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Buccaneers vs Eagles
By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
I wish I could say that tonight’s game should be competitive, but the reality is that it may not be. In Week 6 of Thursday Night Football, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will play the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles come into the game with a 2-3 record and are third in the NFC East. The Eagles have been mostly uncompetitive in their losses this season. They lost by 12 to the Chiefs, and by 20 to the Cowboys. The visiting team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are currently 4-1 and lead the NFC South. Tampa Bay’s lone loss came to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3. Expect an offensive outburst by the Bucs tonight as they are averaging 33.4 points per game.
At the time of this writing, the betting line is TB -7, and the over/under is 52.5 points. There are only three games with a higher over/under for Week 6, and none of the teams in those games are playing a defense as bad as the Eagles. With an implied point total of almost 30 points for the Bucs, I expect plenty of fantasy production to go around.
Value of the Game Recap
Last week, I predicted that DK Metcalf would be the Value of the Game. This was a pretty easy decision for me to arrive at. Not only did Metcalf have one of the two ultra-cheap salaries in that game, but he had also shown success against the Rams in their previous matchup in the 2020 playoffs. In fact, here is what I wrote last week about Metcalf…
“I have a few options to choose from for my Value of the Game, but in the end I’m going to pick DK Metcalf. I also considered Darrell Henderson (and I think he’ll have a fine game), but I think tonight is going to be a Metcalf game. Historically, Metcalf has not played very well against the Rams in the regular season. He had 8 receptions for 87 yards and zero TDs last year against the Rams, but that was combined in both regular season games. However, it may be forgotten that when the Rams and Seahawks met in the Wild Card Round of the 2020 playoffs, Metcalf went for 5 receptions, 96 receiving yards and 2 TDs. I predict a game line closer to the playoff game tonight than the two regular season meetings.”
While I didn’t settle on that exact line for my prediction, it was what I based most of my projection on. Here was my projected game stats compared to his actual output:
| Week 5 Projections | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 76 | 1 | 19.6 |
| Week 5 Actual | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 98 | 2 | 26.8 |
It appears that I should have put my money where my mouth was and just predicted a carbon copy of Metcalf’s 2020 Wild Card game. Regardless, as far as value goes, Metcalf was the victor in Week 5. I’ll look to take a three week winning streak into Week 6.
What To Watch For
Oddly enough, the biggest thing I’m looking for in this game will not be on the Tampa Bay side at all. What I want to see is Zach Ertz. I know, I know. This may not be the most interesting story line of the game, but let me explain…
By now you have probably heard the news that Dallas Goedert is most likely going to miss Week 6 with a positive COVID test. This means that for the first time this season, Ertz will be the primary/sole tight end receiving option for the Eagles. I predict at least four receptions and at least 50 receiving yards for Ertz in this game. That combined with an above average chance for a touchdown, makes him a very interesting tight end play this week. The $8,500,000 salary is not great, but if you are one of the 63.9 percent of Dynasty Owners who roster Ertz, then this is a prime position to start him.
Starters
Every player on this list should be started in nearly every Dynasty Owner league. At a minimum, you should have a tough decision as to whether you’re going to start them or put them in your Bench slot.
Tom Brady ($25,000,000)
Jalen Hurts ($1,506,292)
Leonard Fournette ($3,250,000)
Mike Evans ($16,500,000)
Chris Godwin ($15,983,000)
Antonio Brown ($3,075,000)
Zach Ertz ($8,500,000)
Bench Players
Giovani Bernard ($1,212,500)
Miles Sanders ($1,337,544)
Kenneth Gainwell ($953,882)
DeVonta Smith ($5,035,348)
Value of the Game
In an attempt to continue my three week winning streak, I am once again going to go with the safest pick I can think of. The player is Jalen Hurts. Hurts is the safest pick for the Value of the Week competition because he has the lowest salary of anyone in my “Starters” list, and he is a quarterback. On average, quarterbacks receive more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than running backs or wide receivers. Hurts is currently the QB8 on the season, and an average day for him (29 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) should easily wrap up the Value of the Game. Here is my prediction for Hurts tonight…
| Week 6 Projections | Attempts | Completions | Passing Yards | Rushing Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| Jalen Hurts | 45 | 30 | 301 | 57 | 2 | 32.8 |
A stat line like this combined with Hurts amazingly affordable salary of just over $1.5 million makes him my Week 6 Thursday Night Football Value of the Game.
Thank you all, and I will see you next week. Take care and be safe.
TheJerk