Dynasty Owner’s 2020 Midseason Awards

Author: Jay Poundsee (@JayPoundsNFL)

I know many of you myself included are amazed that the midway point has come and gone, but even with the season flying tradition still stands strong. The midseason awards we see from every sports outlet possible are finally here on Dynasty Owner and have been determined below, but beware, some awards are not awards you would want to win.

This is an article I want to have a little fun with for you, while still including some key stats and salaries as well. I have thoroughly enjoyed being able to write articles and help on the podcast here on Dynasty Owner. It truly has been a great experience and opportunity and I cannot thank Tim, Don, and the rest of the guys enough for all their hard work! I also cannot begin to thank you guys enough for helping Dynasty Owner grow the way you have; you all really are amazing!

I am not too sure if it’s the whole no preseason or just the pure excitement that we actually have a football season this year that is making Sundays seem faster than DK Metcalf after a Seahawks interception, but as we have all said many of times at least we have football in 2020. The NFL honestly deserves to be handed one of these awards with the job they have been able to do thus far containing COVID-19 and making this season a success, up to this point at least.

The fact they have executed this so well without a bubble while teams are traveling all over the country and even hosting fans in some venues has been a very refreshing site to see. We have seen so many interesting things around the NFL this season from the Chargers turning into the Falcons blowing every lead imaginable all the way to Daniel Jones tackling himself, and all I can think is how it’s by far one of my favorite starts to a season in recent memory…. That may or may not have something to do with my Steelers being undefeated!

If you guys and gals find you have a different choice in players for any of these awards please feel free to contact me on twitter and let me know what player it is and why you would give them the award. To me there is nothing more fun than discussing different football opinions, so please feel free. The way I like to describe fantasy football is an opinionated eye for talent, meaning there is a fair amount of skill that goes into fantasy but a ton of opinion and luck as well, which really makes it so much fun. If you really think about it without opinions in fantasy we would have zero reason to even play let alone draft or trade, because at the end of the day we would all just simply agree and that would be more boring than the Rams vs Patriots super bowl.

The only requirement will be that the player has played in most of the games, otherwise I would have to put players like Andrew Luck in this list. Yeah, I just threw out Andrew Luck in a 2020 article, why not right? Finally, I will shut up, and we will move on to the Dynasty Owner awards!

The “Why Did I Draft Him” Award

Winner – T.Y. Hilton (1-Year $13,000,000)

($276,008 $DD/PT)

Before getting to far into the first two awards I want to explain what these awards are for and what they mean. These awards will both be determined by each players dollar per point based on their salary and fantasy points scored. While TY Hilton may not be the technical answer here, he is by far one of the worst players as far as cost per point goes. Hilton’s unreal cost per point has more than doubled from the 2019 season and sits at $276,008 $DD/PT. Hilton was looked at as a possible solid veteran coming into the year judging by his 71.1% ownership.

I am willing to bet that if you were offered the same deal Jackie Moon had for Ed Monix (in the movie Semi Pro) sitting in front of you right now you would take it, wouldn’t you? I also need mention the runner up here which is Julio Jones at a whopping $202,952 $DD/PT this season. Julio was banged up a little but has still put up a few massive performances and has played in all but 2 games this year. I knew Julio’s cost would be high because of his 4-Year $22,000,000 contract, but I was not expecting it to be this bad. Just so it is out in the open for everyone to see the true winner is Andrew Luck at $24,594,000 $DD/PT.

The “I Am So Glad I Drafted Him” Award

Winner – Gardner Minshew (1-Year $677,721)

($3,987 $DD/PT)

Gardner Minshew was sitting at the top of the list when doing my research, and I have to say I was more than shocked it was not Alvin Kamara the way he has played. Minshew has been a very consistent fantasy player this season outside of week 3 against Miami when he posted a dud for 10 points. The offensive talent such as Chark, Robinson, Cole, and Shenault that Minshew has at his disposal shows up for fantasy owners each week, even if it does not for the Jaguars on Sundays. While this may be a great recipe this year it may translate to the Jags drafting Minshew’s replacement come spring. When I was doing a little rough drafting, I knew I would see Minshew somewhere near the top with as cheap as his salary is playing at the premier position in all of sports.

What I did not expect was to be taken on a full-on mustache ride like I was, not seeing a Kamara or Fulgham in the top spot. I know this is Minshew’s award, but I want to touch on Fulgham briefly and just how unbelievable this kid has been. Fulgham looks like a true alpha receiver who can do it all in this league, and is at the point if he’s able to continue playing close to the level he has recently that he may just earn the opportunity to be a force in the fantasy community for years to come.

Honorable Mention – Alvin Kamara ($4,926 $DD/PT)

The “I Really Want Him Moving Forward” Award

Winner – DK Metcalf (3 years $1,147,513)

($7,695 $DD/PT)

Is there a better contract in all of Dynasty Owner moving forward? I am sure you can make the case for some of the younger quarterbacks but with Metcalf it just seems you are going to have way more boom weeks than you bust. Metcalf is locked in with one of, if not the best quarterback in football Russel Wilson for the foreseeable future. Wilson has compared Metcalf and himself to Montana and Rice on several occasions and he just seems to enjoy flat out playing football with this kid, not to mention how much trust he’s shown in him. If you have Metcalf right now, I honestly think he’s almost untouchable, as nothing you will get back gives you the upside of Metcalf with Wilson on a week to week basis, especially at Metcalf’s salary.

Metcalf has posted an insane $7,695 $DD/PT so far this season and seems to be just getting started and being a prime candidate for the Wr1 spot on the season certainly helps his case for the award. Metcalf had an ADP of 37.8 this off season making him easily one of the best steals in the draft. I would be willing to bet a good majority of the top Chase for the Ring contestants have Metcalf on their roster balling out.

Honorable Mention – Kyler Murray ($37,708 $DD/PT)

The “Juggler” Award

Winner – Diontae Johnson (4 years $1,070,241)

($16,216 $DD/PT)

The Juggler award is one of my personal favorites and the meaning is quite explanatory, the point totals for the player juggle on a week to week basis more than anyone else. Johnson has had some of the highest highs this season, as we witnessed against the Titans when he exploded for 29 points, and another for 24.4 against the Broncos.

Johnson is also capable of some absolute stinkers posting 4 weeks this season with a score of 1.6 points or less for the week. These types of players are good to have around if you can predict when they are going to hit, if you cannot be ready for a headache all season long. Johnson has been banged up this season and I’m sure his owners are hoping that is why he has had so many of the lowest of lows this season. Did I mention this is one of my favorite awards, because it wouldn’t be if Johnson was on my team.

Honorable Mention – Brandin Cooks ($182,638 $DD/PT)

The “Best Jay Suggestion (Free Agent)” Award

Winner – Travis Fulgham (1-Year $540,000)

($5,596 $DD/PT)

This was one of the tougher calls I had on awards night as the two candidates were neck and neck. It came down to Mike Davis and Fulgham, with Fulgham gaining the edge because of his chance at longevity, and a cheaper salary. Is there honestly any better feeling in fantasy than picking up an absolute stud on waivers in any dynasty format, it is like a vacation that just relaxes and calms you in a way you cannot explain. Fulgham has done nothing but play spectacular since catching on with the Eagles, and his $5,596 $DD/PT is third in all of Dynasty Owner.

Fulgham stepped in as a no name kid in a big game against the 49ers catching the game winner and never looking back. The numbers he has been able to put up when he was a practice squad player just 5 weeks ago are unreal at 29 catches for 435 yards and 4 touchdowns and has shown the ability to produce in anyway needed. I heard Fulgham summed up the best way possible the other day when someone said Fulgham is living the American dream right now. I thought about it a while and he really is living the classic “American Dream” starting as an unknown becoming a household name playing his way into potentially millions of dollars, just as any wildly successful CEO does.

Honorable Mention – Mike Davis ($25,338 $DD/PT)

The “Best Young Gun” Award

Winner – Joe Burrow (4-Years $9,047,534)

($46,976 $DD/PT)

This was another insanely close race for me, but I must give Burrow the edge at this point with the way he has played under strenuous circumstances. What this kid has been able to do on a bad Bengals team is extremely impressive. The Bengals have capable play makers around Burrow no doubt about it, but their defense, and offensive line both rank near the bottom of the NFL.

As of October 15th Burrow had been pressured on a massive 51% of his drop backs and to think of it as a rookie being blitzed successfully on every other play while looking at how he’s performed thus far, it’s extremely remarkable. The rookie is completing 67% of his passes for 2,272 yards 11 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions under more pressure than America during election day. If I am the Bengals, I am drafting lineman with all my draft picks to ensure Burrow does not get as beat up as Tim Couch with the Browns. I really hope we all get the privilege of seeing of Burrow with an above average line soon, he may be unstoppable at that point.

Honorable Mention – Justin Herbert ($34,935 $DD/PT)

The “Surprise Birthday Party” Award

Winner – James Robinson (3-Years $763,333)

($5,629 $DD/PT)

Has anyone ever come out of nowhere like James Robinson was able to in this off season? All joking aside Robinson is the poster boy for the 2020 season, unlikely to happen but so much fun to watch, OK seriously now all joking aside. The Jags ultimately shocked the world when releasing Fournette with the season just around the corner, and what the world did not know was how good Robinson really was waiting in the balance.

I remember being somewhat alright with Fournette’s release even after drafting him because I drafted Armstead as well, and that play has smelt worse than a porter potty on a hot day. Thinking back to past fantasy seasons there are some comparable players to Robinson with Austin Ekeler being the one that stands out the most. One of the most mind-blowing stats I have seen on Robinson is his ADP at the 251st slot, which is the definition of league winner to me. If you were one of the lucky few to get Robinson at his shocking $5,629 $DD/PT feel free to toot your own horn a bit, you deserve it

Honorable Mention – Robby Anderson ($79,872 $DD/PT)

The “Kitchens to Stefanski” Award

Winner – Corey Davis (1-Year $6,348,672)

($75,670 $DD/PT)

This season has seen many players improve upon their 2019 campaigns and none has stood out more than Corey Davis. I know going into the year we were hearing a ton of chatter about how Davis is done and that there is no way well see another Devante Parker type breakout so late in one’s career, and if we did it would not be so soon. Well here we are 8 weeks in, and Davis sits at 29 receptions for 369 yards and 3 touchdowns, finally finding a solid option at quarterback.

