Week 14 Recap: Little Change at the Top

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

The NFL standings after Week 13 had 11 teams sitting in the lead or tied for the lead in their division. In the AFC, Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Kansas City each led their respective divisions outright, while Tennessee and Indianapolis sat tied for first place in the AFC South. In the NFC, Green Bay and New Orleans had outright leads, while New York and Washington were tied at the top of the NFC East, while out in the NFC West, Seattle and Los Angeles were tied.

After Week 14, the top of the standings hadn’t changed much as 10 out of those 11 teams were still in at least a tie for first place. While Pittsburgh and New Orleans both lost, neither team fell out of first place. Eight of the other first place teams won to maintain their grip on at least a share of the lead in their division. Only the New York Giants lost and fell out of first place in their division.

It’s a little bit different in Dynasty Owner because it’s the playoffs. While bye weeks for the top two teams in every Dynasty Owner league ensures that the teams with the best records are still alive in their quest for a League Championship, a couple of teams at the top of the Chase for the Ring standings finished outside of the top two in their League. As a result, they had to battle an opponent in the first round of the playoffs.

As we see in the NFL, being in first place in your division is no guarantee of a Week 14 victory. Pittsburgh lost to another first place team in Buffalo, while New Orleans was upset by Philadelphia. Similarly, being in the Top 25 in the Chase for the Ring standings was no guarantee of a first round playoff victory. Just ask Hingle McCringleberry. The 14th ranked team overall after the regular season went down to defeat in the first round of the playoffs (losing a nail biter to Hot Mess by a score of 152.7 to 152.3).

Our Dynasty Owner Player of the Week had a great performance in Week 14 that helped his team stay at the top of their division. For this first round of the playoffs edition of the Dynasty Owner weekly recap, we’ll name the Player of the Week, the Value Player of the Week and also highlight a player at every position who should have been one of your Starters and one who should have been on your Bench or Practice Squad. We’ll also find out if Seth won his playoff game that was featured as our Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week. We’ll also look at the new Chase for the Ring standings featuring only teams still alive for their League Championship and see if any changes that occurred in the Top 10.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of December 15th.

Dynasty Owner Player of the Week

Our first 2020 playoff Dynasty Owner Player of the Week is: Derrick Henry

For the second time this season, Derrick Henry of the first place Tennessee Titans topped 200 yards to receive the 6 point bonus. Not coincidentally, it was also the second time that he has been named the Dynasty Owner Player of the Week. Back in Week 6 against Houston, Henry ran for 212 yards and 2 rushing TDs, including the game-winner in overtime, plus 2 receptions for 52 yards to score 49.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. This week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Henry had three more yards (215) but fewer receiving yards and 42.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (215 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, 2 receptions, 7 receiving yards). He also had more than 40.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (40.5) two weeks ago against the Indianapolis Colts. That’s one game of over 40.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against each team in the division for Henry. A division that he has helped his team to sits on top of along with Indianapolis.

  • Week 14 Points: 42.2
  • 2020 Salary: $10,278,000
  • Cost per Point: $243,555

Congratulations Derrick on winning your second Dynasty Owner Player of the Week honor of the 2020 season and helping your team stay in a tie for first place!

Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week

Because this is Dynasty Owner and we’re all looking for value from the players on our roster, we also have the Value Player of the Week. The first 2020 playoff Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week is: Russell Gage

Gage was a trendy sleeper pick in Dynasty Owner this year after a finishing up the second half of the 2019 season strong. It’s the combination of being the #3 receiver in Atlanta with Matt Ryan at QB for the Falcons offense along with a very friendly contract of $654,049 that runs through the 2021 season. This week, he had his best performance of 2020 with 21.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (5 receptions, 82 receiving yards, 39 passing yards, 1 passing TD). The 21.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points was the fewest number of points scored by a Value Player of the Week in 2020 as well as less than any player who won the honor in 2019.

