Kansas City Chiefs’ Breakdown
Hello Owners, and thank you for continuing to read my weekly articles. I hope all of you are also able to watch my video breakdowns on YouTube or at least listen to them via podcast. As all of you know, I am very passionate about Dynasty Owner. I imagine most of you are too if you follow my articles. I want to thank you all for supporting this platform, and for spreading the news about Dynasty Owner. With that out of the way, I want to talk about last week’s article a little before I jump into this one.
Since the start of 2021, I have been centering my articles around each NFL division and, in turn, each NFL team. Last week was a little different, and I didn’t explain why. When I decided to go with this ranking theme for the month of June, I expected everything to go pretty smooth. We have four main positions that need to be ranked, and we have four teams in each division. I was going to try and put one player from each team in their respective position rankings. The quarterback rankings started with Justin Herbert. Herbert is my number one quarterback in Dynasty Owner. That week worked well. Running back rankings, however, turned out to be harder than I thought. I wrongfully assumed that either Josh Jacobs (LV) or Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) would be my delegate from the running back position. (Hell, I had them both ranked as Top 5 running backs last year.) As I said, that was a wrong assumption. As soon as I stated each player out, I quickly realized that Jacobs belonged nowhere near the Top 10 and CEH was going to rank no higher than RB14. I wanted to sneak CEH into the Top 10, and I thought about it, but it wouldn’t have been reflective of my true rankings. Therefore (as you probably noticed) I did not have a “team theme” for last week. While working on my wide receiver rankings, I found that we are going to have the same issue. No matter how hard I tried, there was no way to fit a Raiders or Broncos wide receiver into the Top 10. Here is my resolution. Next week I will combine the Raiders and Broncos breakdowns into one article. The next article will discuss Top 10 tight end rankings and both teams will have a tight end in the Top 10 for my rankings.
Wide Receiver Rankings
A few important facts to note before I release the rankings…
First, all Dynasty Owner leagues are full PPR (Point per Reception). This means that you will receive one full point for a reception that any of your players completes. Obviously, running backs and tight ends will receive these valuable points as well. For the most part though, wide receivers account for the majority of the PPR points that are handed out. This places a big emphasis on wide receivers especially if you would compare it to a ½ PPR or no PPR league. So, what does this mean for my rankings? To be honest, it plays into them, but does not affect the wide receiver to wide receiver rankings much. What it does affect is my overall rankings, especially how low reception running backs compare to high reception wide receivers. Think about Derek Henry for example. There is a reason that he was not ranked in my Top 10 running backs last week, and the reason is not completely his salary. Henry ranked 45th among all running backs in terms of receptions in 2020. While that drops him below some of his pass catching peers, it also drops him below some wide receivers that you may not expect.
Second, as I mentioned in my previous article, these rankings are not only reflective of value, but they also reflect where I personally like to spend my salary cap. I tend to avoid paying for expensive running backs (at least in the early rounds). This allows me to pay for expensive wide receivers and quarterbacks in the middle rounds. My rankings will reflect that, and it is the reason that I have twice as many “high contract” wide receivers as I do running backs in the Top 10.
|Rank||Player||2020 DO Finish||2021 DO Proj Finish||Years Remaining||Salary|
Justin Jefferson comes in as my WR1 at this moment. What is the reason? He’s on a rookie contract ($3,280,701) for three more years, and he was WR7 in Dynasty Owner last season. Will he be the highest scoring wide receiver in 2021? Probably not. Will he be the highest scoring wide receiver over the next three years? Probably not. But he will be a reliably Top 10 wide receiver over those three years, and there are very few receivers who will have a lower DD/FT (Dynasty Dollars per Point). JJ is top level value in the same way that Jonathan Taylor is top tier value.
DK Metcalf is WR2. I project that Metcalf will outscore Jefferson over the next three seasons but that the point difference will most likely be negligible. Given that idea, the extra year JJ has on his rookie contract is far more valuable than any year to year advantage DK has.
Here is where our “team theme” resumes. Tyreek Hill is an unbelievably talented wide receiver playing with an unbelievably talented quarterback. Here are Tyreek’s last three seasons…
|Rec||Total Yards||TDs||Fantasy Points/Game||Total Fantasy Points|
(Stats are based on a full 16 game season)
These numbers are very consistent, and any of these years would be on pace of a Top 10 wide receiver. Yes, there is an elephant in the room, and it’s the fact that Hill costs $18,000,000 per year to own. That is not a small amount, and it could be too much that you feel scared away from him. I’m here to tell you not to be. If you budget correctly for the rest of the draft, there is no reason that you should be worried about drafting Hill. In one of my paid leagues, I have acquired Patrick Mahomes, Christian McCaffrey, Hill and Darren Waller. Now, you most likely aren’t going to be able to draft all four of them in a startup league, but the point remains…it is possible to spend early and have enough cap to finish the draft. Hill is not going to win any efficiency awards this year, but there is a very real (maybe even likely) possibility that he is the WR1 at the end of the 2021 season. A few more points before we move on…
I haven’t mentioned the receiving bonus or Clutch Scoring that Dynasty Owner employs. The receiving bonus is awarded as 6 points if a player has at least 200 receiving yards in a single game. This is no doubt a rare event. In fact, only three players in 2020 had 200 or more receiving yards in a game. One is Tyreek Hill with 269 in Week 12 against the Buccaneers. Can you name the other two? (Hint: They both had exactly 200 receiving yards and only one is a wide receiver.) While these six points being awarded is rare, Hill is the most capable player in the NFL to do it. I’m going to make a bold prediction right now and predict that Hill will have two 200 yard receiving games in the 2021 season.
The final thing I want to mention is Clutch Scoring. Along with real salaries and bench scoring, Clutch Scoring is one of the many facets of Dynasty Owner that makes it unique. Clutch Scoring is awarded as 3 points when any of your players score in the final two minutes of regulation or anytime in overtime as long as that score results in a lead change. This also applies to tied games. Obviously, this bonus is nearly impossible to predict, and to be honest, the success of the Chiefs hampers all of their players from receiving it. However, if the Chiefs do find themselves down and in a two minute offense at the end of the game, Hill is one of the biggest threats to score. We know he can score and that he can score quick. Again, these bonuses are not likely to be awarded on a weekly basis, but Hill is one of the most capable receivers to get them.
Calvin Ridley has proven quite a bit in his young career, but he will have to prove it all again. This time it will be as the Alpha on his team. There have been numerous tales of secondary wide receivers that were unable to take over as the “lead receiver” after the Alpha left. I personally believe that Ridley can and will do it. It also doesn’t hurt that Kyle Pitts comes in as another prime weapon and matchup nightmare for future defenses. Time will tell how successful Ridley will be as the Alpha, but with two years still on his rookie deal, he will have a lot of room for error.
Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs come in as WR5 and WR6. Both have nearly identical salaries ($14,500,000 and $14,400,000), and they are both coming off of superb seasons (WR1 and WR3). I wouldn’t argue with you if you liked Diggs over Adams, but Adams’ dominant season in 2020 (despite missing two games) puts him just ahead of Diggs.
A.J. Brown and Terry McLaurin rank next as rock solid value picks. The addition of Julio Jones in Tennessee worries me somewhat as he will take volume away from Brown. However, I believe the Julio addition makes the Titans a better team overall which will allow for longer drives and more scoring potential.
CeeDee Lamb has the most expensive contract of all the “cheap contract” receivers on this list. Even still, he is poised to have another successful year. Hopefully in 2021, he will have Dak Prescott for the entire season. If he does, I’m projecting a Top 15 wide receiver finish for him.
DeAndre Hopkins rounds out these rankings, and I struggled with this pick for quite a while. He is by far the most expensive wide receiver in the NFL (it’s not close). However, when I look at his finish last season (WR4) and his projected finish this season (WR2), I can’t help but think that his production necessitates a spot in the list. I am aware that Hopkins is 29 years old and is reaching the declination point for wide receivers in the NFL. I contend that even if he only plays for the duration of the rest of his contract (4 years), he will be productive enough to warrant a top receiver ranking. As I said in the beginning, I will gladly pay for expensive wide receivers if I can successfully draft the cheap running backs.
*The two players (other than T. Hill) that recorded 200 yard receiving games are Tyler Lockett and Darren Waller.
That does it for me this week. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know what you agree with or disagree with as far as my rankings go. Give me a shout if you just want to talk about fantasy football in general. Also, I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Next week I’ll wrap up this division as I bring a double team breakdown and my tight end Top 10 rankings. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.