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By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)
The Amnesty Provision is a unique feature on Dynasty Owner and is something that NFL teams don’t have available to them. They probably wish they did as it gives Dynasty Owners the ability to drop a player free of charge from their roster and avoid paying the 25% drop fee of that player’s remaining contract. Imagine what new General Managers taking over rosters assembled by their predecessor would do with an Amnesty Provision.
New Dynasty Owners get one Amnesty Provision when they pay their $39 entry fee for their first season. Additional Amnesty Provisions can be purchased for $5 million Dynasty Dollars. Dynasty Owners cannot purchase additional Amnesty Provisions in their first year and can only buy one per season. Extra Amnesty Provisions can be won as a prize, gifted by Dynasty Owner or obtained by trading with another member in your league. The final two teams in the Loser’s bracket tournament each win an Amnesty Provision. Dynasty Owners can trade Amnesty Provisions for draft picks, players or Dynasty Dollars.
Since they generally cost Dynasty Dollars to acquire, an Amnesty Provision must be used wisely. Because they cost $5 million Dynasty Dollars, using an Amnesty Provision on a player with less than $20 million left on his contract is not advisable as it is cheaper to just pay the 25% drop fee. It’s not required to use an Amnesty Provision in the year it was acquired, but if you have a high-salary player who’s not worth his contract, it is a valid option to use before the 2022 Dynasty Owner league year starts on March 18th. Obviously, Dynasty Owners should try to trade a player first and see what they can get in return. If no one wants to trade, it might be better to use an Amnesty Provision than keep a high salary player who is hogging up valuable salary cap space.
Here are some players who Dynasty Owners should consider using an Amnesty Provision on before the start of the 2022 Dynasty Owner league year. We have three categories of players: widely-owned (rostered in 80% or more of Dynasty Owner leagues), marginally-owned (rostered in over 30%, but less than 80% of Dynasty Owner leagues), and lesser-owned (rostered in less than 30% of Dynasty Owner leagues).
All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.
For the purposes of this article, all statistics, ADP and Dynasty Owner rostered percentage statistics were current as of the afternoon of January 18th.
Widely-Owned Players
Russell Wilson (QB – SEA) – 3 years/$35 million – 83.4% Roster Percentage
Formerly the high-paid player in the NFL before extensions were signed by Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson is now sadly overpriced for his current level of production. Wilson missed the first three games of his career in 2021 and also averaged fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game than in any prior Dynasty Owner season (22.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). He finished as the QB15 for the season, but obviously that ranking is skewed by missing three games. However, Wilson would have been the QB12 if he played in 16 games (357.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) and QB10 if he played in all 17 games (379.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points).
Getting rid of Wilson could seem harsh as he is just one year removed from being the QB5 in Dynasty Owner (2020) and two years since being the QB3 (2019). His poor play in 2021 could be attributed to the finger injury that he suffered in Week 5, or something else with the Seattle offense. After all, he did finish the second half of 2020 with much poorer stats (20.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game) than the first half (38.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game).
If he stays in Seattle, it could be more of the same thing in 2022. If he gets moved to another team, there’s the possibility that he is revitalized like Matthew Stafford was this year. It’s also possible that he struggles with a new team, similar to how Cam Newton did. Sorry, but if you’re spending $35 million of your Dynasty Owner salary cap for the next two seasons on a QB, that QB has to start every week and perform better than Wilson did in 2021.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL) – 6 years/$15 million – 100% Roster Percentage
Based on his 100% roster percentage, Dynasty Owners with Elliott who want to rid themselves of his salary can probably find a trade partner. However, if the trade market is dry and your team needs salary cap room to re-sign players who have already gotten new contracts that will take effect in 2022, or are free agents and likely to sign a new deal, then using that Amnesty Provision on Elliott is a way to do it. Elliott was the RB7 on the 2021 season with over 1,000 yards rushing and a dozen TDs. Why would anyone get rid of him? Several reasons:
This is not to say that Elliott is terrible as a football player or even in a non-Dynasty Owner fantasy league, however he appears to need high volume and TDs to maintain his standing over the next couple of years and justify his $15 million per year contract. His contract runs until he’s 31 years old and there’s very little chance that he will be getting that level of volume as a 31-year old RB. Even the news following the Cowboys playoff loss that he was playing in 2021 through a knee injury (partially torn PCL) doesn’t change this opinion.
Michael Thomas (WR – NO) – 4 years/$19.25 million – 79.9% Roster Percentage
His roster percentage rounds up to 80% so he is listed here. It is shocking to me that there is a Dynasty Owner in four out of every five leagues with Thomas still on their roster. Back in early November when he announced that he was going to be out for the year, I advocated using an Amnesty provision on Thomas and there was even a contest to guess what percentage of Dynasty Owners would take that option. I was completely wrong with my prediction as few Dynasty Owners utilized their Amnesty Provision at that time and only a small percentage did so in the past few months as well. His roster percentage at the time of the announcement was 89.35% and dropped to only 81.1% by the following week. It has fallen only slightly more in the past two months.
Even though few Dynasty Owners have done it, the case for using an Amnesty Provision on Thomas remains strong. If he suits up in Week 1 of the 2022 season in early September, it will be his first game in almost twenty months (January 17, 2021). He’s coming off ankle surgery in June that put him on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list for the first six weeks of the 2021 season. He suffered a new and different injury to the same ankle that was announced in November and kept him out for the entire 2021 season. His QB is likely to be either Taysom Hill, or someone else not named Drew Brees who is the only QB he caught passes from for most of his NFL career. That’s worth a flyer in a redraft or regular dynasty league, but not $19.25 million per season in Dynasty Owner.
Marginally-Owned Players
Here are five players, all WRs and TEs, on a lower percentage of Dynasty Owner rosters (between 30% and 80%) who Dynasty Owners should use their Amnesty Provision on this off-season.
Kenny Golladay (WR – NYG) – 4 years/$18 million – 53.85% Roster Percentage
This was a bad contract the moment it was signed and Dynasty Owners who had Golladay should have dropped him for free last March after it was signed. If you didn’t and picked him up or drafted him in 2021 then it’s time to cut ties. While firing coach Joe Judge and possibly replacing Daniel Jones at QB is a good start towards helping Golladay, it’s probably not enough to make him worth $18 million per season. Even when he and Jones were working well together at the beginning of the year, Golladay only had 45.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the first four games (11.3 points per game). That may be the high point in his Giants career, then he’s really not worth his salary.
Julio Jones (WR – TEN) – 3 years/$22 million – 49.1% Roster Percentage
Julio Jones is currently the second highest paid non-QB in Dynasty Owner and not worth it at all. At his price ($22 million per year), his production needs to be a lot better than just the 80.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points he scored in 2021. He was injured for a little under half of the season, but still played in 10 games, so his per game average was just over 8.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. He only had two games with more than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, only one 100 receiving yard game and a single receiving TD for the 2021 season. Jones also only played in nine games in the 2020 season and will be 33 years old at the start of the 2022 season. While NFL WRs can still be productive at that age, getting $22 million worth of production out of Jones seems unlikely next year and in 2023 as well.
Jonnu Smith (TE – NE) – 4 years/$12.5 million – 40.8% Roster Percentage
Smith was one of the highest profile NFL free agents last season and expected to combine with fellow TE Hunter Henry to offer New England a solid 1-2 punch at the TE position. Henry also received a $12.5 million salary, but for one fewer year, and proved his worth by finishing as the TE9 with 164.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. On the other hand, Smith finished as the TE35 with 66.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 16 games played (4.15 points per game). He ended up with only one Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) on the season, but had seven games with less than 3.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and only one game with more than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He finished sixth on the Patriots in targets, receptions and receiving yards, but was not targeted in the Patriots’ playoff loss. It’s possible that he comes back strong in 2022 with QB Mac Jones at the helm, but $12.5 million is a lot to pay for a potentially unproductive TE.
Austin Hooper (TE – CLE) – 3 years/$10.5 million – 31.4% Roster Percentage
Hooper is currently the fifth highest paid TE in Dynasty Owner, although that will change in 2022. Regardless of his salary ranking, he hasn’t been worth $10.5 million as a member of the Browns. He did have a couple of useful weeks with favorable match-ups and injuries to the other members of the Browns’ receiving corps, but not enough to make him worth his salary. Hooper finished the 2021 season as TE24 and was TE21 in 2020. That’s more than enough of a sample size to declare him worthy of using an Amnesty Provision on. Even waiting until the next league year won’t matter as his deal will still have $21 million left on it and he’ll cost $5.25 million to drop.
Sterling Shepard (WR – NYG) – 3 years/$10.25 million – 42.6% Roster Percentage
Similar to Kenny Golladay, but Shepard also brings along a torn Achilles that forced him on Injured Reserve, will cost him the entire off-season, and possibly impact his availability for the start of the 2022 season. He has been fairly productive when available, but has only played in 29 out of the 49 regular season games for the Giants over the past three seasons. He did have two tremendous games at the end of the 2020 season and two good ones to start the 2021 season – each game with more than 17.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. However, that’s probably not enough to overcome the potential lack of availability and question marks surrounding the Giants coaching and QB situation.
Lesser-Owned Players
Here are five players, four QBs along with one RB, who are on less than 30% of Dynasty Owner rosters, but should be removed from those rosters using an Amnesty Provision.
Deshaun Watson (QB – HOU) – 5 years/$39 million – 28.4% Roster Percentage
The fact that he didn’t play at all in 2021 and still has all of the same legal problems as he did at the start of the season aren’t good signs about his potential for playing in 2022 or beyond. If you kept him on your Dynasty Owner roster for the entire 2021 season though, you might be in it for the long haul and reject the idea of getting rid of him.
Jared Goff (QB – DET) – 4 years/$33.5 million – 1.2% Roster Percentage
There aren’t too many Dynasty Owners with Goff on their roster, but for those few and proud, it’s time to move on. He was QB20 in 2020 with the Rams and QB23 this past season with Detroit. That’s what he is and it’s not worth $33.5 million per year to keep him on your Dynasty Owner roster.
Carson Wentz (QB – IND) – 4 years/$32 million – 11.8% Roster Percentage
It’s never a good sign for your long-term prospects if the team that traded a first round pick to acquire you isn’t ready to commit to you as their starting QB. That’s the situation facing Carson Wentz in Indianapolis. If the Frank Reich and the Colts are shopping around for cheaper, better options, then Dynasty Owners should take a cue and do the same thing. Sure, Wentz was the QB12 in Dynasty Owner in 2021, but does he project more as a Top 10 QB in 2022, or someone who drops out of the Top 20?
Matt Ryan (QB – ATL) – 3 years/$30 million – 10.1% Roster Percentage
Ryan is looking like he’s at the end of his career at 36 years of age. He finished as QB19, but was only 0.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points ahead of Ben Roethlisberger for that spot. Roethlisberger was seen as a shell of his former self this season and took a pay cut to $14 million for his final season, which is probably a more realistic salary figure for Ryan at this point. Ryan costs more than twice that amount now and for the 2023 season as well and has gone from QB9 in 2019 to QB12 in 2020 to QB19 in 2021. The Falcons might hold on for one more season, but Dynasty Owners shouldn’t.
Kyle Juszczyk (RB – SF) – 5 years/$5.4 million – 10.1% Roster Percentage
His roster percentage is a lot higher than I would have guessed with his contract. He is durable and has played all 33 games over the past two seasons, but only averaged 4.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in that time. That average is not surprising when you see that he only got 38 touches in 2021 and 36 touches in 2020. Juszczyk is a perfect player for a NFL team, but not a Dynasty Owner team.
Conclusion
There are quite a few players who Dynasty Owners can use an Amnesty Provision on. The decision to use it shouldn’t be taken lightly as there are limits on them and they do cost $5 million Dynasty Dollars. However, if you have one, the time might be right to use it before the 2022 Dynasty Owner league year kicks in.
The weekly Dynasty Owner livestream will return this Wednesday at 4 PM (Eastern) with myself and Tim Peffer. Not sure about this week, but we should have plenty of guests over the course of the off-season. Set the timer on YouTube so you don’t miss it live, or make sure to watch it afterwards. Either way, don’t forget to smash the Like button. You can also listen wherever you get your podcasts.
Please read all of the off-season articles and videos from our Dynasty Owner team as well. On Tuesdays, I’ll talk about players, salaries and contracts to help new and returning Dynasty Owners navigate how to play our unique game. Jay Pounds will talk about rebuilding your Dynasty Owner roster on Wednesday. Nate Christian is back for 2022 and will do prospect previews every Thursday. Finally, Friday is Free Agent Friday as Matt Morrison – The Jerk breaks down the free agents on every NFL team by division.
Thanks for reading and have a great day!
Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner
Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner