By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Today I will be finishing my “Don’t Tilt” series. This series is one of the first that I ever wrote for Dynasty Owner, and it’s truly one of my favorites to write each year. I’ll repeat the speech that I gave last week as I talk about the 16 teams that I didn’t get to in the first article.
“You may be asking yourself, “what does ‘don’t tilt’ mean?” Allow me to explain…
There are many reasons throughout the course of an NFL season that players are given up on. Conversely, there are also many reasons why players are overhyped a little more than they should be. This article is here to remind you to stay grounded…to stay levelheaded. It can be tempting to have wild emotional reactions to just a single week of football. I understand that it’s hard to fight that urge. We have been waiting for real NFL games for quite a while, and it stings when you are on the wrong side of a loss right out the gate. I get it. It’s not fun, but the worst thing you can do after that is make a decision based on emotion that you will regret later.
I will be giving you specific advice about certain players in these next two weeks, but let me sum it up this way.
Please be patient. Give it at least four weeks into the season before you start forming lasting ideas about what a player is or isn’t.”
With that being said, let’s continue from last week…
I’d like to tell you not to get your hopes too high on Nick Chubb ($12,200,000) after two weeks. He is currently the RB1 through those two weeks. I still like Chubb, don’t get me wrong, but it is going to be impossible to predict which Browns’ running back will be more valuable on a week to week basis. Congratulations on having him on your Dynasty Owner roster, and for sure put him in your Starting lineup, but don’t expect an overall RB1 finish at the end of the season.
Christian McCaffrey ($16,015,875) is currently the RB8 on Dynasty Owner. That is definitely a disappointing start for most of you. Any running back who is drafted in the first or second round of Dynasty Owner startup drafts (ADP 16.4) and has over a $16,000,000 salary needs to finish at least in the Top 5 for you to feel good about that. Barring injury, I think RB8 is his absolute, rock bottom floor. Trust the process and continue to start CMC. He will be a Top 5 RB before you know it.
Okay, it may be time to panic a bit with this next player. Matt Ryan ($30,000,000) has been downright bad for fantasy this year. The good news is that he’s only rostered in 23.4 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues. The bad news is that someone in almost one-fourth of Dynasty Owner leagues is still taking up valuable roster space and salary cap with him. He has less than 17.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points total in two games (16.5 to be exact). I’m not panicking. I’m telling you to drop him and be done with it. Or use an Amnesty Provision if you have one and save the 25% drop fee. You can roster players like Carson Wentz ($32,000,000) or Jared Goff ($33,500,000) instead. Both of them are available in more Dynasty Owner leagues than Ryan (17.02% roster percentage for Wentz and 4.26% for Goff).
Brandin Cooks has not been what his Dynasty Owners would have liked to see so far this season. He’s sitting at WR35 after two weeks, and he costs more than $16,000,000 per year. He hasn’t been awful. He’s just been “okay”. I’ll tell you that the difference between “okay” and “good” is more touchdowns. Cooks has yet to score a touchdown on the season. Stay calm. They will come. Once again, “trust the process”. I predict that Cooks will be a Top 24 wide receiver by the end of the season.
The fact that Kenny Golladay ($18,000,000) is rostered in almost 10 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues (9.79%) is baffling. He has two receptions on the season. He ran only two routes last week, and he reportedly was seen cleaning out his locker at the end of Week 2. I don’t think he’s departing from the team, but please, please, please drop him and move on. Use an Amnesty Provision if you have one or buy one if you can and save the 25% drop fee. He hasn’t been fantasy-relevant in over two seasons.
Give Treylon Burks ($3,592,398) some time to grow. We know the historical data on rookie wide receivers compared to second year wide receivers (Justin Jefferson – $3,280,701 and Ja’Marr Chase – $7,704,910 excluded). Be patient with Burks. Don’t sell low on his potential value.
A.J. Dillon ($1,321,458) is the RB16 on the season so far. It may not seem like it after the explosive game that Aaron Jones ($12,000,000) had in Week 2, but it is true. If both backs stay healthy, they will both finish in the Top 24 for RBs. Take a guess who the better value will be too…
You guessed it. It will be Dillon.
Adam Thielen’s ($16,050,000) Dynasty Owners should have some level of concern. He has less than receiving 100 yards on the season despite salvaging his Week 2 with some late receptions. At age 32, he is for sure nearing the end of his career. I just hope this isn’t his downfall year.
I’m going to be placing a Don’t Tilt warning on Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($2,705,393). This is another rare writeup on a player who has had a positive start to his season. CEH has a total of 38.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in his two games. I’m not saying that he will not be that productive for the rest of the season, but I think the odds are against it. He is averaging only 11 touches per game which ranks in a tie for 33rd among running backs in this young season.
I know that CEH can and should continue to be an efficient back, but I don’t have him finishing as a Top 12 running back on 11 touches a game. Temper expectations.
I’m not concerned about any Cardinals. James Conner’s ($7,000,000) ankle injury from Week 2 brings some level of concern with it. However, it sounds like he will not be missing an extended amount of time.
I’m hoping that when you drafted Josh Jacobs ($2,983,350) this season, you had an idea of what you were getting.
- A low efficiency running back who does not receive many targets.
- A running back whose production is largely game script dependent (negative when losing, positive when winning)
- A running back who is heavily reliant on touchdowns for production.
If you drafted him thinking all of these things then I don’t think you’re panicking. If you expected him to be a Top 15 player who you can consistently rely on to be in your Starting lineup, then you may be thinking twice about his role. Either way, don’t let him go for cheap. He deserves a spot as a Bench running back at least.
Don’t panic about Justin Herbert’s ($6,644,688) injury. I am far from an injury expert, and I rarely comment on specific injuries for that reason, but I am unconcerned about Herbert. Even if he misses a couple of games (unlikely), he will come back to pre-injury performance. As long as you have a somewhat serviceable Bench quarterback (Derek Carr – $25,000,000 or Daniel Jones – $6,416,014), I would have no interest in trading Herbert for less than top value.
Don’t worry too much about Mike Evans’ ($16,500,000) suspension. Take your lumps this week with him out of the lineup and return to putting him in your Starting lineup next week.
So, don’t panic, but there is going to have to be some serious reconsidering of the Cowboys’ fantasy outlook this season. The injury to Dak Prescott ($40,000,000) is devastating. It is obviously crushing to the Cowboys’ playoff chances and also the fantasy production of CeeDee Lamb ($3,502,503), Ezekiel Elliott ($15,000,000), Dalton Schultz ($10,931,000) and Tony Pollard ($796,945). Like I said, don’t panic sell any of these players for cheap, but temper expectations for the first half of this season.
I am worried about Russell Wilson ($35,000,000). I don’t think he’s “washed” or unable to bounce back from this slump, but I don’t see his opponents getting any easier. He played the Seahawks and Texans. In those two starts, he was only able to average 19.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. That’s not a terrible stat line, but it puts him on pace for 326.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. That would have been QB14 last year (just ahead of Ryan Tannehill – $29,500,000 – who had 325.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). That would be a very disappointing season for his Dynasty Owners. I think he will likely bounce back, but like I said, the future defenses he’s going to face aren’t going to get easier.
I have no concerns for any of the offensive weapons from Seattle. The fact that their team as a whole will likely be in the bottom third in terms of record means that fantasy scoring may be hard to come by. I think most Dynasty Owners knew that when they drafted any of these players this season, and it was built into their ADP for the most part.
I thank you all for reading and for continuing to support Dynasty Owner. Next week I will be starting a Blind Player Comparison article series. I can’t wait to get into it.
Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.