By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Welcome Dynasty Owners to another New Contract Spotlight article. Last week, I started a new series for this year, but I have done this series in the past. The goal of these articles is to give you an idea of what to expect from players whose contracts have changed since the end of the 2022 season. Almost all of the players I talk about will have an increase in salary, and almost all of them will have a pretty major increase. Today is going to be no exception to that statement. I will be writing about Saquon Barkley and his new franchise tag. This will put his salary at $10,091,000 for the 2023 Dynasty Owner season. It is fitting that I talk about Barkley this week as he has reportedly not made an appearance at mandatory off-season practices.
This development gives validity to the idea that Saquon could be heading for a hold out until he receives a new contract. I’m not saying that this will carry over into the 2023 regular season or that it’s even likely, but it is possible, and Dynasty Owners need to be aware of that.
Before we get to this new contract breakdown, I’m going to continue unveiling my Top 5 player rankings. Last week, I rolled out my Top QB rankings and today it is the running backs’ turn. Keep in mind that these are overall value rankings. They take production, age and salary into account.
Top 5 Running Back Rankings
| Player | Team | Age | Salary | Years |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | 21 | $5,489,634 | 4 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 27 | $16,015,875 | 3 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 24 | $1,957,288 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | LAC | 28 | $6,125,000 | 1 |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | 22 | $2,253,694 | 3 |
There is a new king when it comes to running back value. His name is Bijan Robinson. I do realize that I’m making myself vulnerable with a pick like this. Yes, Bijan has not taken a real NFL snap yet. I realize that we haven’t seen him perform against professionals yet. My opinion is that he is as close to a safe rookie pick as I have seen in the past five years. If Bijan is healthy, he will be a lock to finish as a Top 10 running back, and he has Top 4 RB upside in his first season. If Tyler Allgeier ($998,474) could surpass 1,000 rushing yards in 2022 for the Falcons, then there is no reason that Robinson won’t get north of 1,200 rushing yards. As a rookie, Bijan is the youngest player on this list. I can confidently say that I would draft him as the first running back off the board in a startup Dynasty Owner league.
Coming in at #2 is the player who finished as the RB2 in 2022…Christian McCaffrey (CMC). McCaffrey may be 27 years old, but he has at least two full seasons of elite running back fantasy goodness in him. You won’t have the shelf life with CMC as you would have with other younger players outside the Top 5, but the production he puts up over the next three seasons should make up for it. I’d like to say that I would always choose CMC as my second running back in every situation, but that’s just not the truth. If I am centering my draft around “win now” players with an emphasis on top tier, expensive RBs, then I am perfectly fine taking CMC in the first round.
Jonathan Taylor drops two spots from last off-season where he was my #1 Dynasty Owner running back. The ugly truth is that he just did not have a great season last year. I hate to say it, but it was just downright bad. He missed a handful of games and even when he was “healthy”, his production dropped off as well. He finished as the RB32 in 2022. I realize that going back to the well with Taylor may end up burning me again, but I believe in the talent. I believe that this offense is going to have to run and depend on Taylor. The addition of a mobile, athletic starting quarterback doesn’t give me increased confidence in Taylor. In fact, it’s just the opposite. However, he is still going to be the workhorse running back for the team, and barring an injury, I have Taylor finishing at RB6 for this season. That production mixed with his sub $2,000,000 contract, makes me slide him into the overall RB3 spot.
Austin Ekeler is a player who I have been trying to acquire in every league that I can. He is in the final year of a very manageable contract for a running back. He is right at the age where he still isn’t “over the hill”. He just completed an overall RB1 season last year, and he is projected as a Top 3 RB this year as well. If it wasn’t for the fact that Ekeler is 28 years old, he would likely be the overall RB2 on this list. The Chargers also failed to bring in a free agent running back or take one in the NFL Draft who is capable of pushing Ekeler for playing time. The truth is that Ekeler is far and away the best running back on the team, and he will have plenty of scoring opportunities this year.
The final player on this list is Breece Hall. It pains me that he couldn’t be #2 on this list because that is exactly what he would be if he hadn’t suffered a season ending injury last year. I have high confidence that Breece will return to at least 95% of his previous athleticism and explosiveness, but I’m worried that it won’t all come back this year. The research shows that running backs one year removed from an ACL tear are less productive and efficient. I can’t tell you that this historical data will prove true for Hall as well, but I would tend to believe it will be true. Expect a good, yet slightly underwhelming year for Hall. I’m thinking of somewhere in the RB9 – RB15 range.
New Contract Spotlight
Saquon Barkley ($10,091,000)
The story for Saquon is pretty short so I will keep my analysis short as well. He had a bounce back season last year when he finished as the RB6. This was both a fine finish in startup drafts as well as Dynasty Owner in general as he was on his fifth-year option contract with a salary of $7,217,000. This off-season, the Giants offered Saquon a franchise tag which he has still not signed. The tag is worth $10,091,000 and that is what he costs to have on your Dynasty Owner roster at the moment.
Here’s the problem…Saquon hasn’t signed the tag, and he also hasn’t reported to mandatory practices this off-season. I wish I could lie to you and say that I’m unconcerned, but that wouldn’t be true. On a scale from 1 – 10, I’m at a 6 on the “panic meter.” This means that I am somewhat concerned about at least a partial holdout while also not panicking to the point that I am selling him for less than he is worth. This is the bottom line takeaway from Barkley’s situation:
He is unsigned, and he has stated that he has no intention of signing unless he gets a long-term offer that meets his expectations. Will he follow through with those demands? Your guess is as good as mine, but it is concerning. Dynasty Owners who roster Barkley need to keep it in the back of their mind that there is a chance he sits out this season. I don’t expect that to happen, but it’s possible. So, what are the possible outcomes and the odds of each one happening?
- Saquon plays on the franchise tag in 2023. (30%)
- Saquon and the Giants reach a long-term deal before the deadline. (45%)
- Saquon sits out for at least a portion of the 2023 season. (25%)
Keep in mind that if there is a large, long-term deal reached, this will immediately take over as the Dynasty Owner contract and salary amount for the 2023 season and Dynasty Owners will be on the hook for his new contract, which is almost surely to be over $10,091,000. If Saquon gets a new long-term deal before the July 17th deadline, his Dynasty Owners may also choose to drop him for free for seven days after the contract information is updated on the Dynasty Owner platform.
That’s it. That’s all I have on Barkley. We will know more as the season draws closer, but hopefully a deal is reached shortly so we can look forward to a productive season. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.