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Jaguars vs Bengals
By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Week 4 of Thursday Night Football has arrived. Like last week, this may not be the most anticipated matchup of the season. That’s okay though. My job is to get you excited for this game. We’ll get to it later, but I would be excited to watch several players in this game, especially if I happened to own any of them in Dynasty Owner. Tonight’s game sees the AFC North leading Cincinnati Bengals facing off against the winless Jacksonville Jaguars. For you sports betters out there, the Bengals are favored by 7.5 points and the over/under is 45.5. This means a very healthy implied point total of 26.5 points for the Bengals.
Value of the Game Recap
Last week, I declared my value of the game to be D.J. Moore. After getting close to hitting on my first two weeks, I finally got a correct pick. D.J. Moore was, in fact, the Week 3 Value of the Game. Here is how his terrific night broke down.
| Week 3 Actual Stats | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Rushing Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| D.J. Moore | 8 | 126 | -1 | 0 | 20.5 |
Compare this with the projection that I had for Moore, and you have a pretty accurate prediction.
| Week 3 Projections | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| D.J. Moore | 7 | 94 | 1 | 22.4 |
A stat line of 20.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (DOFP) combined with his ultra-cheap salary of $2,792,829 makes him the Week 3 Thursday Night Football Value of the Game.
***It’s also worth noting that Moore had zero receptions after eight minutes left in the third quarter.***
What To Watch For
Similar to Week 1 when I talked about the three wide receivers from the Buccaneers, I am most excited to watch how the wide receiving core’s pecking order works out for the Bengals. Obviously the injury to Tee Higgins throws a wrench in this three-headed monster, but the split between Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd will still be worth watching. Ja’Marr Chase has been sensational this season. He is WR11 with 220 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns in three games. That is good enough for 56.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. On the other hand, Tyler Boyd has only 34.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. What’s strange is that Boyd has three more receptions and three more targets than Chase. While I admit that I would rather own Chase over Boyd (especially in Dynasty Owner), the volume is there for Boyd. I will be interested to see if/when Boyd has any dominating games, while Chase plays more of the secondary role. Maybe that day is today?
Starters
All the players that I include in this list are players who I think should be started in most, if not all, Dynasty Owner leagues. They are:
Joe Mixon ($12,000,000)
James Robinson ($763,333)
Ja’Marr Chase ($7,547,410)
Marvin Jones ($6,250,000)
Bench Players
In Dynasty Owner, you are able to set a Bench roster. The players on your Bench add 25 percent of their overall total to your final point total at the end of the week. Therefore, it is important to not only consider your starting lineup very carefully, but also consider your Bench. These are the players that I would be comfortable placing on my Bench tonight.
Joe Burrow ($9,047,534)
Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372)
Tyler Boyd ($10,750,000)
Tee Higgins (OUT) ($2,171,696)
D.J. Chark ($1,111,807)
Laviska Shenault ($1,924,017)
***Ignore the Tee Higgins line. He has been declared out for this game, and he should be removed from all lineups.
Value of the Game
My Value of the Game pick for tonight is going to be James Robinson. Robinson is by far the cheapest player that I have in my Starters category for this game. Robinson is on a contract that is worth $763,333 per year. Robinson had a very disappointing first two weeks of the season. He had only 16.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in those two games total. What is encouraging is that his usage has increased significantly in each game this year. While it was clear that Urban Meyer may not have been sold on Robinson (as evidenced by the drafting of Travis Etienne), I believe he is starting to realize that James is the best running back option on the team.
The truth is that even with an average game, Robinson will still probably be the Value of the Game due to his amazingly cheap salary. Here is the stat line I have predicted for him tonight…
| Week 4 Projections | Rushing Attempts | Rushing Yards | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| James Robinson | 14 | 68 | 5 | 49 | 1 | 22.7 |
Thank you all, and I will see you next week. Take care and be safe.
TheJerk