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By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)
Now that the Super Bowl is over, Dynasty Owners can turn their total focus to the Dynasty Owner off-season and upcoming free agency period. We’ll give the Rams’ fans an extra day or two to celebrate and Bengals’ fans the same time period to get over what happened, but they don’t want to wait too long to start thinking about the off-season as things will start moving soon.
NFL free agents can re-sign with their current team, or wait until March 16th and sign with a new one. Those new contracts, as well as the contract extensions signed during the 2021 season, will take effect for Dynasty Owners on March 18th. We don’t have a finalized 2022 salary cap yet since the NFL hasn’t finalized theirs, but it’s anticipated to be $145.74 million (70% of the expected $208.2 million NFL salary cap).
In other dynasty leagues, you may start thinking about rookies and which ones you want on your team, but Dynasty Owner is different because rookies are harder to evaluate because you have to take their contract into effect. That’s why NFL free agency is more important in Dynasty Owner than a regular dynasty league. Players changing teams might impact how much you value a certain player on your regular dynasty league team, but you’re unlikely to drop a player solely based on the fact that he switched teams. However, in Dynasty Owner, a new team means a new contract and that new contract might make a player too expensive to take up a roster spot on your Dynasty Owner team that has to stay under the salary cap.
The contract increases (and in some rare cases, contract decreases) will impact the Dynasty Owner’s decision on whether to keep that player and his new contract on their team. If they don’t want the player and his new contract, they can trade the player or drop them for free during the contract change window (currently seven days, but possibly going up). There are a lot of free agents out there who will be getting new contracts and Dynasty Owners can start planning for their contracts using the anticipated free agent market values from Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/).
After discussing mostly RBs for the past two weeks, it’s time to turn our focus to the WRs for a pair of articles. Since not everyone has the time to go check out the market value for all of the impending free agents or even just the 19 WRs with a Spotrac market value, I’ll look for you. This article will give their Market Value estimates, compare it to the player’s 2021 Dynasty Owner salary and make a recommendation for what to do with the player at that new salary. Since there are 19 free agent WRs to go over, the high salary WRs ($10 million or more average annual salaries) will go first, followed by the lower salary WRs. The high salary RBs had market values of over $5 million and none were in the $10 million or more range. In contrast, for WRs, we have nine who are expected to command annual salaries of $10 million or more.
Before we get to the part about how players score Dynasty Owner fantasy points, let me brag a bit about my Super Bowl prediction. Last week, I predicted a Rams victory by a score of 23-19, which was only one point off of the exact final score of 23-20. Check out last week’s article if you don’t believe it. I thought there would be a bit more offense by the Bengals being stuffed in the red zone leading to more field goals for them than happened, which is why the Bengals’ score ended up being off by a point. Enough about that, let’s congratulate Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and the rest of the Los Angeles Rams for winning the Super Bowl!
All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.
For the purposes of this article, all statistics, Average Draft Positions (ADPs), and 2021 position ranks were current as of the morning of February 14th. Spotrac has market values available for select players at https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/.
WRs Who Are Going to Get Paid Over $20 Million Per Year
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR2 | 29 | $14,500,000 | $25,867,703 | + $11,367,703 |
Adams’ market value is projected at 5 years and $129,338,515, or $25,867,703 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Adams on their roster currently should expect to have to find an extra $11.37 million to keep him on their team. That’s a significant portion of the expected $17.99 million increase in the Dynasty Owner salary cap. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Trade him
This is a tough decision. On one hand, you have the WR2 for the 2021 season, the WR1 in 2020 even though he missed two games and the WR23 in 2019 when he missed four games. He has over 1,000 yards in three of the past four seasons and only missed by three yards in 2019 in 12 games played. He has scored 10 or more TDs in five of the past six seasons. Obviously, he is a major talent who won’t turn 30 until near the end of next season. In a regular dynasty league, I’m not sure that you even entertain a trade for Adams.
On the other hand, it’s not a regular dynasty league, it’s Dynasty Owner and salaries matter. Adams is estimated to make nearly $26 million next year as well as the following four seasons. In 2022, he will be the second highest non-QB salary behind $27.25 million for Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins. His anticipated salary increase of $11.37 million is over three-fifths (63%) of the expected increase in the Dynasty Owner salary cap of $17.99 million. To keep Adams, your Dynasty Owner team is likely going to have to drop or trade other players and find more bargain salaries to make it work.
The fact that Adams may be playing without Aaron Rodgers for the first time in his career hasn’t even been mentioned yet. It’s an important consideration. Is Adams going to continue get over 10 targets per game as he’s averaged the past four seasons with Rodgers in Green Bay? Maybe next year, but what about 2027 when he’s pushing 35 years old? Those are things that you need to consider in Dynasty Owner that you might not think about in a regular dynasty league. Of course, he and Rodgers could continue to team up in Green Bay, or somewhere else, for another year (or more) and continue their high level of performance.
Dynasty Owners with Adams should trade him as soon as they can. His value is high, the possibility of playing with Rodgers and staying in Green Bay is still there. Another Dynasty Owner in your league is going to want Adams and will give you something of value in return for him. It may even turn into a bidding war for his services, which will drive up the price.
WRs Who Are Going to Get Between $15 and $20 Million per Year
The range of $15 million to $20 million is pretty wide as in terms of market values, the highest projected contract is $18.1 million per season and the lowest is $16.3 million, but we’ll stick with that range. These three WRs will join two who signed contract extensions with an annual salary in this range during the 2021 season. Tyler Lockett signed a 4-year, $69 million extension ($17.25 million per year) with the Seattle Seahawks and Courtland Sutton signed a 4-year, $60.8 million extension ($15.2 million per year) with the Denver Broncos. Both of those contracts will kick in on March 18th for Dynasty Owners. The other three have market values on Spotrac in this range with Chris Godwin having the highest.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR16 | 25 | $15,983,000 | $18,195,988 | + $2,212,988 |
Godwin’s market value is projected at 5 years and $90,979,940, or $18,195,988 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Godwin on their roster currently should expect to have to find only an extra $2.2 million to keep him on their team. He was on a one-year, transition tag deal last season to try and win another Super Bowl ring with the G.O.A.T.. What should his Dynasty Owners do?
Current Recommendation: Keep him, unless you get a great trade offer
If he leaves Tampa, the team that signs Godwin will likely make him their WR1 receiver and a focal point of their passing offense. He should have every chance to succeed and be worth that contract. If he stays in Tampa, he will still be playing with Mike Evans and under Bruce Arians. In three years with Arians as his coach, Godwin has been the WR16 last season while playing in only 14 games, the WR30 in 2020 in just 12 games and the WR2 in 2019 in 14 games with Jameis Winston at QB.
On the negative side, he is coming off surgery for a torn ACL. Some may argue that he benefitted from Evans’ presence and might not be a WR1 on his own. If he stays with Tampa Bay, it will be without Brady. Finally, five years is a long time and maybe he won’t be worth the money at the end of the deal. None of these concerns are strong enough to trade him unless the offer is great and difficult to pass up.
The other two WRs in this salary range are Mike Williams and Allen Robinson. Both have very similar market values with Williams’ being slightly higher, so we’ll talk about him first.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR12 | 27 | $15,680,000 | $16,739,980 | + $1,059,980 |
Williams’ market value is projected at 4 years and $66,959,920, or $16,739,980 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. That’s just $1.06 million more in salary that Dynasty Owners with Williams on their roster currently should have to find to keep him on their team. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period and if you can’t get a deal, then drop him for free
His WR12 finish in 2021 was easily his best fantasy season in his five year NFL career. However, it was built off of a great stretch of four games in the first five weeks in which he had a total of 117.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (29.25 per game). In the other 12 games he played in, he had 132.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (11.05 per game). He had nine double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy point games in 2021, but in only two of those games did he fail to score a TD. In contrast, his teammate Keenan Allen was the WR11 and had 15 double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy point games and only scored six TDs. For a contract that would make put him in the top 10-12 WRs in annual salary, I need those Dynasty Owner fantasy points on a weekly basis. Williams isn’t a guy who’s going to do that for your Dynasty Owner team.
Allen Robinson is the final WR in this salary range.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR90 | 28 | $17,880,000 | $16,376,209 | – $1,503,791 |
Robinson’s market value is projected at 4 years and $65,504,836, or $16,376,209 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners who held on to Robinson during his terrible 2021 season (still rostered in 87.0% of Dynasty Owner leagues) will get a salary savings of $1.5 million if they keep him on their team. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period and if you can’t get a deal, then drop him for free
This is my assessment and what I would do if I had Robinson on any of my Dynasty Owner teams. I don’t have him and think that Dynasty Owners who stuck with Robinson throughout the 2021 season as he plummeted down to WR90 from WR9 in 2020 and WR8 in 2019 are more likely to hang on to him. They likely want to see if he turns it around. If the Dynasty Owner in your league drafted Robinson last year, or picked him up in a trade during the season, they might be more willing to part with Robinson than someone who had him in 2020. I’ll assume many Dynasty Owners will hold on to Robinson at this slightly lower salary, so if you want him on your Dynasty Owner team, you will have to pay more than you will now.
This assessment holds pretty much regardless of his landing spot as the Bears no longer have Matt Nagy as coach, but still have a QB of the future in Justin Fields. Robinson was a Top 10 QB in Dynasty Owner with Chase Daniel, Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky at QB. That says he’s not dependent on having a great QB throwing him the ball to provide great production.
WRs Who Are Going to Get Between $10 and $15 Million per Year
The range of $10 million to $15 million is also wide as all three WRs with those market values in that range are really in between $13.2 million and $11.9 million. These three WRs will join two who signed contract extensions with an annual salary in this range during the 2021 season. Robby Anderson is at the high end as he already signed a 2-year, $29.5 million extension ($14.75 million per year) with the Carolina Panthers and Tim Patrick is at the lower end with his 3-year, $34 million extension ($11.33 million per year) with the Denver Broncos. Both of those contracts kick in on March 18th for Dynasty Owners.
Out of the four free agent WRs who have market values in this range, the largest average annual salary amount is projected to be earned by Odell Beckham Jr. (OBJ).
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR60 | 29 | $1,250,000 | $13,179,995 | + $11,929,995 |
OBJ’s market value is projected at 2 years and $26,359,990, or $13,179,995 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners who held on to him throughout the 2021 season were originally paying him $18 million, then saw his salary drop down to $1.25 million when he was released by Cleveland and picked up by the Rams for an in-season savings of $16.75 million. His salary increase is projected at $11.93 million for Dynasty Owners who want to keep him on their team. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period and if you can’t get a deal, then drop him for free
My feelings on OBJ have been the same for a while. He wasn’t worth $18 million, and I suggested using an Amnesty Provision on him way back in March of 2020. He was the first player on my January 2021 list of Players to Avoid Drafting in 2021. Finally, my article titled “How to Rid Your Roster of an Unwanted Player” advocated getting rid of him when he was released by Cleveland before the Rams picked him up for just $1.25 million back in early November
After playing well for the Rams in eight games with 87.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (10.9 per game), he stepped it up in the NFL playoffs and will likely parlay that into a new high-salary contract. His trade value will be higher now than later as the glow of his playoff performance fades during the NFL off-season.
That last paragraph was obviously written before the Super Bowl. The best time to trade OBJ would have been after his first quarter TD as he injured his knee in the second quarter and didn’t return to play. This injury may change his market value, but regardless he is a NFL free agent, one NFL team will sign him, and Dynasty Owners will have to figure out what to do at that point.
Jamison Crowder has the next highest WR market value.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR68 | 28 | $9,500,000 | $12,345,747 | + $2,845,747 |
Crowder’s market value is projected at 4 years and $49,382,988, or $12,345,747 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Crowder on their roster currently should expect to have to find $2.846 million more in salary cap to keep him on their team. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Drop him for free after trying to trade him, but not having any success
At his current $9.5 million salary, Crowder is only rostered in 32.5% of Dynasty Owner leagues. Adding nearly $3 million on top of that for four years so the contract extends until Crowder will be 33 years of age won’t help that roster percentage or in finding a trade partner. At the height of his career, Crowder was the W27 in 2019 with 197.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 16 games played (12.35 points per game). His average Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game was higher in 2020 at 15.05 per game, but he only played 12 games and finished as the WR35. Poor QB play hasn’t helped Crowder during his time in New York, but he was the Jets’ top receiver both of those years and that’s certainly not happening anywhere else in the NFL. Shop him around, but trade offers will be minimal or non-existent, so you’ll likely just have to drop him.
The final three WRs have market values of just under $12 million per year. Since all of them are finishing up their rookie contracts, each will be making at least $10 million more next year. Despite playing only four games in 2021, D.J. Chark has the highest market value.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR150 | 25 | $1,111,807 | $11,906,373 | + $10,794,566 |
Chark’s market value is projected at 4 years and $47,625,492, or $11,906,373 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Chark on their roster only got four games of service from him in 2021 and should expect to have to find nearly $10.8 million more in salary cap to keep him on their team in 2022. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Hold him
Chark was a productive WR for the Jaguars in both 2019 and 2020 and started off the 2021 season with two good games before fracturing his ankle in Week 4 and missing the rest of the season. If you drafted Chark, you likely spent a pretty early draft pick to get him (ADP 80.5 in 2021 and 85.8 in 2020), so the talent was supposed to be there at a low salary of $1,111,807. The talent is still there, and he should be in a much better situation than Jacksonville. The main stumbling block is the extra salary. Yes, $11.9 million is a nice salary, but it won’t even put him in the top 25 in WR salary. There are better values out there, but unlike RBs, there’s no reason to automatically trade away a young WR who is getting his second contract. Holding Chark to see how he fares in his first year at his new salary is reasonable. He can always be traded away for something if he doesn’t play well or even dropped with an Amnesty Provision since his contract will have nearly $36 million left on it.
Next on the just under $12 million per year salary list is Christian Kirk.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR27 | 25 | $1,473,717 | $11,893,133 | + $10,419,416 |
Kirk’s market value is projected at 4 years and $47,572,532, or $11,893,133 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. This is only $13,240 less per year than Chark, so don’t be surprised if they sign identical deals. His salary increase is projected at $10.42 million for Dynasty Owners who want to keep him on their team. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Hold him
The same recommendation as Chark, but if you have both of them on your Dynasty Owner team and can only hold on to one of them, I’d choose Kirk. Kirk has performed well every season and averaged over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in all four seasons from 2018 to 2021. In 44 games over the past three seasons, he only scored 14 TDs, but had 26 games with 10.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
Kirk was a great value on his rookie contract and can still help your Dynasty Owner team win, it’s just that he’s going to cost more in salary now. Fortunately, the increase in the salary cap gives you the space to keep a couple of players who will earn a salary increase. He’s unlikely to singlehandedly win your team a League Championship, but he can be an important piece in the FLEX position or as a bye week and injury replacement in the Starting lineup, so holding on to him is advised.
Finally, our list of $10 million or more per year free agent WRs ends with Michael Gallup.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR84 | 25 | $880,995 | $11,870,671 | + $10,989,676 |
Gallup’s market value is projected at 4 years and $47,482,684, or $11,870,671 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. This is only $22,462 less per year than Kirk and $35,702 less per year than Chark. All three of them might sign identical deals. His salary increase is projected at $10.99 million for Dynasty Owners who want to keep Gallup on their team. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Hold him
The same recommendation as Chark and Kirk. Gallup played in only 9 games in 2021 after playing in 46 out of 48 games in his first three seasons. His WR ranking has slipped from WR22 in 2019 to WR38 in 2020 to WR84 in 2021. He dropped from averaging 15.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in 2019 to 10.8 per game in 2020 and 10.2 in 2021 due to the presence of CeeDee Lamb in the Cowboys lineup. Being able to average double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points on a team with Lamb, Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott along with the emergence of Dalton Schultz is a good sign that Gallup can be productive if he remains in Dallas or moves elsewhere in free agency. Staying in Dallas would reduce his value, but it would make the possibility of him turning into a bust at his new salary a lot less likely. A new home could unlock his full potential and make him a bargain. That alone is a good reason to hold on to Gallup.
Conclusion
We have nine free agent WRs who are expected to sign contracts of more than $10 million per season in free agency. However, the gap in total contract amount is wide as it ranges from as much as $129.34 million (Davante Adams) to as little as $26.36 million (Odell Beckham Jr.). Out of the nine WRs mentioned, eight of them are expected to retain a high roster percentage in Dynasty Owner and have at least some value.
As mentioned at the beginning of this article, there are a total of 19 WRs with Spotrac market values. The final ten will be highlighted next week as they all have market values of less than $10 million per year. The players on the high salary WR list were pretty much as anticipated, while there are some surprising WRs who don’t have a market value as well as vice versa. Read next week’s article to find out who made the list and who didn’t.
The weekly Dynasty Owner livestream with myself and Tim Peffer is back at its regular day and time – Wednesday at 4 PM (Eastern). Set the timer on YouTube so you don’t miss it live, or make sure to watch it afterwards. Either way, don’t forget to smash the Like button. You can also listen to it afterwards wherever you get your podcasts.
Please read all of the off-season articles from our Dynasty Owner team as well. On Mondays, I write about players, salaries and contracts to help new and returning Dynasty Owners navigate how to play our unique game. Jay Pounds is writing about everything on rebuilding your Dynasty Owner roster on Tuesday. Nate Christian is back for 2022 and will do prospect previews every Thursday. Finally, Friday is Free Agent Friday right now as Matt Morrison – The Jerk breaks down the free agents on every NFL team by division.
Thanks for reading and have a great day!
Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner
By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)
Now that the Super Bowl is over, Dynasty Owners can turn their total focus to the Dynasty Owner off-season and upcoming free agency period. We’ll give the Rams’ fans an extra day or two to celebrate and Bengals’ fans the same time period to get over what happened, but they don’t want to wait too long to start thinking about the off-season as things will start moving soon.
NFL free agents can re-sign with their current team, or wait until March 16th and sign with a new one. Those new contracts, as well as the contract extensions signed during the 2021 season, will take effect for Dynasty Owners on March 18th. We don’t have a finalized 2022 salary cap yet since the NFL hasn’t finalized theirs, but it’s anticipated to be $145.74 million (70% of the expected $208.2 million NFL salary cap).
In other dynasty leagues, you may start thinking about rookies and which ones you want on your team, but Dynasty Owner is different because rookies are harder to evaluate because you have to take their contract into effect. That’s why NFL free agency is more important in Dynasty Owner than a regular dynasty league. Players changing teams might impact how much you value a certain player on your regular dynasty league team, but you’re unlikely to drop a player solely based on the fact that he switched teams. However, in Dynasty Owner, a new team means a new contract and that new contract might make a player too expensive to take up a roster spot on your Dynasty Owner team that has to stay under the salary cap.
The contract increases (and in some rare cases, contract decreases) will impact the Dynasty Owner’s decision on whether to keep that player and his new contract on their team. If they don’t want the player and his new contract, they can trade the player or drop them for free during the contract change window (currently seven days, but possibly going up). There are a lot of free agents out there who will be getting new contracts and Dynasty Owners can start planning for their contracts using the anticipated free agent market values from Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/).
After discussing mostly RBs for the past two weeks, it’s time to turn our focus to the WRs for a pair of articles. Since not everyone has the time to go check out the market value for all of the impending free agents or even just the 19 WRs with a Spotrac market value, I’ll look for you. This article will give their Market Value estimates, compare it to the player’s 2021 Dynasty Owner salary and make a recommendation for what to do with the player at that new salary. Since there are 19 free agent WRs to go over, the high salary WRs ($10 million or more average annual salaries) will go first, followed by the lower salary WRs. The high salary RBs had market values of over $5 million and none were in the $10 million or more range. In contrast, for WRs, we have nine who are expected to command annual salaries of $10 million or more.
Before we get to the part about how players score Dynasty Owner fantasy points, let me brag a bit about my Super Bowl prediction. Last week, I predicted a Rams victory by a score of 23-19, which was only one point off of the exact final score of 23-20. Check out last week’s article if you don’t believe it. I thought there would be a bit more offense by the Bengals being stuffed in the red zone leading to more field goals for them than happened, which is why the Bengals’ score ended up being off by a point. Enough about that, let’s congratulate Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and the rest of the Los Angeles Rams for winning the Super Bowl!
All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.
For the purposes of this article, all statistics, Average Draft Positions (ADPs), and 2021 position ranks were current as of the morning of February 14th. Spotrac has market values available for select players at https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/.
WRs Who Are Going to Get Paid Over $20 Million Per Year
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR2 | 29 | $14,500,000 | $25,867,703 | + $11,367,703 |
Adams’ market value is projected at 5 years and $129,338,515, or $25,867,703 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Adams on their roster currently should expect to have to find an extra $11.37 million to keep him on their team. That’s a significant portion of the expected $17.99 million increase in the Dynasty Owner salary cap. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Trade him
This is a tough decision. On one hand, you have the WR2 for the 2021 season, the WR1 in 2020 even though he missed two games and the WR23 in 2019 when he missed four games. He has over 1,000 yards in three of the past four seasons and only missed by three yards in 2019 in 12 games played. He has scored 10 or more TDs in five of the past six seasons. Obviously, he is a major talent who won’t turn 30 until near the end of next season. In a regular dynasty league, I’m not sure that you even entertain a trade for Adams.
On the other hand, it’s not a regular dynasty league, it’s Dynasty Owner and salaries matter. Adams is estimated to make nearly $26 million next year as well as the following four seasons. In 2022, he will be the second highest non-QB salary behind $27.25 million for Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins. His anticipated salary increase of $11.37 million is over three-fifths (63%) of the expected increase in the Dynasty Owner salary cap of $17.99 million. To keep Adams, your Dynasty Owner team is likely going to have to drop or trade other players and find more bargain salaries to make it work.
The fact that Adams may be playing without Aaron Rodgers for the first time in his career hasn’t even been mentioned yet. It’s an important consideration. Is Adams going to continue get over 10 targets per game as he’s averaged the past four seasons with Rodgers in Green Bay? Maybe next year, but what about 2027 when he’s pushing 35 years old? Those are things that you need to consider in Dynasty Owner that you might not think about in a regular dynasty league. Of course, he and Rodgers could continue to team up in Green Bay, or somewhere else, for another year (or more) and continue their high level of performance.
Dynasty Owners with Adams should trade him as soon as they can. His value is high, the possibility of playing with Rodgers and staying in Green Bay is still there. Another Dynasty Owner in your league is going to want Adams and will give you something of value in return for him. It may even turn into a bidding war for his services, which will drive up the price.
WRs Who Are Going to Get Between $15 and $20 Million per Year
The range of $15 million to $20 million is pretty wide as in terms of market values, the highest projected contract is $18.1 million per season and the lowest is $16.3 million, but we’ll stick with that range. These three WRs will join two who signed contract extensions with an annual salary in this range during the 2021 season. Tyler Lockett signed a 4-year, $69 million extension ($17.25 million per year) with the Seattle Seahawks and Courtland Sutton signed a 4-year, $60.8 million extension ($15.2 million per year) with the Denver Broncos. Both of those contracts will kick in on March 18th for Dynasty Owners. The other three have market values on Spotrac in this range with Chris Godwin having the highest.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR16 | 25 | $15,983,000 | $18,195,988 | + $2,212,988 |
Godwin’s market value is projected at 5 years and $90,979,940, or $18,195,988 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Godwin on their roster currently should expect to have to find only an extra $2.2 million to keep him on their team. He was on a one-year, transition tag deal last season to try and win another Super Bowl ring with the G.O.A.T.. What should his Dynasty Owners do?
Current Recommendation: Keep him, unless you get a great trade offer
If he leaves Tampa, the team that signs Godwin will likely make him their WR1 receiver and a focal point of their passing offense. He should have every chance to succeed and be worth that contract. If he stays in Tampa, he will still be playing with Mike Evans and under Bruce Arians. In three years with Arians as his coach, Godwin has been the WR16 last season while playing in only 14 games, the WR30 in 2020 in just 12 games and the WR2 in 2019 in 14 games with Jameis Winston at QB.
On the negative side, he is coming off surgery for a torn ACL. Some may argue that he benefitted from Evans’ presence and might not be a WR1 on his own. If he stays with Tampa Bay, it will be without Brady. Finally, five years is a long time and maybe he won’t be worth the money at the end of the deal. None of these concerns are strong enough to trade him unless the offer is great and difficult to pass up.
The other two WRs in this salary range are Mike Williams and Allen Robinson. Both have very similar market values with Williams’ being slightly higher, so we’ll talk about him first.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR12 | 27 | $15,680,000 | $16,739,980 | + $1,059,980 |
Williams’ market value is projected at 4 years and $66,959,920, or $16,739,980 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. That’s just $1.06 million more in salary that Dynasty Owners with Williams on their roster currently should have to find to keep him on their team. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period and if you can’t get a deal, then drop him for free
His WR12 finish in 2021 was easily his best fantasy season in his five year NFL career. However, it was built off of a great stretch of four games in the first five weeks in which he had a total of 117.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (29.25 per game). In the other 12 games he played in, he had 132.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (11.05 per game). He had nine double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy point games in 2021, but in only two of those games did he fail to score a TD. In contrast, his teammate Keenan Allen was the WR11 and had 15 double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy point games and only scored six TDs. For a contract that would make put him in the top 10-12 WRs in annual salary, I need those Dynasty Owner fantasy points on a weekly basis. Williams isn’t a guy who’s going to do that for your Dynasty Owner team.
Allen Robinson is the final WR in this salary range.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR90 | 28 | $17,880,000 | $16,376,209 | – $1,503,791 |
Robinson’s market value is projected at 4 years and $65,504,836, or $16,376,209 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners who held on to Robinson during his terrible 2021 season (still rostered in 87.0% of Dynasty Owner leagues) will get a salary savings of $1.5 million if they keep him on their team. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period and if you can’t get a deal, then drop him for free
This is my assessment and what I would do if I had Robinson on any of my Dynasty Owner teams. I don’t have him and think that Dynasty Owners who stuck with Robinson throughout the 2021 season as he plummeted down to WR90 from WR9 in 2020 and WR8 in 2019 are more likely to hang on to him. They likely want to see if he turns it around. If the Dynasty Owner in your league drafted Robinson last year, or picked him up in a trade during the season, they might be more willing to part with Robinson than someone who had him in 2020. I’ll assume many Dynasty Owners will hold on to Robinson at this slightly lower salary, so if you want him on your Dynasty Owner team, you will have to pay more than you will now.
