By: Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl)
Dynasty Owners, welcome back to my second article in as many weeks! It must mean free agency and the dynasty fantasy football seasons are now in full swing. If you happened to read any of my articles during last off-season, you will know my main piece of advice for free agency is to stay patient throughout the process because 30 days is a lot of time. Outside of making trades and picking up a select few free agents, I tend to sit back and wait for things to calm down before making any decisions this time of year and it has always worked out for the better. The main reason I preach patience this time of year is because I have seen several players dropped over the years and I know the Dynasty Owner ended up regretting it pretty quickly as they could have acquired draft capital and/or players versus dropping the player for nothing. With that said, be sure to watch who your league mates drop as it’s very likely you will find a productive player in the Free Agent Auction this time of year. I hope all of you have a great free agency and feel free to reach out with any questions you may have.
In today’s article I am going to focus on what rebuilding Dynasty Owners should do with these 10 new contracts that have recently been signed. While I haven’t seen any true stars sign just yet, I do see several names who can contribute on a weekly basis below. Steve and I did touch on several of these players during last week’s Dynasty Owner podcast. Be sure to check it out if you would like to hear more in-depth analysis. If you are rebuilding and happen to roster any of these players, please let me know how you are handling their new contract via Twitter.
Quarterback
- Geno Smith (SEA) – 3 years/$75,000,000 ($25,000,000 per year)
What to do with Geno Smith? I am not sure if the football gods know this answer unless Pete Carroll qualifies as a football god. Geno had a fantastic season in 2022, but we have seen one-year wonders at the quarterback position several times. I am looking at you Case Keenum ($3,125,000)! In my opinion, Geno is a risky player to keep for contenders without cutting important pieces, but I believe he is a must hold for all rebuilding users, especially if you are able to keep an Amnesty Provision handy. If Geno comes out and replicates his success from 2022, he should be fairly easy to trade for a nice draft pick and a bad contract. If Geno does not work out the Amnesty Provision will come into play.
- Jimmy Garoppolo (LV) – 3 years/$72,750,000 ($24,250,000 per year)
I feel rebuilding Dynasty Owners have two clear options for Jimmy Garoppolo and that is to trade or cut him. Please allow me to explain. Over the past six seasons in San Francisco, Garoppolo has played in the most quarterback friendly system in the NFL and he was never an elite fantasy option during any of those seasons, has never thrown for more than 4,000 yards in a season despite having good weapons around him and has a terrible injury history. Garoppolo’s contract is not terrible which may allow for a trade, but I would not expect much in return with the mess he is entering into in Vegas. Garopollo was outplayed by seventh round rookie Brock Purdy ($934,252) last season which is a huge warning sign that Jimmy is going to struggle after leaving Kyle Shanahan.
Running Back
- Miles Sanders (CAR) – 4 years/$25,400,000 ($6,350,000 per year)
In all honesty I can’t think of a better landing spot than Carolina for Miles Sanders. I know some would have preferred him to stay in Philadelphia where he is comfortable, but I believe he will be utilized much more in Carolina, especially in the receiving game. Sanders will play for coach Frank Reich who seems to love utilizing his running backs in the passing game and Sanders has the skill set to thrive in this system. The only real worry for me is the downgrade in offensive line play, but I think the number of touches Sanders is in line to get will offset that. With all of that said, rebuilding Dynasty Owners should hold Sanders until Week 3 or 4 and trade him after he performs well and the worry is gone, though you may be able to use this info to get good value now! I would look for a first round rookie draft pick for Sanders if possible. Remind your trade partner how hard it is to find a workhorse running back, which is exactly what Sanders will be for the Panthers.
- David Montgomery (DET) – 3 years/$18,000,000 ($6,000,000 per year)
I tend to tell rebuilding Dynasty Owners to trade running backs heading into their second contract and while that time will come for Montgomery, it is not right now. Montgomery finds himself in a great offense for fantasy running backs where Jamaal Williams ($4,000,000) rushed for a whopping 17 touchdowns last season. Having D’Andre Swift ($2,134,728) in the same running back room is worrisome, but I have seen enough to know Swift will likely never get a massive workload for a full season. I fully expect Montgomery to see almost all of the red zone work and receive more touches overall in 2023 than Swift. At some point this season, Swift will likely get banged up and when he does rebuilding owners should put Montgomery on the block and demand as much as possible for him.
- Rashaad Penny (PHI) – 1 year/$1,350,000
I don’t know what is wrong with me today, but we have our third running back hold of the day! Hear me out on this one as it may be controversial because of Penny’s injury history. It is extremely likely that anyone who with Penny on their Dynasty Owner roster did not spend much to get him, and it is because of that I am telling you to hold Penny. When Penny has been on the field, he has been elite in the yards per carry (ypc) category, sitting at 5.7 ypc for his entire career. If Penny is able to stay healthy (a big “if” I know) and play at least 12 games behind one of the NFL’S best offensive lines, he could easily become a top 5 running back and should net a ton of value in a trade. At worst, Penny gets injured and you’re out very little. All of that said if someone offers you a good deal for Penny this off-season, you have to at least consider it. I would not sell cheap though.
Wide Receiver
- Jakobi Meyers (LV) – 3 years/$33,000,000 ($11,000,000 per year)
Our second Las Vegas Raider of the day and our second Las Vegas Raider signing that just does not make much sense. We will save all of that for another day. Meyers has been a very consistent player throughout his career and finally started to see success in the red zone in 2022 with 6 touchdowns, but the move to a new team worries me quite a bit. Meyers heads to a team with a true number 1 receiver who is dominant in the red zone, an aging, injury-prone quarterback, and a roster that did not look very good in 2022. In New England, Meyers was arguably the number 1 target and was guaranteed to see a good amount of action. As far as rebuilding Dynasty Owners are concerned, I would likely hold Meyers and see what happens as I don’t see anyone giving up much to acquire him right now. It is a real possibility that Meyers beats out Hunter Renfrow ($16,164,500) to become the number 2 receiver in Vegas which will hopefully raise his trade value.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE) – 3 years/$25,500,000 ($8,500,000 per year)
As a Steelers fan, I have a lot of love for JuJu Smith-Schuster, but I believe it is time for rebuilding users to move on from the veteran wide receiver. JuJu did not sign a huge contract by any means after a good 2022 season in Kansas City with the best quarterback in football, not Mac Jones ($3,896,588) in the New England weather. I am expecting JuJu to put up similar numbers to the player above him who he is replacing in the Patriots’ offense and I just don’t think that is worth $8,500,000 on a rebuilding roster. I don’t see JuJu bringing back a ton of value in a trade but if you can get a second round rookie draft pick from someone who is contending while freeing up cap space on your roster, I would do it in a heartbeat.
- Adam Thielen (CAR) – 3 years/$25,000,000 ($8,333,333 per year)
I haven’t talked all that well about Thielen over the past year and despite a big decrease in salary, it is still time for rebuilding Dynasty Owners to get what they can and run. Outside of red zone production, Thielen has been a very average receiver over the past two seasons, and I am not counting on that red zone production continuing in Carolina at 32 years old and no Justin Jefferson ($3,280,701) on the opposite side. I do believe there is value to be had in a trade for Thielen as someone will get the idea that he is going to be the number 1 guy in Carolina and while he may be on the depth chart, I am not expecting it to show up on the field. I have thought hard about what value to put on Thielen, and I have no true answer. It will solely be up to your negotiating skills and your trade partner. The best bet may be to hold him until after the NFL Draft when he is paired with the number 1 overall pick in 2023.
Tight End
- Hayden Hurst (CAR) – 3 years/$21,750,000 ($7,250,000 per year)
Up next, we have our second Carolina Panther in a row, Hayden Hurst. Hurst has performed well out of the tight end spot in both Atlanta and Cincinnati and while I am not expecting him to replicate his 2022 season by any means, I do believe he will be serviceable, though it does come with a price of $7,250,000. As I mentioned earlier with Frank Reich and the running backs in the passing game, the same rings true for the tight end position and I am expecting Hurst to be a safety net for whichever young quarterback the Panthers’ draft. The problem with all of this is that it does not fit well on a rebuilding roster, yet you won’t get much for him in a trade. I believe the best course of action is to hold Hurst and see how things play out in a tight end friendly system and go from there. Hurst is on a 3-year deal, so you have plenty of time to be patient if you don’t mind the drop fee if he happens to struggle.
- Mike Gesicki (NE) – 1 year/$4,500,000
I cannot wait to hear Steve Van Tassell’s thoughts on this signing in the next podcast. Steve has been a notorious Gesicki enthusiast and I am expecting he is thrilled! All jokes aside, Bill Belichick has spoken very highly of Gesicki over the years, and I am intrigued to see how he is utilized. Then again, The Hoodie said the same about Jonnu Smith ($12,500,000). Gesicki has been hit or miss throughout his career and I am expecting the same in New England. Expect a lot of two tight end sets and I believe we will see Gesicki line up at receiver throughout the season. At just $4,500,000, I believe Gesicki is a firm hold for all Dynasty Owners unless offered a 2nd round pick or a good player with a better future outlook.
Thank you all for reading and be sure to check out all of the upcoming Dynasty Owner content. We have the Dynasty Owner podcast, the Dynasty Owner Livestream, and articles to help with your Dynasty Owner teams. Good luck on your 2023 Chase for the Ring!