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By Jay Pounds (@JayPoundsNFL)
I present you The Hateful Eight and a Half and if you are wondering why, it is called this, it’s because right now all the names you are about to hear are names you are probably tired of hearing and virtually hate hearing at this point in the off-season. As the so-called movie plays out, most characters are just fillers that give us something to talk about during the boring stretches and several won’t even make it to the end, just as we’ve seen happen on the big screen years ago. If you haven’t seen the movie don’t, I just explained it. What’s the half stand for you’re asking? Read the rest of the article to figure it out.
As teams continue with Organized Team Practice Activities (OTAs) we as owners continue to finalize our rosters before the start of the 2021 NFL season. The offseason has officially hit the dead zone which means owners should sift through the news they are hearing carefully. Rebuilding owners should always be looking for players that will offer some type of value in the future, whether that be this season or next. In a perfect world we would just roster every one of our favorite players but as we all have learned that’s just not possible with rosters only holding up to 30 players. The strategic approach I like to take is to always have a few players on my roster who are interchangeable, for instance I picked up Josh Palmer in one league but if he doesn’t look the part and someone else does, I will drop him in a heartbeat for said player. The main purpose for this isn’t going to be to fill your team with 30 studs, though that would be nice. The true purpose of this is so that you can move the players you feel won’t be long term assets or won’t be there when it’s time for your team to compete for a championship and turn them into draft picks that always hold solid value.
I know this player is highly redundant as well as an anomaly but look at how valuable James Robinson was in 2020. I’d be willing to bet around 75% of Robinson’s owners did not have him on their roster at this point in time last season. As I said Robinson happens to be an outlier with these types of players usually only turning into a bust, or a player of Russell Gage’s caliber in 2020 at best and even then, it usually takes some time. I know during this point in the offseason it seems everyone is high on everyone, but rebuilding owners need to be rostering some of the unknowns and turning them into value when they hit on these players, in order to speed up the rebuilding process. As seen in last week’s article where I broke down some of my own trades, I had Russell Gage on my roster and used him as a small part of a deal involving D.J. Moore and pick number 1.02 which I feel was great value for a player that’s guaranteed nothing moving forward. All the while Gage’s team continues to draft more pass catchers around him, including Kyle Pitts who went number 4 overall in the NFL draft. In general, most of these players will end up not being fantasy relevant, but some of them will come out of nowhere to have solid games like we saw from Travis Fulgham last season, which makes these situations even tougher to handle because you must strike when the iron is hot to get full value. If you look back at the run Fulgham had last season just imagine the difference in trade value if you traded him in Week 11 or 12 vs Weeks 4-8 when he was producing like a true alpha. I honestly feel in Week 6 last season owners would have given up a 2nd or 3rd round pick for Fulgham but anything after Week 10 or 11, he was basically untradeable. The NFL world is a very tricky place to navigate making it that much tougher on rebuilding owners, but no worries that’s what I’m here to help with!
In this week’s article we are going to be talking about some of the players I feel could net value for your roster in the future that are still widely available in the Free Agent Auction. The players we are going to be talking about today are owned in less than 60% of Dynasty Owner leagues and are all younger players with cheap salaries. If these players happened to be owned in your league, there are plenty more like them, just look for players who have a chance to see the field in the next year or two because of injuries, poor play, or players moving to a new team. You can also nab any of these players listed in a trade for a future 3rd round pick if you happen to fall in love with one of them who isn’t available in your league.
- Marquez Callaway – Wide Receiver, New Orleans Saints (2 years, $765,000), 53.33% Owned
Marquez Callaway is owned in just over half of Dynasty Owner leagues at 53.33%. I am not too sure why this is the case with the Saints Number 2 and 3 wide receiver spots absolutely wide open, but it needs to change. While Tre’Quan Smith is the likely favorite to play opposite of Michael Thomas, it’s nowhere near a given he has that role at the start of the season. Callaway had 21 catches for 213 yards playing in 11 games as a rookie and could be in line to see much more in 2021. The fact Callaway is playing for a great offensive coach in Sean Payton and will likely have former Number 1 overall pick Jameis Winston throwing him the ball makes him a no brainer to stash on the back end of rosters. In 2020, we saw Thomas miss time because of injuries and if that were to happen again in 2021 one of these Saints receivers are in line to become a massive value. The other thing I love about Callaway heading into 2021 is that the Saints did not draft a receiver until the 7th round, which tells me they believe in someone who is already on this roster.
- Tre’ McKitty – Tight End, Los Angeles Chargers (4 years, $1,196,462), 34.17% Owned
In any dynasty format, it’s smart to tie your pass catchers to great young quarterbacks and just because we include salaries here on Dynasty Owner doesn’t mean you shouldn’t follow suit. Outside of Keenan Allen, the Chargers really have no one that stands out as a pass catcher, unless you want to include a running back in Austin Eckler. The Chargers also only have Jared Cook in front of Tre McKitty giving him an excellent chance to see the field quickly in his rookie season. McKitty was a 3rd round pick for the Chargers who somewhat underwhelmed in college but a lot of that can be chalked up to bad QB play at FSU before he transferred to Georgia and COVID once he was playing for the Bulldogs. Overall, McKitty is an athletic tight end who is a much better receiver than blocker, which is what fantasy owners typically love. He will likely take a few years to develop as most at his position do but he is a high upside guy playing with Herbert and worth a stash.
- Jalen Darden – Wide Receiver, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4 years, $1,044,476), 50% Owned
Let’s play a guessing game. He is small in stature, he is a former quarterback, he played for a non-power 5 conference team, he transitioned to receiver, and he will be able to call Tom Brady a teammate. Remind you of anyone? No, I am not talking about the borderline Hall of Famer Julian Edelman, I am talking about Tampa Bay’s 4th round draft selection Jalen Darden. Darden is an extremely quick and shifty player; you know the type of guy Tom Brady loves. In the 2020 season at North Texas, Darden posted terrific numbers averaging 8.2 catches per game, 132.2 receiving yards per game, and finished 2nd in FBS with 19 touchdowns on the year. I do not expect Darden to be a major factor in 2021 but by the time 2022 has rolled around Darden will have shredded enough special teams units that the Bucs will start finding ways to get this kid the ball. I’m sure some will think that Tom Brady won’t be there forever, but I am here to politely tell you that you are wrong. Tom Brady will probably be winning Super Bowls for our grandkids’ children to watch. Tom Brady 43, Father Time 0!
- Caleb Huntley – Running Back, Atlanta Falcons (3 years, $808,333), 16.67% Owned
While everyone zeros in on Javian Hawkins and Mike Davis, there is a way owners can zig while everyone else zags by picking up Caleb Huntley. The Atlanta Falcons have the most wide open running back room in the NFL with only Mike Davis locked in for a workload. Huntley was hugely productive in college at Ball State finishing his career with 576 carries for 2,902 yards and 21 touchdowns, while missing big chunks of two seasons. Huntley did miss quite a bit of time his senior season because of injury and COVID and I believe that was a major factor in him going undrafted. While there are more intriguing options in the Atlanta backfield, Huntley is well worth a stash going into the year. As I mentioned earlier it’s extremely rare to see a James Robinson emerge from nowhere, but I believe Atlanta’s roster has the best chance of producing a player like that in 2021.
- Ian Book – Quarterback, New Orleans Saints (4 years, $1,038,396), 51.67% Owned
It is extremely rare that a late round quarterback does much in the NFL aside from being a quality backup, but if there is a coach in the league I trust to produce someone like this, it’s Sean Payton. Ian Book had a solid career at Notre Dame finishing with almost 9,000 yards for 72 touchdowns and 20 interceptions in basically three and a half seasons. Book was exceptional in 2019 with 3,034 passing yards, 34 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, while leading his team to the College Football Playoff. Book could also be used in a similar role to Taysom Hill as he has underrated mobility and athleticism. I don’t expect Book to have any type of value this season but if Winston or Hill were to leave New Orleans after 2021, Book’s stock will rise.
- Jarret Patterson – Running Back, Washington Football Team (3 years, $808,333), 57.5% Owned
Jarret Patterson is another solid choice of a running back to stash deep on your roster. Patterson was picked up as an undrafted free agent by the Washington Football Team. I love the landing spot here for Patterson with only Antonio Gibson locked in front of him going into 2021. Patterson was one of the most electric running backs in all of college football for Buffalo including the 8 touchdown gem he had this past season against Kent State. Eight touchdowns in one game, watch out Alvin Kamara owners. In Patterson’s college career he was the true definition of a workhorse running back with 636 carries, 3,884 yards and 52 touchdowns in just two and a half seasons of work. I can see Patterson having a Darren Sproles type role to start his career if he catches on in Washington.
- Tyron Johnson- Wide Receiver, Los Angeles Chargers (1 year, $695,000), 54.17% Owned
As shocked as I am about Marquez Callaway being rostered in under 60% of Dynasty Owner leagues, I am just as shocked about Tyron Johnson. Johnson is a young player who performed well in spurts last season and being tied to Justin Herbert never hurts a receiver’s value. If Mike Williams comes out and looks like the typical Mike Williams we have come to know, we could see a player like Tyron Johnson take a massive leap this season. The other huge factor I love about Johnson is the fact that both Williams and Keenan Allen have had trouble with injuries in the past which could allow Johnson to see the field even more. In just 12 games last season, Johnson had 20 catches for 398 yards and 3 touchdowns, all after being activated from the practice squad. Sometimes all a guy needs is a chance and Johnson will surely get his in 2021.
- Frank Darby – Wide Receiver, Atlanta Falcons (4 years, $921,125), 37.5% Owned
While I do love the prospect of a player like Russell Gage, it says something to me that the Falcons addressed the pass catching position more than once on Draft Day. The Falcons doing this can mean one of two things, either they like Gage and think he compliments Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts well, or they are looking for an upgrade so Gage can stay in more of the backup role that he’s seemed comfortable with over the last two seasons when Julio Jones, Hayden Hurst/Austin Hooper, and Calvin Ridley have been healthy. If the Falcons happen to not be sold on Gage, or an injury happens somewhere it could spell big things for a player like Frank Darby whom the Falcons took in the 6th round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Darby was limited to just two games in 2020 because of injury likely hurting his draft stock and was forced to play behind Brandon Aiyuk and N’Keal Harry the seasons before at Arizona State. In the two healthy seasons Darby played behind Aiyuk, and one behind Harry, he had a stat line of 52 catches, 1,037 yards, and 10 touchdowns, while showing he is a capable playmaker. If the Falcons come to find Darby has some untapped potential after playing behind two studs in college, he could be a huge value for any rebuilding roster. One quick note from this is that Herm Edwards can recruit the receiver position well!
- Tim Tebow – Tight End, Jacksonville Jaguars (1 year, $920,000), 22.5% Owned
Just kidding! Even if Tebow makes the Jaguars roster, he’s not worth wasting one of your roster spaces for, especially on a rebuilding roster. If Tebow does happen to make the roster I could see him used around the Red Zone here and there, but I don’t think he will ever truly be someone you can start on the Bench with confidence.
Conclusion
As you see I deviated from the typical top 10 that I normally do, and this was because I only want to give Dynasty Owners’ players I feel good about and not just a bunch of names who might have a shot. All of the guys listed above aside from Book and Darden have realistic chances of making an impact in Year One, or not making the team they are currently on. If you happen to find yourself in Week 5 and one of these players has played well the last few weeks, you’ll have to decide whether you’d like to try to hold him for the future or cash in and get some value before the likely probability of him flaming out happens.
Please feel free to let me know if I missed any of your favorite guys who are under 60% owned here on Dynasty Owner. As always don’t forget to check out Matt’s articles which release on Mondays and Steve’s articles which release on Wednesdays. That’s all for today folks good luck on your 2021 Chase for the Ring!