By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Today I’m going to bring back an article series that I really enjoyed doing last off-season. In fact, it accounted for the majority of my writings. It is…the New Contract Spotlight series.
In these articles, I will lay out one player who received a contract increase or decrease since last season. It will be a good way to not only break down the player, but also the implications of his new salary. For the first four weeks of this series, I will also be giving a sneak peak of my Player Value Rankings. The full rankings will be released later this off-season.
Top 5 Quarterback Rankings
| Player | Team | Age | Salary | Years |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | 24 | $1,506,293 | 1 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | 24 | $4,717,989 | 2 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | 26 | $9,047,534 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | 25 | $6,644,689 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 27 | $45,000,000 | 9 |
It should be no surprise that we have an abundance of youth on this list. Remember, this is not who I think will finish the highest at the position for the 2023 season. Rather this is a value ranking that takes into account both production and salary.
First on this list is the player who I had ranked #2 on this list last season. That player is Jalen Hurts. Hurts finished as the QB4 last season, and he was (by far) the most valuable quarterback from a money standpoint. I expect a Top 5 QB finish for Hurts this year. Yes, I know that his salary is going to skyrocket to $51 million next season, but having a league winning player on that cheap of a salary for one more year is priceless
Justin Fields comes in second after he had a historic second half fantasy season. Expect his passing yards to increase in his junior season while I would also expect a slight drop in his rushing usage and overall numbers. Regardless, he is on a rookie salary for two more years, plus the Bears have the right to exercise the fifth-year option in his rookie contract before he can become a free agent. His rushing upside mixed with the cheap cost to own him makes Fields a rock solid overall QB2 for Dynasty Owner startup leagues.
Joe Burrow stays right where he was in my rankings at this time last year. Yes, he is a year older and closer to having his rookie contract expire and the Bengals have already exercised his fifth-year option at a salary of $29.504 million. For Dynasty Owner, I have Burrow as the third ranked quarterback in terms of production. If Burrow had an additional year left on his rookie contract like Fields does, then I would have him ranked higher.
Justin Herbert drops three spots compared to last year’s pre-season rankings. He struggled last season and that is the main reason for him dropping so far. I believe he will finish as a Top 8 QB this season, but I have much more faith that Burrow will do it. Herbert is solidly inside the Top 5…at least until next season.
Finally, we have Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is the odds-on favorite to finish as the overall #1 player in Dynasty Owner this season, but production is only half the equation for Dynasty Owner. That production will come at a cost. The cost is $45,000,000 this year or nearly 29 percent of the 2023 Dynasty Owner salary cap of $157.36 million. I would love to have Mahomes on my roster and I do roster him in a few Dynasty Owner leagues, but when it comes down to it, there are four guys who I would take ahead of him in Dynasty Owner startup drafts.
Recap:
- All five quarterbacks are relatively young and are expected to finish Top 10 at the position.
- I included zero rookie QBs just because I have no idea which ones will provide meaningful fantasy production in their first couple of years.
- Josh Allen ($43,005,667) and Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372) find themselves just outside of the Top 5, but both could easily slide in next year.
New Contract Spotlight
A.J. Brown ($25,000,000)
Let’s start with the facts on A.J. Brown. He finished as the overall WR5 for the 2022 Dynasty Owner season. He is projected as the WR7 for the upcoming season. In 2022, he had one of the lowest annual salaries ($1,413,092) for any top tier player. That changed in 2023, as he now makes $25,000,000 per year. He is 100 percent rostered in Dynasty Owner.
If you had him on your roster last season, you know that Brown was fantastic. He didn’t single handedly win me a championship, but he was the most common player I had on my championship rosters. I think that narrative is going to change for this upcoming season. Yes, he will continue to be 100 percent rostered. Yes, he will most likely finish as a Top 8 wide receiver this year once again, but his value has dropped significantly. Brown is currently being drafted in the middle of the 3rd round in Dynasty Owner startup drafts (ADP 28.5). This is a far cry from last year when he was consistently going in the first round of Dynasty Owner startup drafts. Some drafts had him falling to the second round because of his upcoming contract extension. Regardless, his value has fallen at least a full round in a year. However, I don’t think anything with his Dynasty Owner outlook has changed.
In 2022, Brown was looked at as both a “win now” piece and a dynasty stash piece. That hasn’t changed. Barring injury, he is going to win people their leagues, and he is still only 25 years old. The only thing that has changed is now you have to be more diligent with your salary cap in order to accommodate his salary increase. I will look to add Brown in any of my leagues if someone is looking to trade him. I have no problem paying a premium for him (2023 1st round rookie draft pick), but the salary cap is what has prevented me from obtaining him in more leagues.
As I said in the opening, this is the first article of many in this series. If you want me to talk about any player that is on your mind, you can message me directly on Twitter. Find me at @dynastyjerk and let me know if you have any questions or concerns.
I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.
TheJerk