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By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)
This week’s Thursday night game was decidedly less exciting than the past two weeks, but it did feature something that both of those games lacked. That’s right a rookie QB making his first NFL start. Washington Football Team QB Taylor Heinicke was making his first regular season start last week, but don’t forget that he started the Football Team’s playoff game against Tampa Bay last year. Last night, it was Davis Mills taking over for Tyrod Taylor as Houston’s QB and you have to think that with Deshaun Watson’s “issues” and desire to never play for the Texans again that we might have seen the change to a new QB of the future for Houston.
The same thing is possible for the Chicago Bears with Justin Fields starting at QB this Sunday in place of an injured Andy Dalton. Sure, Bears’ Head Coach Matt Nagy said that Dalton is the starter once he’s healthy, but Anthony Lynn said the same thing last year when Justin Herbert took over at QB for the Chargers in place of an injured Tyrod Taylor. Lynn said this after Justin Herbert’s first NFL start back in Week 2 of the 2020 season, “…the veteran quarterback right now gives us the best chance to win.” He also said “If Tyrod Taylor is 100%, then he is our quarterback”. In case you forgot, Taylor never played another snap for the Chargers and signed with the Texans in the off-season. Don’t be surprised if the same thing happens with Dalton and the Bears. If I was a Bears fan, I’d be praying for the same thing that happened with Herbert to happen again with Fields.
There’s also a potential changing of the guard in Dynasty Owner. Into the Top 25 in the Chase for the Ring in 2021 are newcomers like Crow Valley Corvids (currently in 1st place), The Road Warriors (2nd place), Foxborokid (6th place) and many others. Out are Barbee Kilgore (1st place in 2020), Quaranteed for Greatness (2nd place in 2020), The Human Fund (5th place in 2020) and most of the other teams who finished last season in the Top 25 of the Chase for the Ring.
The good news for those teams from 2020 who aren’t on the Chase leaderboard is that they still have a dozen Dynasty Owner regular season games plus the playoffs to right the ship, win their League and maybe find their way back. We’ll highlight a game in our Match-up of the Week between one of the new teams trying to take over the Chase standings and a member of the old guard who wants to hold on to their spot.
Thanks for reading my weekly preview article. Every week of the 14-game Dynasty Owner regular season and three game playoffs, I’ll present a player at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) who you should have as a Starter in your Dynasty Owner lineup. After that, I’ll name one player per position who should be on your Bench or Practice Squad. These won’t be the obvious choices for Starters either. No recommendations to go ahead and start Patrick Mahomes, Derrick Henry, Davante Adams and Travis Kelce. I also won’t have “sleepers” like Matthew Stafford. He is the QB11 right now in Dynasty Owner. He should be a Starter and is definitely not a “sleeper”. Highly drafted players who may have had a bad first two weeks, such as Josh Allen or Antonio Gibson, won’t be mentioned either. Nope, I’m going to recommend you Start players who were drafted to be on your Bench or Practice Squad. For the Bench recommendations, I’ll suggest players drafted to be Starters or who have had a great first two weeks and their current ranking says they should be in your Starting lineup, but who shouldn’t be in there this week based on matchups, past performance against a team or something else.
Finally, I will look at one Dynasty Owner game, our Match-up of the Week. Again, this week’s matchup was mentioned in the chat during the Wednesday afternoon live Dynasty Owner podcast with me and Tim Peffer. If you didn’t see the Wednesday live podcast, or Tim and Seth live on Thursday, you can check both of those videos out on the Dynasty Owner YouTube anytime.
All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.
For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner rostered percentage statistics were current as of the morning of September 24th.
These Guys Should be Starters This Week
As always, let’s take a quick look at how my recommendations from the previous week fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok). I predicted good performances worthy of being in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup for these four guys in Week 2, so let’s see how they did.
QB: Ben Roethlisberger – 16.7 (Bad recommendation)
RB: James Conner – 2.6 (Bad recommendation)
WR: Jarvis Landry – 1.9 (Bad recommendation)
TE: Jared Cook – 5.8 (Bad recommendation)
That didn’t go slow well, did it? Out of the four recommendations, all were Bad with only QB Ben Roethlisberger having double-digit points and even being close to a decent option for your Bench. He was QB23 in Dynasty Owner for Week 2 and finished with fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points than a couple of QBs who got injured (Tyrod Taylor and Carson Wentz). The rest didn’t do much either, but Jarvis Landry had potential before he sprained his MCL early in the Browns’ game. It’s the changing of the week now to Week 3. The only way that I can go is up with these recommendations:
Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN): As the QB26 right now in Dynasty Owner and the 20th QB off the board on average in Dynasty Owner start-up drafts (ADP 119.4), Ryan Tannehill definitely qualifies as someone who should probably be on your Bench this week. He’s not a “sleeper” like some people are calling Matthew Stafford. Tannehill’s history against Indianapolis (average of 18.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in three starts as Titans QB) doesn’t scream “Start me” either. However, I have to think better games are coming for Tannehill and the Titans passing offense. So far in 2021, Indianapolis has allowed the top two opposition WRs to score a combined 90.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in just two games. Admittedly, those were great WR pairs (Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf for Seattle; Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp for the Rams), but you know what Tannehill has as well. A pair of great WRs in A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. In total, the Indianapolis defense has allowed opposition QBs to throw 24 completions for 407 yards and 5 TDs to their WRs. If you take half of those stats for Tannehill and round down, it’s 203 passing yards and 2 passing TDs (22.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). That’s a good start towards a Top 12 QB performance, so put Tannehill in your Starting lineup.
James White (RB – NE): Technically, James White shouldn’t be eligible, but unless you have James White on your roster, you probably aren’t aware that he’s the RB15 in Dynasty Owner after the first two weeks of the 2021 NFL season. He leads the Patriots in receptions (12) and receiving yards (94) as well. Rookie QBs need reliable players to throw short passes to and if you look up reliable in the dictionary, you’ll see James White’s picture. Not sure if they still have dictionaries anymore, but look around and maybe you’ll find one in the library. White doesn’t run the ball much as he only has nine carries for 32 yards, but since Dynasty Owner is full PPR (one point per reception), it’s fine since White gets the vast majority of his fantasy points in the receiving game (80% in 2020 and 83% in 2019). He averaged 13.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in 2019 with the G.O.A.T. Tom Brady under center for New England. We’re pretending the 2020 season with Cam Newton didn’t happen. Mac Jones isn’t Brady, but he’s been fine and the best of the rookie QBs so far. That’s because of his reliance on White. An average week for White would be six receptions for 47 yards, which is 10.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. I think he’ll do better than that and be worthy of inclusion in your Starting lineup.
Hunter Renfrow (WR – LV): After the first two weeks of the season, Renfrow is the leading WR for Las Vegas with 11 receptions and ranked second in receiving yards behind Henry Ruggs with 127. He’s also chipped in 36 punt return yards, good for 0.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He also led the Raiders WRs in receptions last year with 56 for 656 receiving yards and two receiving TDs to finish as the WR57 in Dynasty Owner. That’s pretty solid production for only $708,987 in salary and about $100,000 less than a 2021 undrafted rookie free agent. That’s Bench WR production, but with fellow Raiders WR Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards likely to be defended by the Dolphins top CBs Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, I believe that Raiders QB Derek Carr will continue to target Renfrow when Darren Waller isn’t open, as he has already done 16 times this season. Derek Carr has attempted 93 passes against only 46 rushing attempts, probably because Raiders RBs are averaging only 2.4 yards per carry (36 carries for 86 yards). Renfrow is still waiting to score his first TD in Las Vegas, and this could be the week, so get him in your Starting lineup.
Austin Hooper (TE – CLE): Hooper is arguably the top available Cleveland pass catcher this week. Odell Beckham Jr. is expected to play, but how much is an open question because he hasn’t played in a NFL game since last October. As a result, I wouldn’t rely on OBJ. Because of Hooper’s $10.5 million salary and the fact that he finished 2020 as the TE21 in Dynasty Owner, he is only rostered in 37.9% of Dynasty Owner leagues. While the Bears are in the bottom third in terms of fantasy points allowed to TEs, it’s because Bengals QB Joe Burrow only targeted TE C.J. Uzomah twice in last week’s game against them. Back in Week 1, the Bears defense gave up 11.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (5 receptions for 68 yards) to Rams TE Tyler Higbee which put Higbee in the Top 10 TEs after the first game. Finally, Jarvis Landry missed the Browns’ Week 16 game last year and guess who was the Browns’ leading receiver in that game? It was Hooper who was targeted a whopping 15 times and scored 14.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (7 receptions for 71 yards). If you happen to be one of those Dynasty Owners with Hooper on your roster, get him in your Starting lineup.
These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week
Now it’s the time to look at how my Bench recommendations from Week 2 worked out (Good, Bad or Just Ok). In Week 1, I was a perfect 4 for 4 with all Good Bench recommendations. Did I do it again in Week 2?
QB: Jameis Winston – 7.4 (Good recommendation)
RB: Josh Jacobs – DNP (N/A recommendation)
WR: Corey Davis – 2.8 (Good recommendation)
TE: Kyle Pitts – 12.3 (Bad recommendation)
I feel like the villains in Scooby Doo saying, “if it wasn’t for that meddling Kyle Pitts” Here’s a great YouTube video if you’re not familiar with what I just wrote. Without the Pitts recommendation which was Bad because he had 12.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and finished among the top 10 TEs for the week, I’d still have a perfect Bench recommendation record. Guess I should have gone with Tyler Higbee (1.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) or George Kittle (4.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) instead. The Jameis Winston and Corey Davis Bench recommendations were both stellar as neither one did much in Week 2 after huge performances in Week 1. At the time of publication last week, Josh Jacobs hadn’t been ruled out for the week, so that pick doesn’t count.
Let’s see if I can keep up the good week with these four recommended Bench players for Week 3.
Tom Brady (QB – TB): With a near perfect Bench recommendation record on the line, picking the G.O.A.T. is likely not the smartest move, but I’m making it anyways. The basis is basically that the Buccaneers are playing against the Rams this week and the Rams have a really good defense. The Rams held Brady to only 16.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (216 passing yards, 2 passing TDs, 2 INTs) in Week 11 of last year. That was his third worst performance of the 2020 season behind 1.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 9 against New Orleans and 10.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 2 against Carolina. Even the G.O.A.T. has a bad game every once in a while. I know the G.O.A.T. is likely super focused on the Rams, you can’t tell me that he isn’t thinking just a little bit about the Buccaneers’ Week 4 matchup against the New England Patriots. The news stories with comments from his trainer and Dad have already started and I think the G.O.A.T. might overlook the Rams and need to be on your Dynasty Owner Bench.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO): The Saints play New England this week and Bill Belichick loves to take away the best offensive player on the opposition team. That’s clearly Alvin Kamara for the Saints, so guess who the Patriots defense is going to focus on? The Patriots defense has allowed only two TDs so far this season (1 rushing, 1 passing) and neither were scored by a RB. Kamara does a lot of his damage receiving out of the backfield and in the first two games of the season, New England has allowed all RBs to catch only 9 passes for 80 receiving yards. They definitely weren’t focused on stopping Myles Gaskin (12.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) who finished as a low end RB2 in Week 1 or the Jets trio of RBs (a combined 18.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). The Saints offense had a terrible game last week with only 128 yards of total offense and Kamara only scored 7.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (5 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 25 receiving yards). The Patriots likely won’t keep Kamara from catching the ball at all, but they can limit his touches and possibly keep him under 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, which would put him RB30 territory and worth a spot on the Bench.
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS): Opposition starting WRs are averaging only 10.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game against the Buffalo Bills defense. Those WRs aren’t slouches either as it includes the Steelers trio of Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster and the Dolphins pair of Jaylen Waddle and Davante Parker. Johnson, Claypool and Smith-Schuster were all top 24 WRs in 2020 and Parker was the WR40. Waddle is a rookie, but was the #6 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft. If the Bills were able to hold down multiple WRs from those two teams, how is Terry McLaurin going to do as really the only WR worth guarding on the Washington Football Team? McLaurin has more receptions and receiving yards (15 receptions for 169 yards) than all of the other Washington WRs combined this season (14 receptions for 103 yards). The Steelers and Dolphins targeted their WR a combined 52 times in the first two games with just 31 receptions and 255 receiving yards to show for it. That’s the fifth most targets and fifth fewest amount of receiving yards. Not a great combination for McLaurin, so put him on your Dynasty Owner Bench and find a better option at WR.
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL): Andrews hasn’t been very good this year so far. He has only produced 15.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to rank as the TE16 after two games. Six other Ravens players have scored more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than Andrews so far this season. The appealing thing about Andrews has always been his low salary ($863,290) and the fact that he scores a lot of TDs (10 in 2019 and 7 in 2020). So far, zero TDs through two games this season and his salary goes up to $14 million a year in 2022. However, his salary doesn’t matter in terms of whether or not to start him this week against the Detroit Lions. What matters more is that the Ravens have run the ball 75 times in two games for 440 yards (5.9 yards per carry), while the Lions have allowed an average of 113.5 rushing yards per game. The Ravens will likely try to run as much as they can, limiting the number of targets and TD opportunities that Andrews can expect to get again this week. Even though he’s the TE16 right now, he was drafted to be a Starter (ADP 52.7) and most Dynasty Owners will want to have him in their Starting lineup this week. Hopefully you have someone else you can plug in as your Starting TE and leave Andrews on the Bench.
Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week – The Road Warriors vs. Dynasty Trade School (Mad Minshew)
It’s time for the third Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week of the 2021 season. The first two match-ups have been really good and the third one looks to be right in line as well. Our Week 1 game came down to Monday Night Football with Dan’s Dynasty taking down the 2020 Chase for the Ring Championship team Barbee Kilgore by 2.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Week 2 also came down to Monday night and saw Scubon1c Plagu3 outlast SKOL Vikings by just 2.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
The predictions are showing that the Week 3 Match-up between The Road Warriors and Dynasty Trade School (Mad Minshew) in League #27449 should be almost as close. The Road Warriors are in second place right now in the 2021 Chase for the Ring, while the Dynasty Owner running the Dynasty Trade School (Mad Minshew) team knows how to get to the top of the Chase standings as he finished in third place last year with another team (Mad Minshew’s Moustache in League #27458). Both teams are 2-0 in League play and the top spot in League #27449 is on the line.
The Road Warriors are favored to win by a high-scoring game befitting these two top teams by a score of 174.3 to 171.2. Unless one of them makes a lineup change, this Match-up will be over on Sunday night as neither team has any Cowboys or Eagles players in their Starting lineup or on the Bench right now. Everyone can look on Monday to see what happened if one of them is still on the Chase leaderboard or just wait for the Tuesday recap article to see who won and went to 3-0 on the season.
Conclusion
Please read my weekly preview article each and every week to see who should be in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup and who should be on your Bench. If you have one of the players mentioned, hopefully it will assist you with your lineup decisions. While some Dynasty Owners may heed my advice, others might disagree, or not have a better option for their Starting lineup and choose to ignore a Bench recommendation. Other Dynasty Owners may not need Starting lineup help as they have a stud player at a position who isn’t moving to the Bench unless he’s injured or on bye. Hopefully, the choices for your Starting lineup and Bench are solid, your team wins its game, and you stay in contention for the playoffs and the Chase for the Ring.
In addition to this weekly preview article, Dynasty Owner has plenty of other great content to help you win your League Championship and maybe the Chase for the Ring. Our in-season publication schedule is as follows. On Monday, Jay Pounds will preview the Monday Night Football matchup from the Dynasty Owner perspective. Tuesday has a double shot of Dynasty Owner content with my Week 3 recap article and Jay’s Free Agent Auction targets article and video. Wednesdays is when Matt Morrison – The Jerk will dive into a topic of his choosing with an article and a video, while the next day, he’ll have an article previewing the Thursday Night Football game to start Week 4. Don’t forget about the Dynasty Owner livestream on Wednesday with myself, Jay Pounds and Tim Peffer as well as the free flowing fun that is Seth and Tim chatting together live on Thursdays at 1 PM. Set those timers so you don’t miss either one of those broadcasts.
Please read all of our articles, watch our videos on YouTube or listen to them wherever you get your podcasts. Don’t forget follow all three of the Dynasty Owner team of writers plus Dynasty Owner on Twitter as well. Thanks, and have a great day!
Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner
Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner