NFL Week 1 Preview – Here We Go!

Author: Steven Van Tassel (@SteveVT33)

Football is back! Things were looking bleak a few months ago when all sports were shut down, but the NBA, NHL and MLB are all playing right now and here comes the NFL! There will be fewer fans in the stands (if any at all in certain places), but football will be on your TV starting with Thursday Night Football between the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans. And Dynasty Owner is back for its second season, the first one with 12-team leagues, but still with real NFL salaries and a hard $110 million salary cap. To all of the returning Dynasty Owners, welcome back and thanks for playing again and reading this preview. For the new Dynasty Owners, thanks for joining us and let’s go over how we do this weekly preview article.

Every week of the regular season and playoffs, we’ll present a set of players at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) who you should have as a Starter in your Dynasty Owner lineup as well as one player per position who should be on your Bench or Practice Squad. We won’t recommend a kicker to Start or Bench though (you’re welcome to all of the people who hate kickers in fantasy football, particularly Kyle Webster). These won’t be the obvious choices for Starters, like go ahead and start Patrick Mahomes, Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas and Travis Kelce (as if you weren’t going to do that already if you have them), but guys who might not be highly owned or who were drafted to be a backup. For the Bench or Practice Squad choices, we’ll find typical Starters who shouldn’t be in your Starting lineup for the week based on matchups or past performance against a team. It’ll be a little bit harder without pre-season games to review, but we need to proceed without the benefit of that information.

Finally, we will look at one Dynasty Owner game, our Match-up of the Week. For the Match-up of the Week, we will look at the overall projected score and then each team’s Starters and Bench to see how their current lineups are projected to produce. For the first week of the season, we have a special Match-Up of the Week planned.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of September 9th.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

Usually, we look to see how my recommendations from the previous week worked out (Good, Bad or Just Ok), but seeing as this is Week 1, we don’t have a previous week to review. Instead, let’s take a look at how my 2019 season predictions at each position so everyone can judge whether or not to pay attention to these recommendations. There were no Week 1 or Week 17 predictions, so we just have 15 weeks of predictions.

  • QB: Good – 5 weeks (33%); Bad – 7 weeks (47%); Just Ok – 3 weeks (20%)
  • RB: Good – 7 weeks (47%); Bad – 6 weeks (40%); Just Ok – 2 weeks (13%)
  • WR: Good – 7 weeks (47%); Bad – 6 weeks (40%); Just Ok – 2 weeks (13%)
  • TE: Good – 5 weeks (33%); Bad – 7 weeks (47%); Just Ok – 3 weeks (20%)
  • All: Good – 24 weeks (40%); Bad – 26 weeks (43%); Just Ok – 10 weeks (17%)

Overall, an average performance in 2019 with two more Bad recommendations than Good ones. In addition to the overall stats, let the record show that there were two weeks with four Good recommendations (Week 3 with Jacoby Brissett, Frank Gore, Nelson Agholor and Greg Olsen and Week 13 with Mitchell Trubisky, Derrius Guice, Cole Beasley and Jack Doyle). Let’s get off to a good start in 2020 with four good recommendations of players who should be Starters this week.

Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF): In both games last year against Arizona, Jimmy G had over 40.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. In Week 9, he had 41.1 points and in Week 11, it was 46.9 points. It’s true that several 49ers WRs are banged up right now, but he had his best week of the 2019 season at home against Arizona in Week 11 with his #1 receiving option in George Kittle out injured. Please look at the numbers and don’t discount this recommendation based on my past presidency in the Jimmy Garoppolo Fan Club.

Tarik Cohen (RB – CHI): David Montgomery’s status for the season opening game versus Detroit is unknown, but he did suffer a groin injury back on August 26th and was expected to miss 2-4 weeks. If he is out or plays a limited number of snaps, that means more Tarik Cohen for the Bears. Cohen did well in two games against the Lions in 2019 (21.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points combined) with one receiving TD. However, Montgomery also caught a receiving TD in one of the games against the Lions last year and they allowed eight receiving TDs to RBs in total all season (tied with Houston for the most in the NFL in 2019). Cohen could even pick up more rushing attempts this week with Montgomery’s injury. Cohen is a definite starter this week in either one of your RB spots or at the FLEX position.

DeSean Jackson (WR – PHI): With Alshon Jeffery and first round draft pick Jalen Reagor likely out for the Eagles Week 1 game against the Redskins, DeSean Jackson becomes the top WR in Philadelphia. And boy did Jackson love playing Week 1 versus his old football team last year. He had 35.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 1 (8 receptions, 154 yards, 2 receiving TDs) against them and could be in line for similar production in the 2020 season opener. He is only owned in 36% of Dynasty Owner leagues, but if you took a chance on Jackson and his $9.3 million salary, this is the week to put him in your Starting lineup and see if he’s still worth it.

Jordan Reed (TE – SF): After 65 games over six seasons in Washington before missing the entire 2019 season with concussion issues, Jordan Reed is now George Kittle’s backup in San Francisco. Reed will be reunited with Coach Kyle Shanahan who was his offensive coordinator in his rookie season in Washington, one in which he had 45 receptions for 499 yards and 3 TDs in just 9 games. Still, he’s a backup and only owned in 17% of Dynasty Owner leagues, why should Dynasty Owners go out and pick Reed up off the Free Agent Auction and insert him into their Starting Lineup or Bench? Answer: It’s all about the matchup against the Arizona Cardinals who had the worst defense in the NFL in 2019 against TEs. They allowed an average of 19.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game to TEs last season. In Week 11, Kittle was out for the 49ers and Ross Dwelley scored 17.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (4 receptions, 14 yards, 2 TDs) against the Cardinals. Plus the 49ers receiving corps are banged up and Kittle has been promoting the idea of using all four 49ers TEs at once (https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/george-kittle-wants-49ers-run-four-tight-end-sets-jordan-reed). Even if they just run a lot of two TE sets, Reed will be on the field a lot in Week 1. Obviously, you start Kittle this week, but feel comfortable putting Reed in your lineup as well.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Now it’s time to look at how my Bench recommendations from the previous week worked out (Good, Bad or Just Ok), but again seeing as this is Week 1, we have to take a look at how my 2019 season predictions fared at each position. Everyone can judge whether or not to pay attention to these 2020 Bench recommendations based on my 2019 performance. There were no Week 1 or Week 17 predictions, so we just have 15 weeks of predictions.

  • QB: Good – 6 weeks (40%); Bad – 4 weeks (27%); Just Ok – 5 weeks (33%)
  • RB: Good – 5 weeks (33%); Bad – 6 weeks (40%); Just Ok – 4 weeks (27%)
  • WR: Good – 5 weeks (33%); Bad – 5 weeks (33%); Just Ok – 5 weeks (33%)
  • TE: Good – 9 weeks (60%); Bad – 4 weeks (27%); Just Ok – 2 weeks (13%)
  • All: Good – 25 weeks (42%); Bad – 19 weeks (32%); Just Ok – 16 weeks (27%)

My Bench predictions were a little better than my Starter predictions. Bench predictions for TEs were where I shined the most with 60% Good recommendations. Like my Starter recommendations, I also had two weeks with four Good Bench recommendations in 2019 (Week 7 with Kyler Murray, Kerryon Johnson, Terry McLaurin and Jared Cook and Week 12 with Aaron Rodgers, Josh Jacobs, Amari Cooper and Gerald Everett). Let’s see if we can get off to a good start in 2020 with four good recommendations of players who should be sitting on the Bench or hanging out with the Practice Squad this week.

Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB): Rodgers doesn’t really like playing at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. He’s played four games there since the stadium opened in 2016. In 2017, he broke his collarbone and the other three games haven’t been a whole lot better than that. He has averaged 14.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the three games he played at the stadium (not including 2017) with no more than 216 yards passing in a single game. He’s also had 1 TD pass twice and zero TD passes once. He did rush for a TD in 2016 when he scored 17.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. In 2018, it was 15.9 points and by last year, he was down to 9.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He is only rostered in 34% of Dynasty Owner leagues, but to those owners with him on their team, leave him on the Bench or Practice Squad this week.

Kareem Hunt (RB – CLE): With an ADP of 60.2, Dynasty Owners drafted Hunt to either start in one of their RB slots or at least in the FLEX position. Hunt only played in eight games and in only two of them did he score less than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Week 16 against the Ravens was one of them. Hunt got most of his Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the receiving game last year (71.5 of out 99.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). The Ravens were one of the best teams in the NFL last year at stopping RBs from catching the football, allowing only 60 receptions for 454 yards and 1 receiving TD by a RB. Even though it’s a new coach and offensive coordinator in Cleveland, the Ravens defense should be tough again this year, so leave Hunt on your Bench this week on the road against Baltimore.

Amari Cooper (WR – DAL): The Cowboys face the Rams on the road in their first game of the 2020 season with Cooper having missed four straight practices before practicing in full on Wednesday. That’s a series of bad things for Amari Cooper’s Dynasty Owners. As I’ve noted before, Cooper has been a Bench option playing on the road in his career as a Cowboy – averaging only 9.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in eight road games in 2019 and 8.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per road game in four road games for the Cowboys in 2018. He’s also playing against a top cornerback in Jalen Ramsey and back in Week 12 of the 2019 when he played against another top CB on the road (Stephen Gilmore of the Patriots), he was on the Bench These Guys list and got a Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). Ramsey also held him to 2.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (1 reception for 19 yards) in Week 15 last year. All of that means Cooper should be on your Dynasty Owner Bench (or Practice Squad if you’re stacked at WR) to start the 2020 season.

Evan Engram (TE – NYG): As the sixth TE off the board on average in Dynasty Owner drafts (ADP 84.3), you didn’t draft Engram to have him on your Bench. However, he’s also not going to be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers defense every week like he is in Week 1. Last year, the Steelers defense was tied for 24th place in receptions allowed to TEs and 29th in yards allowed. They did allow 8 receiving TDs to TEs, but two of them came in Week 2 against Seattle before they acquired safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. In general, it’s probably a good idea to sit players going up against the Steelers defense, so get Engram out of your Starting lineup and on your Bench.

Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week – New York’s Strongest vs. VIP Club Dub

It’s time for our first Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week for the 2020 season. While all of the Week 1 Match-ups are compelling and worthy of previewing, there’s really only one team that has to be mentioned here and that’s 2019 Chase for the Ring winner Eddie Driscoll and New York’s Strongest. He’s still the only undefeated player in Dynasty Owner history (if you didn’t play in 2019, you don’t qualify for that honor) and while Eddie has more than one team, he helped put together a league of beta users from 2019 to see if he could knock off the “best of the best” in Dynasty Owner. Will Eddie continue his winning streak, or will Anthony Heuther and his VIP Club Dub squad be the first Dynasty Owner team to defeat New York’s Strongest? At first glance, based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, we see that VIP Club Dub is favored to win by 15.1 points (143.8 to 128.7).

So how is VIP Club Dub predicted to take down the Champ so decisively?  Let’s look each team’s Starters:

New York’s Strongest has the advantage at RB with Barkley and Gordon over Ingram and David Johnson, but VIP Club Dub overwhelms Eddie at TE by having Travis Kelce over T.J. Hockenson. That advantage gives VIP Club Dub an overall 8.9 point lead from his Starters.

On to the Bench where, as a reminder for new players, Dynasty Owners get 20% of their Bench scoring added to their overall point total. Each team has the following players on their Bench right now.

VIP Club Dub has a significant advantage right now with the Bench scoring and is projected to outscore New York’s Strongest at every position. The 31.5 point margin equals an extra 6.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for VIP Club Dub.

The projections have VIP Club Dub as the winner of this week’s Match-up of the Week, but nothing is official until Monday Night Football is over. Check out the Tuesday recap article to see who actually won and if your team was good enough to make it on to the first Chase for the Ring Leaderboard of 2020.

Conclusion

Please read the preview article each week, maybe your team will be featured in the Matchup of the Week. Remember that there will be a recap article coming out every Tuesday and a preview article posted every Friday throughout the Dynasty Owner season. We will also have articles from Chris Wolf (@ckwolf21), Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) and Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl) during the season as well. Follow all four of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter.

There will also be a weekly Tuesday Live YouTube podcast with the creator of Dynasty Owner and Dynasty Owner O.G. Paul Gabrail, Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer and Seth Kerechanin, the voice of Dynasty Owner. The podcast series with myself and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer will continue with weekly videos that will be posted on the Dynasty Owner channel on YouTube and other places (iTunes, Spotify, Spreaker). You can catch up with older videos and tutorials there as well. Tune in to learn more about Dynasty Owner, see how our predictions did and help you set your weekly lineup. Subscribe to the YouTube channel and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner is rapidly closing in on 500 subscribers on YouTube and thank you all for watching and listening. All of this great content is available to help you win your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Breaking Down A Real Dynasty Owner Draft Strategy by Round

Author: Jay Poundsee

Heading into my first dynasty owner draft, I felt nervous even being what most consider a pretty avid Fantasy Football player/nerd depending on who you have the pleasure of speaking too. I can sit and talk football or even better fantasy football all day every day, just ask my fiancée shell surely to agree. I had done plenty of mocks heading up to my first ever draft and felt I was as prepared as I could be heading into a format like this. After all, I have read every article Steve Van Tassel has written as well as listened to every podcast I could find with Steve and Tim. I brought my assistant fantasy manager (my 9-year-old son Bentley) up to speed and we were ready to find out our draft position. After hours of anxiously waiting, we finally get word from the guys at dynasty owner 3rd overall it is.

