Buy, Sell, and Hold – AFC West Edition

By: Jay Pounds (@JayPoundsNFL)

I honestly feel like a kid waiting on Christmas right now waiting for football to start. As we continue to inch closer and closer, I will continue to break down what I feel is every player who will have an impact on our Dynasty Owner season. I know sometimes these rebuilding seasons can be frustrating but as I always say your season is what you make of it. If you are rebuilding the last thing you want to do is wait and let the rebuild come to you. You should be trying to attack every weak spot on your roster by trading and picking up young guys who have high upside.

In this week’s article, we will be breaking down the AFC West and what rebuilding owners should do with each player in the division, including the 2-time defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs. I will place each player into one of three categories titled Buy, Sell, or Hold. If you see a player in the Buy category it means he is someone you will want to have on your rebuilding roster, and they are worth trading for if the price is right. Players in the Hold category are players that won’t fetch enough value in a trade to compensate for the upside they have, or they have roadblocks in the way of playing time, a great example of this would be Michael Gallup. The players who are in the sell category are players I feel should be on championship contending rosters, or players who just do not fit a rebuilding timeline. If there is anyone you feel I left out or put in the wrong category feel free to let me know on Twitter!

BUY

Chiefs

  • Patrick Mahomes – 11 years, $45,000,000

As great as Patrick Mahomes is some may question why he is a buy with such a massive contract. While this is a solid argument I feel it will be a value in a few years as the salary cap continues to rise. The only reason not to take on Mahomes if you are rebuilding is if you truly feel we have seen the best of him (we have not). $60 million contracts are not far away in the NFL, so get him while you still can!

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire – 3 years, $2,705,393

Clyde Edwards-Helaire may be my top owned player throughout all my fantasy teams by the time the season starts because of how cheap he got. I understand the hate on CEH, but I don’t agree with it. The kid came into a well-oiled machine of an offense and had 1,100 scrimmage yards on top of missing three games because of injury. I also see him getting a pretty significant bump in passing game work in 2021. If you are sleeping on him going into the year I feel you will come to regret it when all is said and done.

  • Byron Pringle – 1 year, $2,133,000

Byron Pringle has been a quiet, yet solid pro in his days with the Kansas City Chiefs. I have Pringle as a buy here because someone in the Chiefs receiving room must emerge as the number two guy. As a rebuilding owner I’m only looking to acquire the Chiefs 2nd guy to move him in a later deal, as I feel they will draft someone at the position next year.

  • Mecole Hardman – 2 years, $1,248,763

Mecole Hardman like Byron Pringle has a clear-cut opportunity for the number 2 receiver role in Kansas City. Fantasy managers have been excited for Hardman since the day he was drafted, and he has yet to pan out. I am buying Hardman anywhere I can but be careful not to overpay on someone who has not done it in the NFL yet.

  • Cornell Powell – 4 years, $930,038

I have seen a ton of buzz on Powell since being drafted by the Chiefs and I honestly don’t agree with it. Powell had a so-so college career at Clemson and was not talked about all that much before the NFL draft. All of that said, I do have him as a buy simply because he is young and attached to Patrick Mahomes.

  • Antonio Callaway – 1 year, $920,000

Antonio Callaway is a complete flier at this point in his career but just like the few listed before him, he plays in the right offense. Callaway started his career with the Browns and flashed success as a rookie, but after character concerns coming into the league he found himself in trouble shortly after being drafted. If Callaway can find his way in KC, he could be a steal that absolutely no one is talking about.

Chargers

  • Justin Herbert – 3 years, $6,644,688

I won’t speak to much here on Herbert as his play at the quarterback position as a rookie sums up why you want this kid on your roster. I have said it many times and will say it many more, young quarterbacks are Dynasty Owner gold.

  • Joshua Kelly – 3 years, $1,018,835

At the beginning of 2020, we saw Joshua Kelly involved early and often giving his owners a lot of hope. Once Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson went down, it seemed like Kelly was going to be the featured guy. Instead, it turned out to be more of a committee approach featuring Kalen Ballage. Kelly is a longshot, but you can get him for next to nothing at this point.

  • Larry Rountree – 4 years, $913,940

The Joshua Kelly replacement is going to be none other than Larry Rountree. I am not expecting him to have a big impact in year one if Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson stay healthy, but he is in play to have a big role in 2022. I can also see the possibility of him being involved early as Jackson and Ekeler are not known for running between the tackles. Rountree has a wide range of outcomes and will be cheap to acquire. Rountree for power back in L.A.!!

  • Josh Palmer – 4 years, $1,258,365

While the Chargers did elect to bring Mike Williams back on his fifth year option, I still think Palmer can be effective in year one. Palmer underwhelmed big time at Tennessee in college but has all the tools to be the type of receiver the Chargers envisioned Mike Williams to be when they drafted him in the first round.

  • Jalen Guyton – 1 year, $540,000)\

Jalen Guyton quietly showed great progress throughout 2020 and may have earned himself a role moving forward. The number 2 spot in L.A. is Mike Williams spot to lose but the 3rd spot is wide open in an offense who put up a ton of points last season. If you can get your hands on Guyton and he does win the job, I would look to flip him before the season is over and add some extra draft capital to your team.

  • Tre’ McKitty – 4 years, $1,196,462

I talked about Tre’ McKitty a while back and love the future outlook of this kid. In front of McKitty on the Chargers roster is an aging Jared Cook who seems to just catch the ball and fall down at this stage of his career. I do not expect McKitty to overtake Cook instantly but by the end of the year, I would not be surprised to see McKitty as a starting tight end who is tied to Justin Herbert for many years to come.

Raiders

  • Henry Ruggs – 3 years, $4,167,906

I am not sure there was a more upsetting position player than Henry Ruggs in 2020. Ruggs was the first wide receiver taken in last year’s draft ahead of guys like Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, and Tee Higgins, making the Ruggs selection that much worse. You can probably pick up Ruggs for a 2nd round pick plus a little something extra to make the other owner feel warm and fuzzy. The Raiders will give Ruggs every chance in the world to succeed this season, which is why he is an easy buy for rebuilding owners.

  • Darren  Waller – 3 years, $7,450,000

In my opinion, Waller is a massive buy for rebuilding owners with a big but, which is if you are just starting your rebuild I would wait until after this season to buy him, so he is not winning your team a bunch of games and hurting your draft capital. At just 28 years old, Waller should still be producing big time when your team is ready to compete. We have yet to see the best of Darren Waller on a football field.

  • Bryan Edwards – 3 years, $1,173,113

Does everyone remember how hot of a name Bryan Edwards was at this time last off-season? Edwards had an insane amount of hype and I honestly feel like it was because the Raiders had no one for him to compete with. Fast forward a year and Edwards is being talked about some, but nothing like last season. Odds tell us one of Henry Ruggs or Bryan Edwards will have a solid year based on volume alone. Rebuilding owners should acquire these guys now and see what happens.

  • Hunter Renfrow – 2 years, $708,987

While Hunter Renfrow should likely be a hold, I am going to go out on a limb and label him a buy. He will be a longshot and will never be a star, but he can offer consistent bench scoring, or if a receiver or two gets hurt for the Raiders you may be able to sell him for a good amount more than it took to get him. Remember rebuilding owners just because they are a buy before the season it does not mean you need to keep them forever.

  • Marcus Mariota – 1 year, $3,500,000

I have Marcus Mariota here for two reasons, one being he looked great in relief last season for Carr, and second because the Raiders seem to hate Carr as much as Bruce Arians hates Ronald Jones. If you have Mariota on a rebuilding roster and Carr goes down for the year, someone will pay a premium for Mariota at his current contract.

Broncos

  • Javonte Williams – 4 years, $2,216,438

Like I always say I tend to shy away from running backs at the start of a rebuild but Williams should not see a massive workload in year one which should preserve his body some. Williams is the ideal rebuilding running back because he has a bright future and should not win you any weeks in year one sharing time with Melvin Gordon. Buying Williams now will be expensive, but his asking price should only go up from here on out.

  • Jerry Jeudy – 3 years, $3,798,243

Jerry Jeudy had a rough collection of quarterbacks throwing him the ball in 2020, yet he still had a solid season and really picked it up towards the end of the year. These are three of the quarterbacks Jeudy was stuck catching passes from last season, Drew Lock, Jeff Driskel, and Kendall Hinton. Big time production is coming for Jeudy owners.

  • Courtland Sutton – 1 year, $1,710,480

As much as I love Courtland Sutton, I had a lot of trouble putting him in with the players rebuilding owners should be buying. The issues I have with Sutton have zero to do with his talent on the field but with him coming off an injury and his salary getting ready to go up significantly I am not sure he is right for rebuilding owners. If you have cap room and can afford to keep him next season, I would take the risk if Sutton comes cheap enough.

  • K.J. Hamler – 3 years, $1,784,282

Hamler reminds me of a toddler who just ate an entire bag of pixy sticks because of the way you see him zooming all over the field and he is very tough to locate at times. Hamler has the makings of today’s DeSean Jackson and if that turns out to be true, he is someone you will want on your rebuilding roster. Hamler should not cost much more than a 3rd round pick right now as he is still a year or two out from really making a difference, which is the perfect time to buy.

  • Noah Fant – 2 years, $3,147,680

Noah Fant is a young athletic tight end who has gotten better each year in the league. If I am a rebuilding owner buying Fant I am praying he does not completely explode until his contract is finished. If Fant continues to slowly get better each year until his deal is up, he will probably get Darren Waller money, but if he explodes beforehand he is going to get pricey quick. The tight end position is a true difference maker in fantasy, if you are rebuilding make sure you find an up-and-coming stud.

  • Albert Okwuegbunam – 3 years, $1,011,011

I hope all of you watch the video and hear how bad I mess this man’s name up. Albert Okwuegbunam is a solid young tight end who seems like he will find a steady role in the NFL. I am not expecting Albert O to become a star by any means, but he could be someone who is an extremely solid bench player in the coming years.

HOLD

Chiefs

  • Darwin Thompson – 2 years, $661,960

I will keep it short and sweet with Darwin Thompson as he could probably be left off the list at this point. If you have Thompson, he will net you nothing in a trade. If you must, hold onto him and see what happens. I would prefer to outright drop Thompson for someone with more upside.

  • Demarcus Robinson – 1 year, $1,127,500

I have Robinson on the Hold list instead of the Buy list like the rest of the Chiefs receivers because he is a bit older and has had more chances to make an impact. Robinson is definitely worth a roster spot, and I would recommend holding to see what happens. He may blow up and net amazing value in a trade.

Chargers

  • Justin Jackson – 1 year, $570,000

If Justin Jackson could ever stay healthy he could be an excellent change of pace back. In 2020, Jackson had a fantastic opportunity with Austin Ekeler going down and just could not stay healthy. As a rebuilding owner I would hold onto him for the year unless you get blown away by an offer. Jackson will be a free agent this year and could end up in a Tarik Cohen type role elsewhere.

  • Mike Williams – 1 year, $15,680,000

Has anyone had enough of Mike Williams after just four NFL seasons? If Williams can ever put together a full season he could be a tremendous value. Williams has already had a 10 touchdown season and a 1,000 receiving yard season in his career, yet it’s been more disappointing than not. I’m keeping Williams for now but if he explodes and you can find a taker I would move him in a heartbeat.

Raiders

  • Derek Carr – 2 years, $25,000,000

As I mentioned in the part featuring Marcus Mariota, the Raiders hate Derek Carr. Carr has been a solid NFL quarterback since taking over the Raiders miserable franchise, making them relevant again, at least somewhat relevant. The Raiders have done a horrid job of building around Carr. If you do not believe me just look at some of the guys Jon Gruden has drafted; cough, cough Henry Ruggs over CeeDee Lamb, or Justin Jefferson. As of now Carr is a hold as you will not get much in return for him because of his salary and the fact he offers zero upside running the ball.

  • Kenyan Drake – 2 years, $5,500,000

As much as I love the talent of Kenyan Drake, I have to say I cannot remember a more frustrating fantasy career. In the beginning of Drake’s career, we all just wanted to see him get consistent playing time. He then gets moved to Arizona where he blew up over the back half of the season in 2019. Drake was given the transition tag and the keys to the Arizona backfield where he was a disappointment in 2020. Fast-forward to 2021 and Drake is now behind Josh Jacobs after it seemed he would be a Cardinal for a while.

  • Willie Snead – 1 year, $1,127,500

At this stage of Willie Snead’s career, I am not expecting him to do a whole lot, but we have seen crazier things happen in the NFL. If you already have Snead rostered I would hold onto him just in case Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards are complete busts again this season.

  • Zay Jones – 1 year, $2,500,000

I won’t waste much of your time talking about Zay Jones, but he could end up in a situation like I just mentioned with Willie Snead.

Broncos

  • Mike Boone – 2 years, $1,925,000

If you own Mike Boone I see him as a must Hold. Boone has been talked about as an extremely talented running back who just can’t find the field. Boone started in Minnesota behind Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison and the second it looks like he is finally a clear-cut backup to Melvin Gordon, the Broncos draft Javonte Williams. If Williams does not pan out, or if Gordon has lost a step Mike Boone could step in with no problems.

  • Tim Patrick – 1 year, $3,384,000

2020 was the Tim Patrick show in Denver! If Patrick didn’t have another year remaining on his deal in 2020, he would be an easy cheap buy right now, but the fact is he will be playing behind Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and a 2nd year K.J. Hamler, who has potential to make noise, keeps him off the Buy list. I’m holding Patrick in the hopes that Sutton is not ready to start the year and, in that scenario, I’m offing Patrick for whatever I can get.

SELL

Chiefs

  • Darrel Williams – 1 year, $1,600,000

It seems Darrel Williams is going into the year as the clear cut backup for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Williams did not impress in the work he received in 2020 and should be firmly on every rebuilding owner’s trade block. Get what you can before you can’t!

  • Tyreek Hill – 2 years, $18,000,000

As I mentioned last week with Nick Chubb and Lamar Jackson, I hate labeling these players as a sell but in Dynasty Owner it makes even more sense. Tyreek Hill is not going anywhere for a while, but he will be getting a massive new deal in just two years. Even as great as Hill is, if I’m rebuilding, I’d take the big package he will fetch and move on.

  • Travis Kelce – 5 years, $14,312,500

Travis Kelce is perhaps the best tight end we have ever seen in the NFL and I’m telling you to get rid of him now. At 31 years of age, Kelce will probably be producing when you are ready to compete, but it makes much more sense to go after players like Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, or Darren Waller who you can get for Kelce no problem and all of whom are younger. Rebuilding is all about trading current productive players for future productive players and Kelce is no exception.

Chargers

  • Austin Ekeler – 3 years, $6,125,000

Austin Ekeler is my favorite sell on the list, simply because he is highly productive on a team friendly deal. Ekeler has half of the contract as the other RBs in his range with a whopping three years remaining. If you are moving Ekeler make sure the other owner realizes what a value his contract is in a very weak running back market. Oh, and being attached to Justin Herbert never hurts.

  • Jared Cook – 1 year, $4,500,000

I am guessing Jared Cook’s best days have come and gone. Cook can still be a productive tight end for a couple more seasons but has no business being on any rebuilding roster. Jared Cook is no different than Eric Ebron who I mentioned last week as an aging tight end who can help contenders. Move him for whatever you can get at this point.

Raiders

  • Josh Jacobs – 2 years, $2,983,350

While Josh Jacobs is no Nick Chubb, it still feels gross to call someone like him a sell with how the running back landscape is looking. In 2021, if you have a Top 20-25 running back you should be able to get 1.5 times the value you would have last year. The running back market looks like a steaming pile of poop at the moment and rebuilding owners with running backs should take advantage of it.

  • John Brown – 1 year, $3,750,000

I know we all remember how Nelson Agholor came out of nowhere with the Raiders last season and put up a very solid year, solid enough to land a sizable contract from the Patriots. Barring a complete turnaround for both Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards, Brown should step into the role Agholor played so well last season. Brown is a borderline hold but I would sell him if the opportunity presents itself.

Broncos

  • Drew Lock – 2 years, $1,752,704

I do not know how many times I’ve said it, but cheap quarterbacks are gold in Dynasty Owner. At this point we are all unsure if Lock will be the starter this year for the Broncos, but someone will take a flier on him just because he will come cheap. Drew Lock is someone I would let go for any draft capital as a rebuilding owner. I also would not blame you if you held Lock to see if he is the starter when the season starts, which will no doubt raise his trade value.

  • Teddy Bridgewater – 1 year, $11,499,000

If I own Teddy Bridgewater, I am selling him immediately. There is a good chance (in my opinion) Lock is the starter at the beginning of the season because he was drafted early by the Broncos. If that scenario plays out, you will likely get nothing out of Bridgewater and if you do get something, it will be minimal. If Bridgewater is the Broncos perceived starter in 2021, I highly recommend you capitalize as soon as possible. The other thing to look at with Bridgewater is do you really think Bridgewater will be starting come 2022. I know I do not.

  • Melvin Gordon – 1 year, $8,000,000

Finally, we have the controversial Melvin Gordon. Gordon is facing a suspension this season, which could lead to his demise in Denver. While Gordon is away, it will do nothing but give the coaching staff opportunities to look at Javonte Williams and Mike Boone. If I have Gordon and there is a decent offer on the table, he is as good as gone. Gordon is also another player you could gamble and hold, but I would not recommend it with him.

Conclusion

Here you have it guys, half of the AFC has been broken down into categories for you. I would love to hear if you feel different about players than I do and why.

I want to take a second to thank all of you for playing Dynasty Owner and helping the platform grow. If you plan to invite some friends over to the site, be sure to check into the all-new affiliate program to earn some cash back for helping spread the good word. As always don’t forget to check out Matt’s articles and videos which release on Mondays and Steve’s articles and videos which release on Wednesdays. Thank you for reading and as always good luck on your 2021 Chase for the Ring!

Dynasty Owner QB Tiers

By Steven Van Tassell

Tier rankings are one way that fantasy players and analysts categorize players. There are a lot of ways to do it and plenty of websites and analysts who do these types of rankings. A quick Google search for “Fantasy Football Tiers 2021” turns up about 4.1 million results. If you add the words “Dynasty” at the beginning, it increased to about 4.86 million results. However, if you make it “Dynasty Owner”, the number drops down to about 686,000 results. Those searches just use all of the words.

If we want all of the results for exactly “Fantasy Football Tiers 2021” or “Dynasty Fantasy Football Tiers 2021”, there are a more manageable number of results with about 14,600 and 14,400 respectively. However, if we want all of the results for exactly “Dynasty Owner Fantasy Football Tiers 2021”, we get the following screen:

This shouldn’t come as a surprise to returning Dynasty Owners. There isn’t anybody doing these rankings for Dynasty Owner because it’s much more difficult. After all, you need to factor in salaries as well as 2021 projected production and long-term projections. In a “regular” dynasty fantasy football league, you don’t have to worry about Patrick Mahomes’ new $45 million salary for the next 11 years, but Dynasty Owners do. Dynasty Owners also need to consider how much Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are going to make in 2022 when deciding whether to draft them or not. For all Dynasty Owners, we’re going to cover this new territory over the month of July with a series of articles about Dynasty Owner Fantasy Football Tiers 2021 (that’ll stop the above page from coming up). This week, it’s QBs followed by RBs, WRs and TEs. We won’t do any tiers for kickers, but Dynasty Owner uses them, and you’ll still need at least two of them and preferably three to account for the need for a Bench kicker on bye weeks.

All 2021 projections come from Rotowire and are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Average Draft Position (ADP) listed is from 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up drafts and was accurate as of the morning of July 6th.

These Tiers Go Up to Eleven

Dynasty Owner tiers are not the same as tiers for other fantasy football leagues or on other fantasy football websites. There are multiple factors to consider in Dynasty Owner including current salary, future salaries, 2021 projected stats and long-term potential. Dynasty Owners also need to have a Starting QB and Bench QB every week, so more QBs will be used by Dynasty Owners than in a single-QB league, or even a SuperFlex league. That’s why we have more tiers and more players listed than elsewhere.

Just like Nigel Tufnel’s amplifier, these tiers go up to 11. Of course, there are a couple of tiers with an “a” and “b” to really make it 13 tiers, but let’s not confuse matters. The QB tiers are:

  • Tier 1a – High Value Young QBs
  • Tier 1b – High Value Young QBs who Are Getting Paid Soon
  • Tier 2 – Low Value, but High Production Veterans
  • Tier 3 – High Potential Young QBs
  • Tier 4 – Young QBs who Need to Prove Something to Get Paid
  • Tier 5 – Low Salary QBs with Unclear Futures
  • Tier 6 – Veterans at the End of Their Careers on One-Year Contracts
  • Tier 7 – Veterans who Might Start in 2021 on One-Year Contracts
  • Tier 8 – Rookies with Future Potential
  • Tier 9 – Veteran Handcuffs
  • Tier 10a – Low Salary QBs on One Year Contracts so Why Not in Case They Play
  • Tier 10b – Low Salary QBs on Multi-Year Contracts so Why Not in Case They Play
  • Tier 11 – Veterans to Avoid Drafting Due to High Salaries

Tier 1a – High Value Young QBs

These are the elite QBs for a Dynasty Owner to have as all of them are young (24 or younger) and expected to put up plenty of Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021. They are still playing on their rookie contract that has multiple years left on it, so they have lots of value and a low Dynasty Dollar per Point (DD/PT) figure for at least two years.

Dynasty Owners are going to have to draft these five guys early in their 2021 start-up drafts as their current ADPs range from 8.3 to 43.9. In order from lowest (aka Best) DD/PT to highest, they are:

PlayerYearly SalaryYears2021 Projected Points2021 DD/PT
Jalen Hurts, PHI$1,506,2923422.5$3,565
Justin Herbert, LAC$6,644,6883461.8$14,389
Kyler Murray, ARI$8,914,5042473.8$18,815
Trevor Lawrence, JAC$9,198,3724434.1$21,190
Joe Burrow, CIN$9,047,5343418.9$21,598

The QB with the highest ADP (43.9) is Jalen Hurts who has the lowest projected points in 2021 (422.5) and the best DD/PT by far at $3,565 because of his salary of just slightly over $1.5 million. Kyler Murray is the only QB listed who was drafted in 2019 and only has two years left on his contract, while Trevor Lawrence is the only rookie QB in this elite tier.

Tier 1b – High Value Young QBs who Are Getting Paid Soon

In a “regular” dynasty league, this would be one tier as these two QBs would be combined with the five QBs in Tier 1a since salaries don’t matter. However, this is Dynasty Owner and the fact that Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are going to get huge salary increases in 2022 is very important since Dynasty Owners have to stay under the salary cap and those contract extensions will make it difficult to keep Allen or Jackson on your Dynasty Owner roster. To keep them, Dynasty Owners will likely be forced to drop other productive players for salary reasons. Even though they will get paid soon and have new 2022 salaries, they still have low ADPs (16.2 for Allen and 38.0 for Jackson) that will require Dynasty Owners who want them to draft them in the first couple of rounds.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears2021 Projected Points2021 DD/PT
Lamar Jackson, BAL$2,367,9121441.4$5,365
Josh Allen, BUF$5,295,7601493.1$10,740

Jackson is about twice as valuable since his salary is less than half as much as Allen. However, Allen is projected to score more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than Jackson in 2021 so if you want Allen, you’ll have to draft him earlier.

Tier 2 – Low Value, but High Production Veterans

While these guys are NFL veterans, age is not the reason they are on this list. The important factor is that they are on multi-year contracts that will pay them at least $25 million per year in salary. No more rookie contracts for these guys. They cost you a lot in salary, but they should provide plenty of Dynasty Owner fantasy points in return for that salary (at least 400.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021).

PlayerYearly SalaryYears2021 Projected Points2021 DD/PT
Tom Brady, TB$25,000,0001419.1$59,652
Matthew Stafford, LA$27,000,0002417.9$64,609
Ryan Tannehill, TEN$29,500,0003426.9$69,103
Aaron Rodgers, GB$33,500,0003451.4$74,214
Russell Wilson, SEA$35,000,0003448.9$77,968
Dak Prescott, DAL$40,000,0004479.7$83,385
Patrick Mahomes, KC$45,000,00011524.2$85,845
Deshaun Watson, HOU$39,000,0005401.4$97,160

The players at the top and bottom of this list need additional explanation. The G.O.A.T. (Tom Brady) is listed on Dynasty Owner as only having one year left on his contract, but he is signed with Tampa Bay through 2022 and plans on playing until then when he turns 45 years of age. Dynasty Owners can drop him free of charge after the 2021 season when his $25 million extension for the 2022 season kicks in if they want. Deshaun Watson is projected to score over 400.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021, but he might produce none in 2021 and future years due to his legal troubles. Dynasty Owners who draft Watson, or kept him on their roster when his new $39 million per year contract kicked in, should make sure they have an Amnesty Provision on hand to use in case he doesn’t play this year and they need to find another QB.

Tier 3 – High Potential Young QBs

These are the “potential” elite QBs who are just a step below the Tier 1a QBs since they are projected to score fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021 than the elite QBs. If you believe in one of these guys, you can draft him at a discount this year compared to the elite QBs as their ADPs range from 46.0 to 83.7 and maybe give him a year to develop since they all have two or more years left on their rookie contract.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears2021 Projected Points2021 DD/PT
Justin Fields, CHI$4,717,9884324.8$14,526
Daniel Jones, NYG$6,416,0142378.1$16,969
Mac Jones, NE$3,896,5884192.5$20,242
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA$7,568,8593315.6$23,982
Trey Lance, SF$8,526,3194305.7$27,891
Zach Wilson, NYJ$8,787,6704299.8$29,312

Four out of the six QBs listed here are rookies drafted in first half of the first round of the 2021 NFL draft. The others were also early first round picks, but in 2019 (Daniel Jones) and 2020 (Tua Tagovailoa). Daniel Jones is projected to score the most Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021, while Mac Jones is projected to score the fewest.

Tier 4 – Young QBs who Need to Prove Something to Get Paid

Tier 4 could have easily been combined with Tier 3 except for the looming one year left on each Tier 4 QB’s contract. They are a couple of tiers below fellow 2018 NFL first round draft picks Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson because they haven’t produced as many fantasy points as them and aren’t guaranteed to get paid. Both of them could have a great year in 2021, prove to their current team that they are worth a huge salary contract and get paid. Or, they could have a poor season, have their fifth year option declined and become a backup on a one-year contract like Mitchell Trubisky.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears2021 Projected Points2021 DD/PT
Sam Darnold, CAR$7,561,9291370.6$20,405
Baker Mayfield, CLE$8,170,7451384.5$21,250

Tier 5 – Low Salary QBs with Unclear Futures

None of the QBs on this list are the clear starter on their team and two are definitely going to be backups, but all of them have affordable salaries that make them attractive to Dynasty Owner. All of them are also worth owning for different additional reasons.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears2021 Projected Points2021 DD/PT
Gardner Minshew, JAC$677,7212111.1$6,100
Drew Lock, DEN$1,752,7042220.9$7,934
Jordan Love, GB$3,095,8633249.5$12,408
Brandon Allen, CIN$1,500,00010.0N/A 

Minshew is unlikely to play for Jacksonville, barring an injury to Trevor Lawrence, but his rock bottom $677,721 salary for two more years makes him attractive if Lawrence does get hurt, or if another team trades for him and gives him an opportunity to play. Drew Lock only has to beat out Teddy Bridgewater to be the starter in Denver. Jordan Love might be the starter in Green Bay, depending on the playing status of Aaron Rodgers, which makes him a solid speculative add even at the highest salary ($3.1 million) on this list. Finally, while Brandon Allen is projected to score zero Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021 and only has one year left on his contract, I added him to this tier because of the potential that Joe Burrow could miss the beginning of the 2021 season due to the injury he suffered that ended his 2020 season. If Allen plays even a game or two, Dynasty Owners would have a bargain at only $1.5 million in salary for 2021. He’s widely available now with only 11% ownership.

Tier 6 – Veterans at the End of Their Careers on One-Year Contracts

Both QBs in Tier 6 are likely in the final year of their careers since they are nearing 40 years of age. While each one has a double-digit million dollar salary, it’s a bargain relative to other veterans and they only have one year contracts. Both are projected to score fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points than the veteran QBs in Tier 2, but they will provide better value and cost at least $10 million less than the Tier 2 QBs.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears2021 Projected Points2021 DD/PT
Ryan Fitzpatrick, WAS$10,000,0001368.6$27,130
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT$14,000,0001320.6$43,668

Roethlisberger is probably the safer play out of the two despite the extra $4 million in salary since it’s unlikely the Steelers play one of the many other QBs on their roster over him. Fitzpatrick also has a couple of younger QBs on the Football Team roster to contend with, but it would be less surprising to see him yield time as the season progresses than Big Ben.

Tier 7 – Veterans who Might Start in 2021 on One-Year Contracts

This tier is one of the largest with seven QBs falling in it. The potential to start varies greatly as do the salaries and the projected value for 2021. None of them are signed beyond 2021, so they can be easily shed off your Dynasty Owner roster if they get injured or aren’t the starter for their team since you’ll only have to pay 25% of their remaining salary to drop them.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears2021 Projected Points2021 DD/PT
Blake Bortles, GB$1,075,000164.8$16,590
Cam Newton, NE$5,100,0001289.6$17,610
Jameis Winston, NO$5,500,0001307.6$17,880
Tyrod Taylor, HOU$5,500,0001194.6$28,263
Taysom Hill, NO$12,159,0001312.1$38,959
Teddy Bridgewater, DEN$11,499,0001249.2$46,144
Andy Dalton, CHI$10,000,0001200.2$49,950

The only player at a true low salary is Blake Bortles at $1.075 million. Of course, he’s the most unlikely to play any snaps in 2021. The three QBs in the $5 million range could all see significant time in 2021, but also might not depending on if they win a QB battle (Winston), can hold off a rookie first round pick (Newton) or the real starting QB on the team plays (Taylor). The stories are similar for the $10 million plus salary QBs. One needs to beat out another QB on this list (Hill), win a QB battle with a younger, cheaper QB (Bridgewater) or hold off a rookie first round pick (Dalton). Dynasty Owners are taking a chance with all of these guys in Tier 6, but fortunately they are all on one year contracts so there’s no long term commitment or large drop fees.

Tier 8 – Rookies with Future Potential

In terms of 2021 value, all of these players have next to none. Some of them are projected to score Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021, but don’t count on it. Davis Mills is the most likely, but he’ll need to beat out a couple of veterans in Tyrod Taylor and Jeff Driskel plus have Deshaun Watson out for the year to make that happen.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears
Kyle Trask, TB$1,383,8344
Kellen Mond, MIN$1,305,8544
Davis Mills, HOU$1,304,3834
Ian Book, NO$1,038,3964
Jacob Eason, IND$1,006,8163
Sam Ehlinger, IND$902,6774

Trask and Mills have very similar ADPs right now (152.6 for Mills; 152.8 for Trask), while Mond and Mills were drafted back-to-back at the beginning of the third round of the 2021 NFL draft, so their salaries are virtually identical. Trask’s salary is about $80,000 higher than both of them since he was the final pick in the second round. Technically, Jacob Eason isn’t a rookie, but he didn’t play at all in 2020 so this is the best tier for him. He’s here along with fellow Colts backup QB Sam Ehlinger who is indeed a rookie.

Tier 9 – Veteran Handcuffs

These QBs are also unlikely to play. Take a look at the list and think about the teams they play for, and you’ll know why. But, if you have the starter ahead of them of your Dynasty Owner roster, it could be worth paying a couple of million, or less in some cases, for these veteran handcuffs in case of an injury.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears
Case Keenum, CLE$6,000,0002
Jacoby Brissett, MIA$5,000,0001
Joe Flacco, PHI$3,500,0001
Marcus Mariota, LV$3,500,0001
Mitchell Trubisky, BUF$2,500,0001
Chad Henne, KC$1,625,0001
Colt McCoy, ARI$1,212,5001
Geno Smith, SEA$1,212,5001
Chase Daniel, LAC$1,075,0001

Out of the nine of them, Marcus Mariota is the most likely to play this year for Las Vegas. Case Keenum is the most expensive at $6 million and is the only one with two years left on his contract. That explains why he’s also unowned in Dynasty Owner right now. All of them are widely available with Trubisky having the highest ownership at 43%.

Tier 10a – Low Salary QBs on One Year Contracts so Why Not in Case They Play

This tier is filled with a bunch of QBs who make less than $1 million and probably won’t play in 2021. Some of them might not even be the backup. They could be the third string emergency QB. However, they don’t cost much and if the opportunity presents itself, all of them do have NFL experience. They are flyers for sure, but cheap ones and only have to be kept for 2021.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears
Mason Rudolph, PIT$980,4721
Nick Mullens, PHI$970,0001
Kyle Allen, WAS$850,0001
Dwayne Haskins, PIT$850,0001
Josh Rosen, SF$850,0001
Phillip Walker, CAR$782,5001
John Wolford, LA$770,0001

Mason Rudolph did sign a one-year extension for $5 million for 2022, but Dynasty Owners can always release him after that contract kicks in if they don’t want to keep him for 2022. Nick Mullens might still be listed as a Free Agent with a $750,000 salary, but he signed with Philadelphia for almost $1 million in mid-June.

Tier 10b – Low Salary QBs on Multi-Year Contracts so Why Not in Case They Play

Another “b” tier as all of these guys would be in the same tier in a “regular” dynasty league, except for that extra year on their current contract. That makes them a bit more expensive than the Tier 10a guys so slightly less valuable in Dynasty Owner.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears
C.J. Beathard, JAC$2,500,0002
Taylor Heinicke, WAS$2,375,0002
Will Grier, CAR$963,2492
Jarrett Stidham, NE$788,4232

Heinicke has the most likely path to playing time in Washington, which is why he’s 81% owned in Dynasty Owner and you’ll need to draft him in the later stages (ADP 223.2) of your start-up draft if you want to secure his services. Jarrett Stidham is owned in 42% of Dynasty Owner leagues, but that’s probably because Dynasty Owners took him in 2020 drafts when it was expected that he was the starter in New England. Many of these owners probably didn’t release him since his salary is low and he did play some in 2020.

Tier 11 – Veterans to Avoid Drafting Due to High Salaries

None of these guys are worth drafting in your 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up draft. They cost too much, are projected to finish outside of the Top 12 QBs in 2021, have more than one year left on their contract and will produce fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points than other veteran QBs at similar salaries (see Tier 2). If you have one on these players on your roster already, they will cost you an Amnesty Provision or lots of Dynasty Dollars to drop so they could be worth keeping around since all of them are projected to start in 2021 (at least at the beginning of the season). They might have a renaissance season, like Aaron Rodgers did in 2020, and end up being worth their contract.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears2021 Projected Points2021 DD/PT
Derek Carr, LV$25,000,0002372.9$67,042
Matt Ryan, ATL$30,000,0003393.0$76,336
Kirk Cousins, MIN$33,000,0002394.8$83,587
Carson Wentz, IND$32,000,0004368.3$86,886
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF$27,500,0002278.8$98,637
Jared Goff, DET$33,500,0004301.3$111,185

Not surprisingly, none of them are owned in more than one-quarter of Dynasty Owner leagues with Carr having the highest ownership (25%), along with the lowest salary in the tier at $25 million. Kirk Cousins has the lowest ownership at less than 1% (.81% to be exact). For the 2.4% of Dynasty Owners with Jared Goff, he’s projected as the #30 QB in 2021 and to have the highest DD/PT by far, as the only starting QB with a projected 2021 DD/PT of over $100,000.

Conclusion

There you have it. The first Dynasty Owner Tiers. No more zero matches when you search for Dynasty Owner Fantasy Football Tiers 2021. Depending on how you count them, it was either 11 or 13 of them. And we didn’t even include a couple of QBs who might play and find their way on to a few Dynasty Owner rosters this year (Mike Glennon, Jeff Driskel, etc.). More tiers to come for the other positions (RB, WR and TE) for the rest of July. Let me know what you think of these QB tiers on Twitter (@SteveVT33) or in the comments section on YouTube.

Dynasty Owner has great content coming to help you draft your dynasty. We can also provide guidance as you continue to tweak your roster after your rookie or start-up draft is over so you can win your league. My articles and videos to get you ready for your 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up league team are being released on Wednesdays. Keep an eye out for new articles from the rest of our team of Dynasty Owner writers as well. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) is doing a deep dive on individual teams that you can check out on Mondays, while Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl) looks at how to rebuild your Dynasty Owner roster on Fridays. All of the articles will be released at 1 PM (Eastern) with videos and podcast released at 3 PM (Eastern).

Please read all of their articles and follow all three of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter. Hopefully this article is helpful for everyone who has a 2021 start-up draft coming soon, and at least interesting for those of you who have already drafted or have an established team. Maybe it’ll give you and other Dynasty Owners some ideas for potential trades too. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Top Dynasty Owner QB-WR Stacks

By Steven Van Tassell

Let’s continue with trying to help everyone win their Dynasty Owner League Championship by analyzing stacking a bit more and tackling the far more common practice of stacking a top tier QB and WR. As mentioned in last week’s article on Top QB-TE stacks (https://9jn.41d.myftpupload.com/2021/06/top-dynasty-owner-qb-te-stacks/), stacking is a tried and true fantasy football strategy, but one that is more difficult in Dynasty Owner than a typical redraft or dynasty league because of Dynasty Owner’s use of salaries and a salary cap – just like in the NFL. If you’re not familiar with stacking, then check out that article for an explanation.

As mentioned in last week’s article, our 2020 Chase for the Ring Champion Viktor and his Barbee Kilgore team (League #35395) had a three-player stack from the Kansas City Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. In a “regular” dynasty league, Viktor would have kept that trio for years and years. However, because of the increase in Mahomes’ salary from just over $4.1 million in 2020 to $45 million in 2021, he can’t afford this three-player stack anymore in 2021 and had to drop Mahomes for free and traded Tyreek Hill away. It’s a shame for Viktor, but good news for the other teams in his league and another thing that makes Dynasty Owner so much different than any other dynasty league.

This week’s article will focus on QB-WR stacks. Just like the previous article, in order to be listed as a stack, the duo had to have at least 300.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points with the QB scoring at least 200.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and the WR scoring at least 100.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the 13-game Dynasty Owner regular season. A total of 41 QB-WR combinations qualified based on these criteria, which is significantly more than the number of QB-TE stacks.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

For the purposes of this article, all 2020 statistics listed are from the Dynasty Owner regular season (Weeks 1 – 13). Projected statistics for 2021 are provided by Rotowire, posted on the Dynasty Owner app and website, and taken from the Mock Draft lobby at Noon on June 22nd. Salaries listed are from the 2020 and 2021 Dynasty Owner season respectively.

The Top and Best Value QB-WR Stack of 2020

Because the top QB-TE stack was Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, it shouldn’t be surprising that the top QB-WR stack of 2020 was Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill. The duo combined for 703.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 13 Dynasty Owner regular season games, an average of 54.1 points per game. Unlike the Mahomes-Kelce which performed at a high level nearly every week, the Mahomes-Hill stack was more up and down with a high of 108.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 12 and three more weeks of 60.0 or more points. On the flip side, they scored less than 50.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points five times and less than 40.0 points twice.

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT*
Patrick MahomesQBKC$4,106,447423.1$9,706
Tyreek HillWRKC$18,000,000279.9$64,309
TOTALS  $22,106,447703.0$31,446

* DD/PT stands for Dynasty Dollars per Point (2020 Salary divided by Points)

Even though their salaries were over $22 million in total, the Dynasty Dollars per Point (DD/PT) value was only $31,446 which ranked as the 8th best QB-WR value in 2020. Of course, because of Mahomes’ salary increase to $45 million for 2021, last season was the last chance for Mahomes and any WR to be a top value for quite a while.

Not only was Patrick Mahomes involved in the top scoring QB-WR stack he was also involved in the best value stack. All Dynasty Owners are striving for value because of the salary cap and the best value stack of 2020 was Mahomes and Mecole Hardman. Hardman barely finished with enough Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2020 to qualify as he only had 102.6 points, or 7.9 points per game. Similar to Hill, he was very up and down as he only scored more than 10.0 points in four out of 13 games.

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT
Patrick MahomesQBKC$4,106,447423.1$9,706
Mecole HardmanWRKC$1,248,763102.6$12,171
TOTALS  $5,355,210525.7$10,187

Overall, the Mahomes-Hardman stack was good for a total of 525.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and a DD/PT value of only $10,187. Due to the increase in Mahomes’ salary to $45 million for 2021, the Mahomes-Hardman stack is definitely not going to be the best value in 2021. However, the Mahomes-Hill stack could possibly be the top scoring one again albeit at a cost of $63 million in 2021, or almost half of the entire 2021 salary cap of $127.75 million.

Other Top Scoring QB-WR Stacks of 2020 and Likely 2021

The top seven scoring QB-WR stacks of 2020, including Mahomes-Hill, are still intact for the 2021 season. This is pretty different from the QB-TE stacks in which only three of the top six stacks are still together. All seven of these QB-WR stacks scored over 550.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points combined (42.3 points per game) and six of them had more than 590.0 points (45.4 points per game). Out of the remaining six stacks, all but one of them will also have the same combined salary in 2021 as they did in 2020. The only exception is Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins of the Arizona Cardinals as Hopkins’ salary is increasing by a little over $11 million.

If those combinations can do it again in 2021, then Dynasty Owners would be advised to go draft Josh Allen and pair him up with either Stefon Diggs or Cole Beasley. Diggs will give your more Dynasty Owner fantasy points, but Beasley is the better value because his contract is almost half as much as Diggs’ ($7.25 million for Beasley versus $14.4 million for Diggs).

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT
Josh AllenQBBUF$5,295,760377.2$14,040
Stefon DiggsWRBUF$14,400,000220.7$65,247
TOTALS  $19,695,760597.9$32,942

Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs will cost just under $20 million in 2021, but likely much more in 2021 after Allen either gets a new contract or plays for his fifth year option of $23.02 million. Either way, he’ll cost more in 2022 and they won’t provide nearly as much value as they did in 2020 ($32,942 DD/PT) or could provide in 2021 at their current salaries.

For those Dynasty Owners who have Allen but not Diggs, they could pair Allen up with Cole Beasley who still has two years left on his $7.25 million annual salary. That pairing scored 42.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game compared to 46.0 points for Allen and Diggs, but costs less on a per point basis.

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT
Josh AllenQBBUF$5,295,760377.2$14,040
Cole BeasleyWRBUF$7,250,000176.7$41,030
TOTALS  $12,545,760553.9$22,650

Of course, Beasley is threatening to retire due to his belief that the NFL COVID-19 protocols are not fair to unvaccinated players. If this happens then that potential 2021 value stack is no longer.

Two of the top scoring 2020 stacks (Russell Wilson and DK Metcalf of Seattle and Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins of Arizona) will cost Dynasty Owners just over $36 million in 2021, or about 28% of the $127.75 million salary cap. Each one produced around 600.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the 2020 regular season and are projected to have a similar number of points in 2021. As a result, both will provide similar value in 2021.

PlayerPositionTeam2021 Salary2021 Projected2021 DD / PT
Kyler MurrayQBARI$8,789,661473.8$18,551
DeAndre HopkinsWRARI$27,250,000306.9$88,791
TOTALS  $36,039,661780.7$46,163
PlayerPositionTeam2021 Salary2021 Projected2021 DD / PT
Russell WilsonQBSEA$35,000,000460.4$76,021
DK MetcalfWRSEA$1,146,513305.5$3,753
TOTALS  $36,146,513765.9$47,195

The other two QB-WR stacks which both produced over 590.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2020 are from the Green Bay Packers (Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams) and Seattle Seahawks (Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett). Both cost about $75,000 DD/PT in 2020 with Rodgers-Adams providing more Dynasty Owner fantasy points (648.3 versus 591.7 for Wilson-Lockett) and slightly better value ($74,040 for Rodgers-Adams versus $76,475 for Wilson-Lockett). While both QBs have three more years left at their current salary, Adams will be a free agent in 2022 and is extremely likely make more than his current $14.5 million salary and Lockett has signed an extension that will increase his salary in 2022 by $7 million. Both stacks should produce plenty of Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021 (provided Rodgers plays for Green Bay), but will be more expensive to own than the other QB-WR stacks that produced a similar number of points in 2020 and are projected to do the same in 2021.

Any Good Value Stacks for 2021 and Beyond?

As mentioned before, the top QB-WR value stack from 2020 is no longer a value with Patrick Mahomes’ salary increasing to $45 million. The second best value stack of 2020 is also not intact as Texans QB Deshaun Watson got a salary increase to $39 million and WR Will Fuller also got a salary increase, but had to go to Miami to get his $10.625 million salary. The Watson-Fuller stack only cost $11,018 DD/PT in 2020 and the only other QB-WR stack that cost less than $20,000 DD/PT consisted of Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown (386.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, $5.315 million in salary, $13,740 DD/PT). However, with 2021 being the last year of Jackson’s rookie deal and the Ravens bringing in new WRs who should overtake Brown as the top WR in Baltimore, that’s not an advisable long-term stacking option.

The sad fact is that there aren’t any value QB-WR stacks that appear to be rock solid for 2021 and beyond. Either the QB is too expensive, such as Justin Jefferson being paired up with Kirk Cousins and his $33 million salary, or the WR is too expensive, such as Justin Herbert having his top WR be Keenan Allen who has an annual salary of $20.025 million. The teams with rookie QBs such as Jacksonville, New York, San Francisco, Chicago and New England all don’t have a single clear top WR option to pair with that QB.

  • In Jacksonville, it could be D.J. Chark (1 year, $1.112 million) or Laviska Shenault (3 years, $1.924 million) who is the top WR in 2021 for Trevor Lawrence, or maybe it’s veteran Marvin Jones (2 years, $6.25 million). Which one (or two) of those three WRs do you choose as the stack?
  • Zach Wilson could throw the ball a lot to either Elijah Moore (4 years, $2.235 million) or Denzel Mims (3 years, $1.36 million) and provide plenty of value. However, the Jets also gave a big contract to Corey Davis (3 years, $12.5 million) and if he becomes Wilson’s top option, the Wilson-Davis stack not nearly as affordable or valuable.
  • Trey Lance has two great low-cost WRs to throw to in San Francisco with Deebo Samuel (2 years, $1.81 million) and Brandon Aiyuk (3 years, $3.13 million), but if TE George Kittle (5 years, $15 million) is healthy, he’s probably the real #1 receiver on the team.
  • Chicago has Allen Robinson as the clear WR1, but he’s on a 1 year, $17.88 million deal so he’s expensive and might not be in Chicago long enough to pair up with Justin Fields. Darnell Mooney (3 years, $894,263) could be the long-term option, but that stack likely won’t be star caliber in 2021.
  • If Mac Jones becomes the starter in New England, it looks like his top receiving options are either expensive TEs in Jonnu Smith (4 years, $12.5 million) and Hunter Henry (3 years, $12.5 million). Out of the WR corps, only Kendrick Bourne is signed for more than two years (3 years, $5 million) so he’s the only long-term affordable option.

If we expand the QB pool to second year QBs, then we have a few more options, but three of those guys (Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts) don’t have a clear WR1. Justin Herbert does, it’s just that Keenan Allen makes $20.025 million per year, so their combined salaries are almost $27 million. For the other three teams, it’s take your pick on who’s going to be the top WR.

  • Cincinnati has three WRs on long-term deals. Tyler Boyd (3 years, $10.75 million), Ja’Marr Chase (4 years, $7.55 million) and Tee Higgins (3 years, $2.17 million) are all quality WRs, but which one (or two) do you pick to stack with Joe Burrow?
  • Miami also has a lot of WRs. Will Fuller (1 year, $10.625 million) is expensive Both Davante Parker (3 years, $7.625 million) and Jaylen Waddle (4 years, $6.77 million) are lower cost and signed for as long as Tua, but which one of them is going to be better is an open question.
  • Jalen Hurts is the cheapest QB option out there at only $1.51 million, but his WRs weren’t very good last year and TE Dallas Goedert might be his top receiver. Both Jalen Reagor (3 years, $3.318 million) or rookie DeVonta Smith (4 years, $5.035 million) might be the WR1 for the Eagles in 2021 and beyond, but nobody is sure which one it will be.

There are so many options that it’s difficult to make the correct prediction and get both players on their rookie deals. If you make the correct selection, your Dynasty Owner team could have a great value QB-WR stack for several seasons. If you don’t choose the correct pairing, it won’t cost a lot of money but might waste a couple of prime years with a QB on a valuable rookie contract.

Conclusions

There are so many possible QB-WR stacks. This article only scratched the surface of the ones that could help lead your Dynasty Owner team to a title (and maybe a spot on the Chase for the Ring leaderboard). While there are several options that should produce lots of Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021, most of them are expensive already.

In terms of value, the sheer number of possibilities make it difficult to project the best value QB-WR stacks for 2021 and beyond. Dynasty Owners are left with a choice – choose a likely guaranteed high scoring stack at a premium salary, or try and determine which young QB-WR combination will be the second coming of Joe Montana and Jerry Rice. It’s not as easy as it looks!

Dynasty Owner has great content coming to help you draft your dynasty. We can also provide guidance as you continue to tweak your roster after your rookie or start-up draft is over so you can win your league. My articles and videos to get you ready for your 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up league team will be released now on Wednesdays. Keep an eye out for new articles from the rest of our team of Dynasty Owner writers as well. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) is doing a deep dive on individual teams that you can check out earlier on in the week now as they will appear on Mondays. Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl) looks at how to rebuild your Dynasty Owner roster and everyone will still get his insights on Fridays. All of the articles and videos will be released at 1 PM (Eastern).

Please read all of their articles and follow all three of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter. Hopefully this article is helpful for everyone who has a 2021 start-up draft coming soon, and at least interesting and stirs up some trade thoughts for those of you who have already drafted or have an established team. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Top Dynasty Owner QB-TE Stacks

By Steven Van Tassell

Rookie drafts are finished for most established Dynasty Owner leagues and in the third round for the rest (I’ve got one finished and one still at pick 3.04). It’s also possible that there are some leagues still in the second round if teams in your league are milking the 24-hour clock, but that’s another story entirely. Regardless of your rookie draft status, it’s time to go back and look at how to draft your 2021 start-up Dynasty Owner team.

One of the best ways to start your dynasty is to draft a QB and receiver (WR or TE) from the same NFL team. For those of you unfamiliar with the term, this is called “stacking” and it’s something that a lot of fantasy analysts preach, and fantasy players try to do with their teams. Stacking a top QB with a top WR or top TE is a tried and true strategy, but in Dynasty Owner, stacking isn’t as easy as in your typical redraft or dynasty league. Adding in salaries makes it more difficult to stack players in Dynasty Owner because some stacks are prohibitive expensive and not worth the money. In addition, it’s difficult to keep both players in a stack as their salaries increase.

The benefits of stacking are pretty great. If your QB throws a TD pass to your WR or TE, you get 6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for the QB and the receiver. You’re doubling your production on just one play! The drawbacks are that if one of those players goes down to injury or is unproductive, you’ve possibly focused a good portion of your starting lineup or salary cap on a pair of players who aren’t producing. Last year’s Chase for the Ring Champion Viktor and his Barbee Kilgore team (League #35395) had a three-player stack from the Kansas City Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. All three players performed tremendously all season and finished as the full season as QB3, WR2 and TE1 for the entire 2020 season. They are projected to be QB1, WR1 and TE1 this season, so it would seem like a great strategy to stack the three of them again in 2021. However, because of salaries increases for Mahomes and Kelce, Viktor can’t afford this stack anymore in 2021. He had to drop Mahomes for free when his new $45 million salary for 2021 kicked in and traded Tyreek Hill away, but kept Kelce and his new $14.3 million salary.

This never would have happened in a “regular” dynasty league, but in Dynasty Owner, it’s what teams need to do to stay under the salary cap and still be competitive. The Mahomes-Hill-Kelce stack was only $31.475 million in 2020, or 28% of the $112 million salary cap. In 2021, those guys will cost you $77.3 million, or over three-fifths of the $127.75 million cap. In order to have Mahomes, Hill and Kelce this year, you’d only have a little over $50 million left for the remaining 22-27 players on your Dynasty Owner roster. In contrast, Viktor still had just over $80 million in salary left last year for the rest of his Chase for the Ring winning team.

Since there are so many players to stack and we need to look back at 2020 and forward to 2021, this article will focus only on QB-TE stacks. In order to be listed as a stack, the duo had to have at least 300.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points with the QB scoring at least 200.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and the TE scoring at least 100.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the 13-game Dynasty Owner regular season. This is to ensure that both players are worthy of owning. While it’s possible to stack Buffalo QB Josh Allen with TE Dawson Knox, Knox only scored 36.0 points in the Dynasty Owner regular season. Similarly, Broncos TE Noah Fant didn’t have consistent QB play during the season and QB Drew Lock only had 129.4 points in the Dynasty Owner regular season. Neither one of those stacks are listed as a result.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

For the purposes of this article, all 2020 statistics listed are from the Dynasty Owner regular season (Weeks 1 – 13). Projected statistics for 2021 are provided by Rotowire, posted on the Dynasty Owner app and website, and taken from the Mock Draft lobby at Noon on June 15th. Salaries listed are from the 2020 and 2021 Dynasty Owner season respectively.

Top QB-TE Stack of 2020

It should come as no surprise that the top QB-TE stack of 2020 was Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. The duo combined for a whopping 664.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 13 Dynasty Owner regular season games, an average of 51.1 points per game. They performed at a high level nearly every week with a low of 22.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 7, and a high of 79.7 points in Week 8. Only four times in 13 weeks did they score less than 50.0 points combined.

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT*
Patrick MahomesQBKC$4,106,447423.1$9,706
Travis KelceTEKC$9,368,400241.6$38,776
TOTALS  $13,474,847664.7$20,272

* DD/PT stands for Dynasty Dollars per Point (2020 Salary divided by Points)

Due to their 2020 salaries being pretty low (less than $13.5 million combined), they only cost $20,272 per point. Only one QB-TE duo had a lower DD/PT amount in 2020. We will get to that later in the article.

Basically, the Mahomes-Kelce QB-TE stack was the one to have in Dynasty Owner in 2020 from a points and value standpoint. However, as detailed earlier, this is not likely to be the case on the value side in 2021 as Mahomes’ salary rockets up to $45 million in 2021 and Kelce’s also increases by nearly $5 million up to $14.3 million.

Other Top QB-TE Stacks of 2020

Overall, there were a total of 10 QB-TE stacks that produced at least 300.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points with 200.0 or more points from the QB and 100.0 or more points from the TE. The second ranked QB-TE stack was unlikely to be drafted by many Dynasty Owners, but proved to be very productive. It was the Green Bay duo of Aaron Rodgers and Robert Tonyan.

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT
Aaron RodgersQBGB$33,500,000386.4$86,698
Robert TonyanTEGB$750,000138.7$5,407
TOTALS  $34,250,000525.1$65,226

In terms of points, they finished second with 525.1, or 40.4 per game. That’s 10.7 fewer points per game than Mahomes and Kelce. In addition, they cost over three times as much on a per point basis ($65,226 per point) and 2.5 times as much in salary, basically because of Rodgers’ $33.5 million salary.

The next six QB-TE stacks all had over 400.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points combined, but none provided as much value as Mahomes and Kelce. The closest combination was Justin Herbert and Hunter Henry from the Los Angeles Chargers who scored 427.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (32.8 per game) for only $17.25 million in salary. However, they were still almost twice as expensive on a per point basis.

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT
Justin HerbertQBLAC$6,644,688309.3$21,483
Hunter HenryTELAC$10,607,000117.7$90,119
TOTALS  $17,251,688427.0$40,402

However, if your Dynasty Owner team had both Herbert and Henry in 2020, it’s not a stack anymore as Henry has moved on in free agency to the New England Patriots. The same is true for two other stacks that produced very similar points in 2020 (Matthew Stafford-T.J. Hockenson from Detroit and Ryan Tannehill-Jonnu Smith from Tennessee).

Best QB-TE Value Stack of 2020 (and 2021?)

In terms of value, which is what all Dynasty Owners are striving for because of the salary cap, the Baltimore Ravens pairing of Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews is difficult to beat. They may have only finished with only 382.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2020 (29.4 points per game), but their cost per point was the lowest at $8,441.

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT
Lamar JacksonQBBAL$2,367,912265.4$8,922
Mark AndrewsTEBAL$863,290117.4$7,353
TOTALS  $3,231,202382.8$8,441

Both players returned value with DD/PT amounts of under $10,000. That’s what happens when the two players make a combined salary of $3.231 million, or less than one-tenth of what Aaron Rodgers costs on his own.

But is it likely to be the best value stack of 2021? If both Jackson and Andrews stay relatively healthy and productive, since the salaries for both of them will be the same in 2021, it seems likely. That won’t be the case in 2022 as both players will be free agents and make significantly more in salary.

Projected Top QB-TE Stacks of 2021

Not surprisingly, the top scoring stack of 2021 is projected to be Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce with 798.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

PlayerPositionTeam2021 Salary2021 Projected2021 DD / PT
Patrick MahomesQBKC$45,000,000524.2$85,845
Travis KelceTEKC$14,312,500274.0$52,235
TOTALS  $59,312,500798.2$74,308

However, their new, higher salaries make their value not as great as 2020 as they will cost their Dynasty Owner $74,308 per point in 2021 if they hit their projections. That’s nearly four times as much as 2020.

In terms of projected points scored though, they are difficult to top as no other QB-TE combination is expected to be within 100.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points of Mahomes and Kelce. There are a lot of potential stacks projected to score between 600.0 and 660.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021 and a few of them could be much better values than Mahomes-Kelce.

The first one is our top value stack of 2020 in Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews. As noted before, their salaries will be the same in 2021, but their production is projected to increase and thus make them even more valuable in 2021.

PlayerPositionTeam2021 Salary2021 Projected2021 DD / PT
Lamar JacksonQBBAL$2,367,912436.1$5,430
Mark AndrewsTEBAL$863,290222.5$3,880
TOTALS  $3,231,202658.6$4,906

The Ravens QB-TE stack is projected to only cost $4,906 per point in 2021, which is over $3,500 less per point than they did in 2020 when they were the best value stack in Dynasty Owner.

Believe it or not, they aren’t even projected to be the best value in 2021. That honor goes to Jalen Hurts and Dallas Goedert of the Philadelphia Eagles who will make slightly less than $3 million combined and are projected to score almost as many points as Jackson and Andrews.

PlayerPositionTeam2021 Salary2021 Projected2021 DD / PT
Jalen HurtsQBPHI$1,506,292422.5$3,565
Dallas GoedertTEPHI$1,406,068204.9$6,862
TOTALS  $2,912,360627.4$4,642

Hurts and Goedert together are projected to cost their Dynasty Owners only $4,642 per point in 2021. They will be about $300,000 in salary less than Jackson and Andrews and are projected to produce only 31.2 fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points. While Hurts is locked up with the Eagles through the 2023 season, Goedert can be a free agent in 2022, which possibly makes this a one-year only stack.

For Dynasty Owners looking for a long-term QB-TE stack, the combination to draft might just be Bears QB Justin Fields and TE Cole Kmet.  Both are barely projected to finish in the Top 25 at their respective position in Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021 and they will cost twice as much as either Jackson-Andrews or Hurts-Goedert. However, you’ll have them for a few years as Kmet doesn’t hit free agency until 2024 and Fields isn’t a free agent until the 2025 season. Their 2021 projected scoring isn’t that impressive, and their 2021 value is almost $10,000 more than the other two stacks, but they could be a great value as a duo for the next three seasons.

PlayerPositionTeam2021 Salary2021 Projected2021 DD / PT
Justin FieldsQBCHI$4,717,988324.8$14,526
Cole KmetTECHI$1,894,444139.6$13,571
TOTALS  $6,612,432464.4$14,239

They could be the next Mahomes-Kelce, or not pan out, like Broncos QB Drew Lock and TE Noah Fant so far in their careers. Dynasty Owners willing to take a chance will have several years to find out.

Conclusions

As you can see, there are many ways to stack a QB-TE in Dynasty Owner. While the Mahomes-Kelce combination will likely yield you the most points in 2021 as they did in 2020, it comes at a greater cost which could limit the rest of your Dynasty Owner roster. Going for value, such as Jackson-Andrews last year and in 2021, might not score your team as many points, but you’ll have lots of salary cap room for other great players who can contribute. Unfortunately, that stack will only be valuable for 2021 and then could end up costing close to as much as Mahomes and Kelce in 2022 and beyond.

Justin Herbert and Hunter Henry were a good duo in 2020 and provided decent value, but they aren’t on the same team in 2021 due to free agency. That could happen to a projected 2021 value duo like Jalen Hurts and Dallas Goedert (or even Jackson and Andrews) next year. They might break up and be on separate teams, or Goedert might stay but cost his Dynasty Owners a lot more in salary.

Dynasty Owner has great content coming to help you draft your dynasty. We can also provide guidance as you continue to tweak your roster after your rookie or start-up draft is over so you can win your league. My articles and videos to get you ready for your 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up league team will be released now on Wednesdays. Keep an eye out for new articles from the rest of our team of Dynasty Owner writers as well. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) is doing a deep dive on individual teams that you can check out earlier on in the week now as they will appear on Mondays. Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl) looks at how to rebuild your Dynasty Owner roster and everyone will still get his insights on Fridays. All of the articles and videos will be released at 1 PM (Eastern).

Please read all of their articles and follow all three of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter. Hopefully this article is helpful for everyone who has a 2021 start-up draft coming soon, and at least interesting and stirs up some trade thoughts for those of you who have already drafted or have an established team. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

League Winners and Playoff Predictions

By: Matt “TheJerk” Morrison (@DynastyJerk)

This is what we’ve all been waiting for.  The time has finally come.  We are officially in the Dynasty Owner Playoffs.  Some of you that are reading this have been eliminated from the playoffs and the Chase for the Ring, but there are also many teams who have grinded their way to a shot at the title.  If you have been eliminated, this article may still help you in the short term and here is why…

Don’t forget that the winner and runner up of the Loser’s Bracket receive a prize.  If you are victorious from the loser’s side of the bracket, you will receive a bonus draft pick that will be at the end of the 1st round of the 2021 rookie draft (Pick #13), and one Amnesty Provision.  The runner up in the Loser’s Bracket receives one Amnesty Provision.  The point is that if you have been eliminated from the overall top prize, don’t give up on the season until you have been eliminated from all prizes.

With the Dynasty Owner postseason starting, that means all trades and Free Agent Auction transactions have halted.  You are no longer able to improve your team through outside sources.  Everything that you do to change your team for the rest of the season will have to be internal.  For this reason, I will no longer be talking about trade targets, free agent finds, or under/over owned players.  All of these topics still matter for Dynasty Owner, but they won’t affect how you play for the remainder of the season.  Think about it this way…

We know that Dynasty Owner is the most realistic fantasy platform ever created.  We marry players to their real-life salaries and through that marriage, we can find value that otherwise doesn’t exist on other fantasy sites.  However, once our rosters are locked and we start the postseason, the salaries tend to matter less.  Now that we are entrenched in the playoffs, the best team is going to win their league.  The team with the best players that score the most points is going to win leagues.  It’s actually a very refreshing feeling (at least for me).  We spend all season trying to figure out value and which player’s salary can be moved or traded, but in the playoffs, all we have to worry about is setting our best lineup regardless of the salaries.  So today I present to you…

TheJerk’s League Winners

The League Winners are an assortment of five players that, in my opinion, are going to win Dynasty Owner’s their championship.  As I stated before, your roster is locked so there is no use in looking to trade for any of these players, but if you happen to find them on your roster, they should be started for the duration of your postseason run.

Justin Herbert (4-Years – $6,644,688/YR)

Herbert makes this list as somewhat of a “chalky” pick.  He is currently ranked QB9 on the season in Dynasty Owner, and he is on pace to smash Baker Mayfield’s rookie record of 27 touchdown passes.  He will also, no doubt, make a run for Andrew Luck’s rookie record of 4,374 passing yards.  (Herbert is on pace for 31 touchdown passes and 4,298 passing yards.)  Whether Justin ultimately takes down these records is still to be seen, but, as I stated, he has been just as impressive for Dynasty Owner managers who took a shot on him in the draft.  It’s not a secret that you are starting Herbert every week despite the matchup, but it is nice to know that he (statistically) has the easiest next three weeks of any quarterback in the league.  Let me break it down…

Herbert finishes his fantasy season by playing Atlanta (Week 14), Las Vegas (Week 15) and Denver (Week 16).  All three of these teams have been generous to opposing game managers throughout the season as they all rank bottom third in the NFL for fantasy points given up to quarterbacks.  Denver and Atlanta have been playing better defense as of late, but they are still able to be exploited by this rising young quarterback.  In addition, the game scripts for all three of these games should be in favor of Herbert.  Aside from last week, the Chargers have been very good at keeping games close.  In ten of their twelve games played, they have won or been within one score.  They do not get blown out very often.  In addition, the Falcons and Raiders have won or lost within one score in nine out out of their twelve games.  The Broncos have either won or lost within one score in eight out of their twelve games.  The point is…these next three games for the Chargers should be competitive, and they should be conducive to fantasy production by Herbert.

This is how confident I am in Herbert for your Championship run.  If you told me that I had to pick a single quarterback to start for the next three weeks, (I couldn’t switch him out with a bench quarterback) these are the only players I’d pick over Herbert…

  • Mahomes
  • Wilson
  • Rodgers

That’s the list.

There are quarterbacks I like over Herbert for individual matchups (D. Watson vs Cincinnati in Week 16 for example), but only three that I would take for the remainder of the season.  Despite his last two weeks being two of the worst three weeks of his season, he needs to be started in almost all playoff matchups.  The bold prediction for Herbert is…

Justin Herbert’s Final Three Games:

  • 967 passing yards – 2 INT – 8 passing touchdowns
  • 60 rushing yards – 1 rushing touchdown

Derrick Henry (1-Year – $10,278,000)

Okay, yes, I know that this is an absolute no brainer, but hear me out.  Derrick Henry is going to win a lot of people fantasy championships this year, but he’s also going to do a lot more than that.  Henry is going to be the #1 running back over the next three weeks by a good amount.  Here is where King Henry sits after Week 13…

He is the RB3 on the season for Dynasty Owner.  He trails only Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara.  Henry has 286 touches for 1,419 total yards with 12 touchdowns.  He has four multi score games this season, and I expect that number to rise.  First, I’ll give you Henry’s next three matchups, and then I’ll drop a bold prediction about how he’s going to finish the season.  Henry has the “easiest” next three weeks of any player in the NFL.  When I say easiest, I don’t presume to say that what Henry does is easy.  What I’m saying is that the next three teams he’s playing are all in the bottom fourth of fantasy points given up to opposing running backs.  Henry is about to play Jacksonville (Week 14), Detroit (Week 15), and Green Bay (Week 16).  That is as good as it gets.  For reference, here is what each team has given up on the ground over the past three weeks.

  • Jacksonville: 153 rushing yards/game
  • Detroit: 111 rushing yards/game
  • Green Bay:  126 rushing yards/game

There will be many opportunities for long runs for Henry during these playoffs.  The Titans rank fourth in the NFL in rushing percentage per play at 48.39%.  Henry is an absolute smash play for the rest of the season, and here is my bold prediction on his stat line.

Derrick Henry’s Final Three Games:

  • 68 rushes – 399 total yards – 7 touchdowns

That prediction puts him at 27.3 fantasy points per game, and I think it’s very possible.  Start Henry with confidence and pray that you don’t face the owner that has him.

David Montgomery (4-Years – $1,003,845/YR)

Montgomery has had a high floor, low ceiling season up until Week 12 and 13.  Through his first nine games he averaged 12.2 fantasy points per game.  In those nine games, his lowest performance was 4.2 points, and his highest was 21.7.  Every other game he played in he was somewhere between 7.4 and 18.9 fantasy points.  He has been very reliable.  Well, following Chicago’s Week 11 bye, Montgomery has come out and put up back-to-back 27-point performances.  He is peaking at the perfect time if you own him, and his schedule remains easy throughout Week 17.  Montgomery does not have a “Derrick Henry Cake Walk Schedule”, but he is facing a couple of the most favorable matchups possible.  He is slated to face Houston (Week 14), Minnesota (Week 15), and Jacksonville (Week 16).  I’m not going to go through the whole breakdown like I did with Henry, but none of these three matchups should scare Montgomery owners.  Houston and Jacksonville should be extremely comfortable for Montgomery owners.  Minnesota has been better lately, but they are still a bottom half rush defense.  Montgomery’s production isn’t what worries me.  What I’m concerned about is the chance that Chicago gets down early in a least a couple of these games and abandons the rush.  Even with that possibility, Montgomery has pulled in nine receptions over the past two games.  He should without a doubt be started in all leagues.  Bold predictions for Montgomery…

David Montgomery’s Final Three Games:

  • 52 rushes – 285 total yards – 4 touchdowns

Tee Higgins (4-Years – $2,171,696/YR)

Finally, we have made it to a little deeper of a pick.  Higgins is probably not the first player you would think of when considering a league winning wide receiver.  And let me be clear, I’m not claiming that Higgins is going to jump to Hill or Adams’ type production.  He is on a much less powerful offense than those two players, and he has lost his starting quarterback (Joe Burrow) for the season.  The knee injury that Burrow sustained in Week 12 was very unfortunate to not only the Bengals as a whole, but also to Higgins.  The type of quarterback play that Burrow was displaying is unable to be matched by Brandon Allen, but that’s not to say his receivers can’t be valuable.

Tee Higgins is the WR 28 on the season.  He is averaging just under five receptions and 66 yards per game.  He has also added five touchdowns.  This is a modest stat line for sure, but he has averaged 13.9 fantasy points per game.  This is a very respectable total for a rookie and one that is, frankly, getting overlooked.  Higgins now enters the last three games of the fantasy season with three very tempting matchups.  The Bengals will face Dallas (Week 14), Pittsburgh (Week 15) and Houston (Week 16).  Not only are each of these matchups above average for wide receiver fantasy points (maybe excluding the Steelers), but the game scripts for each game should be equally as good.  My prediction is that Cincinnati finds themselves trailing in all three games, and they may be trailing by quite a bit.  The Bengals are going to have to pass, and they are going to do it a lot.  While I don’t see Higgins as a better receiver than Tyler Boyd (yet), Higgins has kept pace with Boyd’s receptions over the past two weeks.  If you are looking for a rock bottom floor of 10 fantasy points and a ceiling of 25 fantasy points, Higgins is as reliable as you’ll find.  Bold prediction time…

Tee Higgins’ Final Three Games:

  • 17 receptions – 220 total yards – 2 touchdowns

Mike Gesicki (4-Years – $1,652,981/YR)

And now for the final player in our League Winners.  Here is a tight end that I touted all throughout the off season.  I targeted him in every league that I drafted in (including Dynasty Owner), and I was actually able to acquire him in my BETA league draft.  Mike Gesicki is one of the top three most athletic tight ends in the league, but he hasn’t received the volume that fantasy managers would have liked to see.  I don’t think it’s too harsh to say that Gesicki has had a disappointing season so far.  39 receptions through Week 13 is not what Owners expected.  Regardless, he has shown the ability to have league winning games.  In Week 2, Gesicki put up 8-130-1.  In Week 13, he put up 9-88-1.  As I said, Gesicki has shown that he is able to produce dominant fantasy weeks when given the right opportunity, and I think he will be relied on more throughout the next three games.  While none of Gesicki’s remaining matches is particularly favorable for tight end production, I do believe he will have a positive game script in those games.  Miami plays Kansas City (Week 14), New England (Week 15) and Las Vegas (Week 16).  Miami is expected to be losing or, at the very least, keep the game close in all three.  I look for Gesicki to lead the Dolphins in receptions and receiving yards over the fantasy playoffs.  Bold Prediction:

Mike Gesicki’s Final Three Games:

  • 19 receptions – 202 receiving yards – 2 touchdowns

If Mike is able to put up this stat line, he would be averaging 17 fantasy points per game, and would be well above the average tight end production for the season.

Final Thoughts

I want to finish by saying good luck to everyone this week.  Remember, no one has been eliminated from a prize yet.  You may want to give up because you are no longer competing for the Championship, but there is still work to be done.  An extra pick or an Amnesty Provision will go a long way towards rebuilding for next year.  As always, take care and be safe.

-TheJerk

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Gimme Five: An Analysis of the Five Beta League Drafts

Author: Steven Van Tassell

For the past couple of weeks, new and returning Dynasty Owners have been drafting their teams for the upcoming 2020 season. We highlighted the results of the first league to draft (Beta League 3) in an earlier article, but that was just one draft. In total, there are 6 beta leagues with 72 of the most passionate returning owners from the 2019 Dynasty Owner season competing to win. Five of those leagues have drafted (all but League 5) and new Dynasty Owners can learn a lot by looking at the results of these beta user drafts.

All five of these beta user leagues drafted in June with the first league (League 3) picking on June 14th and the last of the beta leagues (League 6) drafting back on June 26th. As a result, these Dynasty Owners didn’t have the benefit of more recent information, such as the signing of QB Cam Newton on a 1-year, $1.75 million contract by New England or the Patrick Mahomes 10-year, $450 million mega-extension.

High Five

In the first 12-team Dynasty Owner beta user drafts, we saw five players consistently be drafted at the top of the first round. Those players are, in order, Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes. Each one of them has an ADP of 4.0 or lower and were drafted in the top five players in every beta user draft, except Kyler Murray who was drafted with the #7 pick in League 1 and Patrick Mahomes who was drafted with the #7 pick in League 2.

The two players not listed above who ended up as the 5th pick in the League 1 and League 2 drafts respectively, were Michael Thomas and Daniel Jones. Jones is an interesting situation and there will be more on him later in the article.

First Round Draft Selections

Out of five beta user leagues, we had a total of 18 different players drafted in the first round. Most of the first round draft picks were RBs (11), with 5 QBs and 2 WRs rounding out the rest of the first round picks. No TEs were drafted in the first round in any 2020 beta user draft. The average salary of these first round picks was just over $5 million ($5,068,669), which was driven up by the double-digit salaries of Ezekiel Elliott ($15 million) and Michael Thomas ($19.25 million) and driven down by the salaries of two players who make less than $1 million (Alvin Kamara at $964,443 and Chris Godwin at $821,041).

In contrast, a quick look at the Dynasty ADP rankings on Fantasy Football Calculator (https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/dynasty) shows a total of 23 players selected with a first round pick in 471 dynasty league drafts between April 11th and July 9th of this year. Out of those players, less than half (11) were RBs, while nearly as many were WRs (9). Only two QBs (Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes) and one TE (Travis Kelce) were selected in the first round in any of these 471 leagues.

As mentioned earlier, there are more QBs selected with a first round pick in Dynasty Owner than a regular dynasty league because of the unique Dynasty Owner scoring system. The increase in the number of QBs drafted in the first round in Dynasty Owner comes at the expense of WRs, with fewer of them drafted in the first round in Dynasty Owner. While there were the same number of RBs drafted in the first round, there were two drafted in the first round in Dynasty Owner (Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Austin Ekeler) who were not drafted in the first round in any of the 471 regular dynasty leagues. Both Derrick Henry and Leonard Fournette went in the first round of at least one regular dynasty league, but not in any of the five Dynasty Owner beta user leagues.

Fan Club Presidents Meeting

The running joke on dynasty fantasy football Twitter is that if you really like a guy and draft him early, you are President of his Fan Club. Last year, I was the President of the Jimmy Garoppolo Fan Club since I was in four leagues (two redraft, one regular dynasty and Dynasty Owner) and had him in all four. I wasn’t able to draft him in the beta users draft so my reign is over, but think Hillbilly Trash Trucks (Matthew Montgomery) got himself a heck of a starting QB with the last pick in the 13th round.

In the same spirit, I would like to nominate the following Dynasty Owners as President of the Fan Club of the following players. To be nominated, you had to draft a player at least one full round before he was drafted in any other beta user league. You also had to draft him a full round ahead of his ADP. For example, if you took Player A in the first round with the #10 pick and based on the other beta user league drafts, he would have been available with your #34 pick and his ADP was 22.0 or higher, then you’re nominated for President of that guy’s Fan Club. Without further delay, here are a few of the nominees:

  • New Mexico Mountain (League 2) – Daniel Jones
  • The Jerk (League 3) – Ke’Shawn Vaughn
  • Kralj_Smeca (League 2) – Robert Woods
  • Fumbled Dreams (League 4) – Ronald Jones
  • TE Ertz when Eifert (League 6) – Julio Jones
  • Hillbilly Trash Trucks (League 3) – Stefon Diggs
  • CyberFire (League 2) – Carson Wentz

It might have something to do with having Jones as your last name as three of the six guys picked “too early” by one Dynasty Owner are Jones’s (Daniel, Ronald and Julio).

New Mexico Mountain won the Daniel Jones presidency in a landslide as he selected Daniel Jones in the first round with the 5th pick in the League 2 draft when he wasn’t selected until at least the third round in any of the other four beta user drafts.

In the same League, Kralj_Smeca took Robert Woods with the 40th overall pick. That’s a fourth round pick for Woods when he was drafted at the end of the sixth round or in the seventh round in the other beta user drafts. Even with the high pick in League 2, Woods still has an ADP of 66.0.

Fumbled Dreams loves the Tampa Bay backfield. He drafted Ronald Jones and Ke’Shawn Vaughn back to back with the 48th and 49th picks in the League 4 draft. For Vaughn, that was right on his beta users draft ADP of 49.4, but for Jones, it was way earlier than in any other beta users draft. Jones went at the end of the sixth round (#69), top of the seventh round (#73), middle of the seventh round (#78) and middle of the eighth round (#91) in the other drafts. Even though his next pick wasn’t until the 72nd pick, Fumbled Dreams probably could have waited and gotten Jones at that time.

Fumbled Dreams was lucky that he’s not in League 3 or he would have completely missed out on Ke’Shawn Vaughn since The Jerk took Vaughn with his third round pick (#31 overall). He could have had him a round later in every other beta user league since the next highest spot that Vaughn was selected was with the #46 pick.

TE Ertz when Eifert might want to rename his team to I Love Julio Jones. He drafted Julio with the #45 pick in the 4th round of the League 6 draft, while no one else grabbed Julio before the start of the 7th round (#76). At the other extreme was League 2, as Julio wasn’t drafted until the 10th round (#117) in that league.

Stefon Diggs was drafted by Hillbilly Trash Trucks with the second pick in the 8th round (#85 overall). Matthew Montgomery might not have picked Diggs so early if League 3 hadn’t drafted first since the earliest Diggs was chosen in any other beta user league was with the #115 pick in League 2.

However, the undisputed #1 Fan Club President has to be CyberFire who drafted Carson Wentz and his $32 million salary with his 4th round pick (#47 overall). Wentz went undrafted in League 4 and has an ADP of 118.0 in the four leagues he was selected in. Wentz was drafted in the 10th round (#115), 13th round (#151) and 14th round (#159) in the other three beta leagues.

Salaries

Dynasty Owner is using real NFL contracts as part of the game, unlike any other fantasy football game out there. Just like an NFL General Manager, Dynasty Owners need to build a team using real NFL salaries (average salaries based on the total contract value divided by number of years on the contract) and stay under a hard salary cap ($110 million for the 2020 season). So, how do the five beta league rosters look in comparison to all NFL skill position players in terms of salaries?  The surprising answer is that Dynasty Owner rosters are a little top heavy.

Just over three-fifths (61%) of players drafted in the five beta user leagues have salaries of $1 million or more (Vikings WR Tajae Sharpe and Browns WR JoJo Natson both make exactly $1 million), but less than one-quarter (22%) make $5 million or more and only one in ten (11%) make $10 million or more.

In comparison, an analysis of Spotrac salaries for 914 skill position players (available at https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/offense/) finds that just over one-third (35%) of skill position players (QB, RB, WR, TE, K) make $1 million or more, while one in eight (12%) make $5 million or more and just 5% make $10 million or more.

This is probably not too surprisingly as Spotrac includes all skill position players under contract right now, even if many of them will eventually be waived or placed on the practice squad. Dynasty Owners are likely not picking too many of these low-paid, undrafted rookie free agents who aren’t going to make their NFL team’s roster.

Solitary Men

Raise your hand if you’re a Neil Diamond fan and got the headline reference to his 1966 song Solitary Man. I prefer Sweet Caroline myself, but nobody with the name Caroline is currently on an active NFL roster so I couldn’t use that. Shout out to my friends Scott and Kerri Bernstein who are huge Neil Diamond (and fans of the Neil Diamond cover band Super Diamond as well) for being the people who introduced me to Neil and Surreal Neil.

Not every good NFL player will be on a Dynasty Owner roster in every league. There are many guys out there who were only drafted in one of the five beta leagues that have drafted already and probably won’t be highly owned when new players start drafting as well. Here are some guys drafted in the Top 200 or higher who only were selected in one beta user league out of five.

  • Rams QB Jared Goff – #110 pick in League 3
  • 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo – #156 pick in League 3
  • Raiders QB Derek Carr – #169 pick in League 6
  • Jaguars TE Tyler Eifert – #193 pick in League 4
  • 49ers RB Salvon Ahmed – #191 pick in League 6. Admit it, most of you had to go look to see who he is. Congrats to The Replacements for making this bold selection.
  • Samaje Perine – #182 pick in League 3 and big brother to La’Mical Perine, who was drafted in all five beta leagues, but a few rounds higher than Samaje. Through extensive investigative reporting, I can confirm that this was a mistake by the team who drafted him. (Editor’s note: The team who drafted Samaje admitted he goofed up and said so, no investigative reporting was done for this article).

Both Golden Tate and Brandin Cooks were taken with the 203rd pick of the League 1 and League 4 drafts, respectively, and just missed inclusion in this list.

Random Facts

Finally, here are some random facts about the five beta user league drafts that seem interesting to me.

  • Player with highest ADP drafted in all five drafts – Gus Edwards (ADP 274.2)
  • Kicker with the lowest ADP – Matt Gay (ADP 179.4)
  • First kicker drafted in any beta user league – Greg Zuerlein (#162 pick in League 1 by Young Gunz)
  • Number of kickers with ADP below 200 – 7 (Matt Gay, Younghoe Koo, Greg Zuerlein, Justin Rohrwasser, Harrison Butker, Austin Seibert and Michael Badgley)
  • Total number of players drafted in all five beta user drafts – 366
  • Number of players drafted in all five beta user drafts – 239

Conclusions

What did we learn, if anything, from this analysis of the five beta user leagues?  

The first lesson learned is that no two leagues are the same. No player was drafted in the same draft slot in all five beta leagues. While Lamar Jackson is the top rated player in the initial Dynasty Owner Top 300 and had the lowest ADP in the five beta user drafts, his ADP is still 1.2 – meaning he was drafted first in four leagues and second in the fifth league (League 4). Fumbled Dreams had the first pick in League 4 and took Patrick Mahomes with it. With 72 Dynasty Owners, you’re likely to have 72 opinions on what to do at any single draft slot.

Second, if you want Lamar, CMC, Saquon, Kyler, or Mahomes, you better trade up into the Top 5 if you don’t get one of those top five draft slots since they will all be likely gone by the fifth pick. I saw a new Dynasty Owner on Twitter (@tommysavs) who drafted Kyler Murray with the eighth pick, but that is likely an outlier like League 1 where he was drafted seventh. By the way, congrats to him and his team (WLN Savages) on stealing Murray and “what were you thinking?!?” to the seven owners in his league who let Murray fall down to that pick.

With that said, there’s still some consensus surrounding certain things, like QBs get drafted earlier in Dynasty Owner than your regular year-to-year redraft league and most regular dynasty leagues. If you don’t know why, then look at the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system information that appears at the beginning of most of my articles. Or you can read the Dynasty Owner Constitution posted in the app or online at https://9jn.41d.myftpupload.com/how-it-works/ under “Read Constitution” to figure out why QBs are drafted earlier.

No surprise here, but almost nobody loves kickers in Dynasty Owner. The first one wasn’t drafted until the 14th round in any of the beta user leagues and many Dynasty Owners leave them to the end of the draft, just like your regular non-Dynasty Owner league.

For some of you, this article was too late, but others reading this haven’t drafted yet. Hopefully, this article helps you prepare for your initial Dynasty Owner season. If you want more preparation, you still have time to get yourself into one of the mock drafts going on every 15 minutes.

We have more articles coming on a regular basis from Chris Wolf (@ckwolf21 on Twitter) and I. The first of the monthly Dynasty Owner Top 300 is also coming very soon. The podcast series with myself and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer will continue to be posted on the Dynasty Owner channel on YouTube as well to help you get prepared. Subscribe to the YouTube channel and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. All of this great content is available to help you win your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

Steven Van Tassell is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner.

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner