Real Rookie Draft Analysis

By Steven Van Tassell

It’s been several days since rookie drafts started. Some drafts are in the middle, some are at the end, while others are still in the first round. I’m in one league that’s still in the first round (pick 1.11) and I saw someone else the other day say that their draft was still on the 1.03 pick. Hopefully, that one has picked up the pace, but it just goes to show that some leagues are taking the “slow draft” part at face value.

And we have those league in which the word “slow” wasn’t part of the equation as they are already finished. For a few of those leagues, we have the complete drafts available to review. Thanks to Rotting Husk of Al Davis (League #27444), Hershey’s Squirts (League #28031), Up Country Degens (Leagues #28297 and #35395), @buckdr3 (League #31928) and War Eagles (League #34636) for letting me know that their leagues were finished.

Since we only have six completed drafts, it’s not a great idea to draw big conclusions from just these data, but it’s still fun to look at them and see trends, surprises and interesting picks. As I’ve written dozens of times before, no two drafts are alike and because it’s Dynasty Owner, the salary cap is going to play a role in when someone gets drafted in every league. Because of salary cap restrictions, the “best” players might not be the first players drafted, or then again, they might be. The best part is that we finally know the answer to this question with “real” rookie draft ADP from a few completed drafts and aren’t just speculating anymore.

All ADP and draft pick information listed are based on the results of the six drafts (League #27444, League #28031, League #28297, League #31928, League #34636 and League #35395) completed by the morning of June 8th. Salary information listed are based on the salaries listed on www.spotrac.com and posted on the Dynasty Owner platform.

Stats from Six Complete Drafts

Let’s get started with some numbers. With just six completed drafts to analyze, it’s easy to say that no two drafts are the same, but just how different is surprising when you look at some stats about these drafts.

  • Number of #1 picks: 3 (Najee Harris – 3, Trevor Lawrence – 2 and Kyle Pitts – 1)
  • Number of #37 picks: 6 (D’Wayne Eskridge, Kylin Hill, Hunter Long, Davis Mills, Elijah Mitchell and Tylan Wallace)
  • Number of players drafted: 50
  • Number of players drafted in all four drafts: 28
  • Number of players drafted in only one draft: 9
  • Lowest ADP of player taken in all four drafts: 1.5 – Najee Harris (RB – PIT)
  • Highest ADP of player taken in all four drafts: 31.2 – Evan McPherson (K – CIN)
  • Most number of draft picks for a team: 7 (Country Roads Take Mahomes – League #31928)
  • Number of teams with zero draft picks: 4 (Teflon Hearts – League #27444, bobs – League #28031, Thee Camel Toe Jockey – League #31928 and TheJerk – League #35395)
  • Number of teams spending over $20 million in draft: 3 (Country Roads Take Mahomes – League #31928, Asian Zing – League #34636 and Dynasty Jock – Dave – League #31928)
  • Average team salary spending: $8,837,555
  • Median team salary spending: $7,528,273

Guaranteed First Rounders

With 13 first round picks in six drafts, a total of 78 players in theory could have been drafted in the first round. In reality, it was just over one-fifth of that number as only 17 players were taken with a first round pick. Out of those 17 players, 11 were taken in the first round in all five drafts. All 11 of these players were also in the First Round of the rookie draft ADP article that I did at the end of last week (https://dynastyowner.com/2021/06/rookie-draft-average-draft-position-adp/) in a very similar order.  In fact, the top five players here are the same ones from last week. Just goes to show that the mock rookie draft ADP and start-up draft ADP might indeed be good proxies for the first round of the real rookie drafts.

PlayerPositionTeamSalaryADPHigh PickLow Pick
Najee HarrisRBPIT$3,261,8621.512
Trevor LawrenceQBJAC$9,198,3722.213
Kyle PittsTEATL$8,227,6234.016
Ja’Marr ChaseWRCIN$7,547,4104.536
Travis EtienneRBJAC$3,224,5265.028
Trey LanceQBSF$8,526,3196.548
Justin FieldsQBCHI$4,717,9887.3313
Javonte WilliamsRBDEN$2,216,4387.559
DeVonta SmithWRPHI$5,035,3489.3613
Zach WilsonQBNYJ$8,787,67010.0911
Trey SermonRBSF$1,218,23310.5613

The few random things that stand out to me about these guaranteed first round picks are:

  • Justin Fields almost didn’t make this list. He had the largest fluctuation of the group, going as high as #3 (Garlic Bread Butt Shove – League #27444) and as low as #13 (War Eagles – League #34636). Not sure if getting Fields with his bonus 1.13 pick was why War Eagles tweeted that he was “feeling good!” about his draft, but that’s not a bad guess.
  • Travis Etienne was taken with the #2 pick in two drafts (WANNABEES – League #31928 and Asian Zing – League #34636), but didn’t go higher than the #4 pick in any of the other three leagues. Overall, his ADP landed almost exactly where it was in the mock drafts, but still a fair divergence of opinion on him.
  • The lack of fluctuation in the draft slot for Ja’Marr Chase (high of #3, low of #6) and Zach Wilson (high of #9, low of #11). Until the League #35395 draft was completed, Chase hadn’t even been drafted third so his fluctuation was even less. If your league hasn’t gotten too far in the draft, it appears that you know where you need to be drafting to get those guys.

Possible First Round Picks

The other six players who were taken at least once in the six completed rookie drafts range from the #6 overall NFL draft pick (Jaylen Waddle) to the second pick of the fourth round (Michael Carter).

PlayerPositionTeamSalaryADPHigh PickLow Pick
Jaylen WaddleWRMIA$6,771,49812.71015
Mac JonesQBNE$3,896,58812.71014
Michael CarterRBNYJ$1,071,84213.51116
Terrace MarshallWRCAR$1,432,37215.21218
Rashod BatemanWRBAL$3,149,85317.21024
Rondale MooreWRARI$1,731,06017.51222

The clear surprise is Jaylen Waddle’s appearance on this list. He was only drafted in the first round in half of these rookie drafts (3 out of 6), and was drafted not close to his NFL draft stock as he was never taken before the #10 pick. His ADP from the real drafts is 12.7, a couple of spots lower than his rookie mock draft ADP of 10.3.

We have a new Fan Club President! It’s The Northerners from League #27444 who took Rondale Moore with the #12 pick. He didn’t go before the #16 pick in any of the other five drafts. When I saw the draft order for the league, it was pretty surprising. Then I looked at The Northerners team logo. It’s the Arizona Cardinals logo. And it all made sense.

There’s quite a difference of opinion on when to draft Rashod Bateman. He was taken with the #10 pick by SKOL Vikes in League #35395, but was the last pick of the second round (#24 overall) in League #28297 by Up Country Degens. Up Country Degens also happen to be in League #35395, but didn’t take Bateman with their #5 pick.

Six Players Drafted in All Six Drafts, Just Not First Rounders

All 11 of the players listed below were drafted in all six of the completed rookie drafts, but were never taken in the first round. At the top of the list, we have Elijah Moore. He is a middle second round pick as he’s been taken with the #16 pick four times and the #19 pick once. And at the bottom, we have the only kicker drafted in the NFL draft, Evan McPherson. He’s also the only kicker who was drafted in these six rookie drafts. He’s been drafted in the third round in all six drafts, as high as with the #28 pick and as low as with the #35 pick.

PlayerPositionTeamSalaryADPHigh PickLow Pick
Elijah MooreWRNYJ$2,235,10717.21619
Kenneth GainwellRBPHI$953,88219.21822
Pat FreiermuthTEPIT$1,507,04519.71822
Chuba HubbardRBCAR$1,048,29421.81625
Kadarius ToneyWRNYG$3,429,87722.82027
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET$1,066,31323.52127
Kyle TraskQBTB$1,383,83425.02129
Amari RodgersWRGB$1,224,97425.32028
Javian HawkinsRBATL$810,00028.32036
Rhamondre StevensonRBNE$1,057,26430.02133
Evan McPhersonKCIN$955,92831.22835

While Javian Hawkins didn’t get drafted in the NFL draft, he’s getting a lot more love from Dynasty Owners. He’s been taken in all six drafts, including once in the second round (#20 overall pick). There was only one other undrafted rookie free agent taken in a Dynasty Owner rookie draft and he’s only been taken once.

All but one of these 11 players was taken at least once in the second round. Only Evan McPherson wasn’t taken in the second round. On the other hand, four players (Elijah Moore, Kenneth Gainwell, Pat Freiermuth and Chuba Hubbard) didn’t last until the third round in any draft.

While Kadarius Toney was a first round draft pick by the New York Giants, no Dynasty Owner in these six drafts took him in the first round. He was taken in the second round in five drafts and lasted until pick #27 (second pick in the third round) in League #31928 before being taken by The Shana-plan.

Solo Acts

There are nine players who were only drafted once out of six drafts. All of these picks were made with third round selections and nothing higher than the #30 pick. If these picks turn out to be great, all of the following Dynasty Owners can crow that they were ahead of the curve on these guys.

  • Kenny Yeobah (TE – NYJ) – #30 pick by ODBs – League #28031
  • Anthony Schwartz (WR – CLE) – #31 pick by MR.FRANCHI$E.2.U – League #34636
  • Gerrid Doaks (RB – MIA) – #32 pick by Garlic Bread Butt Shove – League #27444
  • Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI) – #32 pick by Taylor Park Boys – League #34636
  • Jaelon Darden (WR – TB) – #32 pick by ENDZONE PREDATORS – League #35395
  • Cornell Powell (WR – KC) – #35 pick by Tyrannical T Baggers – League #28031
  • Larry Rountree (RB – LAC) – #35 pick by Country Roads Take Mahomes – League #31928
  • Elijah Mitchell (RB – SF) – #37 pick by Dynasty Jock – Dave – League #31928
  • Hunter Long (TE – MIA) – #37 pick by Dan’s Dynasty – League #35395

Each of these players is someone who might be available in the Free Agent Auction in your league after the draft is over. They also might be someone who you should make an offer for someone’s late third round rookie draft pick if you want them on your Dynasty Owner roster and don’t want to take a chance that this is the only league they are going to get drafted in.

Conclusions

Since the NFL draft, we’ve been talking rookies, from how much salary cap room you need for them to their actual draft position and everything in between. It’s been a fun time digging into rookies after finding out their team and annual salary, but it’s time to turn our attention back to the entire Dynasty Owner player pool in future articles.

Dynasty Owner has great content coming to help you continue to tweak your roster after your rookie or start-up draft is over so you can win your league. My articles and videos to get you ready for your 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up league team will be released now on Wednesdays. Keep an eye out for new articles from the rest of our team of Dynasty Owner writers as well. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) is doing a deep dive on individual teams that you can check out earlier on in the week now as they will appear on Mondays. Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl) looks at how to rebuild your Dynasty Owner roster and everyone will still get his insights on Fridays. All of the articles and videos will be released at 1 PM (Eastern).

Please read all of their articles and follow all three of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter. Hopefully this article is helpful for everyone who hasn’t finished their Dynasty Owner rookie draft yet, and at least interesting to those of you who are done. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Prospect Preview: Jaylen Waddle

Position: WRWeight: 182
College: AlabamaAge: 22
Height: 5′ 10″247 Rating: 4 Stars (0.9791)

By Nate Christian (@NateNFL)

The Rundown:

Coming into the 2020 college football season, Jaylen Waddle was a somewhat popular pick for the classes’ top receiver. In his first four games of the season, Waddle amassed 557 yards and 4 touchdowns with only 25 catches. At an incredible average of 21.1 yards per catch, it was an incredible start to the season and Waddle was the most exciting player in the country. In his 5th game of the season, he went down with a severe ankle injury early in the first quarter and exited the game, looking like his season had prematurely ended. He showed incredible progression in his training and was able to play in the National Championship game (although looking a little hobbled by his injury). An incredible feat just to get back onto the field, Waddle proved to a lot of teams that day that he was a true competitor, ready for the NFL stage.

College Production:

It’s often that we hear fast and explosive players likened to Tyreek Hill ($15,850,500), but it’s not often a player actually deserves that comparison. Waddle may need to add a couple more pounds of muscle to show the same strength that Hill has, but his speed and overall ability to take it to the house are reminiscent. His Junior season stats were impressive, but Waddle has made an impact since he was a true freshman. In 2018 Waddle compiled 45 receptions, 848 yards, and 7 touchdowns. This on the same team as older teammates, Jerry Jeudy ($3,452,949), Henry Ruggs ($3,789,006), and DeVonta Smith. His ability to step into the top program in the nation and immediately compete on the field is incredible and speaks to his work ethic and athletic talent.

Strengths:

  • Lightning Speed
    • There’s a video out on Twitter, from last year, showing Waddle essentially tying Henry Ruggs ($3,789,006) in a 50-yard dash. Ruggs showed up at the 2020 NFL Combine later that year and posted a 4.27 second performance. One of the fastest attempts ever recorded, Waddle is likely to bring that again this year. Unfortunately, with no NFL Combine we may never really know how he’d stack up against Ruggs, John Ross, and Chris Johnson.
  • Offensive Weapon
    • Waddle isn’t just capable of being a team’s top wideout, but he also has the ability to be a playmaker in the return game as well as on the ground (whether out of the backfield or on sweeps). He’s a dream come true for a creative offensive coordinator, but independently talented enough to fit in nearly any offensive scheme. Any team that drafts Waddle isn’t just getting a deep threat, they’re getting a weapon to score touchdowns.
  • Eating Up Green Grass
    • It’s been said many times already in this article that Waddle has the special edge to his game, the ability to score on any play, but as a wide receiver he excels in getting into space (with or without the ball). Without the ball he’s able to speed past cornerbacks, zoom through zone coverage, and make himself an open target for the quarterback. Once the ball is in his hands, he has great vision to find running lanes and can make the first defender miss on his way to pay dirt.

Weaknesses:

  • Not Prototypical “Alpha” Size
    • At 5’ 10” and 182 pounds, he about mirrors Tyreek Hill’s ($15,850,500) measurables. And the reason that’s who I compare him to is because that’s the same role he can play for a team. Hill might not be a “big” receiver, but he still is the WR1 for his team and one of the main offensive outlets. I predict Waddle can be used in a similar fashion and with a team willing to commit to him, I wouldn’t expect any regret for his lack of height.
  • NFL, but not Fantasy
    • There’s a chance that Waddle ends up becoming a much better wide receiver for his NFL team than for your fantasy team. His ability to stretch the field and be used as a decoy in motion could open up space and time for other players on the offense and may be much more valuable to a team than getting his stats some padding. I think most speedsters can have this issue, where they are on the field but don’t make a consistent impact due to the nature of their role in the offense. Waddle brings a lot more to a team than just speed, but this is always something to keep in mind.
  • Dak Prescott ($$$)
    • No, Waddle isn’t going to end up in Jerry World, but the ankle injury he suffered is quite similar to Prescott’s. Teams will be spending as much time as possible weighing the pros and cons of Waddle’s ankle injury and if there is anything more to it. A decision that could prove quite costly if things go south for Waddle, he might be pushed down some teams’ boards depending on what their doctors say.

Things to Watch:

With his continued rehab it will be really interesting to see how he feels at the Alabama Pro Day. With every millisecond counting on some the drills, Waddle will want to be at full health before he starts giving NFL teams a number to study. If Waddle is fully healthy, he’s going to blow up the underwear Olympic activities, but if he’s not 100% I wouldn’t expect him to participate in much. Waddle is constantly talked about as one of the top receivers, but not quite in the top 2 or 3 of the class, I think as the NFL Draft gets closer Waddle will become more and more popular as media outlets realize that NFL teams are interested early. We’ve seen enough teams “ooh” and “ahh” over many other speedsters in the draft.

Projected Round/Contract:  

Without the injury this season, Waddle would have been a lock for the middle of the first round. While the injury may scare a couple teams off, Waddle was able to get back on the field and show he’s made progress in recovery. If teams aren’t worried about the long-term repercussions of the ankle injury, then I’d expect Waddle to still find himself in the early/middle slots of the 1st round. In the scenario that Waddle falls into Day 2, one lucky team would be getting a steal. If drafted in the 1st I would expect Waddle contract to look similar to CeeDee Lamb’s ($3,184,094). Lamb signed a 4-year deal (with 5th year option) worth $14,010,012, counting for $2,547,275 in his rookie year.

Team Fits:  

Perhaps the most popular fit in mock drafts is currently the New York Giants, a team that has a lot of young offensive players but has been lacking high-quality receiver play. Sterling Shepherd ($9,000,000) is good but struggles to stay on the field, Darius Slayton ($908,497) had a sophomore slump, and Golden Tate ($10,852,942) has been in and out of the doghouse all season. The Giants, if willing to give Daniel Jones ($7,189,288) one more year to prove himself a franchise quarterback, could do worse than selecting Waddle to give the offense an extra spark.

A second team that could end up selecting Waddle is the Detroit Lions, the now Matthew Stafford ($20,000,000)-less Detroit Lions. With Jared Goff ($27,825,000) coming into Detroit, and Matthew Stafford ($20,000,000) leaving to LA, I don’t expect Kenny Golladay to re-sign with the Lions. That leaves a huge gap on the depth chart as Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola are both moving on as well. Insert Jaylen Waddle and let him take over that offense an either provide a outlet for Goff ($27,825,000) or a safety blanket for the next quarterback in Honolulu Blue.

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Prospect Preview: Najee Harris

Position: RBWeight: 230
College: AlabamaAge: 22
Height: 6′ 2″247 Rating: 5 Stars (0.9984)

By Nate Christian (@NateNFL)

The Rundown:

Coming into the 2020 season, most draftniks were caught between Travis Etienne and Najee Harris for the best running back in the class. By the end of the 2020 season, Harris has distanced himself enough from Etienne to be the consensus top runner. Eligible for the 2020 NFL Draft, Harris decided to go back to Alabama for one more shot at a National Championship, and it worked out. Not only did he win the 2020 National Championship, but he was also able to boost his draft stock enough to now be considered a possible first rounder, rather than the likely third rounder he would have been last year.

College Production:

Harris finishes his Alabama career as the Crimson Tide’s all-time career touchdown leader, with 57 (46 rushing, 11 receiving), and his 3,843 career rushing yards place him at the top of the school’s history as well. His senior year production was quite impressive as he rushed for nearly 1,500 yards, at 5.8 yards per carry, while scoring 26 touchdowns on the ground. He showed off his ability to be more than just a runner though with 43 receptions for 425 yards and 4 touchdowns. With 30 total touchdowns in his final season, Harris cemented himself as a playmaker ready for the next level.

Strengths:

  • Great Runner
    • It’s hard to rack up 26 touchdowns on the ground without being a great pure runner. Harris has great vision and patience behind the line of scrimmage, and that combined with the Alabama offensive line, meant constant positive gains. While he’s not likely to have such a dominate OL in the pros, Harris’ ability to see gaps develop and dictate linebackers, gives him the edge to quickly transition to the next level.
  • Bulldozer
    • Harris has an impressive highlight reel, but not many of them are long runs with him leaving defenders in the dust. That’s not his game. Most of them are him stiff arming, hurdling, and trucking his way down the field in a methodical bulldozer kinda way. Nearly impossible to bring down at first contact, Harris is going to sit atop the list of Yards after Contact week-in and week-out.
  • NFL-Ready Size
    • There’s really no way to complain about 6’ 2” and 230 pounds. And while he’s not a burner out there, Harris shows off plenty of burst and athleticism to go along with his incredible size. Some players have to gain some more weight to their frame to prepare for the NFL grind, but Harris is going to be just fine and will likely make his opponents consider eating a couple extra cheeseburgers before their matchup.

Weaknesses:

  • Alabama Senior-itis
    • While I wouldn’t call Harris a “generational prospect” (that gets thrown around all to easily, he’s pretty darn close. There aren’t really too many weaknesses that he shows on tape, and receiving concerns have been settled in 2020 and he’s shown up on every stage. The biggest question mark surrounding Harris is what will he look like without Alabama’s talent? Recent Alabama running backs have been just fine, so I don’t think this will be too much of an issue.

Things to Watch:

In a slight surprise, Harris accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama. Without a formal NFL Combine though it makes sense. Harris wants to get in front of scouts as much as possible and show teams that he’s worth a 1st round selection this year. He will want to show off that he can still dominate outside of the Alabama offense. This year’s Senior Bowl should be one of the most exciting, and Harris will be in the spotlight.

Projected Round/Contract:  

When it comes to projecting NFL Draft capital, running backs are always hard to predict. Harris could go as early as the late-teens or fall as far as the second round, simply because running backs don’t get drafted as high as they used to. But to at least give you a sense of what Harris’ contract could look like we’ll use Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s ($2,705,393) contract. That contract was signed for $10,821,570 over 4 years, and of course as 1st round selection would add in the 5th year option for a team to use. But will he go in the first round? Let’s look at some teams that could really use him.

Team Fits:  

My preferred dream landing spot? The Pittsburgh Steelers at pick 24. Now coming from a Baltimore Ravens fan that hurts to say, but as far as a product on the field and in fantasy, you couldn’t ask for much better. James Conner is a free agent and the Steelers have made no attempt to re-sign him, and Benny Snell ($805,517) and Anthony McFarland ($1,004,357) have done nothing to prove that they could lead a playoff team on the ground. The Steelers offense became one-dimensional this season as they struggled to establish the run.

Yes, the offensive line was a factor in that, but also Conner has struggled to stay healthy and isn’t a difference maker when less than 100%. Harris fits this scheme so well, a bigger back who can be used as a power runner, but also hit outside zone and catch the ball out of the backfield. This match could give Big Ben Roethlisberger ($41,250,000) his championship window for another year or two.

Trying to find other landing spots pre-free agency can be difficult as running back is such an easy position to plug-and-play, but another spot for Najee Harris that I quite like is the Buffalo Bills. Yes I know they drafted Zack Moss ($1,048,255) last year, and Devin Singletary ($1,108,956) the year before that, but in the AFC Championship game against the Kansas City Chiefs they were rolling out T.J. Yeldon (a free agent in 2021).

That is unacceptable for a team with Super Bowl hopes. The Bills have a pretty strong team all-around and grabbing the best running back in the class would help them go ahead and have the position set for the future. Harris can fit into just about any offense and make it better, and the Bills would be more than lucky to have him.

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Prospect Preview: DeVonta Smith

Position: WRWeight: 175
College: AlabamaAge: 22
Height: 6′ 1″247 Rating: 4 Stars (0.9717)

By Nate Christian (@NateNFL)

The Rundown:

You most likely already know this name, after all he did become a college football star in 2020, but what does his transition into the NFL look like? Well, depends on who you ask. The film-grinders will tell you the Smith is one of the best receivers in the class and somebody who always impresses. Analytical minds might say that he had a late breakout age (he didn’t produce great numbers until his senior year) or maybe that he’s not worth a high pick because he’s two years older than Ja’Marr Chase. Everyone is right. So, this makes his prospect profile a hard one to comb through. Winning the Heisman did not make Smith a top wide receiver, but his all-around skillset combined with his high-level production are what puts him at the top.

College Production:

It started with a Jaylen Waddle injury and ended with a Heisman. Not to disrespect Smith, who was a top receiver coming into 2020, but Waddle was the receiver everybody wanted to see this year. Once Waddle suffered a (nearly) season-ending ankle injury, Smith stepped up into the WR1 role at Alabama and thrived. One his way to winning the National Championship Smith recorded, 117 receptions for 1,856 yards and 25 total touchdowns. He set the SEC career receiving touchdown record (46), passing Amari Cooper (31) early in the season. Smith’s season (and career) will go down in college football history as one of the best.

Strengths:

  • Crisp Route Running
    • Considered one of the best route runners in the draft coming into the season, Smith improved upon an already incredible ability and spent the majority of the season wide open. His cuts are smooth and he doesn’t seem to lose any momentum out of his breaks. He understands the bigger picture and therefore has great pacing in his routes to setup defenders based on route combinations. They should start calling him Smoothie King because he’s constantly putting defenders in the blender (yeah, I know).
  • Instant Release
    • While Smith is used all over the field, and oftentimes in motion, his ability to line up outside against the other team’s top cornerback is perhaps one of his greatest traits. Within seconds he’s usually past his defender already stacking within 10 yards. When the ball is snapped the defender has to be ready for anything, and with Smith’s wide array of moves and routes he’s almost unstoppable. It doesn’t matter if it’s an outside or inside release, Smith usually wins.
  • Plenty of Athleticism
    • It’s hard to play at the level Smith has for so long without some great athletic ability. His ability to run past the defense and find open grass behind the safeties was nearly unmatched this season, and you can see on the screens and punt returns that he’s a burner and can make people miss. The stop/start ability is there, and defenders struggle to get their hands on and tackle the aptly-named “Slim Reaper”.

Weaknesses:

  • Frame
    • “The Slim Reaper”. It’s a good nickname, but it also points out one of Smith’s few “weaknesses”. His listed playing weight at Alabama is 175 pounds, that’s a bit concerning for the longevity of his pro career, as players at that size don’t have a great history or production or health. But there’s still time until official weigh-ins. While he’s not expected to come in at 200 pounds at any point, gaining a bit of weight would silence a lot of his critics (right or wrong).
  • Breakout Age
    • Breakout Age (BOA) is a great stat, basically measuring how early a player started showing off elite production at the college level. Naturally the earlier the better. And it checked out, players statistically have a better chance of being a top fantasy receiver the lower their BOA. Smith’s breakout age comes out to 20.8, which isn’t terrible, but at the 42nd percentile it surely isn’t lighting up the board. This doesn’t worry me too much considering the competition within the team for touches at Alabama over the past couple years.
  • Overhyped?
    • The first receiver to win the Heisman since 1991. It’s impressive, but that doesn’t really equate to NFL success. Smith is a great prospect and an even better college football player, but the Heisman technically shouldn’t affect his player profile, but he’s become an icon. We’ve seen plenty of players get overhyped in the media and setup to fail with lofty expectations. I’m hoping we don’t see this with Smith, I’m rooting for the kid, but it is certainly something to take into account when projecting his NFL career.

Things to Watch:

Everyone around the league will be keeping their eyes peeled on the scale when Smith finally weighs in. If he comes out at his college listed weight of 175, some teams may push him down the board, scared of the lack of thickness. But if Smith can weigh in around 185 pounds, may doubts will be alleviated, as this puts him in a whole new level of comparisons. Smith needs to be shooting for 185, that’s the number that Marvin Harrison played at and he worked out okay. Outside of this factor, Smith will likely test well and will go into the NFL draft as likely one the of first receivers to be drafted.

Projected Round/Contract:  

Smith’s contract has a bit of range throughout the beginnings of the first round. While some have marked him as high as three overall (to the Miami Dolphins), he’s been seen as low as 18 overall (again to the Miami Dolphins). So it seems the consensus is that the Dolphins don’t pass on Smith twice. If we project him to be projected somewhere in the middle of that range, then his contract would likely mimic the deal that Henry Ruggs ($4,167,907) signed this past summer. That deal would give him 4-years at a total of around $16,671,626, though a bit higher of a draft position could see this number climb to around $20,000,000 total.

Team Fits:  

Well, I guess the obvious first fit is the Miami Dolphins. Pairing DeVonta Smith with his college quarterback Tua Tagovailoa ($7,568,860) just seems too exciting. We saw this last year with draftniks mocking CeeDee Lamb ($3,502,503) to the Arizona Cardinals to pair backup with Kyler Murray ($8,789,661).  The fit seems good, Smith would bring a different dynamic to the current offense which boasts two big receivers on the outside in Devante Parker ($7,625,000) and Preston Williams ($588,333). Smith has the ability to be used all over the field and would be a great (and familiar) weapon for whichever quarterback starts the 2021 season in Miami.

Another common landing spot for Smith is the Philadelphia Eagles. While they just spent a 1st round pick on receiver Jalen Reagor ($3,317,669) in the 2020 NFL Draft, the group of wideouts in Philly could still use help. At sixth pick it may be a luxury for a team that needs so much help along the offensive line, but whichever quarterback the Eagles decide to champion into the 2021 season, they need more weapons. Reagor ($3,317,669) and Smith would create a great 1-2 punch of young receivers to build around.

Lastly, I’ll have to mention a landing spot that I don’t think has been brought up a single time… the Arizona Cardinals. This team already has their WR1 in DeAndre Hopkins ($27,250,000) but there are some questions after that. Christian Kirk ($1,473,717) has failed to consistently impress and will be entering the last year of his rookie contract. There’s also Larry Fitzgerald ($11,500,000) who is likely mulling over retirement. With Kingsbury relying on a fast attack spread offense, Smith would be an incredible fit with all the motion and screens the Cardinals would be able to implement. The Cardinals don’t necessarily need a wideout in the first round, but if Smith is still around at pick 16, I would expect the front office to think long and hard about the future of their current receiver corp.

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Prospect Preview: Kyle Pitts

Position: TEWeight: 246
College: FloridaAge: 20
Height: 6′ 6″247 Rating: 4 Stars (0.9334)

By Nate Christian (@NateNFL)

The Rundown:

There wasn’t much question who the 2020 John Mackey Award (awarded to the nation’s best tight end) would go to this year, Kyle Pitts ran away with the award. He now joins a pretty successful list of tight ends including, T.J. Hockenson ($4,955,306), Mark Andrews ($863,290), Hunter Henry ($10,607,000), and Tyler Eifert ($4,750,000). While the award does not guarantee success at the next level (ask Jake Butt ($675,235), Nick O’Leary ($1,047,500), and Austin Seferian-Jenkins) it adds to an already impressive resume that will assuredly make Pitts one of the top dynasty tight ends as soon as he finds a new home on April 29th.

College Production:

In 2019, with Kyle Trask the full starter for the first time, Pitts caught 54 balls for 649 yards and 5 touchdowns. These numbers, while not gaudy, put him near the top of the 2021 draft-eligible tight ends. Coming into 2020 it looked like a tight competition for TE1 in the draft class, but Pitts quickly made some headway to become the consensus leader of his position group. This past season Pitts caught less passes (43) but up his average to 17.9 yards per catch for a total of 770 receiving yards. This was to go with his 12 touchdown receptions, showing he was an all-around threat in the passing game, not just down the field but also in the red zone. After a successful college career Pitts is entering the NFL as an early declare and will only be 20 years old when the 2021 NFL season kicks off.

Strengths:

  • Seam-buster
    • Remember Vernon Davis and his 4.38 40-Yard Dash? Yeah, Kyle Pitts is fast but he ain’t that fast, and that’s okay. He’s still likely to be in the Top 5 at his position for most measurables and it shows on tape. Pitts is able to quickly move past linebackers and get into the middle of the field where he has space to catch the ball and run. A lot of times for tight ends to get open it doesn’t take much more than just running fast up the middle, Pitts offers that ability and more. A tight end with a strong arm should be able to take advantage of Pitts’ quick release and rack up 15-20 yard gains.
  • Soft Hands
    • The NFL has seen plenty of athletic tight ends come in and out of the league but Pitts has the hands of a big outside receiver to go along with his athleticism. His soft hands allow him to catch plenty of passes outside of his frame and bring them in while on the run. Trask may have been a Heisman finalist but he made Pitts work for a number of his catches.
  • Back Shoulders & Fades
    • At 6’ 6” and 243 pounds, Pitts has a great frame to be physical and consistently outplay defenders. This physicality, and a frame that isn’t all too different from Mike Evans ($16,500,000), allows him to be a weapon outside the numbers. Near the sideline matched up 1v1 against a cornerback, Pitts’ is able to dominate these smaller defenders with his size and speed combination, making him the perfect redzone threat. HIs ability to elevate and box out defenders let’s him move around and be used in many different ways to attack defenses. Some offensive coordinators out there is gonna be very happy to have Pitts in his repertoire.
Full video recap of article with Nate

Weaknesses:

  • Inconsistent Blocker
    • The will and determination is there, but the technique is a bit raw. Pitts is no slouch but he’s not going to be confused for Nick Boyle ($6,000,000) when it comes to blocking. He has a tendency to release his defender too early allowing opponents to get back into play. While he’s not likely to be asked to block very often, this is a small section of his game that could use some improvement to help him get on the field more.
  • Play Strength
    • While I wouldn’t consider this a “weakness” per-say, I’d say it’s just an area that he’s not prolific at and could build upon. Pitts doesn’t have much trouble when lined up against cornerbacks, but when facing a linebacker, he can get caught up off the line if the defender gets inside of him. Pitts will need to work on his initial punch at the line of scrimmage as well as working through contact in his routes. The middle of the field can be full of traffic, Pitts needs to make sure that the shoulder rubs don’t knock him off of his routes.
  • Lateral Ability in the Open Field
    • I’ve mentioned Pitts’ athleticism as a big plus for his prospect profile, but his lateral ability and agility in the open field isn’t going to create a ton of highlights. He’s more of a straight-line speedster than a shifty “make you miss” kind of guy. His burst is great and he’s strong enough to break multiple arm tackles, but in the open field he’s not going to break many tackles with his hips. Once again, it’s hard to find a true weakness in Pitts’ skillset.

Things to Watch:

Pitts is not a player I would say is landing spot dependent, I believe he can be a top weapon in just about any scheme and offense, but at the same time his Day 1 fantasy success will be quite landing spot dependent. As he gets into the draft process, I expect him to run and jump very well, but with a draft process that’s still very much up in the air I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pitts skip a lot of the testing. Pitts is the bonafide TE1 in this class and there’s not much he could do to look any better. There’s a sizable gap between him and the next tight end in this class so I expect Pitts to go about the offseason conservatively, prioritizing health and interviews over measurables.

Projected Round/Contract:  

Last year was the first year since 2016 that we didn’t see a tight end drafted in the first round. This year will assuredly feature at least one tight end on Day 1, Pitts. He’s been mocked as high as Top-5 and has only “dropped’ in early mocks into the late teens. NFL teams know that elite tight ends can be a game changer for an offense and a safety blanket for any young quarterbacks. Also, there is a lack of high quality tight end play around the league and outside of five or so tight ends, a lot of teams could use an upgrade.

With a projected draft slot around the start of the double digits, Pitts’ rookie contract will likely look similar to T.J. Hockenson’s ($4,955,306), who signed a 4-year deal worth $19,821,225 after being selected 8th overall by the Detroit Lions in 2019.

Team Fits:  

As stated earlier, just about any team could use Pitts on their roster. There are a couple teams however that are more likely to prioritize the position and be willing to spend a first round pick on the Florida prospect. Many people have tried to push Pitts to the New England Patriots at 15 but I don’t believe that landing spot makes too much sense. Bill Belichick just spent two 3rd round picks on the tight end position in the 2020 NFL Draft and going forward has too many holes to fill to afford such a luxury pick. So let’s go ahead and fade the noise there.

One of my favorite landing spots for Kyle Pitts is with the Los Angeles Chargers at the 13th overall pick. Hunter Henry is a UFA this year and has already played a season on the franchise tag. With a young stud like Justin Herbert ($6,644,689) leading the offense it makes too much sense to pair him up with a weapon like Pitts and locking up a dangerous combo for at least the next four years. If Pitts’ lands with the Chargers he likely becomes a top-5 dynasty TE from the get go and a near lock for a top-12 finish his rookie year.

If the Carolina Panthers decide against selecting a quarterback at the 8th overall pick, then there’s a chance they might look Pitts’ way. Ian Thomas ($801,999) was invisible for the 2020 season, and whether that is due to a lack of talent or the offensive scheme, the position could certainly use an upgrade. Fans are already drooling at the idea of Pitts and Joe Brady teaming up in Carolina, and I don’t blame them. While I think this landing spot is a bit more far-fetched than the Chargers, Pitts’ could be an extraordinary weapon in a creative offense like Brady’s.

One last possible landing spot for Pitt’s would be a little “sneaky”, and a bit of a fall from his usual projection, the Tennessee Titans. Going into the 2020 offseason Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, Anthony Firsker, MyCole Pruitt, Geoff Swaim, and Kalif Raymond will all be free agents. This means that the Titans will be looking to retool their passing offense, and tight end will be a priority. Pitts’ would be a great replacement for Smith, and would continue the Titans’ current model of athletic pass catchers who can create big plays after the catch. Certainly one to keep in mind come draft day.

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Prospect Preview: Ja’Marr Chase

Position: WRWeight: 200
College: LSUAge: 20
Height: 6′ 1″247 Rating: 4 Stars (0.9589)

By Nate Christian (@NateNFL)

The Rundown:

After a record season as Joe Burrow’s ($9,047,534) favorite target in 2019, Ja’Marr Chase decided to opt-out of the 2020 college football season to start his preparation for the NFL Draft. Some mysteries linger about his game after only a single breakout year, but the tape doesn’t lie, and Chase is arguably the best receiver in a talented and deep draft class.

College Production:

2019 was an incredible one year showing for Chase as a true sophomore. Next to future-first rounder Justin Jefferson ($$3,280,701) and another intriguing 2021 receiving prospect, Terrence Marshall Jr, Chase put up some absurd numbers. He caught 84 passes for 1780 yards, an impressive 21.2 yards per reception, and found the endzone 20 times! His statistics and impact for the LSU offense earned him the 2019 Fred Biletnikoff Award (awarded to the best receiver in the nation) as well as a consensus spot on the All-American team.

Strengths:

  • Strong Hands
    • When Chase gets his hands on the ball it is not often that it gets knocked out or dropped. A player who attacks the ball in the air, he’s constantly working back to the ball and not waiting for it to hit his chest before securing it. He’s adept at the back shoulder catch, reaching outside of his body, and bringing it in over his shoulder while running down the sideline. 
  • Consistently Wins 50/50 Balls
    • Perhaps the thing that sets Chase apart from most of the other receiver prospects in this class is his ability to consistently win down the field. When he gets moving down the field, he’s able to leverage his defender and get into position to have the first crack at the football. His vertical jump projects to measure at the top of the class and its obvious when you see him work above his defender and snatch the ball out of the air.
  • Physical at the Point of Attack
    • When facing press coverage Chase is not scared to attack the cornerback and push him back like a defensive lineman before disengaging and getting into his route. This makes him difficult to slow down and neutralize. Of course, NFL defenders are a bit stronger, but the SEC is full of NFL talent, and Chase showed us in 2019 that he was nearly unstoppable when full of confidence.

Weaknesses:

  • Not a Burner
    • Do not get me wrong, Chase can get down the field and make you pay, but he’s no Tyreek Hill ($18,000,000). His burst is solid coming out of the gate and his speed is enough to keep defenses honest, but in the NFL, he’s not going to be able to win consistently on Go routes on his own athleticism. To keep the defense guessing Chase will have to efficiently utilize more intermediate routes, such as Curls and Outs.
  • Inconsistent Route Running
    • The last point brings up the biggest question mark surrounding Chase, the consistency (and variety) of his route running. With the 2019 LSU team, Chase spent most of his time running down the field looking for the deep ball, but in the NFL, he will need to utilize the whole route tree to be a top wideout. I also noticed that sometimes you could tell when Chase was not one of the first reads on a play, he would come out of the gate without much determination, effectively taking himself out of the play.
  • One-Year of Production
    • As impressive as 2019 was for Chase it was still only one season. Many analysts would have liked to see him comeback and show another season of production and improvement, but the 2020 LSU team was a ghost of the 2019 champions and the choice to opt-out was likely the best decision for Chase, who has been a locked in first rounder for over a year now. As long as Chase has been working hard in training while missing the CFB season, there shouldn’t be too much worry about this issue though.

Things to Watch:

With Chase sitting out the entirety of the 2020 CFB season, it will be interesting to see how he starts marketing himself when draft season starts to kick into gear. In today’s age, a player’s media value can be a factor in their value to a franchise and Chase and his agent know that. The hype around Chase has certainly died down a bit since last year when he was an integral part of the National Champions, but with a couple workout videos and well-edited cuts to epic music, Chase can be back in the national spotlight.

The combine will be his big chance to show that he was making the most of his opt-out and he will be expected to come into the weekend at peak physical condition. On tape I see a 4.5 40-Yard Dash, so if he can get down into the 4.4’s that would be a sign of his hard work over the past year. His height will also be something to keep an eye on as he could measure anywhere from 5’ 11” to 6’ 1”, and he should weigh in somewhere between 200-210 pounds.

Projected Round/Contract:  

At this point we can project that Chase is nearly a lock to be a Top-20 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, pending an injury or a meltdown at the NFL Combine. Financially that means his rookie contract could look similar to Jerry Jeudy’s ($3,798,244). Jeudy signed a 4-year deal worth $15,192,974 after being selected 15th overall by the Denver Broncos. Also, as with all first-round picks, Chase’s contract will include a 5th-year club option for whatever team drafts him.

Team Fits:  

At the end of the day Chase is a player that could fit in any team’s offense and make an impact. At only six-foot he may seem a little small to be a prototypical X-receiver, but he plays bigger than his frame and can be a chain-mover for any team willing to throw the ball down the field. With his projected draft slot being early-mid 1st round, we can narrow down his landing spot to a couple different teams that will be looking for a new playmaker out wide.

One popular landing spot for Chase is the Miami Dolphins (who have two first rounders this year). Pairing Chase with Devante Parker ($7,625,000) and Preston Williams ($588,333) would give Tua Tagovailoa ($7,568,860) plenty of talent to help push the ball down the field.

Another popular team fit is the Detroit Lions who currently only have Quintez Cephus ($899,822) under contract for 2021. Kenny Golladay ($799,081) is set to become a free agent and with a new front office coming in, nobody knows what to expect. Chase could be given the chance to slot into a high-volume role if he finds himself in Detroit.

One more landing spot I’ll mention is the New England Patriots, a team that has a lot of questions moving forward. The quarterback situation is certainly a mystery, but if Bill Belichick looks to bring in a veteran such as Andy Dalton ($3,000,000) or even Sam Darnold ($7,561,929), grabbing a receiver with their first-round pick could be a great move to get them back in the playoff hunt. The Patriots offense has been hurting for a young weapon for a while and Chase would help any quarterback that ends up taking the snaps in Foxboro.

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