I was not thrilled with 3rd as I knew I would more than likely face the daunting task of drafting or passing on Patrick Mahomes, whose salary skyrockets to around $45 million next season. The thought of trying to build a team with his salary still gives me nightmares but at the end of the day someone must do it, luckily it was not me as the team before me took him. Though it would be a fascinating challenge to try to build around and win with Mahomes on my roster I was thankful the opportunity did not present itself. In Dynasty Owner it seems the draft can go many ways and it is a format where it is imperative to let the draft come to you. I thought I went in with a plan and that plan was in shreds before I even had the chance to pick.

ROUNDS 1-3

Rounds 1-3 are where you set the tone for your team going forward, meaning if you take Michael Thomas ($19,250,000) or Zeke ($15,000,000) you need to start thinking younger and cheaper moving forward. The first 2 picks went Lamar Jackson and Mahomes leaving me non-other than Christian McCaffery at ($4,000,000) with a new contract looming. The thought of having to budget after taking my first player was one, I was not fond of, but when its CMC you take him and let him carry you to a championship. The rest of round one was a good mix of Quarterbacks and Running backs with no Receivers or tight ends taken. Interestingly, only one team spent over 9 million in the first. We started out round two with a nice mix of younger cheap players, as well as a few expensive veterans. Michael Thomas ($19,250,000) went at 13, followed by Joe Burrow ($9,047,543) and Miles Sanders at ($1,337,544).

The end of the second round I watched Deandre Hopkins ($16,200,000) go the pick just ahead of me. At this point my plan was just draft well enough to be able to compete while McCaffery is in his prime, as well as keep him and resign my rookies next year. Staring me in the face was Joe Mixon ($1,362,544) with only one year left or the love of Tim’s life D.J. Moore ($2,792,829). It was my first tough decision of the draft and being a firm believer in Running backs win championships, I went with Mixon. Joe Mixon worries me as well with this being the final year of his contract, in what is sure to be an improved offense he is a sure bet to get paid. Cincinnati also gets last years, their 2019 first round left tackle, Jonah Williams back, which can only help Mixon produce this season. I took my first quarterback, New York Giants Quarterback Daniel Jones ($6,416,014) in the third round. Jones flashed real potential last season as a rookie on a pretty bad football team, so I was okay with him being my QB1 needing as much flexibility as possible to retain Mixon and CMC next season. 

I knew from all my mock drafts not getting at least one Quarterback on a rookie deal would put me into a cap nightmare moving forward. I would, no doubt, must amnesty one to have any type of flexibility going into next season. At this point I had no clue where to go next with 2 of my 3 most important pieces going into a contract year. I decided to try to just let the draft come to me as best as I could.

Rounds 4-7

I knew my 4th round pick was going to be crucial to how the rest of this draft would play out for me. I watched the 2 players I was hoping would fall to me Deandre Swift ($2,124,728) and Calvin Ridley ($2,725,178) get sniped just picks ahead of me. As it becomes my selection, I look at my screen and laugh as I see another potential top 5 running back staring me in the face, Kareem Hunt at ($3,259,000) and the kicker 1 year left on his contract just like my other guys. I looked over at my son, who I knew would have no idea what I was talking about, I said “Son I think I found an odd strategy that just might work.” He got excited and said, “let’s try it Dad.” I smashed draft on Kareem Hunt and had a somewhat clear plan.

The rest of the draft I was going to spend good money to lock down a few solid wide receivers and target players on 1-year deals with high upside. This will free up cap space for next season and give me options of who to keep and who to let go based on performance and outlook this off season in my running back room. Example, if Pittsburgh lets James Connor walk at the end of the year and signs Hunt, then Hunt becomes a no brainier to keep next season. If he flops this year or stays behind Chubb, I just opened cap space for CMC or Mixon’s new deals. When it came time to pick again, I felt like a kindergartner at snack time I was so excited. Julio Jones at a hefty$22,000,000 fell right into my lap. I had zero issue spending big to pair Julio with the CMC, Mixon, Jones, and Hunt, giving me a great core to compete this year. The 6th was what seemed another no brainer for me with Leonard Fournette ($6,787,711) and 1 year remaining (see a trend?). Taking Fournette at this pick was simple because it gave me potentially 4 stud Running backs this season as well as my pick of the litter with these four going into next season with them all on expiring contracts. As my 7th pick was approaching quickly, I noticed almost all the young cheap signal callers were gone, so I decided to reach and go with Sam Darnold ($7,561,929).

I know Darnold is not an attractive pick here, but he has flashed some positive potential and the Jets played considerably better when Darnold was on the field last season vs. when he was out with mono. Pair that with an upgraded line and receiving core it may lead to a solid year from the Jets QB. At this point I am feeling good with where my team is but knew I would need another wide-out plus some younger depth due to Julio’s age and huge contract (amnesty candidate). Also, if I have learned one sneaky good piece of advice it’s don’t be scared of an aging contract who can help win now like Julio Jones, because the amnesty provision is there when needed.

Rounds 8-13

I have to say, I have never gone into the 8th round of a fantasy football draft as anxious as I was in my Dynasty Owner draft. I watched Tyler Lockett ($10,250,000), CeeDee Lamb ($3,502,503), and Justin Jefferson $3,280,701 come off the draft board praying it was not the start of a receiver run before my next selection. Luckily, Devante Parker ($7,625,000), who I am extremely high on, was available and I do not think I could have hit draft fast enough. This gave me what I feel is a very solid floor at the two premier positions in Fantasy Football with CMC, Mixon, Julio, and Parker on top of a ton of cap space still available if I really wanted to spice things up. In the following rounds I really wanted to start adding some young talent with promising careers to my roster, so I went with one of my favorite rookies in Michael Pittman Jr. ($2,153,212). I love Pittman’s situation in Indy with him set to take on a big role this year and replace the oft-injured T.Y. Hilton full time as soon as next season. On the clock with the 118th pick, I selected the man with tree trunks for legs, A.J. Dillion ($1,321,458) running back for the Green Bay Packers. While Aaron Rodgers may not be a fan of the pick, I absolutely love Dillion as a prospect, as a pure between the tackles, old school goal line runner and feel he will have long term success in his career. Dillon has the chance to be a successful Ron Dayne.

In most fantasy drafts as well as this one, I almost always find myself waiting until later in the draft to shoot for the typical breakout tight end season we tend to see every year. One of my breakout candidates this year is Dallas Goedert ($1,406,068) with the horrible injury luck of the Eagles, it seems Philly’s tight ends are due for an even bigger year than originally expected. Alshon Jeffery seems to be starting this season on the PUP list and Desean Jackson may want to consider signing on with bubble wrap at this point; he is so fragile. I see Philly running a ton of 12 personal this season with their number 1 wide-out being a rookie in a shortened off season. This spells big things to come for Dallas Goedert and Philly’s tight end room. At pick number 142 sat The Running Back One for 3 weeks of last season (when Kamara went down) none other than Latavius Murray ($3,600,000). I find Murray to be a great upside piece for my roster especially if Alvin Kamara goes down. He is also someone who will always help with the 20% bench scoring feature here on Dynasty Owner with some standalone value. Round 13 came and I had two things on my mind Talent and cap flexibility. Anthony Miller ($1,338,425) was the selection, I have heard reports on how Miller relied heavily on pure talent in college and his rookie season, and that last year was a bit of a wake up call for him on how important attention to detail and putting in work off the field is. Needless to say it sounds like it’s a make it or break it year for Miller and those are pieces I love on my team, especially with only one year remaining giving me the ability to cut ties freely if needed this off season.

Rounds 14-18

Once you get to this point in most drafts, you are simply looking for two things, depth, and upside. The thing is this is not most drafts. There are so many ways your draft can go at this point from needing to find no-name super cheap players to even out your top-heavy cap or having plenty of room and zero worries. I was here thinking I need to find guys on 1 or 2-year deals who can produce now giving me the flexibility I need going forward. With pick number 166 I took a flier on Justin Jackson ($5,700,000). The kid has seemed to flash greatness at times averaging 6.9 yards per carry last season. I followed that up with Sammy Watkins ($9,000,000) for bench scoring, bye weeks, and cap space next season. Watkins happens to play with a quarterback named Mahomes, so I had no issue taking a chance this late on a piece of Andy Reid’s offense. This is where things started to dry up in the draft knowing I could not spend big unless they were on a one-year deal because of the need to keep as many running backs as possible next season.

My plan was to look for a few handcuffs for my players in the next few rounds. I am not typically a fan of my own handcuffs, but with Covid-19 going nowhere I feel it is necessary this season and possibly next. I took Russel Gauge ($654,049) as a potential handcuff for Julio Jones. I know Gauge would not be the direct beneficiary as that goes to Calvin Ridley, but Gauge would become an easy start each week in Dirk Koetter’s pass happy offense with Julio or Ridley going down. Ryquell Armstead was my next selection as Fournette’s handcuff. I felt he was an easy choice here as there seems to be little competition for Armstead as the Jaguars backup. Chris Thompson is there but outside of a few passing situations he does not worry me even having the shower narrative with his old coach Jay Gruden. In the 18th round I selected rookie running back for the Miami Dolphins Malcom Perry ($842,622). Perry is nothing more than a practice squad player that I hope will pan out over his rookie deal in a young talented offense.

Rounds 18-25

I will do my best not to bore you with the bottom rounds as there is not a whole lot of strategy involved, aside from finding players you feel are talented. There are a few curve balls in this format if you have cap space as players like Marvin Jones ($8,000,000), Carson Wentz ($32,000,000) and Matt Ryan ($30,000,000) were never even drafted. Quintez Cephus ($734,822) was the player I took next. I find Cephus extremely intriguing over a singular statement. The statement came from Detroit Lions corner back Jeff Okudah where Okudah was asked who the best receiver he has ever faced, Okudah replied “Quintez Cephus” being a Buckeyes fan that is enough for me to take a flier.  I selected tight end Will Dissly ($777,568) at my next spot. Dissly has had a few disappointing injuries the past 2 seasons but when healthy he has showed promise and Russel Wilson seems to love the guy. He also seems to be superhuman with how quickly he recovers from significant injuries. Famous Jameis Winston was the next pick for me. I love the thought of Winston working with Sean Payton and Drew Brees and potentially taking over. He also had Lasik eye surgery this season which may be the cause of some of the mind-numbing interceptions he has thrown throughout his career.

I wanted to take a kicker earlier than normal in this format because I wanted to make sure I got solid production without having to spend a few million. Greg Joseph ($660,000) was the pick. I am a big fan of the Titans offense going into this season. The Titans were one of the most efficient teams in NFL history on offense last season when Tannehill took over which will hopefully lead to easy freebies for my kicker with him at the helm for the foreseeable future. Jared Cook ($7,500,000) was still on the board at pick number 267 which was extremely surprising to me. With only 1 year left on his contract in a particularly good offense, I figured it was a win win with production and free cap space next year. With my final two selections of my very first Dynasty Owner draft, I took two more kickers. Brett Maher ($750,000) for the New York Jets and Matt Prater ($3,800,000). Prater was a bit more than I planned to spend on a kicker, but he plays for a good offense. I remember reading an article by Steve Van Tassel, who mentioned how important having 3 kickers was in Dynasty Owner. The reason for this is because of the 20 percent bench scoring each week, if you only have 2 kickers you will take 2 big fat ZEROs on your bench for bye weeks.

Summary and Free Agent Pickups

After the draft I was looking over my team, deciding how to spend the rest of my cap space in a responsible manner. I knew anyone I picked up had to be on a one-year deal, so I am not on the hook past this season, after all they were not drafted. Corey Davis ($6,348,672) was available and I needed more potential production at receiver, so I placed a bid and got him. Shortly after the guys from Dynasty Owner announced $2 Million in extra cap space so I placed a bid for Marvin Jones and his 1 year $8,000,000 salary. I knew Jones if healthy would offer me that extra upside and depth I need at wide out. I was surprised that I was able to pick up a player with the upside of Marvin Jones in a potential top 10 offense with the Detroit Lions for the minimum bid of 1,000,000 Dynasty Dollars. My overall draft experience here on dynasty owner was nothing short of phenomenal and addicting. There are so many different strategies to go with and most happen on the fly while drafting which makes it a lot of fun.

