By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Hello Dynasty Owners. Thank you for continuing to support this great format, and thank you for continuing to read my content. Today, I am going to continue my “Best Case, Worst Case” article series. Over my past two articles, I discussed some NFL Draft scenarios before the actual NFL Draft as well as many rookie scenarios after the NFL Draft was over. Today is the veterans’ turn. I will break down five players (and their contracts) and lay out what I believe to be their best and worst case scenario for the 2023 season.
Best Case, Worst Case
Justin Herbert ($6,644,689)
Herbert finished as QB11 last season to the tune of 343.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Herbert had a down year at least when you compare it to his 2021 season when he finished as QB3, only behind Tom Brady who is now retired, but cost $25,000,000 that season and Josh Allen ($43,005,667). So, what does a best case scenario and worst case scenario look like for Herbert?
Best Case: The best case for Herbert is probably right at his 2021 production. I find it hard to believe that he could become the QB1 with all the great rushing quarterbacks in the game right now. Herbert’s lack of rushing upside makes him unlikely to finish at the top in any year. No, I think his ultimate ceiling is QB3, which would put him right at around 500.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (DOFP) for 2023 and these stats…
| Passing Yards | Passing TD | Rushing Yards | Rushing TD | INT | DOFP |
| 4,950 | 39 | 250 | 2 | 12 | 482.5 |
These stats are excluding fumbles as those are nearly impossible to predict and any bonuses for over 300 yards passing or clutch scoring bonuses. That stat line would put Herbert right at 482.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for 2023. This would have been good for QB3 last year as his points would have been sandwiched between Josh Allen who had 525.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and Joe Burrow ($9,047,534) who finished with 472.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
Worst Case: Barring injury, the worst case for Herbert is honestly something very close to his 2022 season. I think QB11 should be near the floor for a quarterback as talented as and with as many weapons as Herbert.
| Passing Yards | Passing TD | Rushing Yards | Rushing TD | INT | DOFP |
| 4.400 | 25 | 180 | 0 | 12 | 352.0 |
Again, excluding fumbles, yardage bonuses and clutch scoring bonuses, Herbert would be at 352.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points with this stat line. This would likely land him close to QB12 on the season. As is the case with all of these predictions, the truth will likely be found in the middle. I am predicting a QB6 finish for Herbert this season.
Nick Chubb ($12,200,000)
Chubb finished as the RB5 in 2022 with 297.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. This was a very healthy season for Nick, and I’m looking forward to it continuing into 2023.
Best Case: The best case for Chubb is that he starts to see over 75% of the running back snaps this year and he keeps the same efficiency as previous years. This could primarily come because Kareem Hunt ($6,000,000) remains unsigned. This jump in usage (roughly 20%) would skyrocket Chubb’s value especially if receiving work comes with those increased snaps.
| Rushing Yards | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Total TD | DOFP |
| 1,815 | 32 | 284 | 15 | 331.9 |
This would be a massive year for Chubb, and it honestly could skyrocket him to RB1. I don’t think that is out of the realm of possibility. These stats would yield somewhere just north of 330.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
Worst Case: The worst case for Chubb is that a veteran running back is brought in to split the workload. Chubb would still remain the primary back, but what if he returns to his future workload or even less. A reduction of rushing touchdowns could be coming as well if Deshaun Watson ($46,000,000) can get the passing game looking healthier in 2023. Regardless, I cannot see Chubb dropping out of the Top 12 regardless of who joins the team.
| Rushing Yards | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Total TD | DOFP |
| 1,300 | 20 | 180 | 8 | 216.0 |
J.K. Dobbins ($1,432,359)
Dobbins had flashes of his old self last season despite not being involved in nine regular season games. He often looked slower than usual, but that is also not uncommon after a return from his multiple career injuries. Dobbins was RB54 with only 85.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
Best Case: The best case for Dobbins is that he returns as the explosive, shifty running back who the Ravens drafted several years ago. The data on ACL tears (on average) shows a loss of production, but Dobbins has youth on his side. He is not yet 25, and he will also be entering a contract year.
| Rushing Yards | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Total TD | DOFP |
| 978 | 45 | 351 | 12 | 249.9 |
I know that all of my “Best Cases” are optimistic scenarios, but I think this one is very optimistic, especially the total touchdowns. Gus Edwards ($4,500,000) is still under contract, and he will vulture TDs. However, if Dobbins can find a way to cross 10 total touchdowns, he will almost certainly be at least an RB2.
Worst Case: Again, other than injury, the worst case is that Dobbins shows that he has clearly “lost a step” due to his ACL injury. This could lead to less usage and more reliance on Edwards and/or the passing game.
| Rushing Yards | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Total TD | DOFP |
| 564 | 31 | 213 | 4 | 132.7 |
That wraps up the main part of my article. I got through the three players I wanted to talk about. As a bonus today, I’m going to add two extra players and do a quick assessment of both.
Tyler Lockett ($17,250,000)
Best Case: The best case for Lockett is going to be similar to his 2022 season. Last year, he finished as WR17. I’d put his best possible season at WR12. Here’s what it would take to get to that…
| Receptions | Receiving Yards | Total TD | DOFP |
| 80 | 1,100 | 9 | 244.0 |
Worst Case: Worst case for Lockett is if Father Time finally catches up with him. He showed no signs of aging in his solid season last year, but that time comes for every athlete.
| Receptions | Receiving Yards | Total TD | DOFP |
| 71 | 860 | 4 | 181.0 |
Travis Kelce ($14,312,500)
Best Case: Best case for Kelce is that he continues doing what he has done for the past half decade. This means a TE1 finish that is well above the next closest finisher. Honestly, I think the best case is going to be close to his actual finish for the year.
| Receptions | Receiving Yards | Total TD | DOFP |
| 100 | 1,250 | 10 | 285.0 |
Worst Case: His worst case is similar to Lockett’s. At some point, Kelce will lose his athletic edge and he will decay as a fantasy asset. Will that happen this year? It’s anyone’s guess. What I will say is that if you predicted it for the past three seasons, then you have been missing out on fantasy dominance.
| Receptions | Receiving Yards | Total TD | DOFP |
| 73 | 900 | 7 | 205.0 |
Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.
TheJerk