Thursday Night Football Week 2

Chargers @ Chiefs

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

To start this week’s Thursday Night Football article, I will be recapping all of my Value of the Game (VOTG) predictions from last year so everyone can track my choices. I will be doing that every week this year.

As for last year, I finished with an overall record of 8-9. This means that I chose the VOTG correctly eight weeks (not necessarily the right stat line, but the right player) and incorrectly nine weeks. This isn’t terrible, but it’s also not where I want to be. I will look to be better this season.

What To Watch For

Last week’s Thursday Night Game left a lot of us largely disappointed.  I was disappointed not only in the game itself, but with a lot of the fantasy output (Allen Robinson – $15,500,000, Cam Akers – $1,543,258, and Dawson Knox – $880,400).

I had a lot of hope for last week’s game so I’m going to carry that hope over to this week. This will be a good game for sure as it should be one of the highest scoring games of the week. I’m looking to see if JuJu Smith Schuster ($3,250,000) can continue as Patrick Mahomes’ ($45,000,000) second favorite target. I also want to see if Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($2,705,393) can remain as efficient as he did in Week 1. He had only 10 touches, but 22.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (DOFP).

Value of the Game Recap

My Value of the Game prediction for Week 1 was Gabe Davis. I went out of my way to make an outlandish stat line for Davis. I had him at…

Week 1 ProjectionSalaryReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
Gabriel Davis$998,5956108231.8

This projection included a 3-point Clutch scoring bonus for a lead changing score at the end of the game. While Davis had a very efficient and solid fantasy game, he did not get to the week-winning level that I thought he would.

Week 1 ActualSalaryReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
Gabriel Davis$998,5956108231.8

Regardless, Gabe Davis was still the Week 1 Value of the Game. The next closest player was Darrell Henderson who had 12.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points on a $1,053,001 salary. There were several other players on the Bills and Rams with salaries around $1 million or under, but nobody other than Davis and Henderson in that salary range had double-digit DOFP like both of them did.

Overall Record: 1-0

Starters

All the players on this list are ones who I would be very comfortable starting in Dynasty Owner this week.

Patrick Mahomes ($45,000,000)

Justin Herbert ($6,644,688)

Both quarterbacks in this game are top five fantasy options. Don’t get cute by trying to Bench one of them.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($2,705,393)

CEH put up the second best fantasy performance of his short career with 22.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. I expect another touchdown this week as well.

Austin Ekeler ($6,125,000)

JuJu Smith-Schuster ($3,250,000)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($10,000,000)

MVS had a somewhat disappointing 8.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 1. I have him passing the double digit mark with 11.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points tonight.

Keenan Allen ($20,025,000)

OUT

Mike Williams ($20,000,000)

Expect a big game out of Williams given the absence of Keenan Allen. A 100 yard receiving game should be easily achievable.

Travis Kelce ($14,312,500)

Gerald Everett ($6,000,000)

Bench

Here at Dynasty Owner, you not only get points from your Starting lineup, but also from your Bench. Your Dynasty Owner teams get 25 percent of the points scored from players on your Bench added to the total final score. This means that Bench scoring could (and often does) affect the outcome of individual matches as well as championships.  Here are the players I would be okay putting on my bench.

Josh Palmer ($1,258,365)

Skyy Moore ($1,612,625)

Mecole Hardman ($1,248,763)

All three of these players are fine, young receivers, but they haven’t shown enough for me to trust them in a Starting lineup.

Value of the Game

There were a few rare times last year when I picked a Bench player to be my VOTG. This was due to the fact that all the starters will likely have too high a salary to be in contention. That is exactly what is happening this week. The only two players I could have considered from the Starters category are CEH and JuJu. Even with this consideration, their salaries are still going to be too high to qualify.

Today, I’m going with Mecole Hardman.

Week 2 ProjectionSalaryReceptionsReceiving YardsTDsDOFP
Mecole Hardman$1,248,763266114.6

I am predicting low involvement from Hardman, but he will connect with Mahomes for a 40-plus yard touchdown. As you can see, the risk is too high to justify a Starting lineup position for Hardman, but he does have upside. Think about it like this. Hardman is the most tenured wide receiver for the Chiefs. I don’t expect a breakout season, but I do expect a breakout Week 2. Let’s see if I can make it 2-0 with my picks this week.

(This segment was written prior to Hardman’s touchdown score in Week 1)

The only other player that I even considered as a VOTG pick was CEH, but his salary is just too high to justify it. Even just a 3 receptions for 70 receiving yards line for Hardman would be a tall task for Clyde to do better than from a value perspective.

Don’t forget to check back in next week to see if my VOTG selection is correct. I wish all of you a great second week of the season. Thank you all for reading. Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

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