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By Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl)
With Dynasty Owner rookie drafts two weeks away its time to start thinking about the players that will go in the third round, or potentially undrafted. I like to call these players lottery tickets or hidden gems. As rebuilding owners, you should try and load up on as many of these players as possible because you shouldn’t be holding onto veterans whose ceiling is severely limited. The lottery tickets you want to target are young players who have possible paths to playing time which almost always tend to be rookies on bad teams. If you look at the Detroit Lions roster for example, you will see the wide receiver depth chart is absolutely wide open, which is something you want to attack after the draft, or in the third, if necessary.
Every year in the NFL we see several players appear out of nowhere and it is hugely beneficial for rebuilding owners to roster those players before the breakout happens. If you go back and look at players that have appeared seemingly out of nowhere you will see that it is typically for a short stretch. When your lottery tickets hit, I highly suggest trading them because of the fact that they do tend to die out rather quickly, and one of the keys to rebuilding is getting the most out of your trades, not the least. I wanted to do this article so that as the rookie drafts approach everyone can be as prepared as possible, especially when it comes to the players most aren’t talking about. Rookie drafts are the easiest way to rebuild a team but can also be one of the most challenging. Rookie picks can be hit or miss from the 1.01 all the way down to the players that go undrafted. A few great examples of this would be in 2020, we had Clyde Edwards-Helaire going as the first rookie drafted (there were no rookie-only Dynasty Owner drafts in 2020), while James Robinson was going undrafted. In 2018, we also saw people in dynasty leagues drafting players like Royce Freeman or Derrius Guice early in the first round of rookie drafts over George Kittle, and D.J. Chark in the third.
What I am trying to insinuate here is that rookies are near crapshoots but can pay huge dividends here on Dynasty Owner. If you sit back and really look at it, you could build an absolute powerhouse by nailing which rookies to draft because of the value their contracts bring. In 2020 if you drafted the correct players, you could have had Justin Jefferson at a salary of $3,280,701 (3 years) scoring 273 points, or you could have had a whopping 15 extra points and DeAndre Hopkins at a salary of $16,200,000 in 2020, but now $27,250,000 (2 years). In Dynasty Owner differences like that can mean the difference between having another two or three elite players on your roster. Having Jefferson over Hopkins would have saved you $12,919,299, or Alvin Kamara ($964,443), Calvin Ridley ($2,725,178), Jonathan Taylor ($1,957,287), CeeDee Lamb ($3,502,503), and still some space left over for free agency. Even with Kamara’s contract going up to $15,000,000 this year, you could still fit all of those players in for Hopkins’ new contract. As you can see when rebuilding in this format it is extremely beneficial to have ample cap space and players with valuable contracts can be key to that.
Over the next 2 weeks I am going to talk about 15 players (8 this week, 7 next week) I feel will go undrafted in the upcoming rookie drafts. I will touch on things like college performance, draft capital, and their path to opportunity. In the coming weeks some of these players are likely to rise or fall and I will touch on this again after the draft. These players will be in no specific order, and I also suggest doing your own research on these guys as well. If you happen to be torn on some of these players, my best advice would be to take who you think could see the field the fastest for their respective teams.
Davis Mills (4 years / $1,304,382) – Quarterback, Houston Texans
Going into the 2018 season in college football Davis Mills was one of the highest regarded prospects coming out of high school. Unfortunately for Mills, this was not a catalyst for a ton of playing time before being drafted to the NFL as he made just 11 career college starts. In those 11 starts, Mills threw the ball 438 times with 287 of them being completed, adding 18 touchdowns to 8 interceptions as well. Everything I have seen in my research of Mills is that he should have went back to school and he will need time to learn. Judging by his college production, I would have to agree. Mills is the typical old school pocket passer and has excellent arm strength to chuck the ball around the yard, but the lack of experience is a big concern. The path to playing time for Mills does seem to have some potential with Deshaun Watson still in a legal battle, making Tyrod Taylor the only player Mills may have to beat out for a starting job. He also has solid draft capital after being taken with the Texans first pick in the draft. If you’re able to get someone like Mills and he ends up starting you could probably net a first round pick for him from a contending team.
Jermar Jefferson (4 years / $889,581) – Running back, Detroit Lions
Jermar Jefferson was a very solid back for the Oregon State Beavers in college, especially during his freshman season where he had 239 carries for 1,380 yards and 12 touchdowns. In Jefferson’s career he totaled 514 carries for 2,923 yards and 27 touchdowns, with a shortened 2020 season. Jefferson is a big, hard to bring down old school back who has zero issues getting tough yards. The biggest concern for Jefferson heading into the NFL is the fact he does not offer much in terms of high end speed, or pass catching, though sometimes he seems to play faster than his times show. In Detroit, Jefferson has a decent shot at seeing the field with the Lions deciding not to bring back Adrian Peterson or Kerryon Johnson. The Lions did sign Jamaal Williams and still have D’Andre Swift on the roster, but I feel Jefferson can step into the Peterson role from last season with Detroit always seeming to take a running back by committee approach. Another negative for Jefferson is the lack of draft capital after going in the seventh round of the NFL draft.
Josh Palmer (4 years / $1,258,365) – Wide receiver, Los Angeles Chargers
Josh Palmer had one of my favorite landing spot/draft capital combos of the draft. The fact not many are talking about the kid, and he went in the third round of the NFL draft, while being tied to Justin Herbert for the foreseeable future is mind blowing. Palmer did not produce major numbers at Tennessee but has the size and profile to become what the Chargers had hoped Mike Williams would be. The biggest concern with Palmer is his college production, though he never exactly had a decent quarterback. Palmer only had 99 catches for 1,514 yards in 4 years at Tennessee which is worrisome. He will be given every chance to succeed in the NFL and has a decent path to playing time with only Mike Williams in his way. If Palmer happens to build a rapport early on with Herbert, he could be one of the bigger steals in rookie drafts. At worst, Palmer will be a hold until the Chargers finally move on from Williams.
Dez Fitzpatrick (4 years / $1,069,951) – Wide receiver, Tennessee Titans
Dez Fitzpatrick probably has the clearest path to playing time on this list in Tennessee. The Titans recently let Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis walk in free agency, which leaves only A.J. Brown as a proven pass catcher. Fitzpatrick was taken in the 4th round of the draft giving him decent draft capital on a team that is wide open at his position. Fitzpatrick is a big-bodied receiver and is good when it comes to contested catches. In his career at Louisville, Fitzpatrick had 154 catches for 2,589 yards at a whopping 16.8 yards per catch and added 21 touchdowns to boot. It will take him awhile to adjust fully to the NFL, but I think he will be able to get on the field early as a deep ball threat while he develops into a more experienced player. My favorite aspect of Fitzpatrick is his landing spot and the fact he only has to beat out someone like Josh Reynolds to see playing time. I would be willing to bet by draft time you may need to move into the late third round of your rookie draft if you want to guarantee he’s on your roster.
Javion Hawkins (3 years / $810,000) – Running back, Atlanta Falcons
After going undrafted and having zero draft capital Javion Hawkins couldn’t have landed in a better spot. The Falcons have been looking for a running back since Devonta Freeman fell off and seemingly are still looking. In 2020, Atlanta had the likes of Todd Gurley, Ito Smith, and Brian Hill getting the majority of the touches, all of whom are no longer with the organization. The Falcons depth chart after Mike Davis is wide open, and Mike Davis has been nothing but a journeyman his entire career. In college at Louisville, Hawkins posted impressive numbers with 399 carries for 2,355 yards and 16 touchdowns. Hawkins showed the ability to hit a homerun whenever he touches the ball, but also goes down on first contact quite often. The one thing I do not like about Hawkins is the fact he is an undersized back who has showed very little in the pass catching game. Time will tell what Hawkins could be but for now he’s well worth a dart throw after rookie drafts. Hawkins is also another player I could see trending up into the third round of rookie drafts.
Elijah Mitchell (4 years / $915,892) – Running back, San Francisco 49ers
The opposite of Dez Fitzpatrick, Elijah Mitchell may have the toughest path to playing time on this list, but the fact he went to the 49ers means he has a chance. The 49ers took Mitchell in the sixth round of the NFL draft after drafting Trey Sermon a few rounds earlier. Over the years we have seen numerous backs succeed under Kyle Shanahan and there is no reason to think Mitchell can’t be the next one. Mitchell was highly productive in college finishing with 527 carries, 3,267 yards, and 41 touchdowns, while also performing well in the passing game. While Mitchell isn’t the most talented back in this class, he is one of the most well rounded. The biggest concern for Mitchell is the massive amount of work he saw in his college career. In 2020, we saw Raheem Mostert, Jerick McKinnon, Jamycal Hasty, and Jeff Wilson all have productive games for the 49ers, leaving the possibility of Mitchell seeing the field in 2021 a real possibility. Is there anything that would be more Kyle Shanahan than Mitchell ending up the better pro talent over Trey Sermon?
Sage Surratt (3 years / $808,333) – Wide receiver, Detroit Lions
If you can’t tell yet I love targeting late round, big-bodied receivers. Sage Surrat sits at 6 feet 2 inches tall and weighs in at 209 pounds. Surrat opted out in 2020 due to Covid-19 but had a great 2019 season finishing with 66 catches, 1,001 yards, and 11 touchdowns. The biggest knock on Surratt heading into his career is his lack of explosiveness and ability to create separation, but he can counter that with great hands and contested catch ability. I know earlier I said Fitzpatrick had the best landing spot on the list, but Surratt is equally up there in terms of landing spot. If Surratt can beat out guys like Quintez Cephus, or Breshad Perriman he could see the field as early as Week 1, which is exactly why I will be rostering Surratt everywhere I can. Though I do like Surratt, I do not recommend trading into the third round of rookie drafts to get him.
Kenny Yeboah (3 years / $815,000) – Tight end, New York Jets
Kenny Yeboah ended up going undrafted in the 2021 NFL draft, but still stands to have a decent shot at making it in the pros. My favorite part about Yeboah (aside from his last name) is the fact he doesn’t have much in front of him on the roster to beat out. The Jets do have Chris Herndon there, but he has zero ties to the new coaching staff and could easily be moved or replaced. Yeboah isn’t the prototypical tight end who will stay in and block often but more along the lines of Noah Fant where he depends more on speed and athleticism to make plays. Yeboah can be moved around the field to create mismatches and should excel when matched up against smaller or slower linebackers. Yeboah’s college career started out at Temple before transferring to Ole Miss, totaling 74 catches, 1,062 yards and 12 touchdowns between the two schools. We all know tight ends take a while to develop and players like Yeboah make for a great stash at the bottom of your roster.
Conclusion
If you are like me and love to have plenty of late round lottery tickets to choose from then be sure to tune in next week when I breakdown my final 7 lottery tickets of the 2021 rookie drafts.
I want to take a second and remind everyone that we will have plenty of new users joining Dynasty Owner over the next few months and to try to help them out as much as possible with things. Dynasty Owner is a ton of fun but can be difficult to navigate at first for new users. If you happen to be a new user and are reading this, feel free to contact anyone on the Dynasty Owner team on Twitter and we will all, be glad to help. Let me know on Twitter if I just ruined any of your sleeper picks with this article. Until the next time good luck on your 2021 Chase for the Ring!