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Week 16 Preview – Déjà vu All Over Again

Week 16 Preview – Déjà vu All Over Again

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Yogi Berra was right about this. It feels like there’s plenty of repetition in Week 16 of the NFL as well as at the end of the Dynasty Owner season. The NFL has the Browns playing in New York for the second week in a row, just like San Francisco did earlier in the year and New England did recently with back-to-back games in Los Angeles. San Francisco plays its third consecutive game in Arizona with a road game against the Cardinals after two “home” games there the past two weeks.

In Dynasty Owner, we’re seeing some things again as well. We still have quite a few 7-6 and 8-5 teams who won last week and get to play for a League Championship this week. The Chase standings look familiar to anyone who’s been checking them regularly. Despite losing several teams from the Top 25 after last week’s games, we really have only one truly “new” team added (welcome to SchmajeffreyRun making their inaugural appearance in the Top 25).

For the Match-up of the Week, we’re going to do two of them again. Seth’s team (CLE Piggy Pauls) won last week so we need to follow through and see if he can go all the way and win a title. And just like last week, we’ll also preview the only game with two teams in the Top 25 of the Chase. Spoiler alert – this match-up may be familiar as they were featured as the Match-up of the Week earlier this season as well.

Finally, are we going to see a repeat of 2019? Eddie and New York’s Strongest won the regular season title and captured the Ring last year. This year, Barbee Kilgore sat at the top of the standings during the regular season and is still there now. They might not be undefeated, but can they hold to win the Ring?

This article will look the same as the other 15 weeks with a set of recommendations for your Starting lineup as well as some recommendations for players to leave on your Bench or Practice Squad. As usual, there will be our look at the overall projected score for both of our Match-up of the Week games. We will, as usual, peek at the Starters and Bench for all of these teams to see how their current lineups are projected to produce.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of December 23rd.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

It’s time to take our next to last look at how my Starter recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok):

  • QB: Nick Mullens – 14.6 (Bad recommendation)
  • RB: Lynn Bowden – 10.6 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • WR: Keke Coutee – 13.3 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • TE: Cole Kmet – 3.2 (Bad recommendation)

The poor Starter recommendations continued in the playoff semi-finals as we had two Just Ok and two Bad recommendations. Neither Nick Mullens (14.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) nor Cole Kmet (3.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) did very well, and those recommendations were Bad. The selections of Lynn Bowden and Keke Coutee were Just Ok as both had more than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and finished just inside the Top 30 at their respective positions. Let’s hope we don’t have a third straight playoff week without a Good recommendation. For the last time in 2020, here are the recommendations for players who should be in your Starting lineup to help you win in Week 16:

Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE): For the past four weeks, Mayfield has been the best QB in Dynasty Owner. He’s averaged 33.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points over that time to move up to be the #16 QB for the entire season. His average over that time is better than Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Jackson and everyone else in the NFL. In that same time period, his opponent this week, the New York Jets, have allowed opposing QBs to average 30.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. All this lines up perfectly for his Dynasty Owners to put Mayfield in their Starting lineups for the playoff or Loser’s Bracket tournament finals and have him lead your team to victory.

Zack Moss (RB – BUF): Moss had the best game of his rookie season back in Week 8 against New England with 20.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (81 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs). He also had 81 rushing yards last week versus Denver, which tied his mark set in Week 8 for the most rushing yards in a game. In the past two weeks, New England has let rookie RBs run all over them, allowing 171 rushing yards and 23.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to Cam Akers of the Rams and 122 rushing yards plus a rushing TD for 23.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to Salvon Ahmed of the Dolphins. They also gave up 24.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to Kenyan Drake of the Cardinals back in Week 12. Moss may split time with Devin Singletary and only be the #52 ranked RB in Dynasty Owner, but he should be in your Starting lineup this week.

Emmanuel Sanders (WR – NO): The Saints have Drew Brees back at QB, but are now missing their best WR in Michael Thomas. That means someone needs to step up and be the guy Brees throws it to this week against Minnesota. The top candidate for the job is Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders has played in five games this season with Brees but without Thomas and averaged 13.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in those games. His scoring average in the seven games he played with Thomas in the lineup (including games without Brees at QB) is five points lower (8.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). Brees looked rusty in his first game off Injured Reserve versus Kansas City in Week 15 but the expectation is that he’ll improve and play better against Minnesota. That bodes well for the #48 ranked WR in Dynasty Owner, so get him in your Starting lineup.

Austin Hooper (TE – CLE): Ten. That’s how many TEs have scored double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points when playing the Jets this season. Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki all did it, but the four of them are Top 12 TEs. There are six other TEs who did it and are well outside of the Top 12, such as Jordan Reed, Tyler Higbee, Adam Shaheen, Mo Allie-Cox, Tyler Kroft and Will Dissly. This week, Austin Hooper has the opportunity to exploit the Jets defense. His QB has been playing great recently and with the Jets’ struggles against the TE, it stands to reason that he will join the double-digit scorers club in Week 16. That’s good enough to make him a TE worth having in your Starting lineup.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Let’s look back at Week 15 to see how those Bench or Practice Squad recommendations did.

  • QB: Ryan Tannehill – 45.7 (Bad recommendation)
  • RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire – 9.3 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • WR: Tyler Lockett – 7.4 (Good recommendation)
  • TE: Dalton Schultz – 9.4 (Just Ok recommendation)

Another week with one Good recommendation, although having two Just Ok recommendations was an improvement from last week when we had just one. We only had one Bad recommendation, but it was really Bad as Ryan Tannehill was the Dynasty Owner Player of the Week with 45.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Dalton Schultz were both held to just under 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, but got close enough to make those Recommendations fall into the Just Ok category. Finally, on the bright side, recommending Tyler Lockett for the Bench was Good as he only had 7.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to finish outside the Top 50 WRs for the week. A couple of the picks in Week 16 are flashbacks to Week 13 when both of them were listed here and were actually Good recommendations, while the other two should have been on your Bench in recent weeks. There’s still an outside chance to have more Good than Bad recommendations this year, we just need at least 3 Good ones and no Bad ones. Here are the Bench picks for Week 16.  

Russell Wilson (QB – SEA): It’s been a rough couple of weeks for Russell Wilson. After really cooking at the beginning of the season, Wilson has cooled off. He hasn’t thrown for 300 yards in a game since back in Week 9 against Buffalo and has gotten two or more TDs just twice in the past six weeks. Since the Buffalo game, he has averaged just 19.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. That stretch includes a 9.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy point outing against this week’s opponent, the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have the NFL’s best pass defense, even if they didn’t show it last week against the Jets. Russell may get cooking again for the Seahawks, but it’s probably not going to happen in Week 16, so leave him on your Dynasty Owner Bench.

James Conner (RB – PIT): Conner is expected to return to the Steelers’ lineup for their Week 16 game against the Indianapolis Colts, but don’t automatically return him to your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup for several reasons. First, the Steelers have been pretty bad the past three weeks. Second, Benny Snell played pretty well against the Bengals last week with 19.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and according to reports, may have earned additional playing time. Third, Conner’s best games were all in the first half when he averaged 16.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. In the four games he has played in the second half, it’s down to just 6.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Finally, if you flashback to Week 14, before he missed last week with an injury, he had his worst game of the season and only scored 0.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. While he’s technically outside of the Top 24 RBs at #26, he is probably a RB2 or FLEX option for most of his Dynasty Owners still fighting for a title or the 1.13 draft pick. Sit him on your Dynasty Owner Bench in his return.

Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS): With a potentially messy situation at QB for the Football Team this week, it’s best to avoid having McLaurin in your Starting lineup if you can afford to do so. Last week’s starter Dwayne Haskins might get suspended by the team for a violation of team rules. Alex Smith missed last week’s game with a leg injury and may not be healthy enough to return and play this week. That means the Football Team’s starting QB could be either Taylor Heinicke who signed with the team just two weeks ago or rookie Steven Montez who has not played in a NFL game yet. It’ll be difficult for McLaurin to overcome his QB situation this week, so leave him on your Bench.

Hunter Henry (TE – LAC): As the TE with the highest salary in Dynasty Owner ($10.607 million), Henry has been a good solid piece of his Dynasty Owners’ Starting lineups for most of the season. He’s only had one truly bad game (1.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points versus New England in Week 13), but no great games. His best performance was last week’s 17.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy point game against Las Vegas. Will he repeat against another division opponent in Denver this week? Probably not as his recent history against the Broncos isn’t great (7.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 8 and 3.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 13 last year). Plus, the Broncos are pretty good at defending TEs. They did a good job holding both Darren Waller and Travis Kelce to under 7.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in games earlier this season and should be able to do the same to Henry, so Bench him this week.

Seth’s Quest for a Dynasty Owner Title Matchup –

Dynasty Owner Don vs. CLE Piggy Pauls

We continue with Seth’s quest for a Dynasty Owner title as he and his beloved CLE Piggy Pauls were able to overcome the projections to defeat Tim and Real Timo’s Titans in the Crossroads League semi-finals last week. Now, he has to face another member of the Dynasty Owner leadership in Dynasty Owner Don in the finals. Will Seth be the underdog for the third time in these playoffs? Let’s look and see:

Yes indeed! Despite a better regular season record, the CLE Piggy Pauls are an underdog. Just like they have been throughout the playoffs. Seth was the #4 seed in the playoffs and Dynasty Owner Don had an 8-5 regular season record so he must have been the #6 seed and toppled two higher seeds already to make it this far.

Based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, the CLE Piggy Pauls are projected to lose by a 37.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (134.4 to 97.4). That’s more than his deficit in each of the last two rounds of the playoffs. Let’s check out each team’s Starters and see who’s in there now and if there’s any way Seth can pull off a third consecutive upset victory.

While Dynasty Owner Don has the overall advantage in the Starting lineups, it’s really because of his QB and kicker. His advantage in those two positions is 36.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and he’s projected to win by 37.0. This is where the injury to Seth’s Starting QB (Joe Burrow) really hurts. Seth was able to overcome having Taysom Hill as his Starting QB last week so maybe he can do it again. Let’s check and see who both teams have on the Bench and if Seth has anyone who can make up the gap?

Dynasty Owner Don has the advantage with Bench scoring as well and once again, that advantage comes almost entirely from the QB position. Lamar Jackson from Dynasty Owner Don’s team is projected to score twice as many Dynasty Owner fantasy points as Daniel Jones from the CLE Piggy Pauls (26.2 to 13.1).

Overall, it’s looking like a tough one for Seth and the CLE Piggy Pauls. However, they have overcome the odds in each of the past two weeks, so there’s hope that they can do it again.

Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week #2 –

The Swamp Donkeys vs. Russell Wilson’s War

If our second Match-up of the Week looks familiar, it’s because they were featured back in Week 12. Back then, both of them were in the Top 25 of the Chase for the Ring standings. It’s true now as well and in fact, this is the only Championship game this week featuring two teams in the Chase (just like last week’s Match-up between Bayside Tigers and Jet Jones), as Russell Wilson’s War are #10 while The Swamp Donkeys are #14. Russell Wilson’s War won a close game last time, but who’s going to prevail with a League Championship and shot at the Ring on the line? Let’s look and see:

Based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, Russell Wilson’s War should win by a final score of 162.4-154.5. Both teams are going to need more points, plus a few losses by teams in front of them in the Chase to win the Ring. Let’s check out each team’s Starters and see which team has the best Starting lineup.

It’s close, but Russell Wilson’s War has the Starting lineup advantage by 7.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Their lead is entirely from the 8.0 point advantage that the projections give their kicker (Younghoe Koo) over The Swamp Donkey’s kicker (Matt Gay). Russell Wilson’s War will jump out to the lead on Saturday as they have three players who play then, while all of The Swamp Donkeys’ current Starting lineup are in action on Sunday. Russell Wilson’s War has their QB (Josh Allen) playing on Monday night, so both teams might be watching that game intently to see if they win or not. It might also come down to Bench scoring, so let’s check out the Benches for both teams.

The Bench scoring will be over by Sunday night as neither team has anyone on their current Bench from either the Bills or Patriots. The Bench scoring is almost as tight as it can be with Russell Wilson’s War having a 0.7 point advantage (74.8 to 74.1). The Swamp Donkeys could add three points to their projected Starting lineup by inserting Matt Prater in at kicker over Matt Gay, but neither player is projected to score many points.

Russell Wilson’s War is looking like they will repeat their close victory from Week 12 and win their League Title. The Swamp Donkeys need some help to pull the upset and take this re-match, but the #1 team after the first week can’t be counted out.

Conclusion

Thank you to everyone who made the 2020 season of Dynasty Owner possible. It’s been a lot of fun previewing and recapping the season for all of my fellow Dynasty Owners once again.

Once the playoffs are over, the Free Agent freeze is lifted, and a new season of Dynasty Owner starts. There will be several articles per week on a wide range of subjects from the writing team of myself, Jay Poundsee  (@jaypoundsnfl) and Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk). Please check them out and follow all of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter.

Thanks for reading and Happy Holidays!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

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