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Week 10 Preview – The Masters of Fantasy Football

Week 10 Preview – The Masters of Fantasy Football

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

We have a tradition unlike any other (The Masters) being played during the middle of football season this year instead of in early April. This has caused some changes to the usual NFL schedule as there are more late games than early games (6 late vs. 5 early). Traditionally, there are more early games but if the Masters has to be played in November, then the NFL game times had to get changed.

Usually when things are as new as Dynasty Owner, it’s difficult to have any long-term traditions. Dynasty Owner is ahead of the curve as we do have the Ring as our tradition. It’s our version of the green jacket given to the winner of the Masters. We have only had one Ring winner so far, but will be crowning a second one at the end of December with a big ceremony planned for some time next year. It’s just like the Masters champions dinner, except instead of Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson and Tiger Woods eating a fancy plated dinner with waiters at Augusta National, the Ring winner gets lunch at Chipotle with Paul, Tim and Seth. If you’re lucky, maybe you can get extra guacamole.

Another Dynasty Owner tradition is to highlight individual teams and Dynasty Owners in various ways. Contenders in the Chase for the Ring appear on the weekly Tuesday podcast and two teams are always featured in our weekly Match-up of the Week. That’s right, every week, we look at one Dynasty Owner game, check out the overall projected score and then each team’s Starters and Bench to see how their current lineups are projected to produce.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of November 13th.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

First, let’s take a look at how my Week 9 Starter recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok):

  • QB: Derek Carr – 18.7 (Bad recommendation)
  • RB: La’Mical Perine – 5.8 (Bad recommendation)
  • WR: Marvin Hall – 6.1 (Bad recommendation)
  • TE: Jordan Akins – 3.9 (Bad recommendation)

These recommendations haven’t been the greatest, but this is the first week all season in which all four of them were Bad. Derek Carr was near the bottom of the QB pack in Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week with 18.7 while the rest of the recommended players didn’t hit double digits. Frank Gore had twice as many carries as La’Mical Perine for some reason, so Perine didn’t score many points. Both Marvin Hall and Jordan Akins had some opportunities with five and four targets respectively, but other players at their position were more productive. Let’s forget try to start a new tradition of four Good recommendations of players who should be Starters for your Dynasty Owner team.

Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE): Mayfield is only averaging 19.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game, putting him as the #23 ranked QB in Dynasty Owner. Only once has he exceeded that average by more than 2.0 points. That was back in Week 7 against Cincinnati when he put up 44.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. The rest of the time, it’s been pretty pedestrian numbers he’s putting up. The good news for Baker and Browns fans is that the Houston defense has given up more than average points to the opposing QB ever since Bill O’Brien was fired. In three of its last four games (and the fourth doesn’t count since it was Jake Luton’s first ever NFL game), the opposing QBs has gotten 7.6 more points per game than their season average. Add that to Baker’s average and he’s at 26.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, which is probably enough to be a low-end QB1 this week. That’s why Baker Mayfield should be in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup this week.

Rex Burkhead (RB – NE): This goes against the traditional belief that it’s difficult to trust New England RBs because you never know what Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels are going to do on a week-to-week basis. This week, it’s possible that Damien Harris doesn’t play with a chest injury and also that the Patriots bring Sony Michel off the Injured Reserve list and then have four RBs to split carries and catches, not just three of them. Regardless of whether Harris and/or Michel plays, both are likely to be ineffective since the Baltimore defense is only allowing 77.8 yards rushing per game to RBs, one of the lowest averages in the NFL. They are in the middle of the pack with an average of 5.6 receptions and 51 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs. In the past two weeks without Julian Edelman, New England has given the ball to Burkhead more than pass catching RB James White (22 touches for Burkhead to 10 for White). Burkhead is just on the edge of being in Starting lineups already as the #31 RB in Dynasty Owner. Move him into your RB2 or FLEX Starting lineup spot this week.

Darnell Mooney (WR – CHI): Mooney is the overall #57 WR right now in Dynasty Owner and the clear third WR in Chicago. The rookie fifth round draft pick is well ahead of second year WR Riley Ridley. Dynasty Owners were taking both of those guys around the same time in Dynasty Owner drafts (ADP 265.3 for Ridley vs. 268.6 for Mooney). And he’s closing in on Anthony Miller for the WR2 spot as they have almost an almost identical number of Dynasty Owner fantasy points (79.2 for Miller vs. 76.5 for Mooney). With RB David Montgomery not practicing on Thursday and still in the NFL concussion protocol, it feels like the Bears might have to pass their way to victory on Monday night against the Vikings. Especially since no one else on the Bears has even 100 yards rushing besides Montgomery (Mitchell Trubisky ranks second on the team with 90 rushing yards). Mooney led the Bears in targets last week with 11 as Nick Foles attempted 52 passes. That might happen again, so go ahead and get Mooney into your Starting lineup this week.

Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA): Even though he was drafted to be a Starting TE (ADP 108.1), Gesicki hasn’t performed like one for most of the 2020 season. He hasn’t caught a TD pass since Week 3 and has only gotten a total of 9.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in two games with Tua Tagovailoa at QB for the Dolphins. However, in just the past two weeks, the Chargers have allowed 11.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to Broncos TE Noah Fant and 13.2 points to Raiders TE Darren Waller. Gesicki should see more targets this week with Preston Williams out of the lineup and Isaiah Ford traded away. Pencil Gesicki in for double digit points this week and put him in your Starting lineup.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Next up is reviewing the Week 9 Bench or Practice Squad recommendations to see how those did.

  • QB: Tom Brady – 1.5 (Good recommendation)
  • RB: Ezekiel Elliott – 8.9 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • WR: Mike Evans – 10.4 (Good recommendation)
  • TE: Mark Andrews – 5.2 (Good recommendation)

The Bench recommendations of Buccaneers QB Tom Brady and WR Mike Evans both ended up as Good with Brady having the worst QB week of anybody in Week 9 with a lowly 1.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and Evans had 10.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. That left him barely inside the Top 50 WRs for the week. Recommending having Mark Andrews on your Bench was also Good as he only had 5.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Ezekiel Elliott was barely inside the Top 30 RBs this week, only two points out of the Top 24, so that recommendation was really Just Ok. Three Good and one Just Ok recommendations equals the first week for three Good recommendations and first week without a Bad Bench recommendation all season. Hooray for me!  Now, let’s continue with that tradition in Week 10.

Tom Brady (QB – TB): Looking at the pattern of this season’s performances by the G.O.A.T. worked last week, so since he’s playing another NFC team (Carolina) this week, we’ll stick with it. Back in Week 2 against Carolina, the G.O.A.T. was held to 10.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, which was his worst performance before last week’s 1.5 Dynasty Owner point performance. The Carolina defense has faced a Top 12 QB seven times this season (the G.O.A.T., Herbert, Murray, Ryan, Brees, Ryan again, and Mahomes) and held that QB to under 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in four of those games (including the game against the G.O.A.T.). The AFC-NFC split has widened as well after last week (42.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in three games versus AFC opponents and 16.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in six games versus NFC opponents). The pattern continues this week, so leave the G.O.A.T. on your Dynasty Owner Bench again.

Mike Davis (RB – CAR): With Christian McCaffrey expected to miss Week 10 with a shoulder injury, it’s Mike Davis leading the Carolina backfield once again. That’s not an enviable position as Tampa Bay has only allowed 502 rushing yards in nine games this season, lowest in the league even though they have yet to be on bye. In the three weeks prior to McCaffrey’s return, Davis only averaged 9.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game as Curtis Samuel emerged to score rushing TDs in two of those three games. Benching Davis against Tampa Bay this week is advised for all of his Dynasty Owners who probably rode him while McCaffrey was out and expected to get another week out of him in Week 10.

Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA): It was just three weeks ago against the Cardinals that Lockett scored 59.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in a single game, the highest point total of the season. However, in the past two games, he has scored only 7.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against the 49ers and 8.0 against the Bills. While Lockett is ranked as the #4 WR in Dynasty Owner, his ranking is built on two games, the Cardinals game and a 37.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance in Week 3 against Dallas. Those two games account for almost 60% of his scoring this season. Last year in Week 14 against the Rams, Lockett was held to 8.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. That’ll happen again so get Lockett on your Bench this week.

Mark Andrews (TE – BAL):  Another repeat choice from last week is Mark Andrews. He was the second TE selected on average in Dynasty Owner drafts with an ADP of 37.1, just barely ahead of overall #1 TE Travis Kelce at 37.2, but he hasn’t lived up to expectations as he’s the #9 ranked TE in Dynasty Owner after nine weeks. He continues to be TD dependent, scoring just 4.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in games in which he doesn’t score a TD. The bad news for Andrews’ Dynasty Owners is that New England has only given up one TD to a TE this season (Foster Moreau of the Raiders), even though they have played three of the best TEs – Travis Kelce (10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points), Darren Waller (2.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) and George Kittle (10.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). On average, TEs are getting only 2.9 receptions per game for 36.75 yards while playing against New England. Keep Andrews on your Bench again this week if you have a better option.

Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week

Out of Luck vs. Young Gunz

The tenth Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week for the 2020 season features two beta users who are having excellent seasons. On one side, we have Billy and Out of Luck who started Week 10 in 24th place in the Chase for the Ring, but apparently not in first place in their League with a 6-3 record. That’s because their opponent this week are Vinny and the Young Gunz who stand at 7-2. Only one of these teams can survive and have a chance for the Ring and this week might go a long way to determining which one of them it is.

Based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, it’s going to be a close game. Despite two Bench players on bye and getting the Young Gunz zero points, they are projected to prevail by a 135.9-131.7 margin. Does the Young Gunz projected margin of victory come from their Starters or the Bench? Let’s check and see.

It’s a little bit of both as the Young Gunz have a 3.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy point advantage from their Starters. Kyler Murray from the Young Gunz is projected for 8.2 more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than Justin Herbert from Out of Luck. Young Gunz also have an advantage at the RB2 position (Leonard Fournette over Giovani Bernard), but Billy, the owner of Out of Luck, reports that he just traded for Mike Davis (who he got for La’Mical Perine and a third round draft pick), so adding Davis to his team should change these projections and make it a much tighter game than currently projected. Bernard will shift to the Bench, so let’s check out how those Benches are presently constructed.

Even without a Bench kicker and Geoff Swaim as their Bench TE who got them zero points on Thursday night, the advantage in Bench points goes to Young Gunz by 4.8 points. The Young Gunz’s RBs and WRs are tilting the advantage in Bench points to their team, more than making up for Swaim and Zuerlein on bye.

Conclusion

Traditions can make things more special – turn good things into great things, but they take time to build. The Masters wasn’t a tradition unlike any other in its second year. According to this article (https://www.thescore.com/pga/news/742292), it was apparently first used by Jim Nantz in 1986, over 50 years after the tournament started.

Fortunately, Paul created the Ring to be awarded to the top scoring League winner right away, so we have had our Dynasty Owner tradition since our inaugural year. Having the Chase for the Ring contenders appear on the weekly Tuesday live podcast started out this year to highlight individual Dynasty Owners and their teams. Hopefully that tradition continues, and Paul and Tim continue to build more of them as we keep going.

Hopefully, it’s your personal tradition to read the preview article each and every week. Maybe your team will be featured in a future Match-Up of the Week. If you want your team featured, then just tweet me (@SteveVT33) and check out next week’s preview to see if your matchup was chosen. Remember that there will be a recap article coming out every Tuesday and a preview article posted every Friday throughout the Dynasty Owner season. We will also have articles every week from both Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) and Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl) during the season as well.

There will also be the traditional weekly Tuesday Live podcast at 3 PM (Eastern) / Noon (Pacific) and the weekly podcast series with myself and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer on Wednesdays at 1 PM (Eastern) / 10 AM (Pacific) on the Dynasty Owner channel on YouTube. We had a special live Thursday night podcast this week and you can catch a replay of that or any of the other Dynasty Owner videos and tutorials on YouTube as well. Tune in to learn more about Dynasty Owner, see how our predictions did and help you set your weekly lineup. Subscribe to the YouTube channel and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner has 554 subscribers on YouTube now and thank you all for watching and listening. All of this great content is available to help you win your weekly matchup, your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

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