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Week 9 Preview – Trade Talk

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

The NFL trade deadline came and went on Tuesday with a few deals (Isaiah Ford to New England and some defensive players switching teams), but nothing major at all. The rumored trade of Will Fuller, or any Texans WR, to Green Bay never materialized and the deadline came and went without much action. It’s a different story when you get to fantasy football in general and Dynasty Owner in particular.

Fantasy football owners love to talk trades and analyze trades. Some even actually make reasonable offers and get one done. Dynasty Owner is no different. What is different is that Dynasty Owner Tom Ayling (@flanker546) created the Twitter hashtag #DOTRADES so all Dynasty Owners can see and comment on each other’s trades after they’ve gone down. That’s not happening on ESPN, Sleeper or any other fantasy football platform.

In my beta league, eight out of the 12 owners made a trade in October and one team who didn’t (my team) has a deal cooking for next week. That seems like a lot of trades – more than in my other leagues, both redraft and dynasty – but it would seem that trading is more difficult in Dynasty Owner because of the contracts and salary cap. However, the fact that Dynasty Owner requires more engagement from its Owners might be overriding those obstacles and creating more trades. What do you think? Comment on one of our YouTube videos or tweet using #DOTRADES and tag me (@SteveVT33) and Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) to give us your opinion.

One thing that we aren’t going to trade is our weekly Match-up of the Week. Every week, we look at one Dynasty Owner game, check out the overall projected score and then each team’s Starters and Bench to see how their current lineups are projected to produce.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of November 6th.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

First, let’s take a look at how my Week 8 Starter recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok):

  • QB: Baker Mayfield – 9.0 (Bad recommendation)
  • RB: Jamycal Hasty – 10.0 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • WR: Marquez Callaway – Did Not Play
  • TE: Ryan Izzo – 4.4 (Bad recommendation)

For the first time since Week 2, there were no Good recommendation last week. Baker Mayfield had a Bad game in the bad weather in Cleveland and while Ryan Izzo had his best game of the season with 4.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, it was still not enough to even rate as Just Ok. Marquez Callaway would have done well, but he ended up not playing this week and Jamycal Hasty’s performance of 10.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points was a very low end RB2 or FLEX starter, so recommending him was Just Ok. I’d like to trade my picks in Week 8 for four better ones this week. Honestly, it’s past time for a four Good recommendation week, so here we go again with four players who are recommended as Starters in Week 9.

Derek Carr (QB – LV): There are effectively three tiers of QBs in Dynasty Owner this season. Tier 1 are the ten QBs averaging 28.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game so far this season ranging from Russell Wilson (40.4) to The G.O.A.T. (28.3). Tier 2 are the second set of ten QBs who are averaging between 22.0 and 25.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the top of this tier and Carson Wentz at the bottom. Finally, we have the Tier 3 guys who are averaging less than 22.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. This tier is where you look for the QB to play for a week when your top QB is out on bye or facing a really tough match-up. Derek Carr heads up this tier and this week, he gets one of those defenses (Los Angeles Chargers) that he can produce more than an average game against for his Dynasty Owners. Last week, Drew Lock (another member of Tier 3) had himself quite a good second half against the Chargers and scored 30.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Carr will do that this week against the Chargers, so he can be in your Starting lineup. You likely don’t even need to trade for him as he’s only rostered in 45% of Dynasty Owner leagues.

La’Mical Perine (RB – NYJ): Perine has been splitting time pretty evenly with the ageless wonder Frank Gore in the Jets backfield in the three games since Le’Veon Bell was released. He’s been slightly better than Gore (8.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game vs. 6.7 for Gore) in those games despite slightly fewer touches (12.0 for Gore vs. 10.7 for Perine). Starting a Jets RB, especially one splitting time doesn’t seem like a good play until you consider that they are playing against New England and since the Patriots bye week, the Pats have given up an average of 174 yards rushing per game, including 190 yards to Buffalo last week and 197 yards to the 49ers the week before. Even Adam Gase can’t screw this up, can he? Don’t get him confused for his older brother Samaje who is on the Bengals and on bye this week. Start La’Mical on Monday Night Football against New England.

Marvin Hall (WR – DET): Kenny Golladay went down with a hip injury last week and Hall stepped in and scored 15.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against the Colts. Golladay was averaging 16.45 points per game in the four games he played this season, and someone has to step up again this week for the Lions against the Vikings. It could be Hall again and he showed some rapport with QB Matthew Stafford last week. If Stafford doesn’t play, then it’ll be either backup QB Chase Daniel or David Blough. Hall might have better rapport with them than any other WR on the Lions roster since they should be running scout team plays together. His contract is only $690,000 for this year and he’s still only rostered in 10% of Dynasty Owner leagues, up from 1% before Jay Poundsee’s Tuesday free agent target article, but till not very high. Dynasty Owners in the playoff hunt with Golladay or any of the many other injured WRs around should consider grabbing Hall and inserting him in their Starting lineup this week. He might only be a one-week solution, but every game and point counts in Dynasty Owner.

Jordan Akins (TE – HOU): Akins is currently ranked as the #31 TE in Dynasty Owner after missing the last three games. In his place, Darren Fells had two great games with 13.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points versus the Jaguars in Week 5 and 20.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points versus the Titans in Week 6. Jacksonville has allowed an average of 11.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game to their opponent’s top TE this season while facing just two of the top 10 TEs (T.J. Hockenson and Jonnu Smith). This bodes well for Akins in his return from injury, so get him off your IR list and into your Starting lineup this week.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Next up is reviewing the Week 8 Bench or Practice Squad recommendations to see how those did.

  • QB: Josh Allen – 13.0 (Good recommendation)
  • RB: Melvin Gordon – 10.7 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • WR: Justin Jefferson – 5.6 (Good recommendation)
  • TE: T.J. Hockenson – 13.5 (Bad recommendation)

A better than average week two Good, one Just Ok and one Bad recommendation. The two Good ones were quite Good as Josh Allen relied on his running game and only had 13.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against New England, while Justin Jefferson had just 5.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against Green Bay as Dalvin Cook ran wild over the Packers defense. Melvin Gordon was Just Ok against his former team in the Los Angeles Chargers, while T.J. Hockenson lost me bragging rights with Tim with his 13.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance. Still looking for my first Good RB Bench recommendation and it’s a big name who I’m pegging for a poor performance in Week 9. Let’s see who it is:

Tom Brady (QB – TB): The G.O.A.T. has become what some fantasy analysts, such as me, have criticized Aaron Rodgers for becoming over the past couple of seasons. That’s inconsistent. Overall, the stats are good for Brady. He’s averaging 28.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game and is the #8 ranked QB in Dynasty Owner. However, if you look closer, you’ll see that he has great games (49.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points versus the Raiders and 46.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points versus the Chargers) mixed in with bad ones (10.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points versus the Panthers and 17.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points versus the Bears). If you look even closer, you start to see a pattern. He’s averaging 19.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in five games against NFC teams, with a high of 25.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last week versus the Giants, as opposed to 42.6 points in three games against AFC teams. This week, the Buccaneers play the Saints for the second time. Brady had 23.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in their first matchup back in Week 1. Will he be better against them the second time around or are we seeing a pattern here? I vote pattern and would Bench the G.O.A.T. this week.

Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL): Elliott is still the #5 RB on the Dynasty Owner season, but it’s been a rough time for him since Dak Prescott got injured. With Andy Dalton and Ben DiNucci under center for the Cowboys for the past three games, Elliott has averaged just 8.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game after averaging 21.7 points per game in the first five games of the season. The Cowboys play the Steelers this week and surprisingly, the Steelers haven’t been great at holding down opponent RBs this year. Opposition RBs are averaging 16.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game against them. Only against Kareem Hunt of the Browns did they hold the top RB to under 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (7.7 for Hunt in Week 6). However, don’t expect the Steelers to let Elliott run much with Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush at QB so Bench Elliott this week.

Mike Evans (WR – TB): The G.O.A.T. has been lobbying to play with Antonio Brown again for over a year after one game with him for New England in 2019. In that game, Brown had 15.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points with Julian Edelman coming in second among WRs with 9.1 points. Brown was targeted 8 times, the most on the team. Brown is also apparently living at Brady’s house in Tampa right now, while none of the other Buccaneers WRs are. There appears to be some kind of bromance alive and well in Tampa with Brady and Brown. The loser in this scenario is Mike Evans. Evans has been fine overall this year for Tampa, but is mostly thriving when there’s no other WR for Tom to have eyes for as he’s averaging 20.05 Dynasty Owner fantasy points without Chris Godwin in the lineup, but just 7.3 with him there. Bench Evans until you see if he can get the G.O.A.T. to take his eyes off of Antonio Brown.

Mark Andrews (TE – BAL):  Despite having given up 13.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last week to T.J. Hockenson, the Colts defense has still not given up a TD to a TE this season. They are also allowing a NFL low 31.7 yards per game to TEs this season. Mark Andrews has been a TD dependent TE so far this season. He has five TDs overall and two games with two TD receptions plus one game with one TD. In those three games, he is averaging 20.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. In the other four games in which he hasn’t scored a TD, he is averaging only 4.35 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Bet on the Colts keeping up their streak of not allowing a TD reception by a TE this week and leave Andrews on your Bench.

Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week – Baby Got Dak vs. Serenity Now

For our ninth Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week for the 2020 season, we are featuring one of only three undefeated teams in the Chase for the Ring Top 25. Sitting in 21st place after eight weeks is Baby Got Dak who are 8-0. They face off against a strong 6-2 team in Serenity Now. You don’t have to go undefeated to win the Ring, but you do have to win your League and it’ll be tough for Baby Got Dak to do both if they need to face formidable teams like Serenity Now in their League playoffs.

Based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, it’s going to be a close, high-scoring game with Serenity Now pulling out the victory  (140.2 to 136.2). Does Serenity Now have the lead from their Starting lineup or Bench? Let’s examine their Starters first to see how they match up.

An advantage of 8.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for Serenity Now from the Starting lineups. Baby Got Dak has the better RBs (Alvin Kamara and Melvin Gordon) by 7.5 points over Phillip Lindsay and Josh Jacobs, while Serenity Now has a trio of great WRs in DK Metcalf, Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill who are projected to be 21.5 points better than A.J. Brown, Robby Anderson and Mike Evans for Baby Got Dak. With Nick Mullens at QB, Serenity Now could open up a lead on Thursday night or be wishing they started their other QB. Let’s look at the Benches to find out who that QB is:

It’s Washington Football Team QB Kyle Allen who’s on Serenity Now’s Bench in favor of Mullens. Based on projections (23.5 for Mullens vs. 20.8 for Allen), it’s the right call, but we’ll find out on Sunday for sure. Baby Got Dak has the much stronger Bench, particularly at RB as J.D. McKissic and Leonard Fournette are expected to outscore Jeremy McNichols by 14.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, which is almost 3.0 points added to their final score. Serenity Now could close the Bench points gap and increase their projected margin of victory by promoting another RB or kicker from their Practice Squad, making a trade or using the Free Agent Auction to add to their Bench and close their projected deficit in our Match-up of the Week.

Conclusion

It’s almost time this week to trade in your General Manager’s hat for your Head Coach’s one as we get closer to Sunday. During the week is time for looking at other team’s rosters, trying to analyze your own team and figure out your needs for the week and rest of the season and maybe communicate with other Dynasty Owners about a player’s availability for a trade. Once the weekend rolls around, you pretty much know who’s available on your team for the week and need to move forward with analyzing your lineup. While the NFL trade deadline may have passed, Dynasty Owners can trade up until the playoffs and then a freeze on trades (and Free Agent Auction pickups) is instituted and only lifted once League Champions and a Chase for the Ring winner have been crowned.

Please read the preview article each and every week. Maybe your team will be featured in a future Match-Up of the Week. If you want your team featured, then just tweet me (@SteveVT33) and check out next week’s preview to see if your matchup was chosen. Remember that there will be a recap article coming out every Tuesday and a preview article posted every Friday throughout the Dynasty Owner season. We will also have articles every week from both Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) and Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl) during the season as well. Follow all of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter.

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