The strategy I went with in my draft was too get uber talented players with 1 year left on their deals in return my team only has $53,000,000 in cap space committed next season giving me plenty of freedom to do what I want next off season on top of signing my rookies. Overall, I have to say I am hooked on the in-depth year-round strategy this format takes to succeed and cannot wait for future seasons to see how my team performs, as well as running a few more teams. I hope this article helps you get a sense of what the draft process is like and gives you a somewhat in-depth look at the problems and thought process you will face in your upcoming drafts. One last takeaway from my draft and the research I have done recently for articles is that I have never seen such differences in where players are drafted as well as surprises on a draft-by-draft basis than you will find here at Dynasty Owner.  As always good luck on your Chase for The Ring!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Dynasty Owner Stock Market Report: Who’s Up and Who’s Down?

Author: Steven Van Tassell

With the NFL draft in the rearview mirror and the schedule due to come out late this week, a lot of fantasy football players are looking at what rookies will make an impact next year. Since the focus is on the rookies who were just drafted, a potentially overlooked aspect is what will be the impact of the draft on veteran players. Since this is the first season of Dynasty Owner after an NFL draft, let’s do a “stock market” report where we look at players whose stock is down after the draft and those whose stock is up.

For every rookie who will make an impact during the 2020 Dynasty Owner season, there will be a veteran player who will lose playing time, along with targets, catches or carries. The first part of this article focuses on the players most impacted in a negative fashion by his team’s selections in the 2020 NFL draft.  Because of the sheer number and talent of the rookie WRs chosen in the draft, four out of the five players whose Dynasty Owner stock is down after the draft are WRs.

On the other hand, sometimes the draft improves a player’s stock with his team. It could be because the team didn’t draft any players to compete with him for playing time or their team drafted players who should help him perform better. In the second part of this article, the focus will be on some players whose stock should rise because of what their team did or didn’t do during the draft. In contrast to the stock down list, we have players at every skill position (QB, RB, WR and TE) on the stock list up.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth .25 points for every 10 yards.

Stock Down for These Players

Amari Cooper (DAL – WR): Jerry Jones got to do the draft alone on his yacht without those pesky scouts, coaches and player personnel people around to influence his selections. Rumor has it that this is what happened in 2014 when Jerry really wanted to draft Johnny Manziel and the Cowboys front office staff convinced him to draft a player at a position they needed (offensive guard Zack Martin who by the way has made it to the Pro Bowl in each of his first six seasons, the fifth offensive lineman to ever do that). Not this year! Despite needs at other positions and having two top WRs in Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, Jones couldn’t resist taking a WR who slipped down to the 17th pick in CeeDee Lamb.

The selection of Lamb should reduce targets for both Cooper and Gallup, but in Dynasty Owner, it’s Cooper will be negatively impacted to a greater extent since he costs $20 million per season for five more seasons vs. $880,995 for Gallup for the next two years. Sometimes a team can have three productive receivers (see the 2018 Rams through the first five games, before Cooper Kupp got injured, as Kupp, Robert Woods, and Brandin Cooks were all top 25 fantasy WRs), but for what Cooper is making, he needs to be a clear #1 WR. He’s unlikely to earn that salary now with both Gallup and Lamb around.

Tyrell Williams (LV – WR): The Raiders drafted a WR (Henry Ruggs III) in the first round which obviously hurts the value of the rest of the WRs on the team. After that, they went ahead and drafted two more WRs with back-to-back third round selections (Lynn Bowden Jr. and Bryan Edwards). Drafting three players at the same position can only be seen as an indictment of the current guys on the roster who play the same position.

Some people think these picks plus the addition of veteran TE Jason Witten foreshadows a reduction in Darren Waller’s usage, but the player most impacted in Dynasty Owner will be WR Tyrell Williams. Williams is still getting paid Top 20 WR money as he’s scheduled to make over $11 million in 2020. Williams is owned in only 41% of Dynasty Owner leagues right now and those owners are probably wishing they dropped him for free when they had the chance.

Alshon Jeffery (PHI – WR): Another team with poor production and injury problems from its WRs in 2019 were the Philadelphia Eagles. To address this glaring issue, the Eagles went ahead and drafted WR Jalen Reagor in the first round. This selection hurts the fantasy value of all of the Eagles incumbent WRs who were injured or didn’t play well in 2019 (Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside). The player who will be hurt the most though is Alshon Jeffery. That’s because Jeffery’s salary is higher at $13 million than the $9.3 million that Jackson will make and much higher than the $1.236 million due Arcega-Whiteside in 2020. 

A.J. Green (CIN – WR): Despite not playing a down in 2019, some Dynasty Owners still kept Green on their rosters through amnesty and are preparing to pay him nearly $18 million in 2020. Those owners were likely expecting Green to develop a rapport with rookie QB Joe Burrow and a return to 2018 form when he scored 10.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points in all eight games he played before getting injured, averaging 18.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game.

What his Dynasty Owners were not anticipating was that the Bengals would grab a WR (Tee Higgins) with the first pick of the second round. Green’s 2020 salary is over $7 million higher than fellow Bengals WR Tyler Boyd ($17.97 million vs. $10.75 million for Boyd). The Bengals also just signed Boyd to a 4-year, $43 million deal last off-season, so they probably see Boyd and Higgins as their WR duo of the future, not Green.

Jimmy Graham (CHI – TE): When the Bears released fellow highly paid TE Troy Burton a few days before the NFL draft, Graham’s stock was looking up as the top TE on the team, even though the Bears have plenty of TEs on their roster. Then the Bears went ahead and drafted another TE in the second round (Cole Kmet). By having his new team use a high pick on another TE, it shows that the Bears probably don’t think Graham will return to his 2011 and 2013 form in 2020 and want to have his replacement ready to go. At $8 million per year for both 2020 and 2021, Graham is the 7th highest paid TE in Dynasty Owner and will need to hold off Kmet and the rest of the Bears TE corps to be valuable enough to be paying that much for two more years.

Stock Up for These Players

Jarret Stidham (NE – QB): Long-time Patriots fans shouldn’t have been surprised that Bill Belichick didn’t spend a draft pick on a QB this year. For years, people have assumed that the Patriots would draft a replacement for Tom Brady in the first round and he never did it. Remember that Jimmy Garoppolo was a late second round pick, Jacoby Brissett was a late third round pick and Stidham was a late fourth round pick. Now that Brady is gone to Tampa Bay, Belichick didn’t suddenly change and draft a QB with the Patriots first round pick. He did what he’s done many times in the past – he traded down for more late round picks. As Belichick might have said “On to Cincinnati”.

The decision to not draft a QB was a vote of confidence in Jarret Stidham as the Patriots starting QB for 2020 and maybe beyond, depending on his performance. Stidham will only cost Dynasty Owners $788,423 per year for the next three seasons and he’s still available in quite a few leagues (37% to be exact). If you’re a Belichick believer and Stidham is available in your league, go ahead and grab him before someone else does.

Matthew Stafford (DET – QB): Another team who many people thought would draft a QB in the first round was the Detroit Lions. In a vote of confidence for incumbent QB Matthew Stafford, they didn’t and roll into the 2020 season with Stafford, career backup Chase Daniel and David Blough, who started the last five games of the 2020 season as a rookie, as their QBs. Lions’ General Manager Bob Quinn also just gave a vote of confidence to Stafford in an by saying “Matthew (Stafford) is our guy” (https://lionswire.usatoday.com/2020/05/03/bob-quinn-is-happy-with-where-the-lions-stand-at-quarterback/.

Not only did they not draft his replacement, the Lions helped out their porous running game, ranked 21st in yards per carry and 22nd in yards per game in 2019, by drafting D’Andre Swift with the third pick of the second round (35th overall selection). Swift was the second RB drafted and should start and help improve the Lions’ running game to take pressure off of Stafford. While Stafford is making $27 million in salary, that’s only the 11th highest in Dynasty Owner. He’s available in 91% of Dynasty Owner leagues right now for anyone who has that kind of room on their roster for one of the favorites for the 2020 Comeback Player of the Year award.

Jordan Howard and Matt Brieda (MIA – RB): Instead of drafting a RB, the Dolphins took their QB of the future in the first round (Tua Tagovailoa) and two offensive linemen (tackle Austin Jackson in the first round and guard Robert Hunt in the second round). The selection of the linemen should help the Dolphins running game with Howard and Brieda being the primary beneficiaries.

In case you want to go grab them in the Free Agent Auction, neither one is available in many Dynasty Owner leagues (Brieda is owned in 98% while Howard is owned in 93.5%). Brieda is cheaper ($3.259 million vs. $4.875 million for Howard) and only has one year left on his deal versus two years for Howard, so his stock might be up a slight bit more than Howard’s. However, both of them and their owners should benefit from how the Dolphins drafted in 2020.

Allen Lazard (GB – WR): In case you weren’t aware, Lazard was the #2 WR in Green Bay in 2019 with 102.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 11 games, an average of 9.3 points per game. He dressed for all 16 games, but only had a catch in 11 of them. The only WR that the Packers signed so far this off-season is Devin Funchess, who was a disappointment in Carolina and injured for almost all year in 2019 with Indianapolis. In a curious move, they also didn’t draft a WR in the 2020 draft at all. That wasn’t the only curious Green Bay draft move this year, but that’s a story for another article.

For Lazard’s Dynasty Owners, this was good news as it means he’s probably locked in as the #2 WR behind Davante Adams for 2020 for only $675,000 in salary. That’s a great bargain and if you are in a league in which Lazard is available in the Free Agent Auction (35% of them), you should probably go grab him ASAP.

Jonnu Smith (TEN – TE): Delanie Walker is no longer a member of the Tennessee Titans as he was released back in mid-March. This led to speculation that the Titans might grab a TE in the draft. They didn’t so it looks like Jonnu Smith will be the starter. He earned the opportunity to work with Ryan Tannehill again as in the 10 games that Tannehill started in 2019, Smith averaged 8.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game and had 4 games with 10.0 or more points. Over a full 16-game season, this would have made Smith the 11th ranked TE in Dynasty Owner last season. Not bad for just $776,572 in salary for 2020. He is owned in 87% of Dynasty Owner leagues so there are plenty of Dynasty Owners who will benefit from having Smith on their roster this year.

Conclusions

After the NFL draft, there is always a lot of talk about the players drafted and projections on how they are going to do at the next level. Just as important for Dynasty Owners is figuring out how the draft will impact the value of current players already on their rosters. There were plenty of WRs drafted this year, which negatively impacted the value of several veteran WRs, while players at every position had an anticipated increase in value based on who their teams did or didn’t draft.

There is lots of activity coming up in the Dynasty Owner universe as Tim outlined recently. The NFL schedule is also due to be released by the end of the week. There are Dynasty Owner podcasts to view if you haven’t seen them yet. We also have Slack message board debates and commentary on breaking NFL news, a couple of articles by Chris Wolf (follow him on Twitter – @ckwolf21) and one from our newest writer, Milos Ljubic. All of this great content is available to help you win your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

Steven Van Tassell is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner.

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Old Faces in New Places (The Jeffersons Version)

Author: Steven Van Tassell

We’re a moving on up! Moving on up! To the East Side! To a De-Luxe apartment in the sky! This first of two articles on players who have moved teams since free agency started will focus on players who received a salary increase. That’s why the title has the Jeffersons in it (look it up if you don’t get it).

While they all may have gotten a salary increase, some of them will be worth the extra money, some won’t be, and others are in the middle. There are a lot of players who left one team in free agency for more money with another team, so we can’t cover everyone (sorry if you are looking for analysis of Robby Anderson, Tajae Sharpe or Case Keenum). Instead, let’s take a look in depth in this article at a few other players.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth .25 points for every 10 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

I’ll Take Veteran QBs for $25 Million, Alex

This off-season, we had two veteran QBs sign $25 million contracts with new teams – Philip Rivers and the G.O.A.T. (Tom Brady). While Brady is older (43 when the 2020 NFL season starts vs. 38 for Rivers), he was the one who got a two-year deal, while Rivers settled for just one year. That’s just not fair, Rivers has nine kids to support!

Regardless of how many kids they have or age, both Rivers and Brady are tied together this off-season because they are playing for a new team for the first time in the twilight of their careers. Their $25 million contracts, on average, put them into a tie with Drew Brees and Derek Carr for 12th on the list of highest paid QBs (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/quarterback/). Both are making slightly more than in 2019, $2 million for Brady and almost $4.2 million for Rivers. However, which one (if either) is a better fit for your Dynasty Owner team, or should you drop Rivers or Brady if you have them on your roster currently. We’ll break down Brady first, because he’s the G.O.A.T. then Rivers.

Brady finished the 2019 season as the #11 QB in Dynasty Owner (for the second consecutive year) with an average of 21.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. He was fairly consistent as he really only put up one very bad game (4.2 points in Week 4 versus Buffalo) versus four games with 30.0+ Dynasty Owner fantasy points (three in the first five weeks, then one thereafter). He’ll be another year older in 2020, but has better WRs in Tampa Bay (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin) than he did in New England (Julian Edelman), but a worse running game (Ronald Jones in Tampa Bay versus Sony Michel, James White and Rex Burkhead in New England) to help take the load off.

