By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Hello all. Thank you for continuing to read my articles, and thank you for supporting Dynasty Owner. Today I will be starting a new article series. If you followed my content over the past couple of weeks, you know that I wrote about why you shouldn’t overreact to some performances in this young season. The general idea was that one or two weeks is too small of a sample size to gauge a full season. Two weeks is too small to judge players in Dynasty Owner especially. If you play in redraft, then I can understand the willingness to make important decisions based on a couple weeks, but we are trying to build a team for years to come. Please continue to trust your off-season process and your overall plan.
As I said, today I am going to start a new series. This will be divided into four parts, and it will take a look at some of the more unbelievable statistics that have occurred so far this season. While this isn’t going to be a “Blind Player Comparison” theme, it will use some of the writing styles and tools that I use in those articles. These four articles will hopefully give you a new way of looking at some players, and most importantly, be fun to read. Hopefully, you have as much fun reading them as I do writing them. With that being said, here is my brand new series “Incredibly True Statistics.”
The first player we are going to talk about today is Tom Brady. After three weeks, Brady is the number one quarterback in Dynasty Owner. Not only is he the QB1, but he holds that spot by more than 7.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Now, I admit that seeing Brady as the top quarterback is not necessarily surprising, but the fact that he had an outstanding game in Week 3 is. Brady went up against one of the top three defenses in the NFL last week as the Bucs played the Rams. The Rams were in control of the matchup from start to finish, but that didn’t stop Brady from posting his third consecutive game with over 37.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Tom didn’t have a particularly strong game when it came to scoring touchdowns, but he made up for that with total yards. Brady passed for 432 yards and earned Dynasty Owners an additional 4 points for a +400 yard passing game.
The fact that Brady could have a well above average fantasy week while also going against possibly the best defense in the league solidifies him as a must start quarterback for the rest of the season regardless of the matchup. Coming into Week 3, I had several people asking my opinion on whether they should sit Brady. I received questions like, “Should I start Baker over Brady?” “Should I start Tannehill over Brady?” Someone even asked if they should start Daniel Jones over Brady. I answered that I would start Brady over all of those options, but deep down, I wasn’t as confident as I may have appeared to be. Well, those fears have been put to rest. Brady should be a starting quarterback in Dynasty Owner for the duration of the season.
It’s also worth noting that Brady has scored twice as many points as players like Baker Mayfield, Matt Ryan and Big Ben Roethlisberger. Again, this may not be the most surprising statistic in the world, but it continues to show how valuable he can be even in a dynasty league that takes into account salary and age.
Carr has very quietly become the QB6 in Dynasty Owner. He is averaging 32.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game on the back of a two touchdown per game average. The passing yards have also shown up this year as he is averaging 401 yards per game. Didn’t think it could get any more incredible? Well, Carr is currently the league leader in passing…by 116 yards. Carr finished as QB14 last season, and he has already totaled more than one-fourth of his passing yards for last season. He is playing at a career best pace, and I hope he can keep it up. I’m not going to declare that Carr will finish the season as a top six quarterback, but Dynasty Owners with Carr on their roster have to be happy with his performance.
Let me drop one final statistic on you…
Of the top six quarterbacks in Dynasty Owner, only one has a cheaper salary than Carr ($25,000,000). That player is Kyler Murray ($8,914,504). Depending on the matchup, I think Carr may have graduated from the Bench in most Dynasty Owners’ lineups into their Starting lineup.
Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold
Jones and Darnold came into the 2021 season as “wild cards”, at least in my opinion. They were both struggling quarterbacks on poor teams. They were both coming close to the end of their rookie contracts. They both had been paired with top five running backs that they did not have in the 2020 season.
Well, three games into the 2021 season, they are both playing above expectations. They are currently QB12 (Jones) and QB13 (Darnold). Jones may be a little more of a shock for me just because I was higher on Darnold than most this off-season.
Regardless, they are both playing good “fantasy football.” The fact that both players are on rookie (cheap) contracts makes all the difference in their value. Much of Jones’ ($6,416,014) and Darnold’s ($7,561,929) success hinges on the success of their team’s running game. Saquon Barkley has been eased back into action, but he is starting to receive increased touches. His usage has increased every game this season (11 touches, 15 touches, 22 touches). Likewise, Christian McCaffrey (CMC) came into the season healthy, but a hamstring injury forced him out of the game in Week 3. The expectation is that McCaffrey will miss some, but hopefully not much time. There is no sugar coating it. CMC’s absence hurts the Panthers, and it hurts Darnold. Even with the early success, I would consider both Jones and Darnold bench quarterbacks until I can see a greater sample size.
The biggest quarterback surprise for me this season is Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke was on my radar all off-season. The main reason for this is the fact that Washington has praised him and stated how much they like him as a prospect. We also witnessed some success last year in Week 16. The injury to Ryan Fitzpatrick was very disappointing, but that injury has provided a priceless opportunity for Heinicke.
Through three games this season, he has posted 223 yards per game, 2 touchdowns per game, 15 rushing yards per game, and 22.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. This is good for QB18. Heinicke ($2,375,000) has the third lowest salary of any quarterback in the Top 20. That combination of above average fantasy production mixed with a low salary makes him a very good Bench quarterback candidate.
Finally, let’s talk about the bad…
Aaron Rodgers is currently the QB20 on the season. Once again, there is no way to sugar coat this. It’s bad for Rodgers, but there is hope. In his three games this season, he is averaging 21.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. If you remove his Week 1 game entirely, then he is averaging 31.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Now, I never want to erase statistics. His 0.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance against New Orleans happened. It matters. But at the end of the season this will be considered an extreme outlier of a game.
Yes, Rodgers is barely hanging onto the Top 20 of quarterbacks. Yes, Rodgers is tied with Jared Goff as the fifth most expensive quarterback you can own in Dynasty Owner ($33,500,000). Yes, I am disappointed and surprised by the start to his season too. After all, he finished as QB2 in 2020. Be patient though. Every quarterback this season will have a bad game. Maybe they won’t have 0.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points bad, but there will be poor performances all around. Give Rodgers time before you give up on him. I’d be willing to bet anyone that Rodgers will be a Top 10 quarterback at the end of this season.
That wraps up the first part of my “Incredibly True Statistics” article. As always, thank you for reading and continuing to support Dynasty Owner. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.