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Week 7 Preview – Key Matchups

Week 7 Preview – Key Matchups

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Week 7 started on Thursday with a key matchup that might help determine who wins the NFC East division this year. Of course, both teams had one win coming into the game because nobody in the NFC East is any good so every time a NFC East team can win a game, it’s a huge step towards winning the division. At the end of the week, the two night games are both key matchups between likely playoff bound teams. On Sunday night, undefeated 5-0 Seattle takes on 4-2 Arizona, while on Monday night, the surprising 5-1 Bears play against the 4-2 Rams. Both of those games will help determine who might win the NFC West and earn the only bye in the conference playoffs. Remember, seven teams from each conference make the playoffs this year, so only the top team per conference gets a bye.

In Dynasty Owner, there are key matchups all over. There are ones between teams in the Top 25 in the Chase for the Ring (Quaranteed for Greatness vs. Oh God Dalvins Cookin) and others between a team in the Chase who is facing a team with the same record (Hyenas vs. The Replacements). In the Experts League, Tim and I face off to see who has bragging rights on the podcast for the rest of the year. And finally, we have a Matchup of the Week between two teams at the top of their league.

Your matchup may not be featured here, but it could be just as important to getting you into the Dynasty Owner playoffs. To help you in your quest to win your League, every week of the regular season and playoffs, there will be a set of players presented at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) who you should have as a Starter in your Dynasty Owner lineup as well as one player per position who should be on your Bench or Practice Squad. We won’t recommend a kicker to Start or Bench though and these won’t be the obvious choices for Starters, like go ahead and start Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce (as if you weren’t going to do that already if you have them). Instead, these will be guys to Start who might be ranked outside the top players at their position, not be highly owned or who were drafted to be a backup. For the Bench or Practice Squad choices, we’ll find typical Starters who shouldn’t be in your Starting lineup for the week based on matchups or past performance against a team. We’ll also review my Week 6 recommendations and see how those players fared.

Finally, we will look at one Dynasty Owner game, our Match-up of the Week. For the Match-up of the Week, we will look at the overall projected score and then each team’s Starters and Bench to see how their current lineups are projected to produce. If you want your Dynasty Owner team to be featured as the Match-up of the Week in the future, just tweet me (@SteveVT33).

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of October 23rd.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

First, let’s take a look at how my Week 6 Starter recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok):

  • QB: Kyle Allen – 20.8 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • RB: J.K. Dobbins – 4.9 (Bad recommendation)
  • WR: Christian Kirk – 22.6 (Good recommendation)
  • TE: Cameron Brate – 1.3 (Bad recommendation)

Two consecutive weeks with two Bad recommendations, one Just Ok recommendation and one Good recommendation. The Bad recommendations were once again at RB and TE as neither J.K. Dobbins nor Cameron Brate got enough touches to be productive. Rob Gronkowski hogged all of the TE targets in Tampa this week, leaving Brate to just one catch for three yards. And Gus Edwards got the rushing TD and had more carries than Dobbins (14 to 9), but fewer yards (26 to 28 for Dobbins). Kyle Allen was the #12 QB this week, better than lots of bigger names, and so that pick was Just Ok. Finally, Christian Kirk made the most of his two targets with two catches for 86 yards and two TDs to finish as the #5 WR for the week. That’s a good recommendation! It’s time to duplicate that Good recommendation at WR and get more at the other positions in Week 7.

Joe Burrow (QB – CIN): The Browns are one of the few teams who we can look at how Joe Burrow did against them in trying to find a weekly Starter who might be on your Dynasty Owner Bench right now. Back in Week 2, Burrow put up 32.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against Cleveland. The Bengals trailed by two scores for most of the second half, so Burrow ended up throwing 61 passes. He’s probably not going to throw that many times this week and the Cleveland defense has been much improved recently, allowing only 31.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points combined in the last three games. However, Burrow has thrown the ball a league high 246 times, an average of 41 times per game, and stands to throw it a lot on Sunday afternoon at home. With that kind of volume, it’s surprising that Burrow is the #19 QB in Dynasty Owner. Bet on Burrow airing it out again against the Browns and putting up enough points to be worth having in your Starting lineup.

Justin Jackson (RB – LAC): Dynasty Owners may have forgotten that Chargers RB Justin Jackson had himself a pretty good game back in Week 5 versus New Orleans with 14.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (71 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 23 receiving yards). He has outperformed fellow Chargers RB Joshua Kelley the past two weeks and stands to do so again this week against Jacksonville. The Jaguars allow an average of 25.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to RBs per game and the fifth most rushing yards in the NFL per game so far this season. Jackson is ranked as the #67 RB for the year right now, but was a RB2 in Week 5. At only $570,000, he’s a great value and should be good for at least that this week. Go ahead and put him in your Starting lineup if he’s on your roster.

Tim Patrick (WR – DEN): When Courtland Sutton got injured, it was an open question of who the top receiver would be in Denver. After five games, it’s been Tim Patrick and Noah Fant with Patrick having more receptions (20 to 19) and yards (310 to 219) and tied with Fant in TDs (2 each). Most importantly, Patrick has more Dynasty Owner fantasy points (63 to 54.9). Of course, Fant missed last week’s game while Patrick played and had 14.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to go ahead. Even though he’s the top WR in Denver, he’s still ranked as the #37 WR in Dynasty Owner so he’s not a definite Starter. He should start this week against Kansas City after three consecutive weeks of double digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points (14.3 points in Week 3 versus Tampa Bay; 23.3 points in Week 4 versus the New York Jets; and 14.1 points in Week 6 versus New England). Last year, Sutton averaged 13.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in two games versus Kansas City without scoring a TD. Patrick should equal or exceed that this week and be in your Starting lineup.

Darrell Daniels (TE – ARI): Daniels is the top TE in Arizona, but has only scored 11.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points all year and ranks as the #58 TE in Dynasty Owner. He has played a majority of the snaps for the Cardinals in each of the past four games and this week gets to the face the worst defense in the NFL against TEs in the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have let five opposing TEs have their best game against them over the first six games of the season (Greg Olsen – 12.4 points in Week 1; Dalton Schultz – 20.8 points in Week 2; Jimmy Graham – 23.0 points in Week 3; Robert Tonyan – 33.8 points in Week 4; Irv Smith Jr. – 11.5 points in Week 6). Daniels’ best week so far this year is 5.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 5 versus the Jets, so it’s not a high bar to clear for him to have his best week of 2020 this week. Daniels is only owned in 1% of Dynasty Owner leagues even though his salary is only $690,000. If you need a TE for Week 7, go out and get Daniels in the Free Agent Auction and put him in your Starting lineup. It worked last week with Anthony Firkser and can work again this week.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Next up is reviewing the Week 6 Bench or Practice Squad recommendations to see how those did.

  • QB: Tom Brady – 20.3 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • RB: Aaron Jones – 13.1 (Bad recommendation)
  • WR: Cooper Kupp – 4.2 (Good recommendation)
  • TE: Noah Fant – DNP

An average week with one Good, one Just Ok and one Bad recommendation. Noah Fant didn’t play so we won’t count him. The G.O.A.T. Tom Brady finished a little bit behind our Starter recommendation Kyle Allen with 20.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to finish just outside the Top 12 QBs at #14. That counts as Just Ok. Aaron Jones didn’t have a great week, but his 13.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points was a Top 20 RB performance which means he should have been a Starter and thus, recommending him for the Bench was Bad. For the second week in a row, the WR Bench recommendation was Good as Cooper Kupp managed just 4.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. So far this year, it’s been at least one Good Bench recommendation per week, but only two of them one time. It’s time for a second week with two (or more) Good Bench recommendations in Week 7.

Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN): Tannehill has played very well this season with only one poor game (14.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 3 versus Minnesota). The Pittsburgh defense is allowing a mere 19.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game to the opposition’s starting QB through their first five games. They haven’t exactly faced the best QBs in the NFL in that time (Daniel Jones, Jeff Driskel, Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield), but have not allowed more than 24.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to any of them. They had their bye in Week 4 unexpectedly because of a COVID-19 outbreak involving their Week 7 opponent, the Tennessee Titans. Will the Pittsburgh defense be fired up to play Tennessee finally and keep their unbeaten record or will Tannehill show he’s a better QB than all the QBs who have played Pittsburgh already and expose the Pittsburgh defense as not that good? Bet on the former and Bench Tannehill this week.

James Robinson (RB – JAX): While he’s still the overall #8 RB in Dynasty Owner right now, James Robinson has been pretty average the past three weeks, scoring 12.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per week in that time. In the first three games of the season, he averaged 21.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. In the two weeks he hasn’t scored a TD, he’s only produced 10.0 and 9.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. This week, he faces a Chargers defense that has yet to allow a rushing TD to a RB this season and averages only allowing 16.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per week despite facing off against Top 12 RBs every week (Joe Mixon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Mike Davis, Ronald Jones and Alvin Kamara). Even though Dynasty Owners probably will start him anyway since RBs are so hard to find, Robinson probably isn’t worth putting in your Starting lineup this week.

CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL): This would be Michael Gallup, but he’s ranked as the #39 WR in Dynasty Owner right now, so he shouldn’t be a Starter. Both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are in the Top 10, but that was largely built off the work they did with Dak Prescott at QB. Both had good performances last week against Arizona (Cooper had 20.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and Lamb had 12.4 points). However, most of Lamb’s points (11.0) came in garbage time late in the third quarter and the fourth quarter when the Cowboys trailed by more than 20 points and did almost nothing but throw the ball. It’ll be tougher for Dalton and the Cowboys to throw against the Football Team as the team ranks second in passing yards allowed with 207 yards per game and ninth in sacks with 16 total. This choice could easily have been Amari Cooper as he has tended to not perform well in road games as a Cowboy, but that’s been less true this year – maybe because of the lack of crowds. Therefore, Lamb is the pick so put him on the Bench this week.

Hayden Hurst (TE – ATL):  Surprisingly, Hayden Hurst is the #9 ranked TE in Dynasty Owner right now. He was drafted on average as the #9 TE with an ADP of 93.8. He has scored 3 TDs, but is only averaging 3.2 receptions and 37.8 receiving yards per game. That’s what happens when you have Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage on your team, you become the fourth option. Now, he faces a Lions defense that has allowed only 10 receptions to TEs this season. Something tells me that Matt Ryan is going to look more towards Julio, Ridley and Gage this week against the Lions or maybe run the ball with Todd Gurley and Brian Hill against a Lions defense that gives up 123.8 yards per game to RBs on the ground. Hopefully your Dynasty Owner team has a better option so you can Bench Hurst.

Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week – Prince of Helaire vs. Beaumont Riders

It’s time for our seventh Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week for the 2020 season. This week, we have a battle for first place in League #37205 between the 5-1 Prince of Helaire vs. the 4-2 Beaumont Riders. Not only are they in first and second place but they just pulled off a trade with the Prince of Helaire getting Kareem Hunt in return for sending Jonathan Taylor to the Beaumont Riders. Thanks to Prince of Helaire owner Stuart Spackman (@stuspackman) for sending me the details of the trade and this matchup. The projections are close so let’s dive in.

Based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, the Beaumont Riders should pull the mild upset and move into a tie at 5-2 with the Prince of Helaire. Beaumont Riders are projected to win by only 4.1 points (137.0 to 132.9). Stu must be confident in his team and that the projections are wrong if he’s sending the details of this game, so let’s look each team’s current Starting lineup:

The Starting lineups projected scores (not pictured here) are super close with Beaumont Riders holding a slight advantage (123.5 to 122.4). Both teams have outstanding WRs with Beaumont Riders spending a significant portion of their salary cap ($51 million) on three players, their Starters at WR and FLEX (Davante Adams, Mike Evans and Amari Cooper). Of course, those three guys are projected to score 58.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and if they do, it’ll be money well spent.

Let’s look at both Benches next to check out where Beaumont Riders are gaining their advantage.

The Bench QB competition between Nick Foles and Andy Dalton is projected to be a blowout for Dalton (23.6 to 15.2), which provides quite a bit of the overall Beaumont Riders advantage from Bench scoring (67.6 to 52.3). Not sure if that will turn out to happen, but we’ll find out on Tuesday.

Bravo to both owners for being able to field full Starting lineups and Benches this week. Good drafting and team management there, not surprising since both teams are fighting for the top spot and a first round bye in their league.

Conclusion

Is the Matchup of the Week going to be as close as the Giants-Eagles game? More importantly, what about your weekly Dynasty Owner matchup? Hopefully, yours is a battle for first place or at least an important one on your road to the Playoffs. For those of you in the Chase for the Ring, every matchup is important as you need victories in order to win your League, so you have a chance to win the Ring.

Please read the preview article each and every week. Maybe your team will be featured in a future Match-Up of the Week. If you want your team featured, then just tweet me (@SteveVT33) and check out next week’s preview to see if your matchup was chosen. Remember that there will be a recap article coming out every Tuesday and a preview article posted every Friday throughout the Dynasty Owner season. We will also have articles from Chris Wolf (@ckwolf21), Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) and Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl) during the season as well.

There will also be a weekly Tuesday Live YouTube podcast at 3 PM (Eastern) / Noon (Pacific). The podcast series with myself and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer will continue with weekly live videos on Wednesdays and Fridays on the Dynasty Owner channel on YouTube. You can watch them live or catch a replay anytime and find older videos and tutorials there as well. Tune in to learn more about Dynasty Owner, see how our predictions did and help you set your weekly lineup. Subscribe to the YouTube channel and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner has 539 subscribers on YouTube now and thank you all for watching and listening. All of this great content is available to help you win your weekly matchup, your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

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