Buy, Sell, and Hold – AFC West Edition

By: Jay Pounds (@JayPoundsNFL)

I honestly feel like a kid waiting on Christmas right now waiting for football to start. As we continue to inch closer and closer, I will continue to break down what I feel is every player who will have an impact on our Dynasty Owner season. I know sometimes these rebuilding seasons can be frustrating but as I always say your season is what you make of it. If you are rebuilding the last thing you want to do is wait and let the rebuild come to you. You should be trying to attack every weak spot on your roster by trading and picking up young guys who have high upside.

In this week’s article, we will be breaking down the AFC West and what rebuilding owners should do with each player in the division, including the 2-time defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs. I will place each player into one of three categories titled Buy, Sell, or Hold. If you see a player in the Buy category it means he is someone you will want to have on your rebuilding roster, and they are worth trading for if the price is right. Players in the Hold category are players that won’t fetch enough value in a trade to compensate for the upside they have, or they have roadblocks in the way of playing time, a great example of this would be Michael Gallup. The players who are in the sell category are players I feel should be on championship contending rosters, or players who just do not fit a rebuilding timeline. If there is anyone you feel I left out or put in the wrong category feel free to let me know on Twitter!

BUY

Chiefs

  • Patrick Mahomes – 11 years, $45,000,000

As great as Patrick Mahomes is some may question why he is a buy with such a massive contract. While this is a solid argument I feel it will be a value in a few years as the salary cap continues to rise. The only reason not to take on Mahomes if you are rebuilding is if you truly feel we have seen the best of him (we have not). $60 million contracts are not far away in the NFL, so get him while you still can!

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire – 3 years, $2,705,393

Clyde Edwards-Helaire may be my top owned player throughout all my fantasy teams by the time the season starts because of how cheap he got. I understand the hate on CEH, but I don’t agree with it. The kid came into a well-oiled machine of an offense and had 1,100 scrimmage yards on top of missing three games because of injury. I also see him getting a pretty significant bump in passing game work in 2021. If you are sleeping on him going into the year I feel you will come to regret it when all is said and done.

  • Byron Pringle – 1 year, $2,133,000

Byron Pringle has been a quiet, yet solid pro in his days with the Kansas City Chiefs. I have Pringle as a buy here because someone in the Chiefs receiving room must emerge as the number two guy. As a rebuilding owner I’m only looking to acquire the Chiefs 2nd guy to move him in a later deal, as I feel they will draft someone at the position next year.

  • Mecole Hardman – 2 years, $1,248,763

Mecole Hardman like Byron Pringle has a clear-cut opportunity for the number 2 receiver role in Kansas City. Fantasy managers have been excited for Hardman since the day he was drafted, and he has yet to pan out. I am buying Hardman anywhere I can but be careful not to overpay on someone who has not done it in the NFL yet.

  • Cornell Powell – 4 years, $930,038

I have seen a ton of buzz on Powell since being drafted by the Chiefs and I honestly don’t agree with it. Powell had a so-so college career at Clemson and was not talked about all that much before the NFL draft. All of that said, I do have him as a buy simply because he is young and attached to Patrick Mahomes.

  • Antonio Callaway – 1 year, $920,000

Antonio Callaway is a complete flier at this point in his career but just like the few listed before him, he plays in the right offense. Callaway started his career with the Browns and flashed success as a rookie, but after character concerns coming into the league he found himself in trouble shortly after being drafted. If Callaway can find his way in KC, he could be a steal that absolutely no one is talking about.

Chargers

  • Justin Herbert – 3 years, $6,644,688

I won’t speak to much here on Herbert as his play at the quarterback position as a rookie sums up why you want this kid on your roster. I have said it many times and will say it many more, young quarterbacks are Dynasty Owner gold.

  • Joshua Kelly – 3 years, $1,018,835

At the beginning of 2020, we saw Joshua Kelly involved early and often giving his owners a lot of hope. Once Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson went down, it seemed like Kelly was going to be the featured guy. Instead, it turned out to be more of a committee approach featuring Kalen Ballage. Kelly is a longshot, but you can get him for next to nothing at this point.

  • Larry Rountree – 4 years, $913,940

The Joshua Kelly replacement is going to be none other than Larry Rountree. I am not expecting him to have a big impact in year one if Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson stay healthy, but he is in play to have a big role in 2022. I can also see the possibility of him being involved early as Jackson and Ekeler are not known for running between the tackles. Rountree has a wide range of outcomes and will be cheap to acquire. Rountree for power back in L.A.!!

  • Josh Palmer – 4 years, $1,258,365

While the Chargers did elect to bring Mike Williams back on his fifth year option, I still think Palmer can be effective in year one. Palmer underwhelmed big time at Tennessee in college but has all the tools to be the type of receiver the Chargers envisioned Mike Williams to be when they drafted him in the first round.

  • Jalen Guyton – 1 year, $540,000)\

Jalen Guyton quietly showed great progress throughout 2020 and may have earned himself a role moving forward. The number 2 spot in L.A. is Mike Williams spot to lose but the 3rd spot is wide open in an offense who put up a ton of points last season. If you can get your hands on Guyton and he does win the job, I would look to flip him before the season is over and add some extra draft capital to your team.

  • Tre’ McKitty – 4 years, $1,196,462

I talked about Tre’ McKitty a while back and love the future outlook of this kid. In front of McKitty on the Chargers roster is an aging Jared Cook who seems to just catch the ball and fall down at this stage of his career. I do not expect McKitty to overtake Cook instantly but by the end of the year, I would not be surprised to see McKitty as a starting tight end who is tied to Justin Herbert for many years to come.

Raiders

  • Henry Ruggs – 3 years, $4,167,906

I am not sure there was a more upsetting position player than Henry Ruggs in 2020. Ruggs was the first wide receiver taken in last year’s draft ahead of guys like Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, and Tee Higgins, making the Ruggs selection that much worse. You can probably pick up Ruggs for a 2nd round pick plus a little something extra to make the other owner feel warm and fuzzy. The Raiders will give Ruggs every chance in the world to succeed this season, which is why he is an easy buy for rebuilding owners.

  • Darren  Waller – 3 years, $7,450,000

In my opinion, Waller is a massive buy for rebuilding owners with a big but, which is if you are just starting your rebuild I would wait until after this season to buy him, so he is not winning your team a bunch of games and hurting your draft capital. At just 28 years old, Waller should still be producing big time when your team is ready to compete. We have yet to see the best of Darren Waller on a football field.

  • Bryan Edwards – 3 years, $1,173,113

Does everyone remember how hot of a name Bryan Edwards was at this time last off-season? Edwards had an insane amount of hype and I honestly feel like it was because the Raiders had no one for him to compete with. Fast forward a year and Edwards is being talked about some, but nothing like last season. Odds tell us one of Henry Ruggs or Bryan Edwards will have a solid year based on volume alone. Rebuilding owners should acquire these guys now and see what happens.

  • Hunter Renfrow – 2 years, $708,987

While Hunter Renfrow should likely be a hold, I am going to go out on a limb and label him a buy. He will be a longshot and will never be a star, but he can offer consistent bench scoring, or if a receiver or two gets hurt for the Raiders you may be able to sell him for a good amount more than it took to get him. Remember rebuilding owners just because they are a buy before the season it does not mean you need to keep them forever.

  • Marcus Mariota – 1 year, $3,500,000

I have Marcus Mariota here for two reasons, one being he looked great in relief last season for Carr, and second because the Raiders seem to hate Carr as much as Bruce Arians hates Ronald Jones. If you have Mariota on a rebuilding roster and Carr goes down for the year, someone will pay a premium for Mariota at his current contract.

Broncos

  • Javonte Williams – 4 years, $2,216,438

Like I always say I tend to shy away from running backs at the start of a rebuild but Williams should not see a massive workload in year one which should preserve his body some. Williams is the ideal rebuilding running back because he has a bright future and should not win you any weeks in year one sharing time with Melvin Gordon. Buying Williams now will be expensive, but his asking price should only go up from here on out.

  • Jerry Jeudy – 3 years, $3,798,243

Jerry Jeudy had a rough collection of quarterbacks throwing him the ball in 2020, yet he still had a solid season and really picked it up towards the end of the year. These are three of the quarterbacks Jeudy was stuck catching passes from last season, Drew Lock, Jeff Driskel, and Kendall Hinton. Big time production is coming for Jeudy owners.

  • Courtland Sutton – 1 year, $1,710,480

As much as I love Courtland Sutton, I had a lot of trouble putting him in with the players rebuilding owners should be buying. The issues I have with Sutton have zero to do with his talent on the field but with him coming off an injury and his salary getting ready to go up significantly I am not sure he is right for rebuilding owners. If you have cap room and can afford to keep him next season, I would take the risk if Sutton comes cheap enough.

  • K.J. Hamler – 3 years, $1,784,282

Hamler reminds me of a toddler who just ate an entire bag of pixy sticks because of the way you see him zooming all over the field and he is very tough to locate at times. Hamler has the makings of today’s DeSean Jackson and if that turns out to be true, he is someone you will want on your rebuilding roster. Hamler should not cost much more than a 3rd round pick right now as he is still a year or two out from really making a difference, which is the perfect time to buy.

  • Noah Fant – 2 years, $3,147,680

Noah Fant is a young athletic tight end who has gotten better each year in the league. If I am a rebuilding owner buying Fant I am praying he does not completely explode until his contract is finished. If Fant continues to slowly get better each year until his deal is up, he will probably get Darren Waller money, but if he explodes beforehand he is going to get pricey quick. The tight end position is a true difference maker in fantasy, if you are rebuilding make sure you find an up-and-coming stud.

  • Albert Okwuegbunam – 3 years, $1,011,011

I hope all of you watch the video and hear how bad I mess this man’s name up. Albert Okwuegbunam is a solid young tight end who seems like he will find a steady role in the NFL. I am not expecting Albert O to become a star by any means, but he could be someone who is an extremely solid bench player in the coming years.

HOLD

Chiefs

  • Darwin Thompson – 2 years, $661,960

I will keep it short and sweet with Darwin Thompson as he could probably be left off the list at this point. If you have Thompson, he will net you nothing in a trade. If you must, hold onto him and see what happens. I would prefer to outright drop Thompson for someone with more upside.

  • Demarcus Robinson – 1 year, $1,127,500

I have Robinson on the Hold list instead of the Buy list like the rest of the Chiefs receivers because he is a bit older and has had more chances to make an impact. Robinson is definitely worth a roster spot, and I would recommend holding to see what happens. He may blow up and net amazing value in a trade.

Chargers

  • Justin Jackson – 1 year, $570,000

If Justin Jackson could ever stay healthy he could be an excellent change of pace back. In 2020, Jackson had a fantastic opportunity with Austin Ekeler going down and just could not stay healthy. As a rebuilding owner I would hold onto him for the year unless you get blown away by an offer. Jackson will be a free agent this year and could end up in a Tarik Cohen type role elsewhere.

  • Mike Williams – 1 year, $15,680,000

Has anyone had enough of Mike Williams after just four NFL seasons? If Williams can ever put together a full season he could be a tremendous value. Williams has already had a 10 touchdown season and a 1,000 receiving yard season in his career, yet it’s been more disappointing than not. I’m keeping Williams for now but if he explodes and you can find a taker I would move him in a heartbeat.

Raiders

  • Derek Carr – 2 years, $25,000,000

As I mentioned in the part featuring Marcus Mariota, the Raiders hate Derek Carr. Carr has been a solid NFL quarterback since taking over the Raiders miserable franchise, making them relevant again, at least somewhat relevant. The Raiders have done a horrid job of building around Carr. If you do not believe me just look at some of the guys Jon Gruden has drafted; cough, cough Henry Ruggs over CeeDee Lamb, or Justin Jefferson. As of now Carr is a hold as you will not get much in return for him because of his salary and the fact he offers zero upside running the ball.

  • Kenyan Drake – 2 years, $5,500,000

As much as I love the talent of Kenyan Drake, I have to say I cannot remember a more frustrating fantasy career. In the beginning of Drake’s career, we all just wanted to see him get consistent playing time. He then gets moved to Arizona where he blew up over the back half of the season in 2019. Drake was given the transition tag and the keys to the Arizona backfield where he was a disappointment in 2020. Fast-forward to 2021 and Drake is now behind Josh Jacobs after it seemed he would be a Cardinal for a while.

  • Willie Snead – 1 year, $1,127,500

At this stage of Willie Snead’s career, I am not expecting him to do a whole lot, but we have seen crazier things happen in the NFL. If you already have Snead rostered I would hold onto him just in case Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards are complete busts again this season.

  • Zay Jones – 1 year, $2,500,000

I won’t waste much of your time talking about Zay Jones, but he could end up in a situation like I just mentioned with Willie Snead.

Broncos

  • Mike Boone – 2 years, $1,925,000

If you own Mike Boone I see him as a must Hold. Boone has been talked about as an extremely talented running back who just can’t find the field. Boone started in Minnesota behind Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison and the second it looks like he is finally a clear-cut backup to Melvin Gordon, the Broncos draft Javonte Williams. If Williams does not pan out, or if Gordon has lost a step Mike Boone could step in with no problems.

  • Tim Patrick – 1 year, $3,384,000

2020 was the Tim Patrick show in Denver! If Patrick didn’t have another year remaining on his deal in 2020, he would be an easy cheap buy right now, but the fact is he will be playing behind Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and a 2nd year K.J. Hamler, who has potential to make noise, keeps him off the Buy list. I’m holding Patrick in the hopes that Sutton is not ready to start the year and, in that scenario, I’m offing Patrick for whatever I can get.

SELL

Chiefs

  • Darrel Williams – 1 year, $1,600,000

It seems Darrel Williams is going into the year as the clear cut backup for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Williams did not impress in the work he received in 2020 and should be firmly on every rebuilding owner’s trade block. Get what you can before you can’t!

  • Tyreek Hill – 2 years, $18,000,000

As I mentioned last week with Nick Chubb and Lamar Jackson, I hate labeling these players as a sell but in Dynasty Owner it makes even more sense. Tyreek Hill is not going anywhere for a while, but he will be getting a massive new deal in just two years. Even as great as Hill is, if I’m rebuilding, I’d take the big package he will fetch and move on.

  • Travis Kelce – 5 years, $14,312,500

Travis Kelce is perhaps the best tight end we have ever seen in the NFL and I’m telling you to get rid of him now. At 31 years of age, Kelce will probably be producing when you are ready to compete, but it makes much more sense to go after players like Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, or Darren Waller who you can get for Kelce no problem and all of whom are younger. Rebuilding is all about trading current productive players for future productive players and Kelce is no exception.

Chargers

  • Austin Ekeler – 3 years, $6,125,000

Austin Ekeler is my favorite sell on the list, simply because he is highly productive on a team friendly deal. Ekeler has half of the contract as the other RBs in his range with a whopping three years remaining. If you are moving Ekeler make sure the other owner realizes what a value his contract is in a very weak running back market. Oh, and being attached to Justin Herbert never hurts.

  • Jared Cook – 1 year, $4,500,000

I am guessing Jared Cook’s best days have come and gone. Cook can still be a productive tight end for a couple more seasons but has no business being on any rebuilding roster. Jared Cook is no different than Eric Ebron who I mentioned last week as an aging tight end who can help contenders. Move him for whatever you can get at this point.

Raiders

  • Josh Jacobs – 2 years, $2,983,350

While Josh Jacobs is no Nick Chubb, it still feels gross to call someone like him a sell with how the running back landscape is looking. In 2021, if you have a Top 20-25 running back you should be able to get 1.5 times the value you would have last year. The running back market looks like a steaming pile of poop at the moment and rebuilding owners with running backs should take advantage of it.

  • John Brown – 1 year, $3,750,000

I know we all remember how Nelson Agholor came out of nowhere with the Raiders last season and put up a very solid year, solid enough to land a sizable contract from the Patriots. Barring a complete turnaround for both Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards, Brown should step into the role Agholor played so well last season. Brown is a borderline hold but I would sell him if the opportunity presents itself.

Broncos

  • Drew Lock – 2 years, $1,752,704

I do not know how many times I’ve said it, but cheap quarterbacks are gold in Dynasty Owner. At this point we are all unsure if Lock will be the starter this year for the Broncos, but someone will take a flier on him just because he will come cheap. Drew Lock is someone I would let go for any draft capital as a rebuilding owner. I also would not blame you if you held Lock to see if he is the starter when the season starts, which will no doubt raise his trade value.

  • Teddy Bridgewater – 1 year, $11,499,000

If I own Teddy Bridgewater, I am selling him immediately. There is a good chance (in my opinion) Lock is the starter at the beginning of the season because he was drafted early by the Broncos. If that scenario plays out, you will likely get nothing out of Bridgewater and if you do get something, it will be minimal. If Bridgewater is the Broncos perceived starter in 2021, I highly recommend you capitalize as soon as possible. The other thing to look at with Bridgewater is do you really think Bridgewater will be starting come 2022. I know I do not.

  • Melvin Gordon – 1 year, $8,000,000

Finally, we have the controversial Melvin Gordon. Gordon is facing a suspension this season, which could lead to his demise in Denver. While Gordon is away, it will do nothing but give the coaching staff opportunities to look at Javonte Williams and Mike Boone. If I have Gordon and there is a decent offer on the table, he is as good as gone. Gordon is also another player you could gamble and hold, but I would not recommend it with him.

Conclusion

Here you have it guys, half of the AFC has been broken down into categories for you. I would love to hear if you feel different about players than I do and why.

I want to take a second to thank all of you for playing Dynasty Owner and helping the platform grow. If you plan to invite some friends over to the site, be sure to check into the all-new affiliate program to earn some cash back for helping spread the good word. As always don’t forget to check out Matt’s articles and videos which release on Mondays and Steve’s articles and videos which release on Wednesdays. Thank you for reading and as always good luck on your 2021 Chase for the Ring!

Dynasty Owner QB Tiers

By Steven Van Tassell

Tier rankings are one way that fantasy players and analysts categorize players. There are a lot of ways to do it and plenty of websites and analysts who do these types of rankings. A quick Google search for “Fantasy Football Tiers 2021” turns up about 4.1 million results. If you add the words “Dynasty” at the beginning, it increased to about 4.86 million results. However, if you make it “Dynasty Owner”, the number drops down to about 686,000 results. Those searches just use all of the words.

If we want all of the results for exactly “Fantasy Football Tiers 2021” or “Dynasty Fantasy Football Tiers 2021”, there are a more manageable number of results with about 14,600 and 14,400 respectively. However, if we want all of the results for exactly “Dynasty Owner Fantasy Football Tiers 2021”, we get the following screen:

This shouldn’t come as a surprise to returning Dynasty Owners. There isn’t anybody doing these rankings for Dynasty Owner because it’s much more difficult. After all, you need to factor in salaries as well as 2021 projected production and long-term projections. In a “regular” dynasty fantasy football league, you don’t have to worry about Patrick Mahomes’ new $45 million salary for the next 11 years, but Dynasty Owners do. Dynasty Owners also need to consider how much Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are going to make in 2022 when deciding whether to draft them or not. For all Dynasty Owners, we’re going to cover this new territory over the month of July with a series of articles about Dynasty Owner Fantasy Football Tiers 2021 (that’ll stop the above page from coming up). This week, it’s QBs followed by RBs, WRs and TEs. We won’t do any tiers for kickers, but Dynasty Owner uses them, and you’ll still need at least two of them and preferably three to account for the need for a Bench kicker on bye weeks.

All 2021 projections come from Rotowire and are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Average Draft Position (ADP) listed is from 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up drafts and was accurate as of the morning of July 6th.

These Tiers Go Up to Eleven

Dynasty Owner tiers are not the same as tiers for other fantasy football leagues or on other fantasy football websites. There are multiple factors to consider in Dynasty Owner including current salary, future salaries, 2021 projected stats and long-term potential. Dynasty Owners also need to have a Starting QB and Bench QB every week, so more QBs will be used by Dynasty Owners than in a single-QB league, or even a SuperFlex league. That’s why we have more tiers and more players listed than elsewhere.

Just like Nigel Tufnel’s amplifier, these tiers go up to 11. Of course, there are a couple of tiers with an “a” and “b” to really make it 13 tiers, but let’s not confuse matters. The QB tiers are:

  • Tier 1a – High Value Young QBs
  • Tier 1b – High Value Young QBs who Are Getting Paid Soon
  • Tier 2 – Low Value, but High Production Veterans
  • Tier 3 – High Potential Young QBs
  • Tier 4 – Young QBs who Need to Prove Something to Get Paid
  • Tier 5 – Low Salary QBs with Unclear Futures
  • Tier 6 – Veterans at the End of Their Careers on One-Year Contracts
  • Tier 7 – Veterans who Might Start in 2021 on One-Year Contracts
  • Tier 8 – Rookies with Future Potential
  • Tier 9 – Veteran Handcuffs
  • Tier 10a – Low Salary QBs on One Year Contracts so Why Not in Case They Play
  • Tier 10b – Low Salary QBs on Multi-Year Contracts so Why Not in Case They Play
  • Tier 11 – Veterans to Avoid Drafting Due to High Salaries

Tier 1a – High Value Young QBs

These are the elite QBs for a Dynasty Owner to have as all of them are young (24 or younger) and expected to put up plenty of Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021. They are still playing on their rookie contract that has multiple years left on it, so they have lots of value and a low Dynasty Dollar per Point (DD/PT) figure for at least two years.

Dynasty Owners are going to have to draft these five guys early in their 2021 start-up drafts as their current ADPs range from 8.3 to 43.9. In order from lowest (aka Best) DD/PT to highest, they are:

PlayerYearly SalaryYears2021 Projected Points2021 DD/PT
Jalen Hurts, PHI$1,506,2923422.5$3,565
Justin Herbert, LAC$6,644,6883461.8$14,389
Kyler Murray, ARI$8,914,5042473.8$18,815
Trevor Lawrence, JAC$9,198,3724434.1$21,190
Joe Burrow, CIN$9,047,5343418.9$21,598

The QB with the highest ADP (43.9) is Jalen Hurts who has the lowest projected points in 2021 (422.5) and the best DD/PT by far at $3,565 because of his salary of just slightly over $1.5 million. Kyler Murray is the only QB listed who was drafted in 2019 and only has two years left on his contract, while Trevor Lawrence is the only rookie QB in this elite tier.

Tier 1b – High Value Young QBs who Are Getting Paid Soon

In a “regular” dynasty league, this would be one tier as these two QBs would be combined with the five QBs in Tier 1a since salaries don’t matter. However, this is Dynasty Owner and the fact that Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are going to get huge salary increases in 2022 is very important since Dynasty Owners have to stay under the salary cap and those contract extensions will make it difficult to keep Allen or Jackson on your Dynasty Owner roster. To keep them, Dynasty Owners will likely be forced to drop other productive players for salary reasons. Even though they will get paid soon and have new 2022 salaries, they still have low ADPs (16.2 for Allen and 38.0 for Jackson) that will require Dynasty Owners who want them to draft them in the first couple of rounds.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears2021 Projected Points2021 DD/PT
Lamar Jackson, BAL$2,367,9121441.4$5,365
Josh Allen, BUF$5,295,7601493.1$10,740

Jackson is about twice as valuable since his salary is less than half as much as Allen. However, Allen is projected to score more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than Jackson in 2021 so if you want Allen, you’ll have to draft him earlier.

Tier 2 – Low Value, but High Production Veterans

While these guys are NFL veterans, age is not the reason they are on this list. The important factor is that they are on multi-year contracts that will pay them at least $25 million per year in salary. No more rookie contracts for these guys. They cost you a lot in salary, but they should provide plenty of Dynasty Owner fantasy points in return for that salary (at least 400.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021).

PlayerYearly SalaryYears2021 Projected Points2021 DD/PT
Tom Brady, TB$25,000,0001419.1$59,652
Matthew Stafford, LA$27,000,0002417.9$64,609
Ryan Tannehill, TEN$29,500,0003426.9$69,103
Aaron Rodgers, GB$33,500,0003451.4$74,214
Russell Wilson, SEA$35,000,0003448.9$77,968
Dak Prescott, DAL$40,000,0004479.7$83,385
Patrick Mahomes, KC$45,000,00011524.2$85,845
Deshaun Watson, HOU$39,000,0005401.4$97,160

The players at the top and bottom of this list need additional explanation. The G.O.A.T. (Tom Brady) is listed on Dynasty Owner as only having one year left on his contract, but he is signed with Tampa Bay through 2022 and plans on playing until then when he turns 45 years of age. Dynasty Owners can drop him free of charge after the 2021 season when his $25 million extension for the 2022 season kicks in if they want. Deshaun Watson is projected to score over 400.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021, but he might produce none in 2021 and future years due to his legal troubles. Dynasty Owners who draft Watson, or kept him on their roster when his new $39 million per year contract kicked in, should make sure they have an Amnesty Provision on hand to use in case he doesn’t play this year and they need to find another QB.

Tier 3 – High Potential Young QBs

These are the “potential” elite QBs who are just a step below the Tier 1a QBs since they are projected to score fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021 than the elite QBs. If you believe in one of these guys, you can draft him at a discount this year compared to the elite QBs as their ADPs range from 46.0 to 83.7 and maybe give him a year to develop since they all have two or more years left on their rookie contract.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears2021 Projected Points2021 DD/PT
Justin Fields, CHI$4,717,9884324.8$14,526
Daniel Jones, NYG$6,416,0142378.1$16,969
Mac Jones, NE$3,896,5884192.5$20,242
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA$7,568,8593315.6$23,982
Trey Lance, SF$8,526,3194305.7$27,891
Zach Wilson, NYJ$8,787,6704299.8$29,312

Four out of the six QBs listed here are rookies drafted in first half of the first round of the 2021 NFL draft. The others were also early first round picks, but in 2019 (Daniel Jones) and 2020 (Tua Tagovailoa). Daniel Jones is projected to score the most Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021, while Mac Jones is projected to score the fewest.

Tier 4 – Young QBs who Need to Prove Something to Get Paid

Tier 4 could have easily been combined with Tier 3 except for the looming one year left on each Tier 4 QB’s contract. They are a couple of tiers below fellow 2018 NFL first round draft picks Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson because they haven’t produced as many fantasy points as them and aren’t guaranteed to get paid. Both of them could have a great year in 2021, prove to their current team that they are worth a huge salary contract and get paid. Or, they could have a poor season, have their fifth year option declined and become a backup on a one-year contract like Mitchell Trubisky.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears2021 Projected Points2021 DD/PT
Sam Darnold, CAR$7,561,9291370.6$20,405
Baker Mayfield, CLE$8,170,7451384.5$21,250

Tier 5 – Low Salary QBs with Unclear Futures

None of the QBs on this list are the clear starter on their team and two are definitely going to be backups, but all of them have affordable salaries that make them attractive to Dynasty Owner. All of them are also worth owning for different additional reasons.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears2021 Projected Points2021 DD/PT
Gardner Minshew, JAC$677,7212111.1$6,100
Drew Lock, DEN$1,752,7042220.9$7,934
Jordan Love, GB$3,095,8633249.5$12,408
Brandon Allen, CIN$1,500,00010.0N/A 

Minshew is unlikely to play for Jacksonville, barring an injury to Trevor Lawrence, but his rock bottom $677,721 salary for two more years makes him attractive if Lawrence does get hurt, or if another team trades for him and gives him an opportunity to play. Drew Lock only has to beat out Teddy Bridgewater to be the starter in Denver. Jordan Love might be the starter in Green Bay, depending on the playing status of Aaron Rodgers, which makes him a solid speculative add even at the highest salary ($3.1 million) on this list. Finally, while Brandon Allen is projected to score zero Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021 and only has one year left on his contract, I added him to this tier because of the potential that Joe Burrow could miss the beginning of the 2021 season due to the injury he suffered that ended his 2020 season. If Allen plays even a game or two, Dynasty Owners would have a bargain at only $1.5 million in salary for 2021. He’s widely available now with only 11% ownership.

Tier 6 – Veterans at the End of Their Careers on One-Year Contracts

Both QBs in Tier 6 are likely in the final year of their careers since they are nearing 40 years of age. While each one has a double-digit million dollar salary, it’s a bargain relative to other veterans and they only have one year contracts. Both are projected to score fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points than the veteran QBs in Tier 2, but they will provide better value and cost at least $10 million less than the Tier 2 QBs.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears2021 Projected Points2021 DD/PT
Ryan Fitzpatrick, WAS$10,000,0001368.6$27,130
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT$14,000,0001320.6$43,668

Roethlisberger is probably the safer play out of the two despite the extra $4 million in salary since it’s unlikely the Steelers play one of the many other QBs on their roster over him. Fitzpatrick also has a couple of younger QBs on the Football Team roster to contend with, but it would be less surprising to see him yield time as the season progresses than Big Ben.

Tier 7 – Veterans who Might Start in 2021 on One-Year Contracts

This tier is one of the largest with seven QBs falling in it. The potential to start varies greatly as do the salaries and the projected value for 2021. None of them are signed beyond 2021, so they can be easily shed off your Dynasty Owner roster if they get injured or aren’t the starter for their team since you’ll only have to pay 25% of their remaining salary to drop them.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears2021 Projected Points2021 DD/PT
Blake Bortles, GB$1,075,000164.8$16,590
Cam Newton, NE$5,100,0001289.6$17,610
Jameis Winston, NO$5,500,0001307.6$17,880
Tyrod Taylor, HOU$5,500,0001194.6$28,263
Taysom Hill, NO$12,159,0001312.1$38,959
Teddy Bridgewater, DEN$11,499,0001249.2$46,144
Andy Dalton, CHI$10,000,0001200.2$49,950

The only player at a true low salary is Blake Bortles at $1.075 million. Of course, he’s the most unlikely to play any snaps in 2021. The three QBs in the $5 million range could all see significant time in 2021, but also might not depending on if they win a QB battle (Winston), can hold off a rookie first round pick (Newton) or the real starting QB on the team plays (Taylor). The stories are similar for the $10 million plus salary QBs. One needs to beat out another QB on this list (Hill), win a QB battle with a younger, cheaper QB (Bridgewater) or hold off a rookie first round pick (Dalton). Dynasty Owners are taking a chance with all of these guys in Tier 6, but fortunately they are all on one year contracts so there’s no long term commitment or large drop fees.

Tier 8 – Rookies with Future Potential

In terms of 2021 value, all of these players have next to none. Some of them are projected to score Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021, but don’t count on it. Davis Mills is the most likely, but he’ll need to beat out a couple of veterans in Tyrod Taylor and Jeff Driskel plus have Deshaun Watson out for the year to make that happen.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears
Kyle Trask, TB$1,383,8344
Kellen Mond, MIN$1,305,8544
Davis Mills, HOU$1,304,3834
Ian Book, NO$1,038,3964
Jacob Eason, IND$1,006,8163
Sam Ehlinger, IND$902,6774

Trask and Mills have very similar ADPs right now (152.6 for Mills; 152.8 for Trask), while Mond and Mills were drafted back-to-back at the beginning of the third round of the 2021 NFL draft, so their salaries are virtually identical. Trask’s salary is about $80,000 higher than both of them since he was the final pick in the second round. Technically, Jacob Eason isn’t a rookie, but he didn’t play at all in 2020 so this is the best tier for him. He’s here along with fellow Colts backup QB Sam Ehlinger who is indeed a rookie.

