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Mike Williams
By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
The NFL Draft is less than two weeks away. I’m sure most of us will be captivated by it during that weekend, especially the first round. I’m planning on doing several “New Contract Spotlight” articles on rookies once they are drafted. After all, they will technically be on new contracts. This won’t start until at least the first Friday in May. As for today, let’s talk about some news and then Mike Williams’ new contract.
The News
Stefon Diggs (Extended by Buffalo at 4 years – $96,000,000)
Stefon Diggs has signed a massive $96,000,000 contract with Buffalo. As most of you know, this extension will not kick in for Dynasty Owners until at least next year. Enjoy his sub $15,000,000 contract while it lasts.
Brandin Cooks (Extended by Houston at 2 years – $39,600,000)
The same thing can be said for Brandin Cooks. He signed a nearly $20,000,000 per year contract extension with the Texans. Cooks finished as WR20 last season. I am expecting a slightly better finish this year. As I said though, Cooks’ extension will not replace his current contract until 2023.
Anthony Firkser (Signed by Atlanta at 1 year – $1,187,500)
The lone notable free agent from the Titans last year, Firkser has signed with the Atlanta Falcons. This move provides tight end depth for a team that had no “fantasy reliable” backup tight end. Kyle Pitts will of course be the starting tight end and the one that scores the most fantasy points over the next several seasons. I don’t believe there is much meat left on the bone for Firkser.
Derek Carr (Extended by Las Vegas at 3 years – $121,500,000)
Derek Carr has signed his dream contract. Starting in 2023, he will make over $40,000,000 per year. As much as I’ve loved Carr over the past few years (on his $25,000,000 contract), he will not be a great value once he’s at $40,000,000. I still like Carr as a real-life quarterback, but his roster percentage in Dynasty Owner will greatly drop next year.
Sammy Watkins (Signed by Green Bay at 1 year – $4,000,000)
I’m not going to predict this to happen, but I think it’s within the realm of possibility that Watkins leads the Packers in wide receiver fantasy points for the 2022 season. Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb are still there, but the departure of Davante Adams opens up room for a Number one wide receiver. It might be hard to believe, but Sammy is still only 28 years old. I’m hopeful that a $4,000,000 salary can provide Dynasty Owners a decent value.
A.J. Green (Signed by Arizona, Details unknown)
A.J. Green will be returning to Arizona for another season. I don’t expect he’ll have a better finish than his 2021 season (WR42). I think he’s still a fine drop candidate. It appears that nearly 75% of you agree as his roster percentage is currently at 27.85%.
New Contract Spotlight
Mike Williams’ new contract is what’s on the agenda today. More specifically, it’s interesting how Williams is not the “number one” wide receiver on his team, but he is the sixth highest paid wide receiver in the NFL. I’ll get into that a little more later. First, let’s see what I said about Williams back in February…
“Mike Williams is one of the biggest free agents this off-season. He has been perennially undervalued, and it is mainly because of his injury history. Here at Dynasty Owner, an almost 16 million dollar salary is not great value when it comes to a WR2 and an inconsistent one at that. I like Williams to return to the Chargers in 2022 as it won’t cost much more to sign him. I think his going rate will be around 18 million dollars per year.”
Williams ended up signing a 3 year – $60,000,000 contract. This means he will make $20,000,000 per year. As I said above, he will be the sixth highest paid wide receiver in Dynasty Owner this year. The contract ensured that the Chargers have the two highest paid wide receiver teammates of anyone in the NFL. The next closest are Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.
So, what are we talking about when we think of Mike Williams? Well, last year he finished as WR12. I would think he will be in the mix for a WR1 (Top 12) again. Let’s take a look at some new contract comparisons to Williams’ new contract…
| Player | Signing Age | Status | Team | Salary per Year | Season Finish |
| Mike Williams | 27 | Signed | LA Chargers | $20,000,000 | TBD |
| Chris Godwin | 26 | Signed | Tampa Bay | $20,000,000 | TBD |
| Keenan Allen | 27 | Signed | LA Chargers | $20,025,000 | WR14 (2020) |
| Adam Thielen | 28 | Signed | Minnesota | $16,050,000 | WR10 (2020) |
Mike Williams’ closest comparison is another player who just recently signed a $20,000,000 contract as well. That player is Chris Godwin. Godwin is the closest comparison for Williams not only because of their identical contracts. He also is close to the same age, and they finished as WR12 (Williams) and WR16 (Godwin). My expectation is a similar finish for both players. I’ll get back to you at the end of this season to see how the comp went.
Oddly enough, Williams’ teammate, Keenan Allen, proves to be a pretty good comp from 2020. Allen had just signed a new contract worth $20,025,000 per year. He was 27 and went on to be WR14 that season. It is a little of a deceiving comparison as Allen was the clear cut Number one wide receiver for the Chargers that year, and Williams certainly won’t be this year. Regardless, I expect a similar performance.
Adam Thielen is the final comp for the day. In 2020, he was WR10 on the back of a 14 touchdown season. That combined with a $16,050,000 salary makes him another fine player to examine when it comes to Williams. Once again though, Thielen was the Number one receiver for his team, while Williams will likely not be.
I fully believe that the Chargers can support two Top 15 wide receivers as they did last year. Time will tell if that comes true.
Conclusion
I would be happy to own Williams in any of my Dynasty Owner leagues. As always, it comes down to how much you can save at other positions. I see him as a perfect second or third wide receiver if you are able to save on running backs.
As always, thank you for reading. If there is any player that you want me to Spotlight, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.
TheJerk