Projections and Expectations
By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)
Fantasy football is a game of projections and expectations. The winners every week likely exceed those projections, while the losers fall short of them. The losers could also exceed projections, but not by as much as the winner exceeds theirs, or maybe both of them meet the projections, it’s just that one team was projected to be better and hit their higher projection while the other team hit theirs, but it wasn’t enough to win. Individual weekly player projections are even more subject to fluctuation than those for a whole team.
Expectations are different as everyone likely has a different expectation of how their NFL, Dynasty Owner, other fantasy football team, and individual players are going to do on a weekly basis. My weekly recommendations are a set of players who I have either high (Players to Start) or low (Players to Bench) hopes for in a given week. It doesn’t mean that I don’t like the player for the season or want them on my team. It just means that I think they are going to have a better or worse than expected weekly performance.
So far, there is really just one NFL team that is exceeding everyone’s expectations for them. Not even the most rabid Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan likely had their team at 3-1 with Baker Mayfield ($4,000,000) at QB in first year of the post-Tom Brady era. On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have three playoff teams from last year (Cincinnati Bengals, Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants) who are struggling at 1-3 on the season. Some people even had the highest of expectations for the Bengals and the Vikings as their pre-season predictions had those teams meeting in the Super Bowl. It’s still possible that both of them (and the Giants) rally to make the playoffs, but the possibility is dimming with each loss.
Certain players are clearly exceeding expectations for the season so far as well. You’d be hard pressed to find someone who predicted that both Jordan Love ($3,095,863) and Russell Wilson ($48,517,647) would be among the top 10 scorers in Dynasty Owner with bye weeks approaching and ahead of both Patrick Mahomes ($45,000,000) and Jalen Hurts ($1,506,293). Same thing goes with Puka Nacua ($1,021,244). Plenty of Dynasty Owners drafted him (rookie draft ADP of 33.2 and startup draft ADP of 235.3) but nobody projected him to have the kind of start to his NFL career that he’s had with 98.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, leading the NFL in targets and receptions and in second place in receiving yards. If you made any of those predictions, everyone is going to need to see proof before we believe you.
Finally, and maybe most importantly, it’s four weeks into the Dynasty Owner regular season and all Dynasty Owners should have a pretty good handle on how their team is doing compared to its projections and expectations. Hopefully they are exceeding both of them and if you have a Dynasty Owner team in that situation, then let me know by reaching out on Twitter/X (@SteveVT33) or sending it to Dynasty Owner on Twitter/X. You can also offer up that team to be featured as the Week 5 Match-up of the Week.
Thanks for reading my weekly preview article and for being a Dynasty Owner. Hopefully this article at least meet your expectations or even exceeds them by offering up four Good Starting lineup and Bench recommendations for Week 5.
Every week of the 14-game Dynasty Owner regular season and three game playoffs, I’ll present a player at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) who you should have as a Starter in your Dynasty Owner lineup. These won’t be the obvious choices. No recommendations to go ahead and start Christian McCaffrey ($16,015,875) who may have been projected as the top RB in Dynasty Owner, but was not projected to be the overall top scoring player in Dynasty Owner after four weeks of the season. He’s cemented in your Starting lineup unless something bad happens, or the 49ers are on bye. Other players who are rostered in 100% (or nearly 100%) of Dynasty Owner leagues with low ADPs who have scored lots of Dynasty Owner fantasy points, as projected and expected, won’t be mentioned either. Instead, I’m going to recommend you Start players outside the top players at their position, players drafted to be on your Bench or Practice Squad, or players who aren’t on a roster in every Dynasty Owner league.
After that, I’ll name one player per position who should be on your Bench or Practice Squad. For these Bench recommendations, it’s just the opposite. I’ll suggest players doing well so far and drafted early in Dynasty Owner startup drafts to be Starters, and also projected in the top 12 (QBs and TEs) or top 36 (RBs and WRs) in scoring this year. This section is where you might see some surprising players appear. However, the recommended Bench players shouldn’t be in your Starting lineup for the week based on matchups, past performance against a team or something else.
All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.
Any salaries, ADPs and roster percentages listed were current as of the morning of October 5th. All 2023 contract information is currently what is listed on the Dynasty Owner platform (number of years and salaries) and has been taken from Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/).
Dynasty Owner Player of the Week
Before we get into Week 5, let’s look at Week 4 and announce the Dynasty Owner Player of the Week. We have a first-time Player of the Week for the second week in a row. This player also plays the same position as last week’s Player of the Week De’Von Achane ($1,359,362) who is apparently spelling his name differently this week after correcting everyone last week about how to pronounce his name. No problems with our Week 4 Dynasty Owner Player of the Week as everyone knows him and is probably shocked to learn this is his first Player of the Week award. Our Week 4 winner is none other than Christian McCaffrey.
You read correctly. This is the first Player of the Week award for CMC who is the highest paid RB in Dynasty Owner and was the RB1 and overall #2 player back in 2019, but never had a week with 4 TDs and over 50.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 46 career games in Dynasty Owner history until now. McCaffrey exceeded his projections and the wildest expectations of even his biggest fans with 50.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (106 rushing yards, 7 receptions, 71 receiving yards, 4 TDs) to secure his first Player of the Week award. Congratulations CMC on being the current NFL leading rusher and winning this award for the first time.
Week 4 Points: 50.7
2023 Salary: $16,015,875
Cost per Point: $315,895
Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week
Because this is Dynasty Owner and we’re all looking for value from the players on our roster, we also have the Value Player of the Week. While CMC was winning his first ever Player of the Week award, the Value Player of the Week was racking up his second award of the 2023 season in just his fourth career NFL game. Once again, our Value Player of the Week is Puka Nacua.
If you thought Nacua was on his way back down to earth after “only” scoring 12.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (5 receptions for 72 receiving yards) or that he wasn’t going to score a TD because he had 30 receptions on 42 targets through three games without a tuddy, you were sorely mistaken. This week, Nacua set a career high in receiving yards with 163, scored his first career TD and caught 9 out of 10 targets, his best reception percentage so far. It added up to 34.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (9 receptions, 163 receiving yards, 1 TD) including the 3.0 point bonus because his 22-yard TD reception happened in overtime and was therefore a clutch scoring event. That reception was worth 12.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and put him over the top for this week’s Value Player of the Week award. Congratulations Puka on being the eighth player to earn multiple Value Player of the Week awards in the same season and the first player to do it in his rookie season. His $29,774 cost per point this week is the best of the 2023 season so far.
Week 4 Points: 34.3
2023 Salary: $1,021,244
Cost per Point: $29,774
These Guys Should be Starters This Week
Before we get into the weekly recommendations, I’ll always take a look at how my recommendations from the previous week fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok) and give a recap. The hope is that they meet my lofty expectations and exceed their weekly projections in order to have Dynasty Owner Starting lineup worthy performances in Week 4.
QB: Jameis Winston ($4,000,000) – -3.0 (Bad recommendation)
RB: Khalil Herbert ($902,677) – 24.2 (Good recommendation)
WR: Darius Slayton ($6,000,000) – 4.3 (Bad recommendation)
TE: Cole Turner ($999,720) – 0.0 (Bad recommendation)
Let’s start with the one Good recommendation who exceeded his projections. Khalil Herbert took advantage of his opportunity to shine against the Denver Broncos’ defense and produced 24.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (103 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 19 receiving yards, 1 TD). Other than Herbert, the rest of the recommendations were Bad and didn’t even come close to meeting their meager projections for the week.
Darius Slayton was largely a non-factor in the limited Giants offense on Monday night against Seattle. He was only targeted three times and caught two of those targets for 23 receiving yards (4.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). Slayton did the best out of the three Bad recommendations and from there, it’s a close call on which recommendation was worse. On one hand, you have Jameis Winston who didn’t start and only got in for one play in a week in which it seemed possible that he’d be the Saints’ starting QB. Instead, he threw one long pass late in the game that was intercepted so he had -3.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (1 INT). On the other hand, the Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) ushered by Cole Turner was equally or more terrible as he played a mere six snaps in the Commanders’ loss to the Eagles with no targets. The return of Logan Thomas ($8,021,667) to the team’s lineup meant there was little room for Turner, as it was mostly third TE John Bates ($1,050,604) on the field in two tight end sets. Obviously, neither Winston nor Turner met my lofty expectations, and both also fell short of their meager projections for the week as well.
After four weeks, my Starting lineup recommendations are definitely not hitting expectations as I’ve only had five Good recommendations overall and just one per week for each of the past three weeks. There have been eight Bad recommendations with three Bad QB recommendations in a row. Let’s hope that I can do better in Week 5 and find four players who will greatly exceed their projected point totals for the week.
Joshua Dobbs (QB – ARI): Barring an injury in practice, I’m confident that this week’s recommended QB selection Joshua Dobbs ($2,000,000) will at least be under center for more plays than Jameis Winston was last week. Dobbs is ranked as QB16 in Dynasty Owner so far this season, but he does have three consecutive games with 20.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points after starting off with -0.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 1.
The Cardinals have a matchup in Week 5 against the Bengals who are a middle of the road defensive team and only allowed 207.3 passing yards per game. Arizona has scored either 16 or 28 in all four of their games so far, so they have put up some points every week. Dobbs has been given the opportunity to throw a lot (123 pass attempts) and use his legs to scramble and run with the ball (24 rushing attempts).
Dobbs is averaging nearly 5.9 yards per carry (24 carries for 141 rushing yards), while the Bengals are allowing 5.1 yards per carry overall and just under 4.9 yards per carry to opposing QBs. Except for Lamar Jackson ($52,000,000), none of the other three QBs are particularly skilled running the ball and none of the three of the other QBs rank higher than QB18. Dobbs could run enough to give himself a decent floor of points and build on it from there with the passing. All in all, the signs are pointing to Dobbs exceeding his projections and being a top 12 weekly QB. It’s easier to get there than the first four weeks of the season with four teams out of bye this week.
Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT): I’m not ready to give up on Najee Harris ($3,261,862) after a few mediocre games this season, but I am ready to say that Jaylen Warren ($857,333) has earned his playing time and additional touches on offense with better performances than Harris so far this year. Harris is RB38 with 28.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (210 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 34 receiving yards), while Warren is RB27 with 38.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (84 rushing yards, 18 receptions, 127 receiving yards, 1 fumble). Warren is essentially splitting time with Harris now as both played 29 snaps (49%) in Week 4.
Warren’s touches have increased every week as well starting with eight in Week 1 and progressing up to 14 touches in Week 4. The number of touches both have been getting have been very similar in all but Week 3 when Harris had 19 touches (all rushing attempts) to 11 touches (8 rushing attempts and 3 receptions) for Warren. Warren has far more receptions (18 vs. 4 for Harris), so getting a full point for each reception is really benefitting Warren and part of the reason why he’s the pick over Harris here.
The fact that Warren was chosen over 100 picks after Harris in 2023 Dynasty Owner startup drafts (32.7 ADP for Harris vs. 151.8 ADP for Warren) and was an undrafted free agent compared to being a first round draft pick are two additional reasons for having Warren in this spot. In addition, Pittsburgh could run the ball a significant amount against the Baltimore Ravens with Kenny Pickett ($3,516,976) being questionable due to an injury suffered in Week 4 and his backup Mitchell Trubisky ($7,142,500) being generally a less than skilled QB.
Josh Downs (WR – IND): I struggled with choosing a WR for this spot and went with Josh Downs ($1,380,115) over a list of other contenders who have scored a similar number of Dynasty Owner fantasy points so far this season, including Rashee Rice ($1,623,802), Jahan Dotson ($3,762,090) and Tyler Boyd ($10,750,000). Downs has more targets than both Rice and Dotson and is tied with Boyd, who might get more targets this week with Tee Higgins ($2,171,696) questionable. However, with Boyd not guaranteed to get more targets because it’s Thursday and Higgins has three more days to get healthy enough to practice and play, I’m going to go with Downs and his anticipated volume.
Downs has 27 targets through four weeks, but was only targeted three times in Week 4 against the Rams. The Titans’ rush defense is so good that opposing QBs have to throw more and WRs have been targeted 97 times in four games against Tennessee this season with 71 receptions for 825 receiving yards and 4 TDs. Not all of those targets are going to Downs with Michael Pittman ($2,153,213) and Alec Pierce ($1,650,336) in the Colts’ lineup. Pittman is WR16 so he’s not eligible here and Pierce is WR88 with only 18.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points on 14 targets. That’s barely over half as many as Downs, so I’ll pick Downs over Pierce as the Colts’ WR2 this week.
Being the Colts’ WR2 this week should be good enough for Downs to score the Dynasty Owner fantasy points needed to be a top 24 WR for the week. Especially with four teams on bye and at least half a dozen Starting lineup options not available to Dynasty Owners this week. Take a chance on Josh Downs as a replacement if you have one of those WRs from the Browns, Buccaneers, Chargers, or Seahawks usually in a Starting WR spot on your Dynasty Owner team.
Tyler Conklin (TE – NYJ): In contrast to last week in which I called for Dynasty Owners to Bench a top Jets WR (we’ll get to how that recommendation worked out very soon), this week I’m taking the opposite position and saying Tyler Conklin ($6,750,000) needs to get into your Starting lineup. He’s been trending upward since Week 1 against Buffalo and has been targeted at least five times in each of the past three games with performances of 10.0 and 9.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Weeks 2 and 4 respectively.
Conklin has finished as TE16 in both 2021 and 2022 and is currently TE17, so he’s basically playing like he has in the past. He wasn’t reliant on Aaron Rodgers ($37,500,000) for his value and actually may be more valuable for his Dynasty Owners with Zach Wilson ($8,787,670) at QB for the Jets. This isn’t really based on last year as Conklin and Wilson only connected for 57.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in nine games for an average of 6.4 points per game. That average is severely inflated by Conklin’s 2 TD performance against New England in Week 8 when he scored 25.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Otherwise, Conklin had eight games with less than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and no TDs with Wilson at QB.
Instead, it’s based on his performance this year and the poor performances by Denver’s defense against opposing TEs. Last week, they allowed Bears TE Cole Kmet to score 27.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (7 receptions, 85 receiving yards, 1 rushing yard, 2 TDs). In Week 2, they allowed the Commanders’ TE trio to score 21.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (7 receptions, 89 receiving yards, 1 TD). They were good against the Raiders’ TEs who have done almost nothing this season (combined 12.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) and in Week 3 against the Dolphins who basically had everybody, but TE Durham Smythe ($3,500,000), run roughshod over them.
With a bunch of the TEs in the same range on bye, Conklin is just outside of the top 12 TEs and likely paired with one (or more) of those similar TEs. If that’s the case, then take Conklin off your Dynasty Owner Bench and get him into your Starting lineup this week.
These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week
Now it’s the time to look at how each of my Bench recommendations from Week 4 worked out (Good, Bad or Just Ok).
QB: Lamar Jackson ($52,000,000) – 32.0 (Bad recommendation)
RB: Joe Mixon ($5,750,000) – 8.6 (Good recommendation)
WR: Garrett Wilson ($5,138,502) – 15.0 (Bad recommendation)
TE: Hunter Henry ($12,500,000) – 9.1 (Just Ok recommendation)
Let’s start with the recommendation that was easiest to rate. Lamar Jackson had 32.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (186 passing yards, 27 rushing yards, 4 TDs, 2 fumbles – 1 lost). Clearly Jackson was a starting QB last week, so the recommendation was Bad. The rest were close calls as the players got pretty close to their projections, even as I was down on them for the week.
There was one of each type of recommendation. Joe Mixon ended up outside of the top 24 RBs, but only by less than 1.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Still with an ADP of 61.2 and being drafted as a Dynasty Owner team’s RB2 on average, he should be getting double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points, so the recommendation to Bench Mixon was Good. Especially with 15 touches for the day. Hunter Henry is continuing his slide down the season-long and weekly TE rankings after starting off as TE1 in Week 1 and continuing as TE2 in Week 2. He’s down to overall TE6 after 9.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (4 receptions for 51 receiving yards) in Week 4. It was good enough to be TE18 and only 1.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points away from a starting lineup-worthy performance. That’s Just Ok.
Finally, it’s time to declare that while Garrett Wilson isn’t going to be worth his ADP of 9.1 in 2023 Dynasty Owner startup drafts, he’s also not someone who should be sitting on your bench either. He was a very low-end WR2 this week and is ranked as WR25 for the season. Wilson will likely score between 9.0 and 17.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game, as he has done every week so far in 2023 and be worth the WR2 or FLEX spot in your starting lineup. This past week, he got 15.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (9 receptions for 60 receiving yards) on 14 targets and did basically what he was projected to do. I had him doing worse, so that recommendation was Bad. I’m declaring that I’m not putting Garrett Wilson here again this year. Instead of Wilson, let’s find out who I am putting as my bench recommendations for Week 5.
Russell Wilson (QB – DEN): It’s a different Wilson! If before the start of the 2022 NFL season you told anyone that this pick would be controversial because Russell Wilson shouldn’t be a Dynasty Owner Starting QB, then you were ahead of your time. While Wilson is rostered in only 9.2% of Dynasty Owner leagues right now, he is technically QB6 for the 2023 season. To those Dynasty Owners with Russell on their roster, I applaud you for sticking with him, but urge you to get out from under that contract as soon as things go south for him. An Amnesty Provision is only $5 million Dynasty Dollars if you don’t have one already.
My expectation is that the decline starts this week with the Broncos hosting the New York Jets. The Jets defense is legit and held Patrick Mahomes to only 14.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (203 passing yards, 51 rushing yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 1 fumble) in Week 4. They also held Josh Allen ($43,005,667) to just 8.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 1. Only Dak Prescott ($40,000,000) has thrown for over 250 yards against their defense and scored more than 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
While Wilson has been good so far this season, he hasn’t played a defense as good as the Jets and this will be the week that he shows himself to be no more than a Bench QB for your Dynasty Owner team. It’s difficult to put a player who takes up over 30% of your Dynasty Owner salary cap on the Bench, but that’s exactly what I’m saying to do. Actually, I’m telling you to drop him entirely and save over $48.5 million in salary, but having him on your Bench is the next best option if you want to keep him on your roster.
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR): Dynasty Owners with Kyren Williams ($992,601) should be grateful for what he’s done for them so far this season. He’s the RB4 for the Dynasty Owner season with 88.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points scored when he was projected to be the backup to Cam Akers ($1,543,259) at the start of the season. Akers has been traded to Minnesota and there’s really nobody pushing Williams for the starting job with the Rams right now.
Not bad for a player who you likely got with a draft pick in the 15th round or later based on his ADP of 188.3 in 2022 and 190.7 this year. Williams played in 10 games for the Rams last year, but only had 30.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points despite 44 touches (35 rushing attempts and 9 receptions).
The Rams run into the Eagles defense this week and are likely going to have to attack their depleted secondary, not run the ball 20-25 times, to have a chance to win. Williams has been great for his Dynasty Owners, but a closer look shows that volume has been his greatest ally this season. He has rushed the ball 64 times so far and is averaging a mere 3.8 yards per carry. Opposing RBs have also run the ball 64 times against the Eagles defense, but for just 185 yards, which is 2.9 yards per carry.
Williams is likely going to need a TD to be worth having in your Starting lineup and so far, he has six of them on the season so it’s definitely not outside the realm of possibility. However, I think it’s more likely that he doesn’t get as many carries as usual, is held below his yards per carry average for the season and doesn’t get a TD. That adds up to a player who should be on your Dynasty Owner Bench and not in your Starting lineup.
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN): If I think Russell Wilson is going to have problems with the Jets defense, then doubling down on that and picking his leading receiver Courtland Sutton ($15,200,000) makes a lot of sense. Sutton is WR26 on the season but with three WRs ahead of him on bye, he sneaks into the top 24 WRs and is likely the WR2 or FLEX choice for many of his Dynasty Owners this week.
Even though Sutton has scored double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points in all four games so far this season, his projections have him falling short of that mark with 8.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. I’m going to agree with the projections and actually go a step further and predict that he’ll score fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points than that against Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, the Jets’ outside starting cornerbacks. Fewer than 8.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points is a bench WR, so that’s where his Dynasty Owners should be putting Courtland Sutton this week.
Some will argue that both Stefon Diggs ($24,000,000) and CeeDee Lamb ($3,502,503) were able to produce great games against the Jets with 26.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (Diggs) and 24.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (Lamb). My counterpoint is that Courtland Sutton isn’t Diggs or Lamb, but more of the caliber of the plethora of lesser WRs that populate the Patriots and Chiefs rosters and have been held in check by the Jets.
Cole Kmet (TE – CHI): Last year, Cole Kmet ($1,894,445) had back-to-back 2 TD/over 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performances, so I’m taking a risk by listing him here the week following his 27.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance (7 receptions, 85 receiving yards, 1 rushing yard, 2 TDs). However, nobody has allowed fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points to TEs this season, with just 21.3 (13 receptions for 83 receiving yards) than the Commanders. The best game for a TE against them through four weeks is the 8.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance (6 receptions for 21 receiving yards) by Arizona TE Zach Ertz ($10,550,000) in Week 1. They have played a couple of projected top 12 TEs in Dalton Kincaid ($3,356,756) and Dallas Goedert ($14,250,000) in addition to Ertz so while they haven’t faced the best TEs, it hasn’t been a collection of scrubs either or four bad QBs under center.
The projections for Kmet this week say he’ll get 7.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, and I have him coming up a little short of that on what is projected to be the best Thursday Night Football game of the season. That’s sarcasm. Nobody is expecting much from the Commanders and Bears game and it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon gave Al Michaels the night off because of the terrible matchup for “announcer load management”. That way, he can rest up for October Prime Day when he has to pull a double shift in one of the company’s warehouses. Regardless of what happens with Al, Dynasty Owners should get Kmet on their Bench in advance of Thursday night.
Free Agent Auction Targets Update
Now it’s time to recap the players recommended in Jay’s weekly Free Agent Auction targets article and see how much their Dynasty Owner roster percentage has increased since the start of Week 5. Jay gave us his usual five players this week and met expectations with the number of choices. Not sure yet about the quality of them. That will be determined soon.
There have been two Free Agent Auction runs already this week – Wednesday at 5 AM (Eastern) and Thursday at 5 AM (Eastern), so some Dynasty Owners have had two chances to go pick up these guys in the Free Agent Auction. Hope you bid enough if you wanted to get them!
| Player | Position | Team | Salary | Week 4 Roster % | Current Roster % | Change |
| Mitchell Trubisky | QB | PIT | $7,142,500 | 11.11% | 19.54% | 8.43% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | DEN | $903,333 | 74.33% | 92.34% | 18.01% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | TEN | $1,260,000 | 63.60% | 69.73% | 6.13% |
| Deven Thompkins | WR | TB | $787,500 | 0.38% | 4.98% | 4.60% |
| Ronnie Rivers | RB | LAR | $750,000 | 14.56% | 40.23% | 25.67% |
Similar to last week, only two of the players featured had a significant number of Dynasty Owners grabbing them off the Free Agent Auction. Not surprisingly, it was both of the RBs listed, as the Free Agent Auction well is running dry of RBs in general so anybody with a pulse and chance to have a couple of carries in a given week is heavily rostered at this point. Even guys who aren’t playing much (if at all) who are inexpensive are still rostered in too many leagues (over 80%) to get mentioned by Jay.
With a Week 5 bye looming, the low roster percentage increase for Deven Thompkins isn’t surprising. If Mike Evans ($16,500,000) has more than the “tweaked hamstring” being reported, Thompkins’ roster percentage should jump up the day after that news breaks. Thompkins is still available in just over 95% of Dynasty Owner leagues right now, so nearly everyone still has a chance to go get him and plenty of other players in the Free Agent Auction. Happy bidding and hope everyone got who they wanted, even guys not on Jay’s list, in the Free Agent Auction.
Match-Up of the Week and Chase for the Ring Leaderboard
Are you missing the Dynasty Owner Match-Up of the Week and Chase for the Ring standings that used to appear here? Then head over and follow me on Twitter/X (@SteveVT33) to see what happened in Week 4 when a pair of 0-3 teams (Bull Dawgs and Coach Prime) had a match-up that would ensure at least one of them got a victory. Both teams ended up not meeting their weekly projections, but one team still got the win.
The updated Chase for the Ring Leaderboard will also be posted on Twitter/X as well even though anyone can access it at https://app.dynastyowner.com/chase-for-the-ring. If you recall the top two teams from last week were separated by only 0.1 points. However, one team exceeded their expectations and weekly projections while the other one fell far short of theirs. Both are still on the live leaderboard, and everyone can check out where both teams currently stand. Since the Chase for the Ring leaderboard is now live, your team name could pop up in the top 100 at any time.
Slightly longer versions of the Match-up of the Week and the Chase for the Ring Leaderboard will also appear on the Dynasty Owner thread on Reddit, as well as Facebook and Instagram on occasion. Plus, the Chase for the Ring leaderboard Top 10 will definitely appear in a weekly newsletter sent out on Fridays by Dynasty Owner.
Conclusion
How is your Dynasty Owner team, or Dynasty Owner teams (if you have more than one), doing so far this season? Exceeding, meeting, or falling short of projections and your expectations? If you had a team with Chase for the Ring aspirations, then hopefully they are exceeding those expectations as there can only be one winner of the Ring and your team needs to exceed those projections and expectations all season-long in order to have a chance to win.
We have the first set of NFL bye weeks coming up in Week 5 with Cleveland, the Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle and Tampa Bay all taking a rest. If you have any of the top players on those teams, don’t forget to get them out of your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup and off the Bench too if you have players on your Practice Squad who can fill in and at least provide a minimal amount of Dynasty Owner fantasy points. There are three consecutive weeks with teams on bye until everyone returns to play in Week 8.
Why are there no teams on bye in Week 8? That’s a great question that I have no idea on the answer. Feel free to reach out to me or Dynasty Owner on Twitter/X, or post on Facebook, Instagram or Reddit and let your fellow Dynasty Owners know the answer. You can also comment in all of those places when this article is published and let everyone know if you like, or dislike, my weekly recommendations, think you can do better and have players that you think will exceed or fall short of expectations this week. You can even agree, like the article and add your comments on any of those social media platforms. We appreciate the feedback from our fellow Dynasty Owners and I’m just happy that you took time to read my content and maybe even comment on it.
The Week 5 Free Agent Auction targets article was published on Tuesday and Jay Pounds will be back every Tuesday during the 2023 season with a list of at least five widely available players in Dynasty Owner to help everyone with their Free Agent Auction bids for the first auction run of the week on Wednesday at 5 AM (Eastern). We also have the weekly Livestream with me and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer. We went live on Thursday afternoon at 4:00 PM (Eastern) last week with a special guest and will be back at the same time this week and likely for the rest of the 2023 season. Hopefully you can watch live or watched live if you are reading this after it aired. If you missed this week’s episode or want to see previous ones, then go watch on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel.
Thanks for reading and have a great day!
Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner
Follow us on Twitter/X: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner