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By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)
When drafting players in any dynasty start-up league, checking out past performance from the previous season or seasons is one important way to gauge future success. Lamar Jackson was the top scorer in Dynasty Owner in 2019 and that combined with his age and salary led him to have the lowest ADP of any player in 2020 Dynasty Owner drafts. Following Jackson in Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2019 was Christian McCaffrey, who ended up having the second lowest ADP in 2020 Dynasty Owner drafts.
It’s not always that way. Sometimes a player will improve over the course of the season and improve his draft stock the following year. Kenyan Drake was the Value Player of the Week for both weeks of the 2019 Dynasty Owner playoffs. This likely catapulted his draft position even higher than it would have been without those games. It’s not an exact science as other factors, such as being traded from Miami to Arizona and the injury to and subsequent trade of David Johnson also likely contributed to Drake’s improved draft position in 2020. However, his strong push at the end of 2019 likely helped him significantly.
Based on their performance in the second half of the 2020 NFL season, are there any players that Dynasty Owners should be targeting higher in 2021 start-up drafts than they would be based on their season-long performance? Will there be a 2021 version of Kenyan Drake? Which player who improved over the course of the 2020 season will end up being drafted earlier than another player with similar season-long stats?
All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.
Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.
For the purposes of this article, all statistics cited are from the full 2020 NFL regular season. First half statistics are based on the first eight games played by the player’s team in 2020 and second half statistics are based on the final eight games. For example, Weeks 1-9 would constitute the first half for a player whose team had a bye in Weeks 4-8, while Weeks 1-8 are considered the first half if the player’s team had a bye in Weeks 9-13.
Guys Who Broke Out at the End of 2019
Kenyan Drake had himself quite the performance at the end of the 2019 NFL season. He had 41.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 15 and followed that up with 35.4 points in Week 16 before cooling off slightly in Week 17 and scoring “only” 17.3 points. His season-long scoring average was a respectable 15.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game, which more than doubled to 31.4 points per game in the final three weeks. His performance at the end of the season was likely one of several reasons he ended up with an ADP of 30.4 during 2020 Dynasty Owner drafts.
For other players, it’s a bit more clear that the hype they gathered with their performance at the end of the 2019 season helped make them more desirable to Dynasty Owners who were drafting for the 2020 season. A good example of this can be found by looking at a trio of young, low-paid WRs who had similar 2019 performances, but different 2020 draft outcomes.
| 2019 Points per Game Average | ||||||
| Name | Team | Salary | ADP | Full Season | First Half | Second Half |
| Steven Sims | WAS | $590,000 | 187.6 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 12.0 |
| Russell Gage | ATL | $654,049 | 192.8 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 |
| Zach Pascal | IND | $660,000 | 241.4 | 10.1 | 13.8 | 7.4 |
Steven Sims and Russell Gage both had lower ADPs than Zach Pascal despite scoring fewer points per game over the course of the entire season. Sims’s slightly lower salary of $590,000 combined with his higher average Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game of 8.0 might be the reason for his slight edge over Russell Gage ($654,049 salary and 7.0 average points per game), but based on 2020 performance, neither one should be getting drafted around 50 draft slots ahead of Zach Pascal. Dynasty Owners needed to grab Sims or Gage in the 15th or 16th rounds to secure their services for the 2020 season, but could wait until the 20th round to take Pascal. The heightened performances by Sims (20.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points average in the final three weeks) and Gage (10.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the final nine games after the Falcons traded away Mohamed Sanu) at the end of the season probably caused fantasy analysts and Dynasty Owners alike to move both of them up their draft boards.
Second Half Stars in 2020
It’s too early to predict 2021 draft order since the 2020 season just ended and few off-season moves have been made. However, we can examine some players who could be the 2021 versions of Sims and Gage. The following five players, one per position (QB, RB, WR, TE and yes, even kicker), likely improved their Dynasty Owner draft stock for 2021 by improving their play in the second half of the 2020 season. As a result, Dynasty Owners will need to draft them earlier in 2021 than they did in 2020 (or in one case, draft them, period).
Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN): His $33 million contract is probably still far too high for most Dynasty Owners. However, he was better in 2020 than 2019 and it all came in the second half of the season. Cousins averaged 30.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game (242.4 points in 8 games) in the second half of the 2020 season. He was consistently good as well with only one game of under 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the second half. This is compared with his first half average of 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game (160.0 points in 8 games), in which he failed to reach 20.0 points in half of the games.
First half Kirk Cousins was similar to 2019 Kirk Cousins in terms of fantasy production (20.0 points per game in 2020 vs. 21.4 points per game in 2019). After his performance in 2019 that ranked him as the #15 QB in Dynasty Owner, it wasn’t a surprise that he and his $33 million salary went undrafted in 2020 Dynasty Owner drafts. However, a few Dynasty Owners picked him up near the end of the season as his play improved and now he’s owned in 3% of leagues.
For the entire season, Cousins was the #10 QB in terms of Dynasty Owner fantasy points (406.3), but #5 in terms of salary. His salary will stay the same in 2021, but a few other QBs (Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson plus likely Dak Prescott) will make more money than him. This combined with his improved second half means that more Cousins will be owned by more Dynasty Owners in 2021 than he is now.
There is also speculation that Cousins may be on the move to San Francisco or elsewhere, which could improve his fantasy outlook even more. That might help increase the number of Dynasty Owners who draft Cousins in 2021. Even if he stays in Minnesota, his second half improvement gives hope that some people will draft him in Dynasty Owner in 2021.
David Montgomery (RB – CHI): After being drafted in the late fourth or early fifth round on average (ADP 44.2) in 2020 Dynasty Owner drafts, David Montgomery is poised to be drafted even higher in 2021 based on his improved play in the second half of the 2020 season. Montgomery was the #20 RB taken, on average, after a 2019 season in which he averaged 10.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (172.4 points in 16 games). He finished the 2020 Dynasty Owner regular season a little better than his draft ranking as the #10 overall RB in total points (163.8) and #14 in points per game (14.9). However, he really turned it on in the Dynasty Owner playoffs with 77.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (25.9 points per game).
For the entire second half of the NFL 2020 season, Montgomery averaged 23.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game, an increase from his 13.2 points per game average in the first half. He finished with six consecutive games of over 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points after returning from injury to help lead the Bears into the NFL playoffs.
Of course, the Bears were without the services of RB Tarik Cohen for the most of the 2020 season and the entire second half. Some people might say Montgomery is unlikely to duplicate his success at the end of the 2020 purely due to Cohen’s presence on the roster in 2021. At the same time, Cohen might be included in a trade with the Philadelphia Eagles for Carson Wentz. If that happens, Montgomery may be in a similar situation in 2021 as he was for most of 2020.
Regardless of Cohen’s status, with just one year remaining on his rookie deal that pays him only slightly over $1 million, Montgomery is one of the few top RBs making that little in salary. Only one RB in 2020 (James Robinson) who isn’t getting a big raise in 2021 had a better cost per point than the $3,720 put up by Montgomery. He also raised his yards per carry from 3.7 in 2019 to 4.3 for all of 2020 and 4.8 in the second half. All of this points to Montgomery being drafted higher in 2021 than 2020.
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN): Jefferson was the top scoring rookie WR by more than 50.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points over his nearest competitor (273.2 points for Jefferson versus 221.4 for CeeDee Lamb). That’s better than anticipated in 2020 as he was the 4th rookie WR off of Dynasty Owner draft boards, behind Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb and Jalen Reagor. Jefferson finished ahead of all of them and was the #7 ranked WR.
Jefferson had a slow start to the season and scored only 12.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in his first two games combined. He exploded in Week 3 with 30.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and followed that up with 39.6 points in Week 6. After the Vikings’ Week 7 bye, it was back down to scoring in the single digits with two performances of under 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (5.6 points in Week 8 and 9.4 points in Week 9). For the first half, he averaged 14.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game, but was wildly inconsistent as in five out of his eight games, he failed to score in double digits.
That changed in the second half as his points per game average increased to 19.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game (an increase of 5.0 points per game). Not only that, but he was more consistent on a weekly basis. He reached double digits in seven of the eight games in the second half of the season and just missed it in the eighth game with 9.9 points.
After being drafted in the sixth or seventh round, on average, in 2020 Dynasty Owner drafts, Jefferson will go much higher in 2021. He’ll still be on his rookie contract of $3.28 million and should slot just behind two WRs (D.K. Metcalf and Calvin Ridley) in 2021 drafts since both of them make even less in salary and had more Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2020.
Logan Thomas (TE – WAS): After starting off the 2020 Dynasty Owner undrafted, Thomas put together 10 games with double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points to finish as the #4 TE for the entire season. Only Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and T.J. Hockenson had more Dynasty Owner fantasy points over the entire NFL season. He finished the Dynasty Owner regular season as the #7 TE (117.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, 9.8 points per game), but moved up with 59.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Weeks 14-17 of the NFL season (14.9 points per game).
Over the entire second half of the season, Thomas averaged 13.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game and scored double-digit points in seven out of eight games, including the final six games of the NFL regular season. That was an increase of 5.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game from his first half average of 8.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game.
At his 2021 salary of just slightly over $3 million, he’s the 25th highest paid TE in the NFL right now, but cheaper than all three TEs who finished ahead of him in Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2020. He’s more expensive than another TE who played better at the end of the season in Irv Smith Jr., but he’s also likely to get you more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than Smith in 2021 as well. With better QB play for the Football Team in 2021, Thomas should once again be solid producer for your Dynasty Owner team, but someone who may need to be drafted earlier than warranted after how he finished the 2020 season.
Tyler Bass (K – BUF): Nobody attempted more kicks during the 2020 NFL season than Buffalo rookie kicker Tyler Bass who had 93 attempts (34 FG attempts and 59 PAT attempts). With 53 of those attempts coming in the second half of the season, it’s no surprise that he got better as the season moved along.
Bass started off very slow and after six games had only scored 25 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (4.2 points per game). By that point, he had missed 2 FGs of 39 yards or less plus a 50+ yarder, along with a PAT. However, things changed in Week 7 against the Jets as he was called upon to kick eight FGs and made six of them (29, 37, 40, 46, 48 and 53 yard FGs) to score 16.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Even with that game, he only finished the first half as the #26 kicker with a total of just 46.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (5.8 points per game).
In the second half, Bass was on fire, making 15 out of 16 FG attempts and 36 out of 37 PAT attempts. That was good for a total of 78.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (9.8 points per game). He had more Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the second half scoring than two kickers making over $3 million per year in salary (Dan Bailey and Jake Elliott) scored in the entire season.
As the kicker for the powerful Buffalo offense and a very Dynasty Owner salary cap friendly price tag of just $704,804 through the 2023 season, Bass is likely to be one of the first kickers off the board in your 2021 Dynasty Owner draft and maybe even the first one. Let the other Dynasty Owners in your league scoff at drafting a kicker early and grab Bass before anyone else. Then sit back and watch the rest of your league scramble in the last few rounds for kickers who make a lot more and will score a lot fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
Conclusion
These five players were not the only players to improve their 2021 draft stock with their performances at the end of the 2020 NFL season. Surely some of my fellow Dynasty Owners can think of others who stepped up their game at the end of 2020, but who are missing from this list.
Let’s keep the discussion going on Twitter and YouTube. Do you agree with that these players are likely to be drafted earlier than their full season scoring would indicate based on their end of the season performances? Send me a tweet (@SteveVT33) or post in the comments section for the video on YouTube and tell your fellow Dynasty Owners who you think increased their draft Dynasty Owner draft position based on their 2020 second half performance.
My articles and videos on getting you ready for your 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up league team will be out on Fridays throughout the off-season. Keep an eye out for new articles and videos from the rest of our team of Dynasty Owners writers as well. On Mondays, Nate Christian (@NateNFL) will break down rookies in his Prospect Preview. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) is back for another year and will do a deep dive into contracts on Wednesdays. Jay Pounds (@JayPoundsNFL) has his articles and videos on how to rebuild your Dynasty Owner roster on Thursdays. Read all of their articles, watch and like all of their videos on YouTube (and all of the other available formats, such as Spotify) and follow the four of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter.
Thanks for reading! Hope everyone enjoyed the Super Bowl and is excited to get started on preparing for the 2021 Dynasty Owner season.
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