So, the question of the day is – Is Brady going to improve in 2020? Honestly, probably not, but he could stay in the same range as the past two seasons and finish as the #11 QB again, which is fine based on his salary ranking. For the Dynasty Owners who have him on their roster (he’s owned in 89% of Dynasty Owner leagues), hold him unless you really need the salary cap room or have a younger, better QB (or better yet, two) on your roster. Trading is dicey as what are you going to get in dynasty for a 43-year old QB?

Rivers is owned in fewer Dynasty Owner leagues (48%) than Brady and finished the 2019 season as the #18 QB in Dynasty Owner, a decline from #12 in 2018. His weapons in Indianapolis (T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack and Jack Doyle plus a rookie/free agent WR) aren’t as good as they were on the Chargers (Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Hunter Henry), so expect that he’s not going to be better in 2020. Maybe having an actual home crowd to play in front of will make him perform better, but don’t count on it. Drop Rivers if you need salary cap room or if a cheaper, younger QB such as Teddy Bridgewater ($21 million contract, owned in 43% of Dynasty Owner leagues) or just a younger QB who costs the same (Derek Carr – owned in 41% of Dynasty Owner leagues) is available.

Are These Receivers Worth Four Million More?

In another coincidence, we have three receivers (two WRs and one TE) who got new contracts with new teams that will pay them $4 million more than they were paid in 2019 (technically, it’s “only” $3.75 million more for Tyler Eifert, but that’s close enough). All of them were not highly owned in Dynasty Owner in 2019 at their old salaries, but are expected to have expanded roles with their new teams, thus justifying the higher salary to their new team. The question for Dynasty Owners is – Are they worth their new 2020 salary or not?  Let’s take a look and see.

  • Former Packers and Cowboys WR Randall Cobb signed a 3-year, $27 million contract ($9 million per year for Dynasty Owner purposes) with the Houston Texans to replace the traded DeAndre Hopkins. At least, that’s the assumption and what the Texans hope happens. He was only owned in 4% of Dynasty Owner leagues at $5 million in 2019 when he was on the Cowboys and finished the season as the #44 WR in Dynasty Owner with 153.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He did miss one game, so his average was just over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game (10.2). Unless he improves greatly on that performance in 2020, he’s unlikely to be worth $9 million, which puts him right now as the 28th highest paid WR in 2020 (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/wide-receiver/). If you have $9 million in salary cap room and think Cobb will improve in the Houston offense over what he did for Dallas and become someone you can put in your Active lineup as a WR or FLEX on a weekly basis, then he’s almost certainly available in your league and you should go pick him up. I don’t support that move and think you can find better ways to spend that salary cap space.
  • For $1 million less, Dynasty Owners can pick up Breshard Perriman of the New York Jets. Like Cobb, the former first round pick of the Baltimore Ravens is making $4 million more in 2020 than 2019 ($8 million in 2020, up from $4 million in 2019), but he’s three years younger than Cobb (27 at the start of the 2020 NFL season versus 30 for Cobb). Perriman projects as the top outside WR threat for the Jets, which was Robby Anderson last year. Anderson finished #41 WR, but had to play several games without Sam Darnold at QB with mostly Luke Falk in his place (0 TDs in three games and released as soon as Darnold was healthy and back ready to play QB). Perriman had flashes of brilliance at the end of the 2019 season with Tampa Bay and averaged 21.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the final five games of the season (helping many fantasy players at the end of the season and in the playoffs). He probably can’t sustain the success he had at the end of last season, but I’d take him over Cobb if I needed a WR and had the salary cap room. He’s available in 70% of Dynasty Owner leagues, so take a look if you have roster space and $8 million available.
  • Finally, we have new Jacksonville TE Tyler Eifert. Eifert technically didn’t get a $4 million increase (it was only $3.75 million), but still raised his salary from $4 million in 2019 to $7.75 million in 2020 when he signed his new 2-year, $15.5 million contract. If Eifert is the 2015 version of himself, then he’s well worth this new contract (52 receptions, 615 yards receiving, 13 receiving TDs in 13 games). However, if he’s the Eifert who played only 14 games over the next three seasons from 2016 to 2018, or the 2019 version who played all 16 games but only had 106.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, then he’s definitely not worth it. Eifert averaged just 6.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in 2019 and finished as the #19 TE. According to Spotrac, he’s the eighth highest paid TE (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/tight-end/). I just don’t see him as being worth that contract, even with Gardner Minshew II throwing him the ball, so his Dynasty Owner ownership of 20% should go down, not up during this free drop period.

Greg the Leg Moves from LA to Dallas

Finally, we have another kicker, in addition to Mason Crosby who was highlighted in a previous article (https://dynastyowner.com/2020/03/afford-new-home/), who got a new contract worth more than he made in 2019. Greg Zuerlein, aka Greg the Leg, received a three year, $7.5 million contract from the Dallas Cowboys and will no longer be kicking for the Rams. Greg the Leg was with the Rams so long that he played with them when they were still in St. Louis.

His new contract is worth only $250,000 more per year than his old one, but is he really worth $2.5 million in Dynasty Owner salary cap room? Should his Dynasty Owner drop him or keep him (you can’t pick him up because he’s owned in 98% of leagues right now)?

Even though $2.5 million seems like a lot of your $110 million salary cap for a kicker, Zuerlein will only be the 18th highest paid kicker in the NFL in 2020 (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/kicker/). He finished as the #13 kicker in Dynasty Owner in what was a poor season for him. He missed nine FGs in 2019 (1 FG under 40 yards and 8 of 40+ yards), but was perfect in PAT attempts (42 for 42). He missed as many FGs in 2019 as he did in the prior three seasons combined. As a Zuerlein Dynasty Owner, I’m sticking with Greg the Leg and predicting that he bounces back in 2020. I have two other, cheaper kickers as well and recommend everyone try and have the same on their roster.

Conclusions

Not everyone who got a new contract in 2020 is going to be worth the higher salary in Dynasty Owner. Breshard Perriman is one player who Dynasty Owners should look at getting if he’s available in your league, the G.O.A.T. and Greg the Leg are two guys to hold. Dynasty Owners can probably even try to work a trade for Zuerlein as well. In contrast, Randall Cobb, Tyler Eifert and Phillip Rivers can be dropped if you need salary cap room or left in the Free Agent Auction.

There’s more contract news to cover before Dynasty Owners have to pay the drop fee to release a player. A second article about players who switched teams this off-season, but are getting paid less than they did in 2019, is coming tomorrow. And don’t forget about all of the great Dynasty Owner specific podcasts (particularly the Live podcast from Friday – which was a lot of fun), message board debates and Twitter posts.  All of this great content is available to help you win your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

Steven Van Tassell is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner.

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Trading Places

Author: Steven Van Tassell

What a great movie! The 1983 comedy starring Dan Ackroyd and Eddie Murphy with Jamie Lee Curtis plus Ralph Bellamy and Don Ameche as the Duke brothers. I love that movie and personally own a Duke & Duke Commodities Brokers T-shirt and went on a tour of Philadelphia that highlighted the Duke brothers bank location.

I could go on and on, but this isn’t a movie review article. It’s a Dynasty Owner fantasy football article about recent trades in the NFL and their Dynasty Owner impact. There have been several trades since the start of NFL free agent signings last Wednesday and even before that as teams could start negotiating with free agents starting last Monday. While many of the players traded have been offensive linemen or on the defensive side of the ball, which doesn’t matter in Dynasty Owner, some players traded might be on your Dynasty Owner roster and others might still be available in your league’s Free Agent Auction.

Trades aren’t going to change the player’s contract details – for the most part, unless they sign a new deal with their new team. However, a trade can impact their usage and productivity and make an underutilized player in 2019 into a superstar in 2020 (David Johnson – your Dynasty Owners are looking at you) or vice versa.

Surprisingly, there are plenty of trades to cover. Does anyone else remember the days when NFL trades were rare and mostly players getting traded for draft picks, not other players? Trades like the “Great Trade Robbery” deal in which Dallas traded Herschel Walker to the Minnesota Vikings for eight draft picks that the Cowboys eventually turned into 5 players (Emmitt Smith, Russell Maryland, Darren Woodson, Kevin Smith and Clayton Holmes) who helped lead them to 3 Super Bowl victories in the 1990s. How shrewd of Jimmie Johnson to pull off that deal? And yes, I’m giving Jerry Jones zero credit – look what he’s done as Owner and General Manger since Jimmie and his players have left – Nothing! Now, it seems like there are trades every off-season and even some during the season, such as the Dolphins trading off several players in the middle of last season, including Kenyan Drake to the Arizona Cardinals.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth .25 points for every 10 yards.

Mega-Trade Analysis

No, not Kyle Allen to the Redskins or Nick Foles to the Bears. I’ll get to those deals later. I’m talking about the David Johnson-DeAndre Hopkins trade (plus draft picks) between the Arizona Cardinals and Houston Texans. The consensus is that the Texans gave up too much (Hopkins and a fourth-round pick in the 2020 NFL draft) to acquire Johnson (plus a 2020 second-round pick and 2021 fourth-round pick) from the Cardinals. Here is a sampling of headlines about how the Texans got fleeced:

Personally, I feel like this trade gets rejected in many traditional dynasty leagues, but what about Dynasty Owner? How will the trade impact Dynasty Owners who have Hopkins (rostered in 100% of Dynasty Owner leagues) or Johnson (rostered in 89% of Dynasty Owner leagues) on their Dynasty Owner rosters (Full disclosure: I’m a David Johnson Dynasty Owner and have seriously considered releasing him).

For Hopkins owners, this appears to be a really good deal. In 2019, he was the #5 WR in Dynasty Owner for the entire season, even though he didn’t play in the season finale. This is after being the #1 Dynasty Owner WR in 2018. Based on current average salaries on Spotrac, Hopkins’ $16.2 million salary is tied for the eighth highest among WRs (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/wide-receiver/).

Hopkins should be able to, at least, maintain the production he had with Deshaun Watson and Bill O’Brien in 2018 and 2019 with Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury in 2020, so his Dynasty Owners definitely should hang on to him. Even better news for his Dynasty Owners is that they can keep him for 3 more years at that price (provided the Cardinals don’t rip up his deal and give him more money). Hopkins will be the clear top WR in Arizona and is an immediate upgrade over their top two WRs from 2019 (Larry Fitzgerald who was the #35 WR in Dynasty Owner and Christian Kirk who was ranked #37), also making QB Kyler Murray a better value in Dynasty Owner as well.

For Johnson owners, the outlook is improved from what was expected in Arizona, but questions remain on if he is worth his Dynasty Owner salary. Johnson will cost his Dynasty Owners $13 million in both 2020 and 2021. After the Rams released Todd Gurley, Johnson became the third highest paid RB in the NFL behind Ezekiel Elliott and Le’Veon Bell (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/running-back/).

Johnson is a replacement for Carlos Hyde as the Texans’ lead RB and Hyde was the #29 ranked RB in Dynasty Owner in 2019. If he performs at the same level as Hyde did, then he’s clearly a candidate to drop while Dynasty Owners can drop for free (until March 31st). If you are a believer in Johnson’s abilities and think he can perform at the same level he did in the first six games of the 2019 season (121.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, or 20.2 per game) and do that over the course of the entire 2020 season, then you’re looking at 323.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. That would have been good for the #2 RB in Dynasty Owner in 2019, behind only Christian McCaffrey and just ahead of Aaron Jones who had 322.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. That level of production is totally worth his $13 million salary.

This is a tough call for Johnson’s Dynasty Owners. I’m holding him for now, but would be open for trade offers if I get any. If you don’t own Johnson in your Dynasty Owner league and think he’ll perform as well as he did in the first six games of 2019, then make an offer to the Johnson owner in your league and see what happens. If you think he’s more like the RB who was stuck behind Kenyan Drake at the end of last year or even just the #9 Dynasty Owner RB like he was in 2018, then dropping Johnson and saving $13 million in salary cap room is the way to go.

Receivers Getting Traded for Draft Picks

The Buffalo Bills made a splashy trade, getting Vikings WR Stefon Diggs (and a seventh round draft pick in 2020) in exchange for a first round 2020 draft pick (#22 selection) plus three additional picks (2020 – fifth and sixth round picks and 2021 – fourth round pick). Diggs was unhappy in Minnesota and his Dynasty Owners hope a change of scenery will return Diggs’ performance back to his 2018 levels. He was the #11 WR in Dynasty Owner in 2018, but fell back to #24 in 2019 after being drafted on average at the end of the fourth round in Dynasty Owner drafts (ADP 39). He did win a Dynasty Owner Player of the Week honor in Week 6 with a 43.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance, but otherwise averaged just 11.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in the rest of the Dynasty Owner regular season. That wasn’t the performance his Dynasty Owners were looking for in a player costing $14.4 million in salary.

Will Diggs be able to improve in Buffalo with QB Josh Allen and his 58.8% completion percentage or will he continue to disappoint? Even though it’s free now until the end of the month, dropping Diggs isn’t really a good option for his Dynasty Owners (and nobody has done it yet as his ownership remains at 100%). He seems likely to compete with John Brown for catches in Buffalo, so I’m not completely sold on him returning to his 2018 performance level. My recommendation is trading him (if possible) to a Dynasty Owner who’s more optimistic about the deal.

Hayden Hurst goes from Baltimore to Atlanta to replace Austin Hooper as the Falcons TE.  He was traded (plus a fourth round draft pick) for a second and a fifth round pick. Speaking of trades, that’s probably what you’ll need to do to acquire Hurst in Dynasty Owner as he’s rostered in 83% of leagues right now. The late first round draft pick in 2018 was stuck behind Mark Andrews in Baltimore, but still managed to catch 30 passes for 349 yards and 2 receiving TDs (76.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) and finish the 2019 season as the #34 TE in Dynasty Owner. Now with Atlanta, he has the opportunity to be the top TE and could project as a top 10 Starting TE in 2020. His $2.76 million contract is very reasonable. Make an offer if you don’t own Hurst in Dynasty Owner and want him on your roster, then hope his current Dynasty Owner doesn’t value him as much as he should.

Quarterbacks on the Move

For everyone who was waiting for what to do about Nick Foles and Kyle Allen, this section is for you. Both were traded for roughly the same amount as Foles was shipped from Jacksonville to the Chicago Bears for a compensatory fourth round pick (140th overall selection), while Allen was dealt to Washington from Carolina for a fifth round selection (148th overall). Pretty similar trade return for players with very different salaries in Dynasty Owner.

Nick Foles becomes the favorite to be the starting QB in Chicago, but still has to beat out Mitchell Trubisky for the job. Foles was injured in the first game of the 2019 season and played only two full games after returning from injury (averaging a respectable 20.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in those games). However, he also played awful in his third start back with -4.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points from three turnovers before being replaced by Gardner Minshew II for the rest of the season. His contract is pretty low for a veteran QB at $22 million per year (17th highest right now according to Spotrac, but he’ll be on your Dynasty Owner books for three more years at that figure. Unless Foles voids the contract after the 2020 season, which he can do now after restricting his contract after being traded. If you need to drop a higher priced QB like Aaron Rodgers to make some room, Foles is widely available. He’s only rostered in 9% of Dynasty Owner leagues. Grab him now, if you think he becomes the starter and plays well in Chicago as he could be your Dynasty Owner Bench QB or a flex Starter depending on matchups.

In contrast, former Carolina QB Kyle Allen is rostered in a majority (57%) of Dynasty Owner leagues after playing in 13 games last season. He’s reunited in Washington with Head Coach Ron Rivera, but seems likely to be the backup for the Redskins behind Dwayne Haskins. However, just because he’s the backup doesn’t mean you should drop him in Dynasty Owner. His one-year, very salary cap friendly contract (for either $585,000 or $675,000 depending on the source) means that he’s a great Practice Squad stash for your team in case Haskins gets injured or is ineffective. He was the #29 QB in Dynasty Owner last year, but did have two games of more than 30.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and three additional games of more than 20.0 points, so he was serviceable as a Starter or Bench QB in select games. Don’t drop Allen just yet if you own him and pick him up if available in your league as your third or fourth QB. With 30 man rosters now, Dynasty Owners should have an available roster spot for his miniscule salary.

Conclusions

Now that the new NFL league year has kicked in, free agents have started signing new contracts, some with new teams and some re-signing with their current team. Plus, trades are being made.  Trades generally aren’t going to change salary figures, but may cause Dynasty Owners to change their outlook on a player with only a week to go to get your Dynasty Owner roster up to at least 25 players, but not more than 30, and your team’s salaries under the $110 million salary cap.

Out of the players traded so far this off-season, DeAndre Hopkins and Hayden Hurst are the most likely to improve on their 2019 performances, but if you don’t own either one, you’ll probably have to give up something of value to get them from their current Dynasty Owner. Hurst is in the Free Agent Auction in a few leagues, but not many, while Hopkins is not. David Johnson is intriguing but a risky hold because of his $13 million salary, while Dynasty Owners should be looking to deal Stefon Diggs if they need the salary cap room. Neither traded QB is a lock to start, but Nick Foles might be the starter in Chicago. Kyle Allen is cheap to own and stash on your Practice Squad if he’s available as a Free Agent in your league.

There’s lots more contract news to cover as we haven’t yet talked about free agents who signed with new teams. That’ll be the focus of the next article to help Dynasty Owners with their decision-making before free drops end at the end of March. Besides these articles, don’t forget about all of the great Dynasty Owner specific podcasts, message board debates and Twitter posts. All of this great content is available to help you win your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

Steven Van Tassell is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner.

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

These Guys Can Afford to Buy a New Home, but Don’t Have to Move Far

Author: Steven Van Tassell

There has been a whirlwind of activity since Monday (and even before that) with many big names in the NFL re-signing with their current team, being traded or signing elsewhere in free agency. For “regular” dynasty fantasy football, these moves are important, but they don’t have the same impact as they do in Dynasty Owner. For example, a player who gets a new contract from his current team, like Austin Ekeler or Ryan Tannehill, is good to know, but isn’t likely to dramatically affect his status with your “regular” dynasty team.

However, that’s not the case in Dynasty Owner! Just last year, Ekeler owners got a huge amount of production for only $563,500 in salary, as did Tannehill owners for a mere $2 million. Now, Tannehill got $118 million over four years from the Titans and Ekeler just signed a 4-year, $24.5 million contract with the Chargers. Dynasty Owners need to figure out how to keep Tannehill and Ekeler at those increased salary levels, drop them and get nothing in return or trade them to another Dynasty Owner who has the room to fit them under the $110 million salary cap. So much more strategy than regular fantasy football as you’ve probably heard El Jefe Dynasty Owner Paul say on the podcast.

In this article, we’ll look at some of the most recent signings so far in the NFL off-season in which a player re-signed with his current team and their impact on Dynasty Owner. There have been more than enough of these signings to cover. Then, we’ll start to take a look at players who have moved teams. There has been a lot of movement, so we can’t cover everything. However, we’ll take a look at some key moves and the impact on the player and what their Dynasty Owners should do with them.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth .25 points for every 10 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

A Quick Look at Five Players with New Contracts

Some players got a new contract that pays them a lot more money than last year to stay with their team. Not only are they now making more money, but they don’t even need to spend a lot of it hiring a moving company to take all of their stuff to a new city. Maybe they will buy a new home with all of the extra cash and move a few miles to a new house, but it won’t cost as much as going to a completely different city.  In order of total contract size, we have:

  • Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN) – Tannehill’s new 4-year, $118 million contract with Tennessee makes him the ninth highest paid QB in the NFL according to Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/quarterback/). They include Dak Prescott at the $31.5 million franchise tag amount in their calculations. Regardless of his position in the rankings, in Dynasty Owner salary terms, that’s $29.5 million a year for a QB who averaged 28.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in his 10 starts in 2019. That’s a little over $1 million ($1.036 million to be exact) on an average point per game basis, for the former backup who is owned in 65% of Dynasty Owner leagues. Unless they have better, less expensive players on their roster, Dynasty Owners with Tannehill will probably take the $27.5 million increase and hope he’s as good in 2020 as he was in 2019.  Of course, if you’re cap-strapped, like Super Bowl ticket winner Bruno, you might have to drop or trade Tannehill and find a cheaper QB for your team.
  • Amari Cooper (WR – DAL) – Depending on who you believe, Cooper’s new contract with the Cowboys is either for two years at $40 million with three team option years or five years at $100 million. Either way, it’s $20 million for Dynasty Owner salary cap purposes, or $14.3 million more than he was making in 2019. It makes Cooper, who was #9 WR in Dynasty Owner in 2019, the second highest paid WR in the NFL behind only Julio Jones (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/wide-receiver/). Overall, having Amari Cooper is a good thing, correct? Not exactly. If you examine his stats with Dallas closer, you’ll actually see that having Amari Cooper playing at home is worth his salary, but Amari Cooper on the road is not. In 13 home games with the Cowboys over the past two seasons, Cooper averages 23.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game, while in 12 road games, he averages only 9.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game.
    • At home, Cooper is worth his salary as if he played all 16 games at home last year at his career average as a Cowboy in Dallas, he would be the #1 WR in Dynasty Owner. His owners will pay $20 million for that!
    • If Cooper played all 16 games on the road, he would have been the #46 WR in Dynasty Owner (in 2019, that would have put him just ahead Marquise Brown and Danny Amendola, for reference, Amendola just signed a one year, $5 million contract to stay in Detroit) and sitting on your Bench most weeks. Totally not worth the $20 million contract!
  • Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC) – Ekeler’s new contract puts him barely in the top ten highest paid RBs according to Spotrac, just ahead of Duke Johnson (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/running-back/). It’s worth $24.5 million over 4 years ($6.125 million in Dynasty Owner salary terms), which is a $5.5 million increase over his $563,500 salary in 2019. Ekeler was the #4 RB in Dynasty Owner in 2019, which includes 12 games he played with Melvin Gordon. Even if the Chargers bring in another RB or draft a rookie to share time with Ekeler, he’s probably still going to be worth his new salary. He’s owned in 100% of Dynasty Owner leagues and that shouldn’t change at all, although Owners with a tight salary cap fit might consider trading him. Non-Ekeler Owners with salary cap room should make an offer and see if they can pry him away if the Ekeler Owner in your league is cap strapped.
  • Mason Crosby (K – GB) – Yes, a kicker made this list. Why? Because he re-signed with the Packers for 3 years at a total of $12.9 million, or $4.3 million per year in Dynasty Owner, making him the fourth highest paid kicker based on average salary (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/kicker/). His production though doesn’t live up to his salary as he was just the #11 kicker in Dynasty Owner in 2019 and that was a good year for Crosby as he only missed three kicks all season (2 FGs of over 40+ yards and 1 PAT). However, he only attempted two 50+ yard FGs all season, making one and missing one, and averaged just 6.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game (102.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in total). In 2018, Crosby missed more kicks (9 overall – 7 FGs and 2 PATs), but had 124.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to rank as the #8 kicker. While the Packers might value Crosby enough to pay him $4.3 million per year, his Dynasty Owners in the 80% of leagues in which he is owned shouldn’t do the same. Drop Crosby for no fee before the end of March and shed his $4.3 million salary from your team.
  • Kenyan Drake (RB – ARI) – The Arizona Cardinals put the transition tag on Drake meaning he is guaranteed at least a one year, $8.48 million contract for the 2020 season. Since they traded David Johnson to the Houston Texans (for DeAndre Hopkins – can you believe that?!?), Drake will likely be the top running back in Arizona. In eight games with Arizona in 2019, Drake averaged 20.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. In contrast, in seven games with the Dolphins, he only averaged 7.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. And Drake was a League Championship winner for many of his Dynasty Owners, with games of 41.6 and 35.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the 2019 Dynasty Owner playoffs. So, if his Dynasty Owners get the Arizona Drake again in 2020, they have the #2 RB behind only Christian McCaffrey. That’s worth the sixth highest RB contract in the NFL, according to Spotrac (see link to RB average salaries earlier in this article) and makes Drake worth keeping on your Dynasty Owner roster if you can afford the extra $7.64 million in salary.

Conclusions

Now that the new NFL league year has kicked in, free agents are officially signing new contracts. Some of these contract figures have already been posted on Dynasty Owner, while others will be coming starting on Monday, March 23rd. That will give Dynasty Owners a week to get their rosters up to at least 25 players, but not more than 30, and their team salaries under the $110 million salary cap.

On one hand, there are new contracts that Dynasty Owners are going to have to try and find room for on their roster unless they want to drop or trade the likes of Ryan Tannehill, Austin Ekeler or Kenyan Drake. Then, there is the one that might make some Dynasty Owners squeamish like Amari Cooper’s new $20 million contract that’s totally worth it for the home games, but not when Dallas is on the road. Finally, we have a contract that Dynasty Owners need to shed as soon as they can in Mason Crosby.

There’s lots more contract news to cover. An article about players who switched teams this off-season is coming soon to help summarize what’s happened so far in the NFL off-season. And don’t forget about all of the great Dynasty Owner specific podcasts, message board debates and Twitter posts.  All of this great content is available to help you win your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

Steven Van Tassell is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner.

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Dynasty Owner Amnesty Candidates – Part 4

Author: Steven Van Tassell

Happy start of the new NFL season and kick off Dynasty Owner Amnesty! That’s right, the 2020 Dynasty Owner amnesty period started yesterday Wednesday, March 18th. That means Dynasty Owners can start removing players on their current roster who aren’t worth the cost of their salary. This can be done free of charge!  All Dynasty Owners need to do is have at least 26 players on their roster (25 if bidding on a player when dropping) and keep their rosters at fewer than 30 players (and probably lower so you have room for rookies).

If this is your first Amnesty article, you are late to the party and need to go read the previous three articles – part 1 covering QBs and RBs and parts 2 and 3 covering WRs. There were a lot of overpaid and underproductive WRs so two articles were needed. If no players on your roster have been covered in the three previous articles, congratulations to you! Let’s hope you don’t have a TE or kicker mentioned in this fourth article as well.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth .25 points for every 10 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

Special in Philly, but Overpaid in Chicago

Trey Burton is most famous for the passing TD he threw to QB Nick Foles in the Eagles’ Super Bowl LII victory. He became a free agent after that game and signed a 4-year, $32 million contract with the Chicago Bears. Under Coach Matt Nagy who had previously been the Chiefs Offensive Coordinator, it was expected that Burton would turn into the next Travis Kelce. In 2018, Burton was good as he had 146.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and would have finished as the #8 TE overall. Burton only had 14 receptions for 84 yards in 8 games in 2019 (22.4 Dynasty Owner Fantasy Points) and was injured for most of the season. He underwent hip surgery but is expected to be ready for the 2020 season.

However, the question for his Dynasty Owner is, “Do you want him back on your 2020 Dynasty Owner roster at $8 million for two more years?” The quarterback situation in Chicago is murky with Mitchell Trubisky as the incumbent and the Bears are going to sign free agent Jimmy Graham (it’s all about the U).

Even though Graham is older than Burton by a few years and wasn’t super productive in 2019 with just 99.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points over the entire season, just signing him indicates the Bears’ dissatisfaction with Burton. Even if Burton emerges as the starter next year, what role will he play in the Bears’ offense in 2020? He will likely be the fourth or fifth option behind Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Tarik Cohen and David Montgomery. If you are one of the Dynasty Owners in 72% of leagues with Burton on your roster, use the free pass given to Dynasty Owners. Unload Burton’s big contract and find a cheaper TE in your Dynasty Owner league Free Agency Auction.

Possible TE Replacements to Target After Releasing Burton

If you need a starting TE after releasing Trey Burton (or another TE), here are some replacements available in over 70 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues:

  • Ryan Griffin of the Jets is only owned in 24% of Dynasty Owner leagues right now. Before his season ending injury, he had 98.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 13 games – an average of 7.5 per game. While the average isn’t great, he did have two games with over 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points – an indication that he can be a top TE. Griffin’s salary is higher than a lot of other available TEs, but is still a reasonable $3.6 million per year for the next three years, a savings of $4.4 million in 2020 versus sticking with Trey Burton. He will have competition from fellow TE Chris Herndon (who is likely not available in your league since he’s rostered in 89% of Dynasty Owner leagues), but other teams have supported two good TEs, like the Ravens last year. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that both Griffin and Herndon can be productive Dynasty Owner players in 2020, so go grab Griffin if you need a TE.
  • With DeAndre Hopkins on his way out of Houston, somebody is going to have to step up and catch more passes from Deshaun Watson in 2020 for the Texans. Why not one of the two Houston TEs – Darren Fells or Jordan Akins?  Fells is older (he turns 34 in April) and more expensive ($3.5 million per year after signing a new 2-year, $7 million deal), but was more productive in 2019 with 110.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to rank as the #16 TE over the course of the entire 16-game season. However, he was TD dependent as he had 7 TDs. On the other hand, Akins is younger (he turns 28 in April) and cheaper ($831,271 salary for the next two years). He was just the #25 TE in 2019 with 89.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (only 20.3 points less than Fells or 1.3 points per game). Akins had more targets (55 to 48 for Fells), two more catches in 2019 (36 vs. 34 for Fells) and more receiving yards (418 yards vs. 341 for Fells) so it really was the TDs that made Fells more valuable. Both are owned in less than 50% of Dynasty Owner leagues (37% for Fells and 20% for Akins), so either one of them can be a productive replacement for Burton (or another high priced TE). Unless Bill O’Brien goes out and does something wacky like signing Antonio Gates (just kidding, but don’t put it past O’Brien to do something else bizarre).

Other Tight Ends Who Deserve to be Released

There are a few TEs owned in less than 50 percent of Dynasty Owner league who also deserve to be sent packing now if you are a Dynasty Owner who has one of these guys on your roster:

  • This one pains me to put here about a fellow alumnus of the University of Miami, but I don’t think Greg Olsen is worth $7 million of Dynasty Owner salary cap room in 2020. Olsen signed a one year, $7 million contract with the Seattle Seahawks back in mid-February that is valid for the 2020 Dynasty Owner season. Despite missing the two games with an injury and playing most of the season with backup QBs in Kyle Allen and Will Grier, Olsen was the 13th best TE in Dynasty Owner in 2019. However, he only averaged 8.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game with three explosive games mixed in (25.5, 17.8 and 17.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). In half of his 2019 games, he scored 7.0 or fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points, meaning he was at best a Bench option for half of the season. While he’ll have a much better QB in Russell Wilson throwing him the ball in 2020, he’ll also be competing for playing time with two other quality TEs in Will Dissly and Jacob Hollister and catches with those two plus Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. That’s a lot of players who want the ball in Seattle and makes Olsen not worth $7 million of your Dynasty Owner salary cap. Olsen is rostered in 37% of Dynasty Owner leagues currently and that percentage should drop now.
  • At $9 million per year, Kyle Rudolph is the currently listed on Spotrac (check them out at https://www.spotrac.com/) as the fourth high-paid TE in the NFL, behind Hunter Henry, free agent signee Austin Hooper, and Travis Kelce. Let’s compare Rudolph to Kelce since they have similar salaries. Kelce was the #1 TE in Dynasty Owner last year and earned his nearly $9.4 million salary, scoring 253.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, or an average of 15.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Rudolph, on the other hand, was less than half as productive as Kelce. He only scored an average of 7.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game (113.7 for the season) and finished as the #14 TE over the entire season. That’s Bench TE production for Travis Kelce money. Rudolph isn’t highly owned, only owned in 26% of Dynasty Owner league, but if you are among the Dynasty Owners with Rudolph on your roster, use amnesty on him.
  • Cameron Brate is the more expensive of the two TEs in Tampa Bay who weren’t thrown the ball much this past season. He was the #24 TE in Dynasty Owner in 2019, but carries an annual salary of $6.8 million for four more years. That’s right – 4 more years! Get rid of him using your amnesty unless you are a Brate Dynasty Owner (all 9% of you) who thinks the G.O.A.T. Tom Brady is going to resurrect Brate’s career in Tampa Bay (assuming Brady signs with the Buccaneers, I’m holding out hope that it doesn’t happen and will continue to do so until pen is put to paper on a contract). Even with Brady at QB, Brate is still probably the fourth option in Bruce Arians’ offense and still is not going to see more targets than Mike Evans, Chris Godwin or even O.J. Howard. Time to get rid of Brate’s contract and grab a cheaper, more productive TE.

Kick These Guys Off Your Roster

There are six kickers definitely worth of releasing immediately due to their high salaries (with multiple years left on their contracts) and lack of productivity in 2019. Four of them are widely owned (more than 70% ownership in Dynasty Owner leagues) and finished outside of the top 10 kickers in 2019, basically making them your Dynasty Owner Bench kicker. Each will make several million dollars in 2020, far too expensive for a Bench player when you only have a $110 million salary cap. Dynasty Owners would be better off grabbing a kicker earning less than $1 million and saving a couple of million dollars in salary cap room that they can better use.

  • Jake Elliott of the Philadelphia Eagles is currently owned in 96% of Dynasty Owner leagues and carries a $3.86 million salary for five more years. That salary is currently the 13th highest for a kicker, but Elliott finished the 2019 Dynasty Owner season as the #20 kicker. He only missed six kicks overall in 2019 (4 FGs – all over 40 yards – and 2 PATs), it was just that he didn’t get enough chances and only scored 85.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (5.3 points per game) with only two games over 10 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
  • Robbie Gould was slightly better than Elliott overall as the #19 kicker with 86.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. However, in fairness, he did miss three games with an injury and averaged 6.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Even if he played all 16 games at that level of production, he would have still only been the #9 kicker in 2019. That’s not good enough for the second highest paid kicker with a $4.75 million salary for three more years. Paying $4.75 million for barely a Top 10 kicker isn’t advised so Dynasty Owners should drop Gould free of charge while they have the opportunity.
  • Mason Crosby just got paid by the Green Bay Packers, signing a new 3 year, $12.9 million contract. That makes him the fourth highest paid kicker in the NFL right now. Should Dynasty Owners keep Crosby on their roster with this new contract? The answer is No. The explanation is that while Crosby was the #11 kicker in Dynasty Owner in 2019, he only averaged 6.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game (102.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for the 16-game NFL season) with only two games of more than over 10 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Crosby’s ownership should drop significantly from his current level of 80%.
  • As the twelfth highest paid kicker in the NFL right now at $3.86 million for three more years, Jason Myers barely makes our list since he was the #14 kicker in Dynasty Owner in 2019. On the positive side, he did have three games with 10.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2019. However, he only had a total of 92.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points all season, an average of just 5.75 points per game. Myers is currently owned in three-quarters (74%) of Dynasty Owner leagues. Check the Free Agent Auction and grab a cheaper kicker if one is available, then drop Myers.

Finally, we have two kickers who are owned in less than 50 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues but should be dropped by their Dynasty Owners as well:

  • Because he kicks on the terrible turf at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Chris Boswell has lower fantasy ownership than some other kickers. He didn’t get many scoring chances in 2019, probably due to the Ben Roethlisberger injury. Therefore, he might improve on his standing as the #10 kicker in Dynasty Owner in the upcoming season. He only missed two kicks in 2019 (both FGs over 40 yards) and even with more attempts in 2020, is he going to be as accurate? His contract is $4.2 million for the next three seasons, so if you can find a cheaper kicker with roughly the same production in your league Free Agent Auction, you should drop Boswell and save a few million dollars in salary cap space.
  • Even though he didn’t kick at all in 2019, Graham Gano is still owned in 35% of Dynasty Owner leagues at his $4.25 million salary for two more years. That makes him the fifth highest paid kicker in the NFL right now. If you think Gano is going to come back from injury and be a top five Dynasty Owner kicker in 2020, then keep him on your roster. If not, then it’s time to drop Gano and find another Dynasty Owner kicker.

Conclusions

We’ve covered every position now and many of the players who Dynasty Owners might want to use the amnesty provision on. With the announcement by Dynasty Owner Tim of unlimited amnesty for Dynasty Owners through the end of March, there may be additional players to consider since Dynasty Owners are not limited in the number of players they can release free of charge (as long as you have at least 26 players on your Dynasty Owner roster).

At TE, Trey Burton is the top target because of his $8 million salary, which is tied for sixth highest for a TE with new teammate Jimmy Graham, and likely status as the fifth option in the Bears 2020 offense. There are more “high-priced” kickers that Dynasty Owners should drop because they didn’t perform up to the level of their contract in 2019. Dynasty Owners with one of the six kickers listed in this article on their roster could save a couple of million dollars in valuable salary cap room by smartly taking advantage of the free dropping, amnesty provision for the 2020 season.

Now that the new NFL league year has kicked in, it’s time for Free Agents to officially start signing new contracts. There’s lots to cover so don’t forget about all of the great Dynasty Owner specific articles, podcasts, message board debates and Twitter posts to help you start getting ready for the 2020 Dynasty Owner season!

Steven Van Tassell is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner.

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Dynasty Owner Amnesty Candidates – Part 2

Author: Steven Van Tassell

The 2020 Dynasty Owner amnesty period is coming soon (official date TBD), so Dynasty Owners better start thinking about what players on their current roster aren’t worth the cost of their salary and should be removed free of charge.

Originally, this was going to be a single amnesty article, then I realized that there were plenty of QBs and RBs who Dynasty Owners could use amnesty on, so I broke it up into two articles. We looked at QBs and RBs in our first amnesty article and now it’s time to look at receivers.

However, there are so many WRs who Dynasty Owners could use an amnesty provision on, that one article on just WRs isn’t going to be sufficient, so now it’ll be two. Similar to the QBs and RBs article, all of the WRs and TEs highlighted are owned in 50 percent or more of Dynasty Owner leagues and should be considered prime candidates for amnesty.

There are a lot of receivers with salaries of $10 million or more who didn’t earn their big paycheck in 2019. Some of those players might be released in the coming days and weeks, but others will stick with their NFL teams through the 2020 season and maybe beyond. Many of them should be dropped by their Dynasty Owners using the amnesty provision. If you made a mistake by drafting one of these guys in 2019, don’t make the same mistake twice and fail to use the amnesty provision on that guy in 2020. Unless of course, you have other, more expensive amnesty candidates, like a high-priced QB or RB with arthritic knees, on your Dynasty Owner roster.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth .25 points for every 10 yards.

Brandin Is Not Cooking with Gas

Cooking with gas is one of my mom’s favorite expressions and she taught it to my son who uses it all the time to describe when someone is doing a good job. He would definitely say that Brandin Cooks was not cooking with gas in 2019. After being drafted as ADP 86 in Dynasty Owner leagues, Cooks finished the season as the 63rd best WR (not player, but WR) in 2019. He did miss two full games with an injury, but didn’t perform up to his salary standing before he got injured either.

He averaged a respectable 13.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game for the first quarter of the season (4 games), making him a fringe starting WR. From there on, Cooks only averaged 6.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in his final 10 games (aka, a Practice Squad player). It’s possible that Cooks regains his 2018 form, but even then, he was just the 13th best Dynasty Owner WR – a solid #2 WR for his Dynasty Owners. Cooks is almost universally rostered in Dynasty Owner at 96%, so plenty of Dynasty Owners have this decision to make. Considering that he is currently the sixth highest paid WR and has 4 more years left on his contract at $16.2 million per year, anything else than being the best WR on your Dynasty Owner team is not worth the salary. The Rams could release him and take the salary cap hit, but that’s unlikely, and there’s probably not a trade market for him either. Therefore, he’ll likely stay on the Rams and be the fourth option in the Rams 2020 passing game behind Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee and Robert Woods. Fourth option for $16.2 million until 2023 is not what Dynasty Owners need from someone who occupies almost 15% of their $110 million salary cap. Dynasty Owners with Cooks on their roster owe Paul and Tim a big “Thank you” for the amnesty provision and should use it on Cooks.

Week 1 Sensation and Super Bowl Champion to Amnesty Candidate

It’s been quite a few months for Sammy Watkins. He was the second-best player in Dynasty Owner in Week 1, when he had 46.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (9 receptions, 198 yards receiving, 3 receiving TDs), second only to Dallas QB Dak Prescott. Just recently, he won the Super Bowl and contributed 5 catches for 98 yards in the game after having a productive playoff game against the Texans and a monster 7 reception, 114 yards receiving, 1 receiving TD game in the AFC Championship game against the Titans.

However, in between Week 1 and the playoffs, Watkins did next to nothing for his fantasy owners. After the first week, Watkins was not even a starting Dynasty Owner WR as he only scored 73.2 more Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the last 13 games of the Dynasty Owner regular season. He only had more than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points four additional times after his Week 1 performance with no touchdowns and a high game of 13.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

Because of his playoff performance, he might not get released by the Chiefs, but have his contract reworked, making him the second “best” WR candidate for Dynasty Owner amnesty. Even if his contract is restructured, he might still be too expensive to keep. If it stays as is, Watkins’ Dynasty Owners will be spending $16 million per year for the next two years for a player who was the #54 ranked WR and isn’t even the top WR on his team.

Or, his performance in the playoffs could be a harbinger of things to come in the regular season and if the Chiefs agree, it’s very possible that they keep him around. This would leave his Dynasty Owners with the decision of whether to use the amnesty provision on him or not. If you are one of the Dynasty Owners in 59% of leagues that Watkins is rostered in, it’s not a hard decision. Use it and find better and cheaper WRs available in the Free Agent Auction.

It’s Finally Time to Give Up on Corey Davis

The long-teased Corey Davis breakout season has never come to pass for the Tennessee Titans or Davis’ fantasy owners. In 2017, he was a rookie and got a pass, then he had a good 2018 season with 183.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and would have been the #28 ranked WR in Dynasty Owner. That’s a top Bench player, bye week and injury replacement for his Dynasty Owners. He was supposed to have a breakout in his third season, but 2019 was a severe regression in fantasy value for Davis with the emergence of A.J. Brown as the top WR in Tennessee.

In 2019, Davis had two games with 20.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He played in 13 more games and failed to score double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points in any of them. That’s right – none of them. He ended up as the #65 overall WR in Dynasty Owner in 2019 which puts him barely on Dynasty Owner Practice Squads.

There are plenty of rookie WRs who will earn less than Davis and some other WRs who Dynasty Owner can stash on their Practice Squad for less than his $6.35 million salary. His Dynasty Owners might have to pay that salary in 2021 as well, so be at the forefront of the Drop Corey Davis movement and use the amnesty provision on him.

Possible WR Replacements to Target After Releasing Burton

So, it’s amnesty time and you need another WR after releasing Cooks, Watkins or Davis, here are two quality replacements available in nearly 90 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues:

  • Cole Beasley of the Buffalo Bills is a money-saving option if you release Cooks or Watkins as his salary is $7.25 million for three more years. While that’s a pretty high salary, it’s still close to $9 million less than either Cooks or Watkins. Beasley is only owned in 11% of Dynasty Owner leagues but was the #33 WR overall last year. Beasley was a consistent performer week in and week out for his few Dynasty Owners with double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 9 out of the 13 weeks he played in the Dynasty Owner regular season – as many as Cooks, Watkins and Davis combined. You read that correctly – combined!
  • Steven Sims Jr. was mentioned a few weeks ago in the article about Widely Available Players to Own (https://dynastyowner.com/2020/02/available-players-2020/). Go read it for the full explanation on why he should be on your Dynasty Owner team instead of Cooks, Watkins or Davis. Here are the Cliffs Notes version if you don’t want to read some quality writing – $590,000 salary for two more years and averaged 20.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game over the last three weeks of the season. His ownership has “skyrocketed” to 13% from 6.5% when the Players to Own article was published. It appears that a couple of Dynasty Owners actually read the article and agreed with me enough to go get him, or simply did the research and figured it out on their own. Either way, come and join the Sims for Dynasty Owner roster movement now!

Conclusions

Just like at QB and RB, there is no shortage of prime WR candidates for Dynasty Owner salary amnesty. In fact, there are so many WRs that there will be another article with more WRs who should be sent packing coming soon. Dynasty Owners with one of the WRs listed in this article on their roster can save several millions of dollars in valuable salary cap room by smartly taking advantage of this provision for the 2020 season.

What happens if you have more than one of them on your Dynasty Owner roster? It’s possible as a team in my Dynasty Owner league has all three! Out of the WRs mentioned, Brandin Cooks would be the first to go if I was that guy (thankfully, I’m not), followed by Sammy Watkins. Both of them have $16 million salaries, aren’t even the best WR on their NFL teams and need to go from your Dynasty Owner team as soon as the amnesty date is announced. So does Corey Davis as he’s been eclipsed by A.J. Brown as the #1 WR in Tennessee and has yet to earn his $6.35 million salary.

Look for Part 3 in the Dynasty Owner amnesty article series with a big-name, surprise WR listed to be posted soon. And don’t forget all of the great Dynasty Owner specific articles, podcasts, message board debates and Twitter posts to help you start getting ready for the 2020 Dynasty Owner season!

Steven Van Tassell is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Dynasty Owner Amnesty Candidates – Part 1 (QBs and RBs)

Author: Steven Van Tassell

With the announcement of an amnesty provision for the 2020 Dynasty Owner season, Dynasty Owners should start thinking about what players on their current roster aren’t worth the cost of their salary and should be removed free of charge. The introduction of an amnesty provision for 2020 is important as some owners will be trying to fit under the $110 million salary cap for 2020 after possibly going as high as $120 million with their 2019 salaries.

There are a lot of players with big salaries in the NFL and some of those players will likely be released in the coming days and weeks. However, many high salary players might not be released, and that salary could still be sitting on your Dynasty Owner roster for 2020 and taking up valuable salary cap room. Room that Dynasty Owners could use to improve their team or pay for salary increases for better players.

There are plenty of “worthy” candidates for amnesty so we’re going to break it up. First, we will cover backs (QBs and RBs) who are owned in 50 percent or more of Dynasty Owner leagues and should be considered candidates for amnesty. The second article will cover receivers (WRs and TEs) using the same criteria.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth .25 points for every 10 yards.

Aaron Rodgers Is a Prime Amnesty Candidate

Aaron Rodgers and his $33.5 million salary for the next three seasons is the top choice for a QB to use the amnesty provision on. The argument for getting rid of Rodgers is pretty simple. Are his Dynasty Owners getting $33.5 million worth of production from Rodgers or not? Rodgers was the highest salaried player in Dynasty Owner in 2019 and is tied for third highest right now with Jared Goff, only trailing Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger.  At $33.5 million, he’s taking up over 30% of your $110 million Dynasty Owner salary cap. Rodgers is rostered in 57% of Dynasty Owners, which is high based on his hefty salary.

In terms of production, Rodgers was the seventh best QB for the entire 2019 NFL season and ninth overall best player. Is he going to improve in 2020 at age 36 in the second year in Coach Matt LaFleur’s offense? If the answer is Yes!, then read no further. However, more likely than not, he isn’t going to be better than most of the six QBs who finished ahead of him in 2019 (Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes). And who knows if he plays well enough to stay in the Top 10 in 2020.

Rodgers was also very streaky in 2019. He scored 62.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 7 vs. Oakland, but for the entire season, he only scored 20.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 5 out of 14 Dynasty Owner regular season games. This is down from scoring that many points in 9 out of 14 Dynasty Owner regular season games in 2018.  He also didn’t clear the 20.0 mark in either Dynasty Owner playoff game in 2019. Dynasty Owners can’t afford to have their #1 QB who takes up 30% of their salary cap scoring less than 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in over half of his games.

If you have Rodgers on your roster as your #1 QB, you’re probably reading this and saying, “That’s fine, but who am I going to get to replace Rodgers as my starting QB if I drop him?” Great question!

For $5.5 million less, Dynasty Owners with Rodgers could pick up Kirk Cousins, who is owned in only 4% of Dynasty Owner leagues and was ranked as the 15th best QB for the entire NFL season. Cousins only scored a total of 19.5 fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points over the course of the 14-game Dynasty Owner regular season than Rodgers, an average of just 1.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Despite a poor start to the 2019 season, Cousins had more games of 20.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than Rodgers (7 for Cousins vs. 5 for Rodgers). He may not be as big of a name as Rodgers (or have as many commercials), but Cousins could be a viable replacement for Rodgers in 2020.

Can Dynasty Owners Count on Cam in 2020?

That’s the question for Dynasty Owners with Cam Newton on their roster. A surprisingly high 80% of Dynasty Owner leagues have an owner with Newton and his $20.76 million salary on their roster. While it’s possible that Newton gets released in the off-season, it’s also possible that the Panthers keep him around for another season. After an injury plagued 2019 in which he didn’t look like the Cam Newton who electrified the NFL a few years ago, can Dynasty Owners afford to keep paying him nearly one-fifth of their entire team’s salary?

Even though his $20.76 million salary is only for one more year and he’s just the 16th highest paid QB in the league, Dynasty Owners can do better. If they have some salary cap room, Cousins is a possible replacement, they could draft a QB in this year’s rookie draft or look at the available QBs in their league’s Free Agent Auction.

Lesser Owned Quarterbacks Who Deserve to be Released

There are also a couple of additional lesser owned QBs who also deserve to be sent packing using the amnesty provision if you are a Dynasty Owner who still has one of these guys on your roster:

  • Ben Roethlisberger is currently the QB with the second highest salary in Dynasty Owner at $34 million and 35% ownership. Since Big Ben was hurt for all but two games in 2019 and will be 38 years old in March, his Dynasty Owners probably have another quality QB on the roster. If not, then pick up Cousins or wait and draft Joe Burrow, but whatever you decide to do, shedding Ben’s $34 million contract should be at the top of your off-season To Do list.
  • Nick Foles might be a $22 million backup in 2020 if he doesn’t beat out Gardner Minshew II for the QB job in Jacksonville. That’s way, way too much salary to spend on a potential backup who still has three more years left on his contract and probably isn’t getting released by the Jaguars in the off-season. Foles is rostered in only 6.5% of Dynasty Owner leagues and if you’re one of those Dynasty Owners, I’d use the amnesty provision on him and move on.

Release These #2 RBs Who Will Make More Than All but One RB in 2020

There are two highly paid RBs whose performance in 2019 ranked them as #2 RBs for their Dynasty Owner team. Both of them did not come near their salary ranking (second and third among RBs) and should be released by their Dynasty Owners. Both finished 14 spots worse in the Dynasty Owner season positional rankings compared to their salary ranking and are probably not getting released by their NFL teams anytime soon. Therefore, their Dynasty Owners will have to use the amnesty provision to unburden themselves of their high salaries.

  • Barring a huge salary being signed by Derrick Henry or another free agent RB, Todd Gurley will be the second highest paid RB in Dynasty Owner in 2020. His $14.375 million salary is on the books for three more years, taking up precious salary cap room for his Dynasty Owners. In terms of production, Gurley was ranked as the #16 RB in Dynasty Owner for the entire season, meaning he’s a #2 RB for his Dynasty Owner’s team. In 2019, he had just as many games with less than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points as more than 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (3 each). The good news is that he produced consistently all season, the bad news is that this production is what you expect from the #2 RB on your team, not the second highest paid RB. He is owned in almost all Dynasty Owner leagues (98%) and his Dynasty Owners should strongly consider releasing him with the amnesty provision. And don’t forget that he also has arthritis in his left knee!
  • Le’Veon Bell was right behind Gurley in terms of salary (third highest for 2020 at $13.125 million for two more years) and production (ranked as the #17 RB in Dynasty Owner in 2019). The Jets might try to trade him, but because his contract for 2020 is fully guaranteed, they are highly unlikely to release him and allow his Dynasty Owners to walk away from that contract. That’s why Dynasty Owners with Bell on their current roster need to use the amnesty provision on him. Similar to Gurley, Bell also had as many games with 20.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy point games as he did games with 10.0 or fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points (two each). Like Gurley, that’s #2 RB production for your Dynasty Owner team and not worthy of the third highest RB salary that takes up almost 12% of your entire $110 million salary cap.

To Amnesty or Not to Amnesty, That is the Question

David Johnson of the Arizona Cardinals is another amnesty candidate because of his $13 million salary for 2020 (fourth highest among RBs) and poor performance at the end of the 2019 season. The Cardinals effectively turned the RB position over to Kenyan Drake after he was acquired mid-season from the Miami Dolphins, ending Johnson’s tenure as the team’s top running back. Even so, the Cardinals say they plan on keeping him for the 2020 season.

In the first six games of the 2019 season, Johnson was earning his place as ADP 54 and his Dynasty Owners were getting themselves an average of 20.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. After that, he managed to carry the ball only 18 times for 47 yards (2.6 yards per carry) and catch only 6 passes for 55 more yards and a TD – a total of just 19.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for the entire rest of the season.

The end of the year performance isn’t going to earn him his release by the Cardinals, even though Drake is a free agent. There are trade rumors about Johnson as well, which wouldn’t remove his contract from your Dynasty Owner team, but might help him better earn his $13 million salary and make him less of an amnesty candidate than if he stays with the Cardinals and they re-sign Drake. That’s why there is a question about whether or not to use the amnesty provision on Johnson.

I’ll Take Pass Catching RBs With One Year Left on Their Contracts for $5 Million, Alex

Answer: Dion Lewis and Duke Johnson

Question: Who are two primarily passing catching RBs Dynasty Owners might want to use their amnesty provision on?

First, we’ll talk about Duke Johnson who is owned in 95% of Dynasty Owner leagues and has a $5.2 million salary for 2020. Duke was the #30 RB in Dynasty Owner for 2020 and only produced six Dynasty Owner regular season games with more than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. As the #30 overall RB, he slots as a fringe starter and bye week or injury replacement for his Dynasty Owners. That’s a lot for $5.2 million. It’s possible that he ends up as the top RB in Houston since both Carlos Hyde and Lamar Miller are free agents, but even if that’s the case, is he worth $5.2 million of your salary cap?

Second, we have Dion Lewis and his $4.95 million salary for 2020. Lewis is rostered in 63% of Dynasty Owner leagues, but produced only 65.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (4.1 per game) playing behind Derrick Henry, who is a free agent. It’s doubtful that the Titans will make him the lead back, but it’s also possible that they don’t release him and his big contract before Dynasty Owners can amnesty a player. If he’s still on the Titans roster and your Dynasty Owner roster, he’s a great amnesty candidate and you can use it wisely to save you nearly $5 million.

Lesser Owned Running Backs Who Deserve to be Released

There are also a couple of additional lesser owned RBs who also deserve to be sent packing using the amnesty provision if you are a Dynasty Owner who still has one of these guys on your roster:

  • Giovani Bernard is stuck behind Joe Mixon on the Bengals depth chart and was the #64 RB in Dynasty Owner in 2020. His Dynasty Owners could keep Bernard around and hope that he gets released during the off-season or keep him into the 2020 season if he stays in Cincinnati in case Mixon gets injured. However, his salary cap hit is $4.85 million and that’s a lot of money for a backup RB, never mind the Bengals backup RB. If Bernard survives the off-season without being released, the Dynasty Owners who have him in 30% of Dynasty Owner leagues need to shed his salary by using the amnesty provision.
  • In case you forgot, Jerick McKinnon is currently the seventh highest paid RB in Dynasty Owner at $7.5 million, just behind Saquon Barkley and just ahead of Leonard Fournette. He was surprisingly selected by Dynasty Owners in 11% of leagues in 2019 even though he didn’t play at all in 2018. With Raheem Mostert under contract until 2021 and looking like the top RB in San Francisco, McKinnon will likely be battling to be a backup, if he’s not released by the 49ers. If the 49ers hang on to McKinnon, then his Dynasty Owners should use their amnesty provision on him and find healthier, cheaper RBs for their squad.

Conclusions

There is no shortage of backs, both QBs and RBs, who are prime candidates for Dynasty Owner salary amnesty. Dynasty Owners with one of these players on their roster could save several millions of dollars in valuable salary cap room by smartly taking advantage of this provision for the 2020 season. Aaron Rodgers, Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell top my personal list of players who should be considered prime targets for the amnesty provision, but there are plenty of others out there as well who are owned in 50% or more of Dynasty Owner leagues and likely not being released by their NFL team.

Part 2 covering receivers (WRs and TEs) who are prime amnesty candidates is coming soon. And there’s more great Dynasty Owner specific content coming on a regular basis during the Dynasty Owner “off-season” between articles, podcasts and Twitter. Thanks for reading and go start getting ready for the 2020 Dynasty Owner season!

Steven Van Tassell is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner.

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Widely Available Players to Own for the 2020 Dynasty Owner Season

Author: Steven Van Tassell

The 2019 NFL season is over as the Super Bowl concluded with someone other than the New England Patriots winning. Congratulations to the Kansas City Chiefs on winning for their first title in 50 years!

Now that we’ve turned the clock on the 2019 season, it’s time to start thinking about 2020. Unfortunately, most of the off-season action won’t start for a while as free agents can’t sign with new teams until March 18th. However, between now and then, there are some things that Dynasty Owners can do to try and improve their teams.

The announcement of the increase in roster spots from 24 to 30 and the institution of a hard salary cap of just $110 million for the 2020 Dynasty Owner season instead of the system in place for the inaugural season is an opportunity for Dynasty Owners. Owners can take a look at their teams now and see what players are available in the Free Agent Auction before NFL free agency starts. To help out, let’s take a look at some widely available and inexpensive Dynasty Owner Free Agents who really should be rostered in 2020.

These players are rostered in 50 percent or less of Dynasty Owner leagues at the time of publication. They are also signed for at least 2020 and in many cases, beyond that. No NFL free agents here – just players you can grab now and keep for 2020 with little impact on your salary cap.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth .25 points for every 10 yards. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

No Good Options at Quarterback

There aren’t any QBs worth mentioning who fit our criteria. Both of the truly low cost QBs who played significant time in 2019 (Ryan Finley and David Blough) are highly unlikely to be starting in 2020. Blough started five games for the Lions at the end of the season, averaging just 13.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Despite starting five games and costing only $591,667 per year for the next three years, no Dynasty Owners took the opportunity to put Blough on their rosters. Ryan Finley was even worse with just an average of 9.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in his three starts for the Bengals. However, a few Dynasty Owners took a chance on Finley and his $827,414 salary, as he is currently owned in 17% of leagues. That ownership percentage is likely to drop as the Bengals should draft Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow with the first pick in the NFL draft in April and name him the starter for 2020.

The two QBs who are possible 2020 starters at a low salary (Drew Lock and Gardner Minshew) both don’t fit our criteria since they are rostered in far more than 50 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues. Drew Lock was the starter at the end of 2019 in Denver and costs only $1.75 million per year for the next three years. However, he is rostered in 74% of Dynasty Owner leagues right now. Gardner Minshew might be the starter in Jacksonville next year and even if he’s not, he’s worth a roster spot. Minshew is owed in 80% of Dynasty Owner leagues at a salary of just $677,721 for three more years. If you are a league in which Lock or Minshew isn’t owned, go grab either one (or both of them) before it’s too late.

Running Back – Myles Gaskin (MIA)

It’s tough to find a low salary, widely available RB in Dynasty Owner. Several top RBs come with low salaries under $1 million, such as Aaron Jones, Chris Carson and Alvin Kamara, but all of them, not surprisingly, are rostered in 100% of leagues.

Out of all of the options, Myles Gaskin of the Dolphins stands out as the best. He’s very widely available as he’s only owned in 2% of Dynasty Owner leagues and carries a low $651,694 salary for three more years. Despite starting off the 2019 season as the #5 RB in Miami, he outlasted Kenyan Drake (traded), Kalen Ballage (injured) and Mark Walton (suspended then released) before getting injured himself. He also outplayed Patrick Laird in the two games in which they shared the backfield load (22.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for Gaskin vs. 10.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for Laird). Laird also fits the criteria as well ($588,000 salary for one more year, only owned in 13% of Dynasty Owner leagues), but Gaskin is the choice here if you really feel like you need another RB and can’t afford any of the top rookies coming in the draft.

Wide Receiver – Steven Sims Jr. (WAS)

There are several WRs who fit our criteria and might be worthy of a spot on your Dynasty Owner roster with the best choice being Redskins WR Steven Sims Jr. The undrafted rookie from Kansas ended up being pretty much the Redskins #2 WR by the end of the 2019 season behind Terry McLaurin. Overall, he scored 127.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and ranked as the #57 WR for the season. However, the overall total masks the fact that he averaged 20.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game over the last three weeks of the season.

For the entire 2019 season, Sims was a dangerous return man, ranking second in kickoff return yards and fourth in overall return yards. He also scored a return TD this season. His return points alone were worth 25.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2019.

Sims is only owned in 6.5% of Dynasty Owner leagues and in terms of salary, he’s a bargain for the next two years at only $590,000 per year. If his production continues to improve, he could be a Tyreek Hill type player. Pick him up now and stash him for 2020 and 2021.

Wide Receiver – Russell Gage (ATL)

Another WR who fits our criteria is Russell Gage of the Falcons. Gage really came on in the second half of the season after the Falcons traded Mohamed Sanu to New England, averaging 10.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in the last nine games of the season. Gage will likely be the #3 WR in Atlanta in 2020 and if the Falcons don’t resign unrestricted free agent TE Austin Hooper, he’ll be the third option in a potent Falcons pass offense.

He also has the ability to step up if Julio Jones or Calvin Ridley are out as he averaged 10.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the final three games of the 2019 season without Ridley in the lineup and scored 16.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against New Orleans in Week 13 when Jones was inactive. All of this production is only rostered in 11% of Dynasty Owner leagues and will only cost Dynasty Owners $654,049 for the next two years.

Tight End – Foster Moreau (OAK/LV)

Raiders TE Foster Moreau is the top TE who fits our criteria. He’ll battle with fellow TE Derek Carrier to be the backup TE behind Darren Waller in Las Vegas in 2020. Is it too soon, or can we officially call them the Las Vegas Raiders now? 

Either way, Moreau was fairly productive as a rookie in 2019, scoring 68.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and being a Top 40 TE. Admittedly, he was touchdown dependent as he scored five of them (second on the team behind Tyrell Williams who had six), but that appears to be something consistent in the Raiders’ offense under Coach Jon Gruden as their backup TEs in 2018 accounted for 4 TDs.

He stands to be as or more productive in 2020 for only $751,633 for the next three years. Sure, he’ll be the backup to Darren Waller, but several teams had two productive fantasy TEs in 2019 (Indianapolis with Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle comes to mind first and Baltimore has three productive TEs in Mark Andrews, Hayden Hurst and Nick Boyle). There’s also no reason to believe Gruden can’t figure out a way to incorporate Moreau more into the Raiders offense in 2020. Grabbing him now to see if that pans out is a good move as he’s only owned in 13% of Dynasty Owner leagues at the moment.

Conclusions

Do you have salary cap room and roster space on your Dynasty Owner team? Looking to fill a roster spot or two with an affordable player who could produce for your team in 2020? If you said Yes to either of these questions, then go look at the available players in your league. You’re most likely to find an asset for the 2020 Dynasty Owner season at WR or TE.

Out of all of the players discussed, Steven Sims Jr. appears to be the best bet to produce for your team in 2020 based on his end of the year performance in 2019. Hopefully you read this article before anyone else in your league and get to the Free Agent Auction to put in a bid for him or one of the other players mentioned.

There’s more content to come on a regular basis during the Dynasty Owner “off-season” between articles, podcasts and Twitter. Thanks for reading and go start getting ready for the 2020 Dynasty Owner season!

Steven Van Tassell is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner.

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner