By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Tight ends in general and Giants TE Darren Waller ($17,000,000), in particular, will be the topic of conversation today as I continue my New Contract Spotlight series. More specifically, I will talk about his massive contract increase as well as what this means for his production and value for the 2023 season.
The plan is for this series to take us right up to the start of the regular season. I will also throw in some segments about the updated Top 5 or Top 10 from each position as it will likely change between now and September. Also don’t forget that my overall Dynasty Owner rankings will be coming out later this off-season. For now, let me finish up my Top 5 rankings with the tight ends…
Top 5 Tight End Rankings
| Player | Team | Age | Salary | Years |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | 27 | $14,000,000 | 3 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | 22 | $8,227,624 | 2 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 33 | $14,312,500 | 3 |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | 24 | $1,507,045 | 2 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 23 | $3,356,756 | 4 |
I found that the tight ends were the easiest list for me to put together. I think Andrews, Pitts and Kelce are clearly the top three choices even in a dynasty, value format. I then rounded out the rest of the Top 5 with young talent that has upside. Let’s talk about it.
Mark Andrews moves up to number one for the 2023 season. If you read my article last year, you know that he was TE2 while Kyle Pitts held the top spot. I still like Pitts from a career standpoint, but I see the upside of Andrews over the next four years to be much higher. Lamar Jackson ($52,000,000) has returned to the Ravens, and they look to be more of a pass happy offense than in previous years. I can, with confidence, say that Andrews would be the first tight end selected by me in Dynasty Owner startup drafts.
Kyle Pitts drops one spot to TE2 this year. This is what I stated last year around this time…
“Kyle Pitts is my number one tight end at this point in the off-season, and I don’t see that changing. To be honest, I think Pitts has the biggest amount of separation between a top position and second place. We know that Pitts has three years remaining on a middle-tier tight end contract. We also know that he is (remarkably) only 21 years old, and he will start the 2022 NFL as a 21 year old. He is currently the highest drafted tight end in Dynasty Owner ADP (23.0), and he is projected to finish as the TE3 this season. This is a no-brainer pick for me. It’s very rare that you get to draft a non-quarterback that has a high potential for a 10+ year career. This is exactly what you’re expecting out of Pitts.”
(Published July 1, 2022)
I’ll be honest…Pitts’ season last year really left a bad taste in my mouth. It wasn’t what he did so much as what his offense couldn’t provide for him. Pitts was often overthrown on a team that already had a very low passing volume. I look for the Falcons’ offense to improve this year, and I have Pitts as a Top 5 TE in 2023.
I shocked myself when I saw that I had Kelce as my TE 3 for value this year. Afterall, he is 33 years old, and he has a Top 3 highest salary for tight ends…But he just doesn’t stop. Kelce was far and away the best TE in 2022 where he beat the next closest tight end by more than 90 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (94.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to be exact). I don’t care what your salary is at that point. If you are decimating the fantasy competition then neither your salary nor your age matters. If Kelce can be even 80 percent of what he was in 2022 over the next two years, then I may even have him ranked too low. Draft Kelce with confidence and hopefully he will deliver you a Championship in the next couple of seasons.
Freiermuth stays in the same position he was in last year. Pat is a solid pass catching tight end on a cheap rookie salary with two years remaining. He won’t compete for the TE1 anytime soon, but he will finish in the Top 10 at a little more than $1,500,000 per year. Don’t spend a high pick on him, but if he falls to the middle of the sixth round, he should return value.
Finally, we have the top rookie tight end…Dalton Kincaid. There are several historical aspects working against Kincaid. As many of us know, rookie tight ends very rarely make a fantasy impact in their first couple of seasons. Kyle Pitts was no exception to that statement. It is usually a losing proposition to bet on rookie tight ends. The second thing working against Kincaid is the current Bills’ depth chart. There is a good chance that he will be third or maybe even fourth in targets for the 2023 season. Players like Stefon Diggs ($24,000,000) and Gabe Davis ($998,595) will almost certainly have more targets and receptions. Players like Dawson Knox ($13,000,000) and Khalil Shakir ($1,001,787) will also rival Kincaid for the third most targets and receptions for Buffalo.
Other tight ends that I briefly considered for the Top 5 list include…
- T.J. Hockenson ($9,392,000)
- George Kittle ($15,000,000)
- Dallas Goedert ($14,250,000)
New Contract Spotlight
Darren Waller ($17,000,000)
The write up for Waller today will be fairly short. He finished as TE31 in 2022 as he missed almost half of the season (8 games). We also know that he has since switched teams as he now plays for the New York Giants. The Giants assumed the contract extension that Waller signed with the Raiders for an average of $17,000,000 per year and that makes him the highest paid tight end in the NFL and in Dynasty Owner. Waller joins a team that is desperate for pass catching playmakers. The Giants had no reliable receiver for the entirety of the 2022 season.
So, what is the outlook for Waller? Well, he is obviously not going to be winning any value awards, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be an asset to your Dynasty Owner team. Waller is currently projected to finish as the TE4 this year. There is a very good chance that he leads all Giants’ players in targets and receptions. He is rostered in almost 96% of Dynasty Owner leagues. I have zero shares of Waller in any of my leagues just because I don’t see the value of having a non-top tier tight end at over $15,000,000. I would much rather roster a player like Chigoziem Okonkwo ($1,041,085) or Greg Dulcich ($1,314,785) who are being drafted around the same spot as Waller (ADP 112.0 for Okonkwo, 124.9 for Dulcich and 127.5 for Waller).
As always, thank you for reading. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.
TheJerk