This assessment holds pretty much regardless of his landing spot as the Bears no longer have Matt Nagy as coach, but still have a QB of the future in Justin Fields. Robinson was a Top 10 QB in Dynasty Owner with Chase Daniel, Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky at QB. That says he’s not dependent on having a great QB throwing him the ball to provide great production.
WRs Who Are Going to Get Between $10 and $15 Million per Year
The range of $10 million to $15 million is also wide as all three WRs with those market values in that range are really in between $13.2 million and $11.9 million. These three WRs will join two who signed contract extensions with an annual salary in this range during the 2021 season. Robby Anderson is at the high end as he already signed a 2-year, $29.5 million extension ($14.75 million per year) with the Carolina Panthers and Tim Patrick is at the lower end with his 3-year, $34 million extension ($11.33 million per year) with the Denver Broncos. Both of those contracts kick in on March 18th for Dynasty Owners.
Out of the four free agent WRs who have market values in this range, the largest average annual salary amount is projected to be earned by Odell Beckham Jr. (OBJ).
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR60 | 29 | $1,250,000 | $13,179,995 | + $11,929,995 |
OBJ’s market value is projected at 2 years and $26,359,990, or $13,179,995 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners who held on to him throughout the 2021 season were originally paying him $18 million, then saw his salary drop down to $1.25 million when he was released by Cleveland and picked up by the Rams for an in-season savings of $16.75 million. His salary increase is projected at $11.93 million for Dynasty Owners who want to keep him on their team. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period and if you can’t get a deal, then drop him for free
My feelings on OBJ have been the same for a while. He wasn’t worth $18 million, and I suggested using an Amnesty Provision on him way back in March of 2020. He was the first player on my January 2021 list of Players to Avoid Drafting in 2021. Finally, my article titled “How to Rid Your Roster of an Unwanted Player” advocated getting rid of him when he was released by Cleveland before the Rams picked him up for just $1.25 million back in early November
After playing well for the Rams in eight games with 87.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (10.9 per game), he stepped it up in the NFL playoffs and will likely parlay that into a new high-salary contract. His trade value will be higher now than later as the glow of his playoff performance fades during the NFL off-season.
That last paragraph was obviously written before the Super Bowl. The best time to trade OBJ would have been after his first quarter TD as he injured his knee in the second quarter and didn’t return to play. This injury may change his market value, but regardless he is a NFL free agent, one NFL team will sign him, and Dynasty Owners will have to figure out what to do at that point.
Jamison Crowder has the next highest WR market value.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR68 | 28 | $9,500,000 | $12,345,747 | + $2,845,747 |
Crowder’s market value is projected at 4 years and $49,382,988, or $12,345,747 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Crowder on their roster currently should expect to have to find $2.846 million more in salary cap to keep him on their team. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Drop him for free after trying to trade him, but not having any success
At his current $9.5 million salary, Crowder is only rostered in 32.5% of Dynasty Owner leagues. Adding nearly $3 million on top of that for four years so the contract extends until Crowder will be 33 years of age won’t help that roster percentage or in finding a trade partner. At the height of his career, Crowder was the W27 in 2019 with 197.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 16 games played (12.35 points per game). His average Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game was higher in 2020 at 15.05 per game, but he only played 12 games and finished as the WR35. Poor QB play hasn’t helped Crowder during his time in New York, but he was the Jets’ top receiver both of those years and that’s certainly not happening anywhere else in the NFL. Shop him around, but trade offers will be minimal or non-existent, so you’ll likely just have to drop him.
The final three WRs have market values of just under $12 million per year. Since all of them are finishing up their rookie contracts, each will be making at least $10 million more next year. Despite playing only four games in 2021, D.J. Chark has the highest market value.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR150 | 25 | $1,111,807 | $11,906,373 | + $10,794,566 |
Chark’s market value is projected at 4 years and $47,625,492, or $11,906,373 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Chark on their roster only got four games of service from him in 2021 and should expect to have to find nearly $10.8 million more in salary cap to keep him on their team in 2022. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Hold him
Chark was a productive WR for the Jaguars in both 2019 and 2020 and started off the 2021 season with two good games before fracturing his ankle in Week 4 and missing the rest of the season. If you drafted Chark, you likely spent a pretty early draft pick to get him (ADP 80.5 in 2021 and 85.8 in 2020), so the talent was supposed to be there at a low salary of $1,111,807. The talent is still there, and he should be in a much better situation than Jacksonville. The main stumbling block is the extra salary. Yes, $11.9 million is a nice salary, but it won’t even put him in the top 25 in WR salary. There are better values out there, but unlike RBs, there’s no reason to automatically trade away a young WR who is getting his second contract. Holding Chark to see how he fares in his first year at his new salary is reasonable. He can always be traded away for something if he doesn’t play well or even dropped with an Amnesty Provision since his contract will have nearly $36 million left on it.
Next on the just under $12 million per year salary list is Christian Kirk.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR27 | 25 | $1,473,717 | $11,893,133 | + $10,419,416 |
Kirk’s market value is projected at 4 years and $47,572,532, or $11,893,133 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. This is only $13,240 less per year than Chark, so don’t be surprised if they sign identical deals. His salary increase is projected at $10.42 million for Dynasty Owners who want to keep him on their team. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Hold him
The same recommendation as Chark, but if you have both of them on your Dynasty Owner team and can only hold on to one of them, I’d choose Kirk. Kirk has performed well every season and averaged over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in all four seasons from 2018 to 2021. In 44 games over the past three seasons, he only scored 14 TDs, but had 26 games with 10.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
Kirk was a great value on his rookie contract and can still help your Dynasty Owner team win, it’s just that he’s going to cost more in salary now. Fortunately, the increase in the salary cap gives you the space to keep a couple of players who will earn a salary increase. He’s unlikely to singlehandedly win your team a League Championship, but he can be an important piece in the FLEX position or as a bye week and injury replacement in the Starting lineup, so holding on to him is advised.
Finally, our list of $10 million or more per year free agent WRs ends with Michael Gallup.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR84 | 25 | $880,995 | $11,870,671 | + $10,989,676 |
Gallup’s market value is projected at 4 years and $47,482,684, or $11,870,671 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. This is only $22,462 less per year than Kirk and $35,702 less per year than Chark. All three of them might sign identical deals. His salary increase is projected at $10.99 million for Dynasty Owners who want to keep Gallup on their team. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Hold him
The same recommendation as Chark and Kirk. Gallup played in only 9 games in 2021 after playing in 46 out of 48 games in his first three seasons. His WR ranking has slipped from WR22 in 2019 to WR38 in 2020 to WR84 in 2021. He dropped from averaging 15.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in 2019 to 10.8 per game in 2020 and 10.2 in 2021 due to the presence of CeeDee Lamb in the Cowboys lineup. Being able to average double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points on a team with Lamb, Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott along with the emergence of Dalton Schultz is a good sign that Gallup can be productive if he remains in Dallas or moves elsewhere in free agency. Staying in Dallas would reduce his value, but it would make the possibility of him turning into a bust at his new salary a lot less likely. A new home could unlock his full potential and make him a bargain. That alone is a good reason to hold on to Gallup.
Conclusion
We have nine free agent WRs who are expected to sign contracts of more than $10 million per season in free agency. However, the gap in total contract amount is wide as it ranges from as much as $129.34 million (Davante Adams) to as little as $26.36 million (Odell Beckham Jr.). Out of the nine WRs mentioned, eight of them are expected to retain a high roster percentage in Dynasty Owner and have at least some value.
As mentioned at the beginning of this article, there are a total of 19 WRs with Spotrac market values. The final ten will be highlighted next week as they all have market values of less than $10 million per year. The players on the high salary WR list were pretty much as anticipated, while there are some surprising WRs who don’t have a market value as well as vice versa. Read next week’s article to find out who made the list and who didn’t.
The weekly Dynasty Owner livestream with myself and Tim Peffer is back at its regular day and time – Wednesday at 4 PM (Eastern). Set the timer on YouTube so you don’t miss it live, or make sure to watch it afterwards. Either way, don’t forget to smash the Like button. You can also listen to it afterwards wherever you get your podcasts.
Please read all of the off-season articles from our Dynasty Owner team as well. On Mondays, I write about players, salaries and contracts to help new and returning Dynasty Owners navigate how to play our unique game. Jay Pounds is writing about everything on rebuilding your Dynasty Owner roster on Tuesday. Nate Christian is back for 2022 and will do prospect previews every Thursday. Finally, Friday is Free Agent Friday right now as Matt Morrison – The Jerk breaks down the free agents on every NFL team by division.
Thanks for reading and have a great day!
Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner