By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
It’s no secret that this time of year is one of dynasty fantasy football lovers’ favorites. As I mentioned in my article from two weeks ago, there are many NFL happenings in March and April. These events reach their climax at the NFL Draft. The draft provides hope to NFL teams as well as us as Dynasty Owners. Hope that the next season can be better than the previous. This is where draft picks come into play. Every year, there are 13 rookie draft picks that are assigned for the first round of every established Dynasty Owner league. All of these picks can be traded except for the 1.13 per the Dynasty Owner Constitution.
“Round 1 will have a 13th bonus pick – determined by the Loser’s tournament and awarded to the loser’s tournament winner. The 13th pick is not tradeable and has to be used by the team who wins it in the following season’s rookie draft. There is no rollover to future seasons.”
All of these first 12 picks can provide a great deal of hope to their Dynasty Owners, but in some cases they may present great opportunities as well. A team that is in “Win Now” mode may see the 1.06 as a pawn in his or her plan to acquire a veteran player. That is what this article series is going to be about. I will put together 12 trade examples that I deem to be fair value on both sides. I’ll discuss one trade for every pick in the first round excluding the 1.13. Some of these trades are actually real trades that have been made recently. Real trades will be highlighted in bold font and underlined. I’ll lay out the top 6 picks in this article, and then my next article will take care of the other 6.
First Round Trades
1.01
Trading for the number one overall pick in any season is not going to be an easy task. That is especially true for the 2023 season. Bijan Robinson is far and away the consensus 1.01 pick for dynasty leagues. This is even true for Super Flex and Dynasty Owner. Robinson will likely be taken first in this year’s rookie drafts in over 80 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues. In order to obtain the 1.01 pick, you are going to have to pay up for it. If you want the 1.01 pick, this is what I think it would take to make it happen.
1.01 = 1.02 & 1.06
1.01 = 1.03 & 2024 1st round rookie pick (TBD)
1.01 = Jonathan Taylor ($1,957,287) & 1.05
1.01 = O.J. Howard ($1,232,500), Breece Hall ($2,253,694), 1.07 & 3.11
Like I said earlier, it is going to take a lot to get Bijan. For some Dynasty Owners, this may not be enough either, but it’s what I consider fair.
1.02
Pick 1.02 is a totally different animal because you know that you are very likely to take a quarterback with this pick. Which QB you may ask? That will have to be decided after the NFL Draft. My money is on either C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young. This is what it may take to get them.
1.02 = 1.05 & 1.07
1.02 = Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372) & 1.07
1.02 & 2.02 = 1.05, 1.06 & Cole Kmet ($1,894,445)
1.02 & Aaron Rodgers ($50,271,667) = Chris Godwin ($20,000,000), George Pickens ($1,688,045) & three 2025 2nd rookie round picks (TBD)
Lawrence and a 2023 mid-1st round rookie pick seems fair to me. The opportunity to get a younger QB on a rookie contract for two years longer is worth the 1.07.
1.03
1.03 is likely going to be whoever is left between Stroud and Young. That isn’t going to be true in every circumstance, but will likely be the case in most Dynasty Owner leagues.
1.03 = 1.07 & 1.09
1.03 = Ja’Marr Chase ($7,704,910)
1.03 = Justin Jefferson ($3,280,701)
I’m not sure I would trade Jefferson or Chase straight up for the 1.03, but I see the case for it. Chase is on the higher end for rookie wide receiver salaries, and he has two years left on that salary. Jefferson’s salary is less than half of Chase’s salary, but Jefferson only has a single year left on his rookie deal. I could make a case for identical value for both players at this point in their career. That being said, I think a 1.03 is a fair trade. I wouldn’t expect many people are willing to let either elite receiver go for just that pick, but if you are desperate, those trades could work.
1.04
The 1.04 could go in the direction of any of the three major positions. Anthony Richardson (QB), Jahmyr Gibbs (RB), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR), or Jordan Addison (WR) are all in contention for this fourth pick.
1.04 = 1.11 & 1.12
1.04 = Garrett Wilson ($5,138,502)
1.04 = 1.07 & D’Andre Swift ($2,134,728)
The 11th and 12th rookie draft picks were traded for the 1.04 in a real Dynasty Owner league less than two weeks ago. I think this is great value for the pick considering you are moving up for either the top WR or third best QB in the class. The 1.11 and 1.12 picks would get you roughly the fourth best WR and/or RB in the class.
1.05
1.05 = 1.07 & 2.12
1.05 = Stefon Diggs ($24,000,000)
Trading the 1.07 and a very late 2nd in order to move up two spots is fine value. If you have your guy picked out and you want him, by all means move up and sacrifice that 2.12. Odds are that if you want him, he won’t make it two more picks to your 1.07.
I recently traded my 1.05 for Stefon Diggs. This is not great value from a monetary standpoint. In fact, it’s pretty poor, but I am looking to win this year. I have a solid team with enough salary cap room to take on this trade. I was looking for one or two wide receivers to put me over the edge. I found it in Diggs.
1.06
1.06 = 1.12 & 2.03
1.06 = 2024 1st round rookie pick (TBD) & 10 Dynasty Dollars
1.06 = Drake London ($5,383,617)
The first trade is just mixing and matching picks like most of my other first trades have been.
This second trade is one of my favorites though. This trade only works if you have complete faith that the person you are trading with will not only be in the bottom half of the league standings in 2023, but that they will finish in the bottom three. But if you can trade a mid-1st round rookie draft pick this year for a top 1, 2 or 3 pick next year…well that is great value.
Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.
TheJerk