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Buffalo Bills
By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Today we are going to be continuing in the AFC East while we talk about the Buffalo Bills. The Bills were the most successful team in their division in 2020. Here is how the division played out…
| Record | Season Outcome | |
| Bills | 13-3 | Eliminated, AFC Championship |
| Dolphins | 10-6 | Eliminated, Regular Season |
| Patriots | 7-9 | Eliminated, Regular Season |
| Jets | 2-14 | Eliminated, Regular Season |
The Bills were far and away the best team in the division although the Dolphins had a chance to sneak into the playoffs in Week 17. Most of Buffalo’s success came through the air. They passed almost 62 percent of their plays which ranks 11th among all NFL teams in 2020. The biggest success in their passing game was the newfound connection between Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen. I’m not going to give the full stats for these two because Diggs is going to appear later on in one of my comparisons. I’m going to get through two comps today, but first we have one bit of news.
The News
Blake Bortles signed with the Green Bay Packers. It is a one year deal, and it looks to add a little insurance to the Aaron Rodgers situation.
Blind Comparisons
Like I mentioned in my previous article, I’m trying a new spin on the old way of presenting blind comparisons. In the past, I had given the readers two sets of stats and told them to choose which player they would prefer to own. At one point I wrote a couple of articles that based comparisons on over-owned or under-owned players. This month, I’m doing hybrid comparisons where I release a set of stats that pertains to one player and then release only the name of the second. This exercise will test your memory of how well certain “names” have played over the past few seasons as well as testing your memory of contract amounts. Here we go…
Comparison 1
The question is: Who would you rather own in Dynasty Owner?
Player A (Alpha):
23 years old
2020 stats
17.8 fantasy points/game (285.0 for 16 game season)
80 rec / 1,226 yards / 13 TDs (16 game season)
He missed 2 games in 2020
2021 projected stats
18.7 fantasy points/game (318.3 total)
87 rec / 1,353 yards / 16 TDs
Player B (Bravo):
Stefon Diggs
Wow, we’re starting off with a heavy hitter comparison. Immediately you try to remember how good of a season Diggs had (and it was a good one). Did he have a better 2020 than Alpha? The answer is…hell yes he did. In fact, Diggs ranked WR3 on the season in 2020. He finished behind only Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. “Very impressive” you say, “but how much better was Diggs compared to Alpha.” Well, we know that Diggs finished WR3 in 2020, and Alpha finished WR11. Here are both players’ 2020 season average next to each other.
| Player | Age | Points/Game | Rec | Yards | TDs |
| Alpha | 23 | 17.8 | 80 | 1,226 | 13 |
| S. Diggs | 27 | 20.7 | 127 | 1,535 | 8 |
(All stats are based on a full 16 game average)
It appears the difference between WR3 and WR11 is not negligible. In fact, (using their average) Diggs would have outscored Alpha by 46.6 total points in 2020. That’s essentially elite wide receiver production for two games. So, it sounds like your answer should emphatically be, “Diggs.” Diggs clearly seems to be the player that I would rather own. And I would agree with this statement, if not for one fact…
Diggs’ contract hit is $14,400,000 for the next three years while Alpha’s is $1,413,092 for two years. This dilemma is the heart of Dynasty Owner. This is what makes DO the greatest dynasty platform on earth. Now the decision to take Diggs is not so simple. This is what you have to decide…
Do I want 100 percent of Diggs’ production while paying close to 15 million dollars per year, or do I want roughly 80 percent of Diggs production with one tenth of the cap hit? The answer to that question lies with each and every individual Owner, but I would be taking the 90 percent discount in salary.
For what it’s worth, Alpha is A.J. Brown. Brown had a phenomenal 2020, and I’m projecting him to have an even better 2021. Brown will be ranked higher than Diggs when my initial rankings are released.
Comparison 2
Who would you rather own in Dynasty Owner?
Player C (Charlie):
Zack Moss
Player D (Delta):
23 years old
2020 stats
13.7 fantasy points/game (219.8 for 16 game season)
219 rush / 1,117 yards / 8 TDs (16 game season)
He missed 2 games in 2020
2021 projected stats
14.2 fantasy points/game (241.1 total)
192 rush / 938 yards / 16 TDs
I don’t think it’s any surprise that Zack Moss did not have a 2020 season as good as Delta. In fact, these two players 2020 numbers were not even close. That is somewhat to be expected though. The most touches Moss received in any game in his rookie season was 14. I expect a decent increase in usage for the upcoming season. So how do these players’ salaries compare?
Moss will make a little more than 1.15 million dollars for the next three years while Delta will make a little over 1.7 million dollars for one more year. How about the team dynamics?
We all know Moss’ setup. He will be competing for playing time with the more talented (my opinion) Devin Singletary and newly acquired Matt Breida. A silver lining for both of these fantasy players is the fact that Buffalo went the entire draft without adding a running back. Delta also has his fair share of backfield issues. It’s not that there is an issue with the backfield, but that it is also crowded. Without giving too much away, this backfield is probably more stacked than Buffalo’s in terms of physical bodies. It’s also worth noting that Delta’s team also didn’t draft a running back.
Time for the big reveal…
Delta is Ronald Jones. You may think that it’s a no brainer to draft Jones before Moss this season, and you may be right, but I would argue that it’s not that simple. While they are both the same age, Moss has three more years on his steal of a contract while Jones only has one. I would also argue that Moss has a better chance of becoming his team’s workhorse back before Jones. Regardless, this is how the 2020 season final breakdown works out…
| Player | Age | Points/Game | Rush | Yards | TDs | Salary |
| Z. Moss | 23 | 7.8 | 138 | 592 | 5 | $1,153,079 |
| R. Jones | 23 | 13.7 | 219 | 1,117 | 8 | $1,767,977 |
(All stats are based on a full 16 game average)
If the choice is mine, I’m taking Moss over Jones. It’s not an easy decision, and it is a close one, but I believe the three year contract for Moss will be more of a value over time than what Jones will receive on his next contract. What do you think?
As always, thank you for reading. Check out my video that pairs with this article. Take care and be safe.
TheJerk