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By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Hello everyone and welcome to the back half of the NFL regular season. We are well on our way to the Dynasty Owner playoffs. This means that there will be a winner in each of your leagues. There will also be a new Chase for the Ring Champion crowned. If you are unfamiliar with Dynasty Owner, the Chase for the Ring is our ultimate Champion of the year. It is also the ultimate goal for every Dynasty Owner. In order to win The Ring, you have to win your Dynasty Owner league, and you have to have the most points scored of any Champion throughout the whole platform. If you accomplish this, you will win a diamond studded, NFL replica championship ring.
Now, in order for someone to win this title, they obviously have to have an eye for talent with a “win now” team. But more than that, they have to be able to find value. That’s what I harp on the most in Dynasty Owner. Value is king. It has to be when you play in a salary cap league. Well today I’m going to start my ultimate value article series of the year…
Opportunity Is (Almost) Everything
This will be my third year writing this series, and it’s one of my favorites. Here is the same spiel I gave last year, and it sums up what I’ll be talking about over the next four weeks.
“A few years ago, I came across a few underutilized metrics that, I think, can help bridge the gap between opportunity and fantasy production. So often we compare Player x to Player y without having the full context of their seasons. I am guilty of comparing players that I know haven’t had the same opportunity. These metrics are also a great way to see which players are on the field, but aren’t receiving the opportunity you would expect.”
Today we will be talking about quarterbacks. This article will be limited to players in my Top 20 at each position. I’m going to be presenting some of the leaders in each of these categories…
- Total Opportunities
- Opportunities per Snap (Opp/Snap)
- Dynasty Owner Fantasy Points (DOFP) per Opportunity (DOFP/Opp)
So often we talk about how much a player’s opportunity means to fantasy production (especially for running backs). Well over the next month, I’m going to show you that while it is very important, opportunity isn’t quite everything.
Total Opportunities
A quarterback opportunity is defined as any pass or rushing attempt. Quarterbacks are naturally going to get more opportunities than any other position as they facilitate the delivery of the ball on nearly every play.
| Player | Team | Salary | Opportunities | DOFPs |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | $8,914,504 | 419 | 210.1 |
| Tom Brady | TB | $15,000,000 | 410 | 184.6 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | $6,644,688 | 373 | 176.8 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | $9,047,534 | 368 | 259.6 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | $43,005,667 | 360 | 275.1 |
We can see that Kyler Murray is leading the league in opportunities. This isn’t really working out well for the Cardinals as they are in last place in the NFC West. He is QB7 on the year, but he is really being asked to do too much with 360 passing attempts already.
There are no other real surprises here. Joe Burrow is perennially on this list as he is always near the league lead for passing attempts. That statement also applies to Brady. Josh Allen is on a pass heavy offense, and he also rushes more efficiently than any other player on this list.
Opportunities Per Snap
When I break this down further, I can look at a player’s opportunities per snap. This is essentially how often a player gets a chance at fantasy points when they are on the field. This was a very useful metric in D’Andre Swift’s ($2,134,728) first year in the league. I remember that he topped this list for running backs, and it made sense if you thought about it. He was not being used much early on, but when he was on the field, he had amazing production. Here are the Top 5 for quarterback Opportunities per Snap (Opp/Snap).
| Player | Team | Salary | Opportunities | DOFPs | Snaps | Opp/Snap |
| Josh Allen | BUF | $43,005,667 | 360 | 275.1 | 509 | 0.71 |
| Tom Brady | TB | $15,000,000 | 410 | 184.6 | 628 | 0.65 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | $6,644,688 | 373 | 176.8 | 576 | 0.65 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | $8,914,504 | 419 | 210.1 | 650 | 0.64 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | $45,000,000 | 358 | 273.7 | 562 | 0.64 |
This is a very similar list to last year. Allen and Brady were both one and two around this time, and once again it makes sense. Allen has a massive passing baseline, but he also adds to it with rushing. Brady has thrown more passes than anyone in the league, and it’s not close. He is at 398 while Kyler is second at 360.
As far as the rest of the list goes, they are just high volume passers.
Dynasty Owner Fantasy Points Per Opportunity
Here is where we tie it all together. This is where you may get a surprise or two. And this is where we may even be able to start predicting a breakout or at least a continuation of a breakout. Dynasty Owner fantasy points per Opportunity (DOFP/Opp) is how many Dynasty Owner fantasy points a player gets every time they get an opportunity for production. It’s an efficiency ranking essentially. Here is the Top 10 for DOFPs/Opp and look who number one is…
| Player, Team | Team | Salary | Opportunities | DOFPs | Snaps | Opp/Snap | DOFPs/Opp |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | $7,568,859 | 234 | 190.4 | 383 | 0.61 | 0.81 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | $45,000,000 | 358 | 273.7 | 562 | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | $43,005,667 | 360 | 275.1 | 509 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | $1,506,292 | 327 | 233.4 | 557 | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | $9,047,534 | 368 | 259.6 | 601 | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | $23,016,000 | 343 | 240.8 | 577 | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | $4,717,989 | 278 | 183.1 | 567 | 0.49 | 0.66 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | $3,500,000 | 324 | 210.3 | 573 | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | $7,000,000 | 223 | 140.6 | 414 | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| Marcus Mariota | ATL | $9,375,000 | 261 | 158.1 | 547 | 0.48 | 0.61 |
No quarterback has been more efficient with their opportunities so far in 2022 than Tua Tagovailoa. Tua has only 234 opportunities (pass attempts plus rush attempts) so far this season. The reason for this is nuanced. First, he is on a rush heavy offense. It’s also a rush heavy offense that doesn’t particularly like to use the quarterback to run a lot. This makes sense given his previous concussions this year. Speaking of injuries, that is part of the reason for this as well. Tua essentially missed two and a half games this year. That will obviously bring his total opportunities down. However, he has had some massive blow up games that put him over the edge for DOFPs/Opp.
Mahomes, Allen, Hurts and Burrow round out the Top 5. This makes sense. While they all have many more opportunities than Tua, they are roughly scoring just as many fantasy points per game.
The player I really want to talk about on this list is Justin Fields. Even after last week’s game (51.9 DOFPs), I did not expect him to be in the Top 10 in efficiency. Fields has a relatively low passing volume (187 attempts), but a very high rushing volume (91 rushing attempts). Not only is this a recipe for an efficient quarterback, but it is also a recipe for a high scoring fantasy quarterback. If Fields keeps getting the same rushing work he’s had the past four weeks, he will finish as a Top 5 quarterback at the end of the season. Pair this with his low volume of work, and his low salary, and you have a potential league winner. Fields’ salary is too high for him to have any chance at the Value of the Year.
The final thing I want to mention today is that quarterback efficiency and scoring in general is down on the season. I don’t think that’s a surprise to anyone, but these numbers prove it. At roughly this point last year, the Top 10 quarterbacks ranged from 0.70 – 0.86 for DOFPs/Opp. As you can see above that range is much lower (0.61 – 0.81). It’s also interesting that Matthew Stafford was number one in efficiency in early November last year. This year he is at 0.39 DOFPs/Opp and is well below everyone in the Top 20 scoring quarterbacks.
Conclusion
I hope you all enjoy reading these Opportunity articles as much as I enjoy writing them. I think it’s fun to sit back and look at some of these numbers as a guide for how a season or middle of a career is going.
Thank you for reading. Next week I will continue my series and talk about some running backs and their opportunities. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.
TheJerk