Are the bad years of Davis to blame on Mariota or did it just take a while for him to figure the NFL out and get up to speed? Davis is another late round pick with an ADP of 234 making him another great steal here in Dynasty Owner. This is another one of those rare moments and special stories we do not see so often in sports. The only question that remains is if he can continue this level of play.

Honorable Mention – DK Metcalf ($7,695 $DD/PT)

The “Reminds Me of Watching the Jets” Award

Winner – Ezekiel Elliot (6-Years $15,000,000)

($112,697 $DD/PT)

As you have all learned from my previous articles, I love taking shots at the Jets. A few weeks back Tim, The Jerk, Steve, and I were chatting and the Jets had been brought up for some reason and Tim said “me being A Browns fan I know what it’s like and I try not to make fun of other teams” which makes me wonder if I’ve been spoiled in my lifetime as A Steelers fan in the middle of Browns country. This award is basically the most disappointing player and this year, and that has to be none other than Zeke. Zeke was a lock to be a top 5 back this off season, and with such a huge salary he had to be for your team to compete, unless you drafted extremely well.

Zeke is at a position that never ages well in this sport and this year seems to be nothing but a waste of one of his prime years. Elliot has a monster 6 years left on his deal so owners have to hope Dak is able to come back strong next season while getting a new deal allowing Zeke to get back to what we are used to seeing. I am one of the biggest Ohio State fans you will ever meet, and Zeke is near and dear to my heart, and it just kills me giving him this award.

Honorable Mention – Jonathon Taylor ($20,822 $DD/PT)

The “Opposite of Daniel Jones” Award

Winner- Kyler Murray (3-Years $8,789,661)

($37,708 $DD/PT)

This award name is pretty simple, I am looking for someone that is in their sophomore season, and on the opposite trajectory of Daniel Jones. I had to roll with Kyler here as he has been spectacular this season, especially on the ground and for fantasy. If you do not get the Cardinals games in your area you have got to find a way to watch this kid play weekly! Murray is so unique in the way he plays that he reminds me of Mighty Mouse, which makes him so much more entertaining to watch than most other quarterbacks. I honestly feel like a toddler zoned out watching baby shark every time I see the kid play. Kyler has been phenomenal statistically as well this season earning 233.1 fantasy points and a $37,708 $DD/PT.

Honorable Mention – Not Daniel Jones

The “JaMarcus Russel David Blaine” Award

Winner – Cam Akers (4-Years $1,543,258)

($80,799 $DD/PT)

Every year we as fantasy players see exciting new talent come into the league and we naturally overvalue some while undervaluing others, and 2020 has been no different. This award goes to the rookie that has just flat out disappeared (David Blaine) this season and has not performed much at all.  Akers was expected to perform at a high fantasy level being a 2nd round draft pick this past off season which is usually a great indicator that he would get a shot at a big role for the team that drafted him regardless of a rookie status. The fact Akers has only been able to produce 19.1 fantasy points thus far is a massive disappointment for his rookie campaign and fantasy owners alike.

Akers has produced a horrible $80,799 $DD/PT so far which his owners must be disgusted with, as well as them being disgusted drafting him at an ADP OF 34.6. I am not too sure which side of this I would choose at this moment in time, but it is between drafting Akers at his ADP knowing what we know now, or going full Brittany Spears meltdown twice a week for a year.  All joking aside Akers has the talent it just may not be showing up at practice for some reason which tends to happen at times with rookies, he should bounce back soon.

Honorable Mention- Ke’Shawn Vaughn ($80,607 $DD/PT)

The “Opposite of the Atlanta Falcons” Award

Winner – Leonard Fournette (1-Year $2,000,000)

($32,000 $DD/PT)

The Opposite of the Atlanta Falcons Award can only mean one thing, and that is a player who is going to finish strong…. something the Falcons have never done. Sorry Falcons fans! Fournette goes into week 9 with 62.5 fantasy points and a solid $32,000 $DD/PT for someone that has been hurt and has missed almost 4 full games, as well as signing late and having to learn a new system. I have noticed a few solid trends for Fournette the most important being that he has been thoroughly better than Ronald Jones every game he has been fully healthy.

Fournette only managed 10.1 fantasy points in week 8, but that was mostly due to the bad game the entire Buccaneers team had. Over week 7 and 8 Fournette has clearly established himself as the dominate pass catching back in the Brady led offense, which we all know is a fruitful place to be in football. Fournette sits at 225 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards for the 2020 season, and I am going to make a bold prediction on Fournette right here right now! Leonard Fournette will finish 2020 with at least 800 yards rushing and 250 yards receiving, and I must note that Tampa has yet to have their bye week.

Honorable Mention – Brandin Cooks ($182,638 $DD/PT)

The “Before the MVP Butt Fumble Look Alike” Award

Winner- Adam Gase (Salary Too Much)

Here it is guys, my full shot at the Jets, and more importantly Adam Gase. Every weekend I see a rare appearance of the Jets on the RedZone channel, and it is like a lunar eclipse. Every time I see Adam Gase in Gang Green, I see butt fumbles everywhere it sometimes leads to a nightmare. I have thought long and hard on this and I have yet to come up with one reason why Adam Gase still has a job in the NFL unless Woody Johnson is walking to his office 3 yards per day like Gase averages per play. I have made this comment more than once and I will say it again, has anyone made a coach more money than Peyton Manning has Adam Gase.

If we look back Gase got the Miami job shortly after Manning’s record-breaking season in Denver back before 50 touchdowns in a season was cool to do. We all know Manning was the offensive coach on his teams after a few years in the league, and if you are too young or just don’t remember go watch one 6 minute highlight of Manning and it will be him lining up calling 736 audibles before each snap. Never let the Omaha cadence die! Gase has failed miserably in each of his 2 stops, and I have to believe whenever the Jets finally come to their senses it will be the last we have seen of Gase as a head coach in the NFL… unless the Jets hire him back a few years down the road, which would be a typical jets move.

Honorable Mention – Daniel Jones Tripping Over Himself

The “2020 G.O.A.T” Award

Winner- Russell Wilson (4-Years $35,000,000)

($123,850 $DD/PT)

Is there anyone more exciting to watch or # on twitter this season than #LetRussCook. Wilson has been nothing short of brilliant this season while improving on what already was the most elegant deep ball the league has ever witnessed. I have a tough time deciding which has more beauty, a deep ball from Wilson to Metcalf or my wife on date night. All off season long we heard how the Seahawks were finally going to #LetRussCook and they have backed it up with Wilson throwing for 2,151 yards and 26 touchdowns just 8 games through the year, and not to mention he’s completing 71% of his passes as well as only throwing 6 interceptions.

Wilson has a massive salary inflating his point to dollar ratio sitting at $123,850 $DD/PT, but to analyze it a little better a player like Aaron Rodgers is all the way up at $154,949 $DD/PT with a cheaper salary. I could have easily gone a different direction here and focused more on dollars per point, but after thinking it through I just couldn’t as I don’t think Seattle wins one game this season without Wilson at the helm. When you are that important to your entire organization there is no way, I can select anyone else but said player as the G.O.A.T.

Honorable Mention – Alvin Kamara (RB Leader in $DD/PT)

Real Consideration – James Robinson (35th Overall in Scoring, ADP 251)

The “Last but Not Least Owner of The Year” Award

Winner – Dynasty Owner (Tim Peffer And Crew)

This here is by far my favorite and the most deserving award of all. This platform is so well put together and thought through Tim, Don, Paul, Seth, Steve, and Matt(The Jerk) have all put in a ton of time and effort into making this site what we have all come to love and enjoy, and will only get better. The innovations Dynasty Owner has introduced, and from what I can see will continue to introduce in the coming years are second to none and are all made to make our fantasy experience and the fantasy community that much better.

As I mentioned earlier, I feel privileged to work with such a fantastic group of individuals and hope to continue working to make Dynasty Owner a better more intriguing fantasy option than it was yesterday. Always remember word of mouth is one of the best and most reliable ways to help something grow as the person you’re telling is hearing it from someone they know and trust instead of a random guys with original names from a fantasy football website.

Thank you all for reading I hope you enjoyed this article as it was a lot of fun to write. As always good luck on your Chase for the Ring!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Blind QB and WR Comparisons

Author: Matt “The Jerk” Morrison

Hey y’all. It’s The Jerk here with my inaugural article. Today I’ll discuss some blind player comparisons and how the biased impressions we may have of players should not interfere with the statistics. In the same way, the total points a player has at the end of the season should not interfere with how the player arrived at that number.  (i.e. not all 1000-yard seasons are created equal) Let’s jump into some comps…

Wide Receivers

COMP 1

Who would you rather have between these two WRs?

Player A (Alpha):

  • 30 years old
  • 2019 stats
  • 14.3 points/game for the games played (222.8 for 16 game season)
  • 60 rec / 836 yards / 12 TD (for 16 game season)
  • He missed 8 games in 2019

Player B (Bravo):

  • 27 years old
  • 2019 stats
  • 14.9 points/game (238.4 total)
  • 83 rec / 1,174 yards / 6 TD
  • He played all 16 games in 2019

Alpha and Bravo’s salaries are within 1 million dollars of each other and the length of their contact is the same.

So, skim through that and (based on this limited data) decide which receiver you would prefer to draft…Have your answer?  I’m assuming it’s Bravo. That’s not to say that if you picked Alpha you are wrong, but people (in dynasty especially) tend to draft the younger, less injury prone player. This isn’t even mentioning the fact that Bravo outscored Alpha’s assumed point total if he’d been healthy.  Some may not be able to pass on the possibility of 12 touchdowns and that’s understandable. If you infer from Alpha’s numbers, you can see that he had 6 TD’s in 8 games in 2019. One hell of an 8-game stretch. While his reception total may not be the type of volume you’d like, it appears his efficiency made up for it. 

In the end, I would take Bravo.

  • Younger
  • Better average 16 game season
  • Seemingly healthier (at least last season)

Let me give out a little more info and see if it changes your mind…

Coming into 2020, Alpha is the clear WR1 on his team.  I would argue that his target share will be top 10 among all receivers this year.  His team is a run first offence, which explains some of the lack of volume he received for the half of the year he played.  In 2019, his team chose to pass on only 51.7% of plays.  That ranked 29th.

There’s not much to say about Bravo coming into 2020.  His offensive unit from 2019 has stayed intact (QB, WRs, RBs).  There is debate among analysts on whether he is the WR1 on the team or WR2.  To me, it doesn’t much matter.  Both are very talented receivers and either one could end 2020 with the better stats.  I’d call it a WR1A and WR1B situation with Bravo (fittingly) being the WR1B.  Bravo’s team passed on 59.6% of their plays.  That ranked 18th.

Has your opinion changed?  Maybe the fact that Alpha is primed for a high-volume season has swayed you to pick him?  Maybe the fact that you found out Bravo is going to be fighting for targets against a likely superior receiver has caused you to fade him?  Not me…I’m sticking with Bravo for now.  Let’s throw out some quick stats and see if you can guess the players, if you haven’t already. 

  • If you go back to 2018, Alpha was WR7 overall while Bravo was WR18.
  • For 2020, Alpha is projected to outscore Bravo by 21 points in DO.
  • Alpha makes 16,050,000 for 5 years, while Bravo makes 15,100,00 also for 5 years.
  • Alpha’s Offensive Coordinator in 2019 became Bravo’s Head Coach for 2020.

There’s a lot to unpack here. First, Alpha was far superior in 2018. WR7 doesn’t happen by accident or without elite receiver talent. Alpha is projected to be the more productive WR once again in 2020. As I stated in the opening, their contracts are very similar, but now we know the actual cap hit one or both of these guys will make.  They are each hovering around 15% of the cap. Also, remember what I said earlier about Alpha’s team having the 29th lowest passing percentage among NFL teams in 2019? Well, the Offensive Coordinator of Alphas team is now the head coach of Bravo’s team and it would stand to reason he will bring that low passing volume philosophy with him.

My point of this comp wasn’t necessarily to get you to contradict yourself although that may have happened. I was attempting to show how nuanced certain statistics can be and how no one stat or a group of stats can tell the entire picture. I’m sure many of you know who these two players are by now, but consider this idea…

These players are much closer together than they originally appeared based on the raw stats. Of course, everyone will still favor one player over the other, but it’s hard to argue a large gap in where they should be drafted or even where they will end up at the end of the season. It’s hard to argue until we get the final reveal…

Each player’s Dynasty Owner ADP at the time of writing…

  • Adam Thielen (Alpha):            56.3
  • Jarvis Landry (Bravo):            97.3

The gap of 41.0 between Thielen and Landry is, personally, surprising to see. I chalk it up to a couple of facts. First, Thielen’s target share is sure to take off this year barring another injury.  The departure of Diggs to Buffalo opens up 63 receptions and over 1,100 yards. Obviously, I don’t anticipate all of those targets or receptions to go to Thielen especially after drafting an exciting and talented WR in Justin Jefferson, but he will no doubt shoulder more of the passing volume. I would actually counter that point by bringing up Olabisi Johnson. The second year, seventh round draft pick comes into 2020 poised for a breakout. It would not be surprising to see Bisi start the season opposite Thielen and finish with 60 plus receptions. Second, it’s hard for drafters to justify taking a player like Jarvis in one of the first 8 rounds that is once again assumed to play second fiddle to Odell Beckham Jr. As I said earlier, I predict it to be more of a 1A, 1B situation similar to last year, but I can understand the hesitancy when OBJ carries as much upside as he does. Third, (and I think the more overarching point of this exercise) Jarvis is just an unsexy pick. He is a steady player who doesn’t “pop off” like other high upside players being drafted around him. He is reliable to sit between the 12-16 fantasy points most weeks with a slim chance of “week winning performances.”

For me, these stats show that Thielen and Landry should be drafted much closer than ADP currently has them. Ironically, the spot I think they should be drafted is much closer to Jarvis’ current ADP than Thielen’s. I have Thielen currently at 90 and Landry at 108.  The reason for that is simply their contracts. I prefer many younger (even rookie) receivers over both of them. I don’t see either one of them as a value where they’re currently being drafted, but I see Landry at 97.3 as much less of a reach than Thielen at 56.3. The second blind comp I have today is a little closer ADP wise, but we’ll get to that later.

COMP 2

Player C (Charlie):

  • 27 years old
  • 2019 stats
  • 16.1 points/game for games played (257.6 for 16 game season)
  • 87 rec / 1,127 yards / 8 TD for 16 game season.
  • He (miraculously) only missed one game last year.

Player D (Delta):

  • 25 years old
  • 2019 stats
  • 13.8 points/game for games played (220.7 for 16 game season)
  • 90 rec / 1,046 yards, 5 TD for 16 game season.
  • He did not miss a game in 2019.

Charlie and Delta’s salaries are within half a million dollars of each other. Admittedly, there isn’t much to go on that distinguishes these two players yet…Charlie had a 22.3 target percentage and a 24.0 reception percentage for his team.  Delta had a 25.0 target percentage and a 25.4 reception percentage for his team.

Charlie had 24 red zone targets and 17 red zone receptions.  24 and 17 is second only to Michael Thomas’ 26 and 20, respectively.  Delta had 12 red zone targets and 7 red zone receptions.  As you can probably guess based on final stats, Charlie converted more red zone receptions into touchdowns than Delta, to the tune of 7 (C) to 3 (D).

Charlie’s offensive unit remains intact from 2019.  His QB is hyper-efficient and finished as QB 3 last year.  Charlie is the WR 1 on his team, but alongside him is a second year WR who was flirting with a 1,000-yard season himself in 2019.  Delta is working with a rookie QB who will be the Week 1 starter and a veteran WR who “should” be healthy this year after missing all of last season with multiple injuries.  (I know this just gave away Player D, but this is important info I had to include) there’s no doubt that Delta will bump down to the WR 2 on the team.

Who would you rather have?

If you haven’t guessed yet, I’m talking about two Tyler’s here.  Lockett (C) and Boyd (D). Tyler Lockett is making $10,250,000 for two years.  Tyler Boyd is making $10,750,000 for the next four years. At the time of this writing, Lockett’s ADP is 79.0 and Boyd’s is 76.4.

I’ll give you my opinion…I want Lockett. I concede that Seattle is stingy when it comes to passing and are a run heavy offence, (In fact, Seattle was 27th last year in passing play percentage) but Russell and Lockett have proven to be the one of the most efficient QB/WR duo in the league. I don’t like to listen to coach talk or listen to narratives, (especially when it comes from the most optimistic Head Coach in the league, Pete Carroll) but I believe Pete when he says, “we want him to have more opportunity to be the factor of the game and control the game.” I don’t expect a full #LetRussCook season is coming, but I do believe Russell will have more passing opportunities this year which, in turn, would give more opportunity to Lockett.  Lockett is obviously well trusted in the red zone and the ten-zone. While touchdowns are notoriously unpredictable, it is refreshing to see that Russell trusts Lockett in the end zone, and I don’t expect that volume to vanish. 

This is not to say that I hate Boyd or wouldn’t draft him.  I do like him and would be happy to take him if he fell to a value.  The problem I see is twofold.  First, Joe Burrow coming in may not be as smooth a transition as most predict.  Obviously, the talent is there, and I’m predicting a successful career for Joe, but with this unprecedented pre-season, I see some growing pains.  Second, the “return” of AJ Green gives me pause.  I get it.  I get it.  As soon as AJ is mentioned people immediately start rolling their eyes and tune out.  AJ has played 35 games in the last four seasons.  That’s less than nine games a season.  So, I understand if you want to make the argument, “AJ will get hurt at some point this season, and when he does, Boyd will be catapulted into a top 15 WR.”  It’s an understandable argument, but I personally don’t like to bet on injury.  I factor injury risk into my rankings like most, but I’m not going to use another player’s injury potential to indirectly affect his teammate’s ranking.  Suffice it to say, I believe AJ will play at least 10 games this season.  If he does, Boyd is being drafted slightly too high, and he definitely shouldn’t be taken over Lockett.  If AJ plays all 16 games healthy (I admit it’s a longshot), then Boyd is being drafted way too high.  I have Tee Higgins and Auden Tate also competing for an impactful amount of targets this year.  Again, Cincinnati doesn’t have the most crowded offence in the league, but it is deceptive how many mouths there are to feed.

Boyd deserves to be drafted, but with his nearly 11-million-dollar salary, the middle of the sixth round is a little too early for my comfort.  In my updated rankings, I have Lockett at WR 30 (81 Overall) and Boyd at WR 36 (93 Overall).  In addition, I would rather take these WR’s that are currently being drafted after Boyd…

  • Keenan Allen: $11,250,00 for 1 year (81.4)
  • Darius Slayton: $688,497 for 3 years (84.1)
  • Dionte Johnson: $1,070,241 for 3 years (88.1)

Slayton and Johnson are obvious picks for me.  The 10-million-dollar cap saving you’re getting with either of these guys far outweighs the increase in points that Boyd will provide.  Allen has a comparable salary, but I see his role being much more defined and unaffected than Boyd’s, even given the probable QB turnover in LA.

Now, let’s jump to some QB comps…

Quarterbacks

COMP 1

In a vacuum, who would you rather draft?

Player A (Alpha):

  • 24 years old
  • 2019 stats
  • 20.7 points/game average (331.2 points for 16 game season)
  • 3,738 yards / 24 TD / 7 INT (for 16 game season)
  • 2020 Projected: 324 points
  • Salary is $677,721 for 3 years

Player B (Bravo):

  • 27 years old
  • 2019 stats
  • 22.6 points/game (361.2 points)
  • 4,039 yards / 27 TD / 7 INT
  • 2020 Projected:  399 points
  • Salary is $32,000,000 for 5 years

Clearly, Bravo is projected to outscore Alpha, and I would agree that is likely to happen this year. The question becomes…is the (projected) 75-point difference enough to justify a more than 31-million-dollar upcharge? I would emphatically say no. 31 million is 27% of your cap. In other words, you would be using 27% of your cap for a 75-point increase.  I know what you’re saying…” But projections aren’t always accurate.” I completely agree.  Let’s say for argument’s sake that we believe Player B will outscore Player A by 120 points.  Would the 31-million-dollar upcharge now be worth it?  Possibly.  Maybe. I don’t think I would pay it, but there are certainly people that would.  At the time of this writing, Gardner Minshew (A) and Carson Wentz (B) are being drafted at 69.5 and 48.8 respectively. On average, Wentz is being drafted 21 spots before Minshew.  Baffling… Obviously, there are many more factors that I’m leaving out involving these two QB’s, but I think I’ve made my point. Young, cheap starting QB’s are few and far between in this game and they should be valued that way. I could make this same argument for Drew Lock, Sam Darnold, and even Dwayne Haskins.  Give me all three of those earlier than Wentz. Please please please, don’t draft Wentz over Minshew. For reference, Steve Van Tassel and I have a consensus ranking of QB 11 for Minshew and QB 18 for Wentz.

COMP 2

Let’s compare a couple hypothetical QB situations next…

Player C (Charlie):

  • 25 years old
  • Previous years stats
  • 30.4 points/game (486.7 points)
  • 4,900 yards / 36 TDs / 10 INT
  • 400 rush yards / 3 rush TDs

Player D (Delta):

  • 31 years old
  • Previous years stats
  • 27.7 points/game (442.4 points)
  • 4,300 yards / 33 TDs / 8 INT
  • 330 rush yards / 3 rush TDs

Who would you rather have? The clear answer is Charlie. He is younger, put up more points last year, and (I didn’t include it) will be projected to score more points this coming year. Would your mind change if Charlie cost (let’s say) 10 million more than Player D?

Maybe? Probably? It makes the decision a lot tougher, no doubt. 

Well this is actually not a hypothetical scenario. This is the decision that Dynasty Owners will be making next year between Patrick Mahomes (C) and Russell Wilson (D) in Dynasty Owner start up drafts. The “previous years stats” are the projected finish for each of them for 2020. Obviously, neither of them will finish with those exact stats, but I think it’s reasonable to believe those are close. 

At any rate, who do you want going into 2021? I, personally, would still take Mahomes and find a way to save the extra 10 million each year, but it’s very close. I could make an argument for Wilson and my main point would be the fact that you are only tied to him for a third of the years you are tied to Mahomes. My point is that next year (after Mahomes is no longer 4.1 million a year to own), he and Wilson should be much closer in ADP, if not back to back. This means that Mahomes’ current ADP of 2.0 is that high, mainly for this year. Let me ask this a different way…

If Mahomes’ contract was 45 million this year, where would you have drafted him? My honest answer is QB 11 or around 75 overall and right before Wilson. This is the reason I am so much lower on Mahomes’ than almost everyone I have talked to.  I understand how important this year is. I understand the “win now” mentality and if you have Mahomes for 4.1 million, you have a great chance to win, but I can’t justify taking a 45 million-dollar QB next year first or second overall.  I like Mahomes. Scratch that. I love Mahomes, but there is no value (Dynasty Owner wise) to take him in the first half of the first round.

I’ll sum it up in this way…Dynasty Owner Tim stated a few weeks ago that there will be a time in this game where Russell Wilson is a value.  I couldn’t agree with him more. That time will start next year when Mahomes gets paid and it will peak in two years when Lamar, Watson and most likely Dak are making more than him. If Russell starts to slide in drafts to a point of value and you’ve been diligent with your cap, don’t be afraid to grab him. You’ll thank yourself in two years.

Thanks everyone for sticking with me. Take care and be safe. Cheers!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

The Top Five Players to Draft at Every Position

Author: Jay Poundsee

As we have all learned, Dynasty Owner is a far different fantasy football game than any of us have ever known. In this format, you will find more extraordinary differences in value than any other draft you have ever found yourself in. In my start-up draft, I watched players like Courtland Sutton and his $1,710,480 salary be drafted with the 34th pick. While a player like Julio Jones and his $22,000,000 salary fell to me all the way down at the 51st selection of the draft. Looking at these draft boards without any insight to the situation may be enough to drive the average man insane. The thought of trying to figure out how Mecole Hardman with a salary of $1,248,763 gets sandwiched between Keenan Allen at $11,250,000 and Stefon Diggs and his $14,400,000 salary may just drive you bonkers. Luckily, we at Dynasty Owner have your back and are here to help.

In this article I will be giving the top 5 players at each position I recommend targeting in your upcoming drafts. The requirements will be players with high upside, 2 or more years left on their deal, and under $9.9 (million) per year salary(5th year options will be assumed).

Quarterbacks

Let us start with what I feel is the most important position here in Dynasty Owner, which is the quarterback. The number one QB and most likely number 1 pick in every draft will be Lamar Jackson with 2 years at $2.3(million) left on his deal. He is almost a sure bet to be the best value in all of Dynasty Owner in terms of cost per point.

At number two, I have Kyler Murray, who has 4 years left at $8,789,661 per year. I have Kyler at number 2 because of the potential he showed in 2019 as a rookie on a bad football team. It also helps when you give a young talented kid a wide-out named Deandre Hopkins. Needless to say, the Arizona Cardinals are a must watch on TV this season.

At the 3rd quarterback spot has to be Daniel Jones with 4 years left at $6,416,014. I know the majority will have Josh Allen over Jones, but I feel Jones has more upside after the rookie year he just had. If you take Jones stats and stretch them out over 16 games, he would have broken Baker Mayfield’s rookie touchdown record of 27(paced at 32) along with roughly 350-400 rushing yards and that screams great cost per point at the quarterback position.

As mentioned above, I have Josh Allen at 4 with 2 years left at $5,295760. Allen has improved each year and seems to have a solid floor because of his rushing work near the goal line. When you pair that with a cheap salary it makes him an easy choice here.

Rounding out my top 5 is the incoming number 1 overall draft pick Mr. Joe Burrow at $9,047,534 and 5 years to go on his deal. I absolutely love Burrow’s potential as well as the sneaky good upside of the Bengals offense and what they have started to build around him in year 1. Burrow just had the best college season ever, while showing the most poise and confidence we have ever witnessed. He is still a rookie so for now he checks in at number 5. This kid has greatness written all over him!

Running Backs

With our next position, we will be talking about the running backs. In these rankings you won’t find any better than Saquon Barkley with 3 years left at $7,798,688. There isn’t much here to say about Barkley. He pretty much speaks for himself at this point, health is the only concern.

At number 2 I have Clyde Edwards-Helaire at $2,705,393 with 5 years left on his deal. I know hes only a rookie but looking back through recent history, first round running backs have always seen 200 plus touches (aside from Rashad Penny). If Joe Blow from the corner store was in this Chiefs backfield getting 200 plus touches at a low salary, I would want him on my roster. Let’s not forget the reports of Mahomes texting CEH during the draft saying “I want you on my team” or Coach Andy Reid’s Brian Westbrook comparison. I think it’s safe to say the chiefs have big time plans for their rookie.

At 3, I have Miles Sanders and his $1,337,544 salary with another 3 years to go in Doug Pederson’s offense. Philly’s running backs coach Deuce Staley has had nothing but high praises this off season about Sanders talent and his upcoming workload, which means big things are coming. Sanders is an immensely talented running back who broke out in the second half last year. I would rank him in the top 5 of all Running backs on pure talent alone.

At 4, I have Josh Jacobs and his $2,983,350 salary with 4 years left on his deal. Jacobs is a true workhorse who could use some work on his receiving, but he seems to have a remarkably high floor and a huge workload ahead of him.

Rounding out the running backs, I have Nick Chubb in 5th. His salary is $1,845,774 and he still has 2 more years left on his contract in Cleveland. The presence of Kareem Hunt is what puts Jacobs ahead of Chubb here.

Wide Receivers

Starting things off at wide receivers, I have one of my personal favorite young fantasy players in all formats and that’s DJ Moore with a potential 3 years left at $2,792,829. I love the upside of Moore and the potential he has shown his first 2 years and let’s face it, he’s yet to have anything but a below average quarterback throwing him the ball. The floor for DJ Moore is extremely high with Teddy Two Gloves in the mix. The next slot was tough for me as I am a diehard Ohio State Buckeye fan and love the upside mixed with production for Terry McLaurin.

With that said, at number 2 I have to go with AJ Brown at $1,413,092 and 3 years left on his deal. I think the upside of the Titans offense is far superior to The Washington Football Team giving AJ Brown a much safer floor and a higher ceiling going forward. In 2019 Brown had just under 19% of the Titans target share which is all but guaranteed to receive a boost in 2020. Somehow, despite all of that he was still able to produce 1,051 yards and 8 touchdowns. Once Ryan Tannehill (who the Titans resigned to a 4 year deal this past off season) took over, Brown exploded onto the fantasy scene.

My third receiver as stated above is Terry McLaurin, who I see as a target monster in Washington. We have all seen with targets comes production in just about all cases. McLaurin has 3 years left at $961,918 which is going to make him an amazing cost per point player in 2020 and years to come.

At number 4 I have DK Metcalf who has 3 years at $1,146,513 left on his deal. In 2019 Metcalf flashed tremendous potential alongside Russel Wilson. Anytime I can get a talent like that catching passes from a quarterback like Wilson sign me up.

At 5 I have my second DJ in DJ Chark JR at $1,111,807 and 2 years left on his current deal. The offense in Jacksonville doesn’t get my wheels spinning but Chark is too good of a cheap young talent to pass on.

Tight Ends

Finally, we have everyone’s favorite position the tight ends. My number 1 tight end here in Dynasty Owner regardless the requirements is none other than Mark Andrews with a salary of just $863,290 and 2 years left. I love the upside of Andrews in the Ravens offense where he played only 44 percent of the team’s offensive plays last year. With the way Andrews has produced thus far he’s almost a lock to be on the field more this season. Look for a big bump up in production for Mr. Andrews in the coming seasons.

In the 2nd spot, I have my breakout tight end in 2020, Dallas Goedert. Goederts salary is $1,406,068 and he has 2 years left on his current deal. I look for Zach Ertz to start showing his age and have a dip in production along with the Eagles receiving situation I look for Goedert to have a big year with a huge bump in targets this season.

At number 3, I have TJ Hockenson at $4,955,306 and 4 years left on his deal. Tight ends tend to take longer than any other position to transition into the NFL and with Hockenson at a cheap salary and potential high production coming over the next few years, he is a no-brainier for me to want on my roster.

Right behind Hockenson at number 4, I have his old Iowa Hawkeye teammate and freak athlete, Noah Fant. The Bronco tight end has as much upside as any young tight end at a salary of $ 3,147,680 and 4 years left in Denver. Which makes him a must have tight end in this format.

Bringing up the rear at number 5, I have Chris Herndon with 2 years left at $792,841. Herndon had a very disappointing year in 2019 with a suspension and 2 separate injuries holding him to just one catch for 7 yards. While 2019 may have been a disappointment, Herndon was excellent his rookie year breaking the rare 500 yard receiving mark for tight ends in their rookie year.

I hope this article helps all of you in your upcoming drafts and remember to always think about your salary next year, who has a new contract coming, and cost per point in this format it’s what will win you championships here in Dynasty Owner.

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