Tier 9 – Veteran Handcuffs

These QBs are also unlikely to play. Take a look at the list and think about the teams they play for, and you’ll know why. But, if you have the starter ahead of them of your Dynasty Owner roster, it could be worth paying a couple of million, or less in some cases, for these veteran handcuffs in case of an injury.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears
Case Keenum, CLE$6,000,0002
Jacoby Brissett, MIA$5,000,0001
Joe Flacco, PHI$3,500,0001
Marcus Mariota, LV$3,500,0001
Mitchell Trubisky, BUF$2,500,0001
Chad Henne, KC$1,625,0001
Colt McCoy, ARI$1,212,5001
Geno Smith, SEA$1,212,5001
Chase Daniel, LAC$1,075,0001

Out of the nine of them, Marcus Mariota is the most likely to play this year for Las Vegas. Case Keenum is the most expensive at $6 million and is the only one with two years left on his contract. That explains why he’s also unowned in Dynasty Owner right now. All of them are widely available with Trubisky having the highest ownership at 43%.

Tier 10a – Low Salary QBs on One Year Contracts so Why Not in Case They Play

This tier is filled with a bunch of QBs who make less than $1 million and probably won’t play in 2021. Some of them might not even be the backup. They could be the third string emergency QB. However, they don’t cost much and if the opportunity presents itself, all of them do have NFL experience. They are flyers for sure, but cheap ones and only have to be kept for 2021.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears
Mason Rudolph, PIT$980,4721
Nick Mullens, PHI$970,0001
Kyle Allen, WAS$850,0001
Dwayne Haskins, PIT$850,0001
Josh Rosen, SF$850,0001
Phillip Walker, CAR$782,5001
John Wolford, LA$770,0001

Mason Rudolph did sign a one-year extension for $5 million for 2022, but Dynasty Owners can always release him after that contract kicks in if they don’t want to keep him for 2022. Nick Mullens might still be listed as a Free Agent with a $750,000 salary, but he signed with Philadelphia for almost $1 million in mid-June.

Tier 10b – Low Salary QBs on Multi-Year Contracts so Why Not in Case They Play

Another “b” tier as all of these guys would be in the same tier in a “regular” dynasty league, except for that extra year on their current contract. That makes them a bit more expensive than the Tier 10a guys so slightly less valuable in Dynasty Owner.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears
C.J. Beathard, JAC$2,500,0002
Taylor Heinicke, WAS$2,375,0002
Will Grier, CAR$963,2492
Jarrett Stidham, NE$788,4232

Heinicke has the most likely path to playing time in Washington, which is why he’s 81% owned in Dynasty Owner and you’ll need to draft him in the later stages (ADP 223.2) of your start-up draft if you want to secure his services. Jarrett Stidham is owned in 42% of Dynasty Owner leagues, but that’s probably because Dynasty Owners took him in 2020 drafts when it was expected that he was the starter in New England. Many of these owners probably didn’t release him since his salary is low and he did play some in 2020.

Tier 11 – Veterans to Avoid Drafting Due to High Salaries

None of these guys are worth drafting in your 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up draft. They cost too much, are projected to finish outside of the Top 12 QBs in 2021, have more than one year left on their contract and will produce fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points than other veteran QBs at similar salaries (see Tier 2). If you have one on these players on your roster already, they will cost you an Amnesty Provision or lots of Dynasty Dollars to drop so they could be worth keeping around since all of them are projected to start in 2021 (at least at the beginning of the season). They might have a renaissance season, like Aaron Rodgers did in 2020, and end up being worth their contract.

PlayerYearly SalaryYears2021 Projected Points2021 DD/PT
Derek Carr, LV$25,000,0002372.9$67,042
Matt Ryan, ATL$30,000,0003393.0$76,336
Kirk Cousins, MIN$33,000,0002394.8$83,587
Carson Wentz, IND$32,000,0004368.3$86,886
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF$27,500,0002278.8$98,637
Jared Goff, DET$33,500,0004301.3$111,185

Not surprisingly, none of them are owned in more than one-quarter of Dynasty Owner leagues with Carr having the highest ownership (25%), along with the lowest salary in the tier at $25 million. Kirk Cousins has the lowest ownership at less than 1% (.81% to be exact). For the 2.4% of Dynasty Owners with Jared Goff, he’s projected as the #30 QB in 2021 and to have the highest DD/PT by far, as the only starting QB with a projected 2021 DD/PT of over $100,000.

Conclusion

There you have it. The first Dynasty Owner Tiers. No more zero matches when you search for Dynasty Owner Fantasy Football Tiers 2021. Depending on how you count them, it was either 11 or 13 of them. And we didn’t even include a couple of QBs who might play and find their way on to a few Dynasty Owner rosters this year (Mike Glennon, Jeff Driskel, etc.). More tiers to come for the other positions (RB, WR and TE) for the rest of July. Let me know what you think of these QB tiers on Twitter (@SteveVT33) or in the comments section on YouTube.

Dynasty Owner has great content coming to help you draft your dynasty. We can also provide guidance as you continue to tweak your roster after your rookie or start-up draft is over so you can win your league. My articles and videos to get you ready for your 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up league team are being released on Wednesdays. Keep an eye out for new articles from the rest of our team of Dynasty Owner writers as well. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) is doing a deep dive on individual teams that you can check out on Mondays, while Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl) looks at how to rebuild your Dynasty Owner roster on Fridays. All of the articles will be released at 1 PM (Eastern) with videos and podcast released at 3 PM (Eastern).

Please read all of their articles and follow all three of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter. Hopefully this article is helpful for everyone who has a 2021 start-up draft coming soon, and at least interesting for those of you who have already drafted or have an established team. Maybe it’ll give you and other Dynasty Owners some ideas for potential trades too. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Top Dynasty Owner QB-TE Stacks

By Steven Van Tassell

Rookie drafts are finished for most established Dynasty Owner leagues and in the third round for the rest (I’ve got one finished and one still at pick 3.04). It’s also possible that there are some leagues still in the second round if teams in your league are milking the 24-hour clock, but that’s another story entirely. Regardless of your rookie draft status, it’s time to go back and look at how to draft your 2021 start-up Dynasty Owner team.

One of the best ways to start your dynasty is to draft a QB and receiver (WR or TE) from the same NFL team. For those of you unfamiliar with the term, this is called “stacking” and it’s something that a lot of fantasy analysts preach, and fantasy players try to do with their teams. Stacking a top QB with a top WR or top TE is a tried and true strategy, but in Dynasty Owner, stacking isn’t as easy as in your typical redraft or dynasty league. Adding in salaries makes it more difficult to stack players in Dynasty Owner because some stacks are prohibitive expensive and not worth the money. In addition, it’s difficult to keep both players in a stack as their salaries increase.

The benefits of stacking are pretty great. If your QB throws a TD pass to your WR or TE, you get 6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for the QB and the receiver. You’re doubling your production on just one play! The drawbacks are that if one of those players goes down to injury or is unproductive, you’ve possibly focused a good portion of your starting lineup or salary cap on a pair of players who aren’t producing. Last year’s Chase for the Ring Champion Viktor and his Barbee Kilgore team (League #35395) had a three-player stack from the Kansas City Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. All three players performed tremendously all season and finished as the full season as QB3, WR2 and TE1 for the entire 2020 season. They are projected to be QB1, WR1 and TE1 this season, so it would seem like a great strategy to stack the three of them again in 2021. However, because of salaries increases for Mahomes and Kelce, Viktor can’t afford this stack anymore in 2021. He had to drop Mahomes for free when his new $45 million salary for 2021 kicked in and traded Tyreek Hill away, but kept Kelce and his new $14.3 million salary.

This never would have happened in a “regular” dynasty league, but in Dynasty Owner, it’s what teams need to do to stay under the salary cap and still be competitive. The Mahomes-Hill-Kelce stack was only $31.475 million in 2020, or 28% of the $112 million salary cap. In 2021, those guys will cost you $77.3 million, or over three-fifths of the $127.75 million cap. In order to have Mahomes, Hill and Kelce this year, you’d only have a little over $50 million left for the remaining 22-27 players on your Dynasty Owner roster. In contrast, Viktor still had just over $80 million in salary left last year for the rest of his Chase for the Ring winning team.

Since there are so many players to stack and we need to look back at 2020 and forward to 2021, this article will focus only on QB-TE stacks. In order to be listed as a stack, the duo had to have at least 300.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points with the QB scoring at least 200.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and the TE scoring at least 100.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the 13-game Dynasty Owner regular season. This is to ensure that both players are worthy of owning. While it’s possible to stack Buffalo QB Josh Allen with TE Dawson Knox, Knox only scored 36.0 points in the Dynasty Owner regular season. Similarly, Broncos TE Noah Fant didn’t have consistent QB play during the season and QB Drew Lock only had 129.4 points in the Dynasty Owner regular season. Neither one of those stacks are listed as a result.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

For the purposes of this article, all 2020 statistics listed are from the Dynasty Owner regular season (Weeks 1 – 13). Projected statistics for 2021 are provided by Rotowire, posted on the Dynasty Owner app and website, and taken from the Mock Draft lobby at Noon on June 15th. Salaries listed are from the 2020 and 2021 Dynasty Owner season respectively.

Top QB-TE Stack of 2020

It should come as no surprise that the top QB-TE stack of 2020 was Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. The duo combined for a whopping 664.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 13 Dynasty Owner regular season games, an average of 51.1 points per game. They performed at a high level nearly every week with a low of 22.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 7, and a high of 79.7 points in Week 8. Only four times in 13 weeks did they score less than 50.0 points combined.

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT*
Patrick MahomesQBKC$4,106,447423.1$9,706
Travis KelceTEKC$9,368,400241.6$38,776
TOTALS  $13,474,847664.7$20,272

* DD/PT stands for Dynasty Dollars per Point (2020 Salary divided by Points)

Due to their 2020 salaries being pretty low (less than $13.5 million combined), they only cost $20,272 per point. Only one QB-TE duo had a lower DD/PT amount in 2020. We will get to that later in the article.

Basically, the Mahomes-Kelce QB-TE stack was the one to have in Dynasty Owner in 2020 from a points and value standpoint. However, as detailed earlier, this is not likely to be the case on the value side in 2021 as Mahomes’ salary rockets up to $45 million in 2021 and Kelce’s also increases by nearly $5 million up to $14.3 million.

Other Top QB-TE Stacks of 2020

Overall, there were a total of 10 QB-TE stacks that produced at least 300.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points with 200.0 or more points from the QB and 100.0 or more points from the TE. The second ranked QB-TE stack was unlikely to be drafted by many Dynasty Owners, but proved to be very productive. It was the Green Bay duo of Aaron Rodgers and Robert Tonyan.

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT
Aaron RodgersQBGB$33,500,000386.4$86,698
Robert TonyanTEGB$750,000138.7$5,407
TOTALS  $34,250,000525.1$65,226

In terms of points, they finished second with 525.1, or 40.4 per game. That’s 10.7 fewer points per game than Mahomes and Kelce. In addition, they cost over three times as much on a per point basis ($65,226 per point) and 2.5 times as much in salary, basically because of Rodgers’ $33.5 million salary.

The next six QB-TE stacks all had over 400.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points combined, but none provided as much value as Mahomes and Kelce. The closest combination was Justin Herbert and Hunter Henry from the Los Angeles Chargers who scored 427.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (32.8 per game) for only $17.25 million in salary. However, they were still almost twice as expensive on a per point basis.

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT
Justin HerbertQBLAC$6,644,688309.3$21,483
Hunter HenryTELAC$10,607,000117.7$90,119
TOTALS  $17,251,688427.0$40,402

However, if your Dynasty Owner team had both Herbert and Henry in 2020, it’s not a stack anymore as Henry has moved on in free agency to the New England Patriots. The same is true for two other stacks that produced very similar points in 2020 (Matthew Stafford-T.J. Hockenson from Detroit and Ryan Tannehill-Jonnu Smith from Tennessee).

Best QB-TE Value Stack of 2020 (and 2021?)

In terms of value, which is what all Dynasty Owners are striving for because of the salary cap, the Baltimore Ravens pairing of Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews is difficult to beat. They may have only finished with only 382.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2020 (29.4 points per game), but their cost per point was the lowest at $8,441.

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT
Lamar JacksonQBBAL$2,367,912265.4$8,922
Mark AndrewsTEBAL$863,290117.4$7,353
TOTALS  $3,231,202382.8$8,441

Both players returned value with DD/PT amounts of under $10,000. That’s what happens when the two players make a combined salary of $3.231 million, or less than one-tenth of what Aaron Rodgers costs on his own.

But is it likely to be the best value stack of 2021? If both Jackson and Andrews stay relatively healthy and productive, since the salaries for both of them will be the same in 2021, it seems likely. That won’t be the case in 2022 as both players will be free agents and make significantly more in salary.

Projected Top QB-TE Stacks of 2021

Not surprisingly, the top scoring stack of 2021 is projected to be Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce with 798.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

PlayerPositionTeam2021 Salary2021 Projected2021 DD / PT
Patrick MahomesQBKC$45,000,000524.2$85,845
Travis KelceTEKC$14,312,500274.0$52,235
TOTALS  $59,312,500798.2$74,308

However, their new, higher salaries make their value not as great as 2020 as they will cost their Dynasty Owner $74,308 per point in 2021 if they hit their projections. That’s nearly four times as much as 2020.

In terms of projected points scored though, they are difficult to top as no other QB-TE combination is expected to be within 100.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points of Mahomes and Kelce. There are a lot of potential stacks projected to score between 600.0 and 660.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021 and a few of them could be much better values than Mahomes-Kelce.

The first one is our top value stack of 2020 in Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews. As noted before, their salaries will be the same in 2021, but their production is projected to increase and thus make them even more valuable in 2021.

PlayerPositionTeam2021 Salary2021 Projected2021 DD / PT
Lamar JacksonQBBAL$2,367,912436.1$5,430
Mark AndrewsTEBAL$863,290222.5$3,880
TOTALS  $3,231,202658.6$4,906

The Ravens QB-TE stack is projected to only cost $4,906 per point in 2021, which is over $3,500 less per point than they did in 2020 when they were the best value stack in Dynasty Owner.

Believe it or not, they aren’t even projected to be the best value in 2021. That honor goes to Jalen Hurts and Dallas Goedert of the Philadelphia Eagles who will make slightly less than $3 million combined and are projected to score almost as many points as Jackson and Andrews.

PlayerPositionTeam2021 Salary2021 Projected2021 DD / PT
Jalen HurtsQBPHI$1,506,292422.5$3,565
Dallas GoedertTEPHI$1,406,068204.9$6,862
TOTALS  $2,912,360627.4$4,642

Hurts and Goedert together are projected to cost their Dynasty Owners only $4,642 per point in 2021. They will be about $300,000 in salary less than Jackson and Andrews and are projected to produce only 31.2 fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points. While Hurts is locked up with the Eagles through the 2023 season, Goedert can be a free agent in 2022, which possibly makes this a one-year only stack.

For Dynasty Owners looking for a long-term QB-TE stack, the combination to draft might just be Bears QB Justin Fields and TE Cole Kmet.  Both are barely projected to finish in the Top 25 at their respective position in Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021 and they will cost twice as much as either Jackson-Andrews or Hurts-Goedert. However, you’ll have them for a few years as Kmet doesn’t hit free agency until 2024 and Fields isn’t a free agent until the 2025 season. Their 2021 projected scoring isn’t that impressive, and their 2021 value is almost $10,000 more than the other two stacks, but they could be a great value as a duo for the next three seasons.

PlayerPositionTeam2021 Salary2021 Projected2021 DD / PT
Justin FieldsQBCHI$4,717,988324.8$14,526
Cole KmetTECHI$1,894,444139.6$13,571
TOTALS  $6,612,432464.4$14,239

They could be the next Mahomes-Kelce, or not pan out, like Broncos QB Drew Lock and TE Noah Fant so far in their careers. Dynasty Owners willing to take a chance will have several years to find out.

Conclusions

As you can see, there are many ways to stack a QB-TE in Dynasty Owner. While the Mahomes-Kelce combination will likely yield you the most points in 2021 as they did in 2020, it comes at a greater cost which could limit the rest of your Dynasty Owner roster. Going for value, such as Jackson-Andrews last year and in 2021, might not score your team as many points, but you’ll have lots of salary cap room for other great players who can contribute. Unfortunately, that stack will only be valuable for 2021 and then could end up costing close to as much as Mahomes and Kelce in 2022 and beyond.

Justin Herbert and Hunter Henry were a good duo in 2020 and provided decent value, but they aren’t on the same team in 2021 due to free agency. That could happen to a projected 2021 value duo like Jalen Hurts and Dallas Goedert (or even Jackson and Andrews) next year. They might break up and be on separate teams, or Goedert might stay but cost his Dynasty Owners a lot more in salary.

Dynasty Owner has great content coming to help you draft your dynasty. We can also provide guidance as you continue to tweak your roster after your rookie or start-up draft is over so you can win your league. My articles and videos to get you ready for your 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up league team will be released now on Wednesdays. Keep an eye out for new articles from the rest of our team of Dynasty Owner writers as well. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) is doing a deep dive on individual teams that you can check out earlier on in the week now as they will appear on Mondays. Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl) looks at how to rebuild your Dynasty Owner roster and everyone will still get his insights on Fridays. All of the articles and videos will be released at 1 PM (Eastern).

Please read all of their articles and follow all three of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter. Hopefully this article is helpful for everyone who has a 2021 start-up draft coming soon, and at least interesting and stirs up some trade thoughts for those of you who have already drafted or have an established team. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

2020 Dynasty Owner Regular Season Awards

By: Jay Pounds (@JayPoundsNFL)

Do you remember back in June wondering if there would even be a 2020 NFL season? Well, the NFL did it with surprisingly minimal hiccups. We saw plenty of game time changes, game date changes, player and personnel changes, no preseason, and so many more little altercations from the norm, but all that said it was still a fantastic football season. The most extreme case we all witnessed in 2020 was the Denver Broncos quarterback situation, other than that the NFL must be thrilled with the way this season played out. While the NFL season is not finished yet, the Dynasty Owner season is and with that can only mean two things, the offseason, and the end of season awards.

With the offseason now upon us it is a very crucial time for our owners compared to other formats. In the coming months you will need to handle your roster, contracts, preparing for the rookie draft, and much more. If you would like to stay ahead of the field be sure to keep an eye out for future articles and videos by the Dynasty Owner team, but enough talk about the coming months, it is time for the awards.

These awards will have silly names just as the midseason awards did, with different winners of course. I take immense pride in being able to bring you all these awards as it is something, I always enjoy reading each year from all the different analysts around fantasy football. My favorite part about awards in sports are the great debates and opinions that come with them, so if any of you would like to debate some of these please feel free to message me on twitter.

The “Why Did I Draft Him” Award

  • Winner- Michael Thomas – 5 years – $19,250,000/ $229,439 ($DD/PT)
  • Runner Up – T.Y. Hilton – 1 year – $13,000,000/ $79,172 ($DD/PT)
  • Award Meaning – A player who was a headache for owners.

Thomas – The classic why did I draft this player dilemma is never a fun place to be. Michael Thomas is the winner here and while he was injured for a portion of the season, he also was punching his teammates at practice and causing issues according to reports. Talent will never be the question with a player of Thomas’ caliber but off the field issues may be, and while I am not saying it is a foregone conclusion that he is the next Antonio Brown, it is not a fantastic looking pattern of behavior either. Owners had to pay Thomas over $19 million this season and got virtually nothing in return aside from 3 decent games (by Thomas standards).

Hilton – Interestingly I decided to put the runner-up Hilton in 2 awards that contraindicate each other (as you will see later) but that is the beauty of Dynasty Owner, Hiltons contract is the sole reason he is the runner-up.

Midseason Winner – T.Y. Hilton

The “I Am So Glad I Drafted Him” Award

  • Winner – Josh Allen – 2 years, $5,295,760/ $10,261 ($DD/PT)
  • Runner Up – Calvin Ridley – 3 years, $2,725,178/ $9,715
  • Award Meaning – The most surprising player with a low $DD/PT.

Allen – This is one of the best awards to have one of your players win in my opinion. If you had Allen this season you drafted him extremely high, which let us face it, it was a risk at the time. Allen has tremendous rushing upside near the goal line which is one of the main reasons Owners drafted him so high. What owners did not expect is the level of top end consistency in the passing game that this kid was able to produce this season. Allen finished as the QB-2 overall with 2 games scoring 50 points or more and a total of 6 games with 40 points or more scored. He had over 4500 yards passing with 37 touchdowns in 2020 making the future in Buffalo brighter than it has been in decades.

Ridley – The runner-up Ridley finally had his breakout season we all expected. He finished with almost 1400 yards receiving and missing double digit touchdowns for the 2nd time in his career by just 1. Ridley was also able to display that he is more than capable of being the number one guy when Julio leaves town, which means great news for his owners.

Midseason Winner – Gardner Minshew

The “I Really Want Him Moving Forward” Award

  • Winner – Justin Jefferson – 4 years, $3,280,071/ $12,008 ($DD/PT)
  • Runner Up – Jonathan Taylor – 4 years, $1,957,287/ $7,476 ($DD/PT)
  • Award Meaning – The best dynasty asset moving forward.

Jefferson – I am not sure there is much I can tell you about the winner of this award that you have not already seen or heard. The LSU product undeniably exploded onto the scene in week 3 and then never looked back, shattering records along the way. As a rookie he was able to amass 85 catches for 1400 yards and 7 touchdowns, finishing as the number 7 wide receiver for the year. The fact Jefferson was able to do all of this with extremely limited mini camps, OTA’S, and zero preseason makes what he accomplished even scarier than it originally looked. If you were one of the lucky owners who drafted or acquired Jefferson consider yourself blessed, because you should have a starting slot on your roster filled for quite some time.

