupp demolished Cincinnati in the London game but then only put together 239 total yards over a six-game pace. This was absolutely maddening for fantasy players that rostered Kupp to only hear McVay site alignment changes and personnel adjustment as the cause. Woods’ $6.8 million cap makes for a solid potential WR1 and Kupp’s $958k salary is extremely appetizing. Behind them on the depth chart are Josh Reynolds and Van Jefferson. Reynolds figures to be the WR3 to start the year and Van Jefferson is a solid dynasty hold for when they move on from either Kupp or Woods in two years. The tight end group has two starters both capable of being TE1’s on most NFL teams. Tyler Higbee ($7.25m) has a year of NFL experience on Gerald Everett but both decided to have their own breakout seasons in 2019. Although Higbee is the one everyone has talked about, it was actually Everett who started to shine first. Everett’s first nine games boasted a stat line of 37/408/2 until a knee injury sapped him of some of his athleticism. Higbee then cut into both his and Kupp’s target share and is now considered a top 8 TE in fantasy. Both should be rostered but at $1.5 million, Everett is a very interesting stash.

San Francisco 49ers

HC: Kyle Shanahan

OC: Kyle Shanahan

QB: Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Mullens, CJ Bethard

RB: Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon, Jeffery Wilson,

Kyle Juszczyk

WR: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Kendrick Bourne, Richie James, Dante Pettis, Trent Taylor

TE: George Kittle, Jordan Reed, Charlie Woerner, Ross Dwelley

The Super Bowl silver medalists return most of their key personnel to make another run at the Lombardi Trophy in 2020. Shannan has done a terrific job at optimizing his player’s skills to his scheme and GM John Lynch has helped him by stocking the cupboard with quality talent. Jimmy Garoppolo returns under center and is the unquestioned starter after a brief 48-hour flirtation with Tom Brady. Garoppolo might not go out and put the team on his back and win you games on talent alone but he is a respectable quarterback that won’t cause you to lose many either. Whether he is a product of Shannan’s system or he is actually a good QB in the NFL is debatable, he took the team to the Super Bowl behind an absolutely dominant run game. Shanahan veered from his traditional outside zone scheme and incorporated way more counters and power run elements than ever before. Raheem Mostert shined down the stretch and transitioned his 5-team journeyman career into being a revered name in fantasy circles. The 28-year-old parlayed 137 attempts into 772 yards while tallying 8 scores. Known for his speed and vision, his 3.72 yards after contact was good for a top 16 ranking in the league. Tevin Coleman is the “bigger-bodied” part of this committee that will most absurdly siphon starts from Moestert throughout the season. Coleman is not an especially special talent, but he is a Shannan favorite that knows his system back to front. Jerrick McKinney hasn’t played the game in 3 years but is now expected to be inserted in as a speedy change-of-pace satellite back. Jeff Wilson is a special teamer and occasional touchdown vulture that may break your heart if you roster Mostert or Coleman.

George Kittle is the unquestioned No.1 receiver on this team but San Francisco boasts some quality young talent at the wide receiver position.  Led by the physical Deebo Samuel ($1.8m), this young group offers a lot of potential if they can just stay out of the trainer’s room. Riddled with training camp injuries, the early season picture may not be as bad as once believed. Samuel is looking good in his recovery from his Jones fracture and Richie James looks like he too will be available soon. Reports have come out that Aiyuk was having a fantastic early camp and established a solid rapport with Garoppolo before being temporarily sidelined due to a hamstring strain. His game likens Samuels’ but with a bit deeper threat potential. Together, they should make for a solid complement to Kittle. Kendrick Bourne is in his last year of his contract ($3.26m) and the intriguing Jalen Hurd continues to be a dynasty stash after losing out on two straight seasons.

Kittle comes in at a $15 million salary but it is hard to find a player that is more well-rounded. His overall skill set allows him to be on the field in all situations which is exactly what you crave from your TE position. A breakdown of his total snaps illustrates just how valuable he is to this franchise:

  • Passing Snaps= 498
  • Rushing Snaps= 477
  • Backfield Snaps= 25
  • Inline Snaps= 728
  • Slot Snaps= 131
  • Wideout Snaps= 91

This is a fantasy dream for this position and is well worth the investment. Jordan Reed is the other TE of note that adds a veteran depth piece that can also line up all over the field and create mismatch problems for defenses.

Seattle Seahawks

HC: Pete Carroll

OC: Brian Schottenheimer

QB: Russell Wilson, Geno Smith

RB: Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde, Rashaad Penny, DeeJay Dallas. Travis Homer

WR: Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Philip Dorsett, David Moore, Freddie Swain, Josh Gordon

TE: Will Dissly, Greg Olsen, Luke Wilson, Colby Parkinson

The $35 million per year Russel Wilson enters his age 31 season and might have the best overall receiving talent around him. The annoyingly run first team has the ability to compete with the upper half of the league in the passing game for the first time in years. Wilson’s stud plays come from plays that are outside designed plays where his athleticism allows him to buy time where he’s able to drop dimes in his receiver’s hands. He has a well-balanced receiving corps with a fine mix of down field threats and physical route runners. He is undoubtedly a high end QB1 that has the ability to be the overall QB1 in any given year.

The aforementioned run game is the meat and potatoes of this offensive scheme. The O-Line is not especially dominant, but they do their job well enough by wearing you down by sheer volume of run plays. Chris Carson is the leader in this backfield and will not only make you miss in space, but he will also run you over if given the chance. The former 7th rounder is just 25 years old and has declared himself to be 100% healed from his fractured hip. He projects to be a high volume back and barring injury, could see 250-270 carries as the near workhorse back. If you can handle his fumbles (7, losing 4 in 2019) his $616k salary is a steal for this volume back that would make a fine RB2. Backing him up will be Carlos Hyde that had a bit of a resurgence last year in Houston. Hyde is more than a placeholder for Rashaad Penny to back up Carson, he should certainly be involved in rotating series as Seattle is known to do. Rookie DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer are both solid pass catchers that should see the field in hurry up and passing down situations.

Leading the WR’s are Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Lockett was setting fantasy on fire before being limited by an injury. His 82/1057/8 stats don’t demonstrate how boom or bust he was but there were several games where he just didn’t show up. His injury limitations enabled rookie DK Metcalf to show how he can be an Alpha receiver and lead this team as the WR1. At 6’4” 229lbs, the former 2nd rounder has drawn comparisons to Dez Bryant because of his domination at the catch point but his 4.33 40 time puts him in a completely separate class. Metcalf looked like a man amongst boys at times and is a sure-fire starter for your fantasy team. Philip Dorsett is asked to run a simpler route tree then he did in New England which is a positive sign for this speedy deep threat. Dave Moore returns as a sure-handed route runner and Josh Gordon returns to ignite everyone’s memories from his last productive season in 2013.

Will Dissly returns as Wilson’s favorite seem-stretching target 10 months removed from his Achilles tear. Before his injury in November he was producing low end TE1 numbers converting 27 targets to 23 catches for 262 yards and 4 touchdowns. The third-year player will be a co-starter with the newly signed Greg Olsen. Olsen comes into his age 35 season after four years in Chicago and 9 years in Carolina. He will reportedly be a big part of this offense and could offer some sneaky good fantasy weeks. At 35 years old and a $7 million salary, he figures to be widely available if you are in a pinch for a TE. 

We hope that you enjoyed this article. Check back in a few days for the AFC West roundup!

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