  • Week 14 Points: 21.1
  • 2020 Salary: $654,049
  • Cost per Point: $30,998

Congratulations Russell on your first Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week honor.

Players Who Should Have Been Starters This Week

Next, we look at those players who should have been one of your Starters based on their performance in Week 14. We aren’t going to write that you should have started Derrick Henry because barring injury or bye week, he should always be in your Starting lineup. Instead, these are players who might normally be on your Bench or Practice Squad, but likely weren’t Starters in Week 14 when they should have been.

QB: Drew Lock (DEN) – 34.4 points

Inconsistency is only thing consistent about Drew Lock’s 2020 season. He’s played in 10 games, scored 163.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points this season and currently ranks as the #28 QB in Dynasty Owner. He has had three games of less than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, three games of more than 30.0 points and four games with between 10.0 and 20.0 points. This week, Lock turned in one of his good performances as he had 34.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (280 passing yards, 4 passing TDs, 4 rushing yards, 2 fumbles – 1 lost). This came on the heels of three poor performances in which he averaged 11.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (he missed the Week 12 game along with all of the other Denver QBs). Lock and his $1.75 million annual salary is owned in every Dynasty Owner league, but after those three bad performances, there were likely few Dynasty Owners who dared to put him in their Starting lineup when they should have done so.

Honorable mention to Mitchell Trubisky who had almost as many Dynasty Owner fantasy points as Lock (33.6) and sits right behind Lock in the QB rankings at #29 even though he has only started six games this year. Despite getting benched  after winning the first three games of the season for Chicago, he is still owned in 80% of Dynasty Owner leagues. This week, he had 33.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (267 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 23 rushing yards). That’s his second best performance of 2020 and one that made him worthy of being in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup.

RB: Cam Akers (LAR) – 23.4 points

With an ADP of 34.6, Cam Akers was expected to be doing better than being the #49 ranked RB after 14 weeks of the 2020 season. As his Dynasty Owners could likely tell you, it was frustrating to see him put up an average of 3.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game over the first ten games of the season and seemingly being the third RB for the Rams. However, after ripping off a 61 yard run in Week 12 against San Francisco, Akers has been the lead RB for the Rams and a welcome addition to the Starting RB mix for his Dynasty Owners. He is averaging 18.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game over the past three weeks, including a career high 23.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (171 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 23 receiving yards) in Week 14. That performance helped the Rams to a win over the Patriots on Thursday Night, a win that allowed them to stay in a tie for the lead in their division. Akers is looking like a must Start player in the Dynasty Owner playoffs after Week 14. Hopefully he was in your Starting lineup this week and your team advanced.

Honorable mention to Gus Edwards of Baltimore who had 18.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (49 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, 1 reception, 4 receiving yards) in Baltimore’s wild Monday Night Football victory over the Browns. That’s a season best performance for another RB stuck on a team with two other quality RBs. The two TDs were unexpected and probably didn’t help too many Dynasty Owners, unless they were smart enough to predict this performance from Edwards and had him in their Starting lineup.

WR: K.J. Hamler (DEN) – 22.6 points

For the second week in a row, we had someone with a very efficient week of two receptions for two TDs. Last week, it was Dan Arnold of the Arizona Cardinals, while this week, it was K.J. Hamler of the Denver Broncos. Hamler had 2 receptions for 86 receiving yards and 2 receiving TDs (22.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) in the Broncos 32-27 victory over the Carolina Panthers. That’s a season high for the 21 year old rookie receiver from Penn State and possibly a preview of things to come in the future between himself and QB Drew Lock. It was his best game of the year and his Dynasty Owners probably weren’t expecting it this week, so they likely didn’t have him in their Starting lineup.

TE: Irv Smith Jr. (MIN) – 16.3 points

Bigger things were expected this season from Irv Smith Jr. than he has produced for his Dynasty Owners. Smith was drafted pretty high as his ADP of 132.9 made him the 13th TE drafted on average. However, he is only the #33 ranked TE for the season in Dynasty Owner, even after his 16.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance (4 receptions, 63 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD) in Week 14. Injuries caused him to sit out three of the past four weeks. Even though he was expected to be productive with fellow TE Kyle Rudolph out, his Dynasty Owners can be forgiven if they didn’t want to include him in their playoff Starting lineup this week and left him on the Bench.

K: Greg Zuerlein (DAL) – 12.0 points

On average, Zuerlein was the fourth kicker off the board in Dynasty Owner drafts this year. The combination of his strong leg (that’s why his nickname is Greg the Leg), the high-powered Dallas offense behind Dak Prescott and a lower than average salary of $2.5 million annually made attractive to Dynasty Owners who picked their kicker on the early side of the draft. However, he’s been very shaky on the longer FG attempts this year, making only one out of six attempts from 50 yards or longer in the Dynasty Owner regular season. He came through this week, nailing a 55 yard FG, plus two other FGs from 39 yards or less (20 and 34 yards) and 3 PATs to be the highest scoring kicker of the week with 12.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Hopefully his Dynasty Owner stuck with him and kept him in their Starting lineup despite Zuerlein being ranked outside of the top 12 kickers prior to the start of the Dynasty Owner playoffs.

Players Who Should Have Been on the Bench or Practice Squad

For every player who should have been one of your Starters but wasn’t, we have at least one high drafted or high ranked player who probably was in your Starting lineup but would have been better left on your Bench or Practice Squad. Here are some likely Starters who scored few, none or negative Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week, so they should have been riding your Dynasty Owner Bench or hanging out on the Practice Squad in the first round of the playoffs.

QB: Matt Ryan (ATL) – 8.5 points

Matt Ryan has played some of his worst football since the Falcons bye week. In the four games since going on bye, Ryan has only averaged 12.35 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Turnovers have been an issue as he had 7 turnovers (5 INTs, 2 fumbles – 1 lost) in the first nine games of the season and 7 of them (6 INTs and 1 fumble – lost) in the last four games. In the first week of the Dynasty Owner playoffs, Ryan only had 8.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (224 passing yards, 1 passing TD, 3 rushing yards, 3 INTs). Hopefully you heeded the warning signs from the previous couple of weeks and left Ryan on your Bench.

RB: James Conner (PIT) – 0.8 points

After missing the past two games, Dynasty Owners with James Conner on their team were likely happy to have him back for the first round of the playoffs. He had averaged 13.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in the Steelers’ first ten games before going on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Unfortunately for everyone who relied on him to return to that form after the time off, Conner went out and put up his worst performance of the year with just 0.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (18 rushing yards, 1 fumble). Even after this poor performance, he’s still ranked as the #24 RB in Dynasty Owner, so he’s still your RB2 or FLEX starter if you advanced in your playoffs or Loser bracket tournament. However, in the first round of both of those, he should have been on your Bench.

WR: Corey Davis (TEN) – 3.4 points

Three WRs (Davante Parker, Mike Williams, Deebo Samuel) who could have potentially been in your Starting lineup had poor performances this week, but all three of them were injured and therefore, not eligible for this spot. One week after his best game of the season (35.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against Cleveland in Week 13), Corey Davis was likely in the Starting lineup for plenty of his Dynasty Owners since he was facing the Jacksonville defense. Unfortunately for them, Davis had his second worse game of the season with only 3.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (3 receptions, 34 receiving yards, 1 fumble – lost). He should have been on your Dynasty Owner Bench, not in the Starting lineup.

TE: Hayden Hurst (ATL) – 1.7 points

Just like Matt Ryan, Hurst hasn’t scored a lot of Dynasty Owner fantasy points since the Falcons’ bye week. He only scored 10.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the first three games after their bye and added just 1.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (1 reception, 7 receiving yards) in Week 14. He has finally fallen out of the top 12 TEs now as he’s the #15 TE in Dynasty Owner after this week. Hopefully his Dynasty Owners had a better option to go with and had Hurst on their Bench or Practice Squad.

K: Brandon McManus (DEN) – 0.0 points

If you consider Sunday the start of the week, then it’s been a pretty miserable week so far for Brandon McManus. And it’s only Tuesday. First, he missed two PAT attempts on Sunday, while making two others to score his Dynasty Owners exactly 0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week. Then on Monday, he announced that he would be heading to the reserve/COVID-19 list because of close contact with someone infected.

Dishonorable mention to Graham Gano of the New York Giants. Gano had been a pleasant surprise at kicker for his Dynasty Owner this season up until this week when the Giants offense only produced one TD and no FG attempts for him. He made the kick, but the 1.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance was his worst of the year. Hopefully concerns about the Giants offense led his Dynasty Owners to leave Gano on the Bench this week.

Special dishonorable mention to Dan Bailey. After missing three kicks in Week 13, Bailey was at it again in Week 14. If you had him in your Starting lineup, you probably know that he ended up with -8.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points after missing all three of his FG attempts (36, 46 and 54 yards) plus his only PAT attempt. That’s seven missed kicks in the crucial final week of the regular season and first round of the playoffs for Bailey’s Dynasty Owners. His ownership is high at 79% so plenty of you have him on your rosters. If you haven’t done it already then banish Bailey to your Bench or Practice Squad.

Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week Recap –

Girthquake vs. CLE Piggy Pauls

The improbable late season and playoff run by Seth and CLE Piggy Pauls continues as they took out Girthquake by a score of 135.7-129.4 in the first round of the Dynasty Owner playoffs. It was a clean sweep of the season series for the CLE Piggy Pauls as they defeated Girthquake twice in the regular season in addition to their playoff victory.

After starting the season at 1-3, Seth ripped off four straight victories before a loss in Week 9 to sit at 5-4 on the season. They got back on the winning track in Week 10 and haven’t lost since then, even after losing their starting QB Joe Burrow to injury in Week 11.

Girthquake had the Player of the Week Derrick Henry and Value Player of the Week Russell Gage on their roster but CLE Piggy Pauls had balance with four players in their Starting lineup scoring over 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. As a result, Seth advances to the playoff semi-finals in the Crossroads League to face Dynasty Owner Tim while Girthquake’s 2020 Dynasty Owner season is over.

Chase for the Ring Leaderboard

If these standings look familiar, it’s because there has been little change in our Top 10 over the past week. It’s all of the same teams with just wanna win moving ahead of All Might into third place. Of course, it’s because all of the teams in the Top 10 had first round playoff byes, but half of them put up more than 190.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week (with another team just missing out with 189.2) to maintain their Chase position. However, there has been a slight bit of tightening of Barbee Kilgore’s lead over all of the Top 10 except second place Quaranteed for Greatness. Barbee Kilgore scored 163.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week, but everyone else in the Top 10 just scored more and closed the gap slightly.


The lack of changes at the top of the Chase for the Ring standings after the first round of the playoffs (as well as the Loser’s bracket tournament) was not a huge surprise. We did lose one Top 25 team, but with everyone playing this week and all of the playoff teams trying to win their League championship, we should have some more movement as only two out of twelve team per League can remain in the Chase.  

The NFL schedule appears to have stabilized and so the regular Tuesday recap and Friday preview articles are on tap. Please read the Week 15 preview article to see how my Week 14 recommendations did and who should be a Starter and who should be on your Bench in the playoffs and loser’s bracket tournament semi-finals. We will have an article on Championship Sleepers and Rookie Rankings from Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) coming on Wednesday as well. Two more weeks without transactions means that we won’t have the regular weekly look at Free Agent Auction targets from Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl), but he’ll be back. Be sure to follow all of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter to read what we’re writing and tweeting.

The podcast series with myself and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer goes live at 1 PM on Wednesday. If you can’t make it live, then watch or listen anytime on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel. You can catch up with older videos and tutorials there as well. Subscribe as well to receive notifications and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner has 569 subscribers on YouTube right now and we thank everyone who has subscribed already. All of this great content is available to help you win your semi-finals matchup and continue your quest to make your way into the Top 25 in the Chase for the Ring standings.

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

League Winners and Playoff Predictions

By: Matt “TheJerk” Morrison (@DynastyJerk)

This is what we’ve all been waiting for.  The time has finally come.  We are officially in the Dynasty Owner Playoffs.  Some of you that are reading this have been eliminated from the playoffs and the Chase for the Ring, but there are also many teams who have grinded their way to a shot at the title.  If you have been eliminated, this article may still help you in the short term and here is why…

Don’t forget that the winner and runner up of the Loser’s Bracket receive a prize.  If you are victorious from the loser’s side of the bracket, you will receive a bonus draft pick that will be at the end of the 1st round of the 2021 rookie draft (Pick #13), and one Amnesty Provision.  The runner up in the Loser’s Bracket receives one Amnesty Provision.  The point is that if you have been eliminated from the overall top prize, don’t give up on the season until you have been eliminated from all prizes.

With the Dynasty Owner postseason starting, that means all trades and Free Agent Auction transactions have halted.  You are no longer able to improve your team through outside sources.  Everything that you do to change your team for the rest of the season will have to be internal.  For this reason, I will no longer be talking about trade targets, free agent finds, or under/over owned players.  All of these topics still matter for Dynasty Owner, but they won’t affect how you play for the remainder of the season.  Think about it this way…

We know that Dynasty Owner is the most realistic fantasy platform ever created.  We marry players to their real-life salaries and through that marriage, we can find value that otherwise doesn’t exist on other fantasy sites.  However, once our rosters are locked and we start the postseason, the salaries tend to matter less.  Now that we are entrenched in the playoffs, the best team is going to win their league.  The team with the best players that score the most points is going to win leagues.  It’s actually a very refreshing feeling (at least for me).  We spend all season trying to figure out value and which player’s salary can be moved or traded, but in the playoffs, all we have to worry about is setting our best lineup regardless of the salaries.  So today I present to you…

TheJerk’s League Winners

The League Winners are an assortment of five players that, in my opinion, are going to win Dynasty Owner’s their championship.  As I stated before, your roster is locked so there is no use in looking to trade for any of these players, but if you happen to find them on your roster, they should be started for the duration of your postseason run.

Justin Herbert (4-Years – $6,644,688/YR)

Herbert makes this list as somewhat of a “chalky” pick.  He is currently ranked QB9 on the season in Dynasty Owner, and he is on pace to smash Baker Mayfield’s rookie record of 27 touchdown passes.  He will also, no doubt, make a run for Andrew Luck’s rookie record of 4,374 passing yards.  (Herbert is on pace for 31 touchdown passes and 4,298 passing yards.)  Whether Justin ultimately takes down these records is still to be seen, but, as I stated, he has been just as impressive for Dynasty Owner managers who took a shot on him in the draft.  It’s not a secret that you are starting Herbert every week despite the matchup, but it is nice to know that he (statistically) has the easiest next three weeks of any quarterback in the league.  Let me break it down…

Herbert finishes his fantasy season by playing Atlanta (Week 14), Las Vegas (Week 15) and Denver (Week 16).  All three of these teams have been generous to opposing game managers throughout the season as they all rank bottom third in the NFL for fantasy points given up to quarterbacks.  Denver and Atlanta have been playing better defense as of late, but they are still able to be exploited by this rising young quarterback.  In addition, the game scripts for all three of these games should be in favor of Herbert.  Aside from last week, the Chargers have been very good at keeping games close.  In ten of their twelve games played, they have won or been within one score.  They do not get blown out very often.  In addition, the Falcons and Raiders have won or lost within one score in nine out out of their twelve games.  The Broncos have either won or lost within one score in eight out of their twelve games.  The point is…these next three games for the Chargers should be competitive, and they should be conducive to fantasy production by Herbert.

This is how confident I am in Herbert for your Championship run.  If you told me that I had to pick a single quarterback to start for the next three weeks, (I couldn’t switch him out with a bench quarterback) these are the only players I’d pick over Herbert…

  • Mahomes
  • Wilson
  • Rodgers

That’s the list.

There are quarterbacks I like over Herbert for individual matchups (D. Watson vs Cincinnati in Week 16 for example), but only three that I would take for the remainder of the season.  Despite his last two weeks being two of the worst three weeks of his season, he needs to be started in almost all playoff matchups.  The bold prediction for Herbert is…

Justin Herbert’s Final Three Games:

  • 967 passing yards – 2 INT – 8 passing touchdowns
  • 60 rushing yards – 1 rushing touchdown

Derrick Henry (1-Year – $10,278,000)

Okay, yes, I know that this is an absolute no brainer, but hear me out.  Derrick Henry is going to win a lot of people fantasy championships this year, but he’s also going to do a lot more than that.  Henry is going to be the #1 running back over the next three weeks by a good amount.  Here is where King Henry sits after Week 13…

He is the RB3 on the season for Dynasty Owner.  He trails only Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara.  Henry has 286 touches for 1,419 total yards with 12 touchdowns.  He has four multi score games this season, and I expect that number to rise.  First, I’ll give you Henry’s next three matchups, and then I’ll drop a bold prediction about how he’s going to finish the season.  Henry has the “easiest” next three weeks of any player in the NFL.  When I say easiest, I don’t presume to say that what Henry does is easy.  What I’m saying is that the next three teams he’s playing are all in the bottom fourth of fantasy points given up to opposing running backs.  Henry is about to play Jacksonville (Week 14), Detroit (Week 15), and Green Bay (Week 16).  That is as good as it gets.  For reference, here is what each team has given up on the ground over the past three weeks.

  • Jacksonville: 153 rushing yards/game
  • Detroit: 111 rushing yards/game
  • Green Bay:  126 rushing yards/game

There will be many opportunities for long runs for Henry during these playoffs.  The Titans rank fourth in the NFL in rushing percentage per play at 48.39%.  Henry is an absolute smash play for the rest of the season, and here is my bold prediction on his stat line.

Derrick Henry’s Final Three Games:

  • 68 rushes – 399 total yards – 7 touchdowns

That prediction puts him at 27.3 fantasy points per game, and I think it’s very possible.  Start Henry with confidence and pray that you don’t face the owner that has him.

David Montgomery (4-Years – $1,003,845/YR)

Montgomery has had a high floor, low ceiling season up until Week 12 and 13.  Through his first nine games he averaged 12.2 fantasy points per game.  In those nine games, his lowest performance was 4.2 points, and his highest was 21.7.  Every other game he played in he was somewhere between 7.4 and 18.9 fantasy points.  He has been very reliable.  Well, following Chicago’s Week 11 bye, Montgomery has come out and put up back-to-back 27-point performances.  He is peaking at the perfect time if you own him, and his schedule remains easy throughout Week 17.  Montgomery does not have a “Derrick Henry Cake Walk Schedule”, but he is facing a couple of the most favorable matchups possible.  He is slated to face Houston (Week 14), Minnesota (Week 15), and Jacksonville (Week 16).  I’m not going to go through the whole breakdown like I did with Henry, but none of these three matchups should scare Montgomery owners.  Houston and Jacksonville should be extremely comfortable for Montgomery owners.  Minnesota has been better lately, but they are still a bottom half rush defense.  Montgomery’s production isn’t what worries me.  What I’m concerned about is the chance that Chicago gets down early in a least a couple of these games and abandons the rush.  Even with that possibility, Montgomery has pulled in nine receptions over the past two games.  He should without a doubt be started in all leagues.  Bold predictions for Montgomery…

David Montgomery’s Final Three Games:

  • 52 rushes – 285 total yards – 4 touchdowns

Tee Higgins (4-Years – $2,171,696/YR)

Finally, we have made it to a little deeper of a pick.  Higgins is probably not the first player you would think of when considering a league winning wide receiver.  And let me be clear, I’m not claiming that Higgins is going to jump to Hill or Adams’ type production.  He is on a much less powerful offense than those two players, and he has lost his starting quarterback (Joe Burrow) for the season.  The knee injury that Burrow sustained in Week 12 was very unfortunate to not only the Bengals as a whole, but also to Higgins.  The type of quarterback play that Burrow was displaying is unable to be matched by Brandon Allen, but that’s not to say his receivers can’t be valuable.

Tee Higgins is the WR 28 on the season.  He is averaging just under five receptions and 66 yards per game.  He has also added five touchdowns.  This is a modest stat line for sure, but he has averaged 13.9 fantasy points per game.  This is a very respectable total for a rookie and one that is, frankly, getting overlooked.  Higgins now enters the last three games of the fantasy season with three very tempting matchups.  The Bengals will face Dallas (Week 14), Pittsburgh (Week 15) and Houston (Week 16).  Not only are each of these matchups above average for wide receiver fantasy points (maybe excluding the Steelers), but the game scripts for each game should be equally as good.  My prediction is that Cincinnati finds themselves trailing in all three games, and they may be trailing by quite a bit.  The Bengals are going to have to pass, and they are going to do it a lot.  While I don’t see Higgins as a better receiver than Tyler Boyd (yet), Higgins has kept pace with Boyd’s receptions over the past two weeks.  If you are looking for a rock bottom floor of 10 fantasy points and a ceiling of 25 fantasy points, Higgins is as reliable as you’ll find.  Bold prediction time…

Tee Higgins’ Final Three Games:

  • 17 receptions – 220 total yards – 2 touchdowns

Mike Gesicki (4-Years – $1,652,981/YR)

And now for the final player in our League Winners.  Here is a tight end that I touted all throughout the off season.  I targeted him in every league that I drafted in (including Dynasty Owner), and I was actually able to acquire him in my BETA league draft.  Mike Gesicki is one of the top three most athletic tight ends in the league, but he hasn’t received the volume that fantasy managers would have liked to see.  I don’t think it’s too harsh to say that Gesicki has had a disappointing season so far.  39 receptions through Week 13 is not what Owners expected.  Regardless, he has shown the ability to have league winning games.  In Week 2, Gesicki put up 8-130-1.  In Week 13, he put up 9-88-1.  As I said, Gesicki has shown that he is able to produce dominant fantasy weeks when given the right opportunity, and I think he will be relied on more throughout the next three games.  While none of Gesicki’s remaining matches is particularly favorable for tight end production, I do believe he will have a positive game script in those games.  Miami plays Kansas City (Week 14), New England (Week 15) and Las Vegas (Week 16).  Miami is expected to be losing or, at the very least, keep the game close in all three.  I look for Gesicki to lead the Dolphins in receptions and receiving yards over the fantasy playoffs.  Bold Prediction:

Mike Gesicki’s Final Three Games:

  • 19 receptions – 202 receiving yards – 2 touchdowns

If Mike is able to put up this stat line, he would be averaging 17 fantasy points per game, and would be well above the average tight end production for the season.

Final Thoughts

I want to finish by saying good luck to everyone this week.  Remember, no one has been eliminated from a prize yet.  You may want to give up because you are no longer competing for the Championship, but there is still work to be done.  An extra pick or an Amnesty Provision will go a long way towards rebuilding for next year.  As always, take care and be safe.


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