Taylor – The runner up Taylor started the year off in a bad way and looked horrible while doing it. He was constantly missing holes, running into blockers, and getting outperformed by teammates on a weekly basis, until week 10 that is. Taylor finished as strong as I can ever remember a rookie finishing and looks poised to be the next great back in fantasy.

Midseason Winner – DK Metcalf

The “Juggler” Award

  • Winner – D.J. Chark, 2 years – $1,111,807/ $7,238 ($DD/PT)
  • Runner Up – Leonard Fournette – 1 year, $2,000,000/ $14,925 ($DD/PT)
  • Award Meaning – A player who was very inconsistent.

Chark – One of my favorite overall awards in this entire article is this award, and that is because drafting a talented player who you never want to play due to inconsistency happens to every owner at some point, no matter how good you are. What I mean by that is every owner that plays not just dynasty owner, but fantasy football has drafted a headache at some point. While Chark did not have a horrible season, he also did not get anywhere close to what was expected of him from fantasy owners. After starting the 2020 season on fire Chark fell off dramatically after week 4 posting just one week over 20 points and just 3 games with 10 points or more after week 6.

Fournette – Fournette, the runner up was chosen for many of the same reasons as Chark. Fournette was drafted high in all leagues only to be cut from the Jaguars shortly after. He then showed signs of promise in week 2 with a massive game leading to false hope for his owners.

Midseason Winner – Dionte Johnson

The “Best Jay Suggestion” Award

  • Winner – Mike Davis – 1 year – $3,000,000/ $14,599 ($DD/PT)
  • Runner Up – Nelson Agholor – $1,047,500/ $5,644 ($DD/PT)
  • Award Meaning – The best free agent of 2020.

Davis – The best free agent in 2020 is hands down Mike Davis. The way Davis was able to step in and give you close to 3/4ths the production of CMC is superhuman if you think of the context behind it. CMC is the greatest fantasy player since Tomlinson, and Davis is a journeyman back who has never stuck with a team. Davis was able to manage 642 yards rushing on just 165 carries, while adding an additional 373 yards receiving and 8 touchdowns. We will see if this turns into a shot somewhere for Davis or another backup role, but either way he played well enough to win this award in 2020.

Agholor – The runner up Agholor is another veteran no one expected to have a good season yet here we are talking about him. Agholor had a great connection with Derek Carr and that paid off to the tune of just under 900 yards and 8 touchdowns. If Agholor ends up back in Vegas, he may be a sneaky weapon next season.

Midseason Winner – Travis Fulgham

The “Best Young Gun” Award

  • Winner – Justin Herbert – 4 years $6,644,688/ $15,392 ($DD/PT)
  • Runner Up – Joe Burrow – 4 years $9,047,534/ $40,517 ($DD/PT)
  • Award Meaning – The best rookie quarterback.

Herbert – The fact that Burrow was injured really stinks for the sake of this award, and for Burrow himself as well. These two rookie signal callers did nothing but put on a clinic this past season. Herbert broke the rookie record for touchdowns finishing with 31 passing, and 5 rushing. 36 total touchdowns for a kid few seemed sold on back in April/May. It is safe to say the Herbert owners should have a significant advantage moving forward with Herbert gaining more experience at such a cheap salary. Herbert was the quarterback 9 for the season with a low salary that is locked in for years to come.

Burrow – The runner-up was having a record-breaking season himself before a season ending injury ruined those plans. He has great leadership as well as a Jordan type drive, so he should be back fully healthy in no time. The fact he was able to put those types of numbers up while having one of the worst offensive lines in the league is impressive.

Midseason Winner – Joe Burrow

The “Kitchens to Stefanski” Award

  • Winner – Jonathon Taylor – 4 years, $1,957,287/ $7,476 ($DD/PT)
  • Runner Up – T.Y. Hilton – 1 year, $13,000,000/ $79,172 ($DD/PT)
  • Award Meaning – Trash to treasure, or most improved.

Taylor – The midseason award I did for this I chose the player most improved from the previous season. The end of season award will go to a player everyone wrote off during the season but turned it around. Taylor is the most deserving of this award with such a frustrating start to his season. As I mentioned above it was not pretty for Taylor but in week 10, he finally got enough carries to get going and then he never looked back. Taylor capped his run with a 253-yard performance against Jacksonville in week 17, along with 2 touchdowns.

Hilton – The runner up is oddly enough Taylor’s teammate T.Y. Hilton whom started terribly slow as well turning it around shortly after Taylor did, yet oddly enough the offense ran ok before and after.

Midseason Winner – Corey Davis

The “Reminds Me of Watching the Jets” Award

  • Winner – Todd Gurley – 1 year, $6,000,000/ $35,885 ($DD/PT)
  • Runner Up – Ezekiel Elliott – 6 years $15,000,000/ $ 67,658 ($DD/PT)
  • Award meaning – The player you drafted that you cannot stand to watch.

Gurley – Was there a stranger story in football this season than Todd Gurley? The guy started out as an absolute touchdown machine with 9 in the first 9 games, only to not find the endzone the rest of the season, finishing with 9 total touchdowns. When you just look at the paper aspect of Gurley’s outlandish season it makes no sense, the fact that he was so efficient in the RedZone, yet the team was so bad and as soon as the team starts winning, he falls of a cliff.

Elliott – The runner-up Zeke did have a productive season finishing as the Rb9 overall, but when watching him he did not look like Zeke. In 2020 Elliot was flat out bad in the RedZone, had minimal explosive plays, had one game above 25 points, and had 6 games with 10 points or fewer. I am not saying he was not startable it just was not like watching the Zeke we are used too.

Midseason Winner – Ezekiel Elliott

The “JaMarcus Russel to David Blaine” Award

  • Winner – Jalen Reagor – 4 years, $3,317,669/ $37,872 ($DD/PT)
  • Runner Up – Michael Pittman – 4 years $2,153,212/ $21,771 ($DD/PT)
  • Award Meaning – The rookie that tends to disappear from games

Reagor – While this award pains me to the fullest extent for personal reasons, I still must write about it. I have both Reagor and Pittman on my team and am really counting on both in the coming years. The winner, Reagor has had a monumentally bad season compared to who the Eagles could have had in Justin Jefferson who went shortly after Reagor in the NFL draft. Reagor was hurt early in the season but even when healthy he failed to produce with his highest yardage total for a game being 55 yards, and that came on one catch. The TCU product also failed to catch more than 5 passes in any game this season, while some of that may have been on his quarterbacks, he is going to need to make a significant jump next season or Howie Roseman and Doug Pederson may be out the door.

Pittman – The runner up had a remarkably similar season to our winner except for Pittman’s big game against the Titans where he had 7 catches for 101 yards and a touchdown. Pittman is a promising prospect who was drafted early in the 2nd round so I expect him to bounce back.

Midseason Winner – Cam Akers

The “Atlanta Falcons” Award

  • Winner – Curtis Samuel – 1 year, $1,613,421/ $7,642 ($DD/PT)
  • Runner Up – Jonathon Taylor – 4 years, $1,957,287/ $7,476 ($DD/PT)
  • Award Meaning – A player who finished the season strong.

Samuel – You will find I have made a slight twist in this award from when it was the midseason award due to the Falcon’s recent play, in return the midseason winner will be left off. Curtis Samuel was quietly one of the most reliable fantasy receivers from week 7 on with 6 games over 17 points scored and only failing to score double digits twice. The most impressive part about Samuel’s run is that he was able to do it while only scoring 3 touchdowns meaning he was extremely involved in the game plan. If Samuel ends up leaving Carolina next season he could end up as a great dynasty asset for the future, as well as a great off season trade chip. I am not as high on Samuel returning to the Panthers with the team set to welcome fantasy superstar CMC back into the mix.

Taylor – The runner-up here got a lot of consideration to win the award for his strong finish, but Samuel was able to do it a few extra weeks as well as Samuel was not expected to be a every week starter this season as Taylor was.

The “2020 G.O.A.T.” Award

  • Winner – Davante Adams – 2 years – $14,500,000/ $40,570 ($DD/PT)
  • Runner Up – Alvin Kamara- 1 year – $964,443/ $2,538 ($DD/PT)
  • Award Meaning – The M.V.P.

Kamara – The runner-up Kamara had himself a season to brag about as well with 932 rushing yards 756 receiving yards and a massive 21 total touchdowns. Kamra popped off with a 6-touchdown performance for owners in the championship game which single handedly won him the 2020 G.O.A.T. award. Owners of Kamara also found themselves with an extreme bargain because of his cheap contract.

Adams – I do not know if there is enough time in the day to write about how dominant Adams truly is, even with an all-time great at quarterback. The teams Adams face know he is getting the ball especially in the red zone, yet no one has been able to stop him. Adams put together some extravagant numbers this season with 115 catches almost 1400 yards and 18 touchdowns and I will say it again teams knew he was the only receiver getting the ball. I really hope as football fans we get to see Adams and Rodgers for at least a few more seasons together they just keep getting better.

Midseason Winner – Russell Wilson

The “Butt Fumble” Award

  • Winner – Daniel Jones tripping himself instead of scoring
  • Runner Up – There can only be one!
  • Award Meaning – See 2020 Dynasty Owner Awards video.
Full video breakdown to article

Conclusion I hope everyone enjoys reading/watching these awards as much as I do enjoy writing them, it really is a lot of fun. I want to touch on something briefly before finishing and that is If you had fun with Dynasty Owner this season or the season before and you know people who would enjoy this format too please invite them and if you do not have the time to teach whoever it is please send them our way and we will be glad to help. The more Dynasty Owner grows the better it can become for all of us. I hope you all stay safe and good luck on your 2021 Chase for the Ring!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

League Winners and Playoff Predictions

By: Matt “TheJerk” Morrison (@DynastyJerk)

This is what we’ve all been waiting for.  The time has finally come.  We are officially in the Dynasty Owner Playoffs.  Some of you that are reading this have been eliminated from the playoffs and the Chase for the Ring, but there are also many teams who have grinded their way to a shot at the title.  If you have been eliminated, this article may still help you in the short term and here is why…

Don’t forget that the winner and runner up of the Loser’s Bracket receive a prize.  If you are victorious from the loser’s side of the bracket, you will receive a bonus draft pick that will be at the end of the 1st round of the 2021 rookie draft (Pick #13), and one Amnesty Provision.  The runner up in the Loser’s Bracket receives one Amnesty Provision.  The point is that if you have been eliminated from the overall top prize, don’t give up on the season until you have been eliminated from all prizes.

With the Dynasty Owner postseason starting, that means all trades and Free Agent Auction transactions have halted.  You are no longer able to improve your team through outside sources.  Everything that you do to change your team for the rest of the season will have to be internal.  For this reason, I will no longer be talking about trade targets, free agent finds, or under/over owned players.  All of these topics still matter for Dynasty Owner, but they won’t affect how you play for the remainder of the season.  Think about it this way…

We know that Dynasty Owner is the most realistic fantasy platform ever created.  We marry players to their real-life salaries and through that marriage, we can find value that otherwise doesn’t exist on other fantasy sites.  However, once our rosters are locked and we start the postseason, the salaries tend to matter less.  Now that we are entrenched in the playoffs, the best team is going to win their league.  The team with the best players that score the most points is going to win leagues.  It’s actually a very refreshing feeling (at least for me).  We spend all season trying to figure out value and which player’s salary can be moved or traded, but in the playoffs, all we have to worry about is setting our best lineup regardless of the salaries.  So today I present to you…

TheJerk’s League Winners

The League Winners are an assortment of five players that, in my opinion, are going to win Dynasty Owner’s their championship.  As I stated before, your roster is locked so there is no use in looking to trade for any of these players, but if you happen to find them on your roster, they should be started for the duration of your postseason run.

Justin Herbert (4-Years – $6,644,688/YR)

Herbert makes this list as somewhat of a “chalky” pick.  He is currently ranked QB9 on the season in Dynasty Owner, and he is on pace to smash Baker Mayfield’s rookie record of 27 touchdown passes.  He will also, no doubt, make a run for Andrew Luck’s rookie record of 4,374 passing yards.  (Herbert is on pace for 31 touchdown passes and 4,298 passing yards.)  Whether Justin ultimately takes down these records is still to be seen, but, as I stated, he has been just as impressive for Dynasty Owner managers who took a shot on him in the draft.  It’s not a secret that you are starting Herbert every week despite the matchup, but it is nice to know that he (statistically) has the easiest next three weeks of any quarterback in the league.  Let me break it down…

Herbert finishes his fantasy season by playing Atlanta (Week 14), Las Vegas (Week 15) and Denver (Week 16).  All three of these teams have been generous to opposing game managers throughout the season as they all rank bottom third in the NFL for fantasy points given up to quarterbacks.  Denver and Atlanta have been playing better defense as of late, but they are still able to be exploited by this rising young quarterback.  In addition, the game scripts for all three of these games should be in favor of Herbert.  Aside from last week, the Chargers have been very good at keeping games close.  In ten of their twelve games played, they have won or been within one score.  They do not get blown out very often.  In addition, the Falcons and Raiders have won or lost within one score in nine out out of their twelve games.  The Broncos have either won or lost within one score in eight out of their twelve games.  The point is…these next three games for the Chargers should be competitive, and they should be conducive to fantasy production by Herbert.

This is how confident I am in Herbert for your Championship run.  If you told me that I had to pick a single quarterback to start for the next three weeks, (I couldn’t switch him out with a bench quarterback) these are the only players I’d pick over Herbert…

  • Mahomes
  • Wilson
  • Rodgers

That’s the list.

There are quarterbacks I like over Herbert for individual matchups (D. Watson vs Cincinnati in Week 16 for example), but only three that I would take for the remainder of the season.  Despite his last two weeks being two of the worst three weeks of his season, he needs to be started in almost all playoff matchups.  The bold prediction for Herbert is…

Justin Herbert’s Final Three Games:

  • 967 passing yards – 2 INT – 8 passing touchdowns
  • 60 rushing yards – 1 rushing touchdown

Derrick Henry (1-Year – $10,278,000)

Okay, yes, I know that this is an absolute no brainer, but hear me out.  Derrick Henry is going to win a lot of people fantasy championships this year, but he’s also going to do a lot more than that.  Henry is going to be the #1 running back over the next three weeks by a good amount.  Here is where King Henry sits after Week 13…

He is the RB3 on the season for Dynasty Owner.  He trails only Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara.  Henry has 286 touches for 1,419 total yards with 12 touchdowns.  He has four multi score games this season, and I expect that number to rise.  First, I’ll give you Henry’s next three matchups, and then I’ll drop a bold prediction about how he’s going to finish the season.  Henry has the “easiest” next three weeks of any player in the NFL.  When I say easiest, I don’t presume to say that what Henry does is easy.  What I’m saying is that the next three teams he’s playing are all in the bottom fourth of fantasy points given up to opposing running backs.  Henry is about to play Jacksonville (Week 14), Detroit (Week 15), and Green Bay (Week 16).  That is as good as it gets.  For reference, here is what each team has given up on the ground over the past three weeks.

  • Jacksonville: 153 rushing yards/game
  • Detroit: 111 rushing yards/game
  • Green Bay:  126 rushing yards/game

There will be many opportunities for long runs for Henry during these playoffs.  The Titans rank fourth in the NFL in rushing percentage per play at 48.39%.  Henry is an absolute smash play for the rest of the season, and here is my bold prediction on his stat line.

Derrick Henry’s Final Three Games:

  • 68 rushes – 399 total yards – 7 touchdowns

That prediction puts him at 27.3 fantasy points per game, and I think it’s very possible.  Start Henry with confidence and pray that you don’t face the owner that has him.

David Montgomery (4-Years – $1,003,845/YR)

Montgomery has had a high floor, low ceiling season up until Week 12 and 13.  Through his first nine games he averaged 12.2 fantasy points per game.  In those nine games, his lowest performance was 4.2 points, and his highest was 21.7.  Every other game he played in he was somewhere between 7.4 and 18.9 fantasy points.  He has been very reliable.  Well, following Chicago’s Week 11 bye, Montgomery has come out and put up back-to-back 27-point performances.  He is peaking at the perfect time if you own him, and his schedule remains easy throughout Week 17.  Montgomery does not have a “Derrick Henry Cake Walk Schedule”, but he is facing a couple of the most favorable matchups possible.  He is slated to face Houston (Week 14), Minnesota (Week 15), and Jacksonville (Week 16).  I’m not going to go through the whole breakdown like I did with Henry, but none of these three matchups should scare Montgomery owners.  Houston and Jacksonville should be extremely comfortable for Montgomery owners.  Minnesota has been better lately, but they are still a bottom half rush defense.  Montgomery’s production isn’t what worries me.  What I’m concerned about is the chance that Chicago gets down early in a least a couple of these games and abandons the rush.  Even with that possibility, Montgomery has pulled in nine receptions over the past two games.  He should without a doubt be started in all leagues.  Bold predictions for Montgomery…

David Montgomery’s Final Three Games:

  • 52 rushes – 285 total yards – 4 touchdowns

Tee Higgins (4-Years – $2,171,696/YR)

Finally, we have made it to a little deeper of a pick.  Higgins is probably not the first player you would think of when considering a league winning wide receiver.  And let me be clear, I’m not claiming that Higgins is going to jump to Hill or Adams’ type production.  He is on a much less powerful offense than those two players, and he has lost his starting quarterback (Joe Burrow) for the season.  The knee injury that Burrow sustained in Week 12 was very unfortunate to not only the Bengals as a whole, but also to Higgins.  The type of quarterback play that Burrow was displaying is unable to be matched by Brandon Allen, but that’s not to say his receivers can’t be valuable.

Tee Higgins is the WR 28 on the season.  He is averaging just under five receptions and 66 yards per game.  He has also added five touchdowns.  This is a modest stat line for sure, but he has averaged 13.9 fantasy points per game.  This is a very respectable total for a rookie and one that is, frankly, getting overlooked.  Higgins now enters the last three games of the fantasy season with three very tempting matchups.  The Bengals will face Dallas (Week 14), Pittsburgh (Week 15) and Houston (Week 16).  Not only are each of these matchups above average for wide receiver fantasy points (maybe excluding the Steelers), but the game scripts for each game should be equally as good.  My prediction is that Cincinnati finds themselves trailing in all three games, and they may be trailing by quite a bit.  The Bengals are going to have to pass, and they are going to do it a lot.  While I don’t see Higgins as a better receiver than Tyler Boyd (yet), Higgins has kept pace with Boyd’s receptions over the past two weeks.  If you are looking for a rock bottom floor of 10 fantasy points and a ceiling of 25 fantasy points, Higgins is as reliable as you’ll find.  Bold prediction time…

Tee Higgins’ Final Three Games:

  • 17 receptions – 220 total yards – 2 touchdowns

Mike Gesicki (4-Years – $1,652,981/YR)

And now for the final player in our League Winners.  Here is a tight end that I touted all throughout the off season.  I targeted him in every league that I drafted in (including Dynasty Owner), and I was actually able to acquire him in my BETA league draft.  Mike Gesicki is one of the top three most athletic tight ends in the league, but he hasn’t received the volume that fantasy managers would have liked to see.  I don’t think it’s too harsh to say that Gesicki has had a disappointing season so far.  39 receptions through Week 13 is not what Owners expected.  Regardless, he has shown the ability to have league winning games.  In Week 2, Gesicki put up 8-130-1.  In Week 13, he put up 9-88-1.  As I said, Gesicki has shown that he is able to produce dominant fantasy weeks when given the right opportunity, and I think he will be relied on more throughout the next three games.  While none of Gesicki’s remaining matches is particularly favorable for tight end production, I do believe he will have a positive game script in those games.  Miami plays Kansas City (Week 14), New England (Week 15) and Las Vegas (Week 16).  Miami is expected to be losing or, at the very least, keep the game close in all three.  I look for Gesicki to lead the Dolphins in receptions and receiving yards over the fantasy playoffs.  Bold Prediction:

Mike Gesicki’s Final Three Games:

  • 19 receptions – 202 receiving yards – 2 touchdowns

If Mike is able to put up this stat line, he would be averaging 17 fantasy points per game, and would be well above the average tight end production for the season.

Final Thoughts

I want to finish by saying good luck to everyone this week.  Remember, no one has been eliminated from a prize yet.  You may want to give up because you are no longer competing for the Championship, but there is still work to be done.  An extra pick or an Amnesty Provision will go a long way towards rebuilding for next year.  As always, take care and be safe.

-TheJerk

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

2020 Rookie Check Up

Author: Chris Wolf (@CKWolf21)

As Dynasty players, we are obsessed with potential. We measure it in college performance, breakout age, workout measurables, draft stock and finally – usage. Let’s take a quick look at where some notable rookies have progressed from draft to training camp(ish) to actual gameday usage. Their stats through two weeks are listed below their names.

Joe Burrow – QB – CIN ($9.05M)

  • 509 Pass Yards
  • 3 TDs
  • 1 INT
  • 65 Rush Yards
  • 1 TD

Burrow has been running for his life behind a seemingly annual disappointment of an offensive line. A lesser rookie QB may have fared much worse with what he’s had to work with, but Burrow is an elite competitor. His pocket presence is miles ahead of where most rookies would be, and he has thus far proven that he has the ability to place the ball into tight windows of coverage.

His 97 attempts through two weeks is absolutely insane but their ground game’s ineptitude has led to Burrow putting the games on his back. He and A.J. Green look like they are worlds apart right now in the chemistry department, but he has shown a solid rapport with Tyler Boyd and his tight ends.

Justin Herbert – QB – LAC ($6.64M)

  • 311 Pass Yards
  • 1 TD
  • 1 INT
  • 18 Rush Yards
  • 1 TD

Herbert did not get into the game week 1 but we were able to get a glimpse of his talent this past Sunday. It was one of the strangest Sunday’s in recent memory so why not throw a rookie QB in against the reigning Super Bowl champs on a moment’s notice? The Chargers “leaned” on their impressive run game, but they did not shy away from calling the promising rookie’s number when they needed him.

His 33 pass attempts resulted in 22 completions, 1 passing score and an ill-advised INT that was thrown across his body. It was a solid debut for the big-armed rookie that hasn’t even taken reps with the first team offense.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire – RB – KC ($2.7M)

  • 176 Rush Yards
  • 1 TD
  • 6 Receptions
  • 32 Yards

CEH put on an absolute show on opening night against the Texans rushing 25 times for 138 yards and one TD. He usage shifted towards the receiving game in week two against the Chargers aggressive front. He saw 8 targets in week 2 compared to just 2 in week one. This was a likely mixture of Darrel Williams exiting the game and Mahomes playing mostly hurry-up in the second half. He will see better days on the ground but probably after next week when they clash with the Ravens.

Jonathan Taylor – RB – IND ($1.96M)

  • 123 Rush Yards
  • 1 TD
  • 8 Receptions
  • 76 Receiving Yards

Taylor was immediately put to test when Marlon Mack went down early in week one. He didn’t find much room to run against an underrated Jacksonville front seven, but he was able to secure all 6 of his targets for 67 yards. Week 2’s performance with 28 touches showed that he is the every down back that he was billed to be. He completely dominated the touches over Nyheim Hines (28-1) and he is locked into the RB1 situation for the rest of the season.

James Robinson – RB – JAX ($763K)

  • 164 Rush Yards
  • 1 TD
  • 4 Receptions
  • 46 Receiving Yards

Of course, we knew that at this point, James Robinson would have more rushing yards than Jonathan Taylor. With back to back games of exactly 16 carries each, Robinson has been given the workhorse role in this new look Jaguars offense. With 35 total touches through two weeks, he provides the usage you are looking for on your Dynasty Owner team to be a competent RB2 or Flex. The only true concern is game script going forward since the Jags figure to be playing catch up quite a bit in 2020.

J.K. Dobbins – RB – BAL ($1.4M)

  • 70 Rush Yards
  • 2 TDs
  • 1 Reception
  • 13 Receiving Yards

This one is a bit maddening. It would be scary if the Ravens unleashed Dobbins but this three headed monster that they have as a backfield rotation will truly limit his potential until he’s needed to take over a game. In week 1 he scored twice on seven touches. In week 2 he ran for 48 yards on only two carries and caught his only target for 13 yards. You can only hope that Baltimore is keeping their prized rookie fresh for the long haul but man, the possibilities in this offense.

Jerry Jeudy – WR- DEN ($3.79M)

  • 8 Receptions
  • 15 Targets
  • 118 Yards
  • 0 TDs

Jeudy has recorded 4 receptions in each of his first two games and has seen a team-high 15 targets. The targets should remain the same with Courtland Sutton now being out for the season. With Jeff Driskel stepping in for Drew Lock (shoulder), Jeudy’s usage did not take a hit. He and Noah Fant are destined to be the go-to recipients when the Broncos have to throw the ball. In this run-first offense, expectations should be tempered for Jeudy, but he is now the unquestioned WR1 on his team.

CeeDee Lamb – WR – DAL ($3.5M)

  • 11 Receptions
  • 15 Targets
  • 165 Yards
  • 0 TDs

Lamb looks like a true #1 receiver on a team that already has two #1 receivers. His physicality and body control are just ridiculous for someone at this stage of their professional career. His 9.7 yards after catch in week two demonstrates just how physical the former Oklahoma Sooner really is. He will maintain his role in the slot and his snaps are sure to keep increasing due to the loss of Blake Jarwin from week 1. You can safely play him as a solid flex option in this high-powered offense.

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Salary Cap Room for Draft Picks

Author: Steven Van Tassell

One great question that keeps coming up is – “How much salary cap room do I need to have for draft picks?”  The short answer is: “It depends”. That answer isn’t very helpful so it’s time to dive into some 2020 draft pick research, look back at last year’s draft, and give a (somewhat) better answer to that question for all of our Dynasty Owners.

Unless you traded away all three of your 2020 Dynasty Owner draft picks, you’ll need a minimum of three roster spots and $1.53 million in salary cap room. That will get your Dynasty Owner team three rookies on minimum salary contracts of $510,000 in 2020 to add to your team’s roster. Depending on your situation, your team could need more cap room and roster spots if you traded for a draft pick and less if you traded away a draft pick.

However, say you wanted the top three picks in the NFL draft and skill position players (QB, RB, WR, TE) were selected as the top three players, your Dynasty Owner team would need almost $26.4 million in salary cap room. The 2020 rookie salary for the top pick will be $9.154 million, it’s $8.735 million for the second pick and $8.469 million for the third pick. That’s a total of $26.36 million, or $24.83 million more than the minimum.

Let’s take a look at some realistic scenarios based on current mock draft projections. We’ll use NFL.com as our source for projections of when players will be drafted (http://www.nfl.com/draft/2020/mock-drafts). After that, we’ll check out some “real world” examples from 2019.

2020 NFL Mock Draft Projections

While it is possible for a Dynasty Owner to draft the top three skill position players in their Dynasty Owner rookie draft, based on current projections, you’d be adding three QBs to your roster. Joe Burrow is projected as the #1 pick and either Tau Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert are projected to go as the #5 and #6 picks – depending on which mock draft expert you believe. If you don’t need three QBs, then you’ll likely be spending less than the $26.36 million.

Based on the Spotrac NFL draft tracker (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/draft/round-1/), those three players will probably be paid the following amounts at the listed mock draft selection spot:

  • Joe Burrow (#1 pick) – $9.154 million
  • Tua Tagovailoa (#5 pick) – $7.631 million
  • Justin Herbert (#6 pick) – $6.68 million

In total, that’s $23.465 million if you grabbed the top three skill position players likely to be drafted in the 2020 NFL draft. However, since very few Dynasty Owner teams probably need (or want) three rookie QBs, it seems that $23.5 million in cap room is really the highest possible amount that Dynasty Owners need to have available to draft rookies. More likely, the best that a Dynasty Owner will do is be able to draft the top QB, RB and WR.

Based on the mock drafts, the following players are projected as the top position players taken in the 2020 draft:

  • Joe Burrow (#1 pick) – $9.154 million
  • Ceedee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy (#11 pick) – $4.586 million
  • D’Andre Swift (#26 pick) – $3.025 million

The top QB, RB and WR are likely to cost a Dynasty Owner around $6.7 million less than the three QBs as the total for Burrow, Lamb/Jeudy and Swift is projected at $16.766 million. In reality, that’s the upper range a Dynasty Owner should keep on hand after the amnesty period is over to give himself room to draft three top rookies. So, unless everyone in your Dynasty Owner league is close against the salary cap, someone is likely to have enough room to take one of those top guys, so most Dynasty Owners can get away with less than the nearly $17 million mentioned above.

Examples from 2019 to Emulate for Your 2020 Cap Floor

For Dynasty Owners who like their team, but still have three draft picks and don’t want to restrict themselves to all rookies on minimum contracts, what’s a reasonable floor of salary cap space that you should have on hand?  Since about 10 skill positions are projected (on average) to be drafted in the first round, you could in theory draft a first round NFL draft pick (think WR N’Keal Harry who was the 32nd pick in the 2019 NFL draft), a mid-second or third round pick (one of the several WRs taken in that range in 2019 include A.J. Brown, Mecole Hardman, Parris Campbell, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside or RB Miles Sanders) and a fifth, sixth or seventh round pick (such as Hunter Renfrow, Darius Slayton, Gardner Minshew or Darwin Thompson). The most expensive of these grouping would have cost you only about $4.65 million in 2019, so to be safe, you’d need $5 million of salary cap room in 2020 to get the following players (# draft pick):

  • N’Keal Harry (First Round – #32 pick) – $2.525 million
  • A.J. Brown (Second Round – #51 pick) – $1.413 million
  • Hunter Renfrow (Fifth Round – #149 pick) – $708,987

While that’s three WRs, it’s still not a bad draft haul for less than $5 million. If you took one guy from three different positions, say Minshew at QB (sixth round), Josh Jacobs at RB (first round) and D.K. Metcalf at WR (second round), you would have spent a little bit more ($4.81 million):

  • Josh Jacobs (First Round – #24 pick) – $2.983 million
  • D.K. Metcalf (Second Round – #64 pick) – $1.146 million
  • Gardner Minshew II (Sixth Round – #178 pick) – $677,721

Without running more scenarios, it appears that $5 million is a good amount to have on hand to get a nice haul of rookies. It can be done for less if you need to and are able to mine the draft for some quality late round picks. A good draft last year would have been possible for only $2.533 million and netted a Dynasty Owner the following players:

  • D.K. Metcalf (Second Round – #64 pick) – $1.146 million
  • Hunter Renfrow (Fifth Round – #149 pick) – $708,987
  • Gardner Minshew II (Sixth Round – #178 pick) – $677,721

The 2020 salaries will be slightly higher, and the picks won’t be the exact same selections, but based on these results, it looks possible to have a good 2020 Dynasty Owner draft for around $2.5 to $3 million.

Conclusions

It depends is actually the correct answer here as, everything depends on your roster and draft picks stash. If you need more good players and have cleared enough salary cap room and others in your league are cap strapped, then you could pick up three of the top skill position players taken in the 2020 NFL draft. You’ll possibly need as much as $26.4 million, but more realistically about $16.8 million.

It’s possible to have a great draft for less – just look at 2019 when a savvy Dynasty Owner could have picked three quality players up for as little as $2.533 to $4.81 million. That’s more like $3 million to $5 million in 2020 draft salaries, but it shows any amount can be the “right” amount of salary cap room. Don’t forget about all of the great Dynasty Owner specific podcasts you can listen to and watch. The YouTube Live podcast from last Thursday with special guest Christopher Harris and the one from the previous Friday were really great and highly recommended. We also have message board debates and Twitter posts that you can check out.  All of this great content is available to help you win your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!  After all, what else do you have to do now!

Steven Van Tassell is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner.

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner