Wide Receiver Top 10 Rankings: Kansas City Chiefs Breakdown

Kansas City Chiefs’ Breakdown

Hello Owners, and thank you for continuing to read my weekly articles.  I hope all of you are also able to watch my video breakdowns on YouTube or at least listen to them via podcast.  As all of you know, I am very passionate about Dynasty Owner.  I imagine most of you are too if you follow my articles.  I want to thank you all for supporting this platform, and for spreading the news about Dynasty Owner.  With that out of the way, I want to talk about last week’s article a little before I jump into this one.

Since the start of 2021,  I have been centering my articles around each NFL division and, in turn, each NFL team.  Last week was a little different, and I didn’t explain why.  When I decided to go with this ranking theme for the month of June, I expected everything to go pretty smooth.  We have four main positions that need to be ranked, and we have four teams in each division.  I was going to try and put one player from each team in their respective position rankings.  The quarterback rankings started with Justin Herbert.  Herbert is my number one quarterback in Dynasty Owner.  That week worked well.  Running back rankings, however, turned out to be harder than I thought.  I wrongfully assumed that either Josh Jacobs (LV) or Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) would be my delegate from the running back position.  (Hell, I had them both ranked as Top 5 running backs last year.)  As I said, that was a wrong assumption.  As soon as I stated each player out, I quickly realized that Jacobs belonged nowhere near the Top 10 and CEH was going to rank no higher than RB14.  I wanted to sneak CEH into the Top 10, and I thought about it, but it wouldn’t have been reflective of my true rankings.  Therefore (as you probably noticed) I did not have a “team theme” for last week.  While working on my wide receiver rankings, I found that we are going to have the same issue.  No matter how hard I tried, there was no way to fit a Raiders or Broncos wide receiver into the Top 10.  Here is my resolution.  Next week I will combine the Raiders and Broncos breakdowns into one article.  The next article will discuss Top 10 tight end rankings and both teams will have a tight end in the Top 10 for my rankings.

Wide Receiver Rankings

A few important facts to note before I release the rankings…

First, all Dynasty Owner leagues are full PPR (Point per Reception).  This means that you will receive one full point for a reception that any of your players completes.  Obviously, running backs and tight ends will receive these valuable points as well.  For the most part though, wide receivers account for the majority of the PPR points that are handed out.  This places a big emphasis on wide receivers especially if you would compare it to a ½ PPR or no PPR league.  So, what does this mean for my rankings?  To be honest, it plays into them, but does not affect the wide receiver to wide receiver rankings much.  What it does affect is my overall rankings, especially how low reception running backs compare to high reception wide receivers.  Think about Derek Henry for example.  There is a reason that he was not ranked in my Top 10 running backs last week, and the reason is not completely his salary.  Henry ranked 45th among all running backs in terms of receptions in 2020.  While that drops him below some of his pass catching peers, it also drops him below some wide receivers that you may not expect.

Second, as I mentioned in my previous article, these rankings are not only reflective of value, but they also reflect where I personally like to spend my salary cap.  I tend to avoid paying for expensive running backs (at least in the early rounds).  This allows me to pay for expensive wide receivers and quarterbacks in the middle rounds.  My rankings will reflect that, and it is the reason that I have twice as many “high contract” wide receivers as I do running backs in the Top 10.

RankPlayer2020 DO Finish2021 DO Proj FinishYears RemainingSalary
WR1Justin Jefferson793$3,280,701
WR2D.K. Metcalf652$1,146,513
WR3Tyreek Hill212$18,000,000
WR4Calvin Ridley542$2,725,178
WR5Davante Adams181$14,500,000
WR6Stefon Diggs333$14,400,000
WR7A.J. Brown1172$1,413,092
WR8Terry McLaurin2062$961,918
WR9CeeDee Lamb22153$3,502,503
WR10DeAndre Hopkins424$27,250,000

Justin Jefferson comes in as my WR1 at this moment.  What is the reason?  He’s on a rookie contract ($3,280,701) for three more years, and he was WR7 in Dynasty Owner last season.  Will he be the highest scoring wide receiver in 2021?  Probably not.  Will he be the highest scoring wide receiver over the next three years?  Probably not.  But he will be a reliably Top 10 wide receiver over those three years, and there are very few receivers who will have a lower DD/FT (Dynasty Dollars per Point).  JJ is top level value in the same way that Jonathan Taylor is top tier value.

DK Metcalf is WR2.  I project that Metcalf will outscore Jefferson over the next three seasons but that the point difference will most likely be negligible.  Given that idea, the extra year JJ has on his rookie contract is far more valuable than any year to year advantage DK has.

Here is where our “team theme” resumes.  Tyreek Hill is an unbelievably talented wide receiver playing with an unbelievably talented quarterback.  Here are Tyreek’s last three seasons…

 RecTotal YardsTDsFantasy Points/GameTotal Fantasy Points
2018871,6301320.9334
2019841,2841017.1273.9
2020931,4921822.3356.2

(Stats are based on a full 16 game season)

These numbers are very consistent, and any of these years would be on pace of a Top 10 wide receiver.  Yes, there is an elephant in the room, and it’s the fact that Hill costs $18,000,000 per year to own.  That is not a small amount, and it could be too much that you feel scared away from him.  I’m here to tell you not to be.  If you budget correctly for the rest of the draft, there is no reason that you should be worried about drafting Hill.  In one of my paid leagues, I have acquired Patrick Mahomes, Christian McCaffrey, Hill and Darren Waller.  Now, you most likely aren’t going to be able to draft all four of them in a startup league, but the point remains…it is possible to spend early and have enough cap to finish the draft.  Hill is not going to win any efficiency awards this year, but there is a very real (maybe even likely) possibility that he is the WR1 at the end of the 2021 season.  A few more points before we move on…

I haven’t mentioned the receiving bonus or Clutch Scoring that Dynasty Owner employs.  The receiving bonus is awarded as 6 points if a player has at least 200 receiving yards in a single game.  This is no doubt a rare event.  In fact, only three players in 2020 had 200 or more receiving yards in a game.  One is Tyreek Hill with 269 in Week 12 against the Buccaneers.  Can you name the other two?  (Hint: They both had exactly 200 receiving yards and only one is a wide receiver.)  While these six points being awarded is rare, Hill is the most capable player in the NFL to do it.  I’m going to make a bold prediction right now and predict that Hill will have two 200 yard receiving games in the 2021 season. 

The final thing I want to mention is Clutch Scoring.  Along with real salaries and bench scoring, Clutch Scoring is one of the many facets of Dynasty Owner that makes it unique.  Clutch Scoring is awarded as 3 points when any of your players score in the final two minutes of regulation or anytime in overtime as long as that score results in a lead change.  This also applies to tied games.  Obviously, this bonus is nearly impossible to predict, and to be honest, the success of the Chiefs hampers all of their players from receiving it.  However, if the Chiefs do find themselves down and in a two minute offense at the end of the game, Hill is one of the biggest threats to score.  We know he can score and that he can score quick.  Again, these bonuses are not likely to be awarded on a weekly basis, but Hill is one of the most capable receivers to get them.

Calvin Ridley has proven quite a bit in his young career, but he will have to prove it all again.  This time it will be as the Alpha on his team.  There have been numerous tales of secondary wide receivers that were unable to take over as the “lead receiver” after the Alpha left.  I personally believe that Ridley can and will do it.  It also doesn’t hurt that Kyle Pitts comes in as another prime weapon and matchup nightmare for future defenses.  Time will tell how successful Ridley will be as the Alpha, but with two years still on his rookie deal, he will have a lot of room for error.

Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs come in as WR5 and WR6.  Both have nearly identical salaries ($14,500,000 and $14,400,000), and they are both coming off of superb seasons (WR1 and WR3).  I wouldn’t argue with you if you liked Diggs over Adams, but Adams’ dominant season in 2020 (despite missing two games) puts him just ahead of Diggs.

A.J. Brown and Terry McLaurin rank next as rock solid value picks.  The addition of Julio Jones in Tennessee worries me somewhat as he will take volume away from Brown.  However, I believe the Julio addition makes the Titans a better team overall which will allow for longer drives and more scoring potential.

CeeDee Lamb has the most expensive contract of all the “cheap contract” receivers on this list.  Even still, he is poised to have another successful year.  Hopefully in 2021, he will have Dak Prescott for the entire season.  If he does, I’m projecting a Top 15 wide receiver finish for him.

DeAndre Hopkins rounds out these rankings, and I struggled with this pick for quite a while.  He is by far the most expensive wide receiver in the NFL (it’s not close).  However, when I look at his finish last season (WR4) and his projected finish this season (WR2), I can’t help but think that his production necessitates a spot in the list.  I am aware that Hopkins is 29 years old and is reaching the declination point for wide receivers in the NFL.  I contend that even if he only plays for the duration of the rest of his contract (4 years), he will be productive enough to warrant a top receiver ranking.  As I said in the beginning, I will gladly pay for expensive wide receivers if I can successfully draft the cheap running backs.

*The two players (other than T. Hill) that recorded 200 yard receiving games are Tyler Lockett and Darren Waller.

That does it for me this week.  Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know what you agree with or disagree with as far as my rankings go.  Give me a shout if you just want to talk about fantasy football in general.  Also, I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube.  Next week I’ll wrap up this division as I bring a double team breakdown and my tight end Top 10 rankings.  Thank you all.  Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

Who Wants to Draft a Non-Millionaire Player? – Part 1

Author: Steven Van Tassell

In the draft tips article from last week, finding value was the top recommendation. So, the next question is what players are going to give you enough value and help you win your Dynasty Owner league championship in 2020 and beyond. If you’re like Ricky Bobby and just focus on 2020 (“If you’re not first, you’re last”), then there are a lot of players who you can draft this year who have low salaries and will likely produce enough Dynasty Owner fantasy points to help you win now.

If you want to be competitive in both 2020 and beyond, there are still plenty of  players with contracts of under $1 million per year who are signed now for more than just the 2020 season. In fact, there are too many players to include in just one article. We’ll look at QBs, RBs and WRs first, then focus on TEs and kickers in the next article.

At RB, Phillip Lindsay only earns $575,000 and both Aaron Jones and Chris Carson make less than $651,000 per year, but all three of them only have one year left on their rookie deals. Alvin Kamara is a first round pick who also just fits under the $1 million figure with his 2020 salary of $964,443. Chris Godwin ($821,041 salary) was the #3 overall WR in Dynasty Owner in 2019 and a legitimate first round 2020 pick, but he’s only under contract for that salary for one more year. Cooper Kupp and Kenny Golladay are expected to be early round selections as well and also make less than $1 million, but both are only signed for 2020.

We won’t mention any of those players in this article, or players who just miss the $1 million cutoff, such as Bears RB David Montgomery who was picked in the third round of the 2019 draft and has a Dynasty Owner salary of just north of $1 million ($1,003,845 to be exact). Same with two Pittsburgh WRs (Diontae Johnson and James Washington) who should benefit from the return of Ben Roethlisberger both of whom make slightly over $1 million per year.

These non-millionaire guys with multiple years left on their rookie contracts may not be the ones who, by themselves, win you your 2020 Dynasty Owner league championship. To win, you’ll need them to contribute enough to provide some help at the minimum from your Bench or as a Bye Week Starter. Their contribution could also be more subtle as a guy who provides depth, but more importantly, saves your Dynasty Owner team some salary cap room to be able to afford those expensive, impact players who will help you win.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution.

Backfield Limitations

If you are looking for one of these non-millionaire guys at either QB or RB, you’ll need to grab him earlier in your Dynasty Owner draft than you might think he’s worthy of being drafted as there are only four of them. Here’s how they rank in order (with salary figures):

  1. Devin Singletary (RB – BUF – $974,500 thru 2022): Now that Frank Gore has moved on to the Jets (why Frank?!? – just retire gracefully instead of as a backup for the Jets), Singletary is the starter in Buffalo for a team that ranked seventh overall in rushing yards in 2019. Sure, the Bills might pass more this year after adding Stefon Diggs or rookie Zack Moss might vulture some yards and TDs. However, unless you think Moss will overtake Singletary sometime this year, Singletary’s the first non-millionaire backfield guy to grab.
  2. Gardner Minshew II (QB – JAX – $677,721 thru 2022): Minshew is the Man in Jacksonville after being the backup last year and taking over when Nick Foles got injured. The Jaguars traded Foles and his $22 million per year contract to Chicago, so Mike Glennon is the backup to Minshew and unlikely to overtake him in training camp. Maybe the Jaguars sign Cam Newton, but if not, Minshew’s the starter and could be a valuable Bench QB or bye week starter. That’s really good for under $700,000.
  3. Tony Pollard (RB – DAL – $796,945 thru 2022): Pollard might be the backup to Ezekiel Elliott, but he’ll get the ball enough to keep on your Bench weekly in the hopes that he has a great game or two when the Cowboys are leading (or losing) by a lot and want to save Elliott. He had three of those games in 2019 in which he averaged 22.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. And if Elliott does get injured, Pollard becomes the starter in Dallas and gets inserted into a lot of Dynasty Owner lineups as either a RB or FLEX. He’s worth a spot on your roster even if you don’t own Elliott.
  4. Jarrett Stidham (QB – NE – $788,423 thru 2022): The G.O.A.T. is gone from New England and Bill Belichick appears committed to Stidham since he didn’t take a QB at all in the 2020 draft. The Patriots come into the 2020 season with Stidham, Brian Hoyer (only $1.05 million in Dynasty Owner salary) and two undrafted rookie free agents fighting for the third string spot. That’s it unless the Patriots suddenly have a change of heart and sign Cam Newton. Here’s hoping Stidham is the Steve Young of the Patriots (a Hall of Fame QB replacing another Hall of Fame QB) and not Hugh Millen, Tommy Hodson, or Marc Wilson (yes, those are the names of actual Patriots starting QBs in the early 1990s before they drafted Drew Bledsoe).

The rest of the non-millionaire QBs are expected to be backups in 2020, barring an injury, so we aren’t going to rank them. However, there are a few additional RBs who are lower-ranked backups or maybe third down, pass catching RBs who might be worth a Practice Squad spot as they are unlikely to contribute as a Starter or Bench player in 2020 unless the starting RB or RBs for their team gets injured. Several of them (Ito Smith in Atlanta, Alexander Mattison in Minnesota to name two) will find their way onto Dynasty Owner rosters as a handcuff to the starter, but they likely have limited value in 2020 barring injuries.

Receivers

There is a lot more value available at WR than QB and RB combined as 20 players meet our qualifications for inclusion on this list and we could have added more if we wanted. Let’s just limit ourselves to analyzing the top 12 of them (and list the other 8 in order) who should help your Dynasty Owner team in 2020 and beyond.

  1. Darius Slayton (NYG – $688,497 thru 2022): Finished the 2019 Dynasty Owner season as the #36 WR, which would make him a fringe starter in 12-team Dynasty Owner leagues for less than $700,000. Grabbing Slayton early will give you salary cap room to get productive veterans later on in the draft. Slayton had three games with 2 TDs in 2019 and more than 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He might be the Giants #1 WR this year and if so, could be in for a bigger year than projected (216.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points).
  2. Michael Gallup (DAL – $880,995 thru 2021): Despite the presence of rookie first round pick CeeDee Lamb, Gallup is projected to have more Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2020 than 2019 (238.1 vs. 212.7). He had nine games with 10.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points last season, up from three in 2018, and two more 2019 games that just fell short (9.5 and 9.3 respectively). Gallup takes a hit here down to the #2 slot because of the presence of Lamb and Amari Cooper, but he’s still worthy of a high Dynasty Owner draft pick in 2020.
  3. Terry McLaurin (WAS – $961,918 thru 2022): McLaurin just comes in under the $1 million salary necessary to be included here. He may be the top WR and is projected to be the #15 WR overall in Dynasty Owner, but costs a little bit over $80,000 more than Gallup and nearly $275,000 more than Slayton. Plus, he has the worst QB situation of the top three with second year QB Dwayne Haskins likely under center in Washington, or Kyle Allen if Coach Ron Rivera wants to go with a guy he coached last year in Carolina. McLaurin averaged 12.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in seven games with Haskins at QB, lower than the 14.8 points per game in seven games with the other Redskins starting QBs (Case Keenum and Colt McCoy).
  4. Preston Williams (MIA – $588,333 thru 2021): Williams averaged 11.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game before a season-ending ACL tear in Week 9 versus the Jets. Did you know he had 24.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in that game and four other games with 10.0+ points in just eight games as an undrafted rookie free agent? He’s projected as the #66 WR in 2020 so he’s a fifth or sixth WR on your Dynasty Owner team, but one who could produce if needed for a couple of weeks based on what he did in half a season in 2019. All that production for just $583,333. Don’t wait too long to draft him or he’ll be gone.
  5. Russell Gage (ATL – $654,049 thru 2021): After the Falcons traded Mohamed Sanu to the Patriots, Gage became a bigger part of the Falcons offense. He averaged 10.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in the last nine games of the season, flashing his potential for 2020. The Falcons appear to be happy with their WRs as they didn’t draft any, so Gage should be locked in as the #3 WR in Atlanta behind Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. The Falcons did pick up Hayden Hurst to replace Austin Hooper at TE, but there should be plenty of receptions to go around with the passing offense ranked first in completions and third in yards in 2019.
  6. Steven Sims Jr. (WAS – $590,000 thru 2021): If you’ve read any of my off-season articles such as (https://dynastyowner.com/2020/02/available-players-2020/), then you know that I’m a big fan of Steven Sims Jr. It started when I saw him take a reverse 65 yards for a TD against the stout New England defense in Week 5 (a 33-7 New England victory in Washington that I attended. The Patriots defense held the Redskins to 223 yards of total offense). He also averaged 20.8 in the final three games of the 2019 season. Sims would be higher on this list if the Redskins hadn’t drafted both Antonio Gibson and Antonio Gandy-Golden in the 2020 NFL draft to compete with him for targets. Dirt cheap at just $590,000 for two more years.
  7. Hunter Renfrow (LV – $708,987 thru 2022): Another guy who emerged at the end of the 2019 season and would be ranked higher except for the fact that the Raiders took three WRs in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. He had 45.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Weeks 16 and 17 combined, but also had three other games with 10.0 or more points. Projected as the #45 WR in Dynasty Owner 2020 even after the Raiders drafted Henry Ruggs, Lynn Bowden and Bryan Edwards and will cost you less than each one of them, so he still has some value for Dynasty Owners.
  8. Tre’Quan Smith (NO – $855,131 thru 2021): The Saints passing offense had the second most completions and seventh most yards in 2019 despite having QB Drew Brees miss five complete games and most of a sixth game. Smith didn’t have great overall stats in 2019, but produced five receiving TDs (all from Brees) and almost all of his 74.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points with Brees at QB, so it appears that he has his QB’s trust. He’s listed as a starting WR on the current Saints depth chart along with Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. If Smith can step up and be a reliable #3 WR for the high-powered Saints passing offense, his Dynasty Owners will gladly pay $855,131 for his services in 2020 and 2021.
  9. Scott Miller (TB – $661,960 thru 2022): Miller is one of the three leading candidates for the third receiver spot in Tampa Bay, along with Justin Watson and rookie fifth round draft pick Tyler Johnson. Miller had two double digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2019 and could have had two more but he wasn’t able to play in the final two games of the season. Both Tampa Bay starting WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were out for the final two games as well, so big performances from Miller were possible in those games if he hadn’t gotten injured.
  10. Justin Watson (TB – $690,435 thru 2021): Watson is really the 9B to Miller’s 9A as Dynasty Owners who are bullish on the Tampa Bay passing game in 2020 with the G.O.A.T. under center might want to own both of these candidates for the #3 WR position in Tampa. Watson had two games with 15.0+ Dynasty Owner fantasy points at the end of the season when Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Scott Miller were all out with injuries. However, he loses out to Miller for the 9 spot here simply because he has one less year on his contract and is almost $30,000 more in salary. That’s not a lot, but every dollar matters in Dynasty Owner.
  11. Olabisi Johnson (MIN – $648,572 thru 2022): No Stefon Diggs in Minnesota means the Vikings passing offense needs to replace a player who had 63 receptions, 1,130 receiving yards and 6 receiving TDs in 2019. They did pick up Tajae Sharpe in free agency and drafted Justin Jefferson in the first round of the 2020 draft and K.J. Osborn in the fifth round (it’s all about the U), so there’s plenty of competition for Johnson to replace Diggs. Johnson isn’t a dart throw, but for under $650,000 a year, he might be worth adding to your Dynasty Owner draft queue as a late round selection.
  12. Jakobi Meyers (NE – $588,333 thru 2021): There’s not a lot of depth at WR in New England after Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry, so Meyers could be in for a big role in 2020. He scored Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 11 of 16 regular season games in 2019. In addition, Meyers had a great connection with new Patriots QB Jarrett Stidham during the 2019 pre-season with 16 receptions for 216 receiving yards and a touchdown. Hopes are high in New England that this carries over into the 2020 regular season.

If this were college football or college basketball rankings, we’d have a section called “Others Receiving Votes”. Here are a few additional names to round out a Top 20 of WRs, who just missed out on making it into our Top 12:

13. Miles Boykin (BAL – $893,732 thru 2022)

14. DeSean Hamilton (DEN – $785,660 thru 2021)

15. Kelvin Harmon (WAS – $661,960 thru 2022)

16. Keke Coutee (HOU – $797,257 thru 2021)

17. KeeSean Johnson (ARI – $682,328 thru 2022)

18. Javon Wims (CHI – $638,978 thru 2021)

19. Damion Ratley (CLE – $663,467 thru 2021)

20. John Ursua (SEA – $650,668 thru 2022)

Conclusions

There are plenty of lower paid, productive WRs with multiple seasons left on their rookie contract, more than QBs and RBs. With 12 team leagues and 30-man rosters, all of these players should find their way into a Dynasty Owner roster this season. Every Dynasty Owner will have to mix in some of these players to be able to afford higher priced talent. The key is getting value out of these non-millionaire players, not just filling out roster space with minimum salary players who aren’t playing and are just occupying space on your Practice Squad.

In a “regular” dynasty league, these young players are important to own, but their importance is amplified in Dynasty Owner because of the $110 million salary cap. You can’t just have Russell Wilson ($35 million), Ezekiel Elliott ($15 million), Julio Jones ($22 million) and Travis Kelce ($9.4 million) on your Dynasty Owner roster and win unless you find some value players to fill out your starting lineup and Bench.

There was plenty of activity in the Dynasty Owner universe last week. If you didn’t watch it already, everyone should check out the YouTube Livestream mock draft from Friday morning (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6m6ELEZQcQE). There are mock drafts going on constantly with some beta users setting up specific times to join and help calculate ADP for the 2020 drafts. We also two new articles recently from Milos Ljubic (@LjubicMilos on Twitter) and one from Chris Wolf (@ckwolf21 on Twitter) on Friday. All of this great content is available to help you win your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

Steven Van Tassell is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner