Josh Downs
Position: WR
College: North Carolina
Height: 5’ 9”
Weight: 171lbs
Age: 21
247 Rating: 0.9563 4-Star
By: Nate Christian (@NateNFL)
The Rundown:
It’s funny, when you pull up the profile for Josh Downs the first thing you notice is that he’s small. But as soon as you put on the tape, his size is the least of your worries. Downs plays like a much bigger player, catching 13 of 18 contested catch targets (best for 8th in the NCAA last year). His ability to create separation but also win the 50/50 balls makes him a target hog with the upside to pull in a high number of receptions.
College Production:
With Sam Howell ($1,005,400) throwing the passes and the duo of Dyami Brown ($1,236,000) and Dazz Newsome ($870,000) moving on to the NFL, Downs stepped into the WR1 role and took off in 2021. As a sophomore that year he caught 101 passes for 1,335 yards and eight touchdowns. His junior year catching passes from future first round pick Drake Maye, he amassed 94 receptions for 1,029 yards and 11 touchdowns. One of the best receivers in college football over the past few years, Downs takes a ton of talent and production with him into the NFL.
Strengths:
- YAC AbilityGreat burst to eat up space quickly after the catch. His acceleration (4.48 40-yard dash) shows on the field as he can turn up field quickly. He will sometimes go backwards to go forwards, which could hurt in the NFL, but he has the athletic talent to pull it off.
- SeparationDowns creates separation in multiple ways. He can create separation with his burst off the line, getting a step on the defender quickly and making him turn his hips before he is ready. He’s also a great route runner who has a nose for finding space whenever his quarterback needs him.
- Contested Catch SituationsDowns doesn’t play like a 5’ 9” receiver. He’s able to threaten the defense down-the-field at times, and win in contested catch situations. He’s got great body control and flashes his hands late. With his timing and physicality, he was able to win 75% of his contested targets last year.
Weaknesses:
- SizeThat’s about it. His lack of size certainly limits him to the slot, but that could be all it does. It may end up too large of a hurdle to overcome as we’ve seen talented players struggle before because they just weren’t big enough to play at the next level. I think Downs has the talent to overcome and that the modern NFL is more open to his profile. Meaning for me, this isn’t too much of an issue.
Projected Round/Contract:
Josh Downs is sitting on the border of being a first rounder or a very early second round pick. This is a common area for the top receivers in a class to sit, only the best of the best are selected in the first 15 picks, and Downs’ limitations around size keep him from that elite tier. If he is a late first round pick, Downs would be looking at a salary of around $3.1 million to $3.5 million a year. If an early Day 2 pick, that drops at least $600,000 per year to around $2.3 million to $2.48 million a year. Either way, the projected fantasy production that Downs could take on out of the slow, he would look to be a high value FLEX play rather quickly.
Team Fits:
Ultimately, Downs’ size may drop him to the second round. With some slot-receiver-needy teams sitting at the top of the second round, it may not take long on that Friday night for Downs to hear his name called. First up is the Indianapolis Colts at pick 35 overall. With the Paris Campbell ($4,700,000) project finally leaving town an opening has appeared at the slot receiver position for the Colts. They signed Isaiah McKenzie ($1,232,500), but on a cheap, one year deal so they may be looking to find a similar style player in the NFL Draft, and the value of Downs at the 35th pick would be tempting. The room would be a little crowded for fantasy purposes, but the Colts would surely love to pair a dynamic player like Downs with the two big receivers they have on the outside in Michael Pittman ($2,153,213) and Alec Pierce ($1,650,336).
Another team that pops into mind at the top of the second round is the Seattle Seahawks. Tyler Lockett ($17,250,000) is getting older every year and the Seahawks have a potential out after this 2023 season. While Downs is not a Lockett clone, he would be able to compliment DK Metcalf ($24,000,000) well with the work he could do out of the slot. Quarterback Geno Smith ($25,000,000) would be a great distributor to pair with a slot receiver like Downs.