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| Position: RB | Weight: 202 |
| College: North Carolina | Age: 21 |
| Height: 5′ 8″ | 247 Rating: 3 Stars (0.8772) |
By: Nate Christian (@NateNFL)
The Rundown:
An offseason draft riser, Michael Carter was part of a potent college offense at North Carolina and had another top talent sharing the backfield. Javonte Williams may be the current darling in the eyes of the media but Carter is running fast under the radar and rising up draftniks’ Big Boards. Despite his size, he’s an all-around back who has the capabilities to produce at the next level, but how will NFL teams project his next level outlook?
College Production:
Coming into North Carolina as a 3-star freshman, Carter took on a significant role right away. In his first season he ran for 558 yards and scored 8 touchdowns on the ground. The next year he saw less volume but averaged 7.1 yards per carry and caught 25 passes. Carter really set the scene his Junior year with 1,000+ yards on the ground and 20+ receptions. All culminating with his 2020 Senior season, where he finished with 1,245 rushing yards (8 ypc), 11 total touchdowns, and 25 receptions for 267 yards (10.7 YpR). These efficient numbers are only downplayed because of Javonte Williams’ total touchdown count of 22, which was more a consequence of volume than talent. Williams and Carter are neck in neck in my personal rankings, but they do bring vastly different play styles to their future NFL teams.
Strengths:
- Natural Receiver
- One of the best receivers out of the backfield in the draft class, his transition to after the catch is so natural and smooth that his receptions in the flat are almost handoffs. His routes are crisp and he’s able to make good decisions on option routes to get open and get first downs. He also has enough athleticism to get down the field on wheel routes and challenge linebackers in coverage.
- Patient Runner
- I love a running back who waits for the play to come to them, it’s a vital trait to be an elite running back in the NFL. The game moves fast, but if you don’t let your blocks develop then it’s hard to find a running lane. Carter keeps his feet moving behind the line of scrimmage but doesn’t dive head first into the pile of defenders in front of him. He uses his eyes to manipulate linebackers and uses his hands to work off of his offensive lineman. Most importantly, once that gap opens up he has the burst to take off and get chunk yardage.
- Weebles Wobble
- “But they don’t fall down.” Carter’s ability to work through contact is very impressive, and a lot of it has to do with his low center of gravity and great pad level. Arm tackles often don’t bring him down and he bounces off most players who simply just throw their bodies around. He also uses his hands well to make first contact with a defender and keep them at bay while he gains some more yards.
Weaknesses:
- Short but Stout
- I don’t think there are many weaknesses to Carter’s game outside of his height. While he is 5’ 8”, he’s also over 200 pounds and has plenty of muscle. We’ve seen plenty of players his height fail to create significant numbers at the NFL level, but with his size he’s much more Maurice Jones-Drew than, say, Dri Archer. At the end of the day I’m not worried about his size, because he’s a playmaker and shows too much talent on tape to downgrade him based on an inch.
Things to Watch:
Every article I talk about how saddened I am that we don’t have an NFL Combine this year, and it continues to run true with me, but the NFL is doing their best to keep testing consistent across the board. Carter won’t blow up his pro day, and most likely Williams will get most of the attention following the event (scheduled for Monday, March 29th). But don’t worry, Carter had an incredible week at the Senior Bowl and is talked about highly among most NFL scouts and analysts.
Projected Round/Contract:
While Carter might have been a Day 3 pick coming into the 2020 season, he’s nearly a lock for Day 2 now and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sneak into the end of the 2nd round come draft day. He’s been an offseason riser as his tape gets played more and more along with Williams’. He might never be talked about as one of the top guys in the class but he’s at the top of the second tier. If we conservatively mock him at the start of the 3rd round, his contract would likely look similar to Ke’Shawn Vaughn’s ($1,080,909) deal of 4-years for about $4.75 million. This is great value for a running back who has the potential to produce RB2 numbers in PPR leagues for years to come. Will the team that drafts him give him that opportunity?
Team Fits:
Landing spot will be huge for Carter and his value to your dynasty team, but even if he’s not in a spot to compete for touches day 1, I still love his potential to make a difference. I believe that he will have high enough draft capital to throw his hat in the ring for meaningful touches. A team might even believe enough in Carter to draft him with a clear path to the lead role, a discount on picking a running back in the first two rounds.
One team that would fit Carter’s skillset very well is the reigning champions, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A team that is dying for a high upside receiving back, Carter would be a great compliment to Ronald Jones ($2,250,154) right away. Carter also has the upside as a three down back to eventually replace Jones if the team lets him go in free agency next offseason. Having Carter in a limited role his rookie year, and learning from Tom Brady ($28,375,000), could be great for development as an NFL running back. If the Buccaneers were to select Carter with the last pick in the 2nd round, I would be very excited about his fantasy outlook.
Now I think this could be an “under-the-radar” landing spot for Carter, but at pick 71 the Denver Broncos could be an exciting spot. Melvin Gordon ($8,968,750) is there for one more year (though also facing a DUI charge) , Phillip Lindsay is a free agent, and the team’s offense is a quarterback away. Michael Carter once again would be able to slot in year 1 as a complimentary role player and could see a nice sized workload as the RB2 in that offense. Going into 2022, Carter would have the chance to take over the lead role for himself and possibly on a team that is hitting its stride on offense. We saw the Broncos already do well with one smaller running back, I believe Carter would be a good fit for this offense and would be of great value